Ten Bets for TFF #51 / Coppola and Megalopolis Get a Distributor / Blitz Is Seen / No Nightbitch at TFF

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51 

I've been doing the "Ten Bets" format as a way of predicting Telluride lineups for since 2011.  

Here's last year's first Ten Bets with the films that actually played TFF #50 in Bold.

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) (All of Us)Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

So 6 of 10.

In previous years the correct ratios were:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

2020: No fest

2021: 8/10

2022: 6/10

2023: 6/10

That puts the average of correct picks on this first whirl at 5.8.

That being said, I feel less confidence about this year's first Ten Bets than maybe any other year.  Sooo... with great trepidation...here are 2024's first Ten Bets for TFF:

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Nickel Boys/Ross

Blitz/McQueen

Megalopolis/Coppola

Now we'll see how this all plays out.

COPPOLA AND MEGALOPOLIS GET A DISTRIBUTOR

Lionsgate has acquired Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis for U.S. distribution.  The film has been set for a Sept. 27th release date putting it in position to potentially play TFF and/or Toronto.  Lionsgate has had an occasional presence at Telluride over the years with their last appearance in 2022 with Living.  

So it appears that the possibility of a Telluride play is still open.

Here's that story from The Playlist.

BLITZ IS SEEN

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Steve McQueen's Blitz has been screened in front of real humans in New York and London.  So, at least some of the mystery about its existence has been removed. 

Now, none of this means that Blitz will play any festival but it also doesn't preclude that possibility that it could play T-ride.

I still think that Blitz World Premiering at the BFI/London Fest is the most likely scenario for the film.

Here's that story from WOR.

NO NIGHTBITCH AT TFF

The Toronto International Film Festival  announced their first set of selections for their 2024 edition this week and included on that list was Marielle Heller's Nightbitch.  MTFB readers saw that in my look at Searchlight films that it seemed like their most likely TFF possibility.  As Toronto has announced that the film will be a World Premiere that implies that TFF #50 is off the table.

This is the link to that story from Variety.

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Looking at Distributors: Searchlight / From Out of Left Field / More as The Bikeriders Rolls out

CHECKING THE DISTRBUTORS: SEARCHLIGHT

Searchlight (and before it, Fox Searchlight) has been a stalwart in the TFF Universe for many years.  My running list of films from them goes back to 2004 and includes five Oscar Best Picture winners and a slew of nominations:

2023: Poor Things, All of Us Strangers, The Last Repair Shop

2022: Empire of Light 

2021: The French Dispatch 

2020: Nomadland (Best Picture Oscar) 

2019: A Hidden Life 
2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Old Man and the Gun 
2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes 
2016: No Show
2015: He Named Me Malala 
2014: Birdman (Best Picture Oscar), Wild 
2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture Oscar) 
2012: No Show
2011: Shame, The Descendants 
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan 
2009: No Show
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture Oscar) 
2007: Juno, The Savages
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake 
2005: Bee Season 
2004: Kinsey 

But as you can also see there have been years that Searchlight was not a presence at TFF: 2009, 2012 and 2016.  2024 might be one of those off years.

I've scoured what Searchlight has set for release and what films are in post-production and the films that are or could be ready and feel like something Telluride might be interested in are meager.  As a matter of fact, at the moment I can only find Marielle Heller's Nightbitch as Searchlight's only real player.

The film's pedigree sounds like a real TFF possibility: Heller was in T-ride in with Can You Ever Forgive Me? in 2018.  The film's star, Amy Adams was a tribute recipient in 2016 and Searchlight set the film's release for Dec. 6th.  But...

The film has been described as perhaps being too odd and difficult to promote.  Here's part of the plot summary listed at IMDb Pro:

"A woman, thrown into the stay-at-home routine of raising a toddler in the suburbs, slowly embraces the feral power deeply rooted in motherhood, as she becomes increasingly aware of the bizarre and undeniable signs that she may be turning into a dog."

See what I mean.  On the other hand, T-ride programmed Poor Things last year to great success.  So...maybe?

So I'm giving Nightbitch a 30% shot at TFF #51 and I suppose there is the weakest of possibilities that we might see Nate Parker's (The Birth of a Nation) Solitary.  I give it a 10% chance.

FROM OUT OF LEFT FIELD

So I was perusing Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel for this and that and came across this story that Jordan posted on Saturday headlined:

Gia Coppola's ‘The Last Showgirl' Aims for Fall Fests; Oscar Nominee, Pamela Anderson?

Intrigued, I opened the story up and read some very interesting speculation including these choice comments:

"Here’s another potential title for Venice/Telluride."

and

"Coppola’s last film, “Mainstream,” was part of the pandemic-afflicted 2020 edition of Venice, but I’m hearing this one’s a worthier film and, more importantly, is a major showcase for Anderson. It’s also very likely headed to Telluride — that fest’s director, Julie Huntsinger, hasn’t locked her lineup just yet, but “The Last Showgirl” is a major possibility."

Could it be true? Ruimy seems to think so.

Additionally Coppola brought Palo Alto to T-ride in 2013 and would have had Mainstream there in 2020 had the fest not been bagged due to Covid.

We'll have to keep an eye on this.

Here's WOR's full story.

MORE AS THE BIKERIDERS ROLLS OUT

Ahead of its release this week, here's more for Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders, a TFF #50 alum:

Austin Butler form The Hollywood Reporter's X account.

Austin Butler and Norman Reedus from Car and Driver.

Jodi Comer from The Bikeriders film X account.

And a 60 second look at the film from PopCrave.

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Final Cannes Speculation / Amy Adams Film Back in the Game? / Janet Planet Trailer, Poster and Release Date

FINAL CANNES SPECULATION

All of the anticipation about what films will be selected for the 77th Cannes film Festival comes to a conclusion on Thursday when the bulk of the films that have been invited will be revealed.  The unveiling is set for 11:00 AM Paris time.  That should mean I'll have the skinny in Thursday morning's regularly scheduled post.  A quick note here, however, is that may mean that Thursday's post doesn't go up as early in the morning as it usually does.  

With that, here are the final two Cannes spec pieces that I'll pass along with my guesses from those lists which films seem most Telluride-ish.  From Indiewire and Ioncinema.

From Indiewire:

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Juror #2- Dir: Clint Eastwood

Marcel and Mister Pagnol- Dir: Sylvain Chomet

Megalopolis- Dir: Francis Ford Coppola

Oh, Canada- Dir: Paul Schrader

Queer- Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Rumours- Dir: Guy Maddin

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

And from Ioncinema:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The End-  Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

 

And here are three films that are included on Ioncinema's list and have been on others that I've not included previously on my guess list but...do have a slim possibility of a T-ride play"

The Shrouds- Dir: David Cronenberg

The Most Valuable Commodity- Dir: Francois Ozon

When Autumn Comes- Dir: Michel Hazanavicius

The Ioncinema list is here.

 Let's see what happens on Thursday!

AMY ADAMS FILM BACK IN THE GAME?

I had written off Marielle Heller's Nightbitch starring TFF tribute recipient Amy Adams (2016) last year amid reports that Searchlight was unsure what to do with the film.  I had included it in early TFF #50 speculation owing to Adams past tribute and that Heller had Can You Ever Forgive Me? at TFF 2018 and that film earned three Oscar nominations (Best Actress for Melissa McCarthy, Best Supporting Actor for Richard E. Grant and Best Adapted Screenplay for Jeff Whitty and Nicole Holofcener)  All that seemed like a confluence of factors that made for a solid case that we'd see it announced for the TFF #50 lineup.  But noop.

Now comes news that Searchlight has announced an awards friendly release date of  Dec.6th.  That makes me think that a TFF #51 play could be in the cards.

The hubbub last year was that the film sounds, well...weird.  The IMDb description is fairly innocuous:

"A woman pauses her career to be a stay-at-home mom, but soon her domesticity takes a surreal turn."

Left unsaid in that description is that the "surreal turn" is that the woman believes that she's turning into a dog.

What motivated Searchlight to finally decide to release the film in the awards window?  I have no real proof but I wonder if the response to Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things (also from Searchlight) convinced them that "weird" was okay?

Here's more of the lowdown from The Hollywood Reporter.

JANET PLANET TRAILER, POSTER AND RELEASE DATE

A24 has just released a trailer and poster for Annie Baker's Janet Planet which screened at TFF #50.  The film will be released on June 21st.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

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Telluride and Oscar Part Five: Best Supporting Actress / The Woman Not in Window This Year / The Jesus Rolls Into 2020 / More on Milos Stehlik

It's Thursday, July 11, 2020...we should know the lineup for TFF #46 seven weeks from today!



TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART FIVE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I'm continuing my eight part series about the relationship between the Telluride Film Festival in the last 14 years (beginning with 2005-the year before I first attended the fest) and The Oscars.  Today's subject is Best Supporting Actress.

Here are the women nominated for that honor from films that played The SHOW.  Winners are indicated with ***.


2005: Michelle Williams/Brokeback Mountain, Catherine Keener/Capote
2006: Rinko Kikuchi/Babel, Adriana Barazza/Babel
2007: Cate Blanchett/I'm Not There
2008: Taraji P. Henson/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga/Up in the Air
2010: Helena Bonham Carter/The King's Speech
2011: Berenice Bejo/The Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
2012: No nominees
2013: Lupita N'yongo/12 Years a Slave***, June Squibb/Nebraska

Emma Stone-Oscar nominee for Birdman

2014: Emma Stone/Birdman, Laura Dern/Wild, Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
2015: Rachel McAdams/Spotlight, Rooney Mara/Carol, Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2016: Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
2018: Emma Stone/The Favourite, Rachel Weisz/The Favourite, Marina de Tavira/Roma

Notes: An astounding 26 nominations in this category in the past 14 years but remarkably only a single win for Lupita N'yongo for 12 Years a Slave.

Both Michelle Williams and Emma Stone have been nominated twice in the category for TFF film performances.  Additionally, Stone was nominated and won Best Actress for La La Land.  TFF films account for all three of Stone nominations.

Williams has two other nominations for Best Actress for Blue Valentine and My Week with Marilyn.

Laura Dern's two Oscar nominations have both come via TFF films.  One in this category in 2014 for Wild.  The other was for Best Actress in 1991 for her performance in Rambling Rose.

TFF has seen three years in which three women were nominated 2014, 2015 and 2018.

To the best of my ability, I believe Ann Sothern was the first woman nominated for Supporting Actress for a T-ride film for 1987's The Whales of August.

Next Tuesday: Part Six: Supporting Actors.



THE WOMAN NOT IN THE WINDOW THIS YEAR

Amy Adams working on the film The Woman in the Window (via The Daily Mail)

Reports appeared yesterday that the Disney folks have moved Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window off its original Oct. 4th date.

That, as you might surmise, moves the film off the TFF #46 watch list.

The Hollywood Reporter's Rebecca Keegan noted Tuesday that the film has been pulled from the schedule for re-shoots after test screenings revealed that audiences were confused.  THR reports that the re-shoots re set to occur next month after star Amy Adams finishes her work on the Ron Howard project Hillbilly Elegy (already on my radar for TFF #47).

The film also features Oscars winner Gary Oldman and Julianne Moore.

Disney acquired the film earlier this year as apart of its takeover of 20th Century Fox and its off-shoots including Fox 2000 which was the home for The Woman in the Window.

Here's the complete story from The Hollywood Reporter.


THE JESUS ROLLS INTO 2020

John Turturro's semi-sequel to The Big Lebowski-which had been titled Going Places but has been re-christened now as The Jesus Rolls- has an announced release target.  Multiple sources put the film into an early 2020 release window.  No specific date has been announced, however.

Screen Media has acquired the film for distribution.

I had been watching for the news of distribution acquisition and dating and admittedly had it on my TFF radar largely because of the connection of the film to The Coen Brothers' Big Lebowski.

I'm of a mind that the 2020 date probably means that the film is probably out as a TFF consideration.

For fuller details check below for reports from:

Variety

Indiewire 

Deadline


MORE ON MILOS STEHLIK (AND A LITTLE ABOUT BEN BARENHOLTZ)

Continued memorials for Milos Stehlik, 1997 TFF Silver Medallion winner and member of the TFF Board of Governors (among many, many other titles and accolades).  Stehlik passed away last Saturday.

Reel Chicago

WBEZ.org

The Criterion Collection (by David Hudson)  It should be noted that this piece from The Criterion Collection website is for both Stehlik as well as Ben Barenholtz.  Barenholtz was a producer, distributor and programmer of note and I am told was instrumental in the early careers of David Lynch, The Coen Brothers and Darren Aronofsky.  He was an early and frequent attendee at Telluride.

Barenholtz died on June 27th at the age of 83.  His New York Times obituary is linked here.



Thanks for reading.  More tomorrow including a new Ten Bets.

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The FAC Updates the Oscar Acting Races / Producers Guild Nominees Feature TFF #43 / BAFTA Loves La La Land and Arrival

Good Thursday...if the country is still here...

THE FAC UPDATES THE OSCAR ACTING RACES

The FAC last updated the four acting race 3-4 weeks ago and some of the ground has shifted in the lead categories.  The supporting categories have remained largely the same.  The largest influences in the last month have been the Golden Globes and the BAFTA announcement of nominees (see below). Those two events within the past week have moved some people around.  Here's the latest, up-to-date look at the acting races with a mere dozen days left until Oscar announces.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
4) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (7)

6) Anette Bening/20th Century Women (3)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (NR)

Hot: Adams, Streep, Blunt
Not: Bening, Negga and Marion Cotillard who dropped off the list.
On the Cusp: Kate Beckinsale/Love and Friendship
Comment: Adams gets a boost from BAFTA.  Streep gets a boost from her GG Lifetime acceptance speech.  The race at the top between Stone and Portman is incredibly close.

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (4)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

6) Tom Hanks/Sully (3)
7) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
8) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
9) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (7)
10) Michael Keaton/The Founder (NR)

Hot: Garfield (Hacksaw), Mortensen and Keaton
Not: Hanks, Edgerton and Adam Driver who dropped from the list.
On the Cusp: Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Mortensen continues to march up the list with his SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations showing that he has serious momentum.  Andrew Garfield also continues to rise.  The race still seems to be between Affleck and Washington for the win.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
10) (TIE) Felicity Jones (10) and Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (NR)

On the Cusp: Haley Squires/I, Daniel Blake
Comment: An incredibly stable category that will be won by Viola Davis.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (5)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
9) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (9)

Hot: Taylor-Johnson has exploded into the conversation just this week with his stunning Golden Globe win and his BAFTA nomination.
Not: Aaron Eckhart
On the Cusp: Stephen Henderson/Fences



PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES FEATURE TFF #43

One of the most well regarded precursors of probable Oscar Best Picture nominees is the Producers Guild of America (PGA).  The PGA named their list of ten feature film nominees on Tuesday and it included four films that played at Telluride last September.

Those named were: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land.  The nomination for Arrival is being perceived as a strong sign that it will likely be among the films nominated for Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 24.  La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight have been considered locks for some time and the PGA accolade just added to that view.

Other films named by the PGA were: Deadpool, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.

Deadpool was a real surprise to the otherwise expected list of films.  Left off: Sully, Silence and Loving.

The PGA also named The Eagle Huntress, which also played TFF #43 among the five Best Documentaries.

Coverage and analysis of the PGA nominations is here from:

Indiewire

Awards Daily

The Playlist

The Film Experience


BAFTA LOVES LA LAND AND ARRIVAL

Damien Chazelle's La La Land led all films in the number of nominations it received from the British Academy of Film and Television Artists on Tuesday with 11 nods.  Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals followed in second place with nine nominations apiece.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had six nominations while Barry Jenkins Moonlight was only mentioned four times.

Here are the respective nominations for each:

La La Land: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing. Production Design, Costume, Sound

Arrival: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects

Manchester: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing

Moonlight: Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Other notes: Toni Erdmann was nominated for Best Film not in the English Language, as was TFF #42 film Son of Saul.  The Eagle Huntress was nominated for Best Documentary and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges was nominated for the Rising Star award.

Complete BAFTA nominations and analysis is here from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

The Hollywood Reporter


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SAG Acting Awards Nominations are 40% Telluride / Oscar Changes the Lay of the Land / Norman Makes an Appearance

Good Thursday film fans...

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS ARE 40% TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence for 2016 yesterday morning.  Actors from TFF #43 films were named in 10 of the 25 slots.  SAG nominates the traditional Actresses and Actors in Lead and Supporting roles in addition to their Ensemble nomination and stunt cast nominations.

Here's what went down vis-a-vis Telluride among those nominations yesterday.

Manchester by the Sea-4: Ensemble, Casey Affleck/Male Lead, Michelle Williams/Female Supporting, Lucas Hedges/Male Supporting.

Moonlight-3: Ensemble, Naomie Harris/Female Supporting, Mahershala Ali/Male Supporting

La La Land-2: Emma Stone/Female Lead, Ryan Gosling/Male Lead

Arrival: Amy Adams/Female Lead.

Complete nominations:

Ensemble: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester, Moonlight

Female Lead: Amy Adams/Arrival, Emily Blunt/Girl on the Train, Natalie Portman/Jackie, Emma Stone/La La Land and Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Male Lead: Casey Affleck/Manchester, Ryan Gosling/La La, Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge, Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington/Fences

Female Supporting: Viola Davis/Fences, Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Nicole Kidman/Lion, Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures and Michelle Williams/Manchester

Male Supporting: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight, Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water, Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins, Lucas Hedges/Manchester, Dev Patel/Lion

Thoughts:  It seems to me that Hidden Figures and Fences pick up some heat for a Best Picture nomination and that 20th Century Women and Loving are losing steam.  I think her nomination is terrific news for Amy Adams.  Meanwhile, Tom Hanks campaign for Sully looks like it's in trouble.


Category by category:

Ensemble: The inclusion of Captain Fantastic was a bit of a stunner.  La La Land's exclusion doesn't seem to me to be that problematic.  It's not an ensemble piece so I don't think even calling it a snub would be accurate but a number of the big time Oscar pros think that it IS a deal.  Their point being that its been over 20 years since a Best Picture winner emerged without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Best Actress looks like the category where the most weirdness occurred.  As of last Monday's FAC post only 2 of the 5 "probable" Best Actress Oscar nominees made the SAG list yesterday: Stone and Portman.  Adams was listed at #6 and Streep #7 last week and Emily Blunt was nowhere to be found. Not included on the SAG list but on the latest FAC are Ruth Negga/Loving (#4), Anette Bening/20th Century Women (#3) and Emily Blunt/Girl-Train who had dropped out of The FAC top ten.

Best Actor: Kind of a bit of a surprise that Mortensen is a SAG nominee.  He edges out Joel Edgerton who I had as the #5 guy in the latest FAC.

Best Supporting Actress: #6 on the FAC Octavia Spencer is in for #5 Greta Gerwig.

Best Supporting Actor: #6 Lucas Hedges is in for the FAC's #5 Liam Neeson.

The SAG is the first of the guilds to weigh in with other major guilds still to come: Producers, Directors and Writers.

I'll be interested to see if Wednesday's announcement moves the needle for some Oscarologists in the next few days.

The next big precursors isn't until the Writers Guild nominations on Jan. 4.  The editors Guild announces their nominations the day before.

Here's the complete list of nominees for film and television from SAG-AFTRA.

Additionally, here's analysis from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.


OSCAR CHANGES THE LAY OF THE LAND

In the space of the three days since MTFB/FAC's last post, a couple of Oscar racers got some big changes as a result of determinations made concerning eligibility.

AMPAS has determined that both Moonlight and Loving, which have been thought to be competing in the Original Screenplay category will. in fact by relegated to the Adapted category.  That probably makes Moonlight the favorite for that trophy on Oscar night.

Coverage of the switch of categories is here from:

The Los Angeles Times

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly


Meanwhile, as seems to happen every year, there were some surprise decisions about Original Scores and there eligibility including the decision that Arrival's score is not eligible for Oscar consideration nor is the score from Manchester by the Sea.

Here's reportage from Variety , Indiewire and Entertainment Weekly.


NORMAN MAKES AN APPEARANCE

I saw three films at TFF #43 that have really flying under the radar since Labor Day:  Una (still without U.S. distribution), Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.

Now, the Richard Gere starrer (Norman) looks like its peeking its head out as we saw the arrival yesterday of a teaser trailer for the film.

You'll find the teaser as well as coverage of the release for the film from Sony Pictures Classics in these dispatches from The Playlist as well as this story from my friend Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net



That'll be a wrap for this second full week of December.  Next Monday's post will include an update of the Supporting Acting categories.

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Independent Spirit Awards Reward TFF #43 Films / Focus on TFF #43 Performers / Oscar Biz Buzz

Happy Turkey Mastication Day!  Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS NOMINATIONS REWARD TFF #43 FILMS

The Film Independent Spirit Nominations were announced on Tuesday with two TFF #43 titles getting prominent attention.  Barry Jenkins Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had a ton of nominations (six and five respectively).  Moonlight co-lead all films tying Andrea Arnold's American Honey with the most nominations.

Moonlight was nominated for six Spirits: Best Feature, Direction, Screenplay, Cinematography Editing and the Robert Altman Award.
Manchester was nominated for five Spirits: Feature, Screenplay, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Supporting Male (Lucas Hedges) and Editing.

The only other mention for TFF #43 films was for Best International Film for Toni Erdmann.

Surprises/snubs included the lack of any individual acting nomination for Moonlight and no Supporting Female nom for Manchester's Michelle Williams.

Additionally, it should be noted that perceived Oscar front runner La La Land was not eligible for any Spirit nominations.

I have linked coverage below that breaks down the nominees,  analyzes the Oscar ramifications from these nominations and takes a deeper look at the perceived stunners.  Here are those links:


Nomination Coverage:

coverage from Indiewire

coverage from Variety

coverage from The Wrap


Oscar ramifications:


Sasha Stone of Awards Daily

Anne Thompson from Indiewire


Nomination analysis...surprises and snubs

Ramin Setoodeh of Variety



FOCUS ON TFF #43 PERFORMERS

As we move deeper into awards season and the release schedule for the films that are thought to be in play, we find ourselves able to access any number of stories, interviews and profiles of the actors from those films.  Within the last week we saw the posting of The Hollywood Reporter's annual Actresses Roundtable which features, among others, Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival and Naomie Harris/Moonlight from TFF #43 films.  That roundtable is here.

Additionally, Variety profiles actor Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea and focuses on how he came to play the role that has him in the thick of the discussion for Best Actor this year.  That Variety piece is here.

Finally (at least for this MTFB/FAC post) Indiewire talked to Moonlight's Naomie Harris who is also widely thought to be a leading candidate for an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. That Indiewire profile is here.


OSCAR BIZ BUZZ

Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter has updated his predictions for Oscar nominations.

Here's what he thinks will happen on nomination announcement morning:

La La Land gets 13 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, two nominations for Original Song, Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

Moonlight gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Manchester by the Sea gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay.

According to Feinberg, TFF #43's other possible Oscar draw-Arrival-won't get any nominations. Feinberg mentions the film in eight categories but never lists it above the level of "major threat".

Here's the link to Feinberg's  complete predictions.

Meanwhile, Deadline's Pete Hammond has examined the aftermath of  the fall film festival season. Hammond offers takes on a number of films including Arrival. Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.

Hammond's Deadline evaluation can be found here.


That's all for Turkey Day...more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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FAC Update: The Acting Races in November / Stone, Gosling and the Musicof La La Land / Arrival Scene on the Cutting Room Floor

Welcome to Thursday.  Thanksgiving in one week...


FAC UPDATE: THE ACTING RACES IN NOVEMBER

It's been about a month since The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) portion of this blog took a look at where the Oscar acting races are so I felt like it was update time.  Since those October predictions Viola Davis/Fences and Dev Patel/Lion have both moved from the lead categories into supporting and both changes have made a significant difference across these categories.  Additionally, the fall out from the reactions to Birth of a Nation and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk have essentially removed those films and their casts from serious Oscar consideration...at least as far as the experts are concerned.

Here's the latest FAC for Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (4)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (6)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
7) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
8) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
9) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (NR)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (NR)

Hot: Henson and Cotillard
Cold: Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers
Comment:  Viola Davis was at the #3 spot last time we did this and her move to supporting has essentially meant that everyone moved up a spot.  If I were to quibble with anything at this point, it might be that I have a feeling...for the moment...that Adams gets in and Streep doesn't.  The FAC metric between them for the five and six spots is very tight.


BEST ACTOR

1) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
7) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (9)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (7)
10) Matthew McConnaughey/Gold (NR)

Hot: Beatty, Garfiled (for Hacksaw) and McConnaughey.
Not: Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder
Comment:  Releases of Rules Don't Apply and Hacksaw Ridge massively boosted both Warren Beatty and Andrew Garfield in the Best Actor conversation.  It will be interesting of that boost takes hold over the next month or so.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (NR)
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1)
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
5) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (4)

6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
8) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
9) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)
10) Molly Shannon/Other People (NR)

Hot: Davis, of course, who became the instant favorite once the decision was made to campaign her here rather than as a lead.  Also Mirren and Shannon.
Not: Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn who has completely disappeared from the chart.
On the Cusp: Lupita N'yong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Comment: It's Viola and then the "just an honor to be nominated" crew at least for the moment.  What was set to be a very competitive race probably isn't now.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (6)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (3)
3) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
4) Dev Patel/Lion (NR)
5) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)

6) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)
8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7)

Hot: Patel and Ali
Not: Neeson, Hedges, Henderson and Steve Martin (Billy Lynn) who drops completely off the list
On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
Comment: Dev Patel's move to Supporting has gotten a big response...though not Viola Davis-level. Liam Neeson appears to be suffering from word that his role in Silence is very small.


From the four acting categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate then TFF #43 films would earn seven nominations with another three possibilities.


STONE, GOSLING AND THE MUSIC OF LA LA LAND

Variety's Jenelle Riley sat down with La La Land stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling a couple of months ago in the midst of the Toronto International Film Festival for an interview that ran just this week.  The lengthy piece also focuses on the music for the film and also includes comments from writer/director Damien Chazelle.  You can find that story here.


ARRIVAL SCENE ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR

Cinemablend reported this week that one of Amy Adams best scenes from the Denis Villenueve's Arrival ended up on the cutting room floor.  Sean O'Connell reports that the decision to excise the specific scene was so successfully acted that it actually was too revealing.  Check out the story here but BE AWARE that it does contain substantial SPOILERS.

That's your MTFB/FAC for Thursday.  More on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Arrival Arrives Amid Accolades / THR Talks to Teller / La La Land's Journey to the Screen / Looking to 2017

Good Thursday everyone...hope you survived Tuesday...


ARRIVAL ARRIVES AMID ACCOLADES

Denis Villenueve's SciFi think piece/adventure yarn Arrival will arrive in theaters tomorrow.  The film currently sits at Metacritic with an 81 score and from Rotten Tomatoes, the film is certified fresh at 97%.  The film did reasonably well in the post T-ride MTFB ratings with a 4.13 rating (out of 5.0) and  a #6 ranking from The People's Telluride, a 3.88 and #7 rating/ranking form The Professionals and a 8.01 rating and a #4 rank from The Composite Telluride.  The film also continues to flirt in a number of Oscar categories as you have seen here on the periodic FAC updates that I post.

With its imminent release, the film has continued this week to receive a lot of attention in the media including Anne Thompson's piece at Indiewire from yesterday that discusses the reasons that the film could not have been made within the traditional studio environment.  Also appearing this week we saw this post from Variety that focused on Amy Adams and the importance of communication as a part of the story of the film.

Arrival's IMDb page is here.


THR TALKS TO TELLER

Scott Feinberg continued his ongoing Awards Chatter podcast series at The Hollywood Reporter yesterday with a sit down with Bleed for This (77% at RT with only 13 reviews, TFF rates/ranks: Peeps: 3.41 #14, Pros: 2.71 #13, Comp: 6.12 #13) star Miles Teller.  The true life boxing story opens next week (11/18).

The Post from THR includes a profile as well as the podcast and you can snag it here.


LA LA LANDS JOURNEY TO THE SCREEN

The Hollywood Reporter's Rebecca Ford wrote a fairly lengthy piece this week detailing the travails of the development of Damien Chazelle's Oscar favorite (at least for the time being) La La Land.  La La Land is scheduled to open Dec. 16 and is set to play as part of the AFI Fest next week.  It currently looks on track to reach double digit Oscar nominations and quite conceivably be the most nominated film of the year on Jan. 24th.

The film has had a very charmed run through the fall film festivals with a Best Actress prize for Emma Stone from Venice and the Audience Award from Toronto.

Click here to read the Ford article.



LOOKING TO 2017

Keep this on your radar for the next 10 months or so.  Paramount will open Alexander Payne's Downsizing on Dec. 22, 2017.  That puts it smack in the awards calendar window and also in a position to make the lineup for Telluride.  Payne has become one of TFF's "Usual Suspects" over the last decade or so after having Guest Directed in 2009 he has since screened The Descendants (2011) and Nebraska (2013) at the fest.  Downsizing stars Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig and tells the story of a man who chooses miniaturization as a solution to some of the issues in hos life.

Here's the Downsizing IMDb page link.

As well as the THR story that includes the release date news.


That's all she wrote for this Thursday.  More on Monday.  Have a good weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The First FAC for Oscar 2016-17 / A Brutally Honest Assessment / A Look at Mifune

If it's Thursday this must be a new post from MTFB/FAC...


THE FIRST FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCARS 16-17

Here's your first look at the Film Awards Clearinghouse view of the four most major of major Oscar categories.  Our first stab at checking the Oscar temperature for this season evaluates the races for Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor with particular focus on the films that played as a part of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival.

For our first pass at these films I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Other prognosticators may be added as the season progresses.

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

Best Actor

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
2) Denzel Washington/Fences
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land
4) Joel Edgerton/Loving
5) Tom Hanks/Sully

6) Andrew Garfield/Silence
7) Dev Patel/Lion
8) Michael Keaton/The Founder
9) Joe Alwyn/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
10) Joseph Gordon-Levitt/Snowden

Best Actress

1) Emma Stone/La La Land
2) Viola Davis/Fences
3) Natalie Portman/Jackie
4) Ruth Negga/Loving
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

6) Annette Bening/20th Century Women
7) Amy Adams/Arrival
8) Isabelle Huppert/Elle
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train

Best Director

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land
2) Ang Lee/Billy Lynn
3) Martin Scorsese/Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
5) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

6) Denzel Washington/Fences
7) Jeff Nichols/Loving
8) Denis Villenueve/Arrival
9) Garth Davis/Lion
10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie

Best Picture

1) La La Land
2) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3) Manchester by the Sea
4) Silence
5) Fences
6) Lion
7) Loving
8) Moonlight
9) Arrival
10) Jackie
11) Sully
12) Hidden Figures

If these predictions were 100% accurate (and they won't be...check below) then:

La La Land would be nominated for all four of these major awards.
Manchester by the Sea would have three nominations.
Moonlight would be twice nominated assuming at least eight films are nommed for Best Picture as has been the case for the past few years.
Arrival has a shot at three nominations.
Sully has a shot at two nominations.

Some observations:

Every Best Picture winner since I started doing The FAC has appeared somewhere on the First FAC. The last four years, the First FAC has had the BP winner start at the top spot (Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave and Argo).  That bodes really well for La La Land.  The two years before that (2010, 2011), the film that was at #2 in the First FAC won BP (The Artist, The King's Speech) which bodes well for Billy Lynn.  In 2009, The Hurt Locker started at #6 on the First FAC and in 2008, Slumdog Millionaire was at #11 on my First FAC.

The First FAC, on average, includes 85% of the nominees for any of the four major categories.  Best Picture is the trickiest as the average there is 81%.  There are frequently one, two or sometimes three films that get a BP nomination that don't appear on the First FAC.  Last year, for example, neither The Big Short nor Mad Max:Fury Road were on the First FAC.  So expect a couple of films to sneak on as the season progresses that aren't already on the list.  Some possible suspects would be: Miss Sloane, Nocturnal Animals or Live by Night.

The First FAC is nominally better at getting the directors right.  That average is 83%.  The acting categories are better with the First FAC averaging naming 90% of Best Actress nominees and 88% of Best Actor nominees.

Last year the First FAC had 6 of 8 BP nominees, 3 of 5 directors (missed Adam McKay/The Big Short and Lenny Abrahamson/Room, and went 5 of 5 in both lead acting categories.

So look at the list above closely.  The history of The FAC suggests that a vast majority of the nominees are on the above lists as are the likely winners.  As a matter of fact, of the 32 winners in these four categories since the FAC started, 30 of them appeared somewhere on The First FAC for their year.  The two exceptions being Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock as Best Actor and Actress for 2009's Crazy Heart and The Blind Side respectively.  So 94% of the time, your winners are already on the First FAC of the season.

I'll have the second edition of The FAC next week and look at the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.


A BRUTALLY HONEST ASSESSMENT

Indiewire's (and MTFB TFF film rating Pro) Anne Thompson trains her analysis on the films that have been in the news the past three weeks from Telluride, Venice and Toronto and offers her insight about them and the way the land lays moving forward into Oscar season in this post from yesterday.

Take a look to see where your favorite film for TFF #43 stands in her view.

A LOOK AT MIFUNE

Mifune: The Last Samurai played as a part of the Telluride 2016  as a part of the Backlot program.  It wasn't a film that enough attendees saw to merit inclusion in this year's Peeps or Pros ratings but the people that did see it and report to MTFB seemed to truly enjoy it.  The Steve Ozazaki film has a trailer which is here from YouTube:

You can also take a look at Alex Billington's First Showing coverage here.

That's all for now.  More to come on Monday.  Have a great weekend.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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