TFF #43 Ten Bets #5 / Rules Festing? / Mining for Gold and Weinstein Woes / Venetian Rumors

Good Friday to everyone...

Let's start off with this week's Ten Bets update and the last one we'll have prior to next Tuesday's first wave of films announced for the Toronto International Film Festival and Thursday's Venice Film Fest announcement.

TFF #43 TEN BETS #5

Last week's Ten Bets:

10) The Unknown Girl
9) Things to Come
8) Wilson
7) La La Land
6) American Honey
5) Moonlight
4) The Red Turtle
3) Toni Erdmann
2) Fire at Sea
1) The Salesman


This week's Ten Bets:

10) The Unknown Girl
9) Arrival
8) Things to Come
7) American Honey
6) Moonlight
5) La La Land
4) The Salesman
3) Toni Erdmann
2) The Red Turtle
1) Fire at Sea

Close: Lion, Aquarius, Denial, A Monster Calls, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson, Dog Eat Dog, The Sense of an Ending.

A couple of notes:  as of this writing (7:00 am on Fri. 7/22) I am really back and forth about the Dardenne Brothers The Unknown Girl.  I am continuing to include it in the Ten Bets because of the frequency that the brothers have had films make the T-ride lineup but I honestly wouldn't be stunned if it is announced Tuesday for TIFF as a North American premiere.

I have The Weinstein's Lion just under the Ten Bets again this week although the turmoil and rumors surrounding TWC have me wondering if any TWC film will play Telluride this year.  The lack of a TWC title would be incredibly odd as they've played at least one film in the Telluride lineup every year that I've attended.  Still, of the four films that are possible ( Lion, The Founder, Gold, HHhH), none of them seems to be making a ton of pre-fest noise.  Meanwhile, rumors of financial difficulties also are dogging TWC right now which further muddies the picture and may explain some of the release date shifting that has occurred.  See below...


RULES FESTING?

Remember yesterday's post that included the analysis of The Guardian's 40 Films...Predict...Fests" article?   You might have noticed that Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply was included among The Guardian's "Dead Cert(ain)" list.  I suggested that its inclusion was intriguing because of Beatty's reported reluctance to play the film at Festivals.

Then, later in the day yesterday, a post popped up on Indiewire from Anne Thompson assessing the film's Oscar potential.  In it Thompson makes two references to the film making a play at fall film fests.  First writing that the film is

"...the film is ready to be unveiled at film festivals this fall"

And then late in the article Anne writes:

"Whether Rules Don't Apply (November 23) delivers both commercially and  artistically will be revealed at the fall festivals."

You might say..."well, Mikey...maybe it just plays New York."  And I'd say, that makes a lot of sense, but Thompson pretty clearly uses the plural "festivals" twice.

One other tidbit, Thompson compares the film in some respects to four films, two of which are The Artist and Birdman.  Both films played Telluride and won the Oscar for Best Picture.

I have to wonder if Thompson and The Guardian know more than we do...

Let's keep our eyes and ears open, shall we?

Hers' the link to the entire Thompson post:

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/07/warren-beatty-alden-ehrenreich-rules-dont-apply-comedy-oscar-1201706837/


MINING FOR GOLD AND WEINSTEIN WOES

Matthew McConnaughey and Edgar Ramirez in Gold

TWC-Dimension announced a release date for Stephen Gaghan's Gold starring Matthew McConnaughey.  The film will be opening on Dec. 25 making it eligible for Oscar consideration. TWC earlier this week moved its Michael Keaton starring The Founder off its August date and into December as well with a limited release on 12/16 and a wider rollout on Jan. 20.  They also moved Tulip Fever starring Alicia Vikander to 2017.  That film has been booted around a good deal as well.

As of this morning TWC has these four films in the chute for between now and the end of the year:

Lion (11/25)
Gold (12/15)
The Founder (12/16 and 1/20/17)
HHhH (Undetermined 2016 date)

It's all a dance amid speculation that The Weinstein Company is having some money trouble.

Check out this story and interview with Harvey Weinstein from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/harvey-weinstein-explains-movie-release-913142

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weinstein-cos-movie-shifts-raise-912571

Additionally, here is coverage of the announcement for Gold's release:

http://www.thewrap.com/twc-sets-holiday-release-date-for-matthew-mcconaugheys-gold/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/matthew-mcconaugheys-gold-dec-25-913306

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/07/21/matthew-mcconaughey-gold-christmas-release


VENETIAN RUMORS

Indiewire reported yesterday that Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals are likely to be named as films to play the Venice Film Fest next week.  They would join Damien Chazelle's La La Land which has already been announced as the opener.

All three films could conceivably make the leap between Venice and Telluride.

Here's the Indiewire story:

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/07/tom-ford-nocturnal-animals-denis-villeneuve-arrival-venice-film-festival-1201708530/



That's it for this week.  Monday's post will include news about a likely animation title for TFF #43 and our annual look at TFF's "Usual Suspects" and who among them might be returning with projects for this year's SHOW.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

Or leave a comment...

The Guardian Predicts / The Euro Producers; The French-Cinecinema/Cine+ / Fences Swings for the Fences

Good Thursday World!


THE GUARDIAN PREDICTS

Britain's The Guardian posted a "40 Films We Predict Will Premiere at Venice, Toronto or Telluride" story yesterday.  The predix offer some surprises.  Breaking it down: the article bresks the 40 films into three categories-Dead Certs, Quite Likely and If It's Ready.

The piece names Telluride as a specific possibility for two films that we already know will play somewhere before the BFI/London Fest owing to their status their as European premieres: A United Kingdom and The Queen of Katwe.  United Kingdom seems to me to be the more likely T-ride player of the two.  Venice is listed as a specific designated fest probability for Planetarium while Toronto is listed for A United Kingdom, The Queen of Katwe, The Girl on the Train, Free Fire and The Seagull.

Among their "Dead Certs" the best Telluride potentials look like: Denial (from Bleeker Street which partnered with Netflix last year on Beats of No Nation), One or the other of TWC's The Founder or Lion and Arrival.  Outside T-ride shots in this category: The Secret Scripture, The Mercy and the Malick double play of Weightless and The Voyage of Time.

Interestingly, The Guardian lists Warren Beatty's Rules Don;t Apply in the Dead Cert category which is very intriguing,

In the Quite Likely category you'll fins Telluride possibilities such as HHhH and Gold (the other two Weinstein fall films...at least for the moment), 20th Century Women, War Machine (from Netflix), Wilson and How to Talk to Girls at Parties.

Among the "If It's Ready" films I don't find anything that's A) likely to be ready and B) if it is, likely to be a Telluride bound...though I'd really like to put in a word for Miss Sloane.

It's worth noting that The Guardian sponsored TFF #42.

Check the complete article here:

https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2016/jul/20/40-films-predict-premiere-venice-toronto-telluride-festivals




THE EURO PRODUCERS: THE FRENCH-CINECINEMA/CINE+

CineCinema changed over to Cine+ within the last few years but it's all the same.  This production company has often been represented at Telluride over the last few years:

2005: Lemming, Live and Become
2006: The Page Turner, Indigenes
2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
2008: With a Little Help from Myself
2009: Farewell, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, Inferno
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: Goodbye First Love, The Kid with a Bike, Le Havre, The Artist
2012: Rust and Bone, Superstar, The Attack, Amour
2013: The Past, Blue is the Warmest Color, Le Maison de la Radio
2014: The Gate. The Price of Fame, Two Days One Night, Diplomacy
2015: Marguerite

The best opportunities for Cine+ to play Telluride this year is Slack Bay.  After that their slate doesn't look, at this point, to offer a lot of other possibilities.


FENCES SWINGS FOR THE FENCES

Fences still from Deadline.com

We missed mentioning this acouple of days ago but Denzel Washington's adaptation of August Wilson's Fences has been dated for an awards season qualifying time frame.  Mutiple reports put the film which Washington both directs and stars in as being released in a limited fashion on Dec. 16 and then going wider on Dec. 25.  Fences is from Paramount which is loaded with titles for this awards season.  In addition to Fences they have Allied, Arrival and Silence.

Admittedly, Fences is an unlikely Telluride film...but you never know...

Coverage of the Fences date announcement:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/denzel-washington-fences-december-release-1201816381/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/denzel-washingtons-fences-snags-awards-912004

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/07/18/denzel-washington-fences-release-date

That's it for Thursday.  Come back tomorrow for the latest Telluride Ten Bets.  It's the last one before announcements from Toronto and Venice.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

TFF #43 Ten Bets #4 / Euro Producers Part Two: The French-StudioCanal / The Rules Don't Apply for The Rules Don't Apply

It's FRIDAY!

TFF #43 TEN BETS

We're a couple of weeks away from the dual announcements of the first wave of Toronto films and the majority of films that will play the Venice fest and both of those lists will begin to give us our first real opportunity to do some inductive reasoning and a good idea of some of the Telluride lineup. Until then, you're stuck with my best guesses.

Last week's Ten Bets:

10) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)

9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)

8) The Unknown Girl (Dardenne Brothers, TBA)

7) The Red Turtle, Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)

6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)

5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, Y+TBA)

4) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)

3) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

2) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, 12/9)

1) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)

This week's Ten Bets:

10) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance Selects, TBA)
9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance Selects, TBA)
8)  Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

7) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)

6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)

5) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)

4) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)

3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, 12/25)

2) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)

1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen, 12/9)

Close: Lion, American Pastoral, Salt and Fire, A United Kingdom, Aquarius, Journey Through French Cinema, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson, Bleed for This, Arrival.

EURO PRODUCERS PART TWO: THE FRENCH- STUDIOCANAL

Over the past 13 years, these films have played Telluride while having some production assistance from StudioCanal:

2003: Young Adam, Love Me If You Dare

2005: Cache

2006: Indigines, Catch a Fire

2010: The Princess of Montpensier

2012: Love, Marilyn

2013: Inside Llewyn Davis

2015: He Named Me Malala

In the hopper:  The Lost City of Z, Gold, From the Land of the Moon.  We could see any, all or none of these.

THE RULES DON'T APPLY FOR THE RULES DON'T APPLY

Warren Beatty's new film...he says won't be in a fall film fest.  Warren Beatty is a trickster.  He's probably not spoofing us...but he might be.

And if he is?  

Honestly, the most likely spots would be AFI and New York.  Venice and then Toronto.  Telluride would be probably the last possibility...which makes it possible if Beatty is playing a game.  Do I think it's coming?  Nope.  But what if it did?

Anyway...the folks at 20th Century Fox released a trailer for the film early yesterday morning.  Here it is from YouTube:

It looks fairly humorous...

Coverage of the trailer drop is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/rules-dont-apply-trailer-warren-911007

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/14/trailer-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply/

http://theplaylist.net/first-trailer-warren-beattys-big-screen-return-rules-dont-apply-lily-collins-alden-ehrenreich-20160714/

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/watch-first-trailer-for-rules-dont-apply-directed-by-warren-beatty/

http://www.thewrap.com/warren-beatty-lily-collins-rules-dont-apply-trailer-howard-hughes/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/07/14/watch-first-trailer-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply-w-alden-ehrenreich-lily-collins/

http://www.showbiz411.com/2016/07/14/first-trailer-for-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply-looks-like-a-hit


That's all for this Friday.  Have a great weekend everyone.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

Can We Talk Tributes? / Distribution: Kino Lorber's Telluride Profile / And a Thank You and a Re-Assessment

Good Independence Day America!  It's also a Monday...


CAN WE TALK TRIBUTES?

I know, I know.  It's too early.  Much smarter to do this guesswork later in the summer when the Telluride lineup has been made clearer by the lineup announcements from other festivals (i.e. Toronto, Venice and New York).  Nevertheless, over the weekend, for hoots, I decided to see if recent Telluride history could tell us anything and if we could apply those lessons in terms of creating some notions of who might get the medallions over Labor Day weekend.

Start with looking at tribute recipients over the past dozen years whose selection was in accordance to a film that was going to be a part of the fall release schedule, and perceptually a possible awards contender.  Here's the list of recipient/film (and distributor):

2004-Laura Linney/Kinsey (Fox Searchlight)
2005-Charlotte Rampling/Lemming (Strand) and The Dardennes Brothers/The Child (SPC)
2006-Penelope Cruz/Volver (SPC)
2007-Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood ( Paramount Vantage)
2008-David Fincher/Benjamin Button (Paramount)
2009-Viggo Mortensen/The Road (TWC-Dimension)
2010-Peter Weir/The Way Back (Mulitple) and Colin Firth/The King's Speech (TWC)
2011-Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk (Oscilloscope) and George Clooney/The Descendants (Fox Searchlight)
2012-Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (SPC) and Mads Mikkelsen/The Hunt and Royal Affair (Magnolia)
2013-Robert Redford/All is Lost (Lionsgate, Roadside) and The Coen Brothers w/ T-Bone Burnett/Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films)
2014-Hilary Swank/The Homesman (Roadside/Saban)
2015-Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (Warners) and Rooney Mara/Carol (TWC)

Takeaways:
21 people tributed:

14 men and 7 women

7 actresses
6 actors
9 directors (Redford and Clooney count here as well as the actor category)
1 musician (T-Bone)

The Weinstein Company-3
Sony Pictures Classics-3
Fox Searchlight-2
Lionsgate et al-2
Paramount-2

So...

A tribute recipient is more likely to be a man and slightly more likely to be a director.  Also, you're more likely to be a tribute recipient if you're in  film from one of the five distribution outlets listed above.

Now, let's apply this information to the films we think might be in play from each of these five.

The Weinstein Company: Lion.  Your best tribute bet from Lion is Nicole Kidman  I actually think that this could be a very real possibility (especially if TFF doubles up on Kidman films playing the fest.  I.E. How to Talk to Girls at Parties).  The director here is Garth Davis, who doesn't have a long enough resume to be a believable candidate and no other cast mate suggests the possibility, especially since Rooney Mara was a tributee last year.  The other outside shot is Wild Oats.  Star Shirley MacLaine was a tribute recipient in 1996 but I could see a Jessica Lange tribute as a very real possibility...if the film rises to Telluride standards.

This note, however, see the latest TWC news below [which means we might consider Matthew McConnaughey as atribute possibility]...

SPC-  They're likely to be in The SHOW with at least two films: Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle and they could conceivably get in a couple more: Julieta and Elle.  Not a soul is terribly probable here.  Director Pedro Almodovar (Julieta) was a tribute recipient in 1988 and actress Isabelle Huppert (Elle) received one in 1986.  No one else stands out with the possible exception of director Paul Verhoeven (Elle) and I just don't see that.  Though, I do have to say, I am increasingly reassessing my insistence that the film won't play Telluride.  As of this morning, it's moved from a "nope" to a "maybe".

Fox Searchlight- Their only shots at Telluride appear to be Wilson and The Birth of a Nation. No one in BOAN seems very likely as a tribute candidate.  But Wilson is a different matter.  The film's star is Woody Harrelson and I could see that easily as a possibility for tribute.

Lionsgate/Roadside/Saban-Their best bets for Telluride are La La Land and American Pastoral.  La La seems all too young.  Certainly not director Damien Chazelle, whose career has just begun. Among the cast, I suppose Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are possible but the most probable might be character actor and recent Oscar winner J.K Simmons.

In as far as American Pastoral is concerned: Director/Actor Ewan McGregor wouldn't be a totally crazy option nor would co-star Jennifer Connelly.  By the by, if American Pastoral makes the trip to the San Juans, can we bring Philip Roth?

Paramount- Paramount's bench is deep with films that could make a T-ride lineup if they and the fest see eye to eye.  Allied, Arrival, The Lost City of Z, Silence.  Let's look at the tribute potential for each:

Allied- Director Robert Zemeckis-sure.  Star-Brad Pitt-Yup.  Marion Cotillard-already got one in 2012.

Arrival- Director Denis Villenueve-probably too early in his career.  Amy Adams-yup.  Jeremy Renner and Forest Whitaker-maybe.

The Lost City of Z- Director James Gray is a maybe.  The cast all seems too young-Hunnam, Pattinson, Holland.

Silence- Now, both the director, Martin Scorsese and  lead actor Liam Neeson would be a great choice for a tribute but I suspect that if Silence does a fest at all it will be NYFF or maybe AFI.  Hope I'm wrong.



DISTRIBUTION: KINO LORBER'S TELLURIDE PROFILE

Kino and/or Lorber and Kino Lorber were a hit and miss Telluride presence a decade ago.  They had Blind Mountain at TFF in 2007 and weren't back again until 2010 with La Quattro Volte and Poetry. Then after another lengthy layoff, they've become a solid presenter at Telluride over the last three years.

2013- Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2014-The Decent One
2015- Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi

So for 2016?  Kino Lorber has Berlin Golden Bear winner Fire at Sea in their stable and I really do think that it will make an appearance over Labor Day weekend.  Aside from Fire at Sea, however, I'm not as bullish about other films that KL has.

Slack Bay played at Cannes to middling critical response and no wins in competition.  Tower, the animated documentary about the shootings on the University of Texas campus by Charles Whitman in 1966, has played in a bunch of domestic fests, including South by Southwest so it's off the table.

So, Fire at Sea (80%) seems like the lone entry from Kino Lorber this year but also seems virtual lock to me with an outside shot at Slack Bay (35%) making the program.

Tomorrow our distribution odyssey will continue as we take a look at the newest and hottest players at Telluride from the last couple of years and the newest player that could make a splash at T-ride in 2016.


AND A THANK YOU AND A RE-ASSESSMENT

Much appreciation to Sasha Stone who mentioned me and MTFB in her Saturday story about the upcoming HHhH from The Weinstein Company.  I need to probably go back and retroactively add it to last Wednesday story about films that TWC has in its hopper.

Here's the link to her story:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/02/best-picture-watch-hhhh-weinstein-project-about-nazis/

Meanwhile, I stumbled across the fact that Jeff Wells has Stephen Gaghan's Gold listed among his Oscar Balloon films as one of those with "highest expectations".  The film stars Matthew McConnaughey and Edgar Ramirez.  I had been discounting the film altogether as it is also listed at IMDb as being under TWC's Dimension branch (which, to be fair, did provide The Road for Telluride in 2009).

Here's Well's latest Oscar Balloon:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/oscar-balloon/

Finally, add to add to the TWC pile this weekend, I heard from a friend who had heard from a friend (so, weigh that as you will) that Lion was screened privately at Cannes and the film wasn't particularly well received.

So after TWC's initial evaluation last week on Wednesday, my thinking has changed just a bit.  On Wednesday I had Lion at 60% and Wild Oats at 30% with Ballerina at 15%.

Now, with the added information add HHhH and Gold to our list and re-adjust:  New TWC chances:

Lion 50%
HHhH 30%
Gold 30%
Wild Oats 30%
Ballerina 15%

And, let me just ask rhetorically, could his be the first year  since I started tracking this stuff (I have TWC/Miramax back to 2006) that The Weinstein Company does not have a film at TFF?


Happy Fourth ya'll.  More on Tuesday...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...