Oscar Prediction Update: Best Actress and Actor / Aretha Will Finally Sing / The Favourite Is the Favorite

Welcome to Thursday...and here's your MTFB for today...


OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's the latest MTFB guesses about nominees for the Oscar for Best Actress and Best Actor.  The last look at these categories here on MTFB was Oct. 18th.

As is the custom, these are the current predictions with the position of each actor from the Oct. 18th predictions to the right in parentheses.  The performers whose films played TFF #45 are Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (4)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3)
5) Viola Davis/Widows (5)

Others: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back, Toni Collette/Hereditary, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (1)
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (2)
3) Christian Bale/Vice (4)
4) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
5) Ryan Gosling/First Man (3)

Others: Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed***, Lucas Hedges/Ben Is Back or Boy Erased, John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman


***Played TFF #44


ARETHA WILL FINALLY SING

After two separate attempts to schedule the film as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2015 and 2016, Sidney Pollack's documentary film Amazing Grace, which captured Aretha Franklin's live performance that formed the basis for the live album of the same name will finally be released.

Multiple sources this week confirmed that film makers had struck a deal with Franklin's heirs and that the film is soon to be on the way.

I have linked coverage of the Amazing Grace news from:

The Playlist

Indiewire

The Washington Post


THE FAVOURITE IS THE FAVORITE

The British Independent Film Association nominations are our and Yorgos Lanthimoss' The Favourite leads the pack with 13 nominations including Best British Independent Film.  Among other nominations the film was named for Best Actress, Olivia Colman and both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz for Best Supporting Actress.  Lanthimos was nominated for Best direction as well.

TFF #44 film Lean on Pete also fared well with nominations for Andrew Haigh for direction and actor Charlie Plummer for Best Actor.

Complete coverage of the nominations can be found here from Variety.


That's your Thursday MTFB.  More on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Updated Oscar Predictions: Best Actress and Actor / Can You Ever Forgive Me? Emerges / Destroyer Has a Trailer / The Favourite Categorized

Good Thursday Film Friends...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS AND BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest thoughts for the Lead Acting categories.  Each individual's position in my last predictions is in parentheses.  Those from TFF #45 films are Bold.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3)
4) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (4)
5) Viola Davis/Widows (-)

Others: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back, Toni Collette/Hereditary, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer


BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (1)
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/First Man (3)
4) Christian Bale/Vice (-)
5) Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased (4)

Others: Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed***, Lucas Hedges/Ben Is Back, John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman

***Played TFF #44

And, by the by, you might look for the a new Gurus of Gold at Movie City News tomorrow.  It will be my second contribution as a "Guru".


CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? EMERGES

The fantastic Can You Ever Forgive Me? gets its U.S. release tomorrow.  The film was well received at TFF #45 finishing as the #5 film in The Composite Ratings for MTFB.  It was #5 among the Pros and #8 in The People's Telluride.

With the film's release, as you'd expect, has been a focus in media circles this week on it and its star Melissa McCarthy.

I have linked a couple of the profiles that have her appeared about her this week from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

I am currently predicting McCarthy to earn her second Oscar nomination for her work in the film as real life forger Lee Daniels.  I also think the film will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay and Richard E. Grant getting a nomination for Best Supporting Actor.

Here's the trailer for it from YouTube:

DESTROYER HAS A TRAILER

Annapurna Pictures has released a trailer for Karyn Kusama's gritty detective drama Destroyer starring a nearly unrecognizable Nicole Kidman who is likely to be a part of the Best Actress conversation for the role.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Destroyer is currently slated to open domestically on Dec. 25th.

THE FAVOURITE CATEGORIZED

 After a good deal of consternation and speculation Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter tells us this week that the acting categorization for Awards consideration for the three ladies of Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite have been determined.

Feinberg reports that Olivia Colman, who plays England's Queen Anne in the film, will be the lone consideration for the Lead Actress category with both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz competing in the Best Supporting Actress Category.

Feinberg also reports on a number of other categorization decisions that have been made as we get ready to swing into the full awards season melee.

Feinberg's article can be found here.


That's MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have another post on Monday in which I will update Oscar predictions for the supporting acting categories.  And don't forget to take a peek at Movie City News and the new Gurus of Gold post tomorrow.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Friday Done, Saturday Looms / TBAs for Saturday / The Other Big News

TBAs for Saturday:

Massons Hall

11:45am-Watergate
8:00pm-Great Expectations
10:30pm-Dogman

The Zog

10:00pm-Free Solo


MY FRIDAY

Things changed with the discovery that the Patron/Press screening would be The Old Man and the Gun.  I took that in and then caught the North American premiere of Damien Chazelle's First Man.

Robert Redford talks with John Horn after the world premiere of David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun

Sissy Spacek

Old Man and the Gun- Pleasant.  Was like a warm blanket to see Redford in fine form playing a lovable character.  Sissy Spacek and Casey Affleck are capable in support.  Tom Waits damn near steals the film.  Honestly, I felt like the film suffered a bit from lack of depth.  Again, pleasant.

First Man-is first rate.  Gripping, pulse pounding but also moving with genuinely touching moments. Gosling and Foy are great and Jason Clarke as doomed astronaut Jason Clarke also does a bang up job in support.

I was a big fan of La La Land two years ago and First Man does not disappoint as a follow up.  The Venice raves were earned.  I think it's a "can't miss" for you Telluriders this weekend.

MY SATURDAY...depending on if I can make the appropriate moves around town and Mountain village: Roma (Cuaron tribute), Destroyer, Can You Ever Forgive Me and The Favourite (Stone tribute).


THE OTHER BIG NEWS

Tom Luddy is not here in Telluride this year.  Co-director Julie Huntsinger revealed during the opening press conference today that Luddy is back in Berkeley as a health pre-caution.  She says not serious or life threatening but rather a decision based on cautiousness.


That's it for today.

New Trailer for The Old Man / Neil Simon 1927-2018 / Tribute Clues / Too Much of a Good Thing / Ahead This Week / The People's Telluride

Welcome back from the weekend.  What are you doing next weekend?


NEW TRAILER FOR THE OLD MAN

Fox Searchlight dropped a second trailer for David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun starring Robert Redford in what he has said is his last acting job.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Additionally, here is coverage of the trailer's release from Indiewire and Awards Circuit.

As an aside, here is my plea to Fox Searchlight-whatever entourage you're bringing to Telluride in support of this film, please include Tom Waits.  That is all.

NEIL SIMON 1927-2018

Photo via Getty Images

Neil Simon died yesterday.  He was the pre-eminent voice for Broadway comedy in the 20th Century.  Read a lot of "Doc" Simon's plays.  Directed some.  Acted in some as well.  

He was a giant that deserved to be regarded as such.  This world is a darker place without him in it.

Exeunt Doc...and rest ye well...

TRIBUTE CLUES

                                      

Was contacted last night by a couple of faithful followers of the blog (you know who you are) who passed along the news that Tellurideinside.com had published the free screenings that will occur at the Able Gance outdoor theater on Wednesday and Thursday nights.  Long time TFF fans know that those screening choices each year generally point to Tribute recipients.

Wednesday night's screening is Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.  That film was directed by a guy named Alfonso Cuaron.

Thursday night's film is Crazy, Stupid Love which stars both Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone either of which might be a Tribute recipient this week (and bravo to TFF organizers for this selection that leaves us guessing still).  I suppose there's also a 2% chance that it could be Steve Carell and that Welcome to Marwen pops up in the T-ride lineup...but I really don't think that's going to happen.  Just like Julianne Moore (the fourth of the five stars in Crazy, Stupid, Love) might be a candidate if Gloria Bell was going to play TFF but as it is scheduled by Toronto as a World Premiere, that's not going to happen either.

I suppose it's not outside the realm of possibility that both Gosling AND Stone get Tributes.

Here's the story from Tellurideinside.com

TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING...

As we get to this moment every year a number of people will ask what I'm most excited to see during the weekend.  I always admit a couple of things: I don't live in L.A. or N.Y. or any major metropolitan area...so I am always interested in films that I know won't make it to my small berg until late in the year if at all and, of course, I am very interested in films that may be part of the Oscar conversation so those two things tend to inform my list of films to see.  I will also have to admit that I can be swayed by the personalities that accompany a film.  And, just like many of you, my choices can and likely will shift through the course of the weekend based on what the buzz is in lines.

This year, more than most, my pre-fest preferences have shifted from week to week.  At the moment, these eight films are in a constantly evolving rotation with each other as to my "must sees" in alphabetical order: Boy Erased, Destroyer, The Favourite, First Man, The Front Runner, The Old Man and the Gun, The Other Side of the Wind and Roma.  That said, I'm also pretty hot for Cold War, Non-Fiction and Shoplifters.  

Ultimately, if you look at last week's Ten Bets, I'd like to get in the top 16 or so and I know that's impossible.  Also, there is another film, that, should it pop up as has been indicated to me, then I'd be compelled to add it.

AHEAD THIS WEEK

MTFB goes into Fest Week mode...

Tuesday's post will include something I've been working on for a year and a half.

Wednesday...will have a special posting of the FINAL TEN (25) BETS FOR TFF #45.

Thursday...I'll post the official lineup as soon as it drops with some extra content.

Friday through Monday...I'll post each day with schedules, TBAs and whatever else seems interesting.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the seventh consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

When the time comes, you can send those ratings to me in any of the following ways listed as contact info for me listed below.

That's your Monday MTFB...more tomorrow...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Ten (20) Bets for TFF #45 #9 / Damien Chazelle Talks First Man with THR / New Posters for The Favourite and Roma / The People's Telluride

It starts in a ONE WEEK!!!   Telluride 2018....


TEN (20) BETS FOR TELLURIDE #9

Here's your penultimate Ten Bets list for TFF 2018 beginning, as always with a review of last week's Ten (20) Bets:


1) The Old Man and the Gun
2) Roma
3) First Man
4) The Front Runner
5) Destroyer
6) The Favourite
7) Cold War
8) Dogman
9) Shoplifters
10) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11) Non-Fiction
12) Boy Erased
13) White Boy Rick
14) Peterloo
15) The Other Side of the Wind
16) Meeting Gorbachev
17) Free Solo
18) Graves Without a Name
19) Birds of Passage
20) Girl

And now, the latest Ten (20) Bets:

1) The Front Runner
2) The Old Man and the Gun
3) First Man
4) Roma
5) Destroyer
6) The Favourite
7) Cold War
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9) Shoplifters
10) Boy Erased
11) Non-Fiction
12) White Boy Rick
13) Dogman
14) Peterloo
15) The Other Side of the Wind
16) Meeting Gorbachev
17) Free Solo
18) Graves Without a Name
19) Birds of Passage
20) Girl

Other films still in play:

Angels Are Made of Light, The White Crow, Watergate, Ghost Fleet, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, On the Basis of Sex, He Dreams of Giants, The Biggest Little Farm, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mary Queen of Scots, The Aspern Papers.

I might mention here that I have heard via very, very hush-hush sources about two or three additional titles that are not listed anywhere above may pop up at Telluride.  I may be able tell you next week...maybe not. 




DAMIEN CHAZELLE TALKS FIRST MAN WITH THR

First Man director Damien Chazelle is basking in the spotlight of presenting the opening film for the Venice Film Festival, after which we are morally certain, he will wing his way to Colorado to screen the eagerly awaited film at TFF #45 (will he bring along the film's star Ryan Gosling?)

The Oscar winning director of La La Land offers up the true story of man's first moon landing through the lens of astronaut Neil Armstrong (who had strong roots in Telluride).  Other cast members who would be cool to see in T-ride include Corey Stoll who plays Buzz Aldrin, Claire Foy who is Armstrong's wife Janet and Kyle Chandler who plays Deke Slayton.

As a part of the run up to the big lift off for the film coming next week, The Hollywood Reporter has a huge feature on Chazelle this week.

The complete story is linked here.


NEW POSTERS FOR THE FAVOURITE AND ROMA

I have to admit that one of the films that I am most intrigued by among the list of films that I'm saying will play in Telluride next week is Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  The trailer looks interesting and I'm a sucker for Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz.

In addition to those factors is the claim from Indiewire's Anne Thompson a few days back that The Favourite might be the early favorite to win Best Picture.

Needless to say, it's on my list to catch next week in the mountains.

The film got a new international poster yesterday and here it is:

You have to admit...it is unique.

Also adding a new poster yesterday was another film that is getting huge buzz prior to screening at all four fall film fests (T-ride, TIFF, Venice and NYFF).  Alfonso Cuaron's Roma's new poster is spare but maybe that's the point:

Roma is also high on my list for next week.


THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the seventh consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

When the time comes, you can send those ratings to me in any of the following ways listed as contact info for me listed below.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

First Man Trailer and Poster Too / Moving Parts / Could The Angel Appear?

Monday dawns and MTFB is waiting...

FIRST MAN TRAILER...OF COURSE (AND POSTER TOO)

As expected, the first trailer for Damien Chazelle's First Man was released Friday night.  I included it on my Twitter feed almost as soon as I could lay my hands on the YouTube link.  Here it is:

The release generated a lot of interest online and the number of sources that reported on it Friday/Saturday were numerous.  Much of that coverage is linked below but to distill the more interesting nuggets:

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone suggests that First Man "maybe going to Telluride but might hit the Venice/Telluride one two punch".  [My guess is the latter if the film does make a T-ride appearance I suspect it will come after a Venice bow]

First Showing's Alex Billington isn't as specific writing that "This film is expected to premiere at a few film festivals in the fall first."

The film is slated to open in the U.S. on Oct. 12th.

Other coverage for the trailer release is linked here from:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

Entertainment Weekly

The Playlist

The Film Stage

Awards Watch

The Wrap

MOVING PARTS

You can take a couple of films off your Telluride wish list/prediction charts.  Over the weekend we discovered that Lenny Abrahamson's follow up to Room, for which Brie Larson won the Best Actress Oscar (and the film also was nominated for Best Picture, Direction and Adapted Screenplay), The Little Stranger will open domestically on August 31st so you can scratch that.

That tidbit is here from Awards Watch

We also discovered that Where'd You Go Bernadette from director Richard Linklater has been moved to March 22, 2019 so it becomes very unlikely in our Telluride calculations.

COULD THE ANGEL APPEAR?

Pic from Marcos Ludevid and Variety

Distributor The Orchard has acquired the rights to El Angel.  The film debuted at Cannes to reasonable critical response as a part of the Un Certain Regard section.  The Orchard brought Pablo Larrain's Neruda to Telluride in 2016 so that suggests it's a possibility.  

On the other hand, I was really confident that BPM, which The Orchard distributed last year, was going to make a Telluride play and was very, very wrong.

Variety's Brett Lang reported the acquisition on Thursday.

That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll be back tomorrow as we begin dissecting the offerings from the distributors that most often play Telluride.  Starting with the most frequent player: Sony Pictures Classics.

Bye now...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Late Breaking: Don Quixote Will Ride at Cannes / TFF Time Tunnel: The Eighth Telluride Film Festival / Filmworker Trailer / First Man Details

Good Thursday yo you...


LATE BREAKING: DON QUIXOTE WILL RIDE AT CANNES

Overnight the Cannes Film Festival announced the addition of several films to their lineup including that Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote will close the fest on May 19.

The Gilliam film had not been previously named due to legal complications but these appear to have been solved or waived so that the film can play next month in France.

Quixote was among a number of films announced as additions overnight included adds to the Palme d'Or competition section and Un Certain Regard.

Notably "Persona Non Grata" Lars Von Trier has been invited back to Cannes out of competition with The House That Jack Built.  That ends  his banishment that had been in effect since 2011.

Screen Daily has details of the newly announced films here.

Here's a thought...a Terry Gilliam tribute in Telluride.


TFF TIME TUNNEL: THE EIGHTH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

The ongoing history of the Telluride Film Festival project continues here today with a review of the Eighth TFF which transpired from Sept. 4-7, 1981.

Tributes:

The Character Actor: Margaret Hamilton, Elisha Cook, John Carradine, Woody Strode
Carlos Diegues
Dusan Makavejev

Special Medallions : Stan Brakhage and Kevin Brownlow


SHOWS:

Age of the Earth
The Big City
Catherine
Charm of Dynamite
The Circus
Daddy Long Legs
Dark Water
Eight Minutes to Midnight
False Witness
Fear Not Jacob
Fruits of Passion
Ganga Zumba
Hollywood
Love Affair or The Case of the Missing Switchboard Operator
Montenegro
My Dinner With Andre
Mysteries of the Organism
The Paper Chase
Paradise Not Yet Lost
Pearl Row
Pickup on South STreet
Prisoner of Shark Island
Sergeant Rutledge
Sherlock Holmes
Silver Dollar
Soldier Girls
Stages: John Houseman Directs Lear
The Sudden Wealth of the Poor People of Kombach
Three Brothers
Ticket to Heaven
Trapped
The Trouble with Harry
The Triumph of Sherlock Holmes
Vernon Florida
A Very Curious Girl
The Wizard of Oz
Xica Da Silva

Guests:

Susan Anspach
Keith Carradine
Robert Carradine
Shelley Duvall
Sam Fuller
Andre Gregory
John Houseman
Leonard Maltin
Errol Morris
Volker Schlondorff
Wallace Shawn



FILMWORKER TRAILER

One of the documentaries that made something of a splash at last year's fest was Tony Zierra's Filmworker which centered on the story of one time actor Leon Vitali who became Stanley Kubrick's right hand man.

Filmworker now has this trailer (vie YouTube):

The Playlist has details about the film and the trailer's release here.

Filmworker is set to open early next month in Los Angeles and New York.


FIRST MAN DETAILS

First Man set pics via The Daily Mail

One of the domestic non-Cannes films I'm watching for a possible slot at TFF #45 is Damien Chazelle's First Man.  It's Chazelle's much anticipated followup to La La Land.

First Man will follow the true story of American hero Neil Armstrong, the first man on the moon.  The film is scheduled for commercial release on Oct. 12th.

I have it on my radar because of its high profile and because of Chazelle.  The distribution is with Universal Pictures which has a thin Telluride profile over the past decade or so playing Steve Jobs at T-ride in 2015 and Flash of Genius back in 2008.

It's also worth noting that the film is scripted by Josh Singer who co-wrote and won an Oscar for Spotlight in 2015.  Singer also penned The Post last year which was a Golden Globe nominee for Best Screenplay.

Indiewire's Michael Nordine reported on some emerging details about the film (which has been described in an earlier Indiewire story as "Whiplash in space". (The 25 Actor-Director Pairings to Get Excited About in 2018).


That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  Tune in again Monday for more.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The FAC Updates the Oscar Acting Races / Producers Guild Nominees Feature TFF #43 / BAFTA Loves La La Land and Arrival

Good Thursday...if the country is still here...

THE FAC UPDATES THE OSCAR ACTING RACES

The FAC last updated the four acting race 3-4 weeks ago and some of the ground has shifted in the lead categories.  The supporting categories have remained largely the same.  The largest influences in the last month have been the Golden Globes and the BAFTA announcement of nominees (see below). Those two events within the past week have moved some people around.  Here's the latest, up-to-date look at the acting races with a mere dozen days left until Oscar announces.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
4) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (7)

6) Anette Bening/20th Century Women (3)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (NR)

Hot: Adams, Streep, Blunt
Not: Bening, Negga and Marion Cotillard who dropped off the list.
On the Cusp: Kate Beckinsale/Love and Friendship
Comment: Adams gets a boost from BAFTA.  Streep gets a boost from her GG Lifetime acceptance speech.  The race at the top between Stone and Portman is incredibly close.

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (4)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

6) Tom Hanks/Sully (3)
7) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
8) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
9) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (7)
10) Michael Keaton/The Founder (NR)

Hot: Garfield (Hacksaw), Mortensen and Keaton
Not: Hanks, Edgerton and Adam Driver who dropped from the list.
On the Cusp: Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Mortensen continues to march up the list with his SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations showing that he has serious momentum.  Andrew Garfield also continues to rise.  The race still seems to be between Affleck and Washington for the win.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
10) (TIE) Felicity Jones (10) and Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (NR)

On the Cusp: Haley Squires/I, Daniel Blake
Comment: An incredibly stable category that will be won by Viola Davis.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (5)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
9) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (9)

Hot: Taylor-Johnson has exploded into the conversation just this week with his stunning Golden Globe win and his BAFTA nomination.
Not: Aaron Eckhart
On the Cusp: Stephen Henderson/Fences



PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES FEATURE TFF #43

One of the most well regarded precursors of probable Oscar Best Picture nominees is the Producers Guild of America (PGA).  The PGA named their list of ten feature film nominees on Tuesday and it included four films that played at Telluride last September.

Those named were: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land.  The nomination for Arrival is being perceived as a strong sign that it will likely be among the films nominated for Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 24.  La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight have been considered locks for some time and the PGA accolade just added to that view.

Other films named by the PGA were: Deadpool, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.

Deadpool was a real surprise to the otherwise expected list of films.  Left off: Sully, Silence and Loving.

The PGA also named The Eagle Huntress, which also played TFF #43 among the five Best Documentaries.

Coverage and analysis of the PGA nominations is here from:

Indiewire

Awards Daily

The Playlist

The Film Experience


BAFTA LOVES LA LAND AND ARRIVAL

Damien Chazelle's La La Land led all films in the number of nominations it received from the British Academy of Film and Television Artists on Tuesday with 11 nods.  Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals followed in second place with nine nominations apiece.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had six nominations while Barry Jenkins Moonlight was only mentioned four times.

Here are the respective nominations for each:

La La Land: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing. Production Design, Costume, Sound

Arrival: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects

Manchester: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing

Moonlight: Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Other notes: Toni Erdmann was nominated for Best Film not in the English Language, as was TFF #42 film Son of Saul.  The Eagle Huntress was nominated for Best Documentary and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges was nominated for the Rising Star award.

Complete BAFTA nominations and analysis is here from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

The Hollywood Reporter


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SAG Acting Awards Nominations are 40% Telluride / Oscar Changes the Lay of the Land / Norman Makes an Appearance

Good Thursday film fans...

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS ARE 40% TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence for 2016 yesterday morning.  Actors from TFF #43 films were named in 10 of the 25 slots.  SAG nominates the traditional Actresses and Actors in Lead and Supporting roles in addition to their Ensemble nomination and stunt cast nominations.

Here's what went down vis-a-vis Telluride among those nominations yesterday.

Manchester by the Sea-4: Ensemble, Casey Affleck/Male Lead, Michelle Williams/Female Supporting, Lucas Hedges/Male Supporting.

Moonlight-3: Ensemble, Naomie Harris/Female Supporting, Mahershala Ali/Male Supporting

La La Land-2: Emma Stone/Female Lead, Ryan Gosling/Male Lead

Arrival: Amy Adams/Female Lead.

Complete nominations:

Ensemble: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester, Moonlight

Female Lead: Amy Adams/Arrival, Emily Blunt/Girl on the Train, Natalie Portman/Jackie, Emma Stone/La La Land and Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Male Lead: Casey Affleck/Manchester, Ryan Gosling/La La, Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge, Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington/Fences

Female Supporting: Viola Davis/Fences, Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Nicole Kidman/Lion, Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures and Michelle Williams/Manchester

Male Supporting: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight, Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water, Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins, Lucas Hedges/Manchester, Dev Patel/Lion

Thoughts:  It seems to me that Hidden Figures and Fences pick up some heat for a Best Picture nomination and that 20th Century Women and Loving are losing steam.  I think her nomination is terrific news for Amy Adams.  Meanwhile, Tom Hanks campaign for Sully looks like it's in trouble.


Category by category:

Ensemble: The inclusion of Captain Fantastic was a bit of a stunner.  La La Land's exclusion doesn't seem to me to be that problematic.  It's not an ensemble piece so I don't think even calling it a snub would be accurate but a number of the big time Oscar pros think that it IS a deal.  Their point being that its been over 20 years since a Best Picture winner emerged without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Best Actress looks like the category where the most weirdness occurred.  As of last Monday's FAC post only 2 of the 5 "probable" Best Actress Oscar nominees made the SAG list yesterday: Stone and Portman.  Adams was listed at #6 and Streep #7 last week and Emily Blunt was nowhere to be found. Not included on the SAG list but on the latest FAC are Ruth Negga/Loving (#4), Anette Bening/20th Century Women (#3) and Emily Blunt/Girl-Train who had dropped out of The FAC top ten.

Best Actor: Kind of a bit of a surprise that Mortensen is a SAG nominee.  He edges out Joel Edgerton who I had as the #5 guy in the latest FAC.

Best Supporting Actress: #6 on the FAC Octavia Spencer is in for #5 Greta Gerwig.

Best Supporting Actor: #6 Lucas Hedges is in for the FAC's #5 Liam Neeson.

The SAG is the first of the guilds to weigh in with other major guilds still to come: Producers, Directors and Writers.

I'll be interested to see if Wednesday's announcement moves the needle for some Oscarologists in the next few days.

The next big precursors isn't until the Writers Guild nominations on Jan. 4.  The editors Guild announces their nominations the day before.

Here's the complete list of nominees for film and television from SAG-AFTRA.

Additionally, here's analysis from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.


OSCAR CHANGES THE LAY OF THE LAND

In the space of the three days since MTFB/FAC's last post, a couple of Oscar racers got some big changes as a result of determinations made concerning eligibility.

AMPAS has determined that both Moonlight and Loving, which have been thought to be competing in the Original Screenplay category will. in fact by relegated to the Adapted category.  That probably makes Moonlight the favorite for that trophy on Oscar night.

Coverage of the switch of categories is here from:

The Los Angeles Times

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly


Meanwhile, as seems to happen every year, there were some surprise decisions about Original Scores and there eligibility including the decision that Arrival's score is not eligible for Oscar consideration nor is the score from Manchester by the Sea.

Here's reportage from Variety , Indiewire and Entertainment Weekly.


NORMAN MAKES AN APPEARANCE

I saw three films at TFF #43 that have really flying under the radar since Labor Day:  Una (still without U.S. distribution), Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.

Now, the Richard Gere starrer (Norman) looks like its peeking its head out as we saw the arrival yesterday of a teaser trailer for the film.

You'll find the teaser as well as coverage of the release for the film from Sony Pictures Classics in these dispatches from The Playlist as well as this story from my friend Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net



That'll be a wrap for this second full week of December.  Next Monday's post will include an update of the Supporting Acting categories.

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Many Manchester Moments This Week / Bleed for This Highlighted / Musical Notes on La La Land

It's Monday...wake up!

A parenthetical note before we begin...both Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea and Ben Younger's Bleed for This opened this past weekend, thus explaining the slew of pieces/posts that we saw about both films from the latter part of the previous week...


MANY MANCHESTER MOMENTS THIS WEEK

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea was the focus of a good amount of publicity this weekendas it opened for public consumption.  The film has garnered terrific reviews ( 95 on Metacritic and 99% on Rotten Tomatoes) and is considered to be in play for a number of high profile Oscar nominations (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and it has at least four cast members that are part of the conversation with Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams thought to be very likely nominees).

Consequently, here are links to a few of the stories for MBTS that popped at the end of the week:

Here's Anne Thompson's take on how the film was put together.

Kate Erbland/Indiewire  on the editing for the film.

And Indiewire's Bill Desowitz writes about the constrction of the film's flashback sequences.


BLEED FOR THIS HIGHLIGHTED

Also opening this past weekend was Ben Younger's boxing flick based on the life of boxer Vinnie Pazienza.  Miles Teller (of Whiplash fame) plays Pazienza and Aaron Eckhart shines as his trainer Kevin Rooney).

The Hollywood Reporter posted this Miles Teller piece on Friday.  Meanwhile, the film's publicity folks posted this behind-the-scenes video on its Facebook page.



MUSICAL NOTES FROM LA LA LAND

Last Thursday I posted a link to a story from Variety that featured among other things about the film, a focus on the music that is such a fundamental part of it.  As the weekend approached I started seeing stories elsewhere that included a full rendition of the song City of Stars from La La Land's soundtrack (it's a very likely Oscar nominee for Best Original Song).  The stories also included the complete track list from the film's forthcoming album (I can't really wait for the album to become available).

Here, for your listening pleasure is the YouTube version of Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone dueting their hearts out:

And here are links to a three of those stories that include the duet as well as the film's official track list:

From The Film Stage.

From SlashFilm.

From The Playlist.

The film's soundtrack will reportedly be available on Dec. 9th, the day the film opens.


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FAC Update: The Acting Races in November / Stone, Gosling and the Musicof La La Land / Arrival Scene on the Cutting Room Floor

Welcome to Thursday.  Thanksgiving in one week...


FAC UPDATE: THE ACTING RACES IN NOVEMBER

It's been about a month since The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) portion of this blog took a look at where the Oscar acting races are so I felt like it was update time.  Since those October predictions Viola Davis/Fences and Dev Patel/Lion have both moved from the lead categories into supporting and both changes have made a significant difference across these categories.  Additionally, the fall out from the reactions to Birth of a Nation and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk have essentially removed those films and their casts from serious Oscar consideration...at least as far as the experts are concerned.

Here's the latest FAC for Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (4)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (6)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
7) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
8) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
9) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (NR)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (NR)

Hot: Henson and Cotillard
Cold: Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers
Comment:  Viola Davis was at the #3 spot last time we did this and her move to supporting has essentially meant that everyone moved up a spot.  If I were to quibble with anything at this point, it might be that I have a feeling...for the moment...that Adams gets in and Streep doesn't.  The FAC metric between them for the five and six spots is very tight.


BEST ACTOR

1) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
7) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (9)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (7)
10) Matthew McConnaughey/Gold (NR)

Hot: Beatty, Garfiled (for Hacksaw) and McConnaughey.
Not: Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder
Comment:  Releases of Rules Don't Apply and Hacksaw Ridge massively boosted both Warren Beatty and Andrew Garfield in the Best Actor conversation.  It will be interesting of that boost takes hold over the next month or so.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (NR)
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1)
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
5) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (4)

6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
8) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
9) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)
10) Molly Shannon/Other People (NR)

Hot: Davis, of course, who became the instant favorite once the decision was made to campaign her here rather than as a lead.  Also Mirren and Shannon.
Not: Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn who has completely disappeared from the chart.
On the Cusp: Lupita N'yong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Comment: It's Viola and then the "just an honor to be nominated" crew at least for the moment.  What was set to be a very competitive race probably isn't now.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (6)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (3)
3) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
4) Dev Patel/Lion (NR)
5) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)

6) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)
8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7)

Hot: Patel and Ali
Not: Neeson, Hedges, Henderson and Steve Martin (Billy Lynn) who drops completely off the list
On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
Comment: Dev Patel's move to Supporting has gotten a big response...though not Viola Davis-level. Liam Neeson appears to be suffering from word that his role in Silence is very small.


From the four acting categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate then TFF #43 films would earn seven nominations with another three possibilities.


STONE, GOSLING AND THE MUSIC OF LA LA LAND

Variety's Jenelle Riley sat down with La La Land stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling a couple of months ago in the midst of the Toronto International Film Festival for an interview that ran just this week.  The lengthy piece also focuses on the music for the film and also includes comments from writer/director Damien Chazelle.  You can find that story here.


ARRIVAL SCENE ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR

Cinemablend reported this week that one of Amy Adams best scenes from the Denis Villenueve's Arrival ended up on the cutting room floor.  Sean O'Connell reports that the decision to excise the specific scene was so successfully acted that it actually was too revealing.  Check out the story here but BE AWARE that it does contain substantial SPOILERS.

That's your MTFB/FAC for Thursday.  More on Monday.


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