The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES

With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR

As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya

3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick

5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Post

5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


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The FAC Updates: Picture, Director, Actress and Actor /. Critics, Globes and SAG-AFTRA Clues? / Down to Nine

Good Monday to all...


THE FAC UPDATES: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Lots of movement in terms of Oscar predictions has occurred as a result of various groups announcing their end of the year film superlatives so I thought it would be a good time to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse charts for the four major categories.  As always, the films that played TFF #44 are Bold.

BEST PICTURE



My last Best Pic update was on Nov. 23rd.  Here's what I posted then:

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards
4) Get Out
5) Darkest Hour
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) The Post
8) Lady Bird

Others: The Florida Project, Mudbound, I Tonya

Comments: Get Out, Three Billboards, The Post and Lady Bird seem to have some wind at their backs.  Darkest Hour and The Florida Project feel like they're losing some steam.

And here's the updates Best Picture chart after announcements from the NBR, AFI, New York and Los Angeles critics, Critics Choice, SAG-AFTRA and Golden Globes:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

Comments: Nothing epitomizes the mercurial and uncertain nature of this year's Oscar race than how the Best Picture race has been jumbled in the last four weeks.  Lady Bird moves from barely being in the top eight to sitting, by the thinnest of margins, at the top spot.  Three Billboards and Get Out have stayed relatively solid.  Dunkirk seems to be suffering from the entrance of The Post into the race.  The Shape of Water also seems to have lost some its mojo.

BEST DIRECTION

Also last update on Nov. 23rd:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid.  After them, though, it's a mess.

And here's the new Director's chart:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comment: And this shows the continued schizoid Oscar race...The Shape of Water drops in the Best Picture race while Del Toro is at #1 on the director's chart...yeesh.  And I am puzzled that we're not seeing more Phantom Thread love for Picture or Director.

BEST ACTRESS

This was last updates on Nov. 27th:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards

2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

3) Meryl Streep/The Post

4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya

5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul

Your new set of picks is here:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:What was once regarded as a two actress race (McDormand and Hawkins) is wide open between the top five.  Also, for a race that was touted early on as having a multitude of candidates it really is down to seven women.

BEST ACTOR

Also last updated on Nov. 27th:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Tom Hanks/The Post

5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe

Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.


And the new predictions:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

Comment:



CRITICS, GLOBES AND SAG-AFTRA CLUES ?

As we have moved closer and closer to the end of the year a huge swell of awards and critics groups have weighed in with their thoughts about what were the best films in 2017.

I tend to focus on seven organizations: The National Board of Review (NBR), The American Film Institute (AFI), the Broadcast Film Critics Association-Critics Choice(BFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NY), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -Golden Globes (GG) and the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG) to get a sense of what's going on.

Nineteen different films have been recognized by at least one of these organizations as one of the best films of the year.  Here are the top ten:

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

Other films mentioned at least once by any of these seven groups:  Baby Driver, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, Logan, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Mudbound and Wonder Woman.

What does it mean?  In terms of Oscar, I don't know what it means.  I have been saying for a month now that Lady Bird might be your Best Picture winner.  I think that it's the film that no one really hates and that a lot of people either love or, at a minimum, like.  I think on a preferential ballot, it gets a bunch of #1 votes but is also on a lot of other ballots at #2 or #3.

The concern I had at Telluride about its chances were that it didn't have enough weight or gravitas.  That it just didn't seem to be about a Oscar-y subject matter.

But...it's reception by critics, I think, may give cover to Academy voters who might have had the same reservations.  Their reasoning might be that if the critics have decided that it's weighty enough then they can too.

Additionally, in a year (and especially here at the end of the year) when the issue of how women are treated by our society has come to the fore; it feels like Lady Bird might benefit from being a film written and directed by a woman and that is centrally about women.

The other thing going for it seems to be that all of the other serious contenders seem to have at least some drag on them.

Get Out is a genre horror film, at least to some.

Some are uncomfortable with Three Billboards' treatment of racism.

Call Me By Your Name my suffer from following a year when Moonlight won.

Dunkirk seems like a long time ago and is a directors triumph but doesn't look like any acting performance is going to be recognized (maybe Rylance, but even that idea has faded) and that feels like a problem.

The Shape of Water doesn't appeal to everyone...witness its exclusion from NBR and SAG-AFTRA.

The Post might be in the strongest position to challenge for the top spot at this point.

I don't think anyone thinks that The Big Sick or The Disaster Artist are likely contenders for Best Picture.

And, for whatever reason, maybe the lateness of screenings, Phantom Thread hasn't yet many waves in terms of a Best Picture nomination.

As to The Florida Project, I thought after its reception at Cannes that IT would be the big play for A24 in the Best Picture race but Lady Bird's ascendancy seems to have moved The Florida Project into the second tier of BP contenders.

It will be interesting to see what the DGA, PGA, WGA and Globes Awards ceremony have to tell us in January.

DOWN TO NINE

The Academy of Motion Pictures has announced the short list of nine foreign language films still in contention for the Oscar in that category.  They are:

A Fantastic Woman/Chile
In the Fade/Germany
On Body and Soul/Hungary
Foxtrot/Israel
The Insult/Lebanon
Loveless/Russia
Felicite/Senegal
The Wound/South Africa
The Square/Sweden

Four of the nine played TFF #44: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.

Surprises were the exclusion of Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father and Cannes favorite BPM.


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more should you check back in on Thursday...from an unusual locale...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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More Predicted Oscar Winners from The FAC / Oscar Nominees for Cinematography and Film Editing / Big Talk from Directors / Could We See TONY Erdmann at a Future Telluride?

Welcome to Thursday...

MORE PREDICTED OSCAR WINNERS FROM THE FAC

On Monday, The FAC took its first stab at predicting the winners of the Oscar in 12 categories.  In today's post I continue down that road with a look at six additional categories: Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.



As always The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Telluride #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land
2) Moonlight
3) Lion
4) Jackie
5) Passengers

Comment:  Looks like La La's to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana
3) Audition/La La Land
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls
5) The Empty Chair/Jim: The James Foley Story

Comment: I still think the Moana song could win this despite The FAC metric.


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land
2) Arrival
3) Fantastic Beasts
4) Hail. Caesar
5) Passengers

Comment: La La Land seems to be the prohibitive favorite.


BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) La La Land
3) Arrival
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Sully

Comment:  This category could tell the tale in as far as La La Land's quest to tie or break the record for most Oscar wins ever.  The record is 11.   La La is nominated for 14 but at the maximum can only win 13 because of the double Best Song nominations.  Hacksaw is a solid favorite but certainly doesn't have a lock on the trophy.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Arrival
4) Rogue One
5) 13 Hours

Comment;  Back to solid La La Land ground here.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Kubo and the Two Strings

Comment:  Looks solid for Jungle Book.


In these six categories La La Land is leading for four Oscars and Hacksaw Ridge and The Jungle Book would get one each.  Added to Monday's totals, The FAC has La La Land at eight wins with Moonlight at two and Fences at two.   Manchester by the Sea would be the other TFF #43 film with a win.

I'll have The FAC's look at the final six categories on Monday.



OSCARS NOMINEES FOR CINEMATOGRAPHY AND FILM EDITING

Here are a couple pf profiles of the cinematographers from La La Land and Moonlight both of whom are Oscar nominated for their work:

About DP Linus Sandgren of La La Land from Indiewire.

And focusing on editor Joi McMillon who cut Moonlight also from Indiewire.



BIG TALK FROM DIRECTORS (FOUR FROM TFF #43)



The Film Stage posted a 2 and 1/2 hour round table of this year's DGA nominees: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve who were featured at TFF #43 as well as Garth Davis of Lion.  That massive discussion can be found  Here from YouTube:

The Film Stage post is here.




AND FINALLY...COULD WE SEE TONY ERDMANN AT A FUTURE TELLURIDE? (yes, I spelled it Ton-y on purpose because I'll bet they Americanize it that way)

Image via ComingSoon.net

Breaking news the last two days:  There will apparently be an American remake of Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann to star Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig.  Reports say the project is at Paramount and is looking for a writer and director.

You have to wonder if a film that will almost certainly be Nicholson;s last major role might not be considered for a spot at T-ride which would be both weird and kind of fitting as the original Toni Erdmann screened for the first time in North America at last fall's soiree.

Lots of coverage here for the announcement of the new version:

Variety,  The Film Stage  and Hollywood Elsewhere.





EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Telluride Sets a Record: Oscar Nominations with a Bit of Commentary / Frantz Leads in France / Now What?

Good Thursday to you...

TELLURIDE SETS A RECORD: OSCAR NOMINATIONS WITH A BIT OF COMMENTARY

Telluride #43 film nominations are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

BEST DIRECTION

Damien Chazelle/La La Land

Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve/Arrival

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Ruth Negga/Loving

Natalie Portman/Jackie

Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone/La La Land

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling/La La Land

Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington/Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis/Fences

Naomie Harris/Moonlight

Nicole Kidman/Lion

Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel/Lion

Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures
Lion

Moonlight

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

20^th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

The Salesman

ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

DOCUMENTARY

13^th

Fire at Sea

I am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

OJ: Made in America

ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie

La La Land

Lion
Moonlight

Passengers

ORIGINAL SONG

Audition/La La Land

Can’t Stop the Feeling/Trolls

City of Stars/La La Land

How Far I’ll Go/Moana

The Empty Chair/James Foley Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts

Hail, Caesar

La La Land

Passengers

COSTUMES

Allied

Fantastic Beasts

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

MAKEUP/HAIR

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

SOUND EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

SOUND MIXING
13 Hours

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Interiuers
Le Femme et le TVG

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The White Helmets
Joe's Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Watani: My Homeland

ANIMATED SHORT
Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl

Comment:

La La Land leads all films with 14  nominations

Arrival had 8

Moonlight had 8

Manchester by the Sea had 6

The total of "Telluride" nominations was 42 which makes this the most Oscar-y year for Telluride since I've been keeping track and probably since the beginning of the fest.

Oh, and it almost certainly means that on Oscar night that Best Picture will have come through Telluride once again continuing a trend that has been true every year, except for 2009. since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008.

08-Slumdog
09- The Hurt Locker
10- The King's Speech
11- The Artist
12- Argo
13- 12 Years a Slave
14- Birdman
15- Spotlight

Will/Can La La Land surpass Slumdog's haul of 8 Oscars?  It's possible.  I wrote last week that, should it hit the 14 nomination plateau (tying the all time Oscar record along with Titanic and All About Eve) that, at least at that moment, The FAC was pointing toward nine wins for the film.

Early favorites for Oscar include: Actress: Stone, Actor: Affleck, Supporting Actress: Davis, Supporting Actor: Ali

Other favorites by film:

La La Land: Picture, Direction, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design and Sound Mixing (Total -9)

Moonlight: Adapted Screenplay (Total-2)

Manchester by the Sea-Original Screenplay (2)

Toni Erdmann: Foreign Language

The White Helmets: Short Doc


For non-Telluride films:

Zootopia: Animated Feature

OJ: Made in America: Documentary

Jackie: Costumes

Florence Foster Jenkins: Makeup/Hair

Hacksaw Ridge: Sound Editing

The Jungle Book: Visual Effects

Silent Nights: Live Action Short

Piper: Animated Short



Other nominations for TFF #43 films came individually for Sully, Toni Erdmann, Fire at Sea and shorts: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.

The FAC went 100 of 122 for an 82% rate of correct predictions.  It was perfect in Best Picture (9/9), Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Animated Feature and Costumes. In categories where The FAC missed one or more nominees the sixth film listed made the grade in nine categories: Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Makeup/Hair (actually that's the #4 spot) and Production Design.

The biggest surprises to me were the Amy Adams miss in Best Actress and also the miss by Inner Workings in Animated Short.  I was also surprised that Passengers popped up in Original Score and Production Design.

I have linked analysis from the experts here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Eric Kohn/Indiwire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Screen Talk (podcast)

FRANTZ LEADS IN FRANCE

The French version of The Oscar...The Cesar nominations were announced this week and TFF #43 film Frantz led the way with 11 nominations including Best Picture.  Frantz was tied for the most nominations by Elle.  Among Elle's 11 nominations was a Best Actress nod for past Telluride tribute recipient Isabelle Huppert.  Huppert was featured at last September's fest with with a screening of Things to Come.

Kenneth Lonergan's 6 time Oscar nominated Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Foreign Film.  Both La La Land and Moonlight weren't eligible for that category as they didn't or won't open in France until after the first of the year.  Other TFF # films nominated for Foreign Language Film were Graduation and Toni Erdmann.  Fire at Sea was nominated for Best Documentary.

Complete Cesar coverage is here from Awards Watch.

NOW WHAT?

Well...the Oscar nominations are in and as you can see above, it was a very successful year for Telluride in that context.  Since the fest closed on Labor Day, thus space has been largely focused on the release of the films that played the fest and the Oscar prospects for them.  Now we are on to the Oscar #89 end game over the next month the culminates with the ceremony itself on Feb. 26th.  As I have done in the past, The FAC will continue to handicap the field right up until then.  

But it's also time to begin looking forward.  

The Sundance fest has moved past its half way mark and the presence at TFF this last year of Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress, which both played at Sundance last year, makes me wonder if that situation, which admittedly has been very rare in the past, might be a little less rare going forward.  This would mean that we might have to pay a little more attention to the films that make waves in Utah.

When the Oscars conclude, there will be a slew of Oscar #90 speculative pieces.  We'll need to examine those.  The Berlin Fest looms next month.  That is often a source of a few films that make their way to T-ride and Cannes speculation will begin to ramp up ahead of its May date.  We'll need to pay attention to the critical response and awards as a way of sniffing out potential Telluride choices.

Once Cannes is completed, we get into serious Telluride speculation and prediction and look for clues, rumors and signs from the media as well as what we can discern from what's known or suspected about Toronto, Venice and New York's Fests.

That's where we'll be going right up to Labor Day weekend.  Join the ride!

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The Final Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) for Oscar #89 / Final Predictions from Oscar Experts

Hello Monday...Tomorrow brings the nominations for the 89th Academy Awards.  The FAC Final is here for you.

Below are the final computations for the Film Awards Clearinghouse for 2016.  Some reminders...

I think this my ninth year to attempt some level of this and I have found that The FAC metric will be somewhere between 75-80% accurate today.  In categories that The FAC misses going 5 for 5, about 75% of the time, the nominee that "steals" the spot is the #6 ranked film/performer.  The most troubling categories seem to always be the Short form films as well as Original Score and Song.


THE FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

As always, I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.



BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Lion (6)
6) Hell or High Water (5)
7) Hidden Figures (8)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (7)

9) Fences (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (10)
11) Silence (11)
12) Loving (12)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (3)
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (4)
5) Garth Davis/Lion (5)

6) Martin Scorsese/Silence (8)
7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (7)
8) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
9) Denzel Washington/Fences (9)
10) Tom Ford/Nocturnal Animals (NR)


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (3)
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (4)

6) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (7)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (10)
10) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (4)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Capt. Fantastic (5)

6) Joel Edgerton/Loving (7)
7) Tom Hanks/Sully (6)
8) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Sunny Pawar/Lion (NR)
10) Andrew Garfield/Silence (8)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (10)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester (5)

6) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (9)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
9) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (8)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight (1)
2) Arrival (2)
3) Hidden Figures (5)
4) Lion (4)
5) Fences (3)

6) Nocturnal Animals (6)
7) Loving (7)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (8)
9) Silence (9)
10) Deadpool (10)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Hell or High Water (3)
4) The Lobster (4)
5) Captain Fantastic (6)

6) 20th Century Women (5)
7) Zootopia (8)
8) Jackie (7)
9) I, Daniel Blake (9)
10) Toni Erdmann (NR)



FILM EDITING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5)
5) Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)



CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Toni Erdmann (1)
2) Land of Mine (3)
3) The Salesman (2)
4) A Man Called Ove (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Tanna (6)
7) Paradise (7)
8) It's Only the End of the World (8)
9) The King's Choice (9)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia (1)
2) Kubo and the Two Strings (2)
3) Moana (3)
4) The Red Turtle (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Finding Dory (6)
7) Miss Hoksauki (7)
8) Sing (9)
9) The Little Prince (8)
10) Your Name (10)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) OJ: Made in America (1)
2) 13th (2)
3) I Am Not Your Negro (3)
4) Cameraperson (5)
5) Life Animated (8)

6) Weiner (4)
7) Fire at Sea (6)
8) Gleason (7)
9) The Ivory Game (9)
10) Tower (NR)



ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (3)
3) Lion (2)
4) The BFG (4)
5) Jackie (5)

6) Rogue One (6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
9) Kubo and the Two Strings (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (8)

ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land (1)
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana (3)
3) Audition/ La La Land (2)
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls (4)
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street (5)

6) Runnin'/Hidden Figures (7)
7) Faith/Sing (NR)
8) Rules Don't Apply/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
9) Letter to the Free/13th (10)
10) I'm Still Here/Miss Sharon Jones (9)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land (1)
2) Fantastic Beasts And Where to Find Them (4)
3) Arrival (5)
4) Jackie (2)
5) Silence (3)

6) Hail, Caesar (NR)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) The Handmaiden (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
10) Rogue One (8)


BEST COSTUMES

1) Jackie (1)
2) Florence Foster Jenkins (3)
3) La La Land (2)
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5) Allied (7)

6) The Dressmaker (NR)
7) Silence (5)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hail, Caesar (NR)
10) Love and Friendship (6)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
2) Deadpool (1)
3) Star Trek Beyond (2)

4) A Man Called Ove (3)
5) Hail, Caesar (7)
6) The Dressmaker (5)
7) Suicide Squad (6)

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Rogue One (2)
4) Deepwater Horizon (6)
5) La La Land (5)

6) Sully (4)
7) The Jungle Book (7)
8) Deadpool (NR)
9) Doctor Strange (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Hacksaw Ridge (2)
3) Rogue One (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Sully (6)

6) Deepwater Horizon (7)
7) Doctor Strange (NR)
8) The Jungle Book (5)
9) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book (1)
2) Rogue One (2)
3) Doctor Strange (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them (5)

6) Kubo and the Two Strings (9)
7) Deepwater Horizon (10)
8) Passengers (6)
9) Captain America: Civil War (7)
10) The BFG (8)


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Silent Nights (1)
2) Nocturne in Black (2)
3) Sing (5)
4) Bon Voyage (4)
5) Graffiti (3)

6) Timecode (6)
7) The Way of Tea (10)
8) Ennemis Interiuers (7)
9) The Rifle... (8)
10) Le Femme et le TVG (9)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The White Helmets (2)
2) Joe's Violin (1)
3) Extremis (3)
4) The Mute's House (4)
5) 4.1 Miles (5)

6) Close Ties (6)
7) Watani: My Homeland (7)
8) Frame 394 (8)
9) Brillo Pad (3 Cents Off) (10)
10) The Other Side of Home (9)

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Inner Workings (1)
2) Piper (2)
3) The Head Vanishes (3)
4) Blind Vaysha (4)
5) Borrowed Time (7)

6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes (6)
7) Pearl (5)
8) Happy End (9)
9) Once Upon a Line (8)
10) Under Your Fingers (10)


If The FAC is 100% accurate (and remember, it won't be):

La La Land will lead all films and tie the record for most nominations with 14: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song-twice, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  It seems most vulnerable in the Sound Editing category.

Arrival would have the second largest number of nominations with 10: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  Arrival is very vulnerable in a number of categories so 10 nominations may not be realistic.

Moonlight would have the third most nominations with eight: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Score.

Manchester would tie (with Lion) for the fourth most nominations with seven: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing,

Other TFF nominations would come for Toni Erdmann for Best Foreign Language Film and Sully for Sound Mixing.  Toni Erdmann could also have a shot at an Original Screenplay nomination and Sully could compete for nominations for Best Actor and Sound Editing.

Five short subject films that played T-ride could be nominated.  For Doc short: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.  For Animated Short: Inner Workings and for Live Action Short: Nocturne in Black.

In total TFF #43 films (again, only of The FAC hits 100%) would earn 46 nominations which would be the most since I started keeping track and (without actually doing the research into years prior to 2008) the most in the festival's history.  Additionally, the fest films could be in play for an additional three nominations.

Realistically, my guess is the fest ends up at 39 total nominations.

Other non-Telluride films with multiple nominations:

Lion-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5
Jackie-4
Florence Foster Jenkins-4
Fences-3
Hell or High Water-3
Hidden Figures-3
Fantastic Beasts-3
Rogue One-3
Captain Fantastic-2
Silence-2
My Life as a Zucchini-2
Moana-2

Now, to wait for tomorrow morning...


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...

Here are links to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch (podcast)

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit (podcast)

Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Nicole Sperling/Entertainment Weekly


I'll update the experts predictions throughout the day today to add other experts of if any of these that are posted, change their minds,

ALSO!!!  I am planning to post nominees HERE TOMORROW after the announcement with, perhaps, a bit of commentary.  I'll do some fuller analysis in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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