TEN BETS FOR TFF #51
I've been doing the "Ten Bets" format as a way of predicting Telluride lineups for since 2011.
Here's last year's first Ten Bets with the films that actually played TFF #50 in Bold.
1) The Holdovers/Payne
2) May December/Haynes
3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
4) Monster/Kore-eda
5) (All of Us)Strangers/Haigh
6) El Conde/Larrain
7) Poor Things/Lanthimos
8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet
9) The American Buffalo/Burns
10) The End/Oppenheimer
So 6 of 10.
In previous years the correct ratios were:
2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2019: 4/10
2020: No fest
2021: 8/10
2022: 6/10
2023: 6/10
That puts the average of correct picks on this first whirl at 5.8.
That being said, I feel less confidence about this year's first Ten Bets than maybe any other year. Sooo... with great trepidation...here are 2024's first Ten Bets for TFF:
1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger
Other possibilities:
We Live in Time/Crowley
I'm Still Here/Salles
Parthenope/Sorrentino
In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel
Hard Truths/Leigh
The Piano Lesson/Washington
Untitled Noah Baumbach
Nickel Boys/Ross
Blitz/McQueen
Megalopolis/Coppola
Now we'll see how this all plays out.
COPPOLA AND MEGALOPOLIS GET A DISTRIBUTOR
Lionsgate has acquired Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis for U.S. distribution. The film has been set for a Sept. 27th release date putting it in position to potentially play TFF and/or Toronto. Lionsgate has had an occasional presence at Telluride over the years with their last appearance in 2022 with Living.
So it appears that the possibility of a Telluride play is still open.
BLITZ IS SEEN
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Steve McQueen's Blitz has been screened in front of real humans in New York and London. So, at least some of the mystery about its existence has been removed.
Now, none of this means that Blitz will play any festival but it also doesn't preclude that possibility that it could play T-ride.
I still think that Blitz World Premiering at the BFI/London Fest is the most likely scenario for the film.
NO NIGHTBITCH AT TFF
The Toronto International Film Festival announced their first set of selections for their 2024 edition this week and included on that list was Marielle Heller's Nightbitch. MTFB readers saw that in my look at Searchlight films that it seemed like their most likely TFF possibility. As Toronto has announced that the film will be a World Premiere that implies that TFF #50 is off the table.
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