Gone Like the Wind / Roma and the Oscars

Good Monday morning...


GONE LIKE THE WIND

I grabbed this photo of the festival website on Friday morning at about 1:45 Central time (11:45 Pacific)


Almost the classic movie title but more descriptive about what happened on Friday morning when passes went on sale for the 46th Telluride Film Festival (Aug. 30-Sept. 2).  Over the past few years the window for getting passes before the sale ran out of them had gotten smaller and smaller.

Hearsay suggested that passes were gone in a week in 2017 and that it took a mere two days last year.  I watched the website in real time on Friday after getting mine secured in a sweat inducing, gut wrenching, nerve stressing 10 minute window as soon as the sale went live.  and, by my estimation, all level of passes were gone in under three hours.  Acme passes were gone first, then the Festival, then the Festival level and finally the Cinephile pass.

Patron Passes were done in a separate sale that occurred in December and, though I wasn't tracking it, seemed to also happen very, very quickly.

So, I have to suspect that, again this year, many past pass holders may have been shut out and I wonder if the fest will consider changes in structures and policies between now and next year when passes go on sale.  I contemplated the same thing last year but am not aware that any changes were made for this year's sale.

One thing is certain, the festival has become insanely popular.  I was messaging a Telluride friend about this and that including the rapidity of the sellout and he suggested that the fest has gotten "too popular". 


ROMA AND THE OSCARS

Indiewire's Anne Thompson undertakes to deconstruct Roma's Best Picture loss to Green Book in the context of the film being under the wing of streaming giant Netflix in an article over this weekend.

That article is here.

Personally, I think that was one of many of the factors that people mentioned and my guess, and it's only a guess, is that it was more a perfect storm of factors:

1) People really liked Green Book

2) Yup...there's a bias against Netflix...witness the news that no less a light than Steven Spielberg appears to be spear-heading an effort to have the Academy change rules that would make Netflix change some of its practices if it wants to continue to compete for Oscars.

But don't discount these other factors...

3) The foreign language bias.  No foreign language film has ever won the big prize and "It's got its own category" goes some thinking.

4) The black and white factor...maybe not a large consideration, but I don't think you can dismiss it.

5) The style and tone.  It's slow (especially the first half) and contemplative and very, very personal. 

Maybe it was all about the top two reasons above but maybe there were other factors as well.



That's your MTFB for this Monday...more on Thursday.


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Oscar #91 in the Books: Telluride's Spell Is Broken / Oscar Odds and Ends / And Now We Turn the Page

Welcome back from Oscarland...

OSCAR #91 IN THE BOOKS: TELLURIDE'S SPELL IS BROKEN

Here are your winners from the 91st Academy Awards from Last Night:

Best Picture: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Actress: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born
Original Score: Black Panther
Cinematography: Roma
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Design: Black Panther
Costumes: Black Panther
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Visual Effects: First Man
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
Live Action Short: Skin


OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

 
Telluride's streak of eight straight years of screening the eventual Best Picture winner ended last night with the win for Green Book.  It's the first non-TFF film to win since The Hurt Locker back in 2010.

TFF films did pick up six Oscars last night.  Roma had three: Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography.  The Favourite's Olivia Colman won for Best Actress, Free Solo won Best Documentary and First Man won for Best Visual Effects.

Multiple Oscar winning films included:

Bohemian Rhapsody-4 Actor, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Green Book-3 Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay
Roma-3 Direction Foreign Language Film and Cinematography
Black Panther-3 Production Design, Costumes and Original Score

My personal prediction success rate was 19/24 or 79.2% .  I missed Picture, Actress, Film Editing, Production Design and Live Action Short.
 
I don't know that I would classify any of last night's awards as shockers.  Late wins by Colman and Green Book were mildly surprising but looking at the list I posted last Thursday, four of the five places where I missed, I had the actual winner listed as the "Could Be" candidate.

Why'd Green Book win?  I suspect a combination of factors mostly related to the baggage that Roma had going into the season: a foreign language film in black and white from Netflix.


AND NOW WE TURN THE PAGE

Though I have played around already with looking ahead to this year's potential TFF #46 lineup, now that this year's Oscar ceremony is in the books, it's time for this space to turn back to what was originally created to do.

Oscar's in the rear view and we turn our gaze ahead and aim toward Aug. 30th and the opening day of the 46th Telluride film Festival.


I'll have more for you on Thursday.


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FINAL Oscar Predictions / The Telluride Effect Part Two / Oscar Experts Final Predictions

Thursday before Oscar...


FINAL OSCAR #91 PREDICTIONS

Best Picture:Roma  (Could be: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (Could be: Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman)
Actress: Glenn Close/The Wife (Could be: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: Christian Bale/Vice)
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk (Could be: Rachel Weisz/The Favourite OR Amy Adams/Vice)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book (Could be: Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Original Screenplay: Green Book (Could be: The Favourite)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (Could be: Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse (Could be: Incredibles 2)
Documentary Feature: Free Solo (Could be: RBG)
Foreign Language Film: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born (Could be: All the Stars/Black Panther)
Original Score: Black Panther (Could be: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Cinematography: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Film Editing: Vice (Could be: Bohemian Rhapsody)
Production Design: The Favourite (Could be: Black Panther)
Costumes: Black Panther (Could be: The Favourite)
Makeup/Hair: Vice (Could be: Mary Queen of Scots)
Visual Effects: First Man (Could be: Avengers: Infinity War)
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Animated Short: Bao (Could be: Animal Behavior)
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence (Could be: End Game)
Live Action Short: Marguerite (Could be: Any of the others)


THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART TWO

I wrote on Monday about "The Telluride Effect", the notion that a film now almost has to play Telluride to win Best Picture at the Oscars.  I reminded readers that the last decade seems to provide evidence for the theory with nine of the last ten winners having played TFF on their way to Oscar glory.

I also suggested that there might be five reasons that it could be true:

1) Reputation
2) Demographics
3) Ties to The Academy
4) Timing
5) Media Presence Increase

So, I asked a number of friends and acquaintances from the industry that are usual TFF attendees and asked them two questions:

1) Is the "Telluride Effect" real?
2) If so, why?


The first question drew mixed responses.

Film maker, Script Magazine contributor and long time Telluride Film Fest attendee Christopher Schiller writing that "it is certainly real from my observations" while Variety's Kristopher Tapley suggests that "It's potentially real."

Other respondents weren't as quick to sign on to the existence of The T-ride Effect.  Mark Johnson of Awards Circuit saying "I think it may just be lucky coincidence".  Indiewire's Eric Kohn came close to seconding Johnson's assessment claiming his belief that "it's arbitrary.

Variety's Peter DeBruge told me that it does exist as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts"  but The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg said that "there is no way to know".

To the extent that it does or might exist, many of the answers I got to the second question as to why underscored the five points I made in Monday's post.

Telluride's reputation and its programming prowess were cited by Sasha Stone of Awards Daily as she said that it is a combination of factors including "the selection committee".    Schiller says that the fest has "always had from the very first one onward" the "class of selection" and that "producers who calculate a ride to the awards...consider getting the 'right' exposure from Telluride" 

Both Schiller and DeBruge take pains to say that they don't believe any of the "effect" is the conscious design of the TFF programmers.

In as far as my second and third points, that Telluride has great demographics including a significant Academy presence, those sentiments were echoed by Tapley who commented on "the concentration of Academy members that are present" and Stone who says that the "effect" may be true in part because of "the small amount of people who attend...that make it a perfect launching site for Oscar movies."

On to my fourth observation that some of it has to do with timing.  About this there was a good deal of agreement with the general notion but the specifics differed a bit.  Schiller pointed to the festival's benefiting from the decision of the Motion Picture Academy to move the date of the Oscar ceremony forward three weeks from the end of March to the end of February or early March.  That change came in 2003.  DeBruge mentions it's fortuitous placement between Venice and Toronto but Mark Johnson had, perhaps the most pointed comment concerning timing and the Best Picture Oscar saying that screening a film at Telluride mean that producers "have time for their film to take heat and recover from it."

My fifth point was the increase in the press coverage that has happened over the last decade plus.  Again, Peter DeBruge underscored my point in his commentary saying,  "The phenomenon is bolstered by...the steep increase in press coverage at the festival."  He went on to write, "Now that many more critics-and Oscar bloggers- attend, these movies now get early adulatory coverage, as opposed to getting lost among the 300 or so movies unspooling at Toronto a week later."

So, I felt good about the things I wrote on Monday but there were a couple of other tidbits among the responses that I felt merited mentioning. 


DeBruge added that not all plans to take advantage of The Telluride Effect, if in fact it does exist, go as planned.  For every Spotlight, Moonlight or Shape of Water, TFF can also be a place where those awards dreams sometimes crash.  He says, "let's not forget the many movies that miscalculated their own merits and were met with mixed reactions/downright disappointment by the discerning viewers in the Colorado mountains"  Among the films he mentioned: Labor Day, Hyde Park on Hudson and Downsizing.

It was Schiller who posed the obvious question that I overlooked which was "Will it last?"  which is a great question.  Chris has some of the same thought that I do suggesting that the changing particulars of the awards season may mean that the "effect" may be limited saying, "the quality structure that is the heart of Telluride may not align with the awards shows' proclivities in the future."

My take on Schiller's note here is what I said Monday in my second point which is that with the conscious move by the Academy to expand and diversify TFF's effect may change as a result.

Finally, leave it to THR's Scott Feinberg to put it most succinctly, "as long as Telluride films keep winning Best Picture, I expect distributors will continue to treat the fest as a must-go place."

Will that happen Sunday night?  If you read my predictions above...I think so....but it's tight people...IT IS TIGHT...

My thanks to:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com


OSCAR EXPERTS FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here are links to the current "Final" predictions from a slew of Oscarologists:


Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Steve Pond/The Wrap


That's all for MTFB for today.  I'll be back Monday with an Oscar breakdown.


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The Telluride Effect Part One / Berlin Film Fest Closes / Ken Burns' Country / Spotlight on Free Solo

Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend and is having a great President's Day.

THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART ONE

Oscar night for 2019 is now just days away.  Final Oscar predictions from every source imaginable will be coming at you fast and furious over the next six days including in this space in Thursday's blog post.   

Some of the experts may mention "The Telluride Effect".  For those of you who are frequent readers here, the expression likely doesn't need any explanation.  For those that may not have bumped up against the term, here's an definition of sorts...The Telluride Effect suggests that for a film to win Best Picture at the Oscars it will have had to play at the Telluride Film Festival.  It does not mean the film has had to premiere at Telluride, only that it screens as a part of the festival's lineup.

The term (I think Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is actually the person who coined it) has emerged over the last decade-plus as, with one exception when The Hurt Locker won as 2009's Best Picture.

Here's the lowdown for those years:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire (premiered at Telluride)

2009: The Hurt Locker (no T-ride play)

2010: The King's Speech (premiered at Telluride)

2011: The Artist (premiered at Cannes then played Telluride)

2012: Argo (premiered at Telluride)

2013: 12 Years a Slave (premiered at Telluride)

2014: Birdman (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2015: Spotlight (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2016: Moonlight (premieres at Telluride)

2017: The Shape of Water (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

So there it is.  Nine of the last ten Best Picture winners and the last eight in a row have played Telluride and, as you can see, the most common route is to either premiere at Telluride originally or, of late, do the Venice to T-ride.  Only in the case of The Artist in the last decade has a film run through Cannes/Telluride to a Best Picture win.

This year, among the eight films nominated for Best Picture, the Telluride Effect's continuation depends on either Alfonso Cuaron's Roma or Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  If you read most Oscar experts you'll have seen that many feel Roma will win Sunday night.  I can't think of any that think The Favourite will be the big winner.  

Roma's chances appear to be reasonable.  I'd say something better than 50/50 but certainly not a lock.  Many prognosticators think Peter Farrelly's Green Book could win Sunday night.  Other, more distant possibilities might be BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther but most think it's down to Roma and Green Book.

I'll be on record on Thursday...but...hint, hint...I'm probably going to stick with the notion that The Telluride Effect continues to hold sway.

So...if it really exists, why?  You might ask.  I have a few ideas:

1) Reputation.  The fest has this string because they consistently program great film.  I think that attendees and peeps from the business pay attention to what Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and crew secure to screen over Labor Day.

2) Demographics:  The fest, it seems to me, has a clientele that, at some level, mirrors the Academy.  That's probably changing some over the past few years as the Academy has made a strong effort to expand size and diversity.

3) And speaking of the Academy...TFF and AMPAS have had a significant relationship for a while and a good chunk of the attendees each year are members of the Academy.

4) Timing:  Telluride is in a sweet, sweet spot on the calendar.  Situated at the beginning of September and between Venice and Toronto is great positioning in terms of  setting the table for the fall films that will likely dominate the Oscar conversation.

5) The media has noticed.  There has always been a media presence since I started going to Telluride (since 2006) but over the last decade that seems to have increased dramatically.  As Telluride has, at the very least coincidentally, become a harbinger for what could occur during Oscar season, the press contingent seems to have become larger making for a more dramatic Telluride impact on the awards season.  At least it feels that way to me.

There are probably other reasons but these are the five that come to mind.  I know that Sasha Stone also has frequently suggested that the AMPAS choice a few years back to move the Oscars to earlier in the year has magnified the effect of fall film fests including Telluride.

Does it happen again this year?  For a big chunk of this Oscar season, I didn't think it would but as I said above, I think it's now more likely than not but it sure isn't a lock.  

I'll have more about The Telluride Effect in Thursday's post...

BERLIN FILM FEST CLOSES

The Berlin Film Festival concluded this week with the naming of Nadiv Lapid's Synonyms as the recipient of the Golden Bear, the fests more important prize.  Also winning awards: By the Grace of God, System Crasher, I Was at Home...But, and So Long My Son.

As I have written here, it isn't uncommon for Telluride to program a couple of films that premiere at Berlin.  Last year, for example, Dovlatov played Berlin first.  In 2017, A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages all played the German fest prior to Telluride bows.

With its Silver Bear win, Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God may have moved to the front of the line for Berlin titles that could make the TFF #46 lineup.  A couple of other titles that I thought we should keep an eye lost some of their luster in that regard owing to mediocre/tepid critical response.  I'm referring to Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers and Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones.

I have linked stories about Berlin;s awards here from

Screen International

Variety

Deadline

And critical roundups for the Berlin films are linked here from:

Metacritic

Reini Urban's Compilation


KEN BURNS' COUNTRY

I wrote a couple of weeks back about Ken Burns' upcoming PBS multi-part documentary about American Country/Western music and the possibility some of that might screen at Telluride prior to its bow on PBS in September.

PBS posted a 60 second teaser for the doc featuring Marty Stuart talking about the Grand Ole Opry and its place in Nashville and Country music history.  Here it is thanks to the magic of YouTube:

SPOTLIGHT ON FREE SOLO

I have had RBG at the top of my list to win the Best Documentary Oscar on Sunday night since the nominations were announced but the last week or so, there seems to be a real undercurrent in favor of Free Solo which, of course, played Telluride last Labor Day.  Honestly, between now and Thursday when I put up my final Oscar predictions, I may switch to Free Solo to win.

No less a light than Indiewire's Anne Thompson makes a compelling case for that possibility in the story she put up on Friday.  It's not really the focus of Anne's story but shows up in it.

You can see what Anne and what the film makers and climbers had to say to Anne as well by clicking here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have a Part Two about The Telluride Effect on Thursday in addition to my final Oscar picks for Sunday night's extravaganza.

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BOLO (Be On the Lookout): Nomadland / Melissa McCarthy on Lee Israel / Oscar Buzz

Howdy, Howdy on this Thursday and Happy Valentines Day to you and your nearest and dearest.

BOLO (BE ON THE LOOKOUT): NOMADLAND

Frances McDormand in Nomadland (photo via Fox Searchlight)

I don't always include news here when I come across news of films that seem to have the right mix of ingredients to become a selection for the Telluride Film Festival.  Most of the time I note whatever it is and store away its information and whatever news I have uncovered in a "Future Telluride" file that I keep.  Periodically I'll check that file and see what, if anything has or looks like it might pan out for Labor Day weekend.

Sometimes, however, something pops up that feels like such a realistic possibility that I skip the filing altogether and one of those instances happened this week with the revelation that director Chloe Zhao was working on an under-the-radar film.

That's notable as Zhao's last film was The Rider which played TFF #44 to tremendous acclaim and was released in 2018 and earned mentions among many critics "Best Of" lists and five Spirit Award nominations including one for Best Picture.

That, by itself would have been enough for me to take notice but other factors moved the needle a bit more.  The reason that the film came to light this week was its acquisition by frequent TFF participant Fox Searchlight.  Add to that some speculation the film might be bound for Cannes (The Rider played at Cannes in the Directors Fortnight section) put it over the top for me to include on my TFF #46 watch list and also seemed to be enough fuel to warrant mentioning it here and now rather than relegating it to my "Future Telluride" collection.

The film is titled Nomadland and stars Oscar winner Frances McDormand and Oscar nominee David Stratharin and is based on Jessica Bruder's non-fiction book "Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century".

I have linked coverage of the announcement here from:

Variety

Indiewire

Ioncinema

The Playlist

And, PS...it appears that Telluride favorite and past TFF Guest Director Alexander Payne looks to be set up with his newest project described as a "Horror-Comedy".  The Playlist reports that Payne will be directing The Menu.  Both Will Ferrell and Adam McKay are also involved as producers on the project.

You can read further details here from The Playlist

MELISSA MC CARTHY ON LEE ISRAEL

Oscar nominee Melissa McCarthy is featured in a new interview with Lexy Perez for The Hollywood Reporter talking about her character, Lee Israel, from Can You Ever Forgive Me? and other topics as well.  

Read that interview here

OSCAR BUZZ

Final Oscar voting is underway (it started Tuesday) and runs until next Tuesday, Feb. 19th with the Awards themselves...in whatever form and structure it ultimately takes, on Feb. 24th.

I'll have my final predictions a week from today.

At this point my current calculation is:

Picture: Roma

Director: Cuaron/Roma

Actress: Close/The Wife

Actor: Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

Supporting Actress: Adams/Vice

Supporting Actor: Ali/Green Book

Original Screenplay: Green Book

Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman

Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Documentary Feature: RBG

Foreign Language Film: Roma

Cinematography: Roma

Film Editing: Vice

Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born

Costumes: The Favourite

Production Design: The Favourite

Makeup/Hair: Vice

Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War

Sound Editing: First Man

Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born

Animated Short: Bao

Doc Short: Period. End of Sentence.

Live Action Short: Marguerite

TFF #45 Films winning if I'm 100% accurate:

Roma (4): Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

The Favourite (2): Costumes. Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Other winners:

Vice (3): Supporting Actress, Film Editing, Makeup/Hair

Green Book (2): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay

A Star Is Born (2): Song, Sound Mixing

Single wins:

Bohemian Rhapsody-Actor

The Wife-Actress

BlacKkKlansman-Adapted Screenplay

Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse-Animated Feature

RBG-Documentary Feature

If Beale Street Could Talk-Original Score

Avengers: Infinity War-Visual Effects

Shorts- Bao, Period. End of Sentence, Marguerite.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  More on Monday...


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The Directors Fete Cuaron / My Current Oscar Predictions in Ten Categories / Country Music In Telluride? / Rumors of a New Cannes Policy

Welcome to February Ladies and Germs...


THE DIRECTORS FETE CUARON

Photo via Reuters

The Directors Guild of America awarded Alfonso Cuaron their highest honor for feature film making on Saturday night naming him the 2018's outstanding director for Roma.

Some of the Oscarati (the Oscar punditry class...of which, by dint of my presence as a Movie City Guru of Gold, I guess I am now a member) are suggesting that the win points to Roma as the likely front runner for Oscar's Best Picture trophy.

I've had Roma at the top of my predix for about a month now and the DGA win makes me breathe a little easier...but not much.  I still think the Best Picture race is incredibly fluid with Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, A Star Is Born and Black Panther...maybe even Bohemian Rhapsody as possible winners when the envelope gets opened on Feb. 24th.

At any rate, Cuaron wins his second DGA in five years (after winning for Gravity) and is very likely to win the directing Oscar now as well regardless of how the Best Picture race shakes out.  It appears Roma could win Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography.  Should that happen, Cuaron might well walk off the stage with four trophies...

DGA coverage is linked here from Variety and also from Indiewire.


MY CURRENT OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN TEN CATEGORIES

Here's my latest take on predicting Oscar winners in select categories...

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) Green Book
4) A Star Is Born
5) Black Panther
6) Bohemian Rhapsody
7) Vice
8) The Favourite

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
3) Adam McKay/Vice
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War

ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Amy Adams/Vice
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
5) Maris de Tavira/Roma

ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice***
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody***
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) Willem Dafoe/At Etrenity's Gate

***although this feels squeaky close now

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) First Reformed


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me
4) A Star Is Born
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Shoplifters
4) Capernaum
5) Never Look Away

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) RBG
2) Free Solo
3) Minding the Gap
4) Hale County This Evening-This Morning
5) Of Fathers and Sons

Final Oscar voting begins next week on Feb. 12th.



COUNTRY MUSIC IN TELLURIDE?

Photo via IMDb

Ken Burns latest multi-part documentary focuses on the history of country music in these United States.  The venerable documentarian's eight part 16+ hour presentation is set to premiere on PBS on Sept. 15th.

That means, as many Telluride veterans will surmise, that some of the Burns doc (or, hell, maybe all of the Burns doc) could well shoe up at The SHOW.

I certainly would be less than stunned if that were the case.  I could also foresee the possible inclusion of some of the individuals Burns includes in the doc as guests to the festival.  Maybe even a concert or two.

The Los Angeles Times posted a lengthy story about the project on Friday that you can find linked here.  Some folks that are reported to be included in the doc (and therefore fair game for TFF #46 speculation are: Vince Gill (who of late has been serving as a stand-in Eagle...but their current bookings only run to July 4th), Emmylou Harris (yes please) and Roseanne Cash.



RUMORS OF A NEW CANNES POLICY

Perhaps stung by last year's inability to strike a deal with Netflix to screen many of the films that the streaming giant had in its film pantry (such as, you know, Roma), The Playlist was reporting this weekend that the world's most famous film festival may have an offer for Netflix to consider in an attempt to lure some of its titles to the Croisette in May.

Charles Barfield wrote that a french journalist was tweeting...yes, I know, it sounds pretty shaky...that Cannes would offer to allow/invite Netflix titles to play in competition with the stipulation that should one of their films win an award that it would then be required to screen in French theaters.

The Playlist story does not suggest that the French law that requires a three year window between theatrical release and streaming would be altered in any way and that was the reported impasse in the past.

Why is this of interest to Telluride Film fans?  Because of the longtime record of films that the two fests have shared over the decades.  In the years since I've been attending (since 2006), the average overlap has been 7-8 films each year.  That's the most significant statistical correlation with any film festival.  So, what happens at Cannes almost always has some ripple effect regarding the TFF lineup for that year.

The complete story from The Playlist is linked here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday including a look at Oscar predictions for another seven categories.

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Nomination Analysis / Experts Predict Oscar Winners / Film Fest Spec from Screen Daily

Good Thursday.  Here's your latest from MTFB


OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

A couple of added points here that I didn't touch on Tuesday's special post...

The max number of total Oscars that TFF films could win is 18 as there are at least one TFF film nominated in 18 of the 24 categories.  Six categories have no TFF film nominated at all and thus cannot produce a TFF winner.  They are Best Actor, Animated Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short and Documentary Short.

Of course, that total is unlikely.  Below I have linked to some of the early predictions about possible winners in each category and what that suggests might be the total trophy take on Oscar night, Feb. 24th.

EXPERTS PREDICT OSCAR WINNERS

I have linked here the early Oscar winner predictions from experts with their view of which TFF films win what Oscars on Feb. 24th

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott's predicted TFF winners include:

Roma (4): Best Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

First Man (1): Visual Effects

For a total of five wins.  Scott foresees The Favourite not winning from any of its field leading (tied with Roma) 10 nominations.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha's home page right hand column seems to point the way to here early Oscar thinking and it has the following stabs at TFF winners:

Roma (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

First Reformed (TFF #44-1) Original Screenplay

First Man (2): Sound Editing, Visual Effects

Total of six wins.

Gold Derby's Odds

Roma (4): Best Picture (odds are tied with A Star Is Born), Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

The Favourite (3): Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Total of eight wins.

FILM FEST SPEC FROM SCREEN DAILY

Renee Zellweger in Judy via IMDb

I have been tracking a series of articles from Screen Daily that they have labeled "Films to Tempt Festival Directors" in an attempt to get an early line on some titles that might be on the TFF #46 lineup.

The latest installment focuses on films from the UK and Ireland.  It's a list of 13 films and among them, these are the titles that standout to me as potential players at Telluride:

Untitled Girls Film directed by Sarah Gavron

Greed directed by Michael Winterbottom

Judy directed by  Rupert Goold

Radioactive directed by Marjane Satrapi

Sorry We Missed You directed by Ken Loach

The complete post from Screen Daily is linked here.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend.

And the Nominees Are...

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominees for the 91st Academy Awards this morning and here they are:

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma

2) Green Book

3) A Star Is Born

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) Black Panther

6) Vice

7) Bohemian Rhapsody

8) The Favourite

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma

2) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War

3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman

4) Adam McKay/Vice

5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife

2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite

3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born

4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice

2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born

4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book

5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk

2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite

3) Emma Stone/The Favourite

4) Amy Adams/Vice

5) Marina De Tavira/Roma

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book

2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born

4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman

5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book

2) The Favourite

3) Roma

4) Vice

5) First Reformed

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman

2) If Beale Street Could Talk

3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4) A Star Is Born

5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

2) Incredibles 2

3) Isle of Dogs

4) Marai

5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Hale County This Morning-This Evening

2) RBG

3) Free Solo

4) Minding the Gap

5) Of Fathers and Sons

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma

2) Cold War

3) Capernaum

4) Shoplifters

5) Never Look Away

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) Never Look Away

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

FILM EDITING

1) Green Book

2) Bohemian Rhapsody

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Border

3) Mary Queen of Scots

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) BlacKkKlansman

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

5) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Bohemian Rhapsody

4) Roma

5) Black Panther

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Christopher Robin

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Solo: A Star Wars Story

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) One Small Step

3) Weekends

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3)A Night at the Garden

4) Lifeboat

5) Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Mother

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

Telluride films that were nominated were:

Roma (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Supporting Actress (De Tavira), Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing

The Favourite (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes

Roma and The Favourite were tied with the most nominations and the only films in double digit nominations.

First Man (4): Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (Man, how could have been so off about First Man in every possible way.  I thought it was headed for at least eight nominations this morning...and, of course, still thought it could stretch into the Best Picture race...)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (3): Foreign Language Film, Direction, Cinematography

Free Solo (1): Best Documentary

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Border (1): Makeup/Hair

Fauve (1): Live Action Short

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

I'll have more on Thursday...