Ten Bets #5 / Toronto Films-An Evolving List / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride / Women Talking Where?

 TEN BETS #5

Here's your weekly look at my take on films that I think are the TFF #49 choices. First, a refresher for last week's Ten Bets plus other possibilities:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Women Talking/Polley

5) Aftersun/Wells

6) Bardo/Inarritu

7) TAR/Fields

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio

And here are your latest Ten Bets:

 

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Armageddon Time/Gray

5) Bardo/Inarritu

6) TAR/Fields

7) Women Talking/Polley

8) Aftersun/Wells

9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik.

Notes: Armageddon Time moves up as do Bardo and TAR.  Women Talking  drops a bit based on a World of Reel story you will find below.

I've moved Babylon off the list of possibilities for the time being though it could slide back on.  I've put Andrew Dominik's Blonde back on based on persistent buzz that the film will screen at Venice.

TORONTO FILMS - AN EVOLVING LIST

TIFF is using a drip-drip-drip method of announcing World Premieres that they haven't used before.  As that list grows, I will be posting so we know which films are at TIFF and won't be at TFF#49. Those announced to date are:

Green Onions: A Knives Out Mystery

Brother

Bros

On the Come Up

The Woman King

My Policeman

and Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel says The Greatest Beer Run Ever will also be a TIFF World Premiere.

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLURIDE (and Venice and Toronto)

Following their weekly podcast that focused on the Big Three fall film fests. Matt Neglia and the Next Best Picture crew posted a written version of their guesses nd predictions for what films are going where.  Here that is with films that I have on the Ten Bets list and/or as possibilities indicates with ***

TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

Aftersun (Dir. Charlotte Wells)***

​Armageddon Time (Dir. James Gray)***

Bardo (Dir. Alejandro González Iñárritu)***

Broker (Dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

Close (Dir. Lukas Dhont)***

Decision To Leave (Dir. Park Chan-wook)

EO (Dir. Jerzy Skolimowski)

Holy Spider (Dir. Ali Abbasi)***

The Master Gardener (Dir. Paul Schrader)***

One Fine Morning (Dir. Mia Hansen-Løve)***

​The Pale Blue Eye (Dir. Scott Cooper) - WORLD PREMIERE***

See How They Run (Dir. Tom George) - WORLD PREMIERE

She Said (Dir. Maria Schrader) - WORLD PREMIERE***

Showing Up (Dir. Kelly Reichardt)***

The Son (Dir. Florian Zeller) - WORLD PREMIERE***

Tár (Dir. Todd Field)***

Tori and Lokita (Dir. The Dardenne Brothers)***

Triangle Of Sadness (Dir. Ruben Östlund)

The Whale (Dir. Darren Aronofsky)

​Women Talking (Dir. Sarah Polley) - WORLD PREMIERE***

As you can see, there is extensive overlap between the NBP list and my Ten Bets.  NBP has five films listed that I don't and any of the five wouldn't be a real shocker if included: Decision to Leave, EO, See How They Run, Triangle of Sadness or The Whale.

Here's what Matt and the NBP folks have as Venice premieres that would jump the Atlantic to play at TFF a couple of days later:

Bardo, The Master Gardener, TAR and The Whale.  Another note...NBP has Andrew Dominik's Blonde playing both Venice and Toronto but not T-ride.  So...to anyone with any juice at Netflix or within the programmers at TFF...hear my plea that Blonde makes a stop in Colorado between the two.

Here is the complete NBP post.

WOMEN TALKING WHERE?

Another Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel post of interest this week was the buzz about which fall fest was going to land Sarah Polley's Women Talking as a World Premiere.  I have felt relatively confident that it would play Telluride as Polley has made the trip to the San Juans previously but who knows?

Ruimy suggests that Toronto wants it very badly as a WP and should Polley and distributor United Artists/Orion go that way...no TFF #49.  If Venice lands it, TFF #49 remains a possibility.  Of course Polley's last feature length film, the doc Stories We Tell, did the Venice/Telluride dance in 2012 but the distributor there was Roadside Attractions.

Stay tuned.

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TFF Oscar Streak Continues / 2021 Oscar Rundown

 TFF OSCAR STREAK CONTINUES

The Telluride Film Festival didn't happen for the 2020-21 Oscar season and still managed to extend its streak of having scheduled and screened (at a drive-in) the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner.  11 of the last 13 Oscar winning Best Pictures screened as a part of the festival.  The only two exceptions have been The Hurt Locker for 2009 and Green Book for 2018.

Here's the run:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The King's Speech

2011: The Artist

2012: Argo

2013: 12 Years a Slave

2014: Birdman

2015: Spotlight

2016: Moonlight

2017: The Shape of Water

2019: Parasite

2020: Nomadland

2021 OSCAR RUNDOWN

Here are the winners of the 2021 Academy Awards:

Best Picture: Nomadland. 

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,

Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Nomadland

Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.

Best International Feature: Another Round. 

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher.

Best Animated Feature: Soul. 

Best Original Score: Soul. 

Best Original Song: Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Cinematography: Mank.

Best Editing: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank. 

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. 

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Sound: Sound of Metal. 

Best Visual Effects: Tenet. 

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You. 

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  

Best Documentary Short: Colette

Nomadland led the way with three wins- Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Actress-on a night when The Academy really did share the wealth.  Its wins along with the two for The Father- Best Actor and  Best Adapted Screenplay-gave TFF #47 a respectable total of five Oscars.

The Father' double win was part of a substantial list of two win films on the night.

The rundown of wins by film:

Nomadland- 3- Picture, Direction, Actress.

The Father- 2- Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Soul- 2- Animated Feature, Score

Judas and the Black Messiah- 2- Supporting Actor, Song

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom- 2- Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Sound of Metal- 2- Editing, Sound

Mank- 2- Production Design, Cinematography

Single feature film wins for: Minari, Promising Young Woman, Another Round, My Octopus Teacher and Tenet.

On a personal level:

I correctly predicted 16 of the 23 categories with an additional four statues going to films that I listed as Upset Specials. That's just shy of 70% which is under my average (79.6%) for the past several years.

My biggest surprise of the evening was McDormand winning Best Actress.  I really did not believe she's win again so soon after her Three Billboards win.

Now we gear up with some seriousness of purpose working under the assumption the Telluride happens in 19 weeks to suss out what its lineup looks will look like.

Back to it!

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MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

 FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS FOR TONIGHT

Best Picture: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,  Upset Special: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman.

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  Upset Special: Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.  Upset Special: Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best International Feature: Another Round. Upset Special: Quo Vadis Aida.

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher,. Upset Special: Crip Camp.

Best Animated Feature: Soul.  Upset Special: Wolfwalkers.

Best Original Score: Soul.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Original Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami.  Upset Special: Io Si/The Life Ahead.

Best Cinematography: Nomadland.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7.  Upset Special: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Emma.

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Hillbilly Elegey

Best Sound: Sound of Metal.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Visual Effects: Tenet.  Upset Special: The Midnight Sky.

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You.  Upset Special: Burrow.

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  Upset Special:  Feeling Through.

Best Documentary Short: A Concerto Is a Conversation.  Upset Special: A Love Song for Latasha

TFF Stats:

Nomadland nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.  I am predicting it to win four: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

The Father nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.  I have predicted that it wins no Oscars tonight BUT...Hopkins is the Upset Special for Best Actor and his buzz has been growing for the past couple of weeks.  The Father is also the Upset Special for Adapted Screenplay.  

The only other TFF #47 is the Live Action Short nominee The Letter Room.

The most Oscars that TFF #47 films could snag in total tonight is 10.

The categories that feel to me like the ones that are going to be Oscar poll deciders are: Best Actress, the two screenplay categories,  Documentary, Song and, as always, the Shorts categories.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to a number of Oscarologists for tonight's winners:

Sasha Stone/ Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Variety

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold/Awards Daily.

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Indiewire (Screen Talk podcast)

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience 

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia (and crew)/Next Best Picture

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

And of course, for the last time this Oscar season, the link to the final collective predictions of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.

I'll have some post Oscar thoughts in tomorrow's regularly scheduled edition of MTFB.

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Oscar Winners Predix #7: Picture, Director and Lead Acting Categories / Last Gurus of Gold for This Season / New Cousins Project-Could It Play TFF #48?

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX #7- PICTURE, DIRECTOR, LEAD ACTING CATEGORIES

Here's my next to last attempt to predict this year's Academy Awards winners.  THE FINAL MTFB OSCAR PICKS will go up on Sunday morning.  As always, TFF participants are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Promising Young Woman

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTION

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) Emerald Ferrell/Promising Young Woman

3) David Fincher/Mank

4) Lee Issac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

4) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

LAST GURUS OF GOLD FOR THIS SEASON 

The last Gurus of gold for this Oscar season is expected to drop at Movie City News in the next day or two.  You can expect to see collected takes from all of the Gurus for all 23 Oscar categories including the Short Film categories.

Other Gurus include Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, Peter Howell of the Toronto Star, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist, Dave Karger of Turner Classic Movies and Steve Pond of The Wrap among others.

Bit of a Disclaimer: My predictions you see for the Gurus could have changed by Sunday morning!

NEW COUSINS PROJECT-COULD IT PLAY TFF #48?

Variety has a new interview out with film maker Mark Cousins that's focused on his new film The Story of Looking.  The article reveals that the film will be screened as a work in progress at the Swedish Visions du Real Festival.

The screening suggests that the new project could and likely will be available come Labor Day weekend.  Cousins has had an extensive track record at Telluride over the last several years with screenings of The Story of Film: An Odyssey, A Story of Children and Film and What Is This Film Called Love?

So, don't be surprised when the Telluride #48 lineup is announced if it includes The Story of Looking. 

The complete Variety article is linked here.

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Oscar Winners Predix #4: Lead Acting, Score, Song and Sound / DGA Awards Some Telluride Players / Speaking of Directors / BAFTA Winners

 OSCAR PREDIX #4: LEADING ACTOR, SCORE, SONG AND SOUND

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than two weeks left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the lead acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Score, Song and Sound for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

4) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

Note: This race is really tight, so it seems, with Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan neck and neck and just a hair in front of Frances McDormand and Andra Day.  I have Mulligan in the top spot but that could change by Oscar morning when I will be posting my final predictions in all 23 categories.

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

Note: Boseman stills seems to be the easy choice here but Hopkins BAFTA win yesterday does give one a little bit of a pause.

BEST SCORE

1) Soul

2) Mank

3) Minari

4) News of the World

5) Da 5 Bloods

Note: Soul is a prohibitive favorite.

BEST SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead

3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

4) Husavik/Eurovision 

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Note: A fairly competitive category with Speak Now and Io Si (Seen) very close and a win for either Fight for You not out of the question.

BEST SOUND

1) Sound of Metal

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Soul

5) Greyhound

Note: Sound of Metal is a prohibitive favorite.

THE DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS SOME TELLURIDE PLAYERS

The Directors Guild of America named their winners for excellence for 2020/21 and a couple of the big awards went to directors who would have been in Telluride last September had the fest been able to occur.

Chloe Zhao was named Best Director for a feature film for Nomadland and Michael and Gregory Kershaw were named Best Director for The Truffle Hunters.  Both films were listed by the Telluride Film Festival as films that would have played at the 47th edition.

The complete list of winners can be found here at the DGA website.

SPEAKING OF DIRECTORS

Jane Campion (via Variety)

As I was writing about the DGA results, I saw that Variety's Clayton Davis had re-posted an article named "Directors Whose Work We're Excited to See in 2021".  So, here's the f=directors from that list that have been to Telluride before and the projects that we expect to appear before the end of the year:

Andrea Arnold/Cow

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen/The Tragedy of MacBeth

Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

Tom McCarthy/Stillwater

Denis Villenueve/Dune

Chloe Zhao/The Eternals

The complete list and more is linked here.

BAFTA WINNERS

Nomadland had a really fine night last night at the awards ceremony for the British Academy of Television Arts and Sciences winning four of the organizations Golden Masks.

Chloe Zhao's examination of the wanderers that make up a large community of R.V. dwellers in the American west won Best Picture as well Zhao for Best Director, Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Best Cinematography.

Florian Zeller's The Father also pulled off a major upset and a minor upset.  Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category while Zeller and Christopher Hampton won Best Adapted Screenplay over Zhao for her Nomadland screenplay.

You can find the complete listing of BAFTA winners here from The Hollywood Reporter.

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Oscar Update: Animated Feature, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Song /Gurus: The Second Batch / SAG Awards and TFF / BAFTA and Telluride

OSCAR UPDATE

In today's post I am updating nomination predictions in five categories.  The film's previous ranking is to the right in parentheses. TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Soul (1)

2) Wolfwalkers (2)

3) Over the Moon (3)

4) Onward (4)

5) Earwig and the Witch (8)

6) A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (5)

7) The Croods: A New Age (9)

8) Trolls: World Tour (7)

9) The Willoughbys (6)

10) Demon Slayer (10)

Other Possibles: Lupin III

Hot: Earwig and the Witch, The Croods: A New Age

Not: The Willoughbys

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Nomadland (2)

2) Mank (1)

3) News of the World (3)

4) Tenet (4)

5) Judas and the Black Messiah (5)

6) Da 5 Bloods (8)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)

8) Minari (6)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

10) First Cow (10)

Other Possibles: One Night in Miami, Midnight Sky, I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Not: Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

FILM EDITING

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (2)

3) Tenet (5)

4) News of theWorld (4)

5) Mank (3)

6) The Father (6)

7) Da 5 Bloods (9)

8) One Night in Miami (8)

9) Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

Other Possibles: Promising Young Woman, Minari, Sound of Metal

Hot: Da 5 Bloods

Not: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Soul (1)

2) News of the World (2)

3) Midnight Sky (4)

4) Mank (3)

5) Tenet (6)

6) Minari (5)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

10) The Little Things (9)

Other Possible: Hillbilly Elegy

Hot: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Mank

ORIGINAL SONG

1) One Night in Miami/Speak Now (1)

2) The Life Ahead/Seen (2)

3) Over the Moon/Rocket to the Moon (3)

4) The Prom/Wear Your Crown (4)

5) The Trial of the Chicago 7/Hear My Voice (5)

6) Eurovision/Husavik (6)

7) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm/ Wuhan Flu (7)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah/Fight for You (10)

9) Trolls: World Tour/Just Sing (8)

10) Mank/If Only You Could Save Me (9)

Other Possibles: Miss Americana/Only the Young, Onward/Carried Me with You, 40 Year Old Version/Poverty Porn

Hot/Not: A really stable category right now.

GURUS: THE SECOND BATCH

The second wave of collective predictions from The Movie City News' Gurus of Gold was up just before the weekend.  Categories include: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Documentary and International Feature.

Check out the latest from my fellow Gurus here.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild nominees were announced and TFF films produced three nominees;  Anthony Hopkins was nominated for Best actor and Olivia Colman for Best Supporting Actress fpr TFF #47 announced film The Father.  Hopkins would have been one of 2020's Tribute recipients had the fest been able to go on.  Frances McDormand was nominated for Best Actress for Nomadland.

All three actors are currently predicted to be Oscar nominees in their respective categories by MTFB.

Here's a link to the complete list of SAG nominees from Variety.

BAFTA LONG LISTS AND TELLURIDE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) released their long lists of potential nominees for film this past week.  This is the first listing of films that could eventually be nominated for BAFTA awards.

Among the films named to the list were six from the TFF #7 and one from TFF #46.  In a bit of a surprise the most named TFF #47 film was Francis Lee's Ammonite with nine mentions followed by both Nomadland and The Father with eight.

Ammonite's long list mentions were for: Best British Film, Best Actress (Kate Winlset), Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup and Hair, Score and Production Design.

Nomaldland is listed for Best Film, Direction (Chloe Zhao), Actress (Frances McDormand), Supporting Actor (David Stratharin), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Films Editing and Sound.

The Father is listed for Best Film, Best British Film, Direction (Florian Zeller), Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing and Production Design.

Other TFF films making the long lists were:

The Truffle Hunters with two: Best Film in a Language Other than English and Best Documentary.

All In: The Fight for Democracy: Best Documentary

MLK/FBI: Best Documentary

And from TFF #46- The Assistant with three mentions: Best Direction (Kitty Green), Best Actress (Julia Garner) and Original Screenplay

The complete long lists are linked here from BAFTA's website.

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Golden Globe Nominations Announced / Oscar Updates: Direction, Screenplays and More / New Look at The Father / All Hail Hal Holbrook

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Oscar Update: Picture and Acting / Awards News This Week / Cannes Moves

 OSCAR UPDATE: PICTURE AND ACTING

Six weeks away from the announcement of nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards means that I need to begin consolidating categories for more efficient and more frequently updating of all of the 23 categories (remember Sound Editing and Mixing has been combined into a single category for this year's awards).  Also, keep an eye open over at Movie City News' Gurus of Gold for further updates from the community of us that are this year's Gurus.  A new post should be coming from that quarter soon.

From me today are updates for Best Picture and all the acting categories.  The charts show my current expectation in order of the likelihood of nomination.  The number in parentheses to the right is the position that predicted candidate had here the last time I posted (Best Picture, Actress and Actor were on Jan. 18 and the Supporting Acting categories was on Jan. 21)  As always, predicted nominees from TFF are in Bold

BEST PICTURE 

1) Nomadland (1)

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

3) Minari (5)

4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6)

5) Da 5 Bloods (-)

6) Mank (3)

7) One Night in Miami (4)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)

9) News of the World (8)

10) Promising Young Woman (10)

Other Possibles:  Sound of Metal, Soul, First Cow, The Father

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Mank, One Night in Miami, The Father

BEST ACTRESS

1) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)

3) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (4)

4) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (2)

5) Zendaya/Malcom and Marie (-)

6) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (5)

7) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (10)

8) Sidney Flanigan/Never Sometimes Rarely Always (7)

9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (-)

10) Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth (-)

Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Kate Winslet/Ammonite

Hot: Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie, Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead, Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy, Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth

Not: Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit, Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

2) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (4)

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)

4) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (2)

5) Gary Oldman/Mank (6)

6) Steven Yeun/Minari (5)

7) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (9)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (8)

9) Tom Hanks/News of the World (7)

10) John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie (-)

Other Possibles: LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah, Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round

Hot:Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Ben Affleck/The Way Back, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie

Not: Anthony Hopkins/The Father, Tom Hanks/News of the World, LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (1)

2) Olivia Colman/The Father (3)

3) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (2)

4) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (5)

5) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (4)

6) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

7) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah (-)

8) Jodie Foster/The Mauritainian (7)

9) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (9)

10) Helena Zengel/News of the World (8)

Other Possibles: Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal, Candace Bergen/Let Them Talk

Hot: Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah

Not: Helena Zengel/News of the World

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (1)

2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (2)

4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (5)

6) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (6)

7) David Stratharin/Nomadland (9)

8) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)

9) Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

10) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (7)

Other Possibles: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Hot: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, David Stratharin/Nomadland

Not: Stanley Tucci/Supernova

AWARDS NEWS THIS WEEK

Nominations coming this week from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are the two biggest Awards Season harbingers that will occur this week.  The Globes will announce their nominees on Wednesday morning, Feb. 3rd.  SAG nominations will pop on Thursday, Feb. 4th.

Other awards news this week...BAFTA announces their longlists for nomination possibilities on Thursday.

The IPA's Satellite Awards nominations are to be announced today.

CANNES MOVES...

We found out this week that the Cannes Film Festival will move from its traditional May dates to July this year as again, Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the world's film fests.  The Playlist reports that the new dates are July 6-17.

Of primary concern to TFF adherents are whether and to what extent there might be an effect on films that could play at Telluride.  It's no secret that the two fests often share a number of titles in a normal year. 

One has to wonder if that normal overlap changes this year because of the later Cannes?  Will the French fest now have a later date for announcing their lineup?  Almost assuredly.  It also means that TFF programmers that usually get to see the Cannes wares in May will have a shorter window to work with in terms of programming.

From a prognosticators viewpoint, it means that we'll have a longer period of greater uncertainty.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

And wither Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch?  The film is all but certain to play whatever version of Cannes that exists in July and the current scuttlebutt is that it will be a September release.  Does the Cannes delay make it more or less likely that Anderson finally makes an appearance with a film at Telluride?

All good questions.  I'll try as best I can to answer some of them over the next few weeks.

Here's The Playlist's coverage of the Cannes announcement.

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Oscar Updates: Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay / Online Film Critics Announce Nominations

OSCAR UPDATES: SUPPORTING ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

 I'm continuing what I began last Monday with an acceleration of updating Oscar nomination predictions as we move closer to the announcement on Feb. 28th.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 31st.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (1)

2) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (3)

3) Olivia Colman/The Father (2)

4) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (6)

5) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (4)

6) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (5)

7) Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian (9)

8) Helena Zengel/News of the World (7)

9) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (8)

10) Candace Bergen/Let Them Talk (10)

Other Possibles: Dominique Fischback/Judas and the Black Messiah, Julianne Moore/The Glorias

Hot: Youn Yuh-jung/Minari, Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian

Hey think about: Valerie Mahaffrey/French Exit, Swankie/Nomadland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Jan. 4th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (3)

2) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (2)

3) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (6)

6) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (5)

7) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (7)

8) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)

9) David Stratharin/Nomadland (9)

10) Charles Turman/Mank (10)

Other Possibles: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Yayha Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Hot: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah

Not: Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Hey think about: Arliss Howard/Mank, Will Patton/Minari

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Jan. 7th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Nomadland (1)

2) One Night in Miami (3)

3) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (4)

4) The Father (2)

5) News of the World (5)

6) First Cow (6) (TFF #46)

7) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (7)

8) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (8)

9) Pieces of a Woman (10)

10) The White Tiger (-)

Other Possibles: The Mauritanian, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Hot: The White Tiger

Not: The Mauritanian

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Original Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Jan. 11th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Promising Young Woman (2)

3) Mank (3)

4) Minari (4)

5) Soul (5)

6) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (7)

7) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) Sound of Metal (9)

10) Palm Springs (10)

Other Possibles: Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The 40 Year Old Version, Ammonite

Hot: Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Not: Judas and the Black Messiah

ONLINE FILM CRITICS ANNOUNCE NOMINATIONS

Earlier this week the Online Film Critics Society announced its nominees for film excellence in 2020.  Here's how TFF  films fared:

Nomadland: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography

First Cow (TFF #46): Best Picture, Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography

The Father: Best Actor (Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Colman)

The complete list from the OFCS is linked here from Awards Watch.

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