Oscar Nomination Analysis / Experts Predict Oscar Winners / Film Fest Spec from Screen Daily

Good Thursday.  Here's your latest from MTFB


OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

A couple of added points here that I didn't touch on Tuesday's special post...

The max number of total Oscars that TFF films could win is 18 as there are at least one TFF film nominated in 18 of the 24 categories.  Six categories have no TFF film nominated at all and thus cannot produce a TFF winner.  They are Best Actor, Animated Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short and Documentary Short.

Of course, that total is unlikely.  Below I have linked to some of the early predictions about possible winners in each category and what that suggests might be the total trophy take on Oscar night, Feb. 24th.

EXPERTS PREDICT OSCAR WINNERS

I have linked here the early Oscar winner predictions from experts with their view of which TFF films win what Oscars on Feb. 24th

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott's predicted TFF winners include:

Roma (4): Best Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

First Man (1): Visual Effects

For a total of five wins.  Scott foresees The Favourite not winning from any of its field leading (tied with Roma) 10 nominations.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha's home page right hand column seems to point the way to here early Oscar thinking and it has the following stabs at TFF winners:

Roma (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

First Reformed (TFF #44-1) Original Screenplay

First Man (2): Sound Editing, Visual Effects

Total of six wins.

Gold Derby's Odds

Roma (4): Best Picture (odds are tied with A Star Is Born), Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

The Favourite (3): Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Total of eight wins.

FILM FEST SPEC FROM SCREEN DAILY

Renee Zellweger in Judy via IMDb

I have been tracking a series of articles from Screen Daily that they have labeled "Films to Tempt Festival Directors" in an attempt to get an early line on some titles that might be on the TFF #46 lineup.

The latest installment focuses on films from the UK and Ireland.  It's a list of 13 films and among them, these are the titles that standout to me as potential players at Telluride:

Untitled Girls Film directed by Sarah Gavron

Greed directed by Michael Winterbottom

Judy directed by  Rupert Goold

Radioactive directed by Marjane Satrapi

Sorry We Missed You directed by Ken Loach

The complete post from Screen Daily is linked here.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend.

Golden Globes And TFF / Producers Guild Names Nominees / Gurus o' Gold / ACE Nominates for Eddies / New Video (Old Man and the Gun) and Trailer (Cold War) / Tapley's New Predix for Oscar

Week Two of the New Year begins today...hope it's working out for you.  OSCAR voting starts TODAY! Editors (see below) Cinematographers, Sound Editors, Writers and Directors Guilds all announce their 2018 nominees today.

GOLDEN GLOBES

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out its annual Golden Globe awards for excellence in film and television last night.  TFF films are Bold.

Best Film/Drama: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Film Comedy/Musical: Green Book

Best Actress/Drama: Glenn Close/The Wife

Best Actress Comedy/Musical: Olivia Colman/The Favourite

Best Actor/Drama: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actor Musical/Drama: Christian Bale/Vice

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book

Best Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma

Best Screenplay: Green Book

Best Foreign Film: Roma

Best Animated Film: Spiderman; Into the Spider verse

Best Score: First Man

Best Song: Shallow from A Star Is Born

Overall, Telluride films scored a total of four Globes: Roma (2-Foreign Language Film and Direction), The Favourite (1-Best ACtress/Musical-Comedy) and First Man (1-Best Score).  Green Book had three and Bohemian Rhapsody had two and they were big awards for Best Film/Drama and Best Actor Drama.

A Star Is Born was shut out of wins in the four main categories it was nominated for (Picture/Daram, Actress/Drama, Supporting Actor and Direction winning only Best Song.  That was something of a stunner as the Gurus o' Gold had the film as a unanimous favorite to win Best Picture/Drama.

PRODUCERS GUILD NAMES NOMINEES

Friday the Producers Guild of America (PGA) named their nominees for a variety of Film and Television categories.  Their 10 film list for Best of 2018:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

The documentaries nominated by the PGA were (previously announced on Nov. 20th):

The Dawn Wall
Free Solo
Hal
Into the Okavango
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor

Animated Features nominated:

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Three TFF #45 films made the PGA cut: The Favourite and Roma among theatrical films and Free Solo among documentaries.

Complete nominees coverage is linked here from Indiewire.


GURUS O' GOLD

The latest Movie City News' Gurus o' Gold went up on Saturday and included predictions for the two Best Picture Golden Globes categories.  Those, of course, are now known.  Also included is the latest snapshot of the Oscar Best Picture race.

Take a gander at the most recent Gurus guesses here.



ACE NOMINATES FOR EDDIES

The American Cinema Editors named their nominees fro excellence in film editing for film and television this morning.  TFF #45 films nominated included: Roma and First Man in the Film/Drama category, The Favourite in the Film/Comedy category, Free Solo in the Documentary category and in the Non-theatrical film category: A Final Cut for Orson: 40 Years in the Making, a short documentary about the recovery of Orson Welles The Other Side of the Wind.

The complete list of nominees is linked here from The Wrap.


NEW VIDEO AND TRAILER

Fox Searchlight released nine and a half minutes or so of David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun on Friday.  Here that is from YouTube:

The film is now available to stream.

Meanwhile, Amazon Studios dropped a new trailer for Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War this weekend as well.  Here it is:

TAPLEYS' NEW PREDICTIONS FOR OSCAR

Variety's InContention Awards expert, Kristopher Tapley had updated Oscar predictions Saturday ahead of the Golden Globes.

Telluride films included in his predictions include:

Roma (8): Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Foreign Language Film

The Favourite (7): Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (6): Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

First Reformed (2): Actor, Original Screenplay***TFF #44

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Free Solo (1): Documentary

Border (1); Makeup/Hair

A couple of notes...

If Tapley is 100% accurate, TFF #45 feature films earn 30 Oscar nominations.  TFF #44 (First Reformed) gets 2.

Tapley has no picks in the Shorts categories in this latest set of predictions and TFF #45 could snag an additional nomination or two there.

First Man now looks like it will be the most nominated film that doesn't get a Best Picture nomination.  I am dismayed.

I'm also a little surprised that both Can You Ever Forgive Me with a probable two acting nominations and a screenplay nod isn't more in the Best Picture conversation.  Same for First Reformed for the same reasons.

Tapley's inclusion of Pawlikowski for his direction of Cold War is a bold choice but I'd be stunned if that actually happens.

Here's Tapley's complete set of Oscar predictions.

And speaking of Tapley, Kris has kept up an annual tradition by posting his selections for the ten best individual shots from 2018 films at Variety.  That list with commentary went up on the Variety.com site in late December.

Among the films/shots included were TFF #45 and TFF #44 films (photos from Tapley's Variety.com post):

At #10-First Man:

At #8- First Reformed (from TFF #44):

At #7- Cold War:

At #3- Roma

The top shot in Tapley's list came from the horror film Hereditary.

The complete post is here.


That's this Monday's MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Short Lists and TFF #45 / Indiewire's Critics' Poll for 2018 Says TFF #45 Was Gooood / First Man

How's your week going?


OSCAR SHORT LISTS AND TFF #45

As I mentioned in my last post, the Oscar peeps named their short lists in nine categories on Monday electing to do so all in one wave rather than separately.  Consequently, here's a snapshot of where films from TFF landed in the categories that were included among the nine:

Documentary (15 on the short list): Free Solo
Foreign Language  (9 on the list): Birds of Passage, Shoplifters, Roma and Cold War.  Missing from the list: Border and Girl.
Makeup/Hair (7 on the list): Border
Score (15 on the list): First Man
Song: (15 on the list): Revelation from Boy Erased
Visual Effects (10 on the list): First Man
Live Action Short (10 on the list): Caroline, Fauve

No TFF films were among the short listed films in the Documentary Shorts category or the Animated Shorts.

Variety has the complete rundown of all films short listed on Monday here.


INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS' POLL FOR 2018 SAYS TFF #45 WAS GOOOOD

The crew at Indiewire have done their annual compilation of critics' assessments for the year.  The massive undertaking included the responses of 232 critics and after the dust settled, films that played at Telluride in 2018 fared remarkably well.

Indiewire posted the top films and performances in a number if categories on Monday and here's where TFF films landed.

Best Film (of 10)

1. Roma
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
6. Shoplifters

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5. Paul Schrader/First Reformed (TFF #44)

Best Actress

1. Olivia Colman/The Favourite
2. Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
4. Joanna Kulig/Cold War
5. Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

1. Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3. Emma Stone/The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor

2. Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever forgive Me?

Best Documentary

4. Free Solo

Best Screenplay

1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
3. Roma
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma
3. Shoplifters
4. Cold War

Best Cinematography

1. Roma
2. Cold War
4. First Man
5. The Favourite

The complete article is linked here.

In a separate piece, Imdiewire runs down the top 50 films as rated by the 232 critics that they surveyed and both TFF #45 and TFF #44 were well represented:

43) Birds of Passage
38) Lean on Pete***
35) Border
30) The Other Side of the Wind
25) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
21) First Man
11) The Rider***
6) Shoplifters
5) Cold War
4) The Favourite
2) First Reformed***
1) Roma

(*** designates films from TFF #44)

Indiewire's critics' top 50 is linked here.

FIRST MAN

Sasha Stone at Awards Daily posted a passionate endorsement of Damien Chazelle's First Man on her website this week.  By and large I agree with her assessment about the film and, frankly, were I a voting member of the Academy it would be at the top of my ballot.

It seems a little unusual to me that First Man hasn't performed better at the box office and during this awards season.   In part because there is a group of people that experienced the film at Telluride who all feel much the same way-people that write about films for a living and that I have come to know at least a little bit.  We,have all expressed our belief in the film's quality and if you follow specific media accounts, you can deduce some the people I'm referencing...Sasha being among that group.

It also seems weird that a film that scored so well on my post-festival collection of ratings from fest-goers and business insiders, hasn't connect with the wider public.

I have come to think of Telluride as a terrific bellwether for were the awards season is likely to go.  I have come to the conclusion that T-ride has become an excellent microcosm of film-goers that collectively react much like the Academy will.

But it doesn't seem that way this year with this film.

Maybe this is a disconnect between the Telluride crowd and the rapidly evolving membership of the Academy as it has tried to increase its diversity over the past few years.  Maybe the First Man reaction or lack thereof is an anomaly that won't repeat at TFF #46 and the track record of the last decade or so will reassert itself.

Maybe I'm just wrong.  Wouldn't be the first time.

And it's not that First Man is going to be a total miss come Oscar nomination morning.  It'll likely be nominated for Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. It may get in for Cinematography and Film Editing.  Claire Foy still seems to have a shot at a Supporting Actress nomination.  Even the costumes and production design could still be in the mix for nominations.

Additionally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave it 10 nominations last week including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Oscar predictor Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention posted his first set of predictions last week and First Man was in seven categories including Best Picture.

But the consensus right now is that the film isn't likely to a Best Picture or Directing nominee on Jan. 22nd and that, to me, seems wrong.

So...

The voting doesn't actually start until Jan. 7th.  Here's the link to Sasha's piece...

Maybe give it a read...she's a much better writer than I am.  And pass it on...

That's your MTFB for this Thursday...more headed your way on Monday.  Happy Holidays all!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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New York Critics Love Roma (and First Reformed) / Latest Gurus o' Gold / Satellite Nominations Announced / More Interviews

Welcome back from your weekend and to the first of December.


NEW YORK CRITICS LOVE ROMA (AND FIRST REFORMED)

The New York Film Critics Circle met in NYC on Thursday last week and named the recipients of their accolades for 2018.  Telluride films from TFF #45 and TFF #44 had some results to be pleased with.

Alfonso Cuaron's TFF #45 entry Roma was named Best Film of 2018 and was also named winner for Direction and Cinematography.  Other TFF #45 awards went to Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War as Best Foreign Language Film and Richard E. Grant for his Supporting Performance in Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Meanwhile Paul Schrader's First Reformed from TFF #44 was named winner for Best Screenplay and its lead, Ethan Hawke, was named Best Actor.

Telluride films claimed seven of the 12 competitive awards that were determined by the NYFCC.

My take: We probably need to take Ethan Hawke seriously as a potential Oscar nominee for Best Actor as well as First Reformed as a possible Best Picture nominee.

Coverage of the NYFCC awards is linked here from Indiewire.



LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

The newest Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News went up on Friday.  We Gurus were asked to update Best Picture as well as ranking for possible nominees for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary.

My ballot looked like this:

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
6. If Beale Street Could Talk
7. Black Panther
8. BlacKkKlansman
9. First Man
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11. Mary Poppins Returns
12. First Reformed

Best Documentary

1. Won't You Be My Neighbor
2. RBG
3. Free Solo
4. Minding the Gap
5. Science Fair
6. Qunicy
7. Crime + Punishment

Best Foreign Film

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Burning
5. Capernaum
6. Sunset
7. Border

The TFF presence from the complete Gurus assessment from Friday has


The complete new Gurus o' Gold chart is linked here.


SATELLITE NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The International Press Academy announced their nominees for their 23rd annual Satellite Awards on Thursday last week.

Among Telluride films, Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite was the most nominated film with nine competitive nominations as well as a special ensemble prize.  It was nominated for Best Feature-Musical/Comedy, Best Actress Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz), Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes and Art Direction/Production Design.

Alfonso Cuaron's Roma was nominated in eight categories: Best International Film, Best Actress Drama- Yalitza Aparicio, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Art Direction/Production Design.

Damian Chazelle's First Man was nominated seven times: Best Feature-Drama, Best Actor-Drama (Gosling), Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Score, Sound, Film Editing, Art Direction/Production Design.

Joel Edgerton's Boy Erased was nominated in four categories: Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Supporting Actress (Kidman), Best Supporting Actor (Crowe), Song.

Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me was thrice nominated: Best Actress-Drama (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant), Best Adapted Screenplay.

Paul Schrader's TFF #44 entry First Reformed was nominated three times: Best Independent Feature, Best Actor-Dram (Hawke) and Best Original Screenplay.

Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War was a two time nominee for Best International Feature and Cinematography.

Other TFF #45 films that earned one nomination were:

Destroyer-Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)
The Old Man and the Gun-Best Actor-Drama (Redford)
Shoplifters- Best International Feature
Free Solo-Best Documentary Feature

TFF #45 films nabbed a total of 37 Satellite nominations.

The full list of all nominees is here from the IPA.


MORE INTERVIEWS

Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? from Deadline

Joel Edgerton/Boy Erased from Deadline

Robbie Ryan (cinematographer)/The Favourite from The Film Stage

Justin Hurwitz (composer)/First Man from Gold Derby


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more on Thursday in a post that will be updated during the day to reflect Golden Globe nominations and Telluride's impact on them.  Until then...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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National Board of Review / Gotham Awards Winners / A Cascade of Interviews

Hello to all on this final Thursday of November 2018...Lots of awards news over the past few days...the season got serious this week.


NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW REVEALS ITS WINNERS

It was a good day for films from Telluride...from 2017/TFF #44 as the National Board of Review named its best films for the year on Tuesday.

Paul Schrader's First Reformed was well honored as it was named  twice.  Schrader was awarded for Best Original Screenplay and the film was named to the NBR 10 Best Films of the Years list.

Also named to the 10 Best list from TFF #45 were Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Roma.

Cold War was named Best Foreign Language Film.  Shoplifters was named one of five additional Best Foreign Language Films of the year.

Kris Tapley tweeted that Roma's inclusion on the 10 Best list precluded it from being named Best Foreign Language Film.

On the 10 Best independent films list were David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun.  Also listed from TFF #44 were Lean on Pete and The Rider.

Free Solo was named on the list of the five Best Documentaries.

Peter Farrelly's Green Book won the top award as Best Film of the Year.

Among non-Telluride films Green Book, A Star Is Born and If Beale Street Could Talk did very well with the NBR.

Both The Other Side of the Wind and its companion documentary They'll Love Me When I'm Dead were named as winners of the William K. Everson Film History Award.

The complete winners list and more is here from Indiewire.



GOTHAM AWARDS WINNERS

 

The Indie film-centric Gotham Awards were announced on Monday evening and it was a good night for Telluride...in 2017.  TFF #44 films did incredibly well highlighted by wins for Paul Schrader's First Reformed and the win for Chloe Zhao's The Rider as Best Feature.

First Reformed's Ethan Hawke won Best Actor and Schrader won for Best Screenplay.

The only accolade of the evening for a TFF #45 film was a Special Jury Award for the ensemble of women from The Favourite which had been previously announced.

Other TFF #45 that had nominations but were shut out were: The Favourite (Best Feature, Best Screenplay), Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Best Supporting Actor) and Roma (Breakthrough Actor).

Complete coverage is here from Indiewire and Gold Derby.

The next big shoe to drop in the awards parade is The New York Film Critics Circle which happens today.


 A CASCADE OF INTERVIEWS

Alfonso Cuaron

Multiple interviews linked here with folks that played with TFF #45:


Damien Chazelle/First Man, Alfonso Cuaron/Roma, Jason Reitman/The FrontRunner and Marielle Heller/Can You Ever Forgive Me? from The Hollywood Reporter

Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira/Roma from Awards Watch

Alfonso Cuaron/Roma from Indiewire

Josh Singer/First Man from Awards Daily

Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War (from my Tomris Laffly) Film Journal

Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite from Indiewire

Hirokazu Kore-eda/Shoplifters from Vulture

Tom Cross (editor)/First Man from Deadline


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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William Goldman 1931-2018 / Independent Spirit Nominations and TFF #45 (and #44) / Multiple Interviews / New Gurus of Gold

Good Monday before Thanksgiving ya'll.  Still can't believe MTFB rolled over half a million views last Wednesday.


WILLIAM GOLDMAN 1931-2018

"I couldn't do that.  Could you do that?  How can they do that?  Who ARE those guys?"

It was announced Friday that screen writer and novelist William Goldman had died at the age of  87.  Like a lot of film fans, I was an avid reader of a good deal of what Goldman wrote and an admirer of his screenplays.

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
All the President's Men

He won Oscars for those scripts

The Princess Bride
Marathon Man

Read both novels and loved both films.

And the books about the film business...insightful, incisive and funny as hell.  That's what I admired about Goldman's writing as much as anything...his ability to cut swiftly and cleanly with a turn of phrase.  Funny, funny and honest.

87 is a good long run...but, damn, the film world and, really the whole place, as I wrote yesterday, is colder without William Goldman in it.

Think I'm going to grab my copy of adventures in the Screen Trade right now and re-read it...again.

"Nobody knows anything."



INDEPENDENT SPIRIT NOMINATIONS AND TFF #45 (AND #44)

Film Independent dropped the announcement for their 2018 Independent Spirit Awards on Friday.  Here's how that played out concerning films that played Telluride in 2018- and in the case of First Reformed- 2017.

TFF #45 nominations went to Can You Ever Forgive Me? for Richard E. Grant as Supporting Male and for Nicole Holofcener for Best Screenplay.

Roma, The Favourite and Shoplifters were each nominated for Best International Film (which was the only Indy Spirit Award they were eligible for).

The big TFF winner was TFF #44 film First Reformed which enjoyed four nominations for Best Feature, Direction (Paul Schrader), Screenplay (Schrader) and Best Male Lead-Ethan Hawke.

Indiewire has the entire list of nominees linked here.


MULTIPLE INTERVIEWS

Over the past few days a multiplicity of interviews with people from a number of films that played at TFF #45 have appeared.  Here's a sample of those interviews and profiles:

High Jackman/The Front Runner with Variety's Tim Gray


Emma Stone/The Favourite with Business Insider's Jason Guerrasio


The Crew behind The Other Side of the Wind and The Wrap's Steve Pond


The cast of First Man and The Hollywood Reporter's Tara Bitran


Marielle Heller, director of Can You Ever Forgive Me? on Variety's Playback Podcast with Kristopher Tapley


Sissy Spacek of The Old Man and the Gun with Pete Hammond of Deadline.com on The Actor's Side


NEW GURUS OF GOLD UP AT MOVIE CITY NEWS

Those of us who acting as Gurus for this Oscar season for Movie City News got the call last week to update Best Picture predictions and take a stab at Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.

That brand new Gurus chart is here.

Films and performers from Telluride that make the grade are:

Best Picture (through the top 12 spots): Roma, The Favourite, First Man, Can You Ever Forgive Me/ and Boy Erased.

Among the Best Actor picks Ryan Gosling/First Man sits at #5, Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner is at #8 and Robert Redford/The Old Man and the Gun is at #9.  TFF #44's Ethan Hawke for First Reformed is at #7.

Supporting Actor TFFers are Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me? at #3 and Russell Crowe at #10 for Boy Erased.



That's your Monday MTFB.  I'll have more on Thanksgiving morning!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Updated Oscar Predictions: The Supporting Races / Gotham Awards Nominations Revealed / Coverage for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Welcome Back from the weekend.  It's Monday...all...day...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: THE SUPPORTING RACES

Here's the latest of my Oscar predictions for the Supporting Acting categories.  The last pass at these categories was Oct. 4th. 

Each prediction is followed by its previous position 0n Oct. 4th in parentheses.  Telluride performances are in Bold. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/Beale Street (2)
2) Claire Foy/First Man (1)
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite (4)
4) Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased (3)
5) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite (5)

Others: Amy Adams/Vice, Marina de Tavira/Roma, Tomasin McKenzie/Leave No Trace, Elizabeth Debecki/Widows


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book (1)
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2)
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born (4)
4) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy (3)
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice (5)

Others: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther, Russell Crowe/Boy Erased, Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman, Nicholas Hoult/The Favourite

Meanwhile, after having told everyone that a new Gurus of Gold would be up at Movie City News last Friday, it seems that I was premature and that the newest Gurus will post sometime this week.

I'll let you know when I know.



GOTHAM AWARDS NOMINATIONS REVEALED

Telluride films from both TFF #45 and TFF #44 scored well as the Gotham Awards nominations were announced this past week.  The Gothams focus on rewarding excellence in independent film making.

Both The Favourite (TFF #45) and First Reformed (TFF#44) were out front with three nominations each.

The Favourite had nominations for Best Feature, Best Screenplay and a Special Award for the three actresses that are highlighted in the film: Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz.

First Reformed was nominated for Best Feature, Best Screenplay and Ethan Hawke for Best Actor.

Chole Zhao's The Rider (also from TFF #44) was nominated for Best Feature.

Richard E. Grant was nominated for Best Actor for TFF #45 favorite Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Yalitza Aparicio was nominated for Breakthrough Performance for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma.

Here is the complete rundown of nominees from Indiewire.



LOTS OF COVERAGE FOR CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

With its limited release this week, we saw a real surge in profiles, interviews and other pieces about Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me? starring Oscar contenders Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant.

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly

Time

That's today's MTFB.  I have more for you on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Trailers for Foreign Film Contenders from TFF #45 / Chazelle Talks First Man and More / Indiewire's List of 32

Welcome back form the first weekend of October.  Fall arrived here in Oklahoma over the weekend with temps in the 90's Friday and in the 60's Saturday.  Hello Autumn!

TRAILERS FOR FOREIGN FILM CONTENDERS FROM TFF #45

Both Hirokazu Kore-eda's Palme d'Or Cannes prize winning Shoplifters and Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War which won Best Director at Cannes figure to be serious contenders for Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nominations and could give Alfonso Cuaron's Roma a run for the money to win the award.  Both films had releases at the end of this past week of trailers to best their hype before their U.S. release.  Cold War is dated for a Dec. 21st release whereas Shoplifters is Nov. 23rd.  (By the way, it appears that Roma is likely to be released in some theaters on Dec. 14th prior to its streaming availability from Netflix , which produced the film per Indiewire).

Here is the trailer for Cold War from YouTube:

And also from YouTube, the trailer for Shoplifters:

I have linked stories of the trailers' releases.  For Cold War from Indiewire and for Shoplifters from The Playlist and Indiewire.

CHAZELLE TALKS FIRST MAN AND MORE

With the release of Damien Chazelle's First Man just days away (opening Oct. 12th, this Friday), it was not surprising to see Chazelle turn up at the end of last week as Kris Tapley's guest on Variety's Playback Podcast.

Chazelle talks, of course, about his upcoming film that tells the story of Neil Armstrong (Ryan Gosling) and the first moon landing.  He also talks about other topics including that famous Oscar moment from a year and a half ago.

Here's the link to the podcast.  Enjoy!

INDIEWIRE'S LIST OF 32

Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich and Kate Erbland at Indiewire have compiled a list of 32 independent films that they claim are the best 32 Indies of the year thus far.  

The list includes several films from TFF #44.  Why only one TFF #45 Indie's you ask?  Many have yet to be officially released.  I suspect the list will get larger and the crew at Indiewire says as much in the article.

Included on the list from TFF #44 are:

First Reformed

The Rider

Lean on Pete

Foxtrot 

A Fantastic Woman

The lone TFF #45 film so far is Free Solo which opened Sept. 28th.

Their top choice of all 32 films is Tamara Jenkins Private Life (First Reformed sits at #2).

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more in my next regularly schedule post on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

First Oscar Predictions for 2018-Part Two / Peterloo Moves / Lowery Talks The Old Man

Hello on this first Thursday in October!


FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2018-PART TWO

Continuing from Monday's post, here are my first attempts at parsing the Oscar nominees for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emma Stone in The Favourite

1) Claire Foy/First Man
2) Regina King/Widows
3) Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased
4) Emma Stone/The Favourite
5) Rachel Wiesz/The Favourite

Others: Olivia Colman/The Favourite***, Marina deTavira/Roma, Amy Adams/Vice, Michelle Yeoh/Crazy Rich Asians, Elizabeth Debicki/Widows

***depending on category placement

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Me with Richard E. Grant of Can You Ever Forgive Me?

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
4) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

Others: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther, John C. Reilly/Stan and Ollie, Adam Driver/BlackKklansman, Joel Edgerton/Boy Erased

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) The Favourite
4) Eighth Grade
5) First Reformed

Others: Vice, A Quiet Place, Ben Is Back, Stan and Ollie


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) First Man
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) BlackKklansman
5) Boy Erased

Others: A Star Is Born, Widows, The Front Runner, Wildlife, Beautiful Boy


The TFF #45 breakdown should the predictions in these four categories be 100% accurate:

The Favourite (3): Stone and Wiesz/Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
First Man (2): Foy/Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2): Grant/Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Roma (1) Original Screenplay
Boy Erased (2) Kidman/Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay

Also additional possibilities:

The Favourite (1): Colman/Supporting Actress
Roma (1) deTavira/Supporting Actress
Boy Erased (1): Edgerton/Supporting Actor
The Front Runner (1): Adapted Screenplay


AND...added to Monday's totals, the accumulated predictions for the eight major categories are:

The Favourite-6
First Man-5
Can You Ever Forgive Me?-4
Roma-3
Boy Erased-3

Added Possibilities:

The Front Runner-3
Boy Erased-2
Roma-2
The Favourite-1
Destroyer-1

And from TFF #44

First Reformed is predicted to be nominated for Best Original Screenplay and Ethan Hawke is a possible nominee for Best Actor.


PETERLOO MOVES

It was announced on Tuesday that Mike Leigh's Peterloo, which played TFF #45 as well as Venice, Toronto and will play as past of the BFI London Fest, will move its release date .  The film was scheduled to be released in the U.S. on Nov. 9th but now Amazon Studios has pushed the release date to April 5, 2019.

The distributor also said that the film will be released this fall in the U.K. so that it will qualify for the BAFTAs.

The film has had something of a rough go this year as it was reportedly not chosen for Cannes.  At Telluride last month the response to my polls of both fest-goers and industry professionals revealed that Peterloo didn't draw enough respondents from either group to merit including it in the ratings lists.

Peterloo details the true story of a Labor movement in Britain in August of 1819 that was organized to gain the right to vote.  That resulted in the deaths of 15 people with another 400 injured as the in an action taken by the cavalry that has become known as the Peterloo Massacre.

For more details concerning the delay of its release, here is the link to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.



LOWERY TALKS THE OLD MAN

Chris O'Falt at Indiewire posted his latest Toolkit podcast this week.  His guest is The Old Man and The Gun director David Lowery.  Lowery also adapted the screenplay from an article by David Grann from his New Yorker article.  Grann was also represented at Telluride by Trial by Fire, also based on another of his New Yorker articles.

Lowery spends some time talking about the making of the film which may or may not but probably is Robert Redford's last acting gig.

The story and the link to the podcast are here.


More to come on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The First Ten Bets for TFF #45 / Awards Daily Critics' List / Burning Has a Home

Good Friday all!  Big post today!



THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #45

Here you have it.  My first official stab at guessing/predicting/projecting/hoping for films that will play at The SHOW in Telluride over Labor Day weekend.

The first set of predictions every June is fraught with uncertainty.  I look at a lot of factors:  Studios. distributors, TFF histories, especially with directors.  The buzz around films we know are coming in the fall and will almost assuredly play some if not all of the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.  Oscar hopefuls, Cannes titles and a lot of the time, especially in early July...it's about intuition.

It all factors into my assessments.

Here's the history of success, or lack thereof, for each of the last seven years that I have been using the "Ten Bets" format:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10

As you can tell, last year was a bounce back after low years of 2015 and 2016.

Overall, I manage an average of  5.7 correct guesses with the initial Ten Bets of each season.

So...crossing fingers... here's the first Ten Bets for 2018 (in order of likelihood):

10) Beautiful Boy- I think Amazon Studios will land at Telluride with this, at least and maybe more.

9) The Front Runner- Jason Reitman was once a T-ride favorite.  My guess is that this film gets him back.

8) Burning- this was Cannes' unrewarded critical darling from a director who has played TFF before.   This was actually higher on my list until word broke yesterday that it had been grabbed for U.S. distribution by Well Go USA Entertainment.   See below.

7) Sunset- If its half as good as his first film (Son of Saul), Laszlo Nemes will return.

6) The Old Man and the Gun- This feels like Fox Searchlight's best play for Oscar season and thus its best chance at a Telluride berth...though they do have other possibles.

5) Cold War- Pawel Pawlikowski with a good shot to return to TFF.

4) Capernaum- Cannes Jury Prize winner and SPC's most likely shot for the schedule.

3) Peterloo- Mike Leigh's film about labour strife in Britain.

2) The Other Side of the Wind-Orson Welles "last film".  If this doesn't play Telluride I will be greatly surprised and, for that matter, upset.

1) If Beale Street Could Talk- It would a shock if Barry Jenkins' follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight does not make The SHOW's lineup.

Others on my "just under the Ten Bets" list: Boy Erased, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, First Man, Widows,  A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), Roma, At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows.

What do YOU think?  What films do YOU think might play?  What films do YOU WANT to play?

Drop me a note at any one of the contact methods listed below.

Looking at this list before I punch the button to publish, I'm saying to myself...naw...these can't all happen...but what if they did???

So, there you have it.  Let's see now how many of these films actually make the lineup.



AWARDS DAILY'S CRITICS' LIST

Jordan Ruimy, writing and compiling for Awards Daily has posted a "Best Of" critics assessment for the first half of 2018.

TFF #45 films pop up on the list with some frequency.  Included on the list are:

#31-Loveless
#24-Foxtrot
#13-Lean on Pete
#6-The Rider
#1-First Reformed

Pretty impressive for the films that played last year but weren't released until this year.  The complete list from Awards Daily is here.


BURNING HAS A HOME

As I mentioned above,  Lee Chang-dong's Cannes critical fave Burning has a distributor.  Variety reports that Well Go USA Entertainment has acquired the film and plans a limited release on Oct. 26th in NYC with expansion after that.

The film was right at the top of the critics' polls after its screening at Cannes but had languished without a distributor until yesterday.

As you see above, I still have it listed among my first Ten Bets list, albeit lower than I was thinking earlier this week, despite the fact that Well Go USA has essentially no Telluride history to speak of.

The complete story is linked here from Variety


That's your Friday MTFB.  Come back for more on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Byron Allen Gets Friendly With Hostiles / The Stanton Oscar Express Making Headway? / New Poster for Film Stars / First Reformed Added to NYFF

Welcome to the first Thursday in October...


BYRON ALLEN GETS FRIENDLY WITH HOSTILES

After having premiered at Telluride and playing Toronto and being announced as the opening film for the Rome Film Fest, Scott Cooper's Hostiles has finally gained distribution.

The news was revealed Tuesday that Byron Allen's fledgling Entertainment Studios.  Reports suggested that plans for the film will include an Oscar qualifying release before the end of the year and a wider release in January.

Those plans mean that Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike are probably both part of the awards conversation for acting honors and that the film could be a player in the Best Picture, Direction and Screenplay categories as well.

The film was received in a generally positive way at both Telluride and Toronto especially Bale for his portrayal of a 19th century U.S. Army Captain charged with escorting a Native American Chief (Wes Studi) to Montana from New Mexico.  The film  currently has a 67 on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 from Metacritic.

Further coverage is here from:

Variety

Indiewire



THE STANTON OSCAR EXPRESS MAKING HEADWAY?


FOr those that have been following along, the Harry Dean Stanton for Best Actor Oscar campaign may have gotten a boost this week as Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporters chief awards writer, included Stanton in his latest Feinberg Forecast,

Feinberg, doing an update of FF at the halfway mark of the New York Film Festival lists HDS as a "New" entrant on the race as a part pf a group he labels as "Major Threats".  That puts the late Stanton in Feinberg's top 12 for Oscar Best Actor.

The complete and updated version of The Feinberg Forecast is here



.NEW POSTER FOR FILM STARS


Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening as film star Gloria Grahame and Jamie Bell has a new poster as it moves towards its Dec. 29th limited release date in the U.S..  The film is under the umbrella of Sony Pictures Classics. and in addition to having premiered at Telluride played Toronto and will play London, Mill Valley and Middleburg.

Check the new poster:

Also take a look at the story from The Express (UK).


FIRST REFORMED ADDED TO NYFF

A24 announced earlier this week that Paul Schrader's First Reformed has been added to the lineup of the on-going New York Film Festival.  The film played Telluride, Venice and Toronto.  The film stars Ethan Hawke and Amanda Seyfried.

It is scheduled to screen tomorrow evening at 6:00pm in Alice Tully Hall.  A release date has not yet been set.

Here's the rundown from NYFF.