Can We Talk Tributes? / Distribution: Kino Lorber's Telluride Profile / And a Thank You and a Re-Assessment

Good Independence Day America!  It's also a Monday...


CAN WE TALK TRIBUTES?

I know, I know.  It's too early.  Much smarter to do this guesswork later in the summer when the Telluride lineup has been made clearer by the lineup announcements from other festivals (i.e. Toronto, Venice and New York).  Nevertheless, over the weekend, for hoots, I decided to see if recent Telluride history could tell us anything and if we could apply those lessons in terms of creating some notions of who might get the medallions over Labor Day weekend.

Start with looking at tribute recipients over the past dozen years whose selection was in accordance to a film that was going to be a part of the fall release schedule, and perceptually a possible awards contender.  Here's the list of recipient/film (and distributor):

2004-Laura Linney/Kinsey (Fox Searchlight)
2005-Charlotte Rampling/Lemming (Strand) and The Dardennes Brothers/The Child (SPC)
2006-Penelope Cruz/Volver (SPC)
2007-Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood ( Paramount Vantage)
2008-David Fincher/Benjamin Button (Paramount)
2009-Viggo Mortensen/The Road (TWC-Dimension)
2010-Peter Weir/The Way Back (Mulitple) and Colin Firth/The King's Speech (TWC)
2011-Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk (Oscilloscope) and George Clooney/The Descendants (Fox Searchlight)
2012-Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (SPC) and Mads Mikkelsen/The Hunt and Royal Affair (Magnolia)
2013-Robert Redford/All is Lost (Lionsgate, Roadside) and The Coen Brothers w/ T-Bone Burnett/Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films)
2014-Hilary Swank/The Homesman (Roadside/Saban)
2015-Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (Warners) and Rooney Mara/Carol (TWC)

Takeaways:
21 people tributed:

14 men and 7 women

7 actresses
6 actors
9 directors (Redford and Clooney count here as well as the actor category)
1 musician (T-Bone)

The Weinstein Company-3
Sony Pictures Classics-3
Fox Searchlight-2
Lionsgate et al-2
Paramount-2

So...

A tribute recipient is more likely to be a man and slightly more likely to be a director.  Also, you're more likely to be a tribute recipient if you're in  film from one of the five distribution outlets listed above.

Now, let's apply this information to the films we think might be in play from each of these five.

The Weinstein Company: Lion.  Your best tribute bet from Lion is Nicole Kidman  I actually think that this could be a very real possibility (especially if TFF doubles up on Kidman films playing the fest.  I.E. How to Talk to Girls at Parties).  The director here is Garth Davis, who doesn't have a long enough resume to be a believable candidate and no other cast mate suggests the possibility, especially since Rooney Mara was a tributee last year.  The other outside shot is Wild Oats.  Star Shirley MacLaine was a tribute recipient in 1996 but I could see a Jessica Lange tribute as a very real possibility...if the film rises to Telluride standards.

This note, however, see the latest TWC news below [which means we might consider Matthew McConnaughey as atribute possibility]...

SPC-  They're likely to be in The SHOW with at least two films: Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle and they could conceivably get in a couple more: Julieta and Elle.  Not a soul is terribly probable here.  Director Pedro Almodovar (Julieta) was a tribute recipient in 1988 and actress Isabelle Huppert (Elle) received one in 1986.  No one else stands out with the possible exception of director Paul Verhoeven (Elle) and I just don't see that.  Though, I do have to say, I am increasingly reassessing my insistence that the film won't play Telluride.  As of this morning, it's moved from a "nope" to a "maybe".

Fox Searchlight- Their only shots at Telluride appear to be Wilson and The Birth of a Nation. No one in BOAN seems very likely as a tribute candidate.  But Wilson is a different matter.  The film's star is Woody Harrelson and I could see that easily as a possibility for tribute.

Lionsgate/Roadside/Saban-Their best bets for Telluride are La La Land and American Pastoral.  La La seems all too young.  Certainly not director Damien Chazelle, whose career has just begun. Among the cast, I suppose Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are possible but the most probable might be character actor and recent Oscar winner J.K Simmons.

In as far as American Pastoral is concerned: Director/Actor Ewan McGregor wouldn't be a totally crazy option nor would co-star Jennifer Connelly.  By the by, if American Pastoral makes the trip to the San Juans, can we bring Philip Roth?

Paramount- Paramount's bench is deep with films that could make a T-ride lineup if they and the fest see eye to eye.  Allied, Arrival, The Lost City of Z, Silence.  Let's look at the tribute potential for each:

Allied- Director Robert Zemeckis-sure.  Star-Brad Pitt-Yup.  Marion Cotillard-already got one in 2012.

Arrival- Director Denis Villenueve-probably too early in his career.  Amy Adams-yup.  Jeremy Renner and Forest Whitaker-maybe.

The Lost City of Z- Director James Gray is a maybe.  The cast all seems too young-Hunnam, Pattinson, Holland.

Silence- Now, both the director, Martin Scorsese and  lead actor Liam Neeson would be a great choice for a tribute but I suspect that if Silence does a fest at all it will be NYFF or maybe AFI.  Hope I'm wrong.



DISTRIBUTION: KINO LORBER'S TELLURIDE PROFILE

Kino and/or Lorber and Kino Lorber were a hit and miss Telluride presence a decade ago.  They had Blind Mountain at TFF in 2007 and weren't back again until 2010 with La Quattro Volte and Poetry. Then after another lengthy layoff, they've become a solid presenter at Telluride over the last three years.

2013- Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2014-The Decent One
2015- Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi

So for 2016?  Kino Lorber has Berlin Golden Bear winner Fire at Sea in their stable and I really do think that it will make an appearance over Labor Day weekend.  Aside from Fire at Sea, however, I'm not as bullish about other films that KL has.

Slack Bay played at Cannes to middling critical response and no wins in competition.  Tower, the animated documentary about the shootings on the University of Texas campus by Charles Whitman in 1966, has played in a bunch of domestic fests, including South by Southwest so it's off the table.

So, Fire at Sea (80%) seems like the lone entry from Kino Lorber this year but also seems virtual lock to me with an outside shot at Slack Bay (35%) making the program.

Tomorrow our distribution odyssey will continue as we take a look at the newest and hottest players at Telluride from the last couple of years and the newest player that could make a splash at T-ride in 2016.


AND A THANK YOU AND A RE-ASSESSMENT

Much appreciation to Sasha Stone who mentioned me and MTFB in her Saturday story about the upcoming HHhH from The Weinstein Company.  I need to probably go back and retroactively add it to last Wednesday story about films that TWC has in its hopper.

Here's the link to her story:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/02/best-picture-watch-hhhh-weinstein-project-about-nazis/

Meanwhile, I stumbled across the fact that Jeff Wells has Stephen Gaghan's Gold listed among his Oscar Balloon films as one of those with "highest expectations".  The film stars Matthew McConnaughey and Edgar Ramirez.  I had been discounting the film altogether as it is also listed at IMDb as being under TWC's Dimension branch (which, to be fair, did provide The Road for Telluride in 2009).

Here's Well's latest Oscar Balloon:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/oscar-balloon/

Finally, add to add to the TWC pile this weekend, I heard from a friend who had heard from a friend (so, weigh that as you will) that Lion was screened privately at Cannes and the film wasn't particularly well received.

So after TWC's initial evaluation last week on Wednesday, my thinking has changed just a bit.  On Wednesday I had Lion at 60% and Wild Oats at 30% with Ballerina at 15%.

Now, with the added information add HHhH and Gold to our list and re-adjust:  New TWC chances:

Lion 50%
HHhH 30%
Gold 30%
Wild Oats 30%
Ballerina 15%

And, let me just ask rhetorically, could his be the first year  since I started tracking this stuff (I have TWC/Miramax back to 2006) that The Weinstein Company does not have a film at TFF?


Happy Fourth ya'll.  More on Tuesday...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

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Looking at Distribution: Sony Pictures Classics / Wells Gives Us Hints / Osiason Updates His Predictions

Good Monday All...


LOOKING AT DISTRIBUTION: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Each year at about this time I begin to break down three categories of film makers to look at the most probable of Telluride Film Fest lineup choices.  Those categories being Overseas Producers, The "Usual Suspects"...people with a very clear history with the fest and Distirbutors.

Today I begin the breakdown of distribution companies that have had films play at Telluride.  It's worth noting that not every film that makes the lineup each year has a distribution deal in place when it screens in Telluride but most do and by looking at a distribs past record and what they have in their stable, we can try to make some educated guesses about what films might make the trip to southwest Colorado over the Labor Day weekend.


So we begin by looking at Sony Pictures Classics.


SPC has historically been the largest distribution presence at Telluride for more than a decade and it's really not even close.  No other company has as long and consistent track record of having films selected for The SHOW program as Sony Pictures Classics.

Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 13 years:


2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)

It was truly weird to see SPC with only one film on the Telluride list last year.  It's just uncharacteristic for a company that has averaged around five films at TFF over the past decade-plus. I suspect that last year will prove to be an anomaly and that SPC will be back to Telluride with a larger set of films.  Perhaps not the five that they have averaged, however.

So, what does SPC have and will those films play at Telluride?

According to IMDb these are the films that SPC currently has in place for distribution that seem most likely:

Elle

Julieta

The Red Turtle

Toni Erdmann

  

All four of these films played Cannes in May.

Any other SPC films scheduled for 2016 have already opened or played Sundance.

My expectations are very high on both The Red Turtle and Toni Erdmann.  I had them on last Friday's first Ten Bets list for this year at #8 and #3 respectively.

Both Elle and Julieta could make the TFF #43 lineup as well but I feel both are less likely. Alomdovar hasn't had a film play TFF since 2006's Volver and despite Elle's critical reception at Cannes, which was very good, I still can't bring myself to buy into a Paul Verhoeven film at T-ride. Maybe I'm just a snob.

As to Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle...I feel relatively confident that their critical reception at Cannes  makes them likely .

Toni Erdmann trailer with English subs via YouTube

Chances for each:

Toni Erdmann-80%

The Red Turtle-80%

Elle- 50%

Julieta-25%

Tomorrow a look at Sundance Selects/IFC Films.

WELLS GIVES US HINTS

I was looking through some posts here and there over the weekend and ran across two recent entries from Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere that give serious insight to at least one potential Telluride selection and maybe two.

First, in a post from June 20 titled Open Letter to Personal Shopper Loyalists Wells reveals that he has been told that TFF's directors weren't that keen on the film.  Quoting now from the post:

"...two or three days ago Tom Luddy and Julie Huntsinger of the Telluride Film Festival were telling me how they didn't care for it (Personal Shopper)".

Taken at face value, it seems that we aren't probably going to see that film at the Labor Day soiree in Telluride.

The complete post is here:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/06/open-letter-to-personal-shopper-loyalists/

Additionally, in a post from HE on June 24 titled I Wasn't Much, Now I Feel Differently Wells talks about Ewan McGregor's directing debut American Pastoral.  The film was featured here on MTFB last week when it released its first trailer.

Wells suggests that the film might be Telluride material at the end of his piece.  I hadn't even had it really on my radar until last week's look.  Now I'm thinking that it's a real possibility.  

The Wells mention, the fact that it's under the Lionsgate banner for distribution...which doesn't make it a lock but also doesn't rule it out...the fact that Kris Tapley (InContention/Variety) mentioned last week on Twitter that he's "Been hearing this was amazing since like March" and that it "Could be a real surprise later this season."  Finally, the film is slated to open on Oct. 21st which would certainly allow for plays at any of the big fall fests : Telluride, Venice, Toronto, New York.

As of this post, I'm warming to the notion that American Pastoral is a now a real candidate for Telluride inclusion.

American Pastoral trailer via YouTube

Wells speculation is here:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/06/i-wasnt-expecting-much-now-i-feel-differently/

OSIASON UPDATES HIS PREDICTIONS

Tower poster from IMDb

Last week I posted Telluride predictions from film fan and expert prognosticator Jason Osiason. Since then Jason has added a couple of films to his "Likely" for Telluride list.  His original list looked like this:

20th Century Women
Aquarius
Arrival
Bleed for This
Elle
Fire at Sea
Loving
Manchester-by-the -Sea
Moonlight
Risk
The Eagle Huntress
The Red Turtle
The Salesman
Things to Come
Toni Erdmann
Wilson
How to Talk to Girls at Parties

He also lists as "possible":

Good Time
My Life as a Courgette (just won the top prize at the Annecy Fest)
Neruda
Nocturnal Animals
The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez
The Meyerowitz Stories
The Son of Joseph
The Mercy
Birth of a Nation
Girl on a Train

Since that post, Osiason has communicated that he also feels that Andrea Arnold's American Honey is likely as is Keith Maitland's Tower.

That's a wrap for this Monday.  Tune in again tomorrow as I take a look at what Sundance Selects and IFC have that could make a play at this year's SHOW.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

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The Day Has Come; First "Ten Bets" for TFF#43 / Two Outside Shots with Trailers

Good Friday everyone...

THE DAY HAS COME: THE FIRST "TEN BETS" FOR TFF #43

A couple of notes...

First, this will be the sixth year of the "Ten Bets" and on average this first list will name approximately six films that will actually be on the TFF #43 lineup when it's announced on Sept. 1. The best initial Ten Bets was the first in 2011 which git eight titles correct.  The worst was actually last year;s when only four films on the very first list made the T-ride lineup.

Also, keep in mind that I'll have weekly updates and the prognostication success rate gets better the closer we get to the Festival.

Third, if you've been reading much of the blog since the Oscars ended, the first Ten Bets won't/shouldn't be much of a surprise.

And finally, as David Letterman used to be fond of saying, "No wagering."

Here's the Ten Bets from MTFB on the last Friday in June, 2016 (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

Close: Things to Come, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Journey Through French Cinema and Salt and Fire.



TWO OUTSIDE SHOTS WITH TRAILERS

We had appearances yesterday for trailers for two films that have a slim chance of making this year's SHOW.  You'll notice that neither is on the above "Ten Bets" list nor the additional films that I have labeled as "close".  Nevertheless, both films could find their way into the Telluride lineup.

Christian Puiu's Sieranevada, which was critically very well received at Cannes in May dropped a trailer with french subtitles.  You can see that here thanks to YouTube:

This is the story from The Film Stage that reported the trailer's release:

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/travel-to-sieranevada-in-first-trailer-for-cristi-puius-cannes-drama/


Also appearing yesterday was a trailer for Ewan McGregor's directing debut, an adaptation of Philip Roth's American Pastoral.

The film is set for an Oct. 21 limited release and is in the distribution hands of Lionsgate.  Here's its trailer from YouTube:

Here are some posts from that reported the trailer's release yesterday:

http://theplaylist.net/ewan-mcgregor-gets-philip-roth-first-trailer-american-pastoral-20160623/

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/ewan-mcgregor-makes-directorial-debut-in-trailer-for-philip-roth-adaptation-american-pastoral/


http://www.indiewire.com/2016/06/american-pastoral-trailer-ewan-mcgregor-jennifer-connelly-dakota-fanning-1201692383/

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/06/23/ewan-mcgregor-american-pastoral-trailer

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...