Thursday, October 2, 2014

The Film Awards Clearinghouse Vol. 2-Four Major Categories/HitFix-InContention Survey the Oscar Field/Inherent Trailer/Last Note: Trumbo

Hello on a Monday...October is just around the corner.


As the New York Film Festival roared to life over the past weekend, I took the opportunity to take another snapshot of the four biggest races in the Oscar contest for 2014.  In the wake of the conclusion of the triumvirate of September fests (Telluride, Toronto and Venice) and the first reviews coming out for the NYFF opener, David Fincher's "Gone Girl", there has been some movement in some of the categories.

As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold.
A film/person's rating in the last FAC is listed to the right in parentheses.


1) The Imitation Game (3)
2) Birdman (1)
3) Boyhood (2)
4) The Theory of Everything (6)
5) Unbroken (5)
6) Interstellar (7)
7) Foxcatcher (4)
8) Gone Girl (8)
9) Mr. Turner (9)
10) Fury (NR)
11) Selma (NR)
12) Whiplash (NR)
13) Into the Woods (NR)
14) Wild (NR)
15) The Grand Budapest Hotel (10)

Comment:  Big boost to "The Imitation Game" coming out of Telluride and then winning the audience award at Toronto.  "Theory" also got a good bump from Toronto.  "Foxcatcher" and "Grand Budapest" getting the worst of it over the last couple of weeks.

Watch out for J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year" which has been announced as the opening film for the American Film Institute festival on Nov. 6th.


1) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (1)
2) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (2)
3) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (5)
4) Christopher Nolan/Interstellar (4)
5) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (6)
6) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (3)
7) David Fincher/Gone Girl (NR)
8) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (NR)
9) David Ayer/Fury (7)
10) Mike Leigh/Mr. Turner (8)

Comment: Wes Anderson and Paul Thomas Anderson drop out.  I expect PTA will jump back into the conversation once "Inherent Vice" plays as the centerpiece for the New York Film Festival.  There's been big momentum for Jolie, Fincher and Marsh in the past two weeks and, as I expected and wrote in the first FAC for Best Director, Morten Tyldum moved up a spot to #5 and would be a nominee if these stats prove accurate.


1) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (1)
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (4)
3) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (8)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (3)
5) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (2)
6) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (6)
7) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (9)
8) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (5)
9) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (7)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (10)

Comment:  Julianne Moore rockets up the chart after her Toronto performance.  I expect that she'll move to the top spot by the time I get the next FAC for Best Actress up.  Amy Adams and Meryl Streep take a dive...and I get the feeling that that may be prophetic.  Who benefits?  Chastain would be my bet.  My five would be: Moore, Witherspoon, Pike, Jones and Chastain (for "Most Violent Year").


1) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (2)
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (4)
4) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (3)
5) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (5)
6) David Oyelowo/Selma (6)
7) Bill Murray/St. Vincent (8)
8) Jack O'Connell/Unbroken (10)
9) Joaquin Phoenix/Inherent Vice (9)
10) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (7)

Comment: This has been a fairly stable category the last two weeks despite bring generally regarded as one of the most competitive categories.  The top three men are so tightly packed that it's likely going to be tight right to the end.  Big boost for O'Connell (who would replace Timothy Spall in my guesses at the five nominees) and Fiennes suffers the biggest drop.


The crew at HitFix and In Contention have put together a lengthy list of Best Picture contenders and assess the chances of each of the films at winning the big prize on Feb. 22.  The TFF #41 films on their list (alphabetically):

"The Homesman"
"The Imitation Game"
"Mr. Turner"

The complete post is here:

INHERENT TRAILER's not a Telluride film but I couldn't help linking to the trailer for Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" that dropped earlier this week.  I'll be honest, I've been a little reluctant about embracing/anticipating this film.  I love me some PTA but I found, in reading the Thomas Pynchon novel, that the loosey goosey structure to be entertaining for awhile and then a little annoying.  Occasional comparisons to PTA's "Punch Drunk Love" didn't's his one film that I think is really just bad.

But recent reports that "Vice" is inspired/informed by Zucker-esque films such as "Airplane" and "Top Secret" have me re-intrigued.  The trailer is also...interesting.  Check it here and take a look at a number of posts/stories about the film and the trailer that I have also linked:

"Inherent Vice" trailer (via YouTube)


On Monday I posted a list of five films that might have a future at Telluride and at #3 on that list was Jay Roach's "Trumbo" which will star Bryan Cranston as the blackballed author and screenwriter.  I admitted than that I had no real Telluride connections that I could point to such as a producer, director or dustributor with a Telluride history.

Fortunately MTFB reader Patrick Pringle was on the ball and pointed out that Dalton Trumbo came from that part of Colorado.  Patrick reminded me that Trumbo was born in Montrose, CO. and raised in nearby Grand Junction.  For all practical purposes, Dalton Trumbo was a hometown boy.  

Thanks Patrick!

More on Monday...Have a great weekend.

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