Monday, January 9, 2017

Golden Globe Winners and Analysis / The FAC Looks "Below the Line" / Telluride Films Dominate the National Society of Film Critics

Welcome to a post Golden Globes Monday...


Here's last night's open for the Golden Globes broadcast from Jimmy Fallon and a few friends (from YouTube)...

From last night's Golden Globe Awards:

Best Picture (Drama) Moonlight
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) La La Land
Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Best Actress (Drama) Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) Emma Stone/La La Land
Best Actor (Drama) Casey Affleck/Manchester
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) Ryan Gosling/La La Land
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals
Best Screenplay: La La Land
Best Foreign Film: Elle
Best Animated Film: Zootopia
Best Score: La La Land
Best Song: City of Stars/La La Land

La La Land set a new Golden Globes record winning seven Globes as it won every award it was nominated for.  Moonlight was named Best Drama and Casey Affleck's win gave Telluride films nine Globes out of the 14 possible categories.

Biggest surprises were Taylor-Johnson's win over Mahershala Ali.  I still think Ali is likely the front runner for the Oscar in that category.  The other surprises were Elle related with its win for Foreign Film and, though to a lesser extent, Isabelle Huppert's Best Actress Drama win.  Of course, La La Land sweeping in the seven categories it was nominated in was a surprise.  I predicted it to win six.  I expected Moonlight or Manchester to win the Screenplay Globe.

So does winning the Globe make any difference Oscar-wise?  Probably only at the margins.  Oscar voting goes on until Friday and maybe those who haven't voted will take a look at some of the films that won last night.  But maybe not.  If there is a boost or the Globes act as any kind of harbinger that would obviously benefit La La Land.

I have linked Golden Globe analysis and reportage here:

The Hollywood Reporter
The Wrap


As we approach the announcement of Oscar nominations in just over two weeks (voting closes Friday) I thought we'd better assess the "Below the Line" categories including an update to Film Editing and Cinematography that were last posted here on Oct. 27th as well as first looks at 11 other categories.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

For Film Editing and Cinematography, the film's previous position follows in parentheses.


1)  La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (4)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hell or High Water (NR)
5) Hacksaw Ridge (10)

6) Manchester by the Sea (NR)
7) Silence (2)
8) Sully (9)
9) Fences (6)
10) Rogue One (NR)


1) La La Land (1)
2) Silence (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Moonlight (NR)
5) Nocturnal Animals (NR)

6) Lion (NR)
7) Jackie (5)
8) Live By Night (6)
9) Hail, Caesar (8)
10) Cafe Society (10)


1) Toni Erdmann
2) The Salesman
3) Land of Mine
4) A Man Called Ove
5) My Life as a Zucchini

6) Tanna
7) Paradise
8) It's Only the End of the World
9) The King's Choice


1) O.J.: Made in America
2) The 13th
3) I Am Not Your Negro
4) Weiner
5) Cameraperson

6) Fire at Sea
7) Gleason
8) Life, Animated
9) The Ivory Game
10) The Eagle Huntress


1) Zootopia
2) Kubo and the Two Strings
3) Moana
4) The Red Turtle
5) My Life as a Zucchini

6) Finding Dory
7) Miss Hoksauki
8) The Little Prince
9) Sing
10) Your Name


1) La La Land
2) Jackie
3) Silence
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5) Arrival

6) Live By Night
7) Rules Don't Apply
8) Rogue One
9) Passengers
10) Hacksaw Ridge


1) La La Land
2) Lion
3) Moonlight
4) The BFG
5) Jackie

6) Rogue One
7) The Jungle Book
8) Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Hidden Figures
10) Passengers


1) City of Stars/La La Land
2) Audition/La La Land
3) How Far I'll Go/Moana
4) Can't Stop the Felling/Trolls
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street

6) I See Victory/Hidden Figures
7) Runnin'/Hidden Figures
8) We Know the Way/Moana
9) I'm Still Here/Miss Simone
10) Letter to the Free/The 13th


1) Deadpool
2) Star Trek Beyond
3) A Man Called Ove

4) Florence Foster Jenkins
5) The Dressmaker
6) Suicide Squad
7) Hail, Caesar


1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) Rogue One
3) Arrival
4) Sully
5) La La Land

6) Deepwater Horizon
7) The Jungle Book
8) Patriot's Day
9) 13 Hours
10) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk


1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Rogue One
4) Arrival
5) The Jungle Book

6) Sully
7) Deepwater Horizon
8) Patriot's Day
9) Silence
10) 13 Hours


1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange
4) Arrival
5) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

6) Passengers
7) Captain America: Civil War
8) The BFG
9) Kubo and the Two Strings
10) Deepwater Horizon


1) Jackie
2) La La Land
3) Florence Foster Jenkins
4) Fantastic Beasts
5) Silence

6) Love and Friendship
7) Allied
8) Live By Night
9) Rules Don't Apply
10) The Handmaiden

And the analysis...

If we combine these predictions with last week's Major Eight, here's what nomination morning looks like if The FAC is 100% accurate (which it won't be...think between 75%-80% accurate).

Telluride films:

La La Land will have 14 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song-twice, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and  Costumes.  Of these, sound editing appears to be the most tenuous of possibilities but the remainder seem very solid.  Should it get 14 nominations it would tie All About Eve and Titanic for the most nominated films ever.

Arrival would have a stunning and surprising nine nominations with a real shot at a tenth. Nominations would come for: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  Amy Adams could also snag a Best Actress nomination (she was at #6 on The FAC for that category last week).

Moonlight should land eight nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Original Score.

Manchester by the Sea looks like it will land six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.  It could also land a Film Editing nomination.

Sully looks to land a nomination for Actor and Sound Editing and is still in play for possible nominations for Picture, and Adapted Screenplay.  Sully could also be in the mix for Film Editing and Sound Mixing.

Toni Erdmann looks solid for a Best Foreign Language Film nomination.

Other TFF #43 films that could be announced on Jan. 24: Fire at Sea, The Ivory Game and The Eagle Huntress could be nominated for Best Documentary and Aaron Eckhart has a very outside shot at Best Supporting Actor for Bleed for This.

If it all happens Telluride films from 2016 would grab 40 nominations.  That, I believe, would be a record and way above the average of 27 per year that we have seen since 2006. Those films would have another possible 10 nominations.

Additionally, there could well be nominations in some of the short form categories.

Lastly, if you believe, and I do, that the position of a film in the nomination charts indicates how the professional predictors think a category will go on Oscar night itself, then La La Land would win a stunning nine Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Film Editing, Cinematography, Song (City of Stars), Score, Production Design and Sound Mixing.  That would put it in heady company as only Ben Hur, Titanic, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (all with 11 wins) West Side Story (10) would have had more wins.  La La would tie with The English Patient, Gigi and The Last Emperor. It would also be the most for a single film on Oscar night since LOTR:ROTK in 2003.

Moonlight would win two: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester would win two: Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Toni Erdmann would win Foreign Language.

That would have TFF films winning an amazing 14 of 21 feature categories.

The FAC will be updating categories in each post until Jan. 24th and the nominations announcement.


The National Society of Film Critics weighed in on Saturday as they voted on their choices for the best in film in 2016.  TFF #43 films were well represented.

Moonlight won four awards including Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor and Cinematography.  It was also a runner-up for Screenplay and Supporting Actress.

Manchester by the Sea was named winner in three categories: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay.  It was a runner-up for Picture, Director.

Toni Erdmann won as Best Foreign Film.

Isabelle Huppert was named Best Actress for Things to Come and Elle.

That means that TFF#43 films won eight and a half of the nine categories.

Additionally, La La Land was a runner up for Best Picture, Director and Cinematography.

Toni Erdmann's Sandra Huller was a runner-up for Best Actress and Things to Come was a runner-up for Best Foreign Film.

Complete coverage of the NSFC winners is here from:

Entertainment Weekly
Awards Watch
The Wrap


TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog

No comments: