Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
OSCAR #91 IN THE BOOKS: TELLURIDE'S SPELL IS BROKEN
Here are your winners from the 91st Academy Awards from Last Night:
Best Picture: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Actress: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born
Original Score: Black Panther
Cinematography: Roma
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Design: Black Panther
Costumes: Black Panther
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Visual Effects: First Man
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
Live Action Short: Skin
OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS
Telluride's streak of eight straight years of screening the eventual Best Picture winner ended last night with the win for Green Book. It's the first non-TFF film to win since The Hurt Locker back in 2010.
TFF films did pick up six Oscars last night. Roma had three: Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography. The Favourite's Olivia Colman won for Best Actress, Free Solo won Best Documentary and First Man won for Best Visual Effects.
Multiple Oscar winning films included:
Bohemian Rhapsody-4 Actor, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Green Book-3 Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay
Roma-3 Direction Foreign Language Film and Cinematography
Black Panther-3 Production Design, Costumes and Original Score
My personal prediction success rate was 19/24 or 79.2% . I missed Picture, Actress, Film Editing, Production Design and Live Action Short.
I don't know that I would classify any of last night's awards as shockers. Late wins by Colman and Green Book were mildly surprising but looking at the list I posted last Thursday, four of the five places where I missed, I had the actual winner listed as the "Could Be" candidate.
Why'd Green Book win? I suspect a combination of factors mostly related to the baggage that Roma had going into the season: a foreign language film in black and white from Netflix.
AND NOW WE TURN THE PAGE
Though I have played around already with looking ahead to this year's potential TFF #46 lineup, now that this year's Oscar ceremony is in the books, it's time for this space to turn back to what was originally created to do.
Oscar's in the rear view and we turn our gaze ahead and aim toward Aug. 30th and the opening day of the 46th Telluride film Festival.
I'll have more for you on Thursday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend and is having a great President's Day.
THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART ONE
Oscar night for 2019 is now just days away. Final Oscar predictions from every source imaginable will be coming at you fast and furious over the next six days including in this space in Thursday's blog post.
Some of the experts may mention "The Telluride Effect". For those of you who are frequent readers here, the expression likely doesn't need any explanation. For those that may not have bumped up against the term, here's an definition of sorts...The Telluride Effect suggests that for a film to win Best Picture at the Oscars it will have had to play at the Telluride Film Festival. It does not mean the film has had to premiere at Telluride, only that it screens as a part of the festival's lineup.
The term (I think Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is actually the person who coined it) has emerged over the last decade-plus as, with one exception when The Hurt Locker won as 2009's Best Picture.
Here's the lowdown for those years:
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (premiered at Telluride)
2009: The Hurt Locker (no T-ride play)
2010: The King's Speech (premiered at Telluride)
2011: The Artist (premiered at Cannes then played Telluride)
2012: Argo (premiered at Telluride)
2013: 12 Years a Slave (premiered at Telluride)
2014: Birdman (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)
2015: Spotlight (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)
2016: Moonlight (premieres at Telluride)
2017: The Shape of Water (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)
So there it is. Nine of the last ten Best Picture winners and the last eight in a row have played Telluride and, as you can see, the most common route is to either premiere at Telluride originally or, of late, do the Venice to T-ride. Only in the case of The Artist in the last decade has a film run through Cannes/Telluride to a Best Picture win.
This year, among the eight films nominated for Best Picture, the Telluride Effect's continuation depends on either Alfonso Cuaron's Roma or Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite. If you read most Oscar experts you'll have seen that many feel Roma will win Sunday night. I can't think of any that think The Favourite will be the big winner.
Roma's chances appear to be reasonable. I'd say something better than 50/50 but certainly not a lock. Many prognosticators think Peter Farrelly's Green Book could win Sunday night. Other, more distant possibilities might be BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther but most think it's down to Roma and Green Book.
I'll be on record on Thursday...but...hint, hint...I'm probably going to stick with the notion that The Telluride Effect continues to hold sway.
So...if it really exists, why? You might ask. I have a few ideas:
1) Reputation. The fest has this string because they consistently program great film. I think that attendees and peeps from the business pay attention to what Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and crew secure to screen over Labor Day.
2) Demographics: The fest, it seems to me, has a clientele that, at some level, mirrors the Academy. That's probably changing some over the past few years as the Academy has made a strong effort to expand size and diversity.
3) And speaking of the Academy...TFF and AMPAS have had a significant relationship for a while and a good chunk of the attendees each year are members of the Academy.
4) Timing: Telluride is in a sweet, sweet spot on the calendar. Situated at the beginning of September and between Venice and Toronto is great positioning in terms of setting the table for the fall films that will likely dominate the Oscar conversation.
5) The media has noticed. There has always been a media presence since I started going to Telluride (since 2006) but over the last decade that seems to have increased dramatically. As Telluride has, at the very least coincidentally, become a harbinger for what could occur during Oscar season, the press contingent seems to have become larger making for a more dramatic Telluride impact on the awards season. At least it feels that way to me.
There are probably other reasons but these are the five that come to mind. I know that Sasha Stone also has frequently suggested that the AMPAS choice a few years back to move the Oscars to earlier in the year has magnified the effect of fall film fests including Telluride.
Does it happen again this year? For a big chunk of this Oscar season, I didn't think it would but as I said above, I think it's now more likely than not but it sure isn't a lock.
I'll have more about The Telluride Effect in Thursday's post...
BERLIN FILM FEST CLOSES
The Berlin Film Festival concluded this week with the naming of Nadiv Lapid's Synonyms as the recipient of the Golden Bear, the fests more important prize. Also winning awards: By the Grace of God, System Crasher, I Was at Home...But, and So Long My Son.
As I have written here, it isn't uncommon for Telluride to program a couple of films that premiere at Berlin. Last year, for example, Dovlatov played Berlin first. In 2017, A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages all played the German fest prior to Telluride bows.
With its Silver Bear win, Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God may have moved to the front of the line for Berlin titles that could make the TFF #46 lineup. A couple of other titles that I thought we should keep an eye lost some of their luster in that regard owing to mediocre/tepid critical response. I'm referring to Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers and Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones.
I have linked stories about Berlin;s awards here from
I wrote a couple of weeks back about Ken Burns' upcoming PBS multi-part documentary about American Country/Western music and the possibility some of that might screen at Telluride prior to its bow on PBS in September.
PBS posted a 60 second teaser for the doc featuring Marty Stuart talking about the Grand Ole Opry and its place in Nashville and Country music history. Here it is thanks to the magic of YouTube:
SPOTLIGHT ON FREE SOLO
I have had RBG at the top of my list to win the Best Documentary Oscar on Sunday night since the nominations were announced but the last week or so, there seems to be a real undercurrent in favor of Free Solo which, of course, played Telluride last Labor Day. Honestly, between now and Thursday when I put up my final Oscar predictions, I may switch to Free Solo to win.
No less a light than Indiewire's Anne Thompson makes a compelling case for that possibility in the story she put up on Friday. It's not really the focus of Anne's story but shows up in it.
You can see what Anne and what the film makers and climbers had to say to Anne as well by clicking here.
That's today's MTFB. I'll have a Part Two about The Telluride Effect on Thursday in addition to my final Oscar picks for Sunday night's extravaganza.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominees for the 91st Academy Awards this morning and here they are:
BEST
PICTURE
1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) A Star Is Born
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) Black Panther
6) Vice
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) The Favourite
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
4) Adam McKay/Vice
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
BEST ACTRESS
1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
BEST ACTOR
1) Christian Bale/Vice
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Amy Adams/Vice
5) Marina De Tavira/Roma
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) First Reformed
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) A Star Is Born
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Marai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) Hale County This Morning-This Evening
2) RBG
3) Free Solo
4) Minding the Gap
5) Of Fathers and Sons
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Capernaum
4) Shoplifters
5) Never Look Away
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Roma
2) A
Star Is Born
3) Never Look Away
4) Cold War
5) The Favourite
COSTUMES
1) The Favourite
2)
Mary Poppins Returns
3)
Black Panther
4)
Mary Queen of Scots
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
FILM
EDITING
1) Green Book
2) Bohemian Rhapsody
3)
Vice
4)
BlacKkKlansman
5) The Favourite
Maybe:
Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
MAKEUP/HAIR
1)
Vice
2) Border
3)
Mary Queen of Scots
ORIGINAL
SCORE
1) If
Beale Street Could Talk
2) BlacKkKlansman
3)
Mary Poppins Returns
4)
Isle of Dogs
5)
Black Panther
ORIGINAL
SONG
1)
Shallow/A Star Is Born
2)
All the Stars/Black Panther
3)
I'll Fight/RBG
4) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return
PRODUCTION
DESIGN
1) The Favourite
2)
Mary Poppins Returns
3) First Man
4)
Black Panther
5) Roma
SOUND
EDITING
1) First Man
2) A
Quiet Place
3)
Black Panther
4) Roma
5) Bohemian Rhapsody
SOUND
MIXING
1) A
Star Is Born
2) First Man
3) Bohemian Rhapsody
4) Roma
5) Black Panther
VISUAL
EFFECTS
1) First Man
2) Christopher Robin
3)
Ready Player One
4)
Avengers: Infinity War
5) Solo: A Star Wars Story
ANIMATED
SHORT
1)
Bao
2) One Small Step
3) Weekends
4)
Late Afternoon
5)
Animal Behavior
DOCUMENTARY
SHORT
1)
Period. End of Sentence
2)
End Game
3)A Night at the Garden
4) Lifeboat
5) Black Sheep
LIVE
ACTION SHORT
1) Mother
2)
Skin
3)
Detainment
4)
Fauve
5)
Marguerite
Telluride films that were nominated were: Roma (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Supporting Actress (De Tavira), Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing The Favourite (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes
Roma and The Favourite were tied with the most nominations and the only films in double digit nominations. First Man (4): Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (Man, how could have been so off about First Man in every possible way. I thought it was headed for at least eight nominations this morning...and, of course, still thought it could stretch into the Best Picture race...) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay Cold War (3): Foreign Language Film, Direction, Cinematography Free Solo (1): Best Documentary Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film Border (1): Makeup/Hair Fauve (1): Live Action Short Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations. Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed. For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average. For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked). Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design. My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5. Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%. In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close. Biggest shockers to me... No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born. No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary. No Score nomination for First Man. Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma. The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man I'll have more on Thursday...
Week Two of the New Year begins today...hope it's working out for you. OSCAR voting starts TODAY! Editors (see below) Cinematographers, Sound Editors, Writers and Directors Guilds all announce their 2018 nominees today.
GOLDEN GLOBES
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out its annual Golden Globe awards for excellence in film and television last night. TFF films are Bold.
Best Film/Drama: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Film Comedy/Musical: Green Book
Best Actress/Drama: Glenn Close/The Wife
Best Actress Comedy/Musical: Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Best Actor/Drama: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actor Musical/Drama: Christian Bale/Vice
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Best Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Best Screenplay: Green Book
Best Foreign Film: Roma
Best Animated Film: Spiderman; Into the Spider verse
Best Score: First Man
Best Song: Shallow from A Star Is Born
Overall, Telluride films scored a total of four Globes: Roma (2-Foreign Language Film and Direction), The Favourite (1-Best ACtress/Musical-Comedy) and First Man (1-Best Score). Green Book had three and Bohemian Rhapsody had two and they were big awards for Best Film/Drama and Best Actor Drama.
A Star Is Born was shut out of wins in the four main categories it was nominated for (Picture/Daram, Actress/Drama, Supporting Actor and Direction winning only Best Song. That was something of a stunner as the Gurus o' Gold had the film as a unanimous favorite to win Best Picture/Drama.
PRODUCERS GUILD NAMES NOMINEES
Friday the Producers Guild of America (PGA) named their nominees for a variety of Film and Television categories. Their 10 film list for Best of 2018:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
The documentaries nominated by the PGA were (previously announced on Nov. 20th):
The Dawn Wall
Free Solo
Hal
Into the Okavango
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor
Animated Features nominated:
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Three TFF #45 films made the PGA cut: The Favourite and Roma among theatrical films and Free Solo among documentaries.
The latest Movie City News' Gurus o' Gold went up on Saturday and included predictions for the two Best Picture Golden Globes categories. Those, of course, are now known. Also included is the latest snapshot of the Oscar Best Picture race.
The American Cinema Editors named their nominees fro excellence in film editing for film and television this morning. TFF #45 films nominated included: Roma and First Man in the Film/Drama category, The Favourite in the Film/Comedy category, Free Solo in the Documentary category and in the Non-theatrical film category: A Final Cut for Orson: 40 Years in the Making, a short documentary about the recovery of Orson Welles The Other Side of the Wind.
Fox Searchlight released nine and a half minutes or so of David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun on Friday. Here that is from YouTube:
The film is now available to stream.
Meanwhile, Amazon Studios dropped a new trailer for Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War this weekend as well. Here it is:
TAPLEYS' NEW PREDICTIONS FOR OSCAR
Variety's InContention Awards expert, Kristopher Tapley had updated Oscar predictions Saturday ahead of the Golden Globes.
Telluride films included in his predictions include:
Roma (8): Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Foreign Language Film
The Favourite (7): Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design
First Man (6): Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Cold War (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film
First Reformed (2): Actor, Original Screenplay***TFF #44
Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film
Free Solo (1): Documentary
Border (1); Makeup/Hair
A couple of notes...
If Tapley is 100% accurate, TFF #45 feature films earn 30 Oscar nominations. TFF #44 (First Reformed) gets 2.
Tapley has no picks in the Shorts categories in this latest set of predictions and TFF #45 could snag an additional nomination or two there.
First Man now looks like it will be the most nominated film that doesn't get a Best Picture nomination. I am dismayed.
I'm also a little surprised that both Can You Ever Forgive Me with a probable two acting nominations and a screenplay nod isn't more in the Best Picture conversation. Same for First Reformed for the same reasons.
Tapley's inclusion of Pawlikowski for his direction of Cold War is a bold choice but I'd be stunned if that actually happens.
And speaking of Tapley, Kris has kept up an annual tradition by posting his selections for the ten best individual shots from 2018 films at Variety. That list with commentary went up on the Variety.com site in late December.
Among the films/shots included were TFF #45 and TFF #44 films (photos from Tapley's Variety.com post):
At #10-First Man:
At #8- First Reformed (from TFF #44):
At #7- Cold War:
At #3- Roma
The top shot in Tapley's list came from the horror film Hereditary.
Welcome to the Lull...that week between Christmas and New Years...
THE LATEST FROM GOLD DERBY
It's not a secret that I have been really pleased to be included as an "Oscar Guru" for MOvie City News' Gurus o' Gold this Oscar season but I'd also be silly to ignore the Oscarologists compendium that is Gold Derby. So, I'm not.
I took a look at their latest collective predictions and this is where there set of pros have Telluride films situated in their prognostications as 2018 comes to a close.
I am assuming nine films make the Best Picture field;
Leading the way for TFF #45 films in Gold Derby's estimation are both The Favourite and First Man. Both films are pegged fro 10 nominations. Roma is close behind with a projected eight nominations.
The Favourite is predicted for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (for both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing and Production Design.
The Derby has First Man predicted for: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.
Roma is picked for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Foreign Language Film.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? is named thrice: Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
Single nominations are predicted for:
Free Solo: Best Documentary Feature
Cold War: Best Foreign Language Film
Shoplifters: Best Foreign Language Film
Caroline: Best Live Action Short
That's a total of 35 predicted nominations for TFF #45 films.
Additionally, First Reformed from TFF #44 is predicted to earn nominations for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay.
As I mentioned in my last post, the Oscar peeps named their short lists in nine categories on Monday electing to do so all in one wave rather than separately. Consequently, here's a snapshot of where films from TFF landed in the categories that were included among the nine:
Documentary (15 on the short list): Free Solo
Foreign Language (9 on the list): Birds of Passage, Shoplifters, Roma and Cold War. Missing from the list: Border and Girl.
Makeup/Hair (7 on the list): Border
Score (15 on the list): First Man
Song: (15 on the list): Revelation from Boy Erased
Visual Effects (10 on the list): First Man
Live Action Short (10 on the list): Caroline, Fauve
No TFF films were among the short listed films in the Documentary Shorts category or the Animated Shorts.
INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS' POLL FOR 2018 SAYS TFF #45 WAS GOOOOD
The crew at Indiewire have done their annual compilation of critics' assessments for the year. The massive undertaking included the responses of 232 critics and after the dust settled, films that played at Telluride in 2018 fared remarkably well.
Indiewire posted the top films and performances in a number if categories on Monday and here's where TFF films landed.
Best Film (of 10)
1. Roma
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
6. Shoplifters
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5. Paul Schrader/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Best Actress
1. Olivia Colman/The Favourite
2. Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
4. Joanna Kulig/Cold War
5. Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3. Emma Stone/The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor
2. Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever forgive Me?
Best Documentary
4. Free Solo
Best Screenplay
1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
3. Roma
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
In a separate piece, Imdiewire runs down the top 50 films as rated by the 232 critics that they surveyed and both TFF #45 and TFF #44 were well represented:
43) Birds of Passage
38) Lean on Pete***
35) Border
30) The Other Side of the Wind
25) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
21) First Man
11) The Rider***
6) Shoplifters
5) Cold War
4) The Favourite
2) First Reformed***
1) Roma
Sasha Stone at Awards Daily posted a passionate endorsement of Damien Chazelle's First Man on her website this week. By and large I agree with her assessment about the film and, frankly, were I a voting member of the Academy it would be at the top of my ballot.
It seems a little unusual to me that First Man hasn't performed better at the box office and during this awards season. In part because there is a group of people that experienced the film at Telluride who all feel much the same way-people that write about films for a living and that I have come to know at least a little bit. We,have all expressed our belief in the film's quality and if you follow specific media accounts, you can deduce some the people I'm referencing...Sasha being among that group.
It also seems weird that a film that scored so well on my post-festival collection of ratings from fest-goers and business insiders, hasn't connect with the wider public.
I have come to think of Telluride as a terrific bellwether for were the awards season is likely to go. I have come to the conclusion that T-ride has become an excellent microcosm of film-goers that collectively react much like the Academy will.
But it doesn't seem that way this year with this film.
Maybe this is a disconnect between the Telluride crowd and the rapidly evolving membership of the Academy as it has tried to increase its diversity over the past few years. Maybe the First Man reaction or lack thereof is an anomaly that won't repeat at TFF #46 and the track record of the last decade or so will reassert itself.
Maybe I'm just wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
And it's not that First Man is going to be a total miss come Oscar nomination morning. It'll likely be nominated for Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. It may get in for Cinematography and Film Editing. Claire Foy still seems to have a shot at a Supporting Actress nomination. Even the costumes and production design could still be in the mix for nominations.
Additionally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave it 10 nominations last week including Best Picture and Best Direction. Oscar predictor Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention posted his first set of predictions last week and First Man was in seven categories including Best Picture.
But the consensus right now is that the film isn't likely to a Best Picture or Directing nominee on Jan. 22nd and that, to me, seems wrong.
Hello to all on this final Thursday of November 2018...Lots of awards news over the past few days...the season got serious this week.
NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW REVEALS ITS WINNERS
It was a good day for films from Telluride...from 2017/TFF #44 as the National Board of Review named its best films for the year on Tuesday.
Paul Schrader's First Reformed was well honored as it was named twice. Schrader was awarded for Best Original Screenplay and the film was named to the NBR 10 Best Films of the Years list.
Also named to the 10 Best list from TFF #45 were Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Roma.
Cold War was named Best Foreign Language Film. Shoplifters was named one of five additional Best Foreign Language Films of the year.
Kris Tapley tweeted that Roma's inclusion on the 10 Best list precluded it from being named Best Foreign Language Film.
On the 10 Best independent films list were David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun. Also listed from TFF #44 were Lean on Pete and The Rider.
Free Solo was named on the list of the five Best Documentaries.
Peter Farrelly's Green Book won the top award as Best Film of the Year.
Among non-Telluride films Green Book, A Star Is Born and If Beale Street Could Talk did very well with the NBR.
Both The Other Side of the Wind and its companion documentary They'll Love Me When I'm Dead were named as winners of the William K. Everson Film History Award.
The Indie film-centric Gotham Awards were announced on Monday evening and it was a good night for Telluride...in 2017. TFF #44 films did incredibly well highlighted by wins for Paul Schrader's First Reformed and the win for Chloe Zhao's The Rider as Best Feature.
First Reformed's Ethan Hawke won Best Actor and Schrader won for Best Screenplay.
The only accolade of the evening for a TFF #45 film was a Special Jury Award for the ensemble of women from The Favourite which had been previously announced.
Other TFF #45 that had nominations but were shut out were: The Favourite (Best Feature, Best Screenplay), Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Best Supporting Actor) and Roma (Breakthrough Actor).
OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTRESS AND ACTOR
Here's MTFB's latest set of predictions for Best Supporting Actress and Actor updating the last shot I took at them from Oct. 22nd.
The new rankings list the performer's last position and, as always, TFF #45 performers are Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk (1) 2) Emma Stone/The Favourite (3) 3) Claire Foy/First Man (2) 4) Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased (4) 5) Rachel Wiesz/The Favourite (5)
In the Mix: Amy Adams/Vice, Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place, Elizabeth Debicki/Widows, Marina DeTaviria/Roma, Linda Cardellini/Green Book
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book (1)
2) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born (3) 3) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2)
4) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy (4)
5) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman (-)
In the Mix: Sam Rockwell/Vice, Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther, Russell Crowe/Boy Erased, Daniel Kaluuya/Widows
TFF#45 REPRESENTS IN THE EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS NOMINATIONS
Several films from the 2018 edition of the Telluride Film Festival made their presence known as the European Film Awards nominations were announced. TFF #45 films pulled in 16 total nominations with an additional nomination for a TFF #44 film.
Cold War led the way with five nominations for Best European Film, Direction, Actress, Actor and Screenwriting.
Both Border and Dogman garnered four nominations each. For Border they were: Best European Film, Direction, Actress and Screenwriting. For Dogman: Best European Film, Direction, Actor and Screenwriting.
Girl was nominated in three categories: Best European Film, Direction and Actor.
TFF #44's Foxtrot was nominated for Best Direction.
With The Front Runner's limited release on election day last week and its imminent expansion at hand, Time.com posted a look at the story of Sen. Gary Hart's run for President in 1987 (for the '88 election) that is the basis for the film.
Time establishes a timeline for all of the key moments that occurred and assesses those events.
INDIEWIRE FOCUSES ON FREE SOLO AND CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Indiewire this past week included in their IDA Screening Series a conversation with the people behind Free Solo. That video can be found in this story.
Meanwhile, Indiewire's Toolkit podcast this week included Can You Ever Forgive Me? Director Marielle Heller. That podcast is linked here.
That's a wrap for this Monday's MTFB. I'll have more for you on Thursday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
