THE FAC UPDATES: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, ACTRESS AND ACTOR
Lots of movement in terms of Oscar predictions has occurred as a result of various groups announcing their end of the year film superlatives so I thought it would be a good time to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse charts for the four major categories. As always, the films that played TFF #44 are Bold.
BEST PICTURE
My last Best Pic update was on Nov. 23rd. Here's what I posted then:
1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards
4) Get Out
5) Darkest Hour
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) The Post
8) Lady Bird
Others: The Florida Project, Mudbound, I Tonya
Comments: Get Out, Three Billboards, The Post and Lady Bird seem to have some wind at their backs. Darkest Hour and The Florida Project feel like they're losing some steam.
And here's the updates Best Picture chart after announcements from the NBR, AFI, New York and Los Angeles critics, Critics Choice, SAG-AFTRA and Golden Globes:
1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project
Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick
Comments: Nothing epitomizes the mercurial and uncertain nature of this year's Oscar race than how the Best Picture race has been jumbled in the last four weeks. Lady Bird moves from barely being in the top eight to sitting, by the thinnest of margins, at the top spot. Three Billboards and Get Out have stayed relatively solid. Dunkirk seems to be suffering from the entrance of The Post into the race. The Shape of Water also seems to have lost some its mojo.
1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project
Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick
Comments: Nothing epitomizes the mercurial and uncertain nature of this year's Oscar race than how the Best Picture race has been jumbled in the last four weeks. Lady Bird moves from barely being in the top eight to sitting, by the thinnest of margins, at the top spot. Three Billboards and Get Out have stayed relatively solid. Dunkirk seems to be suffering from the entrance of The Post into the race. The Shape of Water also seems to have lost some its mojo.
BEST DIRECTION
Also last update on Nov. 23rd:
1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out
Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid. After them, though, it's a mess.
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out
Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid. After them, though, it's a mess.
And here's the new Director's chart:
1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
Comment: And this shows the continued schizoid Oscar race...The Shape of Water drops in the Best Picture race while Del Toro is at #1 on the director's chart...yeesh. And I am puzzled that we're not seeing more Phantom Thread love for Picture or Director.
BEST ACTRESS
This was last updates on Nov. 27th:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Your new set of picks is here:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes
Comment:What was once regarded as a two actress race (McDormand and Hawkins) is wide open between the top five. Also, for a race that was touted early on as having a multitude of candidates it really is down to seven women.
BEST ACTOR
Also last updated on Nov. 27th:
Your new set of picks is here:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes
Comment:What was once regarded as a two actress race (McDormand and Hawkins) is wide open between the top five. Also, for a race that was touted early on as having a multitude of candidates it really is down to seven women.
BEST ACTOR
Also last updated on Nov. 27th:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
4) Tom Hanks/The Post
5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe
Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.
And the new predictions:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
Comment:
CRITICS, GLOBES AND SAG-AFTRA CLUES ?
As we have moved closer and closer to the end of the year a huge swell of awards and critics groups have weighed in with their thoughts about what were the best films in 2017.
I tend to focus on seven organizations: The National Board of Review (NBR), The American Film Institute (AFI), the Broadcast Film Critics Association-Critics Choice(BFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NY), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -Golden Globes (GG) and the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG) to get a sense of what's going on.
Nineteen different films have been recognized by at least one of these organizations as one of the best films of the year. Here are the top ten:
10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
Other films mentioned at least once by any of these seven groups: Baby Driver, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, Logan, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Mudbound and Wonder Woman.
What does it mean? In terms of Oscar, I don't know what it means. I have been saying for a month now that Lady Bird might be your Best Picture winner. I think that it's the film that no one really hates and that a lot of people either love or, at a minimum, like. I think on a preferential ballot, it gets a bunch of #1 votes but is also on a lot of other ballots at #2 or #3.
The concern I had at Telluride about its chances were that it didn't have enough weight or gravitas. That it just didn't seem to be about a Oscar-y subject matter.
But...it's reception by critics, I think, may give cover to Academy voters who might have had the same reservations. Their reasoning might be that if the critics have decided that it's weighty enough then they can too.
Additionally, in a year (and especially here at the end of the year) when the issue of how women are treated by our society has come to the fore; it feels like Lady Bird might benefit from being a film written and directed by a woman and that is centrally about women.
The other thing going for it seems to be that all of the other serious contenders seem to have at least some drag on them.
Get Out is a genre horror film, at least to some.
Some are uncomfortable with Three Billboards' treatment of racism.
Call Me By Your Name my suffer from following a year when Moonlight won.
Dunkirk seems like a long time ago and is a directors triumph but doesn't look like any acting performance is going to be recognized (maybe Rylance, but even that idea has faded) and that feels like a problem.
The Shape of Water doesn't appeal to everyone...witness its exclusion from NBR and SAG-AFTRA.
The Post might be in the strongest position to challenge for the top spot at this point.
I don't think anyone thinks that The Big Sick or The Disaster Artist are likely contenders for Best Picture.
And, for whatever reason, maybe the lateness of screenings, Phantom Thread hasn't yet many waves in terms of a Best Picture nomination.
As to The Florida Project, I thought after its reception at Cannes that IT would be the big play for A24 in the Best Picture race but Lady Bird's ascendancy seems to have moved The Florida Project into the second tier of BP contenders.
It will be interesting to see what the DGA, PGA, WGA and Globes Awards ceremony have to tell us in January.
DOWN TO NINE
The Academy of Motion Pictures has announced the short list of nine foreign language films still in contention for the Oscar in that category. They are:
A Fantastic Woman/Chile
In the Fade/Germany
On Body and Soul/Hungary
Foxtrot/Israel
The Insult/Lebanon
Loveless/Russia
Felicite/Senegal
The Wound/South Africa
The Square/Sweden
Four of the nine played TFF #44: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.
Surprises were the exclusion of Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father and Cannes favorite BPM.
That's your MTFB for this Monday. I'll have more should you check back in on Thursday...from an unusual locale...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page
COMMENT TO THE BLOG
And the new predictions:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
Comment:
CRITICS, GLOBES AND SAG-AFTRA CLUES ?
As we have moved closer and closer to the end of the year a huge swell of awards and critics groups have weighed in with their thoughts about what were the best films in 2017.
I tend to focus on seven organizations: The National Board of Review (NBR), The American Film Institute (AFI), the Broadcast Film Critics Association-Critics Choice(BFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NY), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -Golden Globes (GG) and the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG) to get a sense of what's going on.
Nineteen different films have been recognized by at least one of these organizations as one of the best films of the year. Here are the top ten:
10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
Other films mentioned at least once by any of these seven groups: Baby Driver, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, Logan, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Mudbound and Wonder Woman.
What does it mean? In terms of Oscar, I don't know what it means. I have been saying for a month now that Lady Bird might be your Best Picture winner. I think that it's the film that no one really hates and that a lot of people either love or, at a minimum, like. I think on a preferential ballot, it gets a bunch of #1 votes but is also on a lot of other ballots at #2 or #3.
The concern I had at Telluride about its chances were that it didn't have enough weight or gravitas. That it just didn't seem to be about a Oscar-y subject matter.
But...it's reception by critics, I think, may give cover to Academy voters who might have had the same reservations. Their reasoning might be that if the critics have decided that it's weighty enough then they can too.
Additionally, in a year (and especially here at the end of the year) when the issue of how women are treated by our society has come to the fore; it feels like Lady Bird might benefit from being a film written and directed by a woman and that is centrally about women.
The other thing going for it seems to be that all of the other serious contenders seem to have at least some drag on them.
Get Out is a genre horror film, at least to some.
Some are uncomfortable with Three Billboards' treatment of racism.
Call Me By Your Name my suffer from following a year when Moonlight won.
Dunkirk seems like a long time ago and is a directors triumph but doesn't look like any acting performance is going to be recognized (maybe Rylance, but even that idea has faded) and that feels like a problem.
The Shape of Water doesn't appeal to everyone...witness its exclusion from NBR and SAG-AFTRA.
The Post might be in the strongest position to challenge for the top spot at this point.
I don't think anyone thinks that The Big Sick or The Disaster Artist are likely contenders for Best Picture.
And, for whatever reason, maybe the lateness of screenings, Phantom Thread hasn't yet many waves in terms of a Best Picture nomination.
As to The Florida Project, I thought after its reception at Cannes that IT would be the big play for A24 in the Best Picture race but Lady Bird's ascendancy seems to have moved The Florida Project into the second tier of BP contenders.
It will be interesting to see what the DGA, PGA, WGA and Globes Awards ceremony have to tell us in January.
DOWN TO NINE
The Academy of Motion Pictures has announced the short list of nine foreign language films still in contention for the Oscar in that category. They are:
A Fantastic Woman/Chile
In the Fade/Germany
On Body and Soul/Hungary
Foxtrot/Israel
The Insult/Lebanon
Loveless/Russia
Felicite/Senegal
The Wound/South Africa
The Square/Sweden
Four of the nine played TFF #44: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.
Surprises were the exclusion of Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father and Cannes favorite BPM.
That's your MTFB for this Monday. I'll have more should you check back in on Thursday...from an unusual locale...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page
COMMENT TO THE BLOG
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