Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
A quick reminder: Toronto announces their first wave of films one week from today and Venice will be right behind them two days later. We'll get our first real hard data about what could be playing over Labor Day weekend...
THE EURO PRODUCERS: THE FRENCH-FRANCE 2 CINEMA
Here are the films from France 2 Cinema that have played Telluride in recent years:
2006: Indigenes
2009: A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2012: Rust and Bone
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days One Night,
2015: No film
After no TFF #42 appearance, France 2's only real shot at a Telluride play in 2016 seems to be Paul Verhoeven's Elle which I have slowly warmed to as a real Telluride possibility.
THE UNKNOWN GIRL GETS A NEW TRAILER
Many sources reported the appearance of a new trailer yesterday for Telluride stalwarts The Dardenne Brothers' latest film The Unknown Girl. Here it is from YouTube:
I have been including this film in my TFF #43 thinking for a long time simply because The Dardennes are such regulars of the Cannes to Telluride connection. But...the critical response at Cannes made me step back a bit. Ad today, the new trailer's drop was also tweeted out by the Toronto Fest. I have to wonder if that is significant.
Odds are still in the favor of The Unknown Girl playing Telluride but it is not the slam dunk easy prediction that Two Days One Night was.
And finally, after being teased by Variety/InContention's Kristopher Tapley early last week, we found out that Fox 2000 has dated the release of their new film, Hidden Figures, for late December. Does that mean it's an awards player? Does it's move into pre-2017 mean we should consider it for Telluride? Probably not...but you never know. Here's the news about Hidden Figures, a true story of African American women who made a huge contribution to the early U.S. space program.
Octavia Spencer, Taraji P. Henson and Kevin Costner star. Here's the IMDb entry for the film:
I had been thinking the last week or so that Open Road might be planning to drop Oliver Stone's Snowden at TFF #43 especially after the announcement of its European Premiere at the San Sebastien Film Fest opening Sept.16. The film also opens in the U.S. on that date. BUT...we found out yesterday from The Hollywood Reporter that the film will be "secretly" screened at Comic Con which would seem to move it out of T-ride consideration due to Telluride's North American premiere policy.
Each year at about this time I begin to break down three categories of film makers to look at the most probable of Telluride Film Fest lineup choices. Those categories being Overseas Producers, The "Usual Suspects"...people with a very clear history with the fest and Distirbutors.
Today I begin the breakdown of distribution companies that have had films play at Telluride. It's worth noting that not every film that makes the lineup each year has a distribution deal in place when it screens in Telluride but most do and by looking at a distribs past record and what they have in their stable, we can try to make some educated guesses about what films might make the trip to southwest Colorado over the Labor Day weekend.
So we begin by looking at Sony Pictures Classics.
SPC has historically been the largest distribution presence at Telluride for more than a decade and it's really not even close. No other company has as long and consistent track record of having films selected for The SHOW program as Sony Pictures Classics.
Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 13 years:
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
It was truly weird to see SPC with only one film on the Telluride list last year. It's just uncharacteristic for a company that has averaged around five films at TFF over the past decade-plus. I suspect that last year will prove to be an anomaly and that SPC will be back to Telluride with a larger set of films. Perhaps not the five that they have averaged, however.
So, what does SPC have and will those films play at Telluride?
According to IMDb these are the films that SPC currently has in place for distribution that seem most likely:
Elle
Julieta
The Red Turtle
Toni Erdmann
All four of these films played Cannes in May.
Any other SPC films scheduled for 2016 have already opened or played Sundance.
My expectations are very high on both The Red Turtle and Toni Erdmann. I had them on last Friday's first Ten Bets list for this year at #8 and #3 respectively.
Both Elle and Julieta could make the TFF #43 lineup as well but I feel both are less likely. Alomdovar hasn't had a film play TFF since 2006's Volver and despite Elle's critical reception at Cannes, which was very good, I still can't bring myself to buy into a Paul Verhoeven film at T-ride. Maybe I'm just a snob.
As to Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle...I feel relatively confident that their critical reception at Cannes makes them likely .
Toni Erdmann trailer with English subs via YouTube
Chances for each:
Toni Erdmann-80%
The Red Turtle-80%
Elle- 50%
Julieta-25%
Tomorrow a look at Sundance Selects/IFC Films.
WELLS GIVES US HINTS
I was looking through some posts here and there over the weekend and ran across two recent entries from Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere that give serious insight to at least one potential Telluride selection and maybe two.
First, in a post from June 20 titled Open Letter to Personal Shopper Loyalists Wells reveals that he has been told that TFF's directors weren't that keen on the film. Quoting now from the post:
"...two or three days ago Tom Luddy and Julie Huntsinger of the Telluride Film Festival were telling me how they didn't care for it (Personal Shopper)".
Taken at face value, it seems that we aren't probably going to see that film at the Labor Day soiree in Telluride.
Additionally, in a post from HE on June 24 titled I Wasn't Much, Now I Feel Differently Wells talks about Ewan McGregor's directing debut American Pastoral. The film was featured here on MTFB last week when it released its first trailer.
Wells suggests that the film might be Telluride material at the end of his piece. I hadn't even had it really on my radar until last week's look. Now I'm thinking that it's a real possibility.
The Wells mention, the fact that it's under the Lionsgate banner for distribution...which doesn't make it a lock but also doesn't rule it out...the fact that Kris Tapley (InContention/Variety) mentioned last week on Twitter that he's "Been hearing this was amazing since like March" and that it "Could be a real surprise later this season." Finally, the film is slated to open on Oct. 21st which would certainly allow for plays at any of the big fall fests : Telluride, Venice, Toronto, New York.
As of this post, I'm warming to the notion that American Pastoral is a now a real candidate for Telluride inclusion.
Last week I posted Telluride predictions from film fan and expert prognosticator Jason Osiason. Since then Jason has added a couple of films to his "Likely" for Telluride list. His original list looked like this:
20th Century Women
Aquarius
Arrival
Bleed for This
Elle
Fire at Sea
Loving
Manchester-by-the -Sea
Moonlight
Risk
The Eagle Huntress
The Red Turtle
The Salesman
Things to Come
Toni Erdmann
Wilson
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
He also lists as "possible":
Good Time
My Life as a Courgette (just won the top prize at the Annecy Fest)
Neruda
Nocturnal Animals
The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez
The Meyerowitz Stories
The Son of Joseph
The Mercy
Birth of a Nation
Girl on a Train
Since that post, Osiason has communicated that he also feels that Andrea Arnold's American Honey is likely as is Keith Maitland's Tower.
That's a wrap for this Monday. Tune in again tomorrow as I take a look at what Sundance Selects and IFC have that could make a play at this year's SHOW.
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Nocturnal Animal stars Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal via MovieWeb
News this week that Tom Ford's sophomore directorial effort, Nocturnal Animals, will be released in November. Telluride fans might want to take notice. The film is being distributed by Focus Features (which we already are eyeballing because they're also distributing Jeff Nichols' Loving). I really do expect Focus is likely to try to play Telluride and up until now that meant a play for Loving. This dating of the release for Nocturnal Animals might change that calculus.
Additionally, a couple of the stories in the Big Time Press say that Telluride regular Laura Linney is in the cast, which might boost its T-ride profile. However, a late check of Ms. Linney's IMDb credits shows no such affiliation with the film. Can anyone clear that up?
Last Thursday I put up a ranking of all 21 Cannes Palme competition entries in the order of what I think their probability of playing The SHOW. But as you know, not all films that make the crossover from Cannes to Telluride are Palme competition films. On average (over the last 10 years) one film from the Un Certain Regard section will double the two fests and another 2.2 films will come from other segments; Directors Fortnight or Special Screenings for example.
Based on directors, critical response, past Telluride plays and/or distributors, these ten films seem to me to be the most likely candidates for those 3-4 spots:
My best guess at the order of likelihood:
The Red Turtle
Hell or High Water
Dog Eat Dog
Neruda
Exil
Risk
Peshmerga
Endless Poetry
After the Storm
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Tha's a wrap for Memorial Day...more on Thursday...when I'll begin the summer posting schedule of Monday through Friday.
Palme d'Or: I, Daniel Blake
Grand Prix: It's Only the End of the World
Jury: American Honey
Director: Tie- Mungiu/Graduation and Assayas/Personal Shopper
Screenplay: The Salesman
Actress: Jaclyn Jose/Ma' Rosa
Actor: Shahab Hosseini/The Salesman
The critics loved Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann and hated Sean Penn's The Last Face. Everything else fell somewhere between those two. Here's the critical consensus.
Beginning with the massive critical collation from Reini Urban who collects the Cannes critical response from a vast number of sources (including two listed below). Some sources include: Screen Daily, Ioncinema, Metacritic and Indiewire.
The top five from Urban:
1) Toni Erdmann (8.24)
2) Elle (7.94)
3) Sieranevada (7.35-tie)
43 Paterson (7.35-tie)
5) Aquarius (7.18)
The three biggest bombs: The Last Face, From The Land of the Moon, and It's Only the End of the World.
Urban also has collected critical responses for films playing in other sections for the festival. The top films from Un Certain Regard were: Hell or High Water, The Red Turtle and After the Storm.
And from Ioncinema-which also focuses exclusively on the films in competition for the Palme d'Or:
1) Toni Erdmann (4.0)
2) Aquarius (3.6-tie)
2) Elle (3.6 -tie)
4) Paterson (3.5)
5) Graduation (3.4-tie)
5) Slack Bay (3.4-tie)
Bombs: The Last Face, Ma Rosa and From the Land of the Moon.
In Thursday's post I'll spend some time analyzing this year's disconnect between the critics and the jury. I'll also look back at the past several Cannes to see how anomalous this year was or if it was an anomaly at all.
CANNES AND TFF #43
As we assess what has happened in France over the last couple of weeks in the context of what it means (if anything) for the lineup of films the make The SHOW on Sept. 2-5 remember that over the last 10 years that an average of 7-8 (7.5 to be exact) films double between Cannes and Telluride. Of that number and average of 4.1 come from the main competition slate and 1.2 from Un Certain Regard. The remaining 2.2 come from other sections of the festival.
Films that seem to have become very likely Telluride plays: Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle. Their critical reception plus acquisition by both films for U.S. distribution by Sony Pictures Classics make them likely additions to The SHOW.
Films that seemed like they had some Telluride chops that took a turn for the worst include Sean Penn's critically pilloried The Last Face, Xavier Dolan's poorly received It's Only the End of the World and Nicole Garcia's From the Land of the Moon.
Films that seemed hot prospects for Telluride that now seem a little less hot are Olivier Assayas' Personal Shopper, Asgahr Farhadi's The Salesman and The Dardennes Brothers The Unknown Girl, though the awarding of prizes to both Salesman and Personal Shopper may keep them warm enough to make the lineup.
Other T-ride possibles that seem to have neither increased nor decreased their status are Cristian Mungiu's Graduation (formerly Family Photos) and Jeff Nichol's Loving.
In addition to The Red Turtle from the UCR segment, David Mackenzie's Hell or High Water (once called Comancheria) seems to have scored a significant reception and certainly stays in the T-ride convo.
The 69th Cannes Film Fest opened with great fanfare and the screening of the latest film from Woody Allen, Cafe Society. For the next week and a half, we'll be parsing the critical reactions out of France as well as the films that win prizes on May 22nd as we try to divine clues to any and all films that might make their way from the Croisette to the San Juans. Stay tuned...it should be fun.
MORE VIEWS FROM FILMS IN FRANCE
The P.R. onslaught has continued unabated this week for Cannes films that will be making their premieres in the next few days. Those that seem, at least to me, to have some Telluride potential that revealed some of themselves this week included:
A trailer for Pablo Larrain's Neruda:
Neruda trailer via YouTube
Here's coverage of the Neruda trailer release from the newly situated Playlist.net:
A couple of notes about news that came to light yesterday...
Sony Pictures Classics has acquired North American rights to Paul Verhoven's Cannes competition
piece, Elle, starring Isabelle Huppert. The SPC but makes Elle a film worth keeping an eye on for Labor Day. Normally I wouldn't have thought about a Verhoven film for T-ride but the SPC presence changes the equation.
Reports from The Hollywood Reporter and Indiewire:
And, the release yesterday of a trailer for Mira Nair's Queen of Katwe made us take note. It gets some Telluride consideration because of Nair's presence as its director and her past appearances at The SHOW (The Namesake, Salaam Bombay). Additionally, the film is set for a Telluride friendly Sept. 23 and although its distributor, Disney, doesn't have a great Telluride presence, they have had recent T-ride appearances with animated films: The Wind Rises, Paperman, Get a Horse.
