Thursday, October 13, 2016

The FAC Update for Major Oscar Categories / Foreign Language Films Reach Record / Tapley Assesses the Best Actress Race

Good Thursday friends...


I posted the first set of Film Awards Clearinghouse predictions for the four most major Oscar categories three weeks ago.  Now, 21 days later and with the New York Film Festival winding down, I thought it would be good to update where the race seems to be.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

The number in parenthesis is the position the film held three weeks ago.

TFF #43 films are in Bold.


1) La La Land (1)
2) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Fences (5)
5) Moonlight (8)
6) Silence (4)
7) Lion (6)
8) Jackie (10)
9) Arrival (9)
10) Loving (9)
11) Sully (11)
12) 20th Century Women (NR)

Dropping Out: Hidden Figures
Hot: Moonlight, Jackie, 20th Century Women
Not: Silence, Loving
Comment: Barry Jenkins' Moonlight is the biggest mover of any film in either direction.  If the nominations were announced today, it has moved from "barely probable" to a much more solid position.  La La Land has actually solidified its grasp of the top spot.  Call the top eight films "likely" nominees with the 9-12 spots as possibles.


1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Ang Lee/Billy Lynn (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (4)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (3)
5) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (5)

6) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (10)
7) Denzel Washington/Fences (6)
8) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (8)
9) Garth Davis/Lion (9)
10) Jeff Nichols/Loving (7)

Hot: Larrain
Not: Nichols
Comment:  No switch outs among the top ten but a big charge for Pablo Larrain.  Larrain could also be a nominee for Best Foreign Language Film for Neruda and I don't think that has ever happened in Oscar history (see below)


1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (3)
3) Viola Davis/Fences (2)
4) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
5) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)

6) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
7) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
8) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Amy Adams/Nocturnal Animals (NR)

Dropping Out: Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train
Hot: Bening
Not: Blunt
Comment:  Still thought to be the toughest category.  Viola Davis continues to be rumored as a possible candidate for Supporting Actress instead of lead.


1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (5)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (4)

6) Dev Patel/Lion (7)
7) Andrew Garfield/Silence (6)
8) Michael Keaton/The Founder (8)
9) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (NR)
10) (Tie) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR) and
Ben Affleck/Live by Night (NR)

Dropping Out: Gordon-Levitt/Snowden and Alwyn/Billy Lynn
Hot: Gyllenhaal and B. Affleck as well as Mortensen
Not: See the "dropping Out" list above.
Comment:  This looks like a real race between Casey and Denzel.  It's the tightest bunching of the top two from any of these categories.

Should these predictions hold for TFF #43 films...

La La Land would be nominated in all four categories.
Manchester by the Sea in three.
Moonlight in two.
Sully in one.

Other possibles: Arrival for three and Sully for an additional nomination.

Also, not to put too fine a point on it, TFF #43 films would win in all four categories.


A record number of 85 films have been submitted for Oscar consideration for the Foreign Language category.  Included in the submissions were these Telluride 2016 films:

Toni Erdmann/Germany
Fire at Sea/Italy

Other major players include films that I thought, at least at some point, might play Telluride:

It's Only the End of the World/Canada
The Salesman/Iran
Sand Storm/Israel
Ma' Rosa/Philippines
My Life as a Zucchini/Switzerland

Here's coverage of the 85 film list from Variety, Awards Daily, The Hollywood Reporter, and The Playlist.


Variety awards co-editor and founder of InContention, Kristopher Tapley posted a meditation this week on this year's Best Actress Oscar race.  as I mentioned above, it's regarded as one of the toughest races in years.  As you can see above, there are a number of TFF #43 actresses in the conversation: Stone and Adams.  Isabelle Huppert is also mentioned for Things to Come in addition to Elle and we shouldn't rule out Rooney Mara for Una.

Take a look at Tapley's analysis here.

That's a wrap for this Thursday.  More to come on Monday.  Have a fantastic weekend everyone.


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