Late Breaking: Cannes #72 Poster Honors Varda / Final Set of Program Dedications / Peterloo Arrives / More Cannes Spec / The Burns Country Tour Continues

Good Monday to everyone.  Writing on my phone today as I have been art showing in Texas.

LATE BREAKING: CANNES #72 POSTER HONORS VARDA

Just released is the poster for the 72nd edition of Cannes featuring late film maker Agnes Varda.  Here it is:

FINAL SET OF PROGRAM DEDICATIONS

Here’s the last set of program dedications from TFF that I can find.  It appears that the fest began the feature of dedicating programs in 1990.
So, to complete the list I begin sharing last week here are the first few dedications from 1990-1997:


#24 1997- James Stewart
#23 1996- Louis Malle
#22 1995- Kathleen Tynan
#21 1994- Dennis Potter
#20 1993- Gary Essert
#19 1992-Nestor Almendros and Marion Zunz
#18 1991- Joel McCrea
#17 1990- Michael Powell



PETERLOO ARRIVES

Mike Leigh’s historical epic that played at TFF 45 last Labor Day opened in the United States Last weekend. As a result there has been a modicum of P.R. material appearing to coincide with it release.
The film was modestly received at T-ride and critically since then.

Leigh talked about the film in a recent post from J. Don Birnam writing for Awards Circuit.  You can find that interview linked here.



MORE CANNES SPEC

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has a post up with more speculation/predictions about which films will be named Thursday to the lineup for the 72nd Cannes Film Festival.

Included among the titles is the first mention that I’ve seen that Cannes might include if Jay Roach’s examination former of Fox News head Roger Ailes.
The film, titled Fair and Balanced, is reported by IMDb as “expected Dec. 20th and stars John Lithgow as Ailes.
Margot Robbie, Charlize Theron and Nicole Kidman also star.
Also mentioned in the Wells article Armando Iannucci’s The Personal History of David Copperfield,  Pablo Larrain’s Ema, Danielle Lesowitz’s Port Authority, Cristi Puiu’s Manor House and Marco Bellochio’s The Traitor.

Any of those films might be part of a Cannes-Telluride one-two punch.
As many of you know, Cannes and Telluride will often share an average of 7-8 films so this week’s Cannes lineup announcement should give us a lot to ponder as we look forward to TFF #46.
Wells’ post can be found here.



THE BURNS COUNTRY TOUR CONTINUES

(Photo of Johnny Cash from Episode 5 of Country Music via Sony Music Archives and The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

The Ken Burns Country Music Tour (at least that's what I', calling it) to bring attention to his forthcoming documentary about the history of country and western music in the United States is making another stop.  This time in Pittsburgh on Wednesday of this week.  As a part pf that stop, Burns did a solid interview with Scott Mervis for The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Burns doc is scheduled to launch on PBS a couple of weeks after the Telluride Film Festival (Sept. 15th) leading me to think that Telluride might be the final stop on "the tour".

The Post-Gazette article can be seen here.


That's a wrap on your Monday MTFB.  I'll be back on Thursday.  That post may well come a little later in the day so that I can do a bit of an entry on the Cannes lineup which will largely be announced that day.


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Boy Erased News / The Story of Peterloo / Morgan Neville Talks Welles / Indiewire Celebrates Cuaron

Good Monday everyone.  Hope you all had a great weekend and enjoyed the extra hour you got back with the return to standard time.


BOY ERASED NEWS

I'm passing on a couple of things I ran across over the weekend about Joel Edgerton's Boy Erased which opened in limited release this past weekend.

The first item is from Indiewire's Kate Erbland who posted this interview with the film's star Lucas Hedges.

The other is an article from The Advocate that features half a dozen new posters for the film that debuted in The Advocate and are designed to highlight specific groups working to end conversion therapy.

I've included a couple of the new posters here:

The article and a view of the other posters is linked here.

THE STORY OF PETERLOO

Time.com published an online article from Ciara Nugent on Friday that reviews the actual incidents depicted in Mike Leigh's TFF #45 film Peterloo.  The actual events including the massacre occurred in August of 1819 in Manchester, England.

Peterloo will open in the U.S. on April 5, 2019.  It's opened in the U.K. this past weekend.

The Time story is linked here.

MORGAN NEVILLE TALKS WELLES

Netflix has released the final film from Orson Welles.  The Other Side of the Wind, which played at Telluride a couple of months back was available to stream as of last Friday.  Also available was the accompanying documentary from Oscar winner Morgan Neville (Twenty Feet from Stardom).  They'll Love Me When I'm Dead explores the project of finally finishing Welles' last film and is also available to stream on Netflix.

Jordan Ruimy conducted an interview with Neville for The Playlist which appeared on that site on Friday.  It is linked here.

INDIEWIRE CELEBRATES CUARON

Indiewire presented its second annual Indiewire Honors last Thursday.  Eight film makers were honored including writer/director/producer Alfonso Cuaron.  Cuaron received Indiewire's Vanguard Award.

Indiewire;s Eric Kohn wrote the story which included comments from Cuaron about Roma which was a huge success at Telluride after winning the Golden Lion at Venice. 

Roma is now considered a strong Oscar contender and, at least at this point, is positioned as the film with the best chance to continue Telluride's crazy streak of having screened the last eight and nine of the last ten winners of the Oscar for Best Picture.

The Cuaron article is linked here.


That's the MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more for you on Thursday including an Oscar prediction update on the Leading Acting races.


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First Oscar Predictions for 2018-Part Two / Peterloo Moves / Lowery Talks The Old Man

Hello on this first Thursday in October!


FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2018-PART TWO

Continuing from Monday's post, here are my first attempts at parsing the Oscar nominees for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emma Stone in The Favourite

1) Claire Foy/First Man
2) Regina King/Widows
3) Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased
4) Emma Stone/The Favourite
5) Rachel Wiesz/The Favourite

Others: Olivia Colman/The Favourite***, Marina deTavira/Roma, Amy Adams/Vice, Michelle Yeoh/Crazy Rich Asians, Elizabeth Debicki/Widows

***depending on category placement

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Me with Richard E. Grant of Can You Ever Forgive Me?

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
4) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

Others: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther, John C. Reilly/Stan and Ollie, Adam Driver/BlackKklansman, Joel Edgerton/Boy Erased

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) The Favourite
4) Eighth Grade
5) First Reformed

Others: Vice, A Quiet Place, Ben Is Back, Stan and Ollie


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) First Man
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) BlackKklansman
5) Boy Erased

Others: A Star Is Born, Widows, The Front Runner, Wildlife, Beautiful Boy


The TFF #45 breakdown should the predictions in these four categories be 100% accurate:

The Favourite (3): Stone and Wiesz/Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
First Man (2): Foy/Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2): Grant/Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Roma (1) Original Screenplay
Boy Erased (2) Kidman/Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay

Also additional possibilities:

The Favourite (1): Colman/Supporting Actress
Roma (1) deTavira/Supporting Actress
Boy Erased (1): Edgerton/Supporting Actor
The Front Runner (1): Adapted Screenplay


AND...added to Monday's totals, the accumulated predictions for the eight major categories are:

The Favourite-6
First Man-5
Can You Ever Forgive Me?-4
Roma-3
Boy Erased-3

Added Possibilities:

The Front Runner-3
Boy Erased-2
Roma-2
The Favourite-1
Destroyer-1

And from TFF #44

First Reformed is predicted to be nominated for Best Original Screenplay and Ethan Hawke is a possible nominee for Best Actor.


PETERLOO MOVES

It was announced on Tuesday that Mike Leigh's Peterloo, which played TFF #45 as well as Venice, Toronto and will play as past of the BFI London Fest, will move its release date .  The film was scheduled to be released in the U.S. on Nov. 9th but now Amazon Studios has pushed the release date to April 5, 2019.

The distributor also said that the film will be released this fall in the U.K. so that it will qualify for the BAFTAs.

The film has had something of a rough go this year as it was reportedly not chosen for Cannes.  At Telluride last month the response to my polls of both fest-goers and industry professionals revealed that Peterloo didn't draw enough respondents from either group to merit including it in the ratings lists.

Peterloo details the true story of a Labor movement in Britain in August of 1819 that was organized to gain the right to vote.  That resulted in the deaths of 15 people with another 400 injured as the in an action taken by the cavalry that has become known as the Peterloo Massacre.

For more details concerning the delay of its release, here is the link to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.



LOWERY TALKS THE OLD MAN

Chris O'Falt at Indiewire posted his latest Toolkit podcast this week.  His guest is The Old Man and The Gun director David Lowery.  Lowery also adapted the screenplay from an article by David Grann from his New Yorker article.  Grann was also represented at Telluride by Trial by Fire, also based on another of his New Yorker articles.

Lowery spends some time talking about the making of the film which may or may not but probably is Robert Redford's last acting gig.

The story and the link to the podcast are here.


More to come on Monday.


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Ten (20) Bets #8 for TFF #45 / Roma Trailer Looks Impressive / Peterloo News and Poster

Welcome to Friday...glad you got here.


TEN (20) BETS FOR TFF #8

We're two weeks away as of today from the opening pf the 45th Telluride Film Festival.  As we close in on the Labor Day weekend,  our list of films that I think will play is expanding.  This week's newest reveals from the Toronto International Film Festival has changed the landscape in terms a new film or two being added or confirmed and also through the elimination of a number of titles that could still make an appearance when the official program drops on Thursday, Aug. 30th.

Here's a review of where the Ten Bets list was last Friday:

1) First Man
2) Roma
3) The Old Man and the Gun
4) The Front Runner
5) Destroyer
6) Cold War
7) Dogman
8) Shoplifters
9) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
10) Non-Fiction
11) The Favourite
12) White Boy Rick
13) Peterloo
14) The Other Side of the Wind
15) Meeting Gorbachev


Girl, Border, , They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, Graves Without a Name, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, On the Basis of Sex, He Dreams of Giants, Free Solo, Angels Are Made of Light, The Biggest Little Farm, Ghost Fleet, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mid 90s, Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased, Ad Astra


And here is your new Ten (20) Bets:

1) The Old Man and the Gun
2) Roma
3) First Man
4) The Front Runner
5) Destroyer
6) The Favourite
7) Cold War
8) Dogman
9) Shoplifters
10) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11) Non-Fiction
12) Boy Erased
13) White Boy Rick
14) Peterloo
15) The Other Side of the Wind
16) Meeting Gorbachev
17) Free Solo
18) Graves Without a Name
19) Birds of Passage
20) Girl


Ghost Fleet, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, On the Basis of Sex, He Dreams of Giants, Angels Are Made of Light, The Biggest Little Farm, Ghost Fleet, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mary Queen of Scots, Ad Astra, The White Crow, The Aspern Papers.

I'd also mention that there are a couple of other titles that I am vaguely aware of that could poke their way onto the list that aren't currently named here.


ROMA TRAILER LOOKS IMPRESSIVE


Netflix released a new teaser trailer for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma yesterday and it looks marvelous.  Here it is from YouTube:

The film has the distinction of playing all four major fall fests: T-ride, TIFF, Venice and New York.  At the moment it appears to share that distinction with Olivier Assayas Non-Fiction.

Roma is as yet still not dated for a theatrical release.  IMDb reports that it has an internet release date of Dec. 14th.

I have linked coverage of the release of the trailer from Indiewire and The Playlist.


PETERLOO NEWS

The BFI/London Film Fest announced yesterday that almost-certain Telluride title, Mike Leigh's Peterloo, will appear as a part of that fest with a screening in Manchester, England.  That is reportedly the first time any film that is a part of the the BFI/LFF will screen outside of London.

Additionally, Amazon Studios released a poster for the film yesterday.  That release and the announcement of the special Manchester screening (site of the events depicted in the film) had special significance.  Eagle-eyed friend of the blog Patrick Pringle noted in a message to me that yesterday was the 199th anniversary of the Peterloo Massacre.

Here's the poster:

Additionally, here coverage of the BFI/LFF announcement from The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.

If you missed it from last month, here's the trailer for the film from YouTube:

That's your Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday!


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Latest Take from Toronto Reveals / Anything From Sundance? / No Jack for Toni

Good Thursday TFF fans...

LATEST TAKE FROM TORONTO REVEALS

The Toronto International Film Festival rolled out a significant number of additional films that they were adding to the various slates that make up their festival.  Of course that announcement provided us with new information about films that are probably headed to Telluride and, just as importantly, which films are not.

Added to the list of probable films for Telluride are Joel Edgerton's Boy Erased and Cristina Gallego and Ciro Guerra's Birds of Passage.  Additionally, Mike Leigh's Peterloo is now all but confirmed for TFF #45 as well.

Boy Erased is listed by TIFF as an International Premiere suggesting that its first public screening will be at T-ride.  Both Birds of Passage and Peterloo are labeled Canadian Premieres.

Films that look to be removed from the Telluride possibilities list because they were categorized as World, North American or International Premieres that have already screened in their country of origin are (some of these were confirmations of deductions we'd already made:

Paul Greengrass' 22 July

Peter Farrelly's Green Book

David Mackenzie's Outlaw King

Sebastian Lelio's Gloria Bell

Thomas Vintenburg's Kursk

Jonah Hill's Mid 90s

Florian Henckel Von Donnersmarck's Never LookAway

Jafar Panahi's Three Faces

Jia Zhang-ke's  Ash Is the Purest White

Paolo Sorrentino's Loro

Jean Luc-Godard's The Image Book

Nuri Bilge Ceylan's The Wild Pear Tree

Christian Petzold's Transit

Sergei Loznitsa's Donbass

Luis Ortega's The Angel

Ali Abassi's Border-which I had thought might be bound for Telluride after that L.A. Fest classified it as a "California Premiere".  Looks like I was wrong.

I have to say that I am truly pleased that Boy Erased is going to make it to The SHOW.  It will be near the top pf my list of "must-sees" for Labor Day weekend.  Actually, that list is going to be too long to get in before the weekend is over.

Here's the TIFF rundown of Tuesday's additions from Indiewire.

ANYTHING FROM SUNDANCE?

I'm relatively confident that the normal practice of not programming films that played at Sundance will hold true this year.  I have also thought that the film most likely to make the very rare Sundance/Telluride double play that it would probably be Paul Dano's Wildlife.

However, I have overlooked the possibility that it could be Tamara Jenkins Private Life. 

Jenkins last film was 2007's Savages which was part of what I still regard as the strongest TFF lineup in the 12 years I've been going.  

So...I doubt that it plays, but if there is a Sundance/Telluride crossover, Private Life could be it.  Netflix produced the film and, as many of you know, Netflix is going to be a substantial presence at this year's fest.  Their recent decision to give the film a theatrical release on Oct. 5th might be an indicator that it could happen.

Private Life stars Paul Giamatti and Kathryn Hahn.  

NO JACK FOR TONI

One of the big hits of Cannes and Telluride in 2016 was Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann.  I, myself, was a bit lukewarm about it BUT...I remember telling somebody (might have been Award Circuit's Mark Johnson...maybe...maybe not) after the screening I saw that I'd be glad to sign on to write the script for the Americanized version because I was already that sure that such a thing would come to pass.

And it seemed to be so when it was announced that would happen with Lisa Cholodenko directing Kristen Wiig and Oscar winner and legend Jack Nicholson reprising the roles created by Sandra Huller and Peter Simonisheck.

However, that dream partially came apart yesterday as we discovered that Nicholson is out.  The 80+ year old actor will not be a part of the project after all.

Cholodenko and Wiig appear to still be on board and the search is reportedly on to cast a replacement for Jack.

Here's the story from The Wrap.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  More to come tomorrow including a new Ten (20) Bets for TFF #45.

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Venice: What We Know and What We Don't /Teasers and Trailers for Roma, Peterloo and Mid 90's

Good Thursday...


VENICE: WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE DON'T

The Venice Film Fest announced its lineup yesterday and, at this point, the best it can do is tell us what might still be possible for Telluride.  Absent premiere status and a schedule, that's the most information that can be gleaned at this time.

Here are the Venice films that we believe are already headed to Telluride:

First Man
Roma


The Venice films we believe are NOT Telluride bound:

The Sisters Brothers
Sunset
A Star Is Born
Shadow

Venice films that could still play Telluride (and you have to believe it will be more than First Man and Roma):

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (the Coen brothers television joint from Netflix which is now, apparently a stand alone film)
Vox Lux
The Favourite
Peterloo
At Eternity's Gate
The Other Side of the Wind
American Dharma


It all comes down to the scheduling at this point and we won't know the Venice schedule for another couple of weeks.
 
Here are links to a number of stories concerning the Venice lineup announcement:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Playlist

The Film Stage


TEASERS AND TRAILERS FOR ROMA, PETERLOO AND MID 90'S

While we were taking the regular Wednesday hiatus, a teaser was released for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma (which we now believe is set for Telluride) and also trailers were released for a couple of films that remain on the Telluride table for now-Mike Leigh's Peterloo and Jonah Hill's Mid 90's.

Here's the teaser for Roma from YouTube:

Here's the Peterloo trailer:

And also the trailer for Mid 90's:

That's MTFB for Thursday.  More tomorrow including a brand new Ten Bets informed by all of this week's developments...

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #45 / History Project: The Third Telluride Film Festival / The Distributors 2018: Specialty Houses

Welcome to Friday...


TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #45

Time for the second installment of MTFB's Ten Bets for this year's Telluride Film Festival.  These are the ten films that I believe, for this moment, to be the most likely to make the lineup for the 45th edition of The SHOW.

Last week's Ten Bets was:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Peterloo
4) Capernaum
5) Cold War
6) The Old Man and the Gun
7) Sunset
8) Burning
9) The Front Runner
10) Beautiful Boy


Here's this week's Ten Bets:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Cold War
4) Capernaum
5) Beautiful Boy
6) Burning
7) Boy Erased
8) Peterloo
9) The Old Man and the Gun
10) The Front Runner

Other films in the hunt:

Sunset, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, First Man, Widows,  A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), Roma, At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows.


HISTORY PROJECT: THE THIRD TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

I'm closing in on the conclusion of my project to expand the history section of this site as I cast an eye back to the third Telluride Film Festival that ran from Sept. 3-6, 1976.

TRIBUTES:

Chuck Jones, King Vidor and King Kong


SHOWS:

The Big Parade
Billy the Kid
Blue Jeans
Chulas Fronteras
The Crowd
Dersu Uzala
The Fire Within
Greaser's Palace
Heart of Glass
King Kong
La Marquise D'o
The Lost World
Lumiere
Maitresse
Most Dangerous Game
Music and People of the Northeast
Pastoral Hide and Seek
Phantom Tollbooth
Signs of Life
Spirit of the Beehive
Stories from the Jungle Book
Street Scene
The Thief
Two Tons of Turquoise to Taos Tonight
The Wedding March
A Well Spent Life
Wild Horse Mesa
Wild Oranges


GUESTS:

Robert Downey
Werner Herzog
Ed Lachman
Louis Malle
Barbet Schroeder
Fay Wray


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: SPECIAL HOUSES

I'm taking a quick look at specialty distribution companies that have had some Telluride successes over the past few years each of which has a film that stands a shot at making the Telluride lineup:

Magnolia

2006- Severance
2007- Terror's Advocate, A Thousand Years of Good Prayers, Redacted
2012- The Hunt, A Royal Affair
2015- Viva

Oscilloscope

2008- Kisses
2011- We Need to Talk About Kevin
2016- Lost in Paris

Strand Releasing

2010- Cameraman
2011- Bonsai
2012- Paradise: Love
2013- The Missing Picture
2014- Dancing Arabs
2016- Mifune: The Last Samurai

Here's what they have:

Magnolia has Cannes Palme D'or winner and critical success Shoplifters.  I actually think this film has a good chance to make TFF #45.  So much so that if I had a #11 on today's Ten Bets, Shoplifters would be there.

Oscilloscope has Margarethe Von Trotter's Searching for Ingmar Bergman which also seems like a good fit for TFF.  It also played at Cannes.

Strand Releasing's best shot appears to be Cannes entry Sorry Angel.  Of the three films I'm looking at, it seems like the least likely but it's not an impossibility.

Chances:

Shoplifters- 45%
Searching for Ingmar Bergman- 40%
Sorry Angel- 20%

Monday, a look at films that seem like Telluride possibles that still lack a U.S. distributor.


Have a good weekend!


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The Distributors 2018: Big Dogs / Don Quixote Legal Woes Won't Stop It / Moore's New Doc at TFF? / For Your Consideration

Thursday...July 5, 2018


Welcome back to MTFB...

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: BIG DOGS

There are, each year, a number of films that feel like they could have some Telluride potential that are distributed by one of the big studios that often have a limited profile in as far as T-ride is concerned.  This year is no different.

For example, Steve McQueen's Widows is set up at 20th Century Fox and Damien Chazelle's First Man is set to come from Universal.

Because of the two directors, and their pasts with TFF, I have to consider them as possibles for TFF #45 despite the fact that 20th Century Fox and Universal have very limited histories at the fest.

Also included in the calculation are Robert Zemeckis' Welcome to Marwen and Bryan Singer's Bohemian Rhapsody.

I might also mention that Columbia has Jason Reitman's take on Gary Hart's 1988 presidential run in The Front Runner and the Matthew McConaughey starrer White Boy Rick directed by Yann Dannage (who, like Chazelle and McQueen has been to Telluride before).  It also falls into this category of films.

Of the six films listed here, my feel is that the most likely to make Telluride is Reitman's The FrontRunner.  Reitman used to be a regular at Telluride and this could be his ticket back to The SHOW.  Give it a 40% chance.

Widows is next in line simply because the Steve McQueen connection has been tight.  He screened Hunger, Shame and 12 Years a Slave at T-ride.  Give it a 35% chance to play.

Chazelle's First Man is next at 30%.

I give Welcome to Marwen a 25% shot, White Boy Rick a 20% chance and Bohemian Rhapsody seems the least likely at 10%.

Tomorrow I'll look at films that feel like they have a decent shot at Telluride from occasional specialty houses that make TFF appearances.

DON QUIXOTE'S LEGAL WOES WON'T STOP IT

After so much back and forth legally regarding Terry Gilliam's long awaited passion project, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, it now appears that the film is going to be around quite a lot in the next few months.

The Hollywood Reporter's Nick Holdsworth writes that the film (having just screened at the Karlovy Vary Film Fest) will screen in competition at the Munich Film Fest and Gilliam says it will open wide in Holland and Belgium soon.

This series of events seems to indicate that the film is fully possible to screen in the U.S. at any and all of the fall fests.

It should be noted that the film was, at one point, set to be distributed by Amazon Studios but that they dropped out when legal issues endangered its planned screening at Cannes.

The complete THR story is here.


MOORE'S NEW DOC AT TFF?

Michael Moore has made it clear that he's going to pushing his new Donald Trump documentary Fahrenheit 11/9 hard for the next few months insisting that he wants it seen by as many people as possible prior to November's midterm elections.

One has to suspect that will include some presence on the fall festival circuit and that could include seeing it pop up at Telluride.

Moore has been at Telluride by my count four times-1989, 1992, 2002 and as a guest in 2013 for the fest's 40th anniversary.  So, especially with how much Telluride's profile has increased over the last decade, you have to consider it a possibility.

Here's the Indiewire article from Michael Nordine reporting on Moore's recent appearance on Bill Maher.



FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Recent articles at both The Playlist and World of Reel highlight what seem to be a larger than normal pool of films that might have legitimate aspirations for Oscar glory and that seems to be opening a wide door for those films and where they could land for their premieres.

Both article authors (Jordan Ruimy-World of Reel and Greg Ellwood-The Playlist) mention Telluride in this context.


Interesting tidbits from the Ruimy piece:

Alfonso Cuaron's Roma has hot buzz.
Mike Leigh's Peterloo was submitted for Cannes but was not chosen
Test screening response for Damien Chazelle's First Man has been okay but not through the roof
He describes Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk as "artsy".

Meanwhile, Ellwood's article poses a number of questions about Oscar quirks for 2018.

Check the articles out.

World of Reel

The Playlist

That's today's MTFB.  Come back tomorrow for the week's NEW TEN BETS...


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The First Ten Bets for TFF #45 / Awards Daily Critics' List / Burning Has a Home

Good Friday all!  Big post today!



THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #45

Here you have it.  My first official stab at guessing/predicting/projecting/hoping for films that will play at The SHOW in Telluride over Labor Day weekend.

The first set of predictions every June is fraught with uncertainty.  I look at a lot of factors:  Studios. distributors, TFF histories, especially with directors.  The buzz around films we know are coming in the fall and will almost assuredly play some if not all of the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.  Oscar hopefuls, Cannes titles and a lot of the time, especially in early July...it's about intuition.

It all factors into my assessments.

Here's the history of success, or lack thereof, for each of the last seven years that I have been using the "Ten Bets" format:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10

As you can tell, last year was a bounce back after low years of 2015 and 2016.

Overall, I manage an average of  5.7 correct guesses with the initial Ten Bets of each season.

So...crossing fingers... here's the first Ten Bets for 2018 (in order of likelihood):

10) Beautiful Boy- I think Amazon Studios will land at Telluride with this, at least and maybe more.

9) The Front Runner- Jason Reitman was once a T-ride favorite.  My guess is that this film gets him back.

8) Burning- this was Cannes' unrewarded critical darling from a director who has played TFF before.   This was actually higher on my list until word broke yesterday that it had been grabbed for U.S. distribution by Well Go USA Entertainment.   See below.

7) Sunset- If its half as good as his first film (Son of Saul), Laszlo Nemes will return.

6) The Old Man and the Gun- This feels like Fox Searchlight's best play for Oscar season and thus its best chance at a Telluride berth...though they do have other possibles.

5) Cold War- Pawel Pawlikowski with a good shot to return to TFF.

4) Capernaum- Cannes Jury Prize winner and SPC's most likely shot for the schedule.

3) Peterloo- Mike Leigh's film about labour strife in Britain.

2) The Other Side of the Wind-Orson Welles "last film".  If this doesn't play Telluride I will be greatly surprised and, for that matter, upset.

1) If Beale Street Could Talk- It would a shock if Barry Jenkins' follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight does not make The SHOW's lineup.

Others on my "just under the Ten Bets" list: Boy Erased, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, First Man, Widows,  A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), Roma, At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows.

What do YOU think?  What films do YOU think might play?  What films do YOU WANT to play?

Drop me a note at any one of the contact methods listed below.

Looking at this list before I punch the button to publish, I'm saying to myself...naw...these can't all happen...but what if they did???

So, there you have it.  Let's see now how many of these films actually make the lineup.



AWARDS DAILY'S CRITICS' LIST

Jordan Ruimy, writing and compiling for Awards Daily has posted a "Best Of" critics assessment for the first half of 2018.

TFF #45 films pop up on the list with some frequency.  Included on the list are:

#31-Loveless
#24-Foxtrot
#13-Lean on Pete
#6-The Rider
#1-First Reformed

Pretty impressive for the films that played last year but weren't released until this year.  The complete list from Awards Daily is here.


BURNING HAS A HOME

As I mentioned above,  Lee Chang-dong's Cannes critical fave Burning has a distributor.  Variety reports that Well Go USA Entertainment has acquired the film and plans a limited release on Oct. 26th in NYC with expansion after that.

The film was right at the top of the critics' polls after its screening at Cannes but had languished without a distributor until yesterday.

As you see above, I still have it listed among my first Ten Bets list, albeit lower than I was thinking earlier this week, despite the fact that Well Go USA has essentially no Telluride history to speak of.

The complete story is linked here from Variety


That's your Friday MTFB.  Come back for more on Monday.


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This Year's Oscar Crop and TFF Regulars / More on Don Q

Welcome back from your weekend.  Hope you had a good one...


THIS YEAR'S OSCAR CROP AND TFF REGULARS

At the end of last week not one but three major Oscar prediction groups published articles focusing on the films that they see as possible players for awards season glory.  Writers for Awards Daily, Variety and Entertainment Weekly all provided lists.

Taking a look, I noticed, to little surprise, that a number of films appeared on all three lists and a number also will be directed by people with past appearances at Telluride which means they have to be considered among the films that could make the SHOW.  So...here are the films from all three lists that have a TFF legacy director:

Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk
Damien Chazelle's First Man
Steve McQueen's Widows

Making at least two of the lists:

Mike Leigh's Peterloo
Jacques Audiard's The Sisters Brothers
Jason Reitman's The Frontrunner
Alfonso Cuaron's Roma
Yann  Damange's White Boy Rick


And with one mention:

David Mackenzie's Outlaw King
Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War
Julian Schnabel's At Eternity's Gate

The complete articles can be found here from Entertainment Weekly, Variety and Awards Daily



MORE ON DON Q

In light of last week's news that Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote has been programmed to screen at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival despite having lost a court case in France concerning the ownership of the film's rights, came another story at the end of last week from Indiewire's Michael Nordine.

The IW story focuses on the claims of producer Marilea Besuievsky who says  that Paulo Branco, who won the court case, may have over claimed the extent of the court victory.

Besuievsky, being quoted from a Spanish language publication, El Espanol, says that Gilliam has the right to release the film anywhere in the world.

So...back on the TFF watch list it goes...

The Indiewire article is here.


More to come tomorrow.

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The Distributors 2018: Amazon Studios / The Front Runner Looks at Awards Season / Welcome to Marwen Trailer Arrives / And Maybe The Don Is Back On

Thursday marks the return of MTFB for this week with an assessment of the chances of five films that are being distributed by Amazon Studios.

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: AMAZON STUDIOS

Amazon had Oscar nominee/winner Manchester by the Sea play in 2016.

Wonderstruck in 2017.

This year could see multiple entrants from Amazon Studios including Mike Leigh's Peterloo, Ritesh Batra's Photograph, Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War. All of these directors have some TFF history, especially Leigh.  In addition, we have to consider Felix Van Groeningen's Beautiful Boy and Dan Fogelman's Life Itself.

Chances in order of likelihood for TFF #45:

Peterloo- 75%
Cold War- 50%
Beautiful Boy 40%
Photograph- 30%
Life Itself- 20%


As a matter of fact, Peterloo will almost certainly be on the opening Top Ten List coming out in a week or two.  Cold War could make that list as well.

I'll look at Netflix tomorrow.


THE FRONT RUNNER LOOKS AT AWARD SEASON

Sony has dated Jason Reitman's The Front Runner with a Nov. 7th limited release date putting it smack in the middle of the awards season.  A wider release will occur the following week on Nov. 14th.

The Front Runner re-visits the real story of Gary Hart's ill-fated 1988 presidential run.  Hugh Jackman stars as Hart.

Deadline reported the story on Wednesday.  Also reporting the dates was Clayton Davis's Awards Circuit.  Both sources suggest that Telluride is a real possibility for Reitman's film despite the fact that Sony/Columbia have a meager TFF profile. 



WELCOME TO MARWEN TRAILER ARRIVES

We passed along Trailer Track's Anton Volkov's news earlier this week that a trailer would be released for Robert Zemeckis's Welcome to Marwen and that trailer dropped yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

Further reporting on the film and its trailer release can be found at:

FirstShowing

SlashFilm

The Playlist

Trailer Track


AND MAYBE THE DON IS BACK ON

Reporting from the Czech Republic suggests that Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote will play at the Karlovy Vary Film Fest.  The news was reported by both The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.

That comes after the news reported here Monday that Gilliam had suffered a legal set back with a French court finding in favor of producer Paolo Blanco. 

I wondered  if that decision might nix the chances of Quixote playing T-ride. 

Now, with this latest news that TMWKDQ will screen at Karlovy Vary despite the court ruling, I am again considering that the Gilliam passion project might still have a shot at the San Juans in a couple of months.



That's all for today.  More tomorrow.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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