Ten Bets 2019 #2 / Country Music at the Ryman / Focusing on Toronto and Venice

The first week of July comes to and...




TEN BETS 2019 #2

Well, a week has gone by and there is a bit of movement and shuffling regarding the Ten Bets.

Here's what the first installment looked like a week ago:


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


And here is the latest Ten Bets...

10) Jojo Rabbit
9) The Good Liar
8) Nomadland
7) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
6) The Climb
5) Little Women
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Varda by Agnes
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.



COUNTRY MUSIC AT THE RYMAN

We've been following the growing anticipation for Ken Burn's newest documentary on the history and reach of country music in America.  We have known that the 8 part series will kick off on PBS on Sept. 15th.  I have been thinking for some time that we'd have a good chance to see some of the doc at TFF #45.  Now, I have a guess as to how that will happen and what form it might take.

I knew that the Doc's crew had recorded an evening of performances and reminiscences at The Ryman Auditorium (home of The Grand Ole Opry) in Nashville on March 27th.  I had assumed some of that footage would make its way into the doc and perhaps it will.  What I also discovered over the last day or two is that PBS is going to air the concert on Sept. 8th-a week before the full doc hits the network.

So, my guess at this point is that Telluride attendees have the chance the concert footage during Labor Day weekend.

I tumbled across the news in an article describing the concert from SoulCountry.net.  That article, which is fairly detailed in its description of the evening, is linked here.



FOCUSING ON TORONTO AND VENICE

I was reminded in a couple of places since Tuesday's post that we will begin to get some very serious insight as o films and which fests will have what in less that three weeks now.  Toronto makes the first of its multiple announcements on June 23rd.  That set of films will give us clues in terms of which films we've been tracking will likely play Telluride first and which ones won't play TFF at all.  It's not a comprehensive list, however as the Toronto organizers will continue to roll out new announced films the four weeks following their initial announcement on June 23rd.

Venice announces on June 25th.  Over the past few years, the Venetian announcement has served as a flag for films that could still play both in Venice and Telluride.  Last year as astounding nine films shared screenings in both places.  We'll get more clues about what this year's group of films that will be shared when Venice announces its actual screening schedule.

Stay tuned...


That's MTFB for the Fifth of July 2019.  I'll have more on Monday.



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First Ten Bets for 2019 / The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part One / Variety's 31 Flavors of Oscar

Your final Friday of June has arrived...

FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2019

Well, it's here.

My very first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46.

I've been posting my guesses predictions for Telluride in this format since 2011.  Some years I have a better track record than others with the initial stab.  My track record throughout the years on the first Ten Bets looks like this:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner.  But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.

Other films that I listed on 2018's "just under the Ten Bets" that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.

Last year's half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.'

And so with that as a backdrop...drumroll please...here's your first Ten Bets for TFF #46


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


I'll be updating the Ten Bets each Friday for the rest of the summer and, as has become my custom, it will expand as we move through time.  Ultimately the final Ten Bets will come on Wednesday, August 28th with up to 25 films that I will predict or deduce that will make the TFF #46 lineup.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART ONE

Casting a glance today at smaller distribution houses and the films that they have that could make the Telluride program:

-COHEN MEDIA GROUP

This company is a consistent T-ride player.  Its history:

2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack


So what's in the CMG larder:

Safy Nebbou's Berlin hit Who You Think I Am.  The film focuses on a 50 year old woman (Juliette Binoche) who creates a fake social media profile.

At the moment, it seems to be the only film CMG has but don't discount the possibility that they'll acquire a film this summer that might also make the lineup.


-KINO LORBER

Another group that has been a frequent entrant in Telluride's fest.  Kino Lorber's track record:

2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain


After five straight years with at least one film in play at TFF, Kino Lorber was absent last year.  They could return- and have a good chance to do so, this year with a film that scored well at the Berlin International Film Festival. 

Nadav Lapid's Synonyms won the top prize, the Golden Bear, last February.  It has played a bunch of international fests since then.

IMDb describes the film as " A young Israeli man absconds to Paris to escape his nationality, aided by his trusty Franco-Israeli dictionary.


-IFC FILMS

IFC also has, at least for the moment, a single film that seems possible for T-ride and that is Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.   Described as a film that focuses on the stormy reunion between a daughter and her mother who is an actress involved in a sci-fi film in which she plays a woman who never ages.

After Kore-eda's stellar run in 2018 with Shoplifters which played TFF #45, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes  and was Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language film, you have to think that The Truth would be under real consideration for a return to Telluride for the director.


Chances for today's batch of films:

Synonyms 50%
The Truth 50%
Who You Think I Am 40%

I'll have a look at some of the other smaller distribution outfits on Monday.


VARIETY'S 31 FLAVORS OF OSCAR

Variety's Tim Gray posted a lengthy piece on Tuesday called "Oscar: 31 Upcoming Films that Could Enter the Awards Race". 

There are actually more than 31.
 when you look at all the lists and categorizations.

As you might expect, a slew of potential T-ride selections are on his various category lists.

Among the possible T-ride players that Gray includes are (in the order he lists them):

Untitled Jay Roach Fox News Project
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Little Women
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Laundromat
The Pope
Atlantics
Untitled Sally Potter Project (Molly)
Jojo Rabbit
The Woman in the Window
Joker...yea, I said it.
Motherless Brooklyn
The Good Liar
1917
Against All Enemies
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
Les Miserables
The Lighthouse
Lucy in the Sky
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project


The complete article is linked here.


That's the Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Plus / The Irishman Ping Pong / The Good Liar Has a Trailer

Good Thursday World...


THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PLUS

...And by "Sony Plus" I mean their affiliated companies Columbia and TriStar

The Sony Pictures group also includes Sony Pictures Classics, but as it is Sony's indie branch, I have dealt with it separately in an earlier post (June 11th).

Columbia has the U.S. distribution for Greta Gerwig's Little Women and though Columbia has a thin resume with Telluride, it's not invisible having just screened Jason Reitman's The Front Runner and Yann Damange's White Boy Rick last year at TFF #45.  In both cases, the director had previous work at Telluride.  Reitman a lot.

So the Gerwig connection could prove as potent this year after her success at Telluride with Lady Bird (2017- five Oscar nominations including Best Picture).  TFF also loved her as a guest as the star of Noah Baumbach's Frances Ha in 2012.


Meanwhile, the other Sony affiliate that has a film in the discussion for Telluride is Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as  children's television icon Fred Rogers.  Despite zero history between TriStar and TFF, Heller's presence (and perhaps Hanks') makes me think that it could be a consideration.  Last year Heller had a nifty run with Can You Ever Forgive Me? with that film debuting at Telluride and earning three Oscar nominations including one for Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress.

I'm currently putting their chances as:

Little Women 50%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 40%


Tomorrow, I'll take a look at a bunch of smaller specialty houses that have films in play.


THE IRISHMAN PING PONG

I'd pretty much reached the conclusion and reported that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman was off the books as far as Telluride was concerned and that hasn't changed.  The last couple of days, however, have been a funny back and forth as to whether it has a release date and an Indiewire story that flat says no fall film fests.

First the release date hoody-hoo.  A number of outlets reported on Tuesday that one of the film's producers, Irwin Winkler, was on record as saying that the film would have a Thanksgiving release.  That gave rise to some speculation that the film's visual effects might be done in time for Scorsese to screen it at the New York Film Fest (which has seemed like the natural landing place all along).

But Netflix and Scorsese reps strongly stated that there are still no firm release plans.

I have linked the updated stories about the release date ping pong here from The Playlist and for The Film Stage.

And here is the Anne Thompson story from Indiewire that flat says no Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.



THE GOOD LIAR HAS A TRAILER

Starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, Bill Condon's The Good Liar has been on my Telluride radar for a bit.  The film is set for release on Nov. 15th and is being domestically distributed by Warner Bros.

The film has McKellen as a con man and Mirren as his mark but things don't go according to his plans.

New Line Cinema dropped the first trailer for the film yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

It looks...good.

Condon is an Oscar winner for writing the screenplay for Gods and Monsters.  He also was nominated for Chicago.


The Good Liar's IMDb page is here.


That's your Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow including the season's first Ten Bets.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Warner Bros / The Aeronauts Flies Into the Conversation / Country Music Preview

I'm back.

I was in Dallas, Texas all of last week working as a part of the staff for the National Speech and Debate Association's National Speech Tournament.  It was good.

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: WARNER BROS.

This week I'm continuing to look at film production/distribution companies whose past record and current stash of films point to a possible choice for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.  Up until today's post I have been focused on specialty firms and streaming services.  Today is our first look at a major studio: Warner Bros.  Warners has, over the past half dozen years or so, made a mark on the festival. 

Here's their recent run at Telluride:

2018: No Show

2017: No Show

2016: Sully

2015 Black Mass

2014: No Show

2013: Gravity, Prisoners

2012: Argo

Warner Independent played Telluride in 2006 with Infamous and 2007 with Rails and Ties.

Last year Warners only likely Telluride play was A Star Is Born and we all know that didn't happen.

Despite not having a film at Telluride the past two years, 2019 could mark the return of the WB to the San Juans with four films that should be considered as possibles:

Bill Condon's The Good Liar starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren set for releases on Nov. 15th.  Condon has Telluride history (Kinsey-2004).

John Crowley's The Goldfinch starring Nicole Kidman and Ansel Elgort set for release Sept. 13th.  Crowley has Telluride history (Intermission-2003).

Edward Norton's Motherless Brooklyn starring Norton, Bruce Willis, Alec Baldwin and more.  It is set for release on Nov. 1.  Norton has no history with Telluride as a director - this is his second feature as a director- and I can't find any indication that Norton has been a guest of the fest in the past.  He has appeared in films that have played the festival: Birdman (2014), Frida (2002).  Also of note, Motherless Brooklyn is based on the novel by Jonathan Lethem who served as the fest's Guest Director last year.  That could be a signal.

Gavin O'Connor's Torrance (now reportedly renamed Long Time Coming) starring Ben Affleck as a former star athlete looking for redemption.  Affleck also acts as a producer for the film and his past success with Argo, which started its run to Oscar glory at Telluride, could make it a potential SHOW choice.

I honestly think any of the three could make the lineup and this could be the second time Warners lands more than a single film at TFF.

Chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Motherless Brooklyn 50%
The Good Liar 40%
Long Time Coming 25%



THE AERONAUTS

I posted my analysis for Amazon Studios Telluride chances on June 17th and in it,a film I didn't even mention is Tom Harper's The Aeronauts.

Couple of reasons for that:  Amazon is loaded with films that have a shot at Telluride and the film, which has a logline that reads like a straight thriller/action-adventure flick, just didn't seem like a film and director Tom Harper, to the best of my knowledge hasn't been near the festival in the past.

But after news this weekend, it seems that I may have miscalculated.

The International Film Critique Twitter account tweeted that:

If it were to be chosen to open Venice that means I definitely need to pay attention as a number of films that have been the Venice opener in recent years have then jumped to Telluride: Birdman, Gravity, La La Land, First Man, Downsizing.  So, should this be the choice for Venice, I'd better pay attention.

Adding fuel to the fuel to the fire was reporting from World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy.

Ruimy updated a fest-centric article from late May with news of The Aeronauts (as well as The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit).  That updated post is linked here.  Ruimy also posted a small blurb about the film yesterday suggesting he's thinking that it might make the T-ride lineup.  See that here.

Put The Aeronauts on the list that I originally published a week ago for Amazon Studios as follows:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35%
The Aeronauts 30%

COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW

PBS has released a 25 minute preview of Ken Burns' upcoming multi-party documentary : Country Music.  Here's a link that will get you to the preview:

Ken Burns' Country Music on PBS

I still believe there's a reasonable chance that TFF #46 attendees may be able to see at least part of the doc over Labor Day weekend.

That's a wrap for MTFB on this Monday.  More on its way to you tomorrow and coming FRIDAY...the first TFF #46 Ten Bets list of the summer!

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The DIstributors 2019: Focus Features / Apple Wants to Play / Soon to See The Good Liar

Good Tuesday everyone and here's your MTFB for the day.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: FOCUS FEATURES

Focus Features has had a very spotty record with Telluride over the years that I have been attending as you can see from the list below, Focus has been on the program five times since 2006:


2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

However, also note that Focus has played Telluride two years consecutively and three of the last four TFFs.  Additionally, Darkest Hour was very successful with its run two years ago with two Oscar wins including Gary Oldman for Best Actor and another four nominations including one for Best Picture.

I'd also guess that Focus was aiming/hoping for the same kind of success last year with Boy Erased.  That didn't happen as Oscar nominations didn't pan out, though Boy Erased was nominated for two Golden Globes.

Both films...as a matter of fact, I believe all five of these listed Focus Feature films first screened at Telluride.  Also, in most cases, the directors of the films had been involved with a film that had played Telluride previously.

Last year this is how I handicapped the possible Focus Feature films:

Everybody Knows 50%
Boy Erased 40%
On the Basis of Sex 40%
Mary Queen of Scots 40%

As to 2019, Focus has two films that might be possible.  Kasi Lemmons Harriet Tubman biopic starring Cynthia Ervio is one and Todd Haynes untitled film currently listed by IMDb as being in post-production since March is the other.

Mark Ruffalo takes the lead in the film as an attorney fighting corporate environmental malfeasance.  The film is based on a Nataniel Rich article from The New York Times Magazine in 2016.  The title Dry Run has been used in the past for this film. That article is linked here.

Lemmons played Eve's Bayou at T-ride in 1997.  Haynes has been a frequently programmed director with Carol, Wonderstruck and  I'm Not There.

There's an outside shot that Eliza Hittman's Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always gets some attention as well.

Focus also has the Downton Abbey film which opens Sept. 20th but seems an unlikely TFF choice.


Soooo...my percentages for Focus...

Harriet 50%
Haynes/Dry Run 50%
Never, Rarely 25%
Downton 10%

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Focus landed two films at Telluride this year.


APPLE WANTS TO PLAY

The New York Post reported yesterday that Apple wants to get into the theatrical release/Oscar game as they roll out their own streaming platform, Apple+.    Indiewire also carried the story.

Apple seems to be wanting to produce half a dozen small budget/high prestige fare with an eye toward awards season.

The Post's source is quoted in the article as saying that Apple aims to create "Focus Features-esque awards contenders" and specifically mentions BlacKkKlansman, Boy Erased and Dallas Buyers Club.

Of course, from my perspective, the questions that raises are: "Will Apple strive to compete for fall festival slots?" and, of course and specifically, "Will they make the attempt to get into Telluride?"

Seems like that will be really interesting to keep an eye on.


SOON TO SEE THE GOOD LIAR

Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren photo from The Good Liar via USA Today

Anton Volkov's Trailer Track website reported yesterday that we are soon to see a trailer for The Good Liar.  The film stars Helen Mirren and Ian McKellen.  The film is directed by Bill Condon and set for U.S. release on Nov. 15th.  It is being distributed by Warner Bros.

All of these factors make it a possible choice for Telluride.

Volkov says he expects the trailer online in the next 10 days or so and likely to be timed with next week's release of Danny Boyle's Yesterday.

In the film, McKellen plays an aging con artist and Mirren a well-to-do widow according to the film's IMDb web page.

Check out Volkov's post at this link.



That's a wrap for this Tuesday.  I'll have more on Thursday...


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