Producers Endorse Nomadland / Cannes Uncertainty

PRODUCERS ENDORSE NOMADLAND

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) named its winners for film and television last night and the win for Best Feature Film went to Chloe Zhao's Nomadland.  Pixar's Soul was named best Animated feature of the year.

A number of outlets suggested that the PGA win may well be the last indicator anyone needs to conclude that Nomadland will be the Best Picture winner when the final announcement is made on Oscar night, April 25th.

However, the PGA doesn't always presage an Oscar win.  In recent years 1917, La La Land and The Big Short won the PGA but then missed winning the big prize on Oscar night (per Indiewire's Anne Thompson).  As a matter of fact, the PGA historically matches with Oscar about 2/3 of the time according to Deadline. com the match has happened 21 times in the organizations 31 years of existence.

I have included links below to a number of sources covering the awards last night:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

Deadline

 Awards Daily

CANNES UNCERTAINTY

More reporting suggests that there is a possibility that the Cannes Film Festival may be looking at a move to the fall.  Roger Friedman of ShowBiz 411.  

Friedman's article suggests the potential of an October date and makes sure to mention that that would be post-Telluride, Toronto, Venice and New York though New York's normal run is late Sept. into October.

Friedman also pointedly mentions the chaos that would ensue among the fall fests and for the film makers should Cannes move to October writing:

"I’m thinking Thierry Fremaux must be having a nervous breakdown. The poor man. He didn’t get to have a 2020 Festival. And now this. He could show all the 2020 movies at this point in a sidebar. And no one knows what’s happened to Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch.”

Fall movies for festivals are a big question, too. Where will Steven Spielberg unveil West Side Story?"

The entire article is linked here.

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A Week Later... / Nomadland to "Play Telluride" (and Other Places) / Herzog's Fireball Has a Home

A WEEK LATER...

So a week ago I posted a segment suggesting the possibility that the 2020 Oscar season might already be locked in.  My notion was that some possible players will ultimately end up missing the eligibility window as studios/distributors will opt to hold their release until later in 2021.

Then the past week happened and films began to disappear from the announced release schedule.  It was a little surreal.  Tenet...who knows?  Mulan...same.  Even The French Dispatch-which we suspect will be announced as a TFF #47 selection- has gone from an Oct. 16th release date to indeterminant.

I'm beginning to think my idle speculation about what the 2020 Oscar race ends up looking like might actually be what happens.

Here's how I laid out the Oscar race a week ago using the predictions from Clayton Davis' Awards Circuit and ignoring films that I thought might get scheduled outside the window of Oscar eligibility with probable TFF #47 films in Bold:

1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (set to drop on Netflix on Oct. 16th)
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward


It seems to me that the slew of announcements from Warners, Paramount and Disney made the above scenario more likely.

Now, I will note here that I have seen some scuttlebutt on social media arguing that the Academy should, at this point, do a combined 2020-2021 Oscar season.  Though that's possible, I don't see that as very likely.  My guess...and it is just a guess, is that the Academy will stick to its guns having already extended Oscar season to two months and providing studios with the ability for a film to have Oscar eligibility even with its premiere occurring non-theatrically.

I have linked a number of re-scheduling stories from this past week below:

ShowBiz411

Hollywood Elsewhere

The Film Stage


NOMADLAND TO "PLAY TELLURIDE" AFTER ALL (AND OTHER PLACES)

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland will play Telluride...after a fashion.  Indiewire reports that there will be a special drive-in presentation of the film under the banner of "Telluride from Los Angeles".

Thom Geier at The Wrap reports that the drive-in experience will happen on the evening of Sept. 11th-the same night it co-world premieres at both Venice and Toronto and that director Chloe Zhao and star Frances McDormand are scheduled to appear.

Other Nomadland news was revealed, however, as Indiewire's Zach Sharf reports that the film has been selected as the New York Film Fest's centerpiece and that it will also screen as apart of the official program for both Toronto and Venice.

The occurrence of a film playing all four fests is unusual but I suspect that we'll see more of that than this year because of the disruption created by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Nomadland as yet, no announced release date.

The Wrap's story can be found here.

The Indiewire story can be found here.




HERZOG'S FIREBALL HAS A HOME

Apple TV+ has acquired the Werner Herzog documentary Fireball according to Deadline.com.  That acquisition means the film is still a possibility to be named as one of the 20 or so films that are expected to be announced as "TFF #47" choices any day.

And speaking of TFF #47 choices, I'm expecting that list any day now.  With Venice announcing their lineup tomorrow and Toronto likely to name some of their lineup later this week, I wouldn't be stunned should we get that information before close of day on Friday.

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Indiewire Reveals? / Ten Bets #3 / Oscar Ramblings / The Last Distribs

INDIEWIRE REVEALS?

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know".  Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.

Here's the Thompson rundown:

The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).


The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:

Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock

 I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.

The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul.  That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own.  If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.

The complete article is linked here.


TEN BETS #3

Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above.  But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:


10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite


Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note:  this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020.  That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week.  I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today.  So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:


10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite

Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.

Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.


OSCAR RAMBLINGS

I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April.  Here me out...

What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021?  I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date.   I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel.  I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.

So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?

Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above:  Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".

What films then do become players?  Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.

Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.

Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list:  Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May).  Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated.  Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).

Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).

Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.

And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).

I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021.  Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.

So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold.


1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward

And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.


The complete and unaltered list of Clayton's predictions at Awards Circuit predictions are linked here.



THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER

I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.

COHEN MEDIA GROUP

Cohen's TFF History:

2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack

Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:

Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%

KINO LORBER

KL's TFF History:

2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain

Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:

There Is No Evil 50%


SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

The Sundance/IFC TFF History:

2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield

2015: 45 Years

2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2005: Three Times

Possible TFF #47 selection and its chances:

Undine 45%

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