Last Look at Distributors: Specialty Houses / Bugonia Boogies to Telluride? / Odds and Ends: Anemone, Nouvelle Vague, Left-Handed Girl, Young Mother's Home

LAST LOOK AT DISTRIBUTORS: SPECIALTY HOUSES

Our run through the most common film distribution firms repped at Telluride over the last nine years comes to a conclusion today with a glance at three specialty firms that have often landed a film or films at Telluride: Janus Films, Kino Lorber and a new-ish outfit called 1-2 Special.

But first a re-cap of what we've seen over the past several weeks in regards to the distributors covered so far and the status of the films we included in the assessment for each:

Netflix:

The Ballad of a Small Player -We think headed to Telluride

Jay Kelly- We think headed to Telluride after Venice.

Frankenstein - No Telluride

Left-Handed Girl -Unknown

Nouvelle Vague -We think headed to Telluride

Sony Pictures Classics:

Blue Moon -Unknown (but I like its chances)

The President's Cake-Unknown

Eleanor the Great -No Telluride

A Private Life-No Telluride

A Magnificent Life-Unknown

Unidentified-Unknown

Neon:

It Was Just an Accident-We think headed to Telluride

Sentimental Value-We think headed to Telluride

The Secret Agent-We think headed to Telluride

Sirat-No Telluride

Orwell 2+2=5-Unknown

Alpha-Unknown

A24:

Pillion-Unknown

Marty Supreme-No Telluride...no fests at all as far as we can tell

The Smashing Machine-No Telluride

Eternity-No Telluride

Searchlight:

Rental Family-No Telluride

Is This Thing On?-No Telluride

In the Blink of an Eye-Unknown

Amazon-MGM:

After the Hunt-No Telluride

Preparation for the Next Life-No Telluride-it opens on Sept. 5-so...unlikely.

The Map that Leads to You-No Telluride

Focus Features:

Hamnet-We think headed to Telluride

Bugonia-We feel it's likely headed to Telluride after Venice

The History of Sound-We think headed to Telluride

Anemone-Unlikely for Telluride

Pressure-Unknown

Song Sung Blue-Noop

Mubi:

My Father's Shadow-Unknown

Die, My Love-Unknown

The Mastermind-Unknown

La Grazia- Unknown but opening Venice means it would have time to make it to Telluride.

The other films that I'm fairly confident about are Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which is being distributed by 20th Century and Tuner which, as far as I can tell doesn't have a U.S. distributor at present.

Now to the specialty distributors (individuals that have attended TFF in the past are designated with *):

JANUS FILMS

The Love That Remains.  Dir: Hylnur Palmason*  Stars: Ingvar Sigurdsson, Sverrir Gudnason.  Played Cannes out of competition.  Had a 7.68 cumulative rating (out of 10) on Cannes-ratings.org.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Captures a year in the life of a family as the parents navigate their separation. Through intimate vignettes and strange occurrences, the film explores the complexities of family, love, and the impact of shared memories.

Two Prosecutors. Dir. Sergey Loznitsa.  Stars: Alexander Kuznetsov, Anatoliy Beliy.  Played at Cannes in the Plame competition category and won the French Calais Prize.  Had a 6.21 cumulative critical rating.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

1937: When a prisoner's letter escapes destruction, idealistic prosecutor Kornev uncovers NKVD corruption. His pursuit of justice in Stalin's USSR becomes a dangerous journey into the heart of a system devouring its own.

Resurrection.  Dir. Bi Gan.  Stars: Jackson Yee, Shu Qi.  Played Cannes in the Plame competition category.  Bi Gan was awarded a "Special Prize".  The film had a stellar 7.44 average critic rating.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

A woman's consciousness falls into an eternal time zone during a surgical procedure. Trapped in many dreams, she finds the corpse of an android and tries to wake him up by telling endless stories.

Magellan.  Dir. Lav Diaz.  Stars: Gael García Bernal*, Ângela Azevedo.  Played out of competition at Cannes.  Had a solid 7.05 average critical rating.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description: 

A portrayal of Ferdinand Magellan and Beatriz Barbosa's 1517 marriage in Seville, focusing on their brief time together before his departure on the Spanish crown's expedition.

Any or all of these films might make the TFF #52 lineup.  Last year Janus had two films make the TFF #51 lineup: All We Imagine as Light and Misericordia.  I'm expecting them to back and it seems, at least at the moment, the most likely suspects are The Love That Remains and Magellan.  For Magellan it's the presence of Gael Garcia Bernal, A T-ride regular.

KINO LORBER

Amrum.  Dir. Fatih Akin.  Stars: Diane Kruger, Matthias Schweighöfer.  Played out of competition at Cannes and received a middling 6.37 critics average rating.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Amrum Island, Spring 1945. In the final days of the war, 12-year-old Nanning braves the treacherous sea to hunt seals, goes fishing at night, and works the nearby farm to help his mother feed the family. Despite the hardship, life on the beautiful, windswept island almost feels like paradise. But when peace finally comes, it reveals a deeper threat: the enemy is far closer than he imagined. 

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk.  Dir. Sepideh Farsi. Documentary.  Played as part of the ACID program at Cannes.  Critical average: 8.31.  This average was a consensus of 89 critics and was the highest average of any film playing any section at Cannes this year.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description: 

A filmmaker connects with a Palestinian woman in Gaza who documents life under bombardment. Their 200+ days of digital exchanges, the meaning shifts after Fatem's death in an Israeli attack on 16/ April 2025.

This two films seem the only real Kino Lorber possibilities for TFF #52.  I can actually see both making the lineup.  KL had Riefenstahl at Telluride last year.

1-2 SPECIAL

Urchin.  Dir. Harris Dickinson. Stars: Frank Dillane, Diane Axford.  Played Cannes in Un Certain Regard.  Frank Dillane was named Best Actor for that section.  Critical average 7.16.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Mike, a homeless person in London is struggling to break free from a cycle of self-destruction while trying to turn his life around.

Mirrors #3.  Dir. Christian Petzold.  Stars: Paula Beer, Phillip Froissant.  Played in the Filmmakers Fortnight section at Cannes.  Critical average: 7.00.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

After a car crash kills her boyfriend, piano student Laura is taken in by Betty, who witnessed the accident. Living with Betty's family brings comfort, but Laura starts questioning their intentions as time passes.

Dracula.  Dir. Radu Jude.  Stars: Serban Pavlu, Ilinca Manolache.  Played the Lorcano Film Fest.  release date: TBD. IMDb description:

A Dracula film made in Transylvania. What does it contain? A vampire hunt. Zombies and Dracula crashing a strike. A science-fiction story about Vlad the Impaler coming back. An adaptation of the first Romanian vampires novella. A love story. A montage film reusing a classic vampire film. A vulgar folktale. A.I. generated kitsch stories. And many delights in a film dealing with this cinema myth.

Kontinental '25.  Dir. Radu Jude. Stars: Eszter Tompa,  Ilinca Manolache.  Played the Berlin Fest where it won Best Screenplay and had a 7.00 critical average.  Release date: TBD. IMDb description:

In the capital of Transylvania, Cluj-Napoca, Orsolya serves as a bailiff. She has to evict a homeless guy from a cellar one day, which has disastrous results and sets off a moral problem that Orsolya must try to resolve.

1-2 Special is new, new new so whether it gains any traction vis-a-vis a slot at Telluride is up in the air.  Urchin and Mirrors #3  made enough of a splash at Cannes to make me believe that one of those and maybe both could sneak into the TFF #52 lineup.

Chances for the Janus, Kino Lorber, 1-2 Special films for a TFF screening:

The Love That Remains 65%

Magellan 50%

Amrum 50%

Urchin 50%

Mirrors #3 45%

Resurrection 40%

Two Prosecutors 40%

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk 40%

Kontinental '25 25%

Dracula 25%

BUGONIA BOOGIES TO TELLURIDE?

Well, we don't know that but...

World of Reel posted a purported leak of some of the Venice schedule.  That derived from an outfit called Objective Festival (French it would appear).  From that source a couple of things are interesting.

First, that website flat out claims that it's getting the info from Venice head Alberto Barbera.  Here's the "schedule" that they dropped:

August 27 : La Grazia

August 28 : Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Orphan

August 29 : After the Hunt, No Other Choice

August 30 : Frankenstein

August 31 : Father, Mother, Sister, Brother, The Wizard of the Kremlin

September 1 : The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee

September 2 : A House of Dynamite, Dead Man's Wire

September 3 : In the Hand of Dante, Duse, The Voice of Hind Rajab

September 4 : Scarlet

September 6 : Dog 51

What this means, if true, is that Bugonia, Jay Kelly and Orphan would screen early enough to make the trip from Italy to Colorado possible.  Is that a confirmation for TFF #52 for all three films?  No.  But it means we can't write them off either.  As to Bugonia, see the "Odds and Ends" below from Variety's Clayton Davis.

We were already fairly sure about Jay Kelly but this does move Bugonia and Orphan up on the possibilities list.

It further seems to confirm that we will not be seeing a number of films we already thought were not going to be at Telluride.  Of particular note were some films like The Wizard of the Kremlin and In the Hand of Dante won't be Telluride bound.

The complete story is linked here.

ODDS AND ENDS

***ANEMONE...PROBABLY NOT...

Clayton Davis at Variety writing about the nature and value of film festivals last Friday says:

"Focus Features, overflowing with awards prospects, will juggle Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” at Venice and Telluride, while debuting Daniel Day-Lewis’ acting comeback drama “Anemone” later in the year. Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” also from Focus, is being released on Christmas, but will likely bypass the festival circuit."

Takeaways:  Hamnet...yes. Bugonia...yes.  Anemone and Song Sung Blue...nope.

***NOUVELLE VAGUE HAS A RELEASE DATE

Per The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg:

"Nouvelle Vague, Richard Linklater’s loving homage to Jean Luc-Godard’s 1960 film Breathless and the French New Wave, which received a 10-minute standing ovation and rave reviews following its world premiere at May’s Cannes Film Festival, will be released in American theaters on Oct. 31 and play on big screens for two weeks before dropping on Netflix on Nov. 14"

The full THR story is here.

***LEFT-HANDED GIRL HAS A DATE

From Kate Erbland at Indiewire:

"Netflix picked up the film, which debuted in Cannes’ Critics’ Week section, at the festival, and IndieWire can today announce that the streamer will bolster the film with both a theatrical release (on Friday, November 14) and a streaming release on its platform (on Friday, November 28)."

The complete story from IndieWire is here.

 

***U.K. TRAILER FOR THE DARDENNES' YOUNG MOTHERS' HOME

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Kino Lorber Acquisition Could Be a TFF Player / Cannes Has a New Palme / Initial Views of Holy Spider

KINO LORBER ACQUISITION COULD BE A TFF PLAYER

The Hollywood Reporter let us know on Friday that Kino Lorber had acquired the North American rights to Maggie Peren's The Forger.  The film was selection of the Berlin International Film Festival.  According to IDMb The Forger is:

"The true story of Cioma Schönhaus, a Jewish man who, during the Second World War, repeatedly escaped the Gestapo thanks to his ability to forge passports. But his other talent was perhaps even rarer: the gift for happiness."

The Kino Lorber buy and the film's Berlin lineage suggests at least some possibility that it could play at Telluride this Labor Day.

Kino Lorber has frequently landed films in the TFF lineup.  Some examples:

2020: (announced) Never Gonna Snow Again, There Is No Evil and Truman & Tennessee

2019: Beanpole

2017: Filmworker

2016: Fire at Sea

2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi

The trailer for the film is linked here from YouTube:

THR says the film will be released later in 2022.

The complete THR story is linked here.

CANNES HAS A NEW PALME

I mean it literally.  The Cannes Fest has a new design for the physical award that will be handed out at the end of the month.  Awards Watch's Erik Anderson was who first drew my attention to that news with a Tweet this past Saturday.

Here's the new look Palme d'Or:

The Hollywood Reporter's Chris Gardner provided the details with this story that was posted Friday.

INITIAL VIEWS OF HOLY SPIDER

The Playlist provided some early stills from Ali Abbasi's Holy Spider.  The film is playing Cannes in the Main Competition section.  Abbasi previously played Cannes in 2018in the Un Certain Regard section with Border which then made the trip to Telluride later that September.  That opens the door to some serious speculation that this new film might also be a candidate for TFF #49.

The film's description per IMDb:

"In Holy Spider, we follow family man Saeed as he embarks on his own religious quest - to "cleanse" the holy Iranian city of Mashhad of immoral and corrupt street prostitutes. After murdering several women, he grows ever more desperate about the lack of public interest in his divine mission."

Here's a taste from the images at The Playlist:

See the complete set of pics and the full post from The Playlist here.

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Indiewire Reveals? / Ten Bets #3 / Oscar Ramblings / The Last Distribs

INDIEWIRE REVEALS?

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know".  Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.

Here's the Thompson rundown:

The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).


The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:

Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock

 I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.

The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul.  That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own.  If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.

The complete article is linked here.


TEN BETS #3

Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above.  But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:


10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite


Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note:  this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020.  That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week.  I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today.  So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:


10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite

Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.

Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.


OSCAR RAMBLINGS

I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April.  Here me out...

What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021?  I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date.   I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel.  I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.

So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?

Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above:  Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".

What films then do become players?  Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.

Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.

Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list:  Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May).  Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated.  Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).

Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).

Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.

And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).

I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021.  Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.

So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold.


1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward

And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.


The complete and unaltered list of Clayton's predictions at Awards Circuit predictions are linked here.



THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER

I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.

COHEN MEDIA GROUP

Cohen's TFF History:

2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack

Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:

Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%

KINO LORBER

KL's TFF History:

2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain

Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:

There Is No Evil 50%


SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

The Sundance/IFC TFF History:

2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield

2015: 45 Years

2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2005: Three Times

Possible TFF #47 selection and its chances:

Undine 45%

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No Bluegrass in 2020 / Rasoulof's There Is No Evil Lands at Kino Lorber / Cannes Locked-In?

NO BLUEGRASS IN 2020

As we keep track of major events that might affect TFF #47 or could act as harbingers for what might be to come, I noted that organizers for Telluride's Bluegrass Festival (mentioned here back on Apr. 2nd) have decided to cancel the 2020 edition.

Bluegrass reportedly is the most attended of T-ride's summer fests and had approached the Telluride Town Council about moving its dates from its originally scheduled June 18-21 to Aug. 27-30.  The council did not make any decision regarding Bluegrass at that time.

Several locals reportedly had expressed the difficulty that the new date would have caused as it would have been a matter of a week prior to TFF #47.

Bluegrass organizer Craig Ferguson was quoted this week in The Telluride Daily Planet about the near inevitability of the decision:

“Oh, I think all of us have known for quite awhile (that Bluegrass would be canceled), we just gave ourselves ample opportunity to talk each other out of it and no one could.  I think we learned that Bluegrass doesn’t really get postponed from solstice, then it becomes something else.  When gatherings are legal again, we’d love nothing more than to produce more shows in the greatest venue on Earth.”

The decision takes some pressure off the community and allows the pre-fest work for TFF #47 to occur without having Bluegrass going on simultaneously.

Here's the story from The Telluride Daily Planet.



RASOULOF'S THERE IS NO EVIL LANDS AT KINO LORBER

Variety reported this week that Mohammad Rsoulof's Berlin Golden Bear winner, There Is No Evil, has been acquired for distribution by Kino Lorber. 

Normally that combination of facts would suggest a very real possible TFF #47 slot for the film.  Rasoulof is a former TFF Tribute recipient (2013) and Kino Lorber has a significant history with films landing at TFF: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi, Fire at Sea, Film Worker and Beanpole over the past five years.  

However,the uncertainty swirling currently because of the Covid-19 global pandemic makes handicapping films that might be Telluride bound especially difficult.

Still, I'll be keeping an eye open about this film.

Variety has the story on the acquisition here.


CANNES LOCKED-IN?

Deadline reported this week that Cannes is specifically eye-balling the dates of June 23-July 4.  Deadline also suggests those dates are now expected to be Cannes only option for a live/physical film fest.

Deadline also reports rumors that some of the other sidebar sections of Cannes could play out at other dates but that the Palme d"or competition would not.

The story suggests that the festival wouldn't likely make a hard decision until the beginning of May.  April 16th was the date originally scheduled for the announcement of the fest's lineup and Deadline says that some films have been and continue to be invited as of their story dated last Thursday.

As I have sadi here before, irrespective of Cannes ultimate decision, it will have some ramifications for Telluride as well as other fall film fests.



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First Ten Bets for 2019 / The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part One / Variety's 31 Flavors of Oscar

Your final Friday of June has arrived...

FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2019

Well, it's here.

My very first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46.

I've been posting my guesses predictions for Telluride in this format since 2011.  Some years I have a better track record than others with the initial stab.  My track record throughout the years on the first Ten Bets looks like this:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner.  But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.

Other films that I listed on 2018's "just under the Ten Bets" that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.

Last year's half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.'

And so with that as a backdrop...drumroll please...here's your first Ten Bets for TFF #46


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


I'll be updating the Ten Bets each Friday for the rest of the summer and, as has become my custom, it will expand as we move through time.  Ultimately the final Ten Bets will come on Wednesday, August 28th with up to 25 films that I will predict or deduce that will make the TFF #46 lineup.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART ONE

Casting a glance today at smaller distribution houses and the films that they have that could make the Telluride program:

-COHEN MEDIA GROUP

This company is a consistent T-ride player.  Its history:

2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack


So what's in the CMG larder:

Safy Nebbou's Berlin hit Who You Think I Am.  The film focuses on a 50 year old woman (Juliette Binoche) who creates a fake social media profile.

At the moment, it seems to be the only film CMG has but don't discount the possibility that they'll acquire a film this summer that might also make the lineup.


-KINO LORBER

Another group that has been a frequent entrant in Telluride's fest.  Kino Lorber's track record:

2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain


After five straight years with at least one film in play at TFF, Kino Lorber was absent last year.  They could return- and have a good chance to do so, this year with a film that scored well at the Berlin International Film Festival. 

Nadav Lapid's Synonyms won the top prize, the Golden Bear, last February.  It has played a bunch of international fests since then.

IMDb describes the film as " A young Israeli man absconds to Paris to escape his nationality, aided by his trusty Franco-Israeli dictionary.


-IFC FILMS

IFC also has, at least for the moment, a single film that seems possible for T-ride and that is Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.   Described as a film that focuses on the stormy reunion between a daughter and her mother who is an actress involved in a sci-fi film in which she plays a woman who never ages.

After Kore-eda's stellar run in 2018 with Shoplifters which played TFF #45, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes  and was Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language film, you have to think that The Truth would be under real consideration for a return to Telluride for the director.


Chances for today's batch of films:

Synonyms 50%
The Truth 50%
Who You Think I Am 40%

I'll have a look at some of the other smaller distribution outfits on Monday.


VARIETY'S 31 FLAVORS OF OSCAR

Variety's Tim Gray posted a lengthy piece on Tuesday called "Oscar: 31 Upcoming Films that Could Enter the Awards Race". 

There are actually more than 31.
 when you look at all the lists and categorizations.

As you might expect, a slew of potential T-ride selections are on his various category lists.

Among the possible T-ride players that Gray includes are (in the order he lists them):

Untitled Jay Roach Fox News Project
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Little Women
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Laundromat
The Pope
Atlantics
Untitled Sally Potter Project (Molly)
Jojo Rabbit
The Woman in the Window
Joker...yea, I said it.
Motherless Brooklyn
The Good Liar
1917
Against All Enemies
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
Les Miserables
The Lighthouse
Lucy in the Sky
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project


The complete article is linked here.


That's the Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Acquisition News / Awards Daily Talks to MTFB / Vanity Fair's View / The People's Telluride- Rate Those Films-Deadline Looming

I can't believe its Friday.  Just a week ago we were embarking on TFF #44.  Now I have begun the countdown to TFF #45 and The Oscars...

ACQUISITION NEWS

Earlier this week Kino Lorber locked down two acquisitions of TFF #44 titles.  The independent specialty house will handle Film Worker and Hitler's Hollywood.  Incidentally, my brother saw both of these last weekend and really enjoyed them.

Meanwhile, Scott Cooper's Hostiles hasn't closed a distribution deal to my knowledge.  Variety's Kristopher Tapley reported during the fest that the film was getting some serious looks but it seems that no deal has been reached.  It's possible that both the producers and distributors are awaiting the films Toronto screenings and responses before moving to finalize an agreement.

The Tapley piece is linked here.

Meanwhile, coverage of the Kino Lorber deal is here from Screen International and here from Vimooz.



AWARDS DAILY TALKS TO MTFB

It certainly doesn't happen everyday but it did last weekend.  Sasha Stone of Awards Daily interviewed me and my wife Kristy for her podcast.  That podcast went up on her Awards Daily website yesterday.

It's a little surreal but then a lot of the Telluride experience is still surreal to me.

Here's the link to the podcast.

And speaking of podcasts, Clayton Davis, Mark Johnson and the crew at Awards Circuit have published their Circuit Breaker Podcast which features a Telluride breakdown as well.  You can find that here.

VANITY FAIR'S VIEW

Vanity Fair was all over Telluride last week and posted a gorgeous layout of photos that focused on the players and community of Telluride.  For example:

Angelina Jolie:

Billie Jean King and Emma Stone:

Barry Jenkins:

  

Check out the complete Vanity Fair shoot here.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-RATE THOSE FILMS-DEADLINE LOOMING

Don't forget to rate the films you saw last weekend.  Use a 0-5 scale and send them to me using any of the contact methods listed below.  The cutoff for voting is Tuesday, Sept. 12th.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Can We Talk Tributes? / Distribution: Kino Lorber's Telluride Profile / And a Thank You and a Re-Assessment

Good Independence Day America!  It's also a Monday...


CAN WE TALK TRIBUTES?

I know, I know.  It's too early.  Much smarter to do this guesswork later in the summer when the Telluride lineup has been made clearer by the lineup announcements from other festivals (i.e. Toronto, Venice and New York).  Nevertheless, over the weekend, for hoots, I decided to see if recent Telluride history could tell us anything and if we could apply those lessons in terms of creating some notions of who might get the medallions over Labor Day weekend.

Start with looking at tribute recipients over the past dozen years whose selection was in accordance to a film that was going to be a part of the fall release schedule, and perceptually a possible awards contender.  Here's the list of recipient/film (and distributor):

2004-Laura Linney/Kinsey (Fox Searchlight)
2005-Charlotte Rampling/Lemming (Strand) and The Dardennes Brothers/The Child (SPC)
2006-Penelope Cruz/Volver (SPC)
2007-Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood ( Paramount Vantage)
2008-David Fincher/Benjamin Button (Paramount)
2009-Viggo Mortensen/The Road (TWC-Dimension)
2010-Peter Weir/The Way Back (Mulitple) and Colin Firth/The King's Speech (TWC)
2011-Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk (Oscilloscope) and George Clooney/The Descendants (Fox Searchlight)
2012-Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (SPC) and Mads Mikkelsen/The Hunt and Royal Affair (Magnolia)
2013-Robert Redford/All is Lost (Lionsgate, Roadside) and The Coen Brothers w/ T-Bone Burnett/Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films)
2014-Hilary Swank/The Homesman (Roadside/Saban)
2015-Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (Warners) and Rooney Mara/Carol (TWC)

Takeaways:
21 people tributed:

14 men and 7 women

7 actresses
6 actors
9 directors (Redford and Clooney count here as well as the actor category)
1 musician (T-Bone)

The Weinstein Company-3
Sony Pictures Classics-3
Fox Searchlight-2
Lionsgate et al-2
Paramount-2

So...

A tribute recipient is more likely to be a man and slightly more likely to be a director.  Also, you're more likely to be a tribute recipient if you're in  film from one of the five distribution outlets listed above.

Now, let's apply this information to the films we think might be in play from each of these five.

The Weinstein Company: Lion.  Your best tribute bet from Lion is Nicole Kidman  I actually think that this could be a very real possibility (especially if TFF doubles up on Kidman films playing the fest.  I.E. How to Talk to Girls at Parties).  The director here is Garth Davis, who doesn't have a long enough resume to be a believable candidate and no other cast mate suggests the possibility, especially since Rooney Mara was a tributee last year.  The other outside shot is Wild Oats.  Star Shirley MacLaine was a tribute recipient in 1996 but I could see a Jessica Lange tribute as a very real possibility...if the film rises to Telluride standards.

This note, however, see the latest TWC news below [which means we might consider Matthew McConnaughey as atribute possibility]...

SPC-  They're likely to be in The SHOW with at least two films: Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle and they could conceivably get in a couple more: Julieta and Elle.  Not a soul is terribly probable here.  Director Pedro Almodovar (Julieta) was a tribute recipient in 1988 and actress Isabelle Huppert (Elle) received one in 1986.  No one else stands out with the possible exception of director Paul Verhoeven (Elle) and I just don't see that.  Though, I do have to say, I am increasingly reassessing my insistence that the film won't play Telluride.  As of this morning, it's moved from a "nope" to a "maybe".

Fox Searchlight- Their only shots at Telluride appear to be Wilson and The Birth of a Nation. No one in BOAN seems very likely as a tribute candidate.  But Wilson is a different matter.  The film's star is Woody Harrelson and I could see that easily as a possibility for tribute.

Lionsgate/Roadside/Saban-Their best bets for Telluride are La La Land and American Pastoral.  La La seems all too young.  Certainly not director Damien Chazelle, whose career has just begun. Among the cast, I suppose Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are possible but the most probable might be character actor and recent Oscar winner J.K Simmons.

In as far as American Pastoral is concerned: Director/Actor Ewan McGregor wouldn't be a totally crazy option nor would co-star Jennifer Connelly.  By the by, if American Pastoral makes the trip to the San Juans, can we bring Philip Roth?

Paramount- Paramount's bench is deep with films that could make a T-ride lineup if they and the fest see eye to eye.  Allied, Arrival, The Lost City of Z, Silence.  Let's look at the tribute potential for each:

Allied- Director Robert Zemeckis-sure.  Star-Brad Pitt-Yup.  Marion Cotillard-already got one in 2012.

Arrival- Director Denis Villenueve-probably too early in his career.  Amy Adams-yup.  Jeremy Renner and Forest Whitaker-maybe.

The Lost City of Z- Director James Gray is a maybe.  The cast all seems too young-Hunnam, Pattinson, Holland.

Silence- Now, both the director, Martin Scorsese and  lead actor Liam Neeson would be a great choice for a tribute but I suspect that if Silence does a fest at all it will be NYFF or maybe AFI.  Hope I'm wrong.



DISTRIBUTION: KINO LORBER'S TELLURIDE PROFILE

Kino and/or Lorber and Kino Lorber were a hit and miss Telluride presence a decade ago.  They had Blind Mountain at TFF in 2007 and weren't back again until 2010 with La Quattro Volte and Poetry. Then after another lengthy layoff, they've become a solid presenter at Telluride over the last three years.

2013- Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2014-The Decent One
2015- Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi

So for 2016?  Kino Lorber has Berlin Golden Bear winner Fire at Sea in their stable and I really do think that it will make an appearance over Labor Day weekend.  Aside from Fire at Sea, however, I'm not as bullish about other films that KL has.

Slack Bay played at Cannes to middling critical response and no wins in competition.  Tower, the animated documentary about the shootings on the University of Texas campus by Charles Whitman in 1966, has played in a bunch of domestic fests, including South by Southwest so it's off the table.

So, Fire at Sea (80%) seems like the lone entry from Kino Lorber this year but also seems virtual lock to me with an outside shot at Slack Bay (35%) making the program.

Tomorrow our distribution odyssey will continue as we take a look at the newest and hottest players at Telluride from the last couple of years and the newest player that could make a splash at T-ride in 2016.


AND A THANK YOU AND A RE-ASSESSMENT

Much appreciation to Sasha Stone who mentioned me and MTFB in her Saturday story about the upcoming HHhH from The Weinstein Company.  I need to probably go back and retroactively add it to last Wednesday story about films that TWC has in its hopper.

Here's the link to her story:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/02/best-picture-watch-hhhh-weinstein-project-about-nazis/

Meanwhile, I stumbled across the fact that Jeff Wells has Stephen Gaghan's Gold listed among his Oscar Balloon films as one of those with "highest expectations".  The film stars Matthew McConnaughey and Edgar Ramirez.  I had been discounting the film altogether as it is also listed at IMDb as being under TWC's Dimension branch (which, to be fair, did provide The Road for Telluride in 2009).

Here's Well's latest Oscar Balloon:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/oscar-balloon/

Finally, add to add to the TWC pile this weekend, I heard from a friend who had heard from a friend (so, weigh that as you will) that Lion was screened privately at Cannes and the film wasn't particularly well received.

So after TWC's initial evaluation last week on Wednesday, my thinking has changed just a bit.  On Wednesday I had Lion at 60% and Wild Oats at 30% with Ballerina at 15%.

Now, with the added information add HHhH and Gold to our list and re-adjust:  New TWC chances:

Lion 50%
HHhH 30%
Gold 30%
Wild Oats 30%
Ballerina 15%

And, let me just ask rhetorically, could his be the first year  since I started tracking this stuff (I have TWC/Miramax back to 2006) that The Weinstein Company does not have a film at TFF?


Happy Fourth ya'll.  More on Tuesday...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

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OR leave a comment...

A Final Look at Distributors/"Miss You Already" Trailer/Final Note for Tuesday

Welcome Back from the weekend.  My apologies for the late post today but I got in late last night from Steamboat Springs, CO. after being there for an art show.  Now onto the business at hand.


A FINAL LOOK AT DISTRIBUTORS

STRAND RELEASING

Strand has been a consistent presence at Telluride over the past five years:

2010: Cameraman: The Life and Work of Jack Cardiff
2011: Bonsai
2012: Paradise: Love
2013: The Missing Picture
2014: A Borrowed Identity (Dancing Arabs)

This year their most likely player, and really the only film they list at IMDb that seems like a possible T-ride choice,  is from 2010 Cannes Palme d'Or ("Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives") winner Apichatpong Weerasethakul's "Cemetery of Splendor".  The film played this year at Cannes in the Un Certain Regard program and has been very well reviewed since. I put the chances of this film playing at Telluride at 40%.


OPEN ROAD

Open Road Films showed up with a splash at Telluride last year with Jon Stewart's directorial debut "Rosewater".  To the best of my ability to research, it was the first time Open Roads has made a play at Telluride.  2015 could be the second straight year to make the fest with, I think, four films that might make the grade again this year with four possible films that seem to be intriguing as Telluride potentials:

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" starring Michael Keaton among others.
John Hillcoat's "Triple Nine"
Oliver Stone's "Snowden" and
Barry Levinson's "Rock the Kasbah"

However...

Hillcoat was in Telluride in 2009 with "The Road" but "Triple 9" isn't set for release until March, 2016.

Stone was in Telluride in 1997 with "U-Turn".  I wonder if he might be talked into returning to Telluride for this film.

McCarthy's "Spotlight", about corruption with the Boston Catholic Church hierarchy, is among a half dozen films that are being rumored to open the Toronto Fest.

Levinson played Venice with Al Pacino in "The Humbling" in 2014.  Perhaps he does that again this year and then makes the flight to Telluride.

Chances:

"Spotlight" 40%
"Snowden" 30%
"Rock the Kasbah" 30%
"Tripe 9" 20%

ALCHEMY

Alchemy was present at Telluride last year with Madam Bovary from director Sophie Barthes in only the second year of their existence.  This season they have a couple of Cannes films in their larder that could show at The SHOW.

Both Nanni Moretti's "Mia Madre" and Yorgos Lanthimos' "The Lobster" made respectable splashes in competition at Cannes.  "Mia Madre" won the Ecumenical Jury Prize and "The Lobster" won a Jury Prize.  So either film could easily be on the T-ride programmers radar.

Chances for both films is at 35%


KINO LORBER

KL was at Telluride last year with "The Decent One".

Other Telluride plays include:

2013: "Manuscripts Don't Burn", La Maison de la Radio", Burning Bush"

Kino has the U.S. distribution for Cannes competit1on film, and again, a very well reviewed film, Zhangke Jia's "Mountains May Depart".  I currently have "Mountains" off of the "Ten Bets' list, but it appeared a week earlier at #9.  I think its chances are very good to make the T-ride lineup.  Put those chances at 60%.


That will conclude this year's review of possible Telluride distributors.  It's not a complete list of potential distributors (for example, "Trumbo" is at Bleecker Street, but they have no previous Telluride footprint and such a small catalogue of past films, evaluating it is impossible) but it's fairly exhaustive based on recent festivals and the films that are currently announced for probable release this year.

Tomorrow I'll begin a series of  posts about European production firms that have a significant history with films that have played Telluride and what that might tell us for T-ride 2015.



"MISS YOU ALREADY" TRAILER

"Miss You Already" trailer from YouTube

We have our first look at Catherine Hardwicke's "Miss You Already".  The film is in the hands of Roadside Attractions/Lionsgate and that is the biggest reason to take it seriously as a Telluride possible after Roadside's three film presence at the Fest.

Here's the story from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-trailer-for-catherine-hardwickes-miss-you-already-starring-drew-barrymore-toni-collette-20150709


FINAL NOTE FOR TUESDAY

Cameron Bailey, the Artistic Director for Toronto's Film Fest tweeted cryptically yesterday:

Who decides? News tomorrow morning. #TIFF15.

Seems to me that we're going to hear some news from TIFF about who their programmers are.
TIFF should announce their first wave of films a week from today.


More tomorrow...


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