The Day Has Come; First "Ten Bets" for TFF#43 / Two Outside Shots with Trailers

Good Friday everyone...

THE DAY HAS COME: THE FIRST "TEN BETS" FOR TFF #43

A couple of notes...

First, this will be the sixth year of the "Ten Bets" and on average this first list will name approximately six films that will actually be on the TFF #43 lineup when it's announced on Sept. 1. The best initial Ten Bets was the first in 2011 which git eight titles correct.  The worst was actually last year;s when only four films on the very first list made the T-ride lineup.

Also, keep in mind that I'll have weekly updates and the prognostication success rate gets better the closer we get to the Festival.

Third, if you've been reading much of the blog since the Oscars ended, the first Ten Bets won't/shouldn't be much of a surprise.

And finally, as David Letterman used to be fond of saying, "No wagering."

Here's the Ten Bets from MTFB on the last Friday in June, 2016 (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

Close: Things to Come, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Journey Through French Cinema and Salt and Fire.



TWO OUTSIDE SHOTS WITH TRAILERS

We had appearances yesterday for trailers for two films that have a slim chance of making this year's SHOW.  You'll notice that neither is on the above "Ten Bets" list nor the additional films that I have labeled as "close".  Nevertheless, both films could find their way into the Telluride lineup.

Christian Puiu's Sieranevada, which was critically very well received at Cannes in May dropped a trailer with french subtitles.  You can see that here thanks to YouTube:

This is the story from The Film Stage that reported the trailer's release:

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/travel-to-sieranevada-in-first-trailer-for-cristi-puius-cannes-drama/


Also appearing yesterday was a trailer for Ewan McGregor's directing debut, an adaptation of Philip Roth's American Pastoral.

The film is set for an Oct. 21 limited release and is in the distribution hands of Lionsgate.  Here's its trailer from YouTube:

Here are some posts from that reported the trailer's release yesterday:

http://theplaylist.net/ewan-mcgregor-gets-philip-roth-first-trailer-american-pastoral-20160623/

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/ewan-mcgregor-makes-directorial-debut-in-trailer-for-philip-roth-adaptation-american-pastoral/


http://www.indiewire.com/2016/06/american-pastoral-trailer-ewan-mcgregor-jennifer-connelly-dakota-fanning-1201692383/

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/06/23/ewan-mcgregor-american-pastoral-trailer

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Cannes Prizes Announced / The Critics and Cannes / Cannes and TFF #43

Good Monday world...

CANNES PRIZES ANNOUNCED

I, Daniel Blake from Screen Daily

Palme d'Or: I, Daniel Blake
Grand Prix: It's Only the End of the World
Jury: American Honey
Director: Tie- Mungiu/Graduation and Assayas/Personal Shopper
Screenplay: The Salesman
Actress: Jaclyn Jose/Ma' Rosa
Actor: Shahab Hosseini/The Salesman

Analysis:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/cannes-awards-wrap-george-miller-jury-winners-mads-mikkelsen-20160522

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-i-daniel-blake-wins-895315

http://www.indiewire.com/article/cannes-2016-award-winners-list-palme-dor

THE CRITICS AND CANNES

The critics loved Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann and hated Sean Penn's The Last Face.  Everything else fell somewhere between those two.  Here's the critical consensus.

Beginning with the massive critical collation from Reini Urban who collects the Cannes critical response from a vast number of sources (including two listed below).  Some sources include: Screen Daily, Ioncinema, Metacritic and Indiewire.

The top five from Urban:

1) Toni Erdmann (8.24)
2) Elle (7.94)
3) Sieranevada (7.35-tie)
43 Paterson (7.35-tie)
5) Aquarius (7.18)

The three biggest bombs: The Last Face, From The Land of the Moon, and It's Only the End of the World.

Urban also has collected critical responses for films playing in other sections for the festival.  The top films from Un Certain Regard were: Hell or High Water, The Red Turtle and After the Storm.

Urban's compilation is here:

http://cannes-rurban.rhcloud.com/2016

Meanwhile, Todas Las Criticas compiles over 40 critical responses to Cannes.  Their top five films were:

1) Elle (8.87)
2) Sieranevada (8.46)
3) Toni Erdmann (8.21)
4) Paterson (7.98)
5) Aquarius (7.64)

Bombs: The Last Face, and It's Only the End of the World and From the Land of the Moon.

The complete Todas Las Criticas chart is here:

http://www.todaslascriticas.com.ar/cannes/2016

UCR high score: The Long Night of Francisco Sanctis, Hell or High Water and The Red Turtle.

From Screen Daily which was focused on the Palme competition films:

1) Toni Erdmann (3.7)
2) Paterson (3.5)
3) Graduation (3.0-tie)
3) Sieranevada (3.0-tie)
3) Elle (3.0-tie)

Bombs: The Last Face, It's Only the End of the World and The Neon Demon

The complete Screen Daily chart is here:

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/cannes-sean-penns-the-last-face-sets-jury-grid-low/5104244.article


And from Ioncinema-which also focuses exclusively on the films in competition for the Palme d'Or:

1) Toni Erdmann (4.0)
2) Aquarius (3.6-tie)
2) Elle (3.6 -tie)
4) Paterson (3.5)
5) Graduation (3.4-tie)
5) Slack Bay (3.4-tie)

Bombs: The Last Face, Ma Rosa and From the Land of the Moon.

In Thursday's post I'll spend some time analyzing this year's disconnect between the critics and the jury.  I'll also look back at the past several Cannes to see how anomalous this year was or if it was an anomaly at all.


CANNES AND TFF #43

As we assess what has happened in France over the last couple of weeks in the context of what it means (if anything) for the lineup of films the make The SHOW on Sept. 2-5 remember that over the last 10 years that an average of 7-8 (7.5 to be exact) films double between Cannes and Telluride.  Of that number and average of 4.1 come from the main competition slate and 1.2 from Un Certain Regard.  The remaining 2.2 come from other sections of the festival.

Films that seem to have become very likely Telluride plays: Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle.  Their critical reception plus acquisition by both films for U.S. distribution by Sony Pictures Classics make them likely additions to The SHOW.

Films that seemed like they had some Telluride chops that took a turn for the worst include Sean Penn's critically pilloried The Last Face, Xavier Dolan's poorly received It's Only the End of the World and Nicole Garcia's From the Land of the Moon.

Films that seemed hot prospects for Telluride that now seem a little less hot are Olivier Assayas' Personal Shopper, Asgahr Farhadi's The Salesman and The Dardennes Brothers The Unknown Girl, though the awarding of prizes to both Salesman and Personal Shopper may keep them warm enough to make the lineup.

Other T-ride possibles that seem to have neither increased nor decreased their status are Cristian Mungiu's Graduation (formerly Family Photos) and Jeff Nichol's Loving.

In addition to The Red Turtle from the UCR segment, David Mackenzie's Hell or High Water (once called Comancheria) seems to have scored a significant reception and certainly stays in the T-ride convo.

More about all of this in Thursday's post.

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Warren's Coming Nov. 11 and the Rules Don't Apply / Checking the Critics at Cannes / The Salesman Makes a Sale / Views from Cannes / Latebreaking: The Red Turtle Goes to SPC

Welcome to Thursday from Michael's Telluride Film Blog...



WARREN'S COMING ON NOV. 11 AND THE RULES DON'T APPLY

Warren Beatty as Howard Hughes in Rules Don't Apply (from Entertainment Weekly)

Taking a break from the incessant Cannes coverage (at least until a little bit later in this post) news splashed across the internet yesterday that the long-awaited Warren Beatty "Untitled Howard Hughes Project" has both a title and a release date.

The title: Rules Don't Apply
The date: Nov. 11, 2016.

The film has been something of a hit-or-miss obsession here at MTFB.

The Nov. 11 date would be perfect timing for plays at fests like Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  However, remember that Beatty is reported to sluiced cold water all over that notion in a ShowBiz411 story back in the middle of April.

I wrote at the time that Beatty might be bluffing.  His personality as such that I wouldn't be surprised if he responded that fall fests were unlikely simply as a way of having some fun with the press.

Additionally, there appears to be some negative buzz about the films quality and rumors that it was even possibly turned down by Cannes.

Finally, 20th Century Fox is distributing and they have virtually zero history with Telluride save for releases through their Fox Searchlight division.

All of which leads one to believe that the chances that we'll see Rules Don't Apply at T-ride are ridiculously small.  No Warren Beatty Tribute seems in the offing.

Still, the whole thing is fascinating...

Here's a bunch of links of the coverage from yesterday, most of which stemmed from an original story from Entertainment Weekly:


http://www.ew.com/article/2016/05/18/warren-beatty-howard-hughes

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/warren-beatty-howard-hughes-movie-release-date-1201778002/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/rules-dont-apply-pictures-warren-beatty-film-lily-collins-alden-ehrenreich-20160518

https://thefilmstage.com/news/first-look-at-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply-starring-alden-ehrenreich-and-lily-collins/

http://www.hitfix.com/motion-captured/rules-dont-apply-to-the-long-rumored-howard-hughes-film-by-warren-beatty



CHECKING THE CRITICS AT CANNES

As we make the turn toward the last few days of the Cannes Fest (it closes on Sunday)...here's what the various critic collectives have told us seem to be the consensus quality films in competition for the Palme d'Or

Screen Daily critics panel says the top three films thus far are (ratings are on a 0-4 scale):

1) Toni Erdmann 3.7
2) Paterson 3.5
3) Aquarius 3.1
Just outside: Sieranevada

Ioncinema's critics panel top three (using a 0-5 scale)

1) Toni Erdmann 4.0
2) Aquarius 3.6
3) Paterson 3.5
Close: Loving and Slack Bay

Todas Las Criticas top three (on a scale of 1-10)

1) Sieranevada 8.38
2) Toni Erdmann 8.21
3) Paterson 7.97
Close: Aquarius

Reini Urban Collation (scale of 1-10)

1) Toni Erdmann 8.23
2) Paterson 7.41
3) Sieranevada 7.33
Close: Aquarius

Check the current critical line for all of the films playing in competition and in the rest of the Cannes Fest at these links:

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/cannes-aquarius-debuts-strongly-on-screen-jury-grid/5104129.article

http://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2016-cannes-critics-panel-day-8-brillante-mendozas-slumdog-manila-in-ma-rosa

http://www.todaslascriticas.com.ar/cannes/2016

http://cannes-rurban.rhcloud.com/2016


So...what films win the Palme and other prizes?


THE SALESMAN MAKES A SALE

Ahead of its World and Cannes premiere as the last film in the Palme d'Or competition, Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman has picked up distribution for the United States.  Amazon and The Cohen Media Group have teamed up to take the distrib rights for the film.

That's a departure for Farhadi whose Academy Award winning A Separation and The Past were both distributed by Sony Pictures Classics.  SPC had both of those films make the T-ride lineup.

Despite the switch of distributor, however, I suspect that the sake yesterday doesn't diminish the film's chances of making kits way to the San Juans on Labor Day weekend.  The Cohen group had the largest distrib presence at Telluride last year with three films in the SHOW: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite and Rams.  Additionally, I'm already on record having said that I expect that Amazon will follow the trail blazed by Netflix last year and have some presence at Telluride this year.  The Salesman seems made to order.

Here's coverage of the sale:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/cannes-amazon-cohen-media-group-nab-asghar-farhadis-the-salesman-1201777693/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-amazon-cohen-media-take-895317


VIEWS FROM CANNES

A collection of clips, teasers and trailers that have dropped for films playing at Cannes:

Personal Shopper:

via YouTube

http://www.indiewire.com/article/personal-shopper-trailer-kristen-stewart-ghosts-olivier-assayas-cannes-2016-20160517

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/kristen-stewart-sees-a-ghost-in-first-trailer-for-olivier-assayas-personal-shopper/


The Unknown Girl:

https://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-first-trio-of-clips-for-dardennes-cannes-drama-the-unknown-girl/



American Honey:

https://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-first-clip-and-full-cannes-press-conference-for-andrea-arnolds-american-honey/


Dog Eat Dog:

via YouTube

https://thefilmstage.com/news/new-images-and-clips-from-paul-schraders-dog-eat-dog-starring-nicolas-cage-and-willem-dafoe/


LATE BREAKING: THE RED TURTLE GOES TO SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

News very early this morning is that Sony Pictures Classics has acquired the very well received Cannes animated film The Red Turtle.  The film is currently sitting with a 6.32 composite critics score which is fourth best among Un Certain Regard films that have screened in France thus far.

The SPC acquisitions places The Red Turtle into the Telluride conversation in a big way.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-sony-pictures-classics-takes-895659

http://www.thewrap.com/sony-classics-buys-animated-movie-the-red-turtle/

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