The FAC Updates Picture and Director / An Early Peek at TFF #44 Possibilities / AFI Best Films List

Welcome to Thursday...

THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTOR OSCAR CANDIDATES

Our last look at the Best Picture and Director categories for The Film Awards Clearinghouse came on Nov. 3 and the intervening month has seen some changes.  Here's a look at where those two categories stand as we end the first week of December.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (4)

3) Manchester by the Sea (2)

4) Fences (3)

5) Hell or High Water (12)

6) Lion (5)

7) Silence (6)

8) Arrival (8)

9) Sully (10)

10) Loving (9)

11) Jackie (7)

12) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

Hot: Moonlight, Jell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge

Not: Jackie, Live by Night

On the Cusp: Hidden Figures

Comment:  The Oscar experts can say that the early critical awards don't matter in as far as Oscar is concerned all the want, but what else explains the bump for Moonlight and the sky-rocketing fortunes of David Mackenzie's Hell or High Water.  Those experts have been affected by something over the last month.  Meanwhile, Ben Affleck's Live by Night has taken a nose dive.

Telluride looks good for 3-5 Best Picture nominations.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (3)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (2)

4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

5) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)

6) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (6)

7) Pablo Larrian/Jackie (7)

8) Garth Davis/Lion (8)

9) Jeff Nichols/ Loving (9)

10) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (NR)

Hot: Mackenzie

Not: Clint Eastwood/Sully

On the Cusp: Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Comment: A very stable category over the last month.  Scorsese's spot at #4 might indicate that Silence is in better shape for a Best Pic nomination than its #7 rank would indicate.

Telluride sitting at 3-4 Best Directing nominations.




AN EARLY PEEK AT TFF#44 POSSIBILITIES

Each year any number of film outlets lay out their "most anticipated" lists for the following year. Normally those get published at the beginning of January and provide the first glimpse of what films lie ahead and, as a result give some clues about films that might make The SHOW.

This year, for whatever reason, The Playlist has jumped on the topic early.., a month early.  They posted their 100 Most Anticipated 2017 films on Tuesday.  It caught me a bit off guard and I thought that I might just pin the article and come back to it in a month or so I thought, "Why not?".

Consequently, I prepped my commentary Tuesday and Wednesday.  One of the things that I did was to look back at the past three years of the very same lists to see how much it corresponds to what actually happened over Labor Day weekend.  I wasn't very good at picking films from last year's list but was better in 2015 and 2014.  Here's what I mean:

Last year, from the 100 films that The Playlist mentioned, seven made the TFF lineup: Neruda, Una, Things to Come, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Arrival (which was titled The Story of Your Life at the time).  The only film among them that I named: Neruda.  Just for hoots, I went back and discovered that I first mentioned both La La Land and Moonlight for the first time in March.  Manchester had already been on the MTFB radar the year before.

In 2015 the list included: Carol, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette and Spotlight which I included on my Telluride-possibles as well as Room, 45 Years and Steve Jobs which I did not list.

In 2014 the list included: The Lunchbox, Mommy, Tracks and Wild that I didn't name for TFF but did include three films that I did pick: Birdman, Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner.

So, the conclusion is that somewhere on the list for 2017 are probably 7-8 titles that make the TFF #44 program and I'll get about three of them right out of the list of 20 guesses I have below.  Not the best odds, but I'm shooting in the dark here.

Here are the films listed by their position on The Playlist's list:

98- Redoubtable-Michel Hazanavicius' take of the life of film legend Jean-Luc Godard.
92- A Fantastic Woman- from Sebastian Lelio who brought his Gloria to T-ride in 2013.
90-The Lovers- from A24
85- Battle of the Sexes- Billy Jean King versus Bobby Riggs with Emma Stone and Steve Carell.  Produced by Danny Boyle
76- Lady Bird- The Playlist suggests Telluride as a possibility.
64- Wind River-from The Weinstein Company, because I think they'll be back at TFF.
62-Tully- Could Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody return?
57- Mektoub is Mektoub- Abdellatif Kechiche's follow up to Blue is the Warmest Color.
55- The Current War- Weinsteins
51-The Other Side of Hope- Maybe Aki Kauismaki (Le Harve/TFF 2011) returns.
41- Molly's Game-Could Aaron Sorkin return to T-ride with his directing debut?   It might depend on how he felt about the reception for Steve Jobs.  Maybe this gets Jessica Chastain into town.
33- Mudbound- Playlist mentions it as a possibility for Telluride.
28- Lean on Pete Andrews-Andrew Haigh could return after the success he had at T-ride with 45 Years.
25- Downsizing- Alexander Payne with Matt Damon starring.  Will likely start next summer's first "Ten Bets" list at the number one spot.
24- Loveless- Andrey Zvyagintsev had a great Telluride bow with his Leviathan in 2014.  Could portend a return.
21- Suburbicon- George Clooney directing.  I've always thought that Clooney was a good bet to come back to TFF.  He seemed to have such a good time there when he received a tribute in 2009 (Up in the Air).  This could be the ticket.
17-The Shape of Water- I've thought since Alfonso Cuaron made the trip with Gravity in 2013 that we'd probably see Guillermo Del Toro someday.  Del Toro is the third of the three amigos, Alejandro Inarritu being the other and Inarritu has practically been a Telluride citizen over the years (Babel, Biutiful, Birdman).  The Shape of Water seems like the kind of smaller Del Toro that could crack the TFF lineup.
16- Mother- Darren Aronofsky directs.  His success with Black Swan in 2010 makes a return a possibility.
15- You Were Never Really Here- Will Lynne Ramsay return after her success in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin?
9- Wonderstruck-Todd Haynes.  Past Telluride's : I'm Not There (2007) and Carol (2015).  Please return and bring Julianne Moore with you.
5- Happy End- Michael Haneke- Cache, The White Ribbon and Amour have all played T-ride so this seems likely.

The complete ;list of 100 films plus some bonus titles is here from The Playlist.

Although, I feel like I've detected a trend last couple of years toward shying away from this kind of obviousness in the program's curation.  Maybe it's just me, but no Audiard/Dheepan in 2015, for example.

One other note...The Playlist's #1 most anticipated is the announced Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day Lewis collaboration on a film set in the fashion world of 1950's New York.  Yes, it will be my most anticipated as well but I'll actually be surprised if it's ready in time for a 2017 date.  My guess would be a Cannes 2018 play with perhaps a NYFF screening and maybe an AFI screening as well.  I want to be wrong on all counts and see it in Telluride in 9 months.


AFI NAMES 2016'S BEST FILMS

Announced this afternoon are the American Film Institutes's Best Films of 2016:

Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water La La Land Manchester Moonlight Silence Sully Zootopia

It's an impressive showing for Telluride as five of the ten films played this year's fest: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Sully.

You can find more about the AFI list here from Indiewire.

Otherwise, back here on Monday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

Beginning to Read the Oscar Tea Leaves / Barry Jenkins Talks Moonlight with A.O. Scott / A Photo Gallery / Rate Those Films!!!

Hello and welcome to Thursday... Quick note about yesterday's post...I thought I had included Chris Schiller in my list of film friends and discovered I didn't.  I have corrected that but wanted to make sure to shout out Mr. Schiller who has been a really good friend to me and this space over the years.

BEGINNING TO READ OSCAR'S TEA LEAVES AS TELLURIDE ENDS AND TORONTO BEGINS

This is just the beginning of our long conversation that will end at the Academy Awards next February.  Oscar analysts are beginning to get a real feel about how the season may lay out and close followers of this space know that in the next couple of weeks it really changes from MTFB to The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  We'll track the Oscar race all the way through the season with special attention on the films that played as a part of TFF#43.

To that end I have linked the first post-Telluride analysis from Awards Daily's Sasha Stone, Awards Circuit's Mark Johnson and Indiewire's Anne Thompson.

TFF #43 films that get serious focus are:

La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Arrival, Sully.  Frankly, I'm beating the drum for Aaron Eckhardt to get a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Ben Younger's Bleed for This.  He's terrific.

Here are the respective pieces from:

Awards Daily

Awards Circuit

Indiewire



BARRY JENKINS TALKS MOONLIGHT WITH A.O. SCOTT

Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins sat down with The New York Times A.O. Scott recently and talked about his film, his life and his long history with the Telluride Film Festival.  The NYT posted the interview yesterday.  Check out the Barry Jenkins interview here.


A PHOTO GALLERY

My wife is the pictorial chronicler of our Telluride Film Fest adventures and I thought it might be cool to show some of the pics she got during last week's fest.  So here they are:

SULLY...HANKS AND EASTWOOD

ARRIVAL/AMY ADAMS

MANCHESTER/CASEY AFFLECK

LA LA LAND/EMMA STONE AND DAMIEN CHAZELLE

WAKEFIELD/BRYAN CRANSTON

NORMAN/RICHARD GERE

BRIGHT LIGHTS/CARRIE FISHER

RATE THOSE FILMS!!!

I had a really nice start yesterday with film ratings coming in from regular Janes and Joes that attended this year's TFF.  Keep them coming!  I'm keeping the polls open through this weekend at least but it won't be indefinite so send them in!  Use a 1 to 5 scale with 1 being abysmal and 5 being masterful.

and send them to me:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog itself.

Sundays TBAs by Venue / Day Two Comments / Day Three / Day Two Images

Welcome to Sunday and Day Three of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival


SUNDAY TBA'S BY VENUE

Galaxy

9:00am Bleed for This (replacing Amazing Grace)
9:30pm Sully

The Zog

9:30 am Arrival
10:00pm The B-Side (Free)

Masons
12:45 Graduation

Nugget

4:30pm Through the Wall
10:00pm Things to Come

Pierre

4:00pm  Frantz
6:30pm Student Prints
9:15pm Toni Erdmann

DAY TWO COMMENT

Opened with Sully which I really enjoyed much more than I expected to.  Nice turn by Hanks.  Maybe he will be in the Best Actor conversation.

Then Bright Lights which I also enjoyed.  Very warm and entertaining.  Highlight was during the and A when Debbie Reynolds phoned in to her son Todd Fisher and was able to speak briefly to those of us in the theater.

Then caught Barry Jenkins Moonlight.  Moving with fine performances across the board.  Naomie Harris could be in the Supporting Actress picture.

Ended the evening with Denis Villenieuve's Arrival and the Amy Adams tribute.  Adams was a joy in the pre-show Q and A.  It'll be interesting to see if Oscar voters warm to the SciFi story.

DAY THREE SCHEDULE (at least as it stands now)

Toni Erdmann
Una
Wakefield
Norman

Winners so far: La La Land and (surprise) Sully.  Liking Arrival, Moonlight.  Still not sold on Manchester.

DAY TWO IMAGES

Clint Eastwood exiting after Sully:

Amy Adams at her Tribute:

Carrie Fisher following Bright Lights:

Drector and cast of Sully at Q and A (Aaron Eckhardt, Laura Linney, Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks):

Contacts:

mpgort@gmail.com

michael_speech@hotmail.com

Twitter: @Gort2

Day One in the Books / Day Two and the Plan / TBAs for Saturday

It's Saturday and Day Two of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival.

DAY ONE IN THE BOOKS

Patron Brunch yesterday was great.  Ate with good friends and made some new ones.  Mark Helfrich was kind enough to introduce me to one of this year's tribute recipients: Casey Affleck:

After that I made a quick stop to the Press Orientation where probably the most important news was that there are no planned "Sneaks" for this year.

Following that I made my way up to the Chuck Jones for the Patron screening of Damien Chazelle's La La Land.  I'll admit that a built from scratch movie musical has had me dubious but it won me over.  Great work from Ryan Gosling and particularly Emma Stone.  If anyone runs into Emma this weekend...pass it on MTFB thinks she's fantastic in this.  Also, tell her that I'd like to meet her too.

Grabbed a quick kabob at the Opening Night Feed and then attended the tribute to Casey Affleck followed by a screening of Manchester by the Sea.  This title has had a lot of buzz since it popped at Sundance back in January.  Honestly I found it overly long.  It just seemed like the first act was really lethargic.  That perception wasn't aided by the fact that The Palm was a sauna.

The last half hour or so is well done.  Michelle Williams is quite good and Affleck is as well.  Also young actor Lucas Hedges hangs with the adults admirably.

Final note about the film: the music was overbearing to the point of distraction.

Overall for the moment MTFB says La La Land 4/5 and Manchester 2.5/5

For those whose minds run to such things, my guess is that La La Land will likely be a big hit thus weekend and consequently make some fairly serious noise when the talk turns to Oscar.  Score, Song, possibly the Sound Editing and Mixing categories.  Maybe Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Film Editing.  Gosling could Squeeze in for Actor but that's going to be a tougher sell.

Manchester's Affleck and Williams have been getting mentioned for Actor and Supporting Actress since Sundance but...Best bets, at least in my view are a nod for Williams and an Original Screenplay nod for Kenneth Lonergan.  Affleck could get in but, like Gosling, the competition is probably going to be brutal.

I'll be interested to hear what some of the real Oscar pundits have to say.

DAY TWO AND THE PLAN

This is what I think I'll be doing tomorrow:

Sully/Palm @10am
Bright Lights/Palm @1pm
Moonlight/Galaxy @4:30pm
Amy Adams Tribute w/Arrival/Palm @7pm


TBA'S FOR SATURDAY:

I'm taking these TBAs from what is appearing on the TFF #43 App as of late last night:

By Venue:

The Galaxy:
1:15 Manchester by the Sea
7:45 Arrival

The Zog
1:00 Wakefield
4:00 The Eagle Huntress
10:00 Lost in Paris

The Masons
3:00 Things to Come
8:00 Great Expectations
10:30 End of Eden

Le Pierre
8:15pm Fire at Sea
10:30pm Maudie


FINALLY...

A big thanks to those of you who have been passing along the kind words about reading this space. It really does mean more than you know.

Hints and Allegations / Tributes Anyone? / Sully Shots

Good Monday everyone.  The 43rd Telluride Film Festival begins in 4 days!


HINTS AND ALLEGATIONS

I ran across a lot of revealing information over the weekend pointing to confirmations or near confirmations of a number of films that dot the latest Ten (Plus) Bets list from last Friday.

The most telling is the all but certainty now that Clint Eastwood's Sully is part of the fest this week.

Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere nudged up against declaring it to be a part of the lineup on Friday afternoon in this HE Post .  Then Saturday evening Wells went all in saying that Sully "will premiere at next weekend's Telluride Film Festival."  That post is Here .

So count Sully as an in...and more about some possible ramifications below...

Also buttressing the Sully claim was the latest Screen Talk podcast from Indiewire featuring Anne Thomson and Eric Kohn (both of whom will join in from Telluride this week as part of The Professionals who will rate films that they see for MTFB).  The first part of the podcast deals with Telluride and its influence and though they go to great pains to stress that they "know nothing" they suggest a number of "possibilities".  I suspect that they "know" more than they can admit.

They run out five titles including Sully.  The other four currently are in the last Ten Bets list and they are: Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Bleed for This.  So, though they can't tell us any more than that these titles are speculative, it is my belief that they are all but confirming them for this weekend.

That podcast is here: Indiewire Screen Talk: Telluride

Additionally, Pete Hammond writing for Deadline.com mentions in his review of the just opened Hands of Stone mentions the wave of boxing pics arriving at nearly the same time writing "Bleed for this which debuts next week at the Telluride Film Festival".  That review is here: Deadline.com

And still there is more...

A number of sharp eyed individuals contacted MTFB in the past couple of days to give me a heads up with regard to this year's TFF app.

If you downloaded the app already, then you will have seen the tab to click for the map.  If you do that or look at this screen grab:

You're going to see mention of The Eagle Huntress for the Abel Gance Outdoor Theater (letter B) and The Elsa Dorfman Gallery at The Courthouse (letter D).

These clues tell us that the documentary The Eagle Huntress (From Sony Pictures Classics) will be playing the festival in some capacity and that the Elsa Dorfman Gallery presence confirms that Errol Morris' The B-Side will be playing as well.  A note about The Eagle Huntress: it played Sundance back in January and its presence along with the now-expected Manchester by the Sea will mark the first time that I'm aware that TFF has programmed two Sundance films in a single year.

So, taken altogether, we can add two more films to the "we're pretty sure" will play list: Sully and The Eagle Huntress and we believe that five others are all but confirmed: The B-Side, La La Land, Manchester, Arrival and Bleed for This.

And don't forget, we added Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fischer and Debbie Reynolds last Friday via Anne Thompson.

Remember the final Ten (Plus) Bets will be posted Wednesday morning.

TRIBUTES ANYONE?

I've touched on possible tributes a few times this summer and now, with so few days remaining, it seems like a good time to get really serious about assessing who might get Silver Medallions this weekend.

To start, let's look at the list of possible attendees I posted on Aug. 23:

From Things to Come: Isabelle Huppert

From La La Land: Emma Stone  and Ryan Gosling (JK Simmons would be cool too)

From Arrival: Amy Adams, Forest Whitaker and Jeremy Renner

From Moonlight: Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris and Janelle Monae

From Bleed for This: Miles Teller, Katey Sagal and Aaron Eckhardt (Ted Levine would be cool too)

From Neruda: Gael Garcia Bernal

From Una: Rooney Mara and Ben Mendelsohn

From Maudie: Sally Hawkins and Ethan Hawke

From: Manchester by the Sea: Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams (producer Matt Damon would be cool too)

From: Norman: The Moderate Rise... Richard Gere (Steve Buscemi and Hank Azaria would be cool too)

From: Wakefield: Bryan Cranston and Jennifer Garner

From other possibles and still outside shots:

From Sully: Tom Hanks, Laura Linney, Aaron Eckhardt and director Clint Eastwood

From: The Accountant: Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick (JK Simmons, John Lithgow and Jeffrey Tambor would also be cool)

From Live by Night: Ben Affleck, Scott Eastwood, Zoe Saldana and Elle Fanning (Chris Cooper, Chris Medina, Brendan Gleeson would also be cool)

From Eternity: Audrey Tautou, Berenice Bejo and Melanie Laurent

From The Founder: Michael Keaton, Laura Dern (Nick Offerman would be cool)

From The Circle:Tom Hanks and Emma Watson (Patton Oswalt would be cool)

From Gold: Matthew McConnaughey, Bryce Dallas Howard and Edgar Ramirez (Corey Stoll and Bill Camp would be very, very cool)

From Miss Sloane: Jessica Chastain (Mark Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, John Lithgow and Sam Waterston would be cool)

From The Sense of an Ending: Emily Mortimer (Jim Broadbent would be cool)

From this list we can move Sully from the "other possibles and outside shots" to the "probable" category and see what we can discern.

Let's focus on the films listed here that seem "probable" now for T-ride.

First, we can dispel both Clint Eastwood and Isabelle Huppert from tribute consideration as each have already been feted by TFF (Huppert in 1986 and Eastwood in 1990).  Rooney Mara was tributed last year, so mark her off.  Lauara Linney was also a tributee (2004).

Of the actors in the probable list...I can see the possibility of wither Forest Whitaker or Amy Adams from Arrival getting a tribute.  Whitaker's Best Actor Oscar in 2007 came from Last King of Scotland which made a big splash at the 2006 TFF.

Neruda offers Telluride regular Gael Garcia Bernal who could easily be set for a tribute for his now fairly lengthy career.

Maybe Ethan Hawke or for that matter Sally Hawkins both of whom are in Maudie.

From Manchester by the Sea, I could actually see producer Matt Damon getting a tribute.

Richard Gere would be a terrific tribute candidate and I expect that if Norman: The Rise and Fall plays, he could well be in town.

Wakefield's Bryan Cranston is red hot right now but as most of his experience has been in television up to the last few years, I suspect a tribute for him is farther down the road.

And, of course, if Sully is in play, Tom Hanks seems to scream for a tribute.  But remember, I was all in for a Michael Keaton tribute last year.  Was really certain that would happen and...um...I was wrong.  So even what seems like an obvious choice might not be the actual choice.

Tributes at Telluride are rarely completely actor focused.  Directors are also a big favorite for the honors but finding a director from the "probable" list that isn't relatively early in their career is a bit difficult (Chazelle, Hansen-Love, Villeneuve for examples).  So, maybe TFF looks eleswhere for a tribute.

Or, I'd still like the fest to honor the film Taxi Driver on its 40th anniversary in much the same way that they did Apocalypse Now a couple of years ago.

Nevertheless, the above paragraphs could contain the names of each of the three recipients or none at all.  TFF tributes are notoriously difficult to anticipate.

You have any ideas or guesses?  Shoot me a line.  My contact info is below.


SULLY SHOTS

Tom Hanks in Sully (via The Playlist)

Now that we're thinking that Sully is a probable lock to play the fest, it seems like The Playlist's post from yesterday with a ton of stills from the film might be fun for those of you looking forward to it, here's a link to that post.  Sully Pics from The Playlist


One other note about Sully; I suspect that its inclusion means that we will not see Warners other two possible films that I have been keeping tabs on this summer: Live by Night and The Accountant.


REMINDER...

Don't forget to relay your film ratings for The People's Telluride this weekend.  I'd suggest that you wait until we get through the whole of the fest and then contact me with your complete list of films and your ratings of them on a 1 to 5 scale with 1 being poor and 5 being wonderful!  Use any of the contact methods below:

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

Michael's Telluride Film Blog Facebook Page

Or leave a comment.

MTFB in Other Places / Journey Through French Film / Eight Days a Week Spec / Some Sully Buzz / Follow and Rate

Welcome back from the weekend to this Monday in late August.  It's less than two weeks to TFF #43 and the anticipation is building.


MTFB IN OTHER PLACES

I ran across a mention of likely Telluride films in a couple of places yesterday.  The first was Mind of a Suspicious Kind by Jordan Ruimy.  I looked up the post and found that it contained a list of 20 films probable for Telluride.  That list is film for film the same as last Friday's Ten (Plus) Bets with the only difference being that this list was alphabetized.   Ruimy says at the top of the post that the info had come from "from a usually reliable source".

Then last night, Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere posted the same list with a link to MTFB.  Seems that Ruimy is Well's guest on the next version of his Oscar Podcast.

I have three takeaways.  1) It feels to me that MTFB is probably the origin of the list that they're working from. 2) The Wells post makes it seem clear that the latest Ten (Plus) Bets is relatively accurate and 3) as per Wells post it appears that there is at least "one major American film that is definitely going" to Telluride (per Wells' source) that is NOT mentioned on any version of the list. That's exciting and makes me wonder if that "major American film" might be Sully (more about that below) or the Venice-announced film that I alluded to in my post last Friday under the heading "Whispers and Whispers".

That's intriguing.

Here are links to both the Hollywood Elsewhere and Mind of a Suspicious Kind posts from yesterday:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/08/assuredlikelyprobably-telluride/

http://suspiciouskind.blogspot.com/2016/08/is-this-telluride-lineup.html



JOURNEY THROUGH FRENCH FILM

(photo from Indiewire)

Over the weekend we discovered that Bertrand Tavernier's massive (190 min.)  Journey Through French Cinema will be featured at the New York Film Festival.  The retrospective of the history of French film is something that I feel moderately confident will get a try out in the San Juans over the Labor Day weekend before Tavernier tackles it in New York in October.  Journey Through French Cinema sat at #20 in last week's Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #43.

Here's the story of its inclusion for NYFF from Indiewire:


http://www.indiewire.com/2016/08/nyff-2016-retrospective-bertrand-tavernier-my-journey-through-french-cinema-1201718505/



EIGHT DAYS A WEEK SPEC

I have speculated, suggested, campaigned...choose your verb...on behalf of the possible inclusion of Ron Howard's Beatles documentary Eight Days a Week: The Touring Years as a part of Telluride's lineup for this year.

I have mentioned that there are circumstantial indicators that indicate that it is at least possible.  The film's release date comes a couple of weeks after Telluride.  The streaming service Hulu, which has the rights to the film, has partnered with distributor Abramorama for a theatrical release on Sept. 16. Hulu is scheduled to begin streaming the film the following day.  Abramorama has been involved at Telluride in recent years with two films on the TFF #42 slate last year: Time to Choose and Heart of a Dog.  They also had Particle Fever at TFF in 2013; so there is some historical precedent in as far as the distributor is concerned.

For a awhile, I thought that Eight Days a Week might be the special addition to the Venice lineup that Venice Film Fest head man Alberto Barbera hinted might be coming when that fest announced its lineup at the end of July but that hasn't materialized.

Nevertheless, I can hope.  Added to that hope was this post from Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere in which he asks the question about the possibility of a Telluride screening but also admits that he has no inside information that would lead him to believe that it will happen.  There's just the implication that, like me, he'd like to see the film pop at T-ride in a few days.

Here's the H.E. post:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/08/and-howards-beatles-doc-will-be-screened/



SOME SULLY BUZZ

I mentioned in last Friday's post that there had been some increasing chatter about the possibility of Clint Eastwood's Sully starring Tom Hanks as the true life hero of the Miracle on the Hudson (Capt. Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger).  I wrote then that I was still "dubious" about the chances that it would play TFF #43.

There ARE reasons to think that it COULD happen.  The film is from Warner Bros. and, as I have written repeatedly this summer, WB has been a fairly common player at Telluride over the past four years.  Telluride regular Laura Linney has a substantial role in the film as Sully's wife Lorraine and though the window is tight in terms of the release of the film (Sept. 9), it's possible.  Eastwood himself is a past T-ride tribute recipient in 1990 and was guest again in 1998.

All that to get to this...the buzz for a Sully screening grew somewhat over the weekend.  It's not that anyone is actually saying, "Hey, Sully will be at Telluride", but I'm still hearing that people are "hearing" that it might play Telluride.

Bottom line, it seems a little more possible today than it did Friday.

Additionally, we got a new trailer for Sully over the weekend.  Here it is from YouTube:

I've also included Alex Billington's/FirstShowing.net story about the release of the second trailer:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/watch-second-trailer-for-clint-eastwoods-sully-starring-tom-hanks/


FOLLOW AND RATE

Here's your reminder to click the newly installed "FOLLOW" button in the upper right hand corner of this page and make it easier to get MTFB as we close in on and then get to the Telluride Film Festival.

Also, don't forget to make plans to rate the films you see at TFF #43 as a part of The People's Telluride project.  Rate films 1-5 and send those ratings to me and I'll collate the information and post it here,

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

Or leave a comment.

Ten (Plus) Bets #9 / Still No Fest Home / Live by Night in December? / Whispers and More Whispers / Burns for the Museum / And Congratulations

It is Friday...finally...

TEN (PLUS) BETS #9

We start today with an update of the weekly Ten Bets list that has more than ten bets.


Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Julieta
15) Graduation
14) High Summer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Moonlight
6) Bleed for This
5) Neruda
4) Things to Come
3) La La Land
2) Toni Erdmann
1) Arrival

And now, here is the latest version of Ten (Plus) Bets:

20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Wakefield
15) Graduation
14) Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Neruda
6) Bleed for This
5) Moonlight
4) Arrival
3) La La Land
2) Things to Come
1) Toni Erdmann

Almodovar's Julieta drops off due to its TIFF designation as a North American Premiere.  I also dropped the animated French short High Summer to make way for the two films we think are in play after the latest TIFF reveal: Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.



Other films that are still in somewhat serious play: The Circle, Miss Sloane, The Sense of an Ending, Exile, Peshmerga, Gold, Eternity, The Founder.

STILL NO FILM FEST HOME...

The list of films that might still be possible for a Telluride slot is getting smaller.  As of this post, these films do not have a festival berth that I'm aware of:

Rules Don't Apply (rumored for AFI)
Allied
Fences
Gold
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Live by Night (supposedly heading for a December Oscar qualifying limited release, see below)
The Accountant
Sully
The Founder
The Mercy
Passengers
Wild Oats
Eternity
Silence
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk


LIVE BY NIGHT IN DECEMBER?

A number of film outlets were all over a reported comment made by Ben Affleck's Live by Night co-star Elle Fanning to the effect that the film would be seeing the light of day before the end of 2016. That has been a train of thought for some time since Warners moved the film's announced release date up from Oct. 2017 to Jan. 13, 2017.

To the best of  my knowledge there has been no confirmation from the WB people.

Here's the Elle Fanning story:

http://theplaylist.net/elle-fanning-says-ben-afflecks-live-night-will-arrive-december-20160817/



WHISPERS AND MORE WHISPERS

Eastwood and Hanks on the set of Sully (from CowboysandIndians.com)

We've reached that time of the year when the rumor mill is beginning to crank up to full capacity in regard to TFF.  Sometimes those tidbits pan out.  Often they do not.  The latest couple of quiet little buzzes have to do with Warners debuting Clint Eastwood's Sully (with Tom Hanks) as a part of the fest.  I'm dubious.

I've also heard that there could be another Venice title that makes the trip across the Atlantic in conjunction with a tribute.  What makes this intriguing is that this film would be in addition to a film that I think is already going to play Telluride and both of them feature the same star who would be the focus of the tribute.  Further, there is the suggestion that this new "Venice/T-ride crossover" is set to play Toronto and that it's currently listed premiere status is misleading.

I'm not ready to jump on board this yet, or name the possible new film but I believe that this story has more potential to be true than the Sully whisper mentioned above.

Stay tuned...



BURNS FOR THE TELLURIDE HISTORICAL MUSEUM

Got an email earlier this week that revealed that big time Telluride supporter and frequent presenter Ken Burns will be doing a pre-fest program for the Telluride Historical Museum on Aug. 28.  An Evening with Ken Burns will be presented for the third consecutive year and will take place at The Palm Theater at Telluride High.  Admission is $25 or $20 for Museum members.

Burns will be screening some of his National Parks: America's Greatest Idea documentary.  The program starts at 6pm.

I have linked more information here:

http://www.telluridemuseum.org/pressitem/an-evening-with-ken-burns-tickets-on-sale-now/


AND CONGRATULATIONS

Greg Ellwood announced yesterday that his Awards Campaign website will now be a part of The Playlist for whom he will be covering the awards season.  Congrats Greg!

Ellwood will be one of the more than a dozen industry pros that will be a part of MTFB's annual Professionals Telluride film ratings.

Here's coverage of the move from Greg's site:

http://awardscampaign.com/2016/08/18/awards-campaign-is-moving-to-the-playlist/



That's a wrap for this Friday.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

Or leave a comment.

Ten Bets #9/Invitation/Master Sneaking/Trouble

Good Monday Everyone...

A note or two news wise...Director Tony Scott appears to have committed suicide in Los Angeles last night and long time actor William Windom has died.  Scott was 68 and Windom was 88.

Scott: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001716/

Windom: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0934750/

I've got an interesting William Windom story I'll try to share tomorrow.


TEN BETS #9

By this time last year, I think I was posting up to 20 guesses...maybe not as sure this year...

Last week's "Ten Bets":


1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) Amour
5) No
6) The Central Park Five
7) Bromberg's Chaplin
8) Pixar's "Rainy Day Tales"
9) On the Road
10) Beyond the Hills


This week's "Ten Bets":

1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) Amour
5) No
6) The Iceman
7) The Central Park Five
8) Bromberg's Chaplin
9) On the Road
10) Beyond the Hills

If the past is any indication, this next ten days should see a definite pick up in chatter about the TFF #39 program.


INVITATION

Here's your reminder to come along to the party...The Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW" is set for Friday, Aug. 31 at 5:00 pm at The River Club in Telluride (550 Depot).  It should be fun.

MASTER SNEAKING

Paul Thomas Anderson continued over the weekend his semi-subversive sneak previews of "The Master".  Saturday night included two screenings in different theaters in New York City.  The rumor in the last 24 hours or so is that it pops up in San Francisco tomorrow night.  

At this point I am this whole parade has shaken my attempts to clearly evaluate its chances of playing Telluride.  Frankly, I don't know if the "sneaks" make it more or less likely that we see it at the Palm in a few days.  This whole "sneak preview" road show is unlike anything I've ever encountered since I've been writing this blog.  So...hope the peeps in Toronto and Venice enjoy and maybe us too?

TROUBLE

If there has been a film with some very quiet and very subtle buzz about its possibility of being in Telluride over the last 2-3 weeks or so, that would be "Trouble with the Curve" from writer-director Robert Lorenz and starring (possibly for the last time) Clint Eastwood as well as Amy Adams and Justin Timberlake.  InContention's Kris Tapley is bullish on its chances and in the last few days Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) has suggested that it could be in T-ride.

A Clint Eastwood tribute would make a lot of sense...

More later...

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"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

Master Chances/Best of the Week

Good Saturday from Telluride, CO.  That's right.  I'm here today and will be back in less than 3 weeks for the best 4 days of the year.  Heading home tomorrow as I start school this week.


MASTER CHANCES

I apologize for my obsessing over Paul Thomas Anderson's new film.  I realize it's much like last year's obsessiveness about "The Tree of Life" and I suspect that I'll find another one to obsess about for next year (actually, "12 Years a Slave" is already a leading candidate).

It's just that I think that Anderson might be the best film director in America right now (I think "There Will Be Blood" is the best American film of this relatively new century) and nothing I've seen or heard about "The Master" seems todiminish the notion that it will likely be a fantastic film...so naturally I have been hopeful that it will appear on the Telluride slate.

Then last night a post from Jeffrey Wells on his Hollywood Elsewhere website that throws cold water on the idea.  Wells says that his sources are all saying no "Master" in T-ride.  Wells doesn't seem very happy about that either.

Now, Wells doesn't flat out say it won't happen and actually also reports that there may have been some prep here in Telluride to present in 70mm...which would tilt toward the belief that "The Master" would happen here.  Additionally, in the comments section "Buckzollo" suggests his belief that "The Master" will appear as a TBA here.  That's exactly the form I have thought was most likely.  Purportedly the film will make its Venice debut on Saturday Sept.1 which has led me to think that we could see it here as a "sneak" on Sunday and/or Monday.

So, I'm going to do a little sniffing around while I'm in town today and see if I can get any kind of sense of what's going on.  Ultimately, I'm still not completely abandoning my hopes for the film being in TFF #39...but I put the chances now at 5%.

One other note from the Wells post is that he confirms that Roger Michell's "Hyde Park on Hudson" will play.  "Hyde Park" has been parked on my "Ten Bets" list all summer.

Here's the link to the Wells' post:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/08/no_master_in_te_1.php


BEST OF THE WEEK

Here's the best of posts from MTFB/FAC for this past week:



This week's "Ten Bets"

1) Amour
2) Rust and Bone
3) Midnight's Children
4) The Central Park Five
5) Bromberg's Chaplin
6) Hyde Park on Hudson
7) No
8) On the Road
9) The Reluctant Fundamentalist
10) Beyond the Hills

Check the new "Ten Bets" list on Monday...hint..."Hyde Park" will be moving higher on the list.


CLOUD ATLAS VIEWS

 http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/cloud-atlas-visual-timeline-reveals-more-photos-of-the-ever-changing-faces-of-its-cast-20120805


CENTRAL PARK FIVE

Ken Burns and crew have a trailer cut for the Toronto International Film Festival.  As I am calling the documentary the #4 bet this week among the "Ten Bets" I have included that trailer:

MASTER POSTER #2

A second poster for Paul Thomas Anderson's "The Master" has emerged as it seems that there is some nugget everyday about the highly anticipated film.

Here's the new poster:

Also included is the post from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/kaleidoscopic-new-poster-for-paul-thomas-andersons-the-master-will-leave-you-feeling-blue-20120806

CLINT'S TRAILER

Clint Eastwood, Amy Adams and Justin Timberlake star in Robert Lorenz's "Trouble with the Curve"  The first trailer is out and linked below from YouTube:

Check the story at The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-its-gran-torino-meets-moneyball-in-trailer-for-trouble-with-the-curve-20120807



TROUBLE POSTER


Robert Lorenz's "Trouble with Curve" starring Clint Eastwood (and now a hot Telluride possibility per Mr. Tapley) has a poster.   It looks like this:

Via Rope of Silicon

Here's the post from Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/new-posters-skyfall-character-posters-trouble-with-the-curve-and-red-dawn/ 

MORE ON THE ROAD

Walter Salles "On the Road" still is a real Telluride possibility and has released a second trailer.  Linked here form YouTube:

Find more information here from Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/08/06/kristen-stewart-garrett-hedlund-on-the-road-trailer-2/




TAPLEY'S TAKE

Incontention/HitFix's Kris Tapley is already on record with some Telluride guessing but last night he tweeted two very specific lists in regard to the festival which is a mere three weeks away at this point.

Tweet #1:"Probables" for Telluride:

Probablies for Telluride: Argo, At Any Price, Hyde Park on Hudson, Passion, Rust and Bone, Silver Linings Playbook, Trouble with the Curve.

Tweet #2:  And "Maybes"

Maybes for Telluride: Amour, Great Expectations, Killing Them Softly, The Master, No, Smashed, To the Wonder



First to the "probablies"...Yes Please..."Hyde Park", "Rust and Bone",  have been solidly on the "Ten Bets" list all summer.  "Silver Linings" has flirted with making that list.  "Argo" has been more of a wish than a likelihood.  

As to "Trouble with the Curve", Tapley said a few weeks back he had a hunch about it and he clearly still feels strongly...Eastwood in town?  It would be cool.  

And DePalma's "Passion" wouldn't be a shocker..."Redacted" showed up as a 'sneak" back in 2006...so it's possible.

Then there are his "maybes":  I'm for any scintilla of a chance that "The Master" makes it to the San Juans.  I have also been bullish that "Amour" and "No" will make the trip to T-ride and continue to be.

I think the other "maybes"  are less likely, although I'd be primed for "Killing Them Softly" and Malick's "To the Wonder" and you could certainly make the case that Ben Affleck might show in support of both his "Argo" and the Malick film especially if Mrs. Affleck (Jennifer Garner) went home from last year's fest and raved about it...




More later...Have a good weekend!


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