Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know". Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.
Here's the Thompson rundown:
The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).
The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:
Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock
I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.
The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul. That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own. If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.
Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above. But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite
Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note: this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020. That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week. I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today. So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:
10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite
Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.
Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.
OSCAR RAMBLINGS
I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April. Here me out...
What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021? I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date. I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel. I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.
So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?
Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above: Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".
What films then do become players? Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.
Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.
Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list: Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May). Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated. Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).
Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).
Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.
And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).
I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021. Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.
So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold. 1) Nomadland
2) Mank 3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7 5) Soul 6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward
And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.
THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER
I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.
COHEN MEDIA GROUP
Cohen's TFF History:
2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack
Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:
Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%
KINO LORBER
KL's TFF History:
2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain
Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:
There Is No Evil 50%
SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS
The Sundance/IFC TFF History:
2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals
2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield
2015: 45 Years
2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS
The series of analyzing the films that specific distribution companies have in the pipeline and their chance at playing TFF #45 continues today looking at the partnered firms of Sundance Selects and IFC Films.
Here's the recent history of Sundance Selects and IFC Films with TFF:
Looking for a probable film from these outfits this year is a difficult proposition. This again is likely a result of the growth of Amazon and Netflix within the film industry as well as the expansion of entities like A24, Neon and Annapurna.
My best prediction for a film from this combo is Roger Michell's documentary There's Nothing Like a Dame.
The doc focuses on the lives and careers of four legendary British actresses: Eileen Atkins, Joan Plowright, Judi Dench and Maggie Smith.
Another reason to think that it might make a TFF play is Roger Michell's history with the fest. Past Michell films at T-ride include Venus and Hyde Park on Hudson.
The film has no known release date at this time per IMDb all of which suggests that it could make the Labor Day lineup.
Chances: 30%.
2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2015: 45 Years
2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield 2017: Eating Animals
THE 4TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED
Counting down the last few beginning TFFs now as we look back to the fourth fest that was held Sept. 2-5, 1977.
Tributes: Michael Powell, Agnes Varda, Ben Carre
SHOWS:
The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz
The Ascent
Black Narcissus
The Bluebird
Cleo from 5 to 7
Coup de Grace
Dagguerotypes
The Devil's Playground
A Geisha
I Know Where I'm Going
It Happened Here
La Pointe Courte
La Roi des Champs Elysees
Le Bonheur
The Light in the Dark
Lion's Love
The Magician
A Matter of Life and Death
Nine Months
Old San Francisco
Picture Show Man
Primary
Queen of Apollo
The Red Dance
Rudd Family Goes to Town
Scaramouche
The Spy in Black
The Squatter's Daughter
The Volunteer
Voyage to the Grand Tartary
Wake and Fright
Winstanley
A Woman's Face
GUESTS:
Werner Herzog
Ed Lachman
Martin Scorsese
MARWEN TRAILER LOOMING
Steve Carell on the set of Welcome to Marwen
Steve Carell has a couple of projects that could end up in front of Telluride audiences by the time we get to Labor Day weekend. The more likely is Beautiful Boy co-starring actor of the moment Timothee Chalamet.
The other is, like Beautiful Boy, based on a true story of a man finding a novel way of healing himself in the aftermath of a harsh attack.
Robert Zemeckis directs Welcome to Marwen. Word from Anton Volkov/Trailer Track that a Marwen trailer drop is imminent.
Welcome back from your weekend. Mine was spent in the land of Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul...
THE DISTRIBUTORS: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS
Among the more ubiquitous set of distribution firms at Telluride over the past several years has been the combination of Sundance Selects and IFC Films.
Over the run of more than a dozen years, the two partnered firms have racked up an impressive number of films that have screened at Telluride:
2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2015: 45 Years
2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield
This year, between the two companies there appear to be four films that might be in play:
Perhaps the most likely is Jonas Capignano's A Ciambra. The film played Cannes in the Director's Fortnight section and was, in part, executive produced by Martin Scorsese who has frequently been represented at T-ride in recent years as an executive producer. Chances: 45%.
Also in play is Claire Denis' Bright Sunshine In which also played Cannes' Director's Fortnight. Denis, to the best of my knowledge has never played in the San Juans. That could change this year. Chances: 40%.
The Death of Stalin from Veep and Into the Loop creator Armando Iannucci. I'd love this as an addition to the TFF #44 lineup because of Iannucci and the potential for this crazy good cast (Steve Buscemi, Olga Kurylenko, Andrea Riseborough, Jeffrey Tambor, Michael Palin) to do something hilarious and magical.
Chances 35%.
Viceroy's House. Played Berlin which usually has a couple of films make the TFF lineup.
Chances: 25%.
BATTLE OF THE SEXES NEW TRAILER
Fresh off of last week's speculation by Deadline's Pete Hammond that he was in the neighborhood of 99% convinced that the Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris film, Battle of the Sexes would play at The SHOW over Labor Day weekend came the news that a new trailer for the film had been released.
That's the second trailer for the film. Here it is via YouTube:
After Hammond's assessment and my own take last week as I began to look at what we can expect from various distributors, in the case of Battle of the Sexes that's Fox Searchlight, it's possible that the film may show up at the end of this week on 2017's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #44. There's your tease for Friday's post.
Links to posts from Friday with coverage of the trailer's release. From First Showing From SlashFilm TRAILER FOR STRONGER ALSO RAISES T-RIDE SPECULATION
Just like the above story, David Gordon Green's Stronger dropped a trailer on Friday. Paul Sheehan, writing at Gold Derby, suggested that the film would likely play fall film fests with Telluride mentioned alongside Venice and Toronto.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
I had Green's Our Brand is Crisis as a possible fest selection back in 2015.
Good Tuesday everyone...here's the latest on TFF #43...
DISTRIBUTION: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC
Yesterday I posted the first of this summer's pieces examining film distribution companies that have had serious presence at Telluride over the last decade or so. As such, I began with Sony Pictures Classics which has had the biggest presence averaging around five films each year at the fest for the past 13 years.
With that as our introduction, it seems logical to me to continue our examination of distribs by generally taking them in the order of their general prevalence at the fest over the last dozen years or so which leads to today's combo pack of distribution organizations. I pair Sundance Selects and IFC (Independent Film Channel) as they are partners. They have collectively averaged around three films at Telluride each year which puts them in the second spot among distribs at T-ride. So, let's look at their history at Telluride for these past several years:
Sundance Selects/IFC Films has been at Telluride recently as follows:
2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2015: 45 Years
I, Daniel Blake trailer from YouTube
For 2016 consideration here is what IMDb reports for these distribution partners:
Sundance Selects:
Things to Come
Graduation
The Unknown Girl
I, Daniel Blake
Dancer
From the Land of the Moon
IFC Films
Personal Shopper
Analysis: If you read yesterday's post, you already know that I'm under the impression that Personal Shopper is unlikely. in as far as the Sundance Selects portion of the slates, I'm discounting From the Land of the Moon which was lambasted critically at Cannes and I know zippity-do-dah about Dancer (so...you know...it probably gets in and turns out to be the hit of the fest...). The other four films have a real chance at making the T-ride lineup.
Things to Come has been in my sights since a successful play in Berlin. Mia Hansen Love has also been to Telluride with Goodbye First Love...on the Sundance/IFC list above. You might have noticed that I had it listed as being "close" to the "Ten Bets" list last Friday.
Graduation. Critically well regarded at Cannes and also directed by a previous Telluride participant Cristian Mungiu who was in the SHOW in 2007 with 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days which you also see above as a past Sundance/IFC film.
I, Daniel Blake won the Palme which is enough for me to give it a serious look. And finally...
The Unknown Girl which had a critically subdued reaction at Cannes but its from frequent Telluride players The Dardennes brothers which always makes a film a real threat to make the lineup.
As to IFC's Personal Shopper, if you saw my bit yesterday about Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere "hints", you'll know that it seems that the Olivier Assasyas film is probably not coming to T-ride.
Chances for these Sundance four:
The Unknown Girl 70%
Things to Come 65%
Graduation 50%
I, Daniel Blake 50%
Tomorrow's distributor: The Weinstein Company.
LET THE SUNSHINE IN: AQUARIUS' FIRST TRAILER
Aquarius starring Sonia Braga made a solid impression at Cannes in May. Though it wasn't a winner in terms of prizes (many thought Braga would win Best Actress), it was universally lauded critically with the Reini Urban collective critical response putting it as the #8 film overall from all sections combined with a solid 7.22 average rating.
The film stars Braga as a woman who is the last hold out against a company that has bought all of the property surrounding the apartment in which she lives.
According to The Film Stage, Netflix currently has the U.S. distribution rights for the film which probably bodes well for a Telluride play as Netflix had its first presence at T-ride last year with Beasts of No Nation and Winter on Fire.
I had Aquarius just outside of last week's initial "Ten Bets" list.
The film's first international trailer appeared yesterday in a story from The Film Stage. You can view it and peruse the story here:
Both Kris Tapley at HitFix and Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter took the opportunity this past week to take a look at the awards landscape as we moved past the half way point on the 2014 calendar. As you might expect, both fellows suggest that the bulk of films that are likely to contend are still to come. I have linked both Kris' and Scott's posts here:
Here's the best from Michael's Tellluride Film Blog from this past week...
TEN BETS 2014 #2
Here's your second edition of "Ten Bets" for films that I expect to appear at the 41st Telluride Film Festival. Last weeks list looked like this:
10) Salt of the Earth (Wenders)
9) Winter Sleep (Ceylan)
8) Red Army (Polsky)
7) Coming Home (Yimou)
6) Foxcatcher (Miller)
5) The Roosevelts (Burns)
4) Leviathan (Zvyagintsev)
3) Birdman (Inarritu)
2) Two Days, One Night (Dardennes)
1) Mr. Turner (Leigh)
After a week of tracking any Telluride news/rumors, here's your new "Ten Bets" (also, see the next story below):
10) Coming Home
9) Winter Sleep
8) Red Army
7) The Roosevelts
6) Queen of the Desert
5) Foxcatcher
4) Leviathan
3) Two Days, One Night
2) Mr. Turner
1) Birdman
NEWS FROM WELLS
"Birdman" trailer via YouTube
Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere posted a Telluride piece on Wednesday. He claims that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's "Birdman" is a Telluride lock...which I have suspected for over a year. Also a lock, according to Wells: Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" which has also been anticipated here, as long as it was finished. Wells also says that Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" and David Fincher's "Gone Girl" are locked for the New York Fest and necessarily pre-empted for T-ride.
The really interesting tidbit is the possibility of a Telluride presentation of Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar". Up until last year, I would have thought this unlikely in the extreme but with the success of Telluride landing Alfonso Cuaron's "Gravity" last year...I could believe this. I'm not there yet...but I don't rule it out either.
Wells also has a couple of comments about the Toronto Film Fests ultimatum vis-a-vis Telluride and you can find the entire piece here:
Well, you know, if you read this space with any regularity, I have been following, rather obsessively, the progress of William H. Macy's Sundance hit "Rudderless". I've been privy to a lot of the backstage machinations on the film for more than five years and it's with great pleasure that I can pass on this news. "Rudderless" will be released in the U.S. on Oct. 17th. That info comes via a tweet from Macy himself who said yesterday:
"Gentle Folk, RUDDERLESS opens in theaters Oct 17th. Good lord I'm jacked up about this movie. More later. Macy"
Though I haven't seen this tidbit anywhere in the media...I'm pretty sure that Macy's got his dates right. No news as to how wide a release the Oct. 17th date will be as yet so I'll keep an eye out on that. So, I suppose that makes this an "exclusive". Or, at any rate, an exclusive for those of us who follow Macy on Twitter.
LOOKING AT THE SONY PICTURES CLASSICS SLATE
No distributor has historically had a stronger presence at the Telluride Film Festival than Sony Pictures Classics. Fest hondos usually tell people that they program between 24 and 30 feature films each year. For the last ten years, SPC has averaged 4.6 films per festival...or somewhere in the neighborhood of 18% of the T-ride slate each year comes from the SPC stable. Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 11 years : 2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune. 2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour 2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation 2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job 2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education 2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten 2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters 2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian 2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child 2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes 2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam
Here are SPC's films listed by IMDb as of today:
"Leviathan"
"Jimmy's Hall"
"The Salt of the Earth"
"Foxcatcher"
"Wild Tales"
"Saint Laurent"
"Coming Home"
"Red Army"
"Mr. Turner"
"Aloft"
Six of these films were listed on last week's first "Ten Bets" list. (Those six are: "Leviathan", "The Salt of the Earth", "Foxcatcher", "Coming Home", "Red Army" and "Mr. Turner"). At this point the other four: "Jimmy's Hall", "Wild Tales", "Saint Laurent" and "Aloft" are less likely to my way of thinking, but none of these ten are impossible for TFF.
SUNDANCE SELECTS TELLURIDE POSSIBLES
Only a player in distribution for just a few years, Sundance Selects has been present at the Telluride Film Festival for the last four fests at various levels of involvement. 2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Tabloid 2011: The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love and Into the Abyss 2012: The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
So you can expect one or possibly two of their films to make the grade Labor Day weekend. Currently Sundance Selects has two Cannes films that could be programmed at Telluride: Mathieu Amalric's "The Blue Room" and the almost 100% lock that is the Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night" with Marion Cotillard.
I'm at the point, and have been for a long time, that "Two Days" is a virtual TFF #41 certainty. Amalric's "Blue Room" is a "could be" that I'd estimate at a 30% chance of making the T-ride program.
IFC FILMS AND TFF #41
IFC films has been a fairly substantial presence at Telluride over the past several years. The firms highlight year probably was 2008 (the writer's strike year) when it was represented by 5 films. IFC Films sometimes partners with Sundance Selects. Here's the film record for IFC Films at Telluride for the past ten years: 2003: Touching the Void, Intermission 2004: Nobody Knows 2005: Three Times 2006: Deep Water, Indigenes 2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City 2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird 2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere 2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos 2011: Into the Abyss, Pina 2012: Frances Ha 2013: No Show IFC Films averages 2.3 films per year at the Telluride Film Festival over the last decade. So...what's in the IFC pipeline that has Telluride implications? The one that seems most likely is Olivier Assayas' "Clouds of Sils Maria" which also played Cannes. After that there is also "Bird People", "The Salvation" and "Welcome to New York". It seems to me that "The Salvation" might be the next most likely film but any of these four or none of them could make the T-ride lineup.
THE PLAYLIST SEEKS FALL FEST CLARITY
IndieWire blog The Playlist posted "The Fall Festival 50: Our Wish list for the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals" yesterday and there is a LOT to digest from the lengthy list of films (which actually edges over the 50 mark when "other possibilities" are included. The Playlist specifically mentions Telluride in connection with six films: "Unbroken", "While We're Young", "Men, Women and Children", "99 Homes", "True Story" and "Kill the Messenger". Of that list, I'd agree on the Noah Baumbach "While We're Young". All of the others have "issues" that may work against their inclusion. I would love to see "Unbroken" make the trip to the San Juans though. Four films that I think have some Telluride potential are listed in the article without any specific guess as to where they might end up: "Carol", "Suite Francais", "A Most Violent Year" and "Queen of the Desert"...though, if "Queen" is ready and doesn't play Telluride, I'll be stunned. The post also suggests that Jon Stewart's "Rosewater" seems to be lock for Toronto and unlikely for Telluride. It also says "The Imitation Game" is likely for TIFF and though they don't specifically rule out Telluride, an early slot for the Benedict Cumberbatch starrer at TIFF would close the door. Finally, the Playlist Staff suggests that both Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" and Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" are probably headed to Venice which doesn't preclude a Telluride play. As regular readers of this space know, I'm high on "Birdman's" chances and less bullish on "Vice". The whole Playlist post is here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-fall-festival-50-our-wishlist-for-the-venice-telluride-and-toronto-film-festivals-20140630 FOXCATCHER POSTER FEATURES TATUM
I have made several mentions of Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" starring Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard. I've even suggested that we could have a Cotillard "Twofer" along with "Two Days, One Night". But Fassbender could be a "Twofer" on his own as well. Fassbender stars in "Slow West" along with Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road). Anne Thompson posted a look at the new film and a hint at the outset that it's a likely going to show at either Telluride or Toronto. Look at Anne's story here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/first-look-michael-fassbender-in-frontier-western-slow-west-20140629 Anne points out in the article that the film is produced by the team that was behind "A King's Speech", "Shame" and "Tracks". It's got both See Saw films and Film4 behind it and both have had a good past relationship with Telluride. All this leads me to believe that I need to really think about "Slow West" as a very real possibility. TEASERS AND TRAILERS Two new view of films that might be in the mix for Telluride. First, a new trailer for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher". I just get more excited every time I see something new about the film. Here's the trailer via YouTube:
Meanwhile, I'm warming to the idea that the latest Bill Murray flick could be in the T-ride mix. "St. Vincent" stars Murray in full irresponsibility mode as an adult that develops a relationship with an adolescent. It's in The Weinstein Company wheelhouse and could conceivably be a better shot at Oscar consideration than "Hyde Park on Hudson". Additionally, I got the feeling that Murray really enjoyed his Telluride visit with "Hyde Park" two years ago. Here's that trailer also from YouTube:
And, again, an accompanying story from The Dissolve:
Alex Billington of FirstShowing.net reports that Drafthouse Films has acquired U.S. distribution for "The Tribe". The film is told completely with sign language and without subtitles and was quite the buzz producer at Cannes in May.
Drafthouse was represented at Telluride in 2012 with Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Act of Killing"...By the way, I fully expect Oppenhiemer's sequel to screen at TFF #41, "The Look of Silence".
Here's the link to the Billington post that includes a slightly NSFW trailer:
Good Wednesday Everyone. I'm writing this morning from Niagara Falls, NY. Saw the falls yesterday...fantastic. Headed to Vermont this morning in route to the Berkshires for a weekend of art sales there.
SUNDANCE SELECTS TELLURIDE POSSIBLES
Only a player in distribution for just a few years, Sundance Selects has been present at the Telluride Film Festival for the last four fests at various levels of involvement.
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Tabloid
2011: The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love and Into the Abyss
2012: The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
So you can expect one or possibly two of their films to make the grade Labor Day weekend. Currently Sundance Selects has two Cannes films that could be programmed at Telluride: Mathieu Amalric's "The Blue Room" and the almost 100% lock that is the Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night" with Marion Cotillard.
I'm at the point, and have been for a long time, that "Two Days" is a virtual TFF #41 certainty. Amalric's "Blue Room" is a "could be" that I'd estimate at a 30% chance of making the T-ride program.
SCORSESE'S TFF ENTRY?
Photo via Variety
Martin Scorsese has had several projects over the years at Telluride. Of late, he's had his documentary work (that which he's produced) programmed: "George Harrison: Living in the Material World" in 2011. Variety reported about his latest project "The 50 Year Argument" which focuses on The New York Review of Books. The doc is scheduled for an October debut on HBO so I can certainly see it making the grade with a Telluride run. Take a look at the Variety story here:
I have made several mentions of Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" starring Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard. I've even suggested that we could have a Cotillard "Twofer" along with "Two Days, One Night". But Fassbender could be a "Twofer" on his own as well. Fassbender stars in "Slow West" along with Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road). Anne Thompson posted a look at the new film and a hint at the outset that it's a likely going to show at either Telluride or Toronto. Look at Anne's story here:
Anne points out in the article that the film is produced by the team that was behind "A King's Speech", "Shame" and "Tracks". It's got both See Saw films and Film4 behind it and both have had a good past relationship with Telluride. All this leads me to believe that I need to really think about "Slow West" as a very real possibility.
RIP PAUL MAZURSKY
Writer-Director and actor Paul Mazusky died yesterday. He was 84. He directed "An Unmarried Woman", "Harry and Tonto" and "Bob and Carol and Ted and Alice" among others. He earned five Oscar nominations over his career. I've included a Mazursky remembrance from HitFix:
Good Saturday to everyone. Here's a look at the best material I posted this past week on MTFB:
BEST OF THE WEEK
TEN BETS #1
For the third straight year here is the first stab at guessing ten films that will play at Telluride this year.
Last year's initial "Ten Bets" had 5 films that actually made the grade: "Amour", "Rust and Bone", "No", "Midnight's Children" and "Hyde Park on Hudson". The 2011 list was actually much better with 8 of that initial list showing at the SHOW: "The Descendants:, "The Artist", "The Kid with a Bike", "Le Havre", Restored : "A Trip to the Moon", "Into the Abyss", "We Have to Talk About Kevin" and "Shame".
So, with hope that I can return to my 2011 form, here are "Ten Bets":
1) "Nebraska": Alexander Payne's road dramedy with Bruce Dern and Will Forte. Payne's "Descendants" was the #1 bet to start 2011's "Ten Bets" and his follow up starts in the same position for 2013.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1821549/?ref_=sr_1
2) "The Past": My bet is that Asghar Farhadi (and SPC) return to Telluride with this relationship drama follow-up to his brilliant "A Separation". Berenice Bejo stars...and could be a Best Actress contender. Perhaps she'll come to T-ride as her husband Michel Hazanavicius did with "The Artist" 2 years ago.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2404461/?ref_=sr_1
4) "Aguirre: The Wrath of God": Friend of the blog Christopher Schiller mentioned this as a possibility and it makes too much sense. The new restoration of the 1972 film played at Cannes and, of course, was directed by Telluride legend Werner Herzog. Additionally, Herzog will have the new 650 seat theater (hockey pavilion converted to cinema) named in his honor as part of this year's 40th wing ding. What do you bet that "The Zog" (my name for the new theater) opens with this as its first film? Sounds about right to me.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068182/?ref_=sr_1
5) "The Immigrant": James Gray directs and co-wrote the script. It stars Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Renner and Joaquin Phoenix. TFF #39 attendees saw a few minutes of this last year as part of the tribute to Cotillard with Mr. Gray in attendance. My bet is that they had this year's fest slot settled on at that point. Further evidence? Gray's presence at Telluride's Hollywood soiree a few weeks back.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1951181/?ref_=sr_1
7) "The Invisible Woman": Earlier this week as I was analyzing Sony Pictures Classics slate of potential films I mentioned Ralph Fiennes "The Invisible Women" was iffy since its announced release date is Feb. 2014 in Britain. My speculation was that seemed like a long time after TFF...but I did conclude by saying that I hadn't completely ruled it out. Good for me as you will see below. For this spot in the blog...let's just say, the film that focuses on Charles Dickens and his secret lover looks likely now
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1700845/?ref_=sr_1
8) "Labor Day": I'm betting that Jason Reitman returns. After "Juno" and "Up in the Air" both played here, Reitman's last film "Young Adult" did not. I'm guessing that Reitman returns to the San Juans with this latest film that stars Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1967545/?ref_=sr_1
9) "12 Years a Slave": I admit, my guess here is based purely on the fact that Steve McQueen's previous efforts, "Hunger" and "Shame" both appeared at Telluride. It's also in the Fox Searchlight wheelhouse. A lot of smart people think it will play Venice and I haven't found anyone, besides myself, who has it going to Telluride. But remember, "Shame" played both Venice and T-ride. So put it at #8 and hope.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2024544/
10) "Like Father, Like Son": Well received at Cannes and under the Sundance Selects umbrella. The film focuses on the choice one man must make when it is discovered that his son was accidentally switched at birth and that another boy is actually his own.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2331143/?ref_=ttco_co_tt
On the edge: Sundance Selects other Cannes films including Palme d'Or winner "Blue is the Warmest Color", "The Selfish Giant" and "Young and Beautiful". SPC's "Only Lovers Left Alive", "The Lunchbox" and "For No Good Reason". Bertrand Tavernier's new film "Quai d'Orsay", Errol Morris's Donald Rumsfeld documentary "The Unkonwn Known". TWC's "One Chance", "Philomena" and "Salinger". Also, don't forget "Mad Men" creator Matthew Weiner's film directing debut "You Are Here".
Let's see how it plays out over the next couple of months.
FOX SEARCHLIGHT AT TELLURIDE
Fox Searchlight has a hit and miss history with the Telluride Film Festival over the past decade. It's been a substantial player some years and has been absent in others. Here's the FS presence at T-ride for the past ten years:
2003:
2004: Kinsey
2005: Bee Season
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake
2007: Juno, The Savages
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009:
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Millions
2011: Shame, The Descendants
2012:
13 films in ten years. The highwater mark coming in 2010 with 4 films on the SHOW list but '03, '09 and '12 with no films at all. Looking at their current lineup of films purportedly ready:
"12 Years a Slave"
"Black Nativity"
and "Baggage Claim"
Of them, only "12 Years" seems like a solid Telluride pick what with director Steve McQueen's past with the festival. I think "Baggage Claim" is really unlikely. "Black Nativity" is really an intriguing possibility. It's described as a "contemporary adaptation of Langston Hughes celebrated play" and is adapted and directed by Kasi Lemmons whose previous directing crdits include "Talk to Me", "The Caveman's Valentine" and "Eve's Bayou". I could see this being on the TFF list. Notice also, that Fox Searchlight hasn't gone two straight years without some presence at the SHOW.
No distributor has historically had a stronger presence at the Telluride Film Festival than Sony Pictures Classics. Fest hondos usually tell people that they program between 24 and 30 feature films each year. For the last ten years, SPC has averaged 4.6 films per festival...or somewhere in the neighborhood of 18% of the T-ride slate each year comes from the SPC stable.
Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last decade:
2012:The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam
So we can look at this as a template and know that unless something has drastically changed, SPC will be at TFF #40 and likely in a big way. So what is in the SPC house right now?
According to IMDb, this is the 2013 (and slightly beyond) list of SPC films:
The Invisible Woman
Turner
The Raid 2
Blue Jasmine
For No Good Reason
Only Lovers Left Alive
The Lunchbox
The Past
I'm So Excited
Before Midnight
Austenland
Kill Your Darlings
The Patience Stone
First, eliminate the films already in release: "Before Midnight",
Next, films that have played U.S. fests already or have a set release date prior to Telluride: "The Patience Stone", "Kill Your Darlings", "Austenland", "I'm So Excited",and "Blue Jasmine".
That leaves 7 films. Mike Leigh's "Turner" is reportedly still filming and I don't think "The Raid 2" is likely Telluride fare.
That leaves us with 5 films:
Ralph Fiennes' "The Invisible Woman"
Asghar Farhadi's Cannes competition Best Actress winning (Berenice Bejo) "The Past".
Jim Jarmusch's Tilda Swinton starring "Only Lovers Left Alive"...also a Cannes film.
The Ralph Steadman documentary "For No Good Reason" and
Recent SPC acquisition "The Lunchbox".
I think they could all play at Telluride. At this point, I'd be surprised if "The Past" WASN'T there and Friday, The London Daily Mail/Mail Online let slip that "The Invisible Woman" would be playing Telluride.
I have some reservations about "Only Lovers" and "For No Good Reason". I actually feel pretty confident about "The Lunchbox".
"Only Lovers" has some other things going for it to suggest that it's a potential Telluride selection...it was a Cannes film, Tilda Swinton stars and is said to have really enjoyed her tribute year in 2011. Reportedly she'd like to come back. Director/writer Jim Jarmusch has been a T-ride player before...albeit a long time ago ("Stranger Than Paradise" in 1984 and "Mystery Train" in 1989). All of that suggests that I should be putting it on the "Ten Bets" list Friday...but it's about vampires...which I find a little strange for Telluride #40. Still, it has a lot going for it.
My reluctance concerning "For No Good Reason" stems from no other Telluride connection.
"The Lunchbox" seems right in a T-ride sweet spot. Indian, Cannes (Critic's week section) and its description of a lunchbox delivery gone awry and the consequences that spring from that sound Telluride-friendly as well.
T-ride chances for these four?
"The Invisible Women" 95%
"The Past" 90%
"The Lunchbox" 80%
"For No Good Reason" 50%
"Only Lovers Left Alive" 50%
SUNDANCE SELECTS AND TELLURIDE
Only a player in distribution for just a few years, Sundance Selects has been present at the Telluride Film Festival for the last three fests at various levels of involvement.
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Tabloid
2011: The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love and Into the Abyss
2012: The Central Park Five
At this point, the possible Sundance Selects offerings amount to 5 films that played at Cannes:
Palme d'Or winner "Blue is the Warmest Color", Jury Prize winner "Like Father, Like Son", Francois Ozon's "Young and Beautiful", Clio Bernard's "The Selfish Giant" and Roman Polanski's "Venus in Fur".
My feeling is that "Like Father..." and "The Selfish Giant" might be the more likely T-ride choices...though "Blue" and "Young and Beautiful" seem very possible as well.
Polanski's film seems like the least likely of the five from Cannes.
Sundance Selects also has a documentary entitled "The Summit" which has played in 2 film fests in England and Ireland...that could be a possibility.
Chances:
"Like Father, Like Son" 70%
"The Selfish Giant" 70%
"Blue is the Warmest Color" 60%
"Young and Beautiful" 50%
"Venus in Fur" 20%
""The Summit" 20%
IFC FILMS AND TELLURIDE
IFC films has been a fairly substantial presence at Telluride over the past several years. The firms highlight year probably was 2008 (the writer's strike year) when it was represented by 5 films. IFC Films sometimes partners with Sundance Selects.
Here's the film record for IFC Films at Telluride for the past ten years:
2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina
2012: Frances Ha
IFC Films averages 2.3 films per year at the Telluride Film Festival over the last decade. So what do they have in the pipeline that looks Telluride-y?
IMDb lists the following as IFC Films distribution vehicles that haven't or will not have opened or played at a North American film festival:
Cannes entry "Young and Beautiful" (with Sundance Selects)
Mountain climbing documentary "The Summit" (also with Sundance Selects)
"The Face of Love" starring Robin Williams and Ed Harris
Three...that's all...three.
My money's on "Young and Beautiful" at this point. I rated it's chances yesterday at 50%...I'm bumping that up to 60% today. "The Summit" stays at 20% and "Face of Love"...I'm putting at 10%.
WEINSTEIN'S AT TELLURIDE
Harvey Weinstein and his brother Bob have had a fairly common presence at the Telluride Film Festival over the years. Their current incarnation is as The Weinstein Company. Previously they were Miramax. Tracking both companies as distributors at Telluride for the past decade shows us that they've been a part of The SHOW for a good long while. Here's their Telluride slate as Miramax or The Weinstein Company since 2005:
2003: The Barbarian Invasions, Best of Youth, I'm Not Scared
2004:
2005:
2006: Venus
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, My Enemy's Enemy, I'm Not There
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky
2009: The Road
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist, Butter
2012: The Sapphires (also was represented during the Marion Cotillard tribute by James Gray and 5 min. of The Immigrant)
So over 10 years...13 films. 1.3 per year and TWC has been repped at TFF consistently each year since 2006. So expect one or two TWC films on the TFF #40 slate. What's possible?
According to IMDb this is what TWC has in its wheelhouse for the fall (that, as usual, hasn't already appeared in the U.S. or won't open here until after The SHOW):
You can probably discount "Leo the Lion" "The Trick or Treaters" and "Man of Tai Chi".
"The Immigrant"
"August: Osage County"
"Snowpiercer"
"Salinger"
"The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet"
"One Chance"
"Philomena"
"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
"Grace of Monaco"
So there are probably these 9 that are legit possibles. If you've read the blog, you already know that I'm high on "The Immigrant" being at T-ride in its full form. If that's true and TWC's past performance (particularly the last 7 years) we might see one other film from the TWC shingle, two at most.
So...which?
I think your best shots are: "Salinger", "One Chance" and "Philomena" with "Spivet" as an outside shot.
"August", "Mandela" and "Grace" are probably off the table. I'd not be surprised that "August" doesn't do ANY festival in the fall. Maybe New York.
My guess is that "Grace" and "Mandela" will do some combination of Toronto and NY and that "Snowpiercer" is Toronto all he way.
I don't have a lot of feel that Ridley Scott's drama starring Brad Pitt and Michael Fassbender has a realistic shot at being in the Telluride field. But I'd like it to be (note: some of things that I haven't thought had a prayer might actually be a part of the 40th festivities...rumors...whispers...can't say anything).
Nonetheless, a teaser trailer dropped for the eagerly anticipated film yesterday. Check it and the attached stories here:
Yesterday was the trailer for Ridley Scott's "The Counselor". Today, from The Playlist, a look at some stills from the film. The post also includes a segment of the screenplay by Cormac McCarthy.
No sooner had I started a tiny bit of speculation that Terry Gilliam's "The Zero Theorem" had an outside shot at making it to Telluride than some footage shows up on the interweb.
Rope of Silicon, The Playlist and Hit Fix all have stories but you won't be surprised to learn that the "trailer" has been taken down at all three websites.
I looked at it last night and it is very interesting, fun and Gilliam-esque. Many have already commented that it seems to be thematically in the "Brazil" mode.
Gilliam has been a past Telluride participant...so, if it's ready...maybe this could be in the San Juan's in 9 weeks or so.
Here are the links to the previously referenced stories:
It's no secret that I'm a Coen Brothers fan. It's no secret that I've been hot for their new film "Inside Llewyn Davis" since we found out about it. It inspired some whimsy here a few months ago about turning all of the Coen Brothers canon of films into musicals.
And I'd love for ILD to be among the films that make the SHOW list...but that's soooo unlikely. No Coen history with TFF...which I find hard to believe. For a long time, I was convinced that "Blood Simple" had played The SHOW back in '84...and I was wrong.
Nevertheless, HitFix posted yesterday the news of the track list and artists on the "Inside Llewyn Davis" soundtrack. It's cool. No surprises that Oscar Issac is on it. No real surprise that co-stars Justin Timberlake and Carey Mulligan are on it. A little surprise that Mulligan's hubby Marcus Mumford is on it....again, cool.
Also cool, the tune "The Last Thing on My Mind" appears on the soundtrack. It was written by Tom Paxton, who I got to meet last fall at the Tumbleweed Festival in Garden City, KS. Feels like I can almost touch the actual record!
Oh...were Llewyn to be in T-ride...I might actually have to "I'm not worthy" the Coen Brothers on Colorado Ave. But the chances are virtually non-existent. Just gonna have to make do with the soundtrack download.
Have a good weekend.
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