More Predicted Oscar Winners from The FAC / Oscar Nominees for Cinematography and Film Editing / Big Talk from Directors / Could We See TONY Erdmann at a Future Telluride?

Welcome to Thursday...

MORE PREDICTED OSCAR WINNERS FROM THE FAC

On Monday, The FAC took its first stab at predicting the winners of the Oscar in 12 categories.  In today's post I continue down that road with a look at six additional categories: Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.



As always The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Telluride #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land
2) Moonlight
3) Lion
4) Jackie
5) Passengers

Comment:  Looks like La La's to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana
3) Audition/La La Land
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls
5) The Empty Chair/Jim: The James Foley Story

Comment: I still think the Moana song could win this despite The FAC metric.


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land
2) Arrival
3) Fantastic Beasts
4) Hail. Caesar
5) Passengers

Comment: La La Land seems to be the prohibitive favorite.


BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) La La Land
3) Arrival
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Sully

Comment:  This category could tell the tale in as far as La La Land's quest to tie or break the record for most Oscar wins ever.  The record is 11.   La La is nominated for 14 but at the maximum can only win 13 because of the double Best Song nominations.  Hacksaw is a solid favorite but certainly doesn't have a lock on the trophy.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Arrival
4) Rogue One
5) 13 Hours

Comment;  Back to solid La La Land ground here.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Kubo and the Two Strings

Comment:  Looks solid for Jungle Book.


In these six categories La La Land is leading for four Oscars and Hacksaw Ridge and The Jungle Book would get one each.  Added to Monday's totals, The FAC has La La Land at eight wins with Moonlight at two and Fences at two.   Manchester by the Sea would be the other TFF #43 film with a win.

I'll have The FAC's look at the final six categories on Monday.



OSCARS NOMINEES FOR CINEMATOGRAPHY AND FILM EDITING

Here are a couple pf profiles of the cinematographers from La La Land and Moonlight both of whom are Oscar nominated for their work:

About DP Linus Sandgren of La La Land from Indiewire.

And focusing on editor Joi McMillon who cut Moonlight also from Indiewire.



BIG TALK FROM DIRECTORS (FOUR FROM TFF #43)



The Film Stage posted a 2 and 1/2 hour round table of this year's DGA nominees: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve who were featured at TFF #43 as well as Garth Davis of Lion.  That massive discussion can be found  Here from YouTube:

The Film Stage post is here.




AND FINALLY...COULD WE SEE TONY ERDMANN AT A FUTURE TELLURIDE? (yes, I spelled it Ton-y on purpose because I'll bet they Americanize it that way)

Image via ComingSoon.net

Breaking news the last two days:  There will apparently be an American remake of Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann to star Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig.  Reports say the project is at Paramount and is looking for a writer and director.

You have to wonder if a film that will almost certainly be Nicholson;s last major role might not be considered for a spot at T-ride which would be both weird and kind of fitting as the original Toni Erdmann screened for the first time in North America at last fall's soiree.

Lots of coverage here for the announcement of the new version:

Variety,  The Film Stage  and Hollywood Elsewhere.





EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Final Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) for Oscar #89 / Final Predictions from Oscar Experts

Hello Monday...Tomorrow brings the nominations for the 89th Academy Awards.  The FAC Final is here for you.

Below are the final computations for the Film Awards Clearinghouse for 2016.  Some reminders...

I think this my ninth year to attempt some level of this and I have found that The FAC metric will be somewhere between 75-80% accurate today.  In categories that The FAC misses going 5 for 5, about 75% of the time, the nominee that "steals" the spot is the #6 ranked film/performer.  The most troubling categories seem to always be the Short form films as well as Original Score and Song.


THE FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

As always, I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.



BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Lion (6)
6) Hell or High Water (5)
7) Hidden Figures (8)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (7)

9) Fences (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (10)
11) Silence (11)
12) Loving (12)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (3)
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (4)
5) Garth Davis/Lion (5)

6) Martin Scorsese/Silence (8)
7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (7)
8) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
9) Denzel Washington/Fences (9)
10) Tom Ford/Nocturnal Animals (NR)


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (3)
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (4)

6) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (7)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (10)
10) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (4)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Capt. Fantastic (5)

6) Joel Edgerton/Loving (7)
7) Tom Hanks/Sully (6)
8) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Sunny Pawar/Lion (NR)
10) Andrew Garfield/Silence (8)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (10)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester (5)

6) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (9)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
9) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (8)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight (1)
2) Arrival (2)
3) Hidden Figures (5)
4) Lion (4)
5) Fences (3)

6) Nocturnal Animals (6)
7) Loving (7)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (8)
9) Silence (9)
10) Deadpool (10)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Hell or High Water (3)
4) The Lobster (4)
5) Captain Fantastic (6)

6) 20th Century Women (5)
7) Zootopia (8)
8) Jackie (7)
9) I, Daniel Blake (9)
10) Toni Erdmann (NR)



FILM EDITING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5)
5) Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)



CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Toni Erdmann (1)
2) Land of Mine (3)
3) The Salesman (2)
4) A Man Called Ove (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Tanna (6)
7) Paradise (7)
8) It's Only the End of the World (8)
9) The King's Choice (9)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia (1)
2) Kubo and the Two Strings (2)
3) Moana (3)
4) The Red Turtle (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Finding Dory (6)
7) Miss Hoksauki (7)
8) Sing (9)
9) The Little Prince (8)
10) Your Name (10)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) OJ: Made in America (1)
2) 13th (2)
3) I Am Not Your Negro (3)
4) Cameraperson (5)
5) Life Animated (8)

6) Weiner (4)
7) Fire at Sea (6)
8) Gleason (7)
9) The Ivory Game (9)
10) Tower (NR)



ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (3)
3) Lion (2)
4) The BFG (4)
5) Jackie (5)

6) Rogue One (6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
9) Kubo and the Two Strings (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (8)

ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land (1)
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana (3)
3) Audition/ La La Land (2)
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls (4)
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street (5)

6) Runnin'/Hidden Figures (7)
7) Faith/Sing (NR)
8) Rules Don't Apply/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
9) Letter to the Free/13th (10)
10) I'm Still Here/Miss Sharon Jones (9)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land (1)
2) Fantastic Beasts And Where to Find Them (4)
3) Arrival (5)
4) Jackie (2)
5) Silence (3)

6) Hail, Caesar (NR)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) The Handmaiden (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
10) Rogue One (8)


BEST COSTUMES

1) Jackie (1)
2) Florence Foster Jenkins (3)
3) La La Land (2)
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5) Allied (7)

6) The Dressmaker (NR)
7) Silence (5)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hail, Caesar (NR)
10) Love and Friendship (6)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
2) Deadpool (1)
3) Star Trek Beyond (2)

4) A Man Called Ove (3)
5) Hail, Caesar (7)
6) The Dressmaker (5)
7) Suicide Squad (6)

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Rogue One (2)
4) Deepwater Horizon (6)
5) La La Land (5)

6) Sully (4)
7) The Jungle Book (7)
8) Deadpool (NR)
9) Doctor Strange (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Hacksaw Ridge (2)
3) Rogue One (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Sully (6)

6) Deepwater Horizon (7)
7) Doctor Strange (NR)
8) The Jungle Book (5)
9) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book (1)
2) Rogue One (2)
3) Doctor Strange (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them (5)

6) Kubo and the Two Strings (9)
7) Deepwater Horizon (10)
8) Passengers (6)
9) Captain America: Civil War (7)
10) The BFG (8)


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Silent Nights (1)
2) Nocturne in Black (2)
3) Sing (5)
4) Bon Voyage (4)
5) Graffiti (3)

6) Timecode (6)
7) The Way of Tea (10)
8) Ennemis Interiuers (7)
9) The Rifle... (8)
10) Le Femme et le TVG (9)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The White Helmets (2)
2) Joe's Violin (1)
3) Extremis (3)
4) The Mute's House (4)
5) 4.1 Miles (5)

6) Close Ties (6)
7) Watani: My Homeland (7)
8) Frame 394 (8)
9) Brillo Pad (3 Cents Off) (10)
10) The Other Side of Home (9)

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Inner Workings (1)
2) Piper (2)
3) The Head Vanishes (3)
4) Blind Vaysha (4)
5) Borrowed Time (7)

6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes (6)
7) Pearl (5)
8) Happy End (9)
9) Once Upon a Line (8)
10) Under Your Fingers (10)


If The FAC is 100% accurate (and remember, it won't be):

La La Land will lead all films and tie the record for most nominations with 14: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song-twice, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  It seems most vulnerable in the Sound Editing category.

Arrival would have the second largest number of nominations with 10: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  Arrival is very vulnerable in a number of categories so 10 nominations may not be realistic.

Moonlight would have the third most nominations with eight: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Score.

Manchester would tie (with Lion) for the fourth most nominations with seven: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing,

Other TFF nominations would come for Toni Erdmann for Best Foreign Language Film and Sully for Sound Mixing.  Toni Erdmann could also have a shot at an Original Screenplay nomination and Sully could compete for nominations for Best Actor and Sound Editing.

Five short subject films that played T-ride could be nominated.  For Doc short: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.  For Animated Short: Inner Workings and for Live Action Short: Nocturne in Black.

In total TFF #43 films (again, only of The FAC hits 100%) would earn 46 nominations which would be the most since I started keeping track and (without actually doing the research into years prior to 2008) the most in the festival's history.  Additionally, the fest films could be in play for an additional three nominations.

Realistically, my guess is the fest ends up at 39 total nominations.

Other non-Telluride films with multiple nominations:

Lion-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5
Jackie-4
Florence Foster Jenkins-4
Fences-3
Hell or High Water-3
Hidden Figures-3
Fantastic Beasts-3
Rogue One-3
Captain Fantastic-2
Silence-2
My Life as a Zucchini-2
Moana-2

Now, to wait for tomorrow morning...


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...

Here are links to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch (podcast)

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit (podcast)

Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Nicole Sperling/Entertainment Weekly


I'll update the experts predictions throughout the day today to add other experts of if any of these that are posted, change their minds,

ALSO!!!  I am planning to post nominees HERE TOMORROW after the announcement with, perhaps, a bit of commentary.  I'll do some fuller analysis in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The FAC Updates for Best Picture, Director and Screenplays / Directors Guild Loves Telluride / The Oscar Nomination Announcement Format Changes / Handicapping the Best Picture Race / Speaking of Guilds: Cinematography

Good Monday to all...


THE FAC UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR AND SCREENPLAYS

Now it's essentially all over but the waiting and the actual announcement of nominees on Jan. 24th.   All of the major precursors have weighed in.  Critics, Guilds, Globes and BAFTA.  We're down to a week to go.  As you will see in the four categories that I have listed for this post, these late breaking group announcements do move the needle when it comes to the predictions made by the Oscar experts.  For example, BAFTA's love for Nocturnal Animals (which hasn't been scoring much during the past couple of months) gave it a boost and Lion and its director, Garth Davis, has clearly benefited from the nominations from the Producers and Directors Guilds.

Check the latest updates...

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses (with trailers for the leaders in each category via YouTube).

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (2)

3) Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Arrival (6)

5) Hell or High Water (4)

6) Lion (7)

7) Hacksaw Ridge (9)

8) Hidden Figures 8)

9) Fences (5)

10) Nocturnal Animals (NR)

11) Silence (10)

12) Loving (NR)

Hot: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals

Not: Fences, Jackie, Sully

On the Cusp: Jackie

Comment:  Fences looks to be in real danger of missing a BP nomination.  Of course, the Academy could nominate nine or ten films, but seems to be the groove that we've settled into over the past couple of years.  

Arrival has gone from a film that looked shaky for a BP nom into a very solid contender.

La La Land's choice for the top spot scored one point short of its highest possible score.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Damein Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester

4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (5)

5) Garth Davis/Lion (9)

6) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (7)

7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (8)

8) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

9) Denzel Washington/Fences (6)

10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (10)

Hot: Davis

Not: Scorsese, Washington

On the Cusp: Ken Loach/I, Daniel Blake

Comment:This category illustrates starkly the effect of the announcements from the PGA and DGA. Garth Davis jumps into the #5 spot, up four places while Scorsese and Washington drop precipitously. 

Personally, I think the 4-5 spots are likely still a giant arm-wrestling match between Davis, Gibson and Mackenzie.  I'm still pulling for Villenueve and Mackenzie to snag those spots rather than Davis and Gibson.  

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight (1)

2) Arrival (3)

3) Fences (2)

4) Lion (4)

5) Hidden Figures (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (10)

7) Loving (7)

8) Hacksaw Ridge (9)

9) Silence (5)

10) Deadpool (NR)

Hot: Nocturnal and Deadpool

Not: Silence and Sully

On the Cusp: Sully

Comment: I haven't talked about the ascendance of Deadpool yet.  It's Writers Guild and Producers Guild nominations as well as a nom for Tim Miller as a first time director from the DGA plus an editing nom from that guild has made the film a serious part of the conversation for nominations including...are you sitting down?...Best Picture (where, if I extended my chart, it would sit at #15).  Additionally, another category that shows the rise of Nocturnal Animals and the diminishing chances of Silence.

The Moonlight lead is substantial in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)

2) La La Land (2)

3) Hell or High Water (3)

4) The Lobster (4)

5) 20th Century Women (5)

6) Captain Fantastic (6)

7) Jackie (7)

8) Zootopia (8)

9) I, Daniel Blake (NR)

10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)

Hot: I, Daniel Blake

Not: Miss Sloane

On the Cusp: Toni Erdmann

Comment: The battle for the last spot seems intense between: the films in the five through eight spots.

(PARENTHETICAL NOTE:  Good God, look at the dominance of films that played TFF #43 in these four categories...top four films in the Best Pic and Directing categories and top two films in each screenwriting category...)



DIRECTORS GUILD LOVES TELLURIDE

The Directors Guild of America (DGA) announced its nominees for excellence in direction on Thursday and four TFF #43 directors and their films were named:

Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villenueve/Arrival

Villeneuve's nomination was a minor surprise.

The fifth nominee was Garth Davis for Lion.  Davis was also nominated for Best Direction of a First Film.  Davis' nomination was a bit of a surprise and knocked out Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge, Martin Scorsese/Silence and David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water who were all thought to be serious candidates for the nomination.

The DGA is one of the best predictors (along with the PGA) among the guilds of future Oscar success, though it doesn't necessarily mean that it will predict the directing category with 100% accuracy.  There's a very good chance that there will be a single divergence between the DGA list and the directors that will be announced on Jan. 24th (and more about the Academy's decision to change how that announcement is made below).

The DGA will announce its winners on Feb. 4th.

DGA coverage and analysis from:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Dave McNary/Variety

Michael Nordine/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Joey Nolfi/Entertainment Weekly

Steve Pond/The Wrap


THE OSCAR NOMINATION ANNOUNCEMENT FORMAT CHANGES

The Academy Awards nomination announcement will come a week from tomorrow but it's going to be a bit different than what we have been accustomed to over the years.  AMPAS will not announce to a live group of publicists, consultants and others this year but will, instead, produce an online reveal on Oscar.com and Oscar.org as well as the network television reveal on Good Morning America on ABC.

The announcement will still come down at 8:30am ET/5:30am PT.

More details are here from Kristopher Tapley/Variety(In Contention) Will Robinson/Entertainment Weekly and Erik Anderson/Awards Watch.



HANDICAPPING BEST PICTURE THROUGH GUILDS AND CRITICS

Those of you that have read this space over the years when we get to the post-Telluride six month run to the Oscars may recall that I pay more attention to some guilds and critics groups than others.  For example, just this past week or so guilds for cinematographers and costumers have weighed in with their nominees and I haven't mentioned them here.  It's not that I think that their contributions are less important or that their guild kudos have no predictive qualities but guild success in other areas seems to be more predictive of Oscar success.

In terms of guilds I look at the producers, directors, actors, writers and editors.  I also look at the major New York and Los Angeles critics groups.  In addition, I pay attention to the American Film Institutes's top film list as well the National Board of Review.  Also, I pay attention to Golden Globe nominees and, when we reach this point, winners.

Throw all that in the metaphorical blender and here's what that set of data says are the most likely Best Picture Oscar nominees:

1) Moonlight- Golden Globe/Best Picture (Drama), PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, ACE, AFI, NBR, LA critics winner

2) La La Land- Golden Globe/Best Picture (Comedy or Musical), PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR, New York Critics winner, (also LA Critic's runner-up)

3) Manchester by the Sea PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

4) Arrival- PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

5) Hell or High Water- PGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

6) Fences- PGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, AFI

7) Hidden Figures- PGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, NBR

8) Hacksaw Ridge- PGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

You could make a pretty good argument that these eight films will be the likely Best Picture Oscar nominees.

Moonlight and La La Land are so tight as to be virtually deadlocked. I think Moonlight gets the edge for the top spot here due to its SAG ensemble nomination.

Lurking as spoilers are these films which have two of the precursors I listed above:
Lion- PGA, DGA
Silence- NBR, AFI
Sully- NBR, AFI
Hail, Caesar- ACE, NBR

No other possible Best Picture players have more than one of the precursors I am focused on including Nocturnal Animals, Patriot's Day and Loving.

As you look at The FAC from above, it seems that Lion may well bump one of these films out of the expected eight nominations.  Fences?  Hacksaw? Hidden Figures?


SPEAKING OF GUILDS: CINEMATOGRAPHY

The American Society of  Cinematographers named their top films last week with nominations announced on Wednesday.  Three films that played the 2016 Telluride Film Festival made the field of five: La LA :and, Moonlight and Arrival.  The five cinematographers and their films were:

Greig Fraser/Lion
James Laxton/Moonlight
Rodrigo Pietro/Silence
Linus Sandgren/La La land
Bradford Young/Arrival

Coberage of the ASC announcement follows:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety (In Contention)

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere


That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday as we continue to update The FAC and countdown to Oscar nomination morning.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Force Dimmed This Week / The FAC Updates Best Picture and Director / Scene Work from Manchester by the Sea

It's Thursday...the last one of 2016...aren't you glad?

THE FORCE DIMMED THIS WEEK

Carrie Fisher at this year's Telluride Film Festival

I'm not sure I can add anything new or worthy to the outpouring of grief and remembrances at the Tuesday passing of Carrie Fisher.  I tweeted Tuesday my appreciation to the Telluride Film Festival because they had made it possible for an old Star Wars fan to be in the same room with Carrie with the inclusion of Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds.  The documentary was excellent and it was a once-in-a-lifetime treat to get to hear Carrie and her brother Todd talk about the film and their lives.

I also wanted to thank directors Fisher Stevens and Alexis Bloom (as I did in person in T-ride) for bringing this story to us.  Bright Lights is set to screen on HBO sometime early in 2017.

Carrie was 60 when she died Tuesday.  I'm a 59 year old man.  That kind of sudden reminder of mortality will jolt a guy.  2016 seems to have been full of more than its share of greatness leaving us.  Ali, Bowie, Prince...so many others.

I have talked with a couple of friends about the notion that we're experiencing what seems like more deaths of more culturally significant people than is normal.  I have a theory about why it seems that way.

I am at the tail end of the baby boomer generation and my theory suggests that my generation, and the generations that have come after, are more susceptible to mass grief in these moments as we are generations for whom being immersed in popular culture is so much easier and, largely expected, as a part of of our normal daily routines and discourse.

The rise of television in the 60's and then the computer revolution seems to have created more pop culture icons and have made them all far more accessible.  The rise of music videos in the 80's and the freedom to download popular music from your desktop is another component of this. As a result, those pop icons are much a more integral part of our lives than they have been for previous generations. Thus, we feel that crushing sense of loss more frequently for more figures than was possible for those that preceded us.

I think the addition of video, the fact that we can see the people that we admire and that enthrall us, has made it all the more dramatic.  The expansion in my lifetime from a television that gave someone three channels to the multiplicity of delivery mechanisms for pop culture that we have now has magnified this.

And there are just more of us.  It's a matter of sheer numbers.  The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there are now 319 million of us.  The 1960 census had our population at 181 million.  Add those demographics to the explosion of access and it becomes another factor in this theory.

So my theory goes.  The hell of it is that we'd better get used to years like 2016 because, if my theory is anywhere close to right... all of our years to come will feel like 2016...grim, I know.

Or maybe that's all just baby boomer self-centeredness.  Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass.

Nevertheless, as a final exhibit, your honors, look at the flood of grief and outpouring of love that has happened over and over again in 2016 and, what seems to me, a loud and constant collective plea that this year limp to a conclusion.  It overwhelms.

In closing, thanks to Carrie for being a giant part of endless hours of fascination and diversion and for proving this past September that she was every bit the bright, fierce and funny woman that I had thought she was.  And, again, thanks to the TFF #43 programmers for making those moments happen.

The force dimmed this week.

I have selected a few posts that went up this week memorializing Ms. Fisher.  They are linked here:

From Telluride regular Leonard Maltin

From the Staff at RogerEbert.com

From Liz Shannon Miller of Indiewire

And an unpublished interview from October with Greg Ellwood from The Playlist

Finally, the IMDb page for Bright Lights


ADDENDUM:  As I'm sure you heard last night, Carrie's mother and entertainment legend Debbie Reynolds died yesterday.  It's just heart breaking and adds another layer of poignancy to what we were a part of this past Labor Day weekend.



THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND BEST DIRECTOR

We're three weeks passed the last BP and BD FAC update (it was Dec. 8) so I thought that a current feel for where the Oscar experts think those two races are would be a good idea before we turn the calendar over to 2017.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (2)

3) Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Hell or High Water (5)

5) Fences (4)

6) Arrival (8)

7) Lion (6)

8) Hidden Figures (NR)

9) Hacksaw Ridge (12)

10) Silence (7)

11) Jackie (11)

12) Sully (9)

Hot: Arrival, Hidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge

Not: Silence, Sully, Loving

On the Cusp: Loving

Comment:  I think Silence may be in a stronger position than some because of where Scorsese ranks on the Best Directing chart (see below).  There does seem to have been a flutter in support for La La Land at the top spot due to its lack of a Best Ensemble nomination from the SAG Awards but not enough to remove it from a still solid hold on that position.  Moonlight and Manchester are bunched very tightly and the distance between the top three and the next film (Hell or High Water...a great story in its rise as awards season has progressed) is substantial.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

5) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (6)

6) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)

7) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

8) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (10)

9) Garth Davis/Lion (8)

10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (7)

Hot: Gibson and Mackenzie

Not: Larrain and Jeff Nichols/Loving

On the Cusp: Nichols and Clint Eastwood/Sully

Comment"  The top four stay the same over the last three weeks.  Villenueve and Washington swap spots,  Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan are very tightly bunched.

SCENE WORK FROM MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

Michelle Williams and Casey Affleck in a clip from Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea (from YouTube)

The Wrap recently talked to actress Michelle Williams about her role in Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea.  Williams is a likely Oscar nominee next month for her work in the film and she should be.  She and acting partner Casey Affleck provide one of the most emotionally honest and effective scenes in any film of this year as a part of the film.  The Wrap talked to Williams about the film and about that scene in particular in this story posted yesterday.

Admittedly, I haven't seen Viola Davis who is everyone's front runner for Best Supporting Actress this year in Fences but she's got a high bar to get over in Williams' performance.  

Manchester by the Sea is in theaters now.

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