TAKING A LOOK AT THE MAJOR EIGHT
Here's a review of the last couple of weeks of The FAC updates for the eight major Oscar categories.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold. The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Hell or High Water (5)
5) Fences (4)
6) Arrival (8)
7) Lion (6)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (12)
10) Silence (7)
11) Jackie (11)
12) Sully (9)
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)
5) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (6)
6) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)
7) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (10)
9) Garth Davis/Lion (8)
10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (7)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Being/20th Century Women (3)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (7)
6) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
7) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (9)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (8)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (10)
BEST ACTOR
1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (2)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (1)
3) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
4) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
6) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (7)
7) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (6)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
10) Adam Driver/Paterson (NR)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)
6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (which includes Moonlight and Loving for the first time)
1) Moonlight (NR)
2) Fences (1)
3) Arrival (2)
4) Lion (4)
5) Silence (3)
6) Hidden Figures (6)
7) Loving (NR)
8) Sully (5)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
10) Nocturnal Animals (8)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (3)
3) Hell or High Water (4)
4) The Lobster (8)
5) 20th Century Women (6)
6) Captain Fantastic (9)
7) Jackie (5)
8) Zootopia (NR)
9) Miss Sloane (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)
Manchester by the Sea would get nominations in the Major Eight categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. That might be the totality of Manchester's nominations from what I'm seeing in the other categories from the Oscar pundits. Perhaps it gets in for a film editing nomination.
Moonlight would get five nominations in these categories: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Moonlight seems to also be in the discussion for possible nominations for film editing, cinematography and score.
La La Land would land five nominations in these eight categories: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay. I think it's like;y to land a number of other "below the line" nominations as well with chances for film editing, cinematography, costume, original score, original song (probably two noms here), production design, sound mixing and sound editing.
Arrival would land three nominations: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and a possible Best Actress nomination for Amy Adams. Other chances: visual effects.
Sully would get a single nomination for Tom Hanks as Best Actor but might have an additional shot at Best Picture, director and adapted screenplay.
Aaron Eckhart has a really outside shot at Best Supporting Actor for Bleed for This.
Among these eight major categories TFF #43 films would net 20 nominations with another 4 as possibilities plus as many as 14 "below the line" nominations. Additionally, you might expect to see TFF #43 nominations for Foreign Language (Toni Erdmann is a given), Documentary (Fire at Sea, The Eagle Huntress and The Ivory Trade are still in the hunt, though I expect Fire Sea has the most realistic shot at a nom. Honestly, T-ride might not see any of the docs that played there make the final five. Also, don't discount the three shorts categories.
Ultimately Telluride 2016 could/should be in the neighborhood of 30ish Oscar nominations this year which would be slightly ahead of the average for the past several years which hovers around 27 nominations.
THREE PUNDITS AND WHAT THEY TELL US ABOUT "OTHER CATEGORIES"
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention and Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter all updated their Oscar predictions on Friday so I thought without going into full FAC analysis and number crunching, I might use the prognosticating power of these three experts to point the way in the other 16 Oscar categories beyond the Major Eight. My focus, at least for this, was to look for other possible/probable nominations for TFF #43 films and I decided to only include possible nominations that all three agree are probable.
So, within that criteria, here's what I discovered:
La La Land should land an additional seven nominations for cinematography, film editing, production design, original score, two for original song (City of Stars and Audition) and sound mixing. It could also have potential nominations for costumes and sound editing for a total of between 12-14 nominations. I'm thinking 12. I also appear to think the John Legend number form the film, Start a Fire has any chance to get a nomination.
Moonlight looks good for a film editing nomination which would put its total at six. It also could have a shot at additional nominations for cinematography and original score.
Toni Erdmann appears to be the only other "lock" with an almost certain nomination for Best Foreign Language Film.
One other film that seems to have a chance at additional nominations because it appears on two of the three latest predictions from Sasha, Kris or Scott is Arrival for cinematography, film editing and visual effects.
The complete latest predictions from all three pundits are here;
from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
from Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
from Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
KEY DATES BETWEEN NOW AND JAN. 24TH
Jan. 3 Editor's Guild nominations
Jan. 4 Writers Guild nominations
Jan. 5 Oscar nomination voting begins
Jan. 8 Golden Globe Awards
Jan.. 10 BAFTA nominations, Producers Guild nominations, Cinematographers Guild nominations
Jan. 12 Directors Guild nominations
Jan. 13 Oscar nomination voting closes
Jan. 24 Oscar nominations announced
BRIGHT LIGHTS GETS MOVED UP
HBO has announced that they will move up the premiere date for the documentary Bright Lights; Starring Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher to Jan. 7th in light of the deaths of the mother/daughter Hollywood icons that died last week only a day apart.
The doc was originally set to premiere sometime in March. The film played Cannes prior to and New York, Chicago and AFI after TFF #43.
I have linked coverage of the HBO announcement here
from Variety
from the Hollywood Reporter
from Indiewire
UNA HAS A TRAILER (THOUGH STILL NO DISTRIBUTION)
Una, the film adaptation of the play Blackbird, dropped a trailer this weekend. The film is set to open in Singapore in the next few days but as yet is still without U.S. distribution.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
Additionally, stories covering the trailer's release are here from The Film Stage and here from The Playlist.
MORE WITH MOONLIGHT'S BARRY JENKINS
I have provided links here to a couple of profiles/interviews with Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins, who is having a very, very busy awards season. Good on him, I say...
from The New York Film Festival
from Indiewire.
That's all for this first post for 2017. It is my fervent hope that your new year is one of the best years that you'll ever experience.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
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