Taking a Look at the Major Eight / Key Dates / Bright Lights Gets Moved Up / Una Has a Trailer / More with Barry Jenkins

Happy New Year to all of you who follow MTFB/FAC.  2016 has had its ups and a lot of downs. Ready to let it go with the hope (against hope) that 2017 will be better...


TAKING A LOOK AT THE MAJOR EIGHT

Here's a review of the last couple of weeks of The FAC updates for the eight major Oscar categories.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (2)

3) Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Hell or High Water (5)

5) Fences (4)

6) Arrival (8)

7) Lion (6)

8) Hidden Figures (NR)

9) Hacksaw Ridge (12)

10) Silence (7)

11) Jackie (11)

12) Sully (9)

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

5) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (6)

6) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)

7) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

8) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (10)

9) Garth Davis/Lion (8)

10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (7)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Being/20th Century Women (3)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (7)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
7) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)

8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (9)

9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (8)

10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (10)

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (2)

2) Denzel Washington/Fences (1)

3) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)

4) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)

5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (7)

7) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (6)

8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)

10) Adam Driver/Paterson (NR)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (which includes Moonlight and Loving for the first time)

1) Moonlight (NR)
2) Fences (1)
3) Arrival (2)
4) Lion (4)
5) Silence (3)

6) Hidden Figures (6)
7) Loving (NR)
8) Sully (5)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
10) Nocturnal Animals (8)



ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (3)
3) Hell or High Water (4)
4) The Lobster (8)
5) 20th Century Women (6)

6) Captain Fantastic (9)
7) Jackie (5)
8) Zootopia (NR)
9) Miss Sloane (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)

So here's the round up if The FAC was 100% accurate when the actual nominations are announced on Jan. 24th:

Manchester by the Sea would get nominations in the Major Eight categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay.  That might be the totality of Manchester's nominations from what I'm seeing in the other categories from the Oscar pundits. Perhaps it gets in for a film editing nomination.

Moonlight would get five nominations in these categories: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.  Moonlight seems to also be in the discussion for possible nominations for film editing, cinematography and score.

La La Land would land five nominations in these eight categories: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay.  I think it's like;y to land a number of other "below the line" nominations as well with chances for film editing, cinematography, costume, original score, original song (probably two noms here), production design, sound mixing and sound editing.

Arrival would land three nominations: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and a possible Best Actress nomination for Amy Adams.  Other chances: visual effects.

Sully would get a single nomination for Tom Hanks as Best Actor but might have an additional shot at Best Picture, director and adapted screenplay.

Aaron Eckhart has a really outside shot at Best Supporting Actor for Bleed for This.

Among these eight major categories TFF #43 films would net 20 nominations with another 4 as possibilities plus as many as 14 "below the line" nominations.  Additionally, you might expect to see TFF #43 nominations for Foreign Language (Toni Erdmann is a given), Documentary (Fire at Sea, The Eagle Huntress and The Ivory Trade are still in the hunt, though I expect Fire Sea has the most realistic shot at a nom.  Honestly, T-ride might not see any of the docs that played there make the final five.  Also, don't discount the three shorts categories.

Ultimately Telluride 2016 could/should be in the neighborhood of 30ish Oscar nominations this year which would be slightly ahead of the average for the past several years which hovers around 27 nominations.

THREE PUNDITS AND WHAT THEY TELL US ABOUT "OTHER CATEGORIES"

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention and Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter all updated their Oscar predictions on Friday so I thought without going into full FAC analysis and number crunching, I might use the prognosticating power of these three experts to point the way in the other 16 Oscar categories beyond the Major Eight.  My focus, at least for this, was to look for other possible/probable nominations for TFF #43 films and I decided to only include possible nominations that all three agree are probable.

So, within that criteria, here's what I discovered:

La La Land should land an additional seven nominations for cinematography, film editing, production design, original score, two for original song (City of Stars and Audition) and sound mixing.  It could also have potential nominations for costumes and sound editing for a total of between 12-14 nominations.  I'm thinking 12.  I also appear to think the John Legend number form the film, Start a Fire has any chance to get a nomination.

Moonlight looks good for a film editing nomination which would put its total at six.  It also could have a shot at additional nominations for cinematography and original score.

Toni Erdmann appears to be the only other "lock" with an almost certain nomination for Best Foreign Language Film.

One other film that seems to have a chance at additional nominations because it appears on two of the three latest predictions from Sasha, Kris or Scott is Arrival for cinematography, film editing and visual effects.

The complete latest predictions from all three pundits are here;

from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

from Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

from Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter


KEY DATES BETWEEN NOW AND JAN. 24TH

Jan. 3 Editor's Guild nominations
Jan. 4 Writers Guild nominations
Jan. 5 Oscar nomination voting begins
Jan. 8 Golden Globe Awards
Jan.. 10 BAFTA nominations, Producers Guild nominations, Cinematographers Guild nominations
Jan. 12 Directors Guild nominations
Jan. 13 Oscar nomination voting closes
Jan. 24 Oscar nominations announced


BRIGHT LIGHTS GETS MOVED UP

HBO has announced that they will move up the premiere date for the documentary Bright Lights; Starring Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher to Jan. 7th in  light of the deaths of the mother/daughter Hollywood icons that died last week only a day apart.

The doc was originally set to premiere sometime in March.  The film played Cannes prior to and New York, Chicago and AFI after TFF #43.

I have linked coverage of the HBO announcement here

from Variety

from the Hollywood Reporter

from Indiewire


UNA HAS A TRAILER (THOUGH STILL NO DISTRIBUTION)

Una, the film adaptation of the play Blackbird, dropped a trailer this weekend.  The film is set to open in Singapore in the next few days but as yet is still without U.S. distribution.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Additionally, stories covering the trailer's release are here from The Film Stage and here from The Playlist.

MORE WITH MOONLIGHT'S BARRY JENKINS

I have provided links here to a couple of profiles/interviews with Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins, who is having a very, very busy awards season.  Good on him, I say...

from The New York Film Festival

from Indiewire.



That's all for this first post for 2017.  It is my fervent hope that your new year is one of the best years that you'll ever experience.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

La La Will Be Later / Assessing Toronto in a Telluride Context / Listening to the Oscar Whisperers

I hope it's a good Monday for everyone and welcome back from the weekend.

LA LA LAND WILL BE LATER

We found put over the weekend that the release plan for Telluride (and Venice and Toronto) hot and what looks to be the momentary Oscar front runner for Best Picture, Damien Chazelle's La La Land has had its release plan altered.  The film was originally scheduled to open inn a limited capacity on Dec. 2nd but as of this weekend the limited release date has been moved to a week later on Dec. 9th. The wide release date will remain Dec. 16 which has been its announced wide release date all along. Here's the full story from Variety.

Meanwhile, we also learned this week that the film's cast was almost very different with Emma Watson penciled in for the Emma Stone role and Miles Teller-who starred in Chazelle's breakout hit, Whiplash, a couple of years ago, was very close to re-upping with the writer/director but reportedly turned down a $4 million offer to play the role that went to Ryan Gosling.  That story is here from Indiewire.

ASSESSING TORONTO IN A TELLURIDE CONTEXT

We're a week removed from the close of the Toronto International Film Festival and three weeks from the close of TFF #43.  As occurred after Telluride, critics have now weighed in individually and collectively.  Indiewire and The Film Stage have both weighed in with critical consensus and it's interesting to look at that in the context of films that first played T-ride and then followed with screenings at TIFF.

Here's what Indiewire came up with...

the top film from Toronto critics was the same film that ended up with Toronto's audience award as well as finishing in the #2 spot in MTFB's People's, Professionals' and Composite ratings: Damien Chazelle's La La Land.  Other multi-critic favorites from TIFF were:

#2) Moonlight
#3) Toni Erdmann
#4) Arrival

Telluride films all.

The complete report from Indiewire is here.

Meanwhile, The Film Stage named their 20 Best films at Toronto last week as well and included in that listing were: Into the Inferno, Moonlight, Una and Wakefield.  The complete article and grades for a ton more TIFF films can be found here.



LISTENING TO THE OSCAR WHISPERERS

Awards Circuit is hot and heavy into Oscar analysis after the close of the three bog fall film fests with their weekly podcast Clayton Davis and his crew are hard at it trying to decipher which way the Oscar wind is blowing.   Here are links to the last couple of podcasts.

AC Podcast Ep. 10

AC Podcast Ep. 11

And, not strictly and Oscar crystal ball, but New York Times film critic A.O. Scott takes podcasts his preview of the fall film season in the context of Telluride, Toronto and Venice.  That podcast is here.




That's a wrap fro Monday.  More to come on Thursday including The FAC's look at the Supporting Acting categories and the screenplay categories.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The Professionals Telluride Revealed / Moonlight Sets MTFB Pros Records / Overviews of TFF #43

Good Thursday everyone.  Hope that you've been having a good week.

THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE REVEALED

Ten days removed for the conclusion of TFF #43 and it's time to reveal the results of this year's view of films from the festival of a collection of industry professionals, critics and pundits.


Serving this year as MTFB's Professionals are:

Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net
David Ehrlich/Indiewire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/AwardsCircuit.com
Tomris Laffly/Film Journal
Kenny Miles/The Movie Blog
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

The Professionals (just as The People's Telluride) used a 1-5 rating scale with 1 being "abysmal" and 5 being "outstanding",  A film had to be rated by at least a third of the Pros to earn an average.  15 films met that criteria.

Here are The Professionals' results for TFF #43:

1) Moonlight (4.82)
2) La La Land (4.58)
3) Things to Come (4.20)
4) Manchester by the Sea (3.95)
5) Into the Inferno (3.92)
6) Sully (3.89)
7) Arrival (3.88)
8) Toni Erdmann (3.85)
9) Maudie (3.60)
10) Una (3.44)
11) California Typewriter (3.25)
12) Neruda (3.00)
13) Bleed for This (2.71)
14) Wakefield (2.67)
15) Norman (2.67)


MOONLIGHT SETS MTFB PROS RECORDS

Barry Jenkins' Moonlight becomes the first film in the five years that I've been doing these ratings to top both The Pros and The Peoples ratings AND it is also the highest rated film by The Pros in that five year span (see below).

There is a lot of agreement this year between The People's ratings and the Pros.  Numbers one and two are the same in both polls.  The biggest disconnect occurs on Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come which the Pros have at #3 with a 4.20 average rating.  The People had Things to Come as their #19 (of 21) with a composite rating of 3.05)

The Pros were more generous at the top of their list.  For example, #1 Moonlight (in both polls) gets a high 4.82 average from the Pros but The People's average was substantially lower (though still the best rating of all films) at 4.37.

However, The Pros only gave three films a rating of 4+: Moonlight, La La Land and Things to Come whereas the People gave six films a 4+ rating: Moonlight, La La Land, Maudie, The Eagle Huntress, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival.

As mentioned above, Moonlight became the highest rated film in the five years I've been doing this project with its stunning 4.82 rating.  Here's the latest version of The Pros Top Ten with 2016 films added into the mix:

1) Moonlight-2016 (4.82)
2) Birdman-2014 (4.72)
3) 12 Years a Slave- 2013 (4.70)
3) Central Park Five-2012 (4.70)
5) Foxcatcher- 2014 (4.63)
6) La La Land- 2016 (4.58)
7) Argo- 2012 (4.50)
8) Son of Saul- 2015 (4.44)
9) Anomalisa-2015 (4.42)
10) Spotlight- 2015(4.41)

2016's #2 film according to The Pros-La La Land- also landed in the top ten all time at #6.  The rise of Moonlight and La La Land bumped Blue is the Warmest Color and Steve Jobs out of The Pros all time Top Ten.

Coming on Monday...The Combination Ratings...adding The Pros and The Peeps together.


OVERVIEWS OF TFF #43

Eugene Hernandez took a look at his highlights from the recently concluded 43rd Telluride Film Festival for Film Journal.  Hernandez singles out: Moonlight, California Typewriter, Sully and Bright Lights for detailed commentary.


Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter's Todd McCarthy et. al. took a larger view and has named ten films from across the triple threat fall film fest lineups: Telluride, Venice and Toronto.  TFF 43 films that make the cut for The THR article include: Moonlight, La La Land, Arrival, Frantz and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.  Check out the complete THR list here.


Also, Variety's Kristopher Tapley runs down a number of the films that have played over the past two weeks at the fall festivals in this Variety post.  He places attention on Telluride films: La La Land, Sully, Moonlight, Arrival, Bleed for This and Manchester by the Sea.

That's it for Thursday.  Return Monday for a look at The Pros and The Peeps combination film ratings.

Contact me at:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Focus On: La La Land, Wakefield, Una and Toni Erdmann / Amy Adams Speaks...with Kris Tapley / Remember to Rate

Well, it;s Friday and aren't you glad?


FOCUS ON: LA LA LAND

Director and writer Damien Chazelle's La La Land was a huge hit last weekend at TFF #43.  Well reviewed, loved by the Telluride audiences as next week's collected People's Telluride film ratings will attest and it earned some serious Oscar buzz that I suspect will continue into the Toronto Fest which opened yesterday.  As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if La La Land walks away with TIFF's Audience Award at the end of next week.

Chazelle sat down recently to talk about the film with Nigel M. Smith of The Guardian and you can find that interview here.


FOCUS ON: WAKEFIELD

Bryan Cranston's performance is the key factor in Robin Swicord's Wakefield based on an E.L. Doctorow short story.  The film has gotten a mixed reception which you will also see in next week's People's and Professionals' Telluride ratings.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson examines the film in this post.


FOCUS ON: UNA

Benedict Andrew's Una dropped a new clip to the internet yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

Coverage of the clip release was provided by The Playlist.


FOCUS ON TONI ERDMANN

Generally regarded as the early favorite for the Foreign Language Oscar, Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann played well in Telluride last week and also sported the appearance of a new clip yesterday.

You can find it in this Tweet from IMDb



AMY ADAMS SPEAKS ...TO KRIS TAPLEY

Possible Oscar contender for Arrival and/or Nocturnal Animals  and one of this year's Telluride Tribute recipient, Amy Adams sat down with Variety's Kristopher Tapley during TFF #43 to talk.

Check Variety's Playback here.



REMEMBER TO RATE

I'll be taking ratings through the weekend but the collection is going to stop soon so make your voice heard and rate the films you saw at this year's Telluride Film Festival on a 1 to 5 scale with 1 being soooooo bad and 5 being soooooo terrific.

Send those ratings to:


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog itself.

Sundays TBAs by Venue / Day Two Comments / Day Three / Day Two Images

Welcome to Sunday and Day Three of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival


SUNDAY TBA'S BY VENUE

Galaxy

9:00am Bleed for This (replacing Amazing Grace)
9:30pm Sully

The Zog

9:30 am Arrival
10:00pm The B-Side (Free)

Masons
12:45 Graduation

Nugget

4:30pm Through the Wall
10:00pm Things to Come

Pierre

4:00pm  Frantz
6:30pm Student Prints
9:15pm Toni Erdmann

DAY TWO COMMENT

Opened with Sully which I really enjoyed much more than I expected to.  Nice turn by Hanks.  Maybe he will be in the Best Actor conversation.

Then Bright Lights which I also enjoyed.  Very warm and entertaining.  Highlight was during the and A when Debbie Reynolds phoned in to her son Todd Fisher and was able to speak briefly to those of us in the theater.

Then caught Barry Jenkins Moonlight.  Moving with fine performances across the board.  Naomie Harris could be in the Supporting Actress picture.

Ended the evening with Denis Villenieuve's Arrival and the Amy Adams tribute.  Adams was a joy in the pre-show Q and A.  It'll be interesting to see if Oscar voters warm to the SciFi story.

DAY THREE SCHEDULE (at least as it stands now)

Toni Erdmann
Una
Wakefield
Norman

Winners so far: La La Land and (surprise) Sully.  Liking Arrival, Moonlight.  Still not sold on Manchester.

DAY TWO IMAGES

Clint Eastwood exiting after Sully:

Amy Adams at her Tribute:

Carrie Fisher following Bright Lights:

Drector and cast of Sully at Q and A (Aaron Eckhardt, Laura Linney, Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks):

Contacts:

mpgort@gmail.com

michael_speech@hotmail.com

Twitter: @Gort2

The Final TFF #43 Ten (Plus) Bets / La La Land Poster for Fests / Awards Circuit Looks at Festival Offerings / Rules Breaking to AFI / Notes for TFF #43

Welcome to Wednesday...Leaving for Telluride and heaven thus afternoon.  I'll be on the ground in The Ride early Thursday afternoon and than it all takes flight on Friday...been waiting for a year!

THE FINAL TFF #43 TEN (PLUS) BETS

Here it is.  Less than 24 hours until the lineup is officially announced and here's the last MTFB listing of the films I believe will be announced for the fest tomorrow.  A reminder that this is not a complete list by any means.  There will be many more films on the program in addition to these assuming I've gotten these right.  I've annotated here and there.

20) Sully.  The Clint Eastwood film crawls onto the list.  Too many outlets this last week suggesting it could/will play to ignore.

19) A Journey Through French Cinema.  Bertrand Tavernier's retrospective of French film seems too Telluride-y to not make the lineup.

18) Bright Lights; Starring Carrie Fischer and Debbie Reynolds.  Indiewire says that this is happening.  I'm hoping Carrie Fischer comes to the San Juans.

17) The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Gallery.  The app map that dropped last week seems to guarantee this.

16) Into the Inferno.  After missing the fest last year, I fully expect that Werner Herzog returns home.

15) Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.  Richard Gere's late breaking entrant signaled by the Toronto announcement that it will be an International Premiere there.

14) Graduation.  You can't be shocked if Cristian Mungiu returns to T-ride after his success a few years back with 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days.

13) Wakefield.  Another late entry to my TFF radar that TIFF announcements seems to have revealed. I'm beyond excited about any chance that Bryan Cranston could be in town.

12) Maudie.  Sally Hawkins made a mark at Telluride a few years ago with Happy-Go-Lucky but couldn't attend the fest.  Maybe she gets to make the trip this time with this film.

11) Una.  All but confirmed by Mondays Screen Daily review slip up.  Does last year's tribute recipient Rooney Mara make a return visit to Telluride?

10) Manchester by the Sea.  All signs point to that rare exception for a film that played at Sundance and making the TFF lineup.  Lots of buzz around performances by Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams.  Could they be in town?

9) Frantz.  I'm intrigued that this is the one of the three films that looks like it's going to make the triple threat of Venice-Telluride and Toronto.  The other two appear a bit higher on this final list but that distinction makes me think it will be on my list of possible films to catch.

8) Neruda.  The Pablo Larrain film has long been thought to be a serious contender for a spot this weekend.

7) Fire at Sea.  I've thought this was a likely TFF player since winning the big prize in Berlin back in February.

6) Things to Come.  Same as for Fire at Sea.  Its Berlin reception made me think we could see it over Labor Day

5) Moonlight.  Lots of buzz and a perfect resume to make the lineup.

4) Bleed for This.  Flying  under the radar for most of the summer, its choice for Toronto signaled it as a film to take note of as a Telluride contender.

3) Toni Erdmann.  Its Cannes reception made me believe that it would be a TFF #43 title.

2) La La Land.  Venice and then Telluride.

1) Arrival. Venice and then Telluride.


LA LA LAND POSTER FOR FESTS

A number of outlets published the new poster for Damien Chazelle's La La Land that reportedly has been designed to go along with its festival appearances.  Here's the new poster...It looks good...

Wouldn't mind seeing the poster this weekend.  Bet we can see the film!


AWARDS CIRCUIT LOOKS AT FESTIVAL OFFERINGS

Clayton Davis posted a big, sprawling piece yesterday at Awards Circuit focusing on the Oscars and Telluride.  If you take a look at it, you might notice that he references MTFB.  That's nice.  Davis has been good to MTFB this past couple of weeks as we get closer and closer to TFF #43.

At any rate, the post mentions specifically: Arrival, La La Land, Bleed for This, Moonlight, Toni Erdmann, Una and Maudie.

Davis article concludes with a link to the latest Oscar predictions from Awards Circuit.  You can find the post here at Awards Circuit


RULES BREAKING TO AFI

As expected, at least here at MTFB, The American Film Institute announced yesterday that they will open the AFI Fest on Nov. 10 with the world premiere of Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply.  There is also some word that the film may be screened in a small, private fashion at some point at and during the Venice Film Festival.  I would have liked to have the film sneak at Telluride this weekend but always thought that wasn't probable.

Still, the AFI berth signals that there are some folks who feel that it's a a very good film and that should make everyone take notice as we move into awards season.

Here's the coverage of the AFI/Rules announcement:

Variety

Indiewire

ShowBiz411


NOTES FOR TFF #43

#1) Remember to rate the films you see and report them to me on a 1 to 5 scale for the 2016 edition of The People's Telluride.  See contact info below.

#2) Come back tomorrow for the official announcement of the lineup for TFF #43.  It'll be interesting to see who drops it first and when.  Sometimes it's broken early.  Despite the fact that I'll be on the road somewhere in southern Colorado when it breaks, I'll get it posted here to MTFB as  fast as possible.

#3) Check in often at MTFB during the fest.  I'll be posting reactions, choices and each day's TBAs and any Sneaks that may be added.

#4) Remember that even after the fest concludes, I'll still be posting.  We've got The People's and Professionals' Telluride to collate and report and we'll shift our focus to how the awards season is going to play out and how the films of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival fare.

#5) SEE YOU IN TELLURIDE!!!


As always, you can contact me in any of these ways:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

Michael's Telluride Film Blog Facebook Page

Or leave a comment.

Goodbye Gene / Una Busted / Oscar and Fall Film Anticipation / Reminders

Welcome to a bleaker Tuesday because Gene Wilder is gone...


GOODBYE GENE

Gonna take a moment here that's Telluride unrelated but not really.  If part of what the Telluride Film Fest is supposed to be a celebration of the greatness of cinema past, then it's altogether appropriate that we mark the passing  great in this space.

We all learned yesterday that the great Gene Wilder had died from complications associated with Alzheimer's.  Like millions (and that's no hyperbole) it broke my heart.

Wilder was at the center of two films that absolutely the form the core of what I think a comedic film can be: Blazing Saddles (which I have said before, I don't think anyone, even Mel Brooks could get made today) and Young Frankenstein, which for my money is the funniest film comedy made in my lifetime and which Wilder co-wrote.

He and other great roles as well, The Producers and Willy Wonka are the two that come most quickly to mind.  And don't forget that half great half not-so-great partnership with Richard Pryor.

Huge, fun films that would be fundamentally different if some other actor played those roles (Remember that Wilder was not the originally cast Waco Kid in Blazing Saddles, that was supposed to have been Gig Young...really...try to imagine that).

And one of my favorite little nodules about Wilder...he was the original Billy Bibbitt in the 1963 Broadway production of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest that starred Kirk Douglas as R.P. McMurphy, Ed Ames as Chief Bromden and William Daniels as Harding. The mind reels.

We lose famous and notable people every day.  People that have entertained, educated and inspired us and it's easy to get inured to those losses.  But Gene Wilder is in a different, more rarefied category.  You could see it and feel it online when the news broke: an immense outpouring of loss and grief and remembrance.

I wonder if he knew how much he was loved.  I'd like to think he did.



UNA BUSTED

Quite a bit of furor over the interwebs yesterday morning as Screen International/Screen Daily posted its thought-to-be-embargoed review for Una.  The post was labeled a "Telluride Review".

The post/link disappeared fairly quickly but not until after it had caused a good deal of hubbub about the embargo breach.

Here's the original Tweet:

But very quickly, this is what you found at the end of that link:

The other ramification, of course, is that it confirms that Una is on the TFF #43 lineup that will be announced on Thursday.

Una is a drama based on David Harrower's play Blackbird that was recently revived on Broadway starring Michelle Williams and Jeff Daniels.  The film version features Rooney Mara and Ben Mendelsohn.



OSCAR AND FALL FILM ANTICIPATION

Two big previews were published yesterday.  Todd McCarthy's Hollywood Reporter piece about anticipated fall films that included mention of a number of expected Telluride titles and McCarthy signals expectations of a Telluride play for some of them. and Vulture.com makes some pre-fall fest Oscar predictions that may give us an insight into how substantial TFF #43 might be on the upcoming awards season.  First the McCarthy/THR piece.

McCarthy singles out Damien Chazelle's La La Land and Denis Villenueve's Arrival as probable Telluride plays.  He also says Sully is "heavily rumored" for Telluride.  McCarthy also says Francois Ozon's Frantz "looks to be set at all the festivals" (which includes T-ride).  He then runs off a list of films that I'm expecting to play TFF: Moonlight, Una (see above), The B-Side, Into the Inferno and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall...

Also included in that list is the music doc I Called Him Morgan which leads me to think that McCarthy is signaling that it could be a Telluride play as well.  I mentioned I Called Him Morgan as a Telluride possibility back a couple of weeks ago (Aug. 15) along with Beauties of the Night, Chasing Trane and American Anarchist.  Morgan, Trane and Beauties were also mentioned here as possibilities on Aug. 10 in a post including TIFF announcement analysis that also suggested The Ivory Game, Water and Sugar and India in a Day.  Could be that some of these make the Telluride program too.

McCarthy's THR piece is Here

Meanwhile, Kyle Buchanan at Vulture.com takes a stab at predicting six major Oscar categories. Here's the expected Telluride players in each:

Best Picture: Moonlight (which some predict gets a boost from the Nate Parker/Birth of a Nation rape controversy), Manchester by the Sea.  He also mentions Sully, Bleed for This and La La Land.

Best Director: Eastwood/Sully, Chazelle/La La Land, Lonergan/Manchester, Jenkins/Moonlight all have a shot

Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester, Tom Hanks/Sully, Ryan Gosling. La La Land, Miles Teller/Bleed for This

Best Actress: Amy Adams/Arrival, Emma Stone/La La Land, Isabelle Huppert/Things to Come

Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This

Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams/Manchester, Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Janelle Monae/Moonlight

Check out all of Buchanan's meditation at this link: Vulture


DON'T FORGET...

Rate films for The People's Telluride!

TOMORROW'S FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS FOR 2016...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

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Or leave a comment.

Ten (Plus) Bets #8 / Moonlight Trailer Impresses / Toronto Platform Lineup Provides Clues

It's Friday everyone...aren't you glad?


TEN (PLUS) BETS #8

Here is my weekly update focused on what appear to be the most probable films to play the 43rd Telluride Film Festival.

Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

15) Defying the Nazis (Ken Burns PBS Doc)
14) High Summer (Animated short)
13) The Red Turtle
12) Manchester by the Sea
11) Moonlight
10) Fire at Sea
9) Maudie
8) Frantz
7) Una
6) Things to Come
5) Neruda
4) Bleed for This
3) Arrival
2) La La Land
1) Toni Erdmann


And here is this week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Julieta
15) Graduation
14) High Summer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Moonlight
6) Bleed for This
5) Neruda
4) Things to Come
3) La La Land
2) Toni Erdmann
1) Arrival

Still in play: The Circle, The Promise. Miss Sloane. Hidden Figures, The Sense of an Ending, Exile, Peshmerga, Gold, Norman, Eternity, The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez, The Founder



MOONLIGHT TRAILER IMPRESSES

As I mentioned here yesterday, Barry Jenkins Moonlight (A24) got a trailer release late yesterday morning.  Here it is from YouTube:

The response to the trailer was nothing short of rapturous.  We may have a serious stealth Oscar player.   Here's coverage of the trailer drop:

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/first-trailer-for-barry-jenkins-moonlight-shows-a-life-in-three-parts/

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/08/moonlight-trailer-barry-jenkins-trevante-rhodes-a24-1201715487/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/08/11/watch-first-breathtaking-trailer-moonlight-a24/

http://theplaylist.net/gorgeous-first-trailer-barry-jenkins-moonlight-love-heartbreak-20160811/

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/must-watch-first-trailer-for-barry-jenkins-moonlight-set-in-miami/


Despite The PLaylist's claim that the film is world premiering in Toronto, I'm still relatively confident it will actually screen at Telluride first.  The story below underscores my belief.


TORONTO PLATFORM LINEUP PROVIDES CLUES

Toronto's International Film Festival revealed their competitive young film makers Platform section yesterday.  Included in the list of films were two that have been on the TFF #43 radar.  Pablo Larrain's Jackie, which I had concluded will not be making the trip from Venice to T-ride was listed as a North American Premiere thus buttressing my conclusion.

Barry Jenkins Moonlight was also named to the section and listed as an International Premiere, which, I believe indicates a film's first play outside its nation of origin which comports perfectly with a Telluride screening.

The complete Platform lineup and film descriptions are here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/tiff-2016-platform-lineup-natalie-918884

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/08/tiff-2016-platform-lineup-jackie-moonlight-daguerrotype-1201715395/

https://thefilmstage.com/news/tiff-2016-reveals-platform-line-up-with-jackie-nocturama-moonlight-and-more/

http://www.thewrap.com/natalie-portmans-jackie-kennedy-drama-jackie-added-to-toronto-film-festival-slate/

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Telluride #43 Ten Bets #6-Toronto-Venice Aftermath / Others Take a Look at TIFF and Venice / Dreams of Jackie / Could Telluride See Eight Days a Week?

Good Friday world...


TELLURIDE #43 TEN BETS #6-TORONTO-VENICE AFTERMATH

After hearing form Toronto, Venice and even a tidbit from New York gave me a lot of fuel to mix for this week's Ten Bets.  It also allows me to expand the Ten Bets to include more than ten films predicted for Telluride in 2016.

Last week's Ten Bets (which I updated on Monday before the TIFF announcement) looked like this:

10) The Unknown Girl
9) Arrival
8) Things to Come
7) American Honey
6) Moonlight
5) La La Land
4) The Salesman
3) Toni Erdmann
2) The Red Turtle
1) Fire at Sea

Close: Lion, Aquarius, Denial, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, Paterson, Dog Eat Dog, Manchester by the Sea, Bleed for This, The Sense of an Ending.

Now, here's the latest Ten Bets for TFF #43:

13) Fire at Sea

12) Moonlight

11) The Red Turtle

10) Manchester by the Sea

9) Maudie

8) Frantz

7) Una

6) Neruda

5) Bleed for This

4) Arrival

3) Things to Come

2)  La La Land

1) Toni Erdmann

Close: Aquarius, Dog Eat Dog, The Sense of an Ending, The Unknown Girl.


OTHERS TAKE A LOOK AT TIFF AND VENICE

I'm passing along a couple of posts from yesterday that broke down the information that we've gleaned over the past few days.  I have included the analysis from Variety's Kristopher Tapley and Greg Ellwood from AwardsCampaign.com

Tapley suggests a good deal of the same things you'll have read here.  Additionally, he writes that we might additionally see Cannes Palme d'Or winner I, Daniel Blake as well as The Unknown Girl.  He also suggests that Warner Brothers is likely to return to TFF with something from the slate of The Accountant, Live by Night or Sully.  I'd like that.

Here's Tapley's post:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-contenders-venice-telluride-toronto-film-festivals-1201825632/

Ellwood tells us that he believes the possibility of some "sneaks" may be back in play for Telluride and suggests that the premiere designation status, after having been a very clear indicator for the past three years, might not be as clear cut this time around.

The first exception he mentions is for Garth O'Connor's Lion form The Weinstein Company. Jim Sheridan's The Secret Scripture, Ewan McGregor's American Pastoral and Paul Verhoeven's Elle.  He also questions both Telluride passes of Herzog's Salt and Fire and Farhadi's The Salesman.

I'd happily endorse any and all of these "exceptions" but my feeling is that the "honest" premiere status designation is probably still strongly in play.

Read Ellwood's story here:

http://awardscampaign.com/2016/07/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2016-toronto-film-festival-galas-and-special-presentations/


DREAMS OF JACKIE

I mentioned in yesterday's post that Pablo Larrain's Jackie, which was announced for Venice, could be a TFF possibility that would mean that Larrain was presenting two films at the same fest.  You have to be a bit dubious about the chances as it is a very rare case over Telluride's history when a film maker has done that.  Not impossible, but extremely rare.  I think Werner Herzog has done it.  Maybe David Lynch.

SO it could happen...

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere suggested yesterday that he thought it could/would happen:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/07/jackie-venice-debut-ought-to-indicate-telluride-showing-especially-with-pablo-larrain-already-booked-for-rocky-mountain-appearance-with-neruda/

Wells wasn't the only one thinking it could happen as the theory was bandied about on the interweb yesterday.  We'll see.  I'm hoping that it DOES make the trip between T-ride and Venice.


COULD TELLURIDE SEE EIGHT DAYS A WEEK?

A second trailer for Ron Howard's Beatles documentary, Eight Days a Week, dropped yesterday and though I have discounted the chance that it could play in the San Juans in September.  But...

The timing works.  The film is to be released on Sept. 15.  The Playlist, reporting on the trailer release yesterday suggested that in might play "a couple of fall festivals before then".  That only includes Telluride, Venice and Toronto.  Venice seems to be out since the doc wasn't announced yesterday.  So...

TFF has had a Beatles-esque presence at past fests with the refurbished Help in 2007 and the George Harrison doc Living in the Material World in 2011.

Hulu...the T.V. Hulu...is distributing and I'm not sure what that means but I do think that Netflix opened the door to that kind of distrib being a part of the fest last year and Amazon looks to be joining that group this year so why not Hulu too?

So...bring it on along with former Beatle and one of the producers of the film, Sir Paul McCartney.

Here's the new trailer via YouTube:

And here's coverage of the trailer release:

http://theplaylist.net/hit-road-new-trailer-ron-howards-beatles-eight-days-week-20160728/

http://www.slashfilm.com/eight-days-a-week-trailer-2/

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/new-trailer-for-ron-howards-doc-the-beatles-eight-days-a-week/

That will do it for this crazy, crazy week.  Come back Monday.

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