75 Films That Could Make the TFF #46 Lineup / Venetian Choices / Varda By Agnes English Trailer / Beautiful Day News / New Stills for Ada Astra /

Hope you had a good weekend... and also a big thank you to all of you that reached out in some fashion to offer condolences regarding the denial of my request for media accreditation for this year's Telluride Film Festival.


75 FILMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TFF #46 LINEUP

From the "Throw Everything Against the Wall and See What Sticks" Dept.: here, in alphabetical order, are 75 titles that could be named to the lineup for The SHOW:

1917
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts
Ahmed
Atlantics 
Bacurau
Bad Education
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bergman Island
Blackbird
By the Grace of God
The Climb
Country Music/Ryman Concert
Dry Run (Todd Haynes film)
Ema
Fair and Balanced
Falling
Family LLC
First Cow
Ford vs. Ferrari
Forman vs. Forman
Frankie
The Goldfinch
The Good Liar
Harriet
A Hidden Life
John Prine: Hello in There
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Judy
Just Mercy
Kajillionaire
The Kindness of Strangers
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
The Laundromat
Les Miserables
Light of My Life
The Lighthouse
Little Women
Long Time Coming
Lucy in the Sky
Mainstream
Marriage Story
Matthias and Maxime
Mr. Jones
Molly
Motherless Brooklyn
The Nest
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always
Nomadland
Pain and Glory
Parasite
The Personal History of David Copperfield 
The Pope
Port Authority
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Queen + Slim
Radioactive
The Report
Sebring
Sorry We Missed You
Synonyms
Torrance
The True History of the Kelly Gang
The Truth
The Two Glorias: Life on the Road
Uncut Gems
Untitled Miranda July Film
Varda by Agnes
Wasp Network
Wendy
Where Is Anne Frank?
The Whistlers
Who You Think I Am


And bonus...New Looney Tunes Cartoons...


VENETIAN CHOICES?

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy thinks he's got the bead on Venetian titles due to what seemed like an errant Tweet yesterday from what Ruimy deems a very credible source.

Among titles he rattles off that also could make the Venice/Telluride connection are:

Soderbergh's The Laundromat, Reichardt's First Cow, Gray's Ad Astra, Waititi's Jojo Rabbit, Larrian's Ema and Baumbach's Marriage Story.

Jordan's full story is linked here.



VARDA BY AGNES HAS AN ENGLISH TRAILER


Ahead of announcements this week that I suspect will reveal where this final film from Agnes Varda lands comes an English dubbed trailer.


Here that is from YouTube:

And a poster as well:

Here's coverage of the trailer release from:

FirstShowing.net

The Playlist

The Film Stage

BEAUTIFUL DAY NEWS

Over the weekend I ran across a couple of articles about Marielle Heller's upcoming A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as Fred Rogers.  Also, coming later today we should see the first trailer for the film.  That, to me, pre-sages the likelihood that some festival is going to announce the film in the next few days.  Toronto announces its first wave tomorrow and Venice announces on Thursday.

Here's the articles from the weekend from Entertainment Weekly  and The Wrap.

I am anticipating that I'll be able to tweet the trailer later today and also expect to include it in tomorrow's post.

NEW STILLS FOR AD ASTRA

On the Red Carpet tweeted new photos from James Gray's Ad Astra-again, another film that we should know more about by the time we get to the end of the week in terms of where it lands or if it lands fest-wise.

Here's a sample of a couple of the new looks:

That's your Monday...more tomorrow including news from Toronto.

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First Ten Bets for 2019 / The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part One / Variety's 31 Flavors of Oscar

Your final Friday of June has arrived...

FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2019

Well, it's here.

My very first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46.

I've been posting my guesses predictions for Telluride in this format since 2011.  Some years I have a better track record than others with the initial stab.  My track record throughout the years on the first Ten Bets looks like this:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner.  But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.

Other films that I listed on 2018's "just under the Ten Bets" that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.

Last year's half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.'

And so with that as a backdrop...drumroll please...here's your first Ten Bets for TFF #46


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


I'll be updating the Ten Bets each Friday for the rest of the summer and, as has become my custom, it will expand as we move through time.  Ultimately the final Ten Bets will come on Wednesday, August 28th with up to 25 films that I will predict or deduce that will make the TFF #46 lineup.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART ONE

Casting a glance today at smaller distribution houses and the films that they have that could make the Telluride program:

-COHEN MEDIA GROUP

This company is a consistent T-ride player.  Its history:

2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack


So what's in the CMG larder:

Safy Nebbou's Berlin hit Who You Think I Am.  The film focuses on a 50 year old woman (Juliette Binoche) who creates a fake social media profile.

At the moment, it seems to be the only film CMG has but don't discount the possibility that they'll acquire a film this summer that might also make the lineup.


-KINO LORBER

Another group that has been a frequent entrant in Telluride's fest.  Kino Lorber's track record:

2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain


After five straight years with at least one film in play at TFF, Kino Lorber was absent last year.  They could return- and have a good chance to do so, this year with a film that scored well at the Berlin International Film Festival. 

Nadav Lapid's Synonyms won the top prize, the Golden Bear, last February.  It has played a bunch of international fests since then.

IMDb describes the film as " A young Israeli man absconds to Paris to escape his nationality, aided by his trusty Franco-Israeli dictionary.


-IFC FILMS

IFC also has, at least for the moment, a single film that seems possible for T-ride and that is Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.   Described as a film that focuses on the stormy reunion between a daughter and her mother who is an actress involved in a sci-fi film in which she plays a woman who never ages.

After Kore-eda's stellar run in 2018 with Shoplifters which played TFF #45, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes  and was Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language film, you have to think that The Truth would be under real consideration for a return to Telluride for the director.


Chances for today's batch of films:

Synonyms 50%
The Truth 50%
Who You Think I Am 40%

I'll have a look at some of the other smaller distribution outfits on Monday.


VARIETY'S 31 FLAVORS OF OSCAR

Variety's Tim Gray posted a lengthy piece on Tuesday called "Oscar: 31 Upcoming Films that Could Enter the Awards Race". 

There are actually more than 31.
 when you look at all the lists and categorizations.

As you might expect, a slew of potential T-ride selections are on his various category lists.

Among the possible T-ride players that Gray includes are (in the order he lists them):

Untitled Jay Roach Fox News Project
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Little Women
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Laundromat
The Pope
Atlantics
Untitled Sally Potter Project (Molly)
Jojo Rabbit
The Woman in the Window
Joker...yea, I said it.
Motherless Brooklyn
The Good Liar
1917
Against All Enemies
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
Les Miserables
The Lighthouse
Lucy in the Sky
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project


The complete article is linked here.


That's the Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Plus / The Irishman Ping Pong / The Good Liar Has a Trailer

Good Thursday World...


THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PLUS

...And by "Sony Plus" I mean their affiliated companies Columbia and TriStar

The Sony Pictures group also includes Sony Pictures Classics, but as it is Sony's indie branch, I have dealt with it separately in an earlier post (June 11th).

Columbia has the U.S. distribution for Greta Gerwig's Little Women and though Columbia has a thin resume with Telluride, it's not invisible having just screened Jason Reitman's The Front Runner and Yann Damange's White Boy Rick last year at TFF #45.  In both cases, the director had previous work at Telluride.  Reitman a lot.

So the Gerwig connection could prove as potent this year after her success at Telluride with Lady Bird (2017- five Oscar nominations including Best Picture).  TFF also loved her as a guest as the star of Noah Baumbach's Frances Ha in 2012.


Meanwhile, the other Sony affiliate that has a film in the discussion for Telluride is Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as  children's television icon Fred Rogers.  Despite zero history between TriStar and TFF, Heller's presence (and perhaps Hanks') makes me think that it could be a consideration.  Last year Heller had a nifty run with Can You Ever Forgive Me? with that film debuting at Telluride and earning three Oscar nominations including one for Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress.

I'm currently putting their chances as:

Little Women 50%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 40%


Tomorrow, I'll take a look at a bunch of smaller specialty houses that have films in play.


THE IRISHMAN PING PONG

I'd pretty much reached the conclusion and reported that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman was off the books as far as Telluride was concerned and that hasn't changed.  The last couple of days, however, have been a funny back and forth as to whether it has a release date and an Indiewire story that flat says no fall film fests.

First the release date hoody-hoo.  A number of outlets reported on Tuesday that one of the film's producers, Irwin Winkler, was on record as saying that the film would have a Thanksgiving release.  That gave rise to some speculation that the film's visual effects might be done in time for Scorsese to screen it at the New York Film Fest (which has seemed like the natural landing place all along).

But Netflix and Scorsese reps strongly stated that there are still no firm release plans.

I have linked the updated stories about the release date ping pong here from The Playlist and for The Film Stage.

And here is the Anne Thompson story from Indiewire that flat says no Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.



THE GOOD LIAR HAS A TRAILER

Starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, Bill Condon's The Good Liar has been on my Telluride radar for a bit.  The film is set for release on Nov. 15th and is being domestically distributed by Warner Bros.

The film has McKellen as a con man and Mirren as his mark but things don't go according to his plans.

New Line Cinema dropped the first trailer for the film yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

It looks...good.

Condon is an Oscar winner for writing the screenplay for Gods and Monsters.  He also was nominated for Chicago.


The Good Liar's IMDb page is here.


That's your Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow including the season's first Ten Bets.


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The Distributors 2019: Amazon Studios / The Report Release / Just Off the "If I Had To"

Welcome back from your Father's Day weekend.  Twas also my dad's birthday weekend...he's 83!


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: AMAZON STUDIOS

Last Friday I talked about Netflix and it's no secret that streaming platforms have changed the landscape when it comes to film festivals, Oscar and T-ride.  Amazon Studios has also been a huge player in that transition and as such has become, over the last three years, an outfit to be noticed when trying to handicap The SHOW as well as the Oscar race.

Amazon had serious Oscar players last year with Cold War (Three Oscar nominations including Best Director) and in 2016 with Manchester by the Sea (which allowed Casey Affleck to win the Oscar for Best Actor and Kenneth Lonergan to win for Best Original Screenplay).

Amazon Studios Telluride resume is small but mighty:

2018: Peterloo, Cold War
2017: Wonderstruck
2016: Manchester by the Sea

And here were my numbers attempting to predict their chances at Telluride for 2018.  I posted the Amazon picks on June 21st last year.

Peterloo- 75%
Cold War- 50%
Beautiful Boy 40%
Photograph- 30%
Life Itself- 20%


And, as you can see, the high percentages for Peterloo and Cold War panned out.

Looking at this year, Amazon's potential for T-ride inclusion is substantial.  As of today, they have at least five films that are part of the conversation:

Against All Enemies/Andrews
The Goldfinch/Crowley
Les Miserables/Ly
Radioactive/Satrapi
The Report/Burns

Andrews, Crowley and Satrapi have all had films play at Telluride previously each with a single film:

Andrews: 2016: Una
Crowley: 2003: Intermission
Satrapi: 2007: Persepolis

On Friday last week, you may have noticed that I listed Crowley's The Goldfinch as one of my ten "If I Had To" list.  The Goldfinch is actually split between Amazon and Warner Bros.

Consequently, The Goldfinch leads the Amazon list in terms of chances to play T-ride in 2019 but each of the five films have a serious chance to make it.

The chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35% (played Sundance but so did Manchester by the Sea...see below)


Tomorrow, I'll take a stab at evaluating the lineup from Focus Features.



THE REPORT RELEASE

Adam Driver in The Report (via IMDb)

The Report was very well received at its original screening at Sundance in February (94% at Rotten Tomatoes) and since then I have been suggesting that it might be one of the films for which the programmers at Telluride might make an exception.

Telluride rarely...and I mean rarely...programs a film that has played previously at Sundance.  It happened a couple of years back with Manchester by the Sea which was produced by Amazon Studios.  The Report is being distributed this year by Amazon as well.

Not surprisingly, we found out over the weekend that The Report will have a theatrical release prior to its streaming debut on Sept. 27th.  Tom Bruggeman at Indiewire, among others, posted that on Thursday.  You can find more details in the Indiewire story linked here.

That date would certainly allow The Report to make the lineup at The SHOW as well as Toronto.   New York seems unlikely as that fest opens on the 27th as well.


JUST OFF THE "IF I HAD TO"

Friday I kind of did an unofficial list of films that I was spitballing as possible TFF #46 films.  If you missed them, that list again was:

Atlantics
The Climb
Country Music
Family Romance LLC
The Goldfinch
Nomadland
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Varda by Agnes

In addition to those ten films there are a few others that I feel like may also be semi-serious potentials:

Harriet, Motherless Brooklyn, Synonyms, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Truth.


More to come on Tuesday...

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Pictures Classics / A Look at The Whistlers / Stone's First Assessment

Welcome to this first summer 2019 Tuesday edition of MTFB...



THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Over the years I've been attending Telluride's Film Festival no other distribution company has placed more films at TFF than Sony Pictures Classics and it really isn't even close.  Look at the SPC/TFF history over the past 16 years:


2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)


That's 71 films over 16 festivals averaging an astonishing 4.4 films a year.  Last year and 2015 were anomalies with only a single SPC film making the TFF lineup.

When I posted the SPC assessment last summer I only had then  with two possibilities: Capernaum and The Fall of the American Empire.  I listed Capernaum with a 60% chance at TFF and American Empire at 30% and, as you may remember, neither film played The SHOW.

In my defense, I did say in last summer's post that 2018 could be a year wherein SPC might only have a single film at Telluride and they didn't acquire distribution rights to Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow until August 13th, more than two months after I posted the SPC assessment.

This year, SPC looks likely to be back at TFF but probably not at the 4-5 film level.  Right now, they list five films that I think could be in play.  Three of those are films from Cannes plus a documentary and World War II drama.

The Cannes films are Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory, Ira Sachs' Frankie and Michael Covino's The Climb.  Both the Almodovar and the Covino films were critically lauded at the French fest last month with Pain and Glory winning Best Actor for Antonio Banderas and The Climb winning a jury award in the Un Certain Regard section.  Frankie did not fare as well with critics or jurors.

As I have written here a few times, Almodovar was a common invitee to TFF in the past but hasn't screened a film there since 2006's Volver.  Perhaps Pain and Glory is the film that returns the Oscar winner to the San Juans.

The other two SPC films are a documentary about the life of musical legend John Prine entitled John Prine: Hello in There and the drama The Song of Names starring Clive Owen and Tim Roth.  SPC acquired The Song of Names in April.

My assessment at the moment is actually that The Climb might be the front runner for SPC's chances to be on the Telluride list.  Here's my best guestimate of the chances for each of the five films listed above to make The SHOW

The Climb 50%
Pain and Glory 40%
Frankie 30%
The Song of Names 30%
John Prine: Hello in There 20%

Thursday's  distribution spotlight will shine on Fox Searchlight.



A LOOK AT THE WHISTLERS

Still from The Whistlers via The Playlist

In 2006 Corneliu Porumboiu screened his Cannes award winning film 12:08 East of Bucharest at the 30th Telluride Film Festival.  He hasn't had a film return since.

That could change this year with his latest Cannes entrant The Whistlers.  IMDb describes the film as a comedy and a crime film.  The story centers on a policeman attempting to spring a crooked businessman from prison complicated by the need to use different languages.

The film played moderately well as a part of the Palme competition lineup at last month's Cannes fest but was not an award winner.

Earlier this week, a new international teaser trailer became available for the film.  Here that is from YouTube:

The Playlist posted an extensive story on the film on May 18th for the film's Cannes debut.  The post include multiple clips and stills from the film.  That Playlist story is linked here.


The Whistlers does not have U.S. distribution at this point.


STONE'S FIRST ASSESSMENT

Sasha Stone, who has been a good friend to me over the years, has her first assessment of the Best Picture landscape for this year at her website Awards Daily.

Sasha also includes as a part of her review Best Pic sentiments from Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.

Sasha's list ultimately includes ten films most of which could potentially be a part of the TFF #46 lineup. 

Among the ten films she lands on are: Scorsese's The Irishman, Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Gerwig's Little Women and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Check out her entire article here.

That's a wrap for this Tuesday.  More on Thursday.

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I'm Back / Netflix and Cannes: The Breakup Continues / Malick at Cannes and Then... / Schiller Talks Telluride and More / Lucy in the Sky Teaser / Burn's Country Music / New Pic of Hanks as Rogers

Spring Break has concluded...

I'M BACK

After a ten day hiatus MTFB is back today after having spent Spring Break doing this and that.  Spent some of the break in NYC.  Saw Aaron Sorkin's adaptation of Harper Lee's To Kill a Mockingbird with Jeff Daniels.  It's nearly perfect.  Saw Bryan Cranston in Network...Cranston is phenomenal.  Did some other stuff.

It was good to step away for a few days, but I'm back now as we head our way to the announcement of the films that will play at Cannes which really does begin the Telluride speculation season on some earnest.   Here we go...


NETFLIX AND CANNES: THE BREAKUP CONTINUES

While I was away we found out that Netflix will again have zero films playing at the Cannes Film Fest in May.  The impasse that created that situation last year has not been resolved and as such, Netflix apparently will not be bringing any films to France in any of the programs.

That was reported in a  number pf places this past week including this from Variety.

In addition, as it turns out, the big fish in Netflix's barrel this season, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman reportedly wouldn't be ready anyway.  It seems that there is still far too much effects work to be done.  That according to Zack Sharf writing at Indiewire.

Sharf writes that a Venice premiere at this point seems the safest bet.  That would still seem to leave the door open for a screening at Telluride much in the way Netflix played Cuaron's Roma last year (and Searchlight did Shape of Water the year before).

My take is still some serious wariness.  Scorsese hasn't been at Telluride in decades.  I wouldn't be surprised if it played Venice and Venice alone or skipped fests all together. 

Still, Collider's Adam Chitwood suggests a run for the film through the Venice, Telluride, Toronto (maybe New York) gauntlet.


MALICK AT CANNES AND THEN...

And speaking of Cannes...there's a growing consensus that  Terrence Malick will return to Cannes in May with his latest film Radegund.  It's a film I have been stalking for quite some time mostly because it's Malick doing a film with a reportedly more traditionally narrative structure that tells the true story of an Austrian conscientious objector during World War II.

I'm hoping, that after a spate of films that haven't exactly been embraced (since Tree of Life) that this will be the path back to critical success for the auteur. 

Charles Barfield writing for The Playlist suggests that Cannes will screen the new film. That story is linked here.

Should that come to pass, the questions would be: does it play any other fests and which distributor picks it up?

I'll keep an eye on it.

SCHILLER TALKS TELLURIDE, FILM AND MORE?

Friend of the blog and multi-hyphenate Christopher Schiller was featured this week on The Weekend Take podcast with Shawn Schaffer.  Schiller runs down a number of topics including a love letter to the Telluride Film Festival.

You can find Schiller's guest stint and The Weekend Take podcast at iTunes at this link.



LUCY IN THE SKY TEASER


Here's the teaser from YouTube:

The Hollywood Reporter

First Showing

The Playlist

Indiewire




BURNS' COUNTRY MUSIC

The Asheville, NC  Citizen Times reports that Ken Burns is going to screen some moments of his new documentary on country music in Asheville next week (on April 2 on the UNC-Asheville campus).  It's yet another sign that, although the entire 16 hour doc may not be ready in its entirety, there's plenty of it to show to an audience.

This roll out in various parts in various places continues to make me think that a presentation of some of it over Labor Day weekend in T-ride  is a realistic possibility.

The Citizen Times article is linked here.



NEW PIC OF HANKS AS ROGERS

And to celebrate what would have been Fred Rogers 91st birthday, TriStar released a new photo from the set of A Beautiful Day in the neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as Rogers.

Here's the new photo:

The film is directed by Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and is set for U.S. release on Nov. 22nd.

That's your "Spring Break Is Over Return Issue" of MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


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The Cannes Speculation Begins / But Not This One? / And on a Related Note...Venice-Netflix? / Early Oscar Analysis

Welcome back for the weekend...Did you Spring Forward?  I sort of shambled forward...


THE CANNES SPECULATION BEGINS

With the Cannes Film Festival just a couple of months away, it's time to start thinking in a serious fashion what could play as part of their programs with an eye, then. to those films that could bow in France and then have their North American unveiling over Labor Day weekend in the Colorado Rockies.

To that end, you may have notice The Hollywood Reporter's analysis this week of 50 films that their authors say have a shot at making the 2019 Cannes lineup.

Casting an eye over that moderately extensive list of films, these are the titles that jump out at me as worth a glance as we look for films that could make the TFF #45 program (click on the title to go to its IMDb page):

Against All Enemies dir: Benedict Andrews

Ahmed dir: The Dardennes Brothers

The Truth dir: Hirokazu Koreeda

Ema dir. Pablo Larrain

Radegund dir. Terrence Malick (admittedly more a wish than a prophecy)

First Cow dir: Kelly Reichardt

The Laundromat dir. Stephen Soderbergh

 Of course, there are a number of others listed in the THR article that intrigue and could certainly pop up both in France and Telluride.  The complete THR article is linked here.


BUT NOT THIS ONE?

One film listed in the preceding THR linked story is Martin Scorsese's much anticipated Netflix backed gangster drama The Irishman.  Interestingly, within a day of its publication, ShowBiz411 reported that The Irishman will NOT be ready to make an appearance at Cannes.

Roger Friedman headlines his story from Thursday with "Confirmed: No Irishman at Cannes".  In the body of the story Friedman writes "The film is shot...but the special effects will take months."  Friedman also implies that The Irishman might eschew fall fests altogether which would certainly fit Scorsese's recent M.O.

The complete ShowBiz411 post is linked here.


AND ON A RELATED AND GAME CHANGING NOTE...VENICE/NETFLIX?

Eric Kohn wrote a piece this last week at Indiewire which explores where the Cannes/Netflix relationship is and may be headed.  In it he reports that the Venice International Film Festival may be following Cannes path in regards to screening of Netflix films as the battle over how various entities, Festivals and the Oscars particularly, deal with the films that are produced by the streaming giant.

Kohn reports that a recently signed law in Italy that would establish guidelines for theatrical distribution of films there that are similar to the laws in France which have been the central issue in the ongoing Netflix-Cannes confrontation.

Kohn writes, "The Lido may off limits to Netflix in the coming year".  Additionally, he speculates  that that turn of events could conceivably benefit Telluride (and Toronto) writing that it "could be very good" for both fests.

The full paragraph from Kohn is a s follows:

"Netflix doesn’t necessarily need a bump from the festival for its most anticipated films. “Roma” found plenty of acclaim at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. The Lido may be off-limits to Netflix in the coming year, as Italy’s Minister of Culture Albert Bonisoli signed a law in November requiring theatrical windows in the country similar to the rule in France. But Telluride and Toronto, both of which declined comment for this story, continue to maintain close relationships with Netflix and remain tangible fall launchpads for awards-season hopefuls."

The complete Kohn story is linked here.



EARLY OSCAR ANALYSIS

Also from Indiewire this week is a peak at early Oscar speculation from their resident Oscar guru Anne Thompson.  The article focuses specifically on directors that she perceives might be on the Oscar short list in the months after Telluride comes to a close but still gives us some good fodder for thinking about films that might make their way to the San Juans.

On her list that might be worth our contemplation (and, as above, linked to their IMDb page):

Noah Baumbach' Untitled Project (starring Adam Driver)

Greta Gerwig's Little Women

Noah Hawley's Lucy in the Sky

Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Hirokazu Koreeda's The Truth (mentioned and linked above)

Dee Ree's The Last Thing He Wanted

Jay Roach's Fair and Balanced

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman (if it's ready and fall fests are even a part of its release strategy...see above)

Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window

Thompson's complete Indiewire story is linked here.


That's today's MTFB.  More on Thursday.


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Awards Circuit's First Predix for Oscar 2020 / A Tease for The Irishman / Inarritu to Preside Over Cannes / Trial by Fire Acquired

Good post-Oscar Thursday...


AWARDS CIRCUIT'S FIRST PREDIX FOR OSCAR 2020

Clayton Davis is all over it as he and his website, Awards Circuit, are already up with, what I believe is, the first serious pass at predicting Oscar nominees for Best Picture for next year.

Davis has a really good record of sniffing out Oscar potential this early and as such, gives us some hints about films that might have the pedigree necessary to be considered as possible TFF #46 selections.

Davis runs down a fairly substantial list of films and ends the article with a "pre-season" top ten of possible Best Picture nominees.  Without giving away the entire list of ten films, here are those included that, at first blush, feel like they have the most Telluride prospects:

Marielle Heller's Mr. Rogers biopic starring Tom Hanks as Fred Rogers: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

John Crowley's The Goldfinch based on the Pulitzer Prize winning book starring Nicole Kidman.

Kasi Lemmon's Harriet based on the life of Underground Railroad pioneer Harriet Tubman starring Cynthia Erivo.

And...just because I think Netflix might try to follow the path they used with Roma, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman (see below).  The story of a mob hitman who may have killed Jimmy Hoffa.  For Scorsese, the old gang came back together as the film stars Robert DeNiro, Harvey Keitel and Joe Pesci with the addition of Al Pacino.

Among the other films that Davis discusses that didn't make it to his initial top ten list are these which also seem to make some sense for TFF:

Greta Gerwig's Little Women
Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window
Hirokazu Koreeda's The Truth
Scott Cooper's Antlers
Bill Condon's The Good Liar

Additionally, Davis makes predictions for each of the other 23 categories.

The entire article is linked here.


A TEASE FOR THE IRISHMAN

Perhaps this is Martin Scorsese' Great White Whale.  It's reportedly in post-production and there are rumors that it could well be headed to Cannes (if Cannes and Netflix can reach some sort of arrangement) or maybe Venice.

As I mentioned above, I think we have to at least consider the chance that the film makes its way to Telluride so I'll continue to keep an eye on it.

Consequently, if you didn't notice earlier this week, The Irishman and Netflix dropped a teaser.  Here it is via YouTube:

I also linked some of the coverage the came out with the teaser's release from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

Trailer Track


INARRITU TO PRESIDE OVER CANNES

Speaking of Cannes...the prestigious film festival announced this week that four time Oscar winning director/writer Alejandro Inarritu will preside over this year's Palme d'Or jury.  Inarritu has, over the years, been a staple of the Cannes' lineup in various sections and with multiple films.

Inarritu has also been a frequent presence at Telluride both in the capacity as presenting one of his own films but also as a fan and supporter of his fellow amigos Guillermo Del Toro and Alfonso Cuaron.

Inarritu was first represented at Cannes in 2000 with his first feature Amores Perros.

Here's Variety's story about the announcement.


TRIAL BY FIRE IS ACQUIRED

Roadside Attractions has acquired TFF #45 entrant Trial by Fire from director Ed Zwick.  The film stars Laura Dern and Jack O'Connell and is based on an article from author David Grann.  Trial by Fire was one of two films at last year's fest that was based on material written by Grann.  The other was David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun starring Robert Redford and Sissy Spacek.

Coverage of the acquisition and plans to release the film this spring are addressed in the following:

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

The Wrap



That's today's MTFB.  I'll another go at this on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Updated Oscar Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Critics Choice Awards and Telluride / First Man Stan / 100 2019 Films from The Film Stage

It's an MTFB Monday...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay races. TFF Films are Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Amy Adams/Vice
3) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
4) Emma Stone/The Favourite
5) Claire Foy/First Man

In Contention: Margot Robbie/Mary Queen of Scots, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased, Tomasin Harcourt McKenzie/Leave No Trace, Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place


SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy

In Contention: Sam Rockwell/Vice, Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Favourite
2) Green Book
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) First Reformed

In Contention: Eighth Grade, A Quiet Place


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) A Star Is Born
4) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) First Man

In Contention: Black Panther, Leave No Trace, Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin


I'll have a big set of Oscar nomination predictions on Thursday and, of course, a complete final set of nomination predictions for all 24 categories a week from today.  Also...stay tuned for my picks on the Movie City News Gurus o' Gold charts.


CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS AND TELLURIDE

Here are the winners of last night's Critics Choice Awards from the Broadcast Film Critics Association (Telluride winners in Bold):

Best Picture: Roma
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Actress: (TIE) Glenn Close/The Wife. Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
Actor: Christian Bale/Vice
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Foreign Film: Roma
Animated Film: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Young Actor/Actress: Elsie Fisher/Eighth Grade
Ensemble: The Favourite
Original Screenplay: Paul Schrader/First Reformed
Adapted Screenplay: Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk
Cinematography: Roma
Production Design: Black Panther
Editing: First Man
Costume Design: Black Panther
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Visual Effects: Black Panther
Action Movie: Mission Impossible-Fallout
Comedy Film: Crazy Rich Asians
Actress in a Comedy: Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Actor in a Comedy: Christian Bale/Vice
SciFi/Horror Movie: A Quiet Place
Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born
Score: First Man

Telluride films won nine Critics Choice awards (including one for TFF #44 film First Reformed).

Cuaron's Roma was the night's big winner with four awards including Best Picture and Direction.

Other films with multiple wins were:

Black Panther-3
Vice-3
First Man-2
The Favourite-2
If Beale Street Could Talk-2
A Star Is Born-2


Here is coverage from last night's awards from:

Variety

Awards Daily

Indiewire

FIRST MAN STAN

I'm including a couple of links to First Man oriented posts/stories/interviews as I am unapologetically in its corner as we head into the last few days of Oscar voting.  I am, as the kids say in the parlance of our times, stanning for the film and performers...

Indiewire's Kate Erbland talks to Oscar winning (Spotlight) screen writer Josh Singer.

The L.A. Times' Glenn Whipp talks to star Ryan Gosling and director Damien Chazelle.

Kate Erbland's Indiewire story from right after First Man's Toronto screening.


And just because I really like the film and performances and think it should also make the final Oscar lineup for best picture...

Here's a story about Melissa McCarthy's casting in Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me? from The Hollywood Reporters' Pamela McClintock.



ONE HUNDRED 2019 FILMS FROM THE FILM STAGE

The Film Stage has posted its long 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2019 list.  From that collection of titles here are a dozen titles that feel like (at least this far out) decent best to make the TFF #46 list:

#98-The Woman in the Window
#96-The Kindness of Strangers
#93-Lucy in the Sky
#86-Fireball
#80-Against All Enemies
#62-Ema
#51-Radioactive
#49-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
#48-Mainstream
#16-The Truth
#15-Dry Run
#7- Little Women

Of course there are others on the list that I think might be in play come Labor Day (The Report, Motherless Brooklyn) and others that I'd love to see make TFF #46 (Radegund, The Irishman).

The complete 100 film list plus honorable mentions is linked here.


That's your MTFB fix for this Monday.  I'll have more on Thursday including a substantial Oscar predictions update...lots of categories as we countdown to Oscar nomination morning on Jan. 22nd.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Reminders as we head into 2019 / 150 Foreign Films / Golden Globes on Sunday / 52 Directors on 2018 Films

REMINDERS AS WE HEAD INTO 2019

I took a quick step back at the last couple of months and have re-posted 2019 speculative pieces (with an update here and there) about what films might be in consideration to make the lineup at TFF #46:


THE PLAYLIST 100 (from my Dec. 6th post)

The annual review of their 100 most anticipated films for the new year came down for The Playlist earlier this week and, as you might expect, I have culled the list for films that seem like they should be on our radar for TFF #46.

The staff specifically mentions Telluride as a possible destination for only three films:

#39: Pale Blue Dot (now titled: Lucy in the Sky)
#26: The untitled Noah Baumbach project
#11: The Last Thing He Wanted

Among the other 97 films listed, the following are the ones that seem to me to be most likely:

#100: The Glorias: A Life on the Road
#91: Resistance
#79: My Zoe
#66: Mainstream
#64: Against All Enemies
#63: The Woman in the Window
#59: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (not likely as production has been delayed)
#52: Motherless Brooklyn
#40: The Goldfinch
#34: You Are My Friend (Now titled: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
#33: Antlers
#30: Ema
#29: Waiting for the Barbarians
#24: The King
#20: Radegund
#19: Bergman Island
#17: The Truth
#15: The Laundromat
#13: Triple Frontier (off the list, release dated for Mar. 13th)
#7: Little Women
#2: The Irishman

The complete list of 100 films (plus some honorable mentions) from The Playlist is linked here.

WELLS AND RUIMY (from my Nov. 26th post)


I saw that Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere and Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel had both created and published lists of anticipated 2019 titles...which seems like bait I can't ignore.  Sooo...

I took a look at both lists (which share a huge number of titles) and here are twelve films that seem/sound like they might be candidates for inclusion for TFF #46:

All You Need Is Love.  The project (with Beatles music as a central part of the film) could make TFF #46 because it's from Danny Boyle who has had a significant history with the fest: Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, Steve Jobs.  The film is currently scheduled for U.S. release on Sept. 13th.

The True American from Pablo Larrain...if it's ready.  Larrain, like Boyle, has had a strong history with TFF: No, Neruda.  Both this and the above mentioned Boyle project are produced by Annapurna Pictures which has also had a presence at Telluride: Foxcatcher, Destroyer.

You Are My Friend (now titled A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood):  From Marielle Heller who just has had her Telluride introduction with Can You Ever Forgive Me?  The film stars Tom Hanks (who was at TFF with Sully in 2016) as Fred Rogers.  The film has an awards and TFF friendly release date of Oct. 18th.

Little Women: Greta Gerwig's anticipated take on the Louisa May Alcott classic.  With the reception that her directorial debut Lady Bird received at TFF in 2017 you have to think this is a real possibility.  Scheduled for release on Dec. 25th.

The Woman in the Window: director Joe Wright's follow-up to his 2017 Darkest Hour which played TFF and earned six Oscar nominations and won two including Gary Oldman's Best Actor win.  The film is set for release on Oct. 4th.  The film's plot sounds much a take on Hitchcock's Rear Window and the cast is ridiculously stunning: Julianne Moore, Amy Adams and Gary Oldman.

NOPE...SET TO DROP AT SUNDANCE: Velvet Buzzsaw: From writer-director Dan Gilroy.  I'm mostly thinking this could play because Gilroy re-teams with his Nightcrawler co-conspirators Jake Gyllenhaal and Rene Russo.  The film is set in the contemporary art scene and is described as a horror/thriller.  Netflix is producing which doesn't hurt its TFF chances if the recent past is any indication.

Pale Blue Dot (now titled Lucy in the Sky)  Fargo (the TV version) guru Noah Hawley jumps into feature film making with Natalie Portman starring as an astronaut having issues once she returns from space.  The film is from Fox Searchlight which means we have to consider it a TFF possibility.

Bergman Island: Mia Hansen-Love's latest project and a with her TFF pedigree (Goodbye First Love, Things to Come), a film we should consider.  Mia Wasikowska and Vicky Krieps star.

AGAIN...NOPE...RELEASE IS IN MARCH NOW....Triple Frontier:  a long gestating project from J.C. Chandor.  It's been developed by Netflix and stars Ben Affleck and Oscar Isaac among others about an attempt to overturn the drug trade in South America.  Chandor was in T-ride in 2014 with All Is Lost and both Affleck (Argo) and Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) have been as well.

And then here are these three huge projects...

The Goldfinch:  The film adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Donna Tartt.  John Crowley, who broke through with Brooklyn in 2015, directs.  The cast includes Nicole Kidman (this year at TFF with Destroyer and Boy Erased) and Sarah Paulson.  The film is from Amazon and is set for release on Oct. 11th which makes a T-ride play possible.

Radegund:  Terrence Malick's latest and a film I have been waiting for from him for some time now...surprise, surprise.  The true story of a German conscientious objector in World War II could appear in 2019...or not.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a selection for Cannes.

The Irishman:  Martin Scorsese's Netflix joint.  Probably an unrealistic dream for a Telluride play but a guy has to hope.  DeNiro, Pacino, Pesci and Keitel and more.  The best chance that it plays is that it is from Netflix which, again, doesn't hurt its chances for Telluride.  Netflix has to be happy, at least so far, with how Roma played TFF which probably helps too.


The complete Hollywood Elsewhere post is here.

The complete World of Reel post is here.


150 FOREIGN FILMS

Ioncinema has undertaken the mammoth task of laying out 150 foreign films to anticipate in 2019.  The list is ongoing and not yet complete at their site. 

Among the early films listed are Xavier Dolan's Matthias and Maxime, Michel Hazanavicius' The Lost Prince and Zhang Yimou's One Second which all could make a splash over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.

Here's the first of the links from Ioncinema.



GOLDEN GLOBES ON SUNDAY

I honestly have no real idea how these 90+ HFPA members are going to play this on Sunday.  If I had to guess, I'm thinking A Star Is Born is likely to have a big night.

Here's a reminder of the TFF films/performers who are nominated for Golden Globes:

The Favourite (5):  Best Film-Musical or Comedy, Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Screenplay

Roma (3): Foreign Language, Direction, Screenplay

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2):  Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant)

Boy Erased (2): Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Song

First Man (2): Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Best Score

Destroyer (1): Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)

The Old Man and the Gun (1): Best Actor-Musical or Comedy (Redford)

Girl (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Shoplifters (1): Best Foreign Language Film

TFF #45 films earn 18 Globe nominations.  I'll have some sort of breakdown and commentary in Monday's post.

THE PLAYLIST POLLS 52 DIRECTORS ON THE FILMS OF 2018

The Playlist recent posted an article titled "52 Directors Pick Their Favorite Movies of 2018".  The results are not particularly surprising...Roma is named as the favorite from eight directors including Guillermo Del Toro, Pedro Almodovar, Lynne Ramsay, Rebecca Miller and Edgar Wright.

Several of the respondents listed films in alphabetically order.  Some listed favorite performances or moments.  One even included mention of a couple of plays.

Also mentioned by at least one director as their favorite 2019 film from among Telluride offerings: The Favourite, First Man, Cold War, The Other Side of the Wind and TFF #44's First Reformed.

The complete article from The Playlist is here.


That's MTFB for this first Thursday in 2019.  Happy New Year to all!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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