Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
...And by "Sony Plus" I mean their affiliated companies Columbia and TriStar
The Sony Pictures group also includes Sony Pictures Classics, but as it is Sony's indie branch, I have dealt with it separately in an earlier post (June 11th).
Columbia has the U.S. distribution for Greta Gerwig's Little Women and though Columbia has a thin resume with Telluride, it's not invisible having just screened Jason Reitman's The Front Runner and Yann Damange's White Boy Rick last year at TFF #45. In both cases, the director had previous work at Telluride. Reitman a lot.
So the Gerwig connection could prove as potent this year after her success at Telluride with Lady Bird (2017- five Oscar nominations including Best Picture). TFF also loved her as a guest as the star of Noah Baumbach's Frances Ha in 2012.
Meanwhile, the other Sony affiliate that has a film in the discussion for Telluride is Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as children's television icon Fred Rogers. Despite zero history between TriStar and TFF, Heller's presence (and perhaps Hanks') makes me think that it could be a consideration. Last year Heller had a nifty run with Can You Ever Forgive Me? with that film debuting at Telluride and earning three Oscar nominations including one for Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress.
I'm currently putting their chances as:
Little Women 50%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 40%
Tomorrow, I'll take a look at a bunch of smaller specialty houses that have films in play.
THE IRISHMAN PING PONG
I'd pretty much reached the conclusion and reported that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman was off the books as far as Telluride was concerned and that hasn't changed. The last couple of days, however, have been a funny back and forth as to whether it has a release date and an Indiewire story that flat says no fall film fests.
First the release date hoody-hoo. A number of outlets reported on Tuesday that one of the film's producers, Irwin Winkler, was on record as saying that the film would have a Thanksgiving release. That gave rise to some speculation that the film's visual effects might be done in time for Scorsese to screen it at the New York Film Fest (which has seemed like the natural landing place all along).
But Netflix and Scorsese reps strongly stated that there are still no firm release plans.
I have linked the updated stories about the release date ping pong here from The Playlist and for The Film Stage.
Starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, Bill Condon's The Good Liar has been on my Telluride radar for a bit. The film is set for release on Nov. 15th and is being domestically distributed by Warner Bros.
The film has McKellen as a con man and Mirren as his mark but things don't go according to his plans.
New Line Cinema dropped the first trailer for the film yesterday. Here it is via YouTube:
It looks...good.
Condon is an Oscar winner for writing the screenplay for Gods and Monsters. He also was nominated for Chicago.
Good Tuesday everyone and here's your MTFB for the day.
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: FOCUS FEATURES
Focus Features has had a very spotty record with Telluride over the years that I have been attending as you can see from the list below, Focus has been on the program five times since 2006:
2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire
However, also note that Focus has played Telluride two years consecutively and three of the last four TFFs. Additionally, Darkest Hour was very successful with its run two years ago with two Oscar wins including Gary Oldman for Best Actor and another four nominations including one for Best Picture.
I'd also guess that Focus was aiming/hoping for the same kind of success last year with Boy Erased. That didn't happen as Oscar nominations didn't pan out, though Boy Erased was nominated for two Golden Globes.
Both films...as a matter of fact, I believe all five of these listed Focus Feature films first screened at Telluride. Also, in most cases, the directors of the films had been involved with a film that had played Telluride previously.
Last year this is how I handicapped the possible Focus Feature films:
Everybody Knows 50%
Boy Erased 40%
On the Basis of Sex 40%
Mary Queen of Scots 40%
As to 2019, Focus has two films that might be possible. Kasi Lemmons Harriet Tubman biopic starring Cynthia Ervio is one and Todd Haynes untitled film currently listed by IMDb as being in post-production since March is the other.
Mark Ruffalo takes the lead in the film as an attorney fighting corporate environmental malfeasance. The film is based on a Nataniel Rich article from The New York Times Magazine in 2016. The title Dry Run has been used in the past for this film. That article is linked here.
Lemmons played Eve's Bayou at T-ride in 1997. Haynes has been a frequently programmed director with Carol, Wonderstruck and I'm Not There.
There's an outside shot that Eliza Hittman's Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always gets some attention as well.
Focus also has the Downton Abbey film which opens Sept. 20th but seems an unlikely TFF choice.
Soooo...my percentages for Focus...
Harriet 50%
Haynes/Dry Run 50%
Never, Rarely 25%
Downton 10%
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Focus landed two films at Telluride this year.
Apple seems to be wanting to produce half a dozen small budget/high prestige fare with an eye toward awards season.
The Post's source is quoted in the article as saying that Apple aims to create "Focus Features-esque awards contenders" and specifically mentions BlacKkKlansman, Boy Erased and Dallas Buyers Club.
Of course, from my perspective, the questions that raises are: "Will Apple strive to compete for fall festival slots?" and, of course and specifically, "Will they make the attempt to get into Telluride?"
Seems like that will be really interesting to keep an eye on.
SOON TO SEE THE GOOD LIAR
Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren photo from The Good Liar via USA Today
Anton Volkov's Trailer Track website reported yesterday that we are soon to see a trailer for The Good Liar. The film stars Helen Mirren and Ian McKellen. The film is directed by Bill Condon and set for U.S. release on Nov. 15th. It is being distributed by Warner Bros.
All of these factors make it a possible choice for Telluride.
Volkov says he expects the trailer online in the next 10 days or so and likely to be timed with next week's release of Danny Boyle's Yesterday.
In the film, McKellen plays an aging con artist and Mirren a well-to-do widow according to the film's IMDb web page.
There WAS other news that had some Telluride Film Festival interest this last week in addition to the phenomenal 33 (35 counting TFF #40's "Ida") Oscar nominations for Telluride titles; 22 between "Birdman", "The Imitation Game" and "Foxcatcher". So, I thought it'd be a good idea to peruse some of those developments/stories...
BERLIN ADDS TITLES
The Berlin International Film Festival added competition titles this week. At least two of them immediately caught my eye. Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" with Nicole Kidman and Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" with Sir Ian McKellan and Laura Linney were announced in that group of titles.
As I have pointed out, we usually see a title or two that premieres at Berlin at Telluride. To my thinking, and unless the film's respective distributors have some other plan for general release, these two films would be serious contenders to make the Berlin/Telluride play. "Queen of the Desert" has no distributor as yet and "Mr. Holmes" is with Roadside Attractions which ran "'71" through Berlin then Telluride last year. Roadside also had Tommy Lee Jones "The Homesman" at Telluride as well. Roadside also had "All is Lost" and "Gloria" in TFF #40.
Considering Herzog's strong ties to Telluride and Condon's occasional presence there (Condon's "Kinsey" with Linney played in 2004) as well as Laura Linney's frequent connection to the fest, means that both films would seem to be very real T-ride possibilities.
This all assumes that both films meet the exacting standards of the Telluride programmers.
Here's the post from IndieWire about the new Berlin titles:
I continue to collect and analyze various "Most Anticipated" lists for 2015 in an effort to identify what films are coming down the pike that could make an appearance over Labor Day weekend. I've got three more to eyeball in today's post:
First, IndieWire's 40 Indie Films they're "Most Excited" to see in 2015:
And from that list, here's what stands out as early Telluride potentials:
#7 "Erran"'
#5 "Every Thing Will Be Fine"
#3 "La blessure"
#1 "Flashmob"
WITHER WARNER BROTHERS?
Warners announced this past week that the Ron Howard film "In the Heart of the Sea" was being moved from a spring date to December. Along with the announcement came a good deal of speculation as to why Warners had made the decision with positioning for an awards season run being a common theory. Of course, from my perspective, it made the film go from "can't play Telluride if it's released in March" to "December makes it a possibility".
I've already mentioned that I believe that Warners may press to return to Telluride after a noticeable presence in 2012 ("Argo") and again in 2013 ("Gravity" and "Prisoners"). Warners wasn't in T-ride this year and that may be that their two biggest possible players: "American Sniper" and "Inherent Vice" couldn't be ready in time or just preferred not to be a part of Telluride...or that Telluride didn't prefer those films. Nevertheless, I wouldn't be surprised for Warners to be back at Telluride this year and they have a number of prospects that could make the lineup including the newly moved Ron Howard film "In the Heart of the Sea". Other possibilities (meaning that they are films that have an announced released date post-Labor Day):
Jeff Nichols "Midnight Special" (Release: Nov. 25)
Scott Cooper's "Black Mass" (Release: Sept. 18)
and now
Ron Howard's "In the Heart of the Sea" (Release: Dec. 11)
At this point, I don't have a sense that any one of these films is more likely than the others. I'd probably lean to starring "Black Mass" if it weren't for the release date opening less than two weeks after the close of the festival. So let's leave it at..."Warners might be back with one or more of these films".
RUDDERLESS IS ARRIVING
William H. Macy's Oklahoma shot and written directing debut "Rudderless" arrives on DVD and BluRay tomorrow. Seek it!
Today I'm almost concluding my "Usual Suspects" rundown as it relates to TFF #41. In parts one and two I looked at the prospects of "Usuals": Herzog, Burns, Payne, Cousins, Morris, Inarritu, Leigh, the Dardennes and Assayas. Six more today and a small addendum for tomorrow.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS 2014 PART THREE
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach in Telluride in 2012 (photo via Kristy Patterson)
Today we start with Noah Baumbach. Baumbach is interesting "Usual Suspect" this year as he may...and I stress "may", have two potential projects that could play the fest. Baumbach's past with Telluride includes "Margot at the Wedding" in 2007 and his collaboration with Greta Gerwig in 2012, "Frances Ha".
Baumbach has collaborated again with Ms. Gerwig in what is still being referenced as "Untitled Public School Project". IMDb lists it as being in post-production as of late April. If you'll recall, however, "Frances Ha" was similarly under-the-radar when it appeared at Telluride two years ago.
The other Baumbach project seems to be farther along and more is known about it. Entitled "While We're Young" it stars Ben Stiller, Naomi Watts and Amanda Seyfried. It is also listed by IMDb as being in post as of late February.
My expectation is that one of these two films play Telluride. Each would have its merits. I love me some Greta Gerwig, loved "Frances Ha" and am curious about what she and Baumbach might have cooked up. On the other hand, the inclusion of "While We're Young" might also get Ben Stiller in town on Labor Day weekend and I would add him to my currently imaginary panel of comic actors working serious that at the moment would include Michaell Keaton from Inarritu's "Birdman" and Steve Carell from Miller's "Foxcatcher".
Again, I'll bet one if not both Baumbach's play.
IMDb pages for "While We're Young" and "Untitled Public School":
Stephen Frears...if reports are to be believed, and I do believe them, was supposed to have been a late addition to Telluride last year with "Philomena". That didn't work out. There was even some rumor floating about that Frears might have been Guest Director or one of them but that didn't work out either.
Nevertheless, Frears has another project this year that could make appearance and that is his "Untitled Lance Armstrong Biopic" starring Ben Foster as the now disgraced bicyclist.
Frears was the recipient of a TFF tribute in 1987 that included a screening of "Sammy and Rosie Get Laid' and was back in 2010 with "Tamara Drewe".
My feeling is that this is an "iffy" proposition for Telluride. IMDb lists it as being in post-production as of mid-January but Frears (despite my listing him as an "Usual") has a hit and miss record with T-ride. It's also difficult to assess what effect the events of last year might have.
Ultimately, I think the chances of us seeing the Frears project this Labor Day is about 30%.
Next up is Wim Wenders. Wenders was an early Telluride participant and then came back strong recently. Wenders, like Baumbach, has a couple of projects that could show at The SHOW. First, his Cannes documentary "Salt of the Earth" that looks at the life of photographer Sebastiao Salgado. The film won a couple of awards at Cannes and is in the Sony Pictures Classics stable so you have to think it's a very real T-ride possibility (I've already had it on my "Ten Bets" list this summer).
Wim Wenders
The other Wenders project is the feature film "Every Thing Will Be Fine" which stars James Franco and Rachel McAdams. It is listed as being in post-production as of last month. I think that it's much less likely to show up on the program.
Then there's Lone Scherfig. Scherfig played Telluride in 2001 with "Italian for Beginners" in 2001 and was back again in 2009 with "An Education" (in one of those really rare instances where a film played at Sundance and then at Telluride...it happens about once a decade). Scherfig has a new film in post-production called "Riot Club" starring Natalie Dormer which focuses on Oxford's "Riot Club". The film is set to premiere in England and Ireland on Sept. 19th so a Telluride play would work nicely for it. The lack of a U.S. distribution deal may slow its chances, however.
Right now I'd give "Riot Club" only a 25% chance of playing Telluride.
Finally, today, two guys that used to be "Usuals" that might return to the party.
John Boorman is listed on Telluride's "Esteemed Council of Advisers" and has been for a good long time as has Peter Bogdanovich.
Peter Bogdanovich and John Boorman
Boorman has a sequel in the can of his Oscar nominated "Hope and Glory". This film is entitled "Queen and Country". Bogdanovich also has a film entitled "Squirrels to the Nuts" which reportedly hearkens back to the film maker's heyday of comedies like "Paper Moon" and "What's Up Doc?" It stars Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson as well as past Bogdo stars Cybil Shepherd and Tatum O'Neal.
Of these two, I feel "Queen and Country" has a reasonable shot to make the lineup...say 40%. "Squirrels" seems to be less likely to me. Out its chances at 25%.
Tomorrow, a small addendum to this year's "Usual Suspects"...
CRAVE ONLINE TAKES A STAB
Take a look at this CraveOnline video touting the upcoming Telluride Film Festival. It's kind of entertaining. "Crave's" film guy William Bibbiani takes a stab at prediciting the Telluride lineup. He mentions Fincher's "Gone Girl" (see below) , Nolan's "Interstellar", Inarritu's "Birdman" and Scott's "Exodus".
Frankly, I don't know anyone who thinks that "Gone Girl" or "Exodus" are likely and, though I have seen one mention of "Interstellar's " possibility for Telluride, I'd still be surprised if it is in the lineup. I'd like that, but I'd be surprised.
"Birdman"...yes. I think so as well.
I left a comment suggesting that they needed to check this space.
"GONE" TO NYC
"Gone Girl" trailer from YouTube
Variety posted last night that David Fincher's "Gone Girl" will open the New York Film Festival and though I have been consistent in saying it wasn't likely for Telluride, this announcement makes it all but official. Check the Variety story here:
Incidentally, the announcement stirred up some Twitter traffic about other possible NYFF possible choices for closing night and the mid-fest special screening and as a part of that there was some further mention that there is some buzz about Nolan's "Interstellar" playing Telluride. Rumors are rumors, but it's still fun to think about,
COMING ATTRACTIONS: MR. HOLMES?
Ian McKellen as Sherlock Holmes in "Mr. Holmes" from Rope of Silicon
Earlier this week, we saw the first image from Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" starring Ian McKellen as a 93 year old version of Sherlock Holmes and Laura Linney as well. The film is currently filming and is expected to be released in 2015. Production companies on the film include See Saw Films, BBC Films and FilmNation, all of which have had a presence at past Tellurides. It sounds like the kind of film that could make the TFF #42 lineup.
