Oscar #97 in the Rear View / Forging Ahead

OSCAR #97 IN THE REAR VIEW

Sunday night's Oscar ceremony brought few, if any, real upsets.  I personally was 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate which is among the lowest rates of success since I started posting Oscar predictions on this site. 

Still, in the case of the seven misses, my "Possible Upset" picked up the statuette in five of the seven categories: Actress, Documentary, Animated Feature, Editing and Documentary Short.  Leaving out the Shorts categories, I was a much more respectable 16 of 20 for 80% among the Feature categories.

I felt some better the next morning when Gold Derby posted the records of their experts..  Had I been among them (there are 38 of them) I would have tied for eighth overall.  Among those with which I tied were Indiewire's Anne Thompson and The Contending's Mark Johnson.  Some experts over which I had a better score were: The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg (65.2%), Deadline's Pete Hammond (65.2%), ABC's Peter Travers (56.5%)  and Variety's Clayton Davis (56.5%).

So, as I said after the nominations dropped in January...where do I apply to be a Gold Derby expert?

Again. TFF films nabbed 10 Oscars.  That's the best since the 2016 edition of TFF when fest films earned 12 Oscars (the year of Moonlight and La La Land).  This year's collection is either tied for second or third most depending if you count the 2008 year wherein Slumdog Millionaire won eight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which won three.  Button only screened a few minutes as a part of the tribute to David Fincher.  So 2008 might be eight or eleven if you count Button.

TFF's 2013 edition had 10 Oscars.  That was the 12 Years a Slave (3) and Gravity (7) year.

Here's another thing that I found revealing.  Since I started the polling of Telluride attendees both with the People and the Professionals TFF has had nine films win Best Picture:

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Birdman

Spotlight

Moonlight

The Shape of Water

Parasite

Nomadland***

Anora

Eight of the nine finished at #1 on the Composite Telluride ratings where I add the ratings from the People and the Professionals together.  The only exception was Nomadland which, of course, couldn't be polled as the fest didn't happen due to Covid.  I still count it as TFF film Best Picture Oscar winner as the fest went out of its way  to premiere the film in Los Angeles as a Drive-In experience.

Seems to me that hitting that #1 Composite spot is kind of telling.  

Other films since I started polling that had the #1 Composite rating but did not win Best Picture:

2018- Roma

2021-The Power of the Dog

2022-TAR

2023-Poor Things

Anora became the 12th TFF film to win Best Picture.

Of the 12, six World Premiered at Telluride: 

Slumdog Millionaire

The King's Speech

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Moonlight

Nomadland (see above)

Three screened at Venice before Telluride:

Birdman

Spotlight

The Shape of Water

Three screened at Cannes before telluride:

The Artist

Parasite

Anora

Of the five other films that have won Best Picture since Slumdog in 2008, no other festival World Premiered the subsequent Best Picture more than once:

2009: The Hurt Locker (Venice, so it totals five)

2018: Green Book (Toronto)

2021: CODA (Sundance)

2022: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (South by Southwest)

2023: Oppenheimer (No Festival appearance)

FORGING AHEAD

So Oscar is done for another season and MTFB turns to the sleuthing of films for the TFF #52 lineup.  Regular readers have already seen some analysis here based on "Most Anticipated" lists from a couple of outlets since the turn of the year.

Now our attention will turn to two primary areas that can give clues...early Oscar predictions and Cannes speculation.  I'll start parsing that with Monday's post.

For those who might remember last year's debacle concerning purchasing tickets...no problem this year.  We've got them and lodging locked down.  Bring on TFF #52!

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Oscar Update: Best Actor / IDA Nominations and TFF #47 / Dweck and Kershaw on The Truffle Hunters / Italy Chooses Notturno / THR's Favorites of the Decade

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 29th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2)

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (1)

3) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods/ (4)

4) Gary Oldman/Mank (3)

5) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (6)

6) Tom Hanks/News of the World (5)

7) Steven Yeun/Minari (7)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (-)

9) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (8)

10) George Clooney/The Midnight Sky (-)

Others: Colin Firth/Supernova, Daniel Kaluuya or LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

Hot: Bosman, Ahmed, Ben-Adir, Clooney

Not: Firth

IDA NOMINATIONS AND TFF #47

The International Documentary Association announced nominations for this year's crop of docs and a couple of TFF #47 films were among the most nominated.  Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's The Truffle Hunters and Sam Pollard's MLK/FBI were two of the most honored films as each film nabbed three nominations apiece.  

The Truffle Hunters (which admittedly has now become a bit of an obsession for me this awards season) was nominated for Best Feature Doc, Director(s) and Cinematography.  

Meanwhile, MLK/FBI was nominated for Best Doc Feature, Director an ABC Video Source Award and Director Sam Pollard was also cited for a career achievement.

Also from TFF #47, short docs The Lost Astronaut from director Ben Proudfoot was nominated as was Unforgivable from director Marlen Vinayo.

The complete list of IDA nominees is linked here from Next Best Picture.

DWECK AND KERSHAW ON THE TRUFFLE HUNTERS

A couple of big interviews this week with the directors of The Truffle Hunters.  Eric Kohn of Indiewire leads a 40ish minute video interview with Gregory Kershaw and Michael Dweck about the film as a part of the IDA Documentary Screening Series.  That is here from YouTube:

Additionally, Dweck and Kershaw also were interviewed by Pat Saperstein for Variety and that was posted yesterday.  That interview/profile is linked here.

ITALY CHOOSES NOTTURNO

Italy has anmed Gianfranco Rosi's documentary, Notturno as its official selection for competition for the Academy Awards Best International Feature category.  The film was a selection of TFF #47.  Notturno is described as:

"a new documentary is an immersive portrait of those trying to survive in the war-torn Middle East."

In addition to TFF #47, the film was also selected by Toronto, New York, London, IDFA and the AFI Fest among others.

Notturno was chosen over the Edoardo Ponti project The Life Ahead which features the first performance from legend Sophia Loren since Rob Marshall's Nine in 2009.

Variety has the story here.

THR'S FAVORITES OF THE DECADE

The Hollywood Reporter polled 3,500 "industry professionals" and asked them for their "favorite movies" of the decade.  The results of that poll were published Wednesday and TFF films did well.  Among the top 20 fave films of the decade that made an appearance at TFF:

#20 The King's Speech

#11 Birdman

#9 Argo

#6 La La Land

#2 12 Years a Slave

Lots of big budget actioners and superhero films made the list and Jordan Peele's Get Out was named the overall favorite of the decade.

The complete list of 20 films from THR can be found linked here.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

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12 Years a Slave is Your Best Picture as Telluride Does It Again/The FAC on a Streak/Transition

Welcome to Post Oscar Monday...

12 YEARS WINS BEST PICTURE AND TELLURIDE DOES IT AGAIN.

For the fifth time in the last six years the Telluride Film Festival served as a conduit to the Oscar winner for Best Picture as Steve McQueen's "12 Years a Slave" deservedly won Best Picture last night.  The run has been impressive:

2013-"12 Years a Slave"
2012-"Argo"
2011-"The Artist"
2010-"The King's Speech"
2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"

"The Hurt Locker" won in 2009.

"12 Years" also picked up Oscars for Lupita Nyong'o for Best Supporting Actress and for John Ridley for Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Gravity"...the other "Telluride" film expected to have a good Oscar night...did.  Winning Best Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Original Score for a total of seven Oscars.

That means 10 Oscars for TFF #40 films.  We knew it was a grand year when we were there!

"Dallas Buyers Club" picked up three Oscars: Matthew McConaughey for Best Actor, Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair

"Frozen" wins two: Best Animated Feature and Song.

"The Great Gatsby" won two for Production Design and Costumes.

The other feature winners were Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and Spike Jonze winning for Original Screenplay for "Her".

Night of futility for "American Hustle" which went 0-10.  "Nebraska" 0-6 and "Capt. Phillips" 0-5 and "Wolf of Wall Street" 0-5.

THE FAC ON A HOT STREAK

The normally 75% accurate Film Awards Clearinghouse went 22 of 24 last night...a whopping 92%.  The FAC missed Animated Short calling it for "Get A Horse" and it went to "Mr. Hublot".  The FAC also missed "Her" for Original Screenplay, though, to be fair, I did point out that it was a dead heat.  I just leaned the wrong way.

After the 14 of 15 mark last fall on the final "Ten Bets" list of films that would play the festival...maybe I'm starting to figure this thing out a little bit.

AND THE TRANSITION

And so Oscar #86 is over as is the book on TFF #40.  Michael's Telluride Film Blog returns to its roots over the next month or so as we turn our attention away from what was to what could be on Labor Day weekend in the San Juans some six months from now.

My thanks to Larry and Mitzi Mallard of The River Club in Telluride who have made it possible for my wife and I to attend each year since 2006.

Thanks also to the various members of the media who have been so kind to me over these last few years as I've continued this experiment.

Thanks to my wife, Kristy, for indulging this crazed obsession.

And thanks to all of you who drop in and read these ramblings from time to time.

See you in Telluride on Aug. 29th!

More, as usual, on Thursday.

The (Mostly) Final FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Oscar Predictions/Finals

Welcome to Thursday...

THE FINAL FAC...MOSTLY

Well, it's been nearly six months since The CEO and I rolled into Telluride for their 40th Film Festival.  That weekend, as I fully expected, got the Oscar ball rolling toward its 86th iteration.  At the end of that glorious weekend, I think everyone knew that "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" were serious players and that "Nebraska" might be.  There were also lofty expectations for "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "All is Lost" which never really fully materialized.

It all comes to a conclusion on Sunday night with the presentation of 24 Oscars, 21 in feature categories and three in Shorts categories.

Here's the Film Awards Clearinghouse's final take on what should/could go down on Sunday night though I might post an update or two before the ceremony actually begins.

For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

THE LOCKS

Out of the 24 categories, a dozen Oscars appear to be locked up including three of the four acting trophies.

"Gravity" appears to be solidly in place to win: Best Direction (Alfonso Cuaron), Original Score, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  It's also a player in other categories as you'll read below.

"Dallas Buyers Club" seems to be a lock for three Oscars: Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto) and Best Makeup/Hair.

"Frozen" has a choke hold on two Oscars: Best Animated Feature as well as Best Song for "Let it Go".

The two other locks are Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and "Get a Horse" as Best Animated Short.

BIG LEADS

There are categories that don't look locked but do have strong favorites.

Best Adapted Screenplay, for example, looks very likely to go to "12 Years a Slave" but there is a slight undercurrent that "Philomena" has a chance to sneak in.

Production Design appears likely to go to "The Great Gatsby" despite some sentiment that "Gravity" could win here or Spike Jonze's "Her".

Short Form Documentary is probably going to "The Lady in #6".  

Sound Editing is probable for "Gravity".

AND THE COMPETITIVE CATEGORIES

Eight Oscar categories appear to have serious races going on including the biggest prize, Best Picture.  

Here's the breakdown of those categories:

Best Live Action Short:  The FAC says "Helium" wins in a squeaker but that "The Voorman Problem" and "Just Before Losing Everything" are also possible.

Costumes: It's now a dead heat between "American Hustle" and "The Great Gatsby".  The FAC says it's a tie.  I'm going to break the tie in favor of "Gatsby".

Film Editing:  "Gravity" is the probable winner (says the FAC) but don't be surprised if "Captain Phillips" picks up this Oscar.

Documentary:  The FAC says "20 Feet from Stardom" but it's a tight category with "The Act of Killing" and "The Square" also real possibilities.

Foreign Language Film:  "The Great Beauty" has an edge here (in a late charge) but "The Hunt" or "The Broken Circle Breakdown" could also win.

Original Screenplay:  This is a real race between "Hustle" and "Her".  The FAC points to "Her".  I'm personally thinking "Hustle".

Best Supporting Actress:  "12 Years a Slave's" Lupita Nyong'o maintains a lead in the FAC metric, but Jennifer Lawrence ("Hustle") could steal a second straight Oscar.

AND BEST PICTURE:

The FAC still says "12 Years a Slave" but "Gravity" hasn't faded and I still think "American Hustle" could split the vote and come out on top.

If the FAC is 100% accurate (and it is historically about 75% accurate)...

"Gravity" ends the night with seven Oscars but that could go as high as nine.

"12 Years a Slave" wins three, including Picture.  "12 Years" could also go home empty handed.  It's best shot to add to its total is likely Costumes.

"Dallas Buyers Club" wins three.

"Frozen"  and "Gatsby" win two each.  "American Hustle" and "Blue Jasmine" each win one Oscar.

FINALS

I have included links here to the final predictions from Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Variety.  I'll be tweeting and posting additional "Finals" over the next three days.

Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/oscars/2014/predictions/

Variety:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/oscar-predictions-who-will-win-sunday-night-1201121529/

And here's the line from Gold Derby as of this morning:

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/144/

More...maybe tomorrow...

Oscar in the Headlights/Directors Talking

Good Monday Everyone...hope you had a good weekend.

OSCAR IN THE HEADLIGHTS

It's down to less than a week until the envelopes are unsealed and the closest Best Picture race in a good long while comes to an end.  I'll have a final FAC Check of the Oscar categories on Thursday with the possibility of some tweaking on Friday and Saturday...maybe even Sunday morning.  As I wrote last week, I am planning to include all 24 Oscar categories including the "Shorts" in this final prognostication.

What's buzzing as we move into the last two days of Oscar balloting (remember balloting must be done by 5PM Pacific Time tomorrow)?

***It's still a horse race for Best Picture.  "12 Years a Slave" with a perceived slight edge over "Gravity" with no one completely dismissing the chance that it could be "American Hustle".

***Almost everyone that thinks they know this stuff is saying that Alfonso Cuaron wins Best Director regardless of the Best Picture outcome.

***Three of the four four acting categories have front runners that seem virtual locks: McConaughey for Actor for "Dallas Buyers Club", Leto for Supporting in the same film and Cate Blanchett for Actress for "Blue Jasmine".  Best Supporting Actress is a closer contest with Lupita Nyong'o Of  "12 Years" perceived to have a small advantage over Jennifer Lawrence for "Hustle".

I have been hearing some buzz about a possible DiCaprio surprise for Actor but Leto and Blanchett appear solid.  There's even a bit of a Chiwetel Ejiofor buzz after his BAFTA win last week.

***"Gravity" is going to win the most trophies Sunday night.  The questions are: How many? and Which ones?

***"Hustle" could end the night with no wins despite having the most nominations of any film (10, tied with "Gravity").  It's best chance is in Original Screenplay where it's thought that it's in a very tight race with "Her".  It's next best chance is Lawrence and its third best shot might actually be Best Picture.

***I mentioned this on my last post, at the end of the night the film with the second most wins may very well be "Dallas Buyers Club" which is seen as likely winning three: Actor, Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair.  If "12 Years" goes down in Best Picture, Supporting Actress and/or Adapted Screenplay all of which could happen.

***As a matter of fact, "12 Years" could go home empty handed.

Anyway, the Oscar season is in full force for six more days...

Here are some of the last few days key Oscar prognosticators:

Gurus of Gold and their "top three" edition:

http://moviecitynews.com/2014/02/gurus-o-gold-top-3/

Also the Gurus "If We Could Sway the Academy" edition:

http://moviecitynews.com/2014/02/gurus-o-gold-if-we-could-sway-the-academy/

Here's a link to Scott Feinberg's next to last Feinberg Forecast...he still has "12 Years" listed on top for Best Picture:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-whos-up-whos-680714

Feinberg has also posted his "Forecast" for the Shorts categories.  You can find that here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-winner-predictions-whos-going-682650

And Sasha Stone has her latest installment of "The State of the Race" in which she says what I say...it's about Telluride:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/the-state-of-the-race-down-to-the-wire-best-picture-still-set-on-telluride-time/

And Stone and Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere have put up a rare version of Oscar Poker as we enter this last week before the awards:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2014/02/oscar-poker-pulse/


DIRECTORS TALKING

Fox Searchlight tweeted this link to an interview with "12 Years a Slave" director Steve McQueen over the weekend:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3f2x189cLoo&feature=youtu.be

And Daniel Montgomery of Gold Derby has this interview with Oscar nominated documentarian and TFF #39 participant Joshua Oppenheimer whose "The act of Killing" is in hot competition to win the Best Doc Oscar on Sunday night:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/5694/oscars-documentary-act-of-killing-joshua-oppenheimer-entertainment-news-37485960.html


More on Thursday...

The Playlist's Top Fifty/Berlin in Progress/"12 Years" Wins USC Scripter

THE PLAYLIST'S TOP FIFTY

On Thursday I took a look at the films that The Playlist had deemed the 100 Most Anticipated films of 2014 focusing on the films that they had placed 51-100 that seemed, at least to me, to be the most Telluride likely films..  Today a look at the films in their list from 1-50 that may have Telluride potential.

#42-"Love and Mercy"-Bill Pohlad directs this biography of Beach Boys legend Brain Wilson with Paul Dano and John Cusack splitting the role.  Pohlad's participation makes this a likely film for Telluride.

#40-"Squirrel to the Nuts"- Peter Bogdonavich returns to directing.  Bogdo has had a long history with Telluride, though I don't think he's been there since 2006 (he is, however, still listed as being on TFF's Council of Advisors) so I'm actually on the fence about whether to include this as a possibility.  "Nuts" stars Jennifer Aniston and Imogen Poots.

#36-"Men, Women and Children"- Jason Reitman's next project would normally be a no-brainer for Telluride but...given that "Labor Day" didn't exactly overwhelm and Toronto's ultimatum from a couple of weeks ago, this film is not as certain for T-ride as it might have been in the past.  Plus, I'm NOT a fan of Adam Sandler...

#34- Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  I have no real, objective reason for this film to be a Telluride possibility save for it's distribution from The Weinstein Company.  Still, I'm keeping it on this (and other) lists...because hope dies hard.

#31-"Mr. Turner"-Mike Leigh's biography of Brit art legend J.M.W. Turner starring Timothy Spall.  SPC has the distribution.  It's a solid bet to play Telluride.

#26-"Eden" Mia Hansen-Love directs with Greta Gerwig in the cast.  Hansen-Love was at Telluride in 2011 with her "Goodbye First Love".  She could easily return.

#17- "Sils Maria" Olivier Assayas could return to Telluride with this film featuring Chloe Grace Moretz, Juliette Binoche and Kristen Stewart.  Assayas has been involved at T-ride previously with "Irma Vep" in '96 and "Carlos" in 2010.  IFC Films has the distribution.

#14 "Two Days One Night"- Marion Cotillard stars in this film from the Dardennes brothers.  I expect a Cannes premiere and a Telluride bow.  The Dardennes were tributed at Telluride in 2005 and also showed "The Kid with a Bike" in 2011.  Sundance Selects has the U.S. distribution for the film.

#10-"Birdman"- Directed and co-written by Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu...his first comedy stars Michael Keaton, Emma Stone and Edward Norton among others.  Inarritu has been a Telluride fixture since "Babel" in 2006.  "Biutiful" played there as well in 2010.  I spoke to him this past year at TFF #40.  He was there...just to be there (and I expect in support of his buddy Alfonso Cuaron).  Fox Searchlight has "Birdman" under its wing.

#8-"While We're Young"-One of two Noah Baumbach projects that could land in the Telluride lineup.  This one stars Ben Stiller and Naomi Watts.  Baumbach has also made Telluride a semi-frequent hangout with "France Ha" in 2012 and "Margot at the Wedding" in 2007.

#5-"Foxcatcher"- Bennett Miller's Olympic wrestling film with Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo and Channing Tatum that got bumped from 2013.  Still regarded as a potential awards vehicle and under the distribution of SPC.  I think/hope this could emerge on Telluride's playlist.



The Playlist's 50 Most Anticipated Films for 2014 can be found here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/we-rank-the-100-most-anticipated-films-of-2014-the-best-films-of-the-2014-20140102


BERLIN IN PROGRESS

The Berlin International Film Festival in Germany has begun.  Berlin has a fair history of providing Telluride programmers with film fare for Labor Day weekend.  In the recent past Berlin exhibited these films that then played Telluride:

2012: "Barbara" and "A Royal Affair"
2011: "A Separation", "The Turin Horse" and "Pina"
2010: None
2009: "Gigante" and "London River"
2008: "Happy Go Lucky" and "I've Loved You So Long"

"The 2013 Berlin Connection":  The overlap between Telluride and Berlin was a little larger last year than usual: "Fifi Howls with Happiness", "Gloria", La Maison de la Radio" and "Slow Food Story".  Four films played both fests.

The Hollywood Reporter filed this story with a comprehensive look at the films playing at Berlin 2014:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/berlin-film-fest-completes-lineup-674602

What might end up at Telluride?  That'll likely depend on buzz and awards at the end of the festival.  At the moment, the films that I think sound intriguing are : "71", "Aloft" and "Two Men in Town".

12 YEARS A SLAVE WINS USC SCRIPTER AWARD

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/solomon-northup-wins-his-first-award-of-the-year-for-12-years-a-slave-at-the-2014-usc-scripter-awards

Philip Seymour Hoffman/More Toronto Ultimatum Coverage/Nebraska Notes/Gravity Goodies/12 Years Tidbit

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN

I don't know where to start.  I hate this.  Philip Seymour Hoffman is dead at 46.  News reports have said heroin overdose is the cause.

We found out early yesterday afternoon...and it made me physically ill.  Angry, sad.

He was so talented and had such range and at 46 had had enough of a career so that we knew how special he was.  That also means that we can know that we've lost another three or four decades of great work from him.

He was branching out...moving into directing and producing.  I was excited to see how those choices played out.  My thinking: a guy this talented might really be able to bring that same spark to every endeavor he undertook.

His body of work is breath taking...I think I really first noticed him in 1992's "Scent of a Woman" playing Chris O'Donnell's feckless classmate.  For the next few years, he'd continue to pop up in some things...then "Boogie Nights" in 1997 and it was game on:

"The Big Lebowski"
"Happiness"
"Magnolia"...dear God, he's good in this...
"The Talented Mr. Ripley"
"State and Main"
"Almost Famous"...dear God, he's good in this...
"Red Dragon"...an excellent Freddy Lounds...not a nice guy
"Cold Mountain"
"Capote"...dear God...you get it.  (Wins the Oscar after having it play in Telluride with PSH in attendance).
"The Savages"  ditto
"Charlie Wilson's War"  best thing in the flick
"Synechdoche, NY"
"Doubt"
"Moneyball"
"The Master"

all this and more and he was 46...

Two things...

I've always thought his career was one you could point to and tell kids (after all I teach high school kids drama) "Here's a guy that proves that talent CAN get noticed, be rewarded and provide a career".

And on a completely selfish level, he was always one of the people on the list I carry in my head that I thought I might actually get to shake hands with on Colorado Ave. in Telluride or at the Patron Brunch. There are some people I'd like to say "thank you" to for the things that they've created that have been meaningful to me.  Because of the fest and the type of projects that PSH has done, I've always harbored the notion that I might be able to say that in person someday...

Not now...




MORE TORONTO ULTIMATUM COVERAGE

I have added a couple of pother posts/articles concerning the announcement for the Toronto Film Festival about their new policy regarding "premieres" and the programming of new films beginning with this year's festival.  As noted last Thursday, the new policy is clearly aimed at Telluride in an attempt to curb the choice of film makers and distributors to play Telluride first and then Toronto after TIFF has billed a film as a World or North American premiere.

From The Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/2014/01/30/why_tiff_had_to_get_tough_over_film_premieres.html

Business Week:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-01-30/toronto-film-fest-insists-on-premieres

The Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/film/tiff-unveils-new-policy-aimed-at-clinching-premiere-status/article16605658/

At this point, the only response that I've seen from the Telluride camp is a Variety story from last week by Dave McNary that quotes TFF Exec. Director Julie Huntsinger saying, essentially, that TFF will continue to do its thing.  I've re-posted the link to that story here:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/telluride-film-festival-wont-back-down-from-sneak-preview-premieres-1201076983/


NEBRASKA NOTES

Alexander Payne's "Nebraska is nominated for six Academy Awards: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  It'll likely win none on Mar. 2.  It's best shot might be Bob Nelson's screenplay but "Her" or "American Hustle" are more likely.  There's maybe an outside shot for Bruce Dern to surprise as Best Actor...but that's very likely Matthew McConaughey's to lose and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) is a more likely spoiler.  Nevertheless, "Nebraska" continues to be among the best reviewed films of the year (currently sitting at #10 on Metacritic for 2013 http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critic-top-10-lists-best-movies-of-2013 ) and it was #3 for me on my TFF #40 list of films (led by 12 Years and Llewyn Davis).

The "Nebraska" crew is keeping the Oscar fires alight however with a number of posts appearing within the last couple of weeks.  I have included a few here:

Deadline.com interviews Alexander Payne:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-alexander-payne-nebraska-interview/

The Carpetbagger/New York Times talks to Oscar nominee June Squibb:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/20/video-the-roots-of-nebraskas-feisty-wife/

The Hollywood Reporter talks to Nebraska score composer Mark Orton:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-nebraskas-composer-wrote-americana-676067


GRAVITY GOODIES

A month from now you can count on hearing this and reading this in any number of places:  "Winner of the most Oscars for 2013, 'Gravity"..." ; because that will be a true statement.  We still don't know what the exact number of Oscars will be for the Alfonso Cuaron film, but it'll be somewhere between  five and nine. Currently I'm thinking seven.

Variety recently posted this video with "Gravity" Oscar nominees Sandra Bullock and Alfonso Cuaron:

http://variety.com/video/oscars-qa-sandra-bullock-and-director-alfonso-cuaron-video/

And I have included a featurette fromHitFix highlighting both Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron talking about story and screenplay here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/new-gravity-featurette-focuses-on-story-and-screenplay


12 YEARS TIDBIT

And here is a lengthy discussion with Steve McQueen about his masterpiece "12 Years a Slave" and other topics from The Walker Art Center and posted by The Playlist here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-extensive-2-hour-talk-with-steve-mcqueen-about-12-years-a-slave-his-filmography-art-more-20140131



More on Thursday...

Rudderless Rising/Cuaron Wins the DGA/Lupita Interview/TFF #41 and J.C. Chandor?/Making it in the Big Leagues

Welcome to Monday!

RUDDERLESS RISING

Standing ovation for William H. Macy's "Rudderless" at The Sundance Film Festival this past weekend.

Sundance's closing premiere, "Rudderless" premiered for Sundance audiences Friday night to a standing ovation.  The film was screened a second time on Sunday morning...also a standing ovation.  I have read half a dozen reviews of the film and five of the six range from good to ecstatic.  Variety is the one review that wasn't impressed with the film written by Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison and shot in Oklahoma last spring.

I am including links to reviews from The Hollywood Reporter, /Film, HitFix, The Playlist and WeLiveFilm:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/review/rudderless-sundance-review-674066

http://www.slashfilm.com/william-h-macys-directorial-debut-rudderless-is-a-tale-of-two-half-notes-sundance-14-review/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sundance-review-rudderless-is-a-remarkable-directorial-debut-from-william-h-macy-20140124

http://welivefilm.com/sundance-2014-rudderless-review-moviemanmenzel/

There are plenty of blurb-worthy quotes to chose from and that you can expect to see in future marketing for the film.  As to The Variety review, I'm an unrepentant fan of the film...so you can google it yourself if you want to read it.

If you have seen other reviews of the film, please drop me a note via the comments and I'll post those as well.

In other Sundance news, the biggest prize winner in the competition section was for "Whiplash" which opened the festival.  The film stars Miles Teller and J.K. Simmons and was written and directed by Damien Chazelle and focuses on the world of music...in this case drumming.  "Whiplash" won the top dramatic prize and the audience award both on Saturday night.


CUARON WINS THE DGA

Also on Saturday night...late Saturday night, the Directors Guild of America named Alfonso Cuaron the best feature film director of the year for "Gravity".  That solidifies the thinking that he will likely win the Oscar for the same feat and also boosts the chance that "Gravity" wins Best Picture on Oscar night.

It will be interesting to see how much the DGA win moves the tone of the Oscar pundits.  Over the last week the very strong popular narrative has been that "12 Years a Slave" would win Best Picture and tat Cuaron would win Best Director.  After the PGA tie between the two films last week, there was also a lot of discussion about what effect the DGA winner might have.

Though a split between Best Picture and Best Director is rare, it does happen.  It happened last year when Ang Lee won directing for "Life of Pi" and "Argo" won Best Picture.

Lost i the shuffle, at least a little bit over the past week has been "American Hustle" which looked like a house on fire after the SAG and Golden Globes and also after nomination morning when it co-lead the field (along with "Gravity") with 10 nominations.  I personally don't think you can completely write off its chances of winning Best Picture as it seems to have a lot of love from actors and that's the largest branch, by far, of the Academy's membership.

I also have to say that a real left field surprise could happen too.  I can see these three top films splitting #1 votes enough to allow a "compromise" candidate to emerge victorious.  Some of the Oscar elite think that could be "Philomena".  My "surprise" winner is "Dallas Buyers Club".  It's likely winning at least statues on Oscar night for Best Actor and Supporting Actor (McConaughey and Leto).  In addition to Best Picture, it has two other important nominations: Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing.  It also has a nomination for Makeup/Hair.  It also appears to be adored by the actors.  I'm telling you that if had scored a Best Direction nomination, it would be a serious part of the conversation.

The other "surprise" possibility: Alexander Payne's "Nebraska".  It even has a Best Directing nomination.  It's weakness is that it will likely not win a single Oscar that it's nominated for.  In addition to Best Picture and Direction; it's nominated for Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  I think that had it picked up an Editing nomination, it might be a bigger topic of conversation as well.

Bottom line...I'm still of a mind that "12 Years" wins Best Picture but I have to accede to the dominant thinking at this point.   Up until Saturday night, I had still thought that Steve McQueen would win Best Director come Oscar night (and that could still happen...DGA and Oscar don't always agree on Direction) but too much points to Cuaron winning Best Director.  It seems the split is likely or even that "Gravity" may have a near "Titanic"/"Lord of the Rings; Return of the King" type night.

LUPITA INTERVIEW

Oscar nominated for "12 Years a Slave" (and perhaps a slight front runner), Lupita N'yong'o, spoke recently to The Carpetbagger/The New York Times.  Here's that interview:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/23/video-lupita-nyongo/

TFF #41 AND J.C. CHANDOR?

A24 films have acquired the rights to writer/director J.C. Chandor's third feature: "A Most Violent Year". The film stars Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain.  I think it has a real chance to play at Telluirde #41 this Labor Day.  Reasons:  I spoke briefly last to both Chandor and Isaac at last year's festival, and both men seem to be having a great time.  Additionally, A24 has emerged as an occasional presence at Telluride with films playing as a part of the program in 2012 with "Ginger and Rosa' and last year with "Under the Skin".

Biggest reason that it might not play TFF #41...it hasn't started shooting yet.


MAKING IT IN THE BIG LEAGUES

This is completely unnecessary, but...

As you might expect, The Telluride Film Festival has official photographers and videographers.  I have to admit that I've always hoped that somehow, Kris and I might find ourselves in one of their shots someday.   You know, sort of as tangible proof to the rest of the world (and maybe even to ourselves) that we were actually there. The Fest puts out an annual Yearbook, there are certainly a ton of pictures from the fest as it's going on but it's never happened.  Until this year.

I was perusing the Fest's website recently and trolling through the official photos when I found this one from the Patron's Brunch:

Ostensibly this is a photo of past Guest directors Michal Ondaatje (author of "The English Patient") and Salman Rushdie author of "The Satanic Verses").  If you look at the background, to the left of Rushdie, you can see me standing (dressed in blue)  and looking out over the crowd.  Kris is blocked by the very nice woman in the salmon shirt (not Salman-ha!).  She's the artist who makes the medallions each years for the tributees.

Yes, that's really me behind Ondaatje and Rushdie...and I'm looking at a crowd that included Robert Redford, Francis Ford Coppola, Bruce Dern, The Coen Brothers, T.Bone Burnett and others. 

Objective photographic evidence my friends...I guess it really did happen.

More on Thursday...

The Film Awards Clearinghouse-Oscar 2014 Predictions/Rudderless Sets Sail

Welcome to Thursday!

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE-OSCAR WINNING PREDICTIONS

Well, we all know what the nominees are.  Now begins the nearly six week long process of determining Oscar winners.  The ceremony is set for Mar. 2nd (particularly late this year, reportedly to avoid conflicting with the presentation of the Winter Olympics).  Final ballots don't even go out until the middle of February.

All of that is to get to this...a first look at who or what the experts think the winners will be on Mar. 2nd.

For this first pass at predicting Oscars winners, I have drawn on six of the nine experts I have used throughout the season.  This is for a variety of reasons.  Of the three experts I usually use, some haven't updated their predictions yet or are predicting only in a limited fashion.  So, the six experts that I have used to calibrate this first set of Oscar winner predictions are:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Films/actors are listed in order of the likelihood that they will win that category.  I also am focused on 13 categories with the majority of the technical and shorts categories on hold for the moment.

Telluride Films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) American Hustle
2) 12 Years a Slave
3) Gravity
4) Captain Phillips
5) Nebraska
6) The wolf of Wall Street
7) Philomena
8) Dallas Buyers Club
9) Her

Comment:  Best Picture is perceived to be a real barn burner.  In raw numbers "Hustle" and "12 Years" were actually tied.  "Hustle" edged into the top spot on a tie breaker.  "Gravity" is also very, very close.  Personally, I still think "12 Years a Slave" is going to win the Best Picture Oscar.  You can also find someone as an advocate for the potential "spoiler" scenarios for almost every one of the other six films nominated.  My personal "left field" pick is "Dallas Buyers Club".  Its Film Editing nomination as well as its likely win in two acting categories tells me that the Academy really loves this film.

DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
2) David O. Russell/American Hustle
3) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
4) Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street
5) Alexander Payne/Nebraska

Comment: This group of experts is pretty convinced that there will be a split between Best Picture and Best Direction for the second straight year.  I'm not as convinced.  I still think that there's a reasonable chance that McQueen wins.  The DGA winner may point us to the eventual Oscar winner, but I don't even think that's carved in stone.

Last note, I might be okay with Cuaron winning this instead of McQueen.  Putting "Gravity" together is an impressive feat.

ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity
3) Amy Adams/American Hustle
4) Judi Dench/Philomena
5) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County

Comment: Blanchett is the first of six nominees that are unanimous choices in their categories at this point. She's the very definition of a prohibitive favorite.  At this point, anyone else winning this category on Oscar night would rank as an historic upset.

ACTOR

1) Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf if Wall Street
5) Christian Bale/American Hustle

Comment: McConaughey is a strong favorite here, but it's not unanimous.  There's a significant amount of support for Ejiofor and a Bruce Dern win isn't completely out of the question.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave
2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
3) June Squibb/Nebraska
4) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine
5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County

Comment:  I'm more than a little surprised that Nyong'o is a unanimous favorite in this category.  All six of my experts say she'll win.  Frankly, I think that it's a lot closer than that between her and Lawrence.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
3) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle
4) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips
5) Jonah Hill/American Hustle

Comment: Leto is the unanimous choice here.  Any other winner would be a shock.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) American Hustle
2) Her
3) Nebraska
4) Blue Jasmine
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment:  This is a pretty tough category between the top three screenplays.  On Oscar night, I think that this might actually be the only Oscar that "Hustle" wins.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Philomena
3) The Wolf of Wall Street
4) Captain Phillips
5) Before Midnight

Comment: John Ridley's "12 Years a Slave" script is the unanimous choice to win this category.

FILM EDITING

1) Gravity
2) American Hustle
3) 12 Years a Slave
4) Captain Phillips
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment: "Gravity" isn't a unanimous choice, but it's pretty close.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity
2) Inside Llewyn Davis
3) Nebraska
4) Prisoners
5) The Grandmaster

Comment: "Gravity" is a unanimous choice.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Hunt (TFF #39)
2) The Great Beauty
3) The Broken Circle Breakdown
4) Omar
5) The Missing Picture

Comment:  Any of the top three could win.  The category is very, very tight.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frozen
2) The Wind Rises
3) The Croods
4) Despicable Me 2
5) Ernest and Celestine

Comment: "Frozen" is the sixth film in these 13 categories that is a unanimous pick to win.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Feet from Stardom
2) The Act of Killing (TFF #39)
3) The Square
4) Dirty Wars
5) Cutie and the Boxer

Comment:  "20 Feet" is a strong favorite.

The FAC says (in these 13 categories) that  "Gravity" wins three, "12 Years" wins two,  "American Hustle" wins two, "Dallas Buyers Club" wins two.

Should The FAC have this right (and remember , we're still over a month away) Telluride films pick up five Oscars in these thirteen categories and I think "Slave" beats "Hustle" for the sixth.  Also, a win for "The Hunt" makes it another T-ride Oscar albeit from TFF #39.

RUDDERLESS SETS SAIL

Well, it is finally upon us.  Oklahoma generated film "Rudderless" closes The Sundance Film Festival tomorrow night.  It's been awhile in coming.  I've been talking about it, off and on, for almost four years.  I met co-author Casey Twenter in Kansas City in the summer of 2010 after we had been emailing for a number of months.  Casey had contacted me because he'd found the blog and was interested in Telluride. Over the years, I've been privileged to read two different versions of the script and follow, at a distance, the ups and downs along the way.  It's been a hell of a ride.  There have been a number of incarnations featuring different directing, producing and acting possibilities...stuff I really can't write about.

I am very happy for Casey and his writing partner Jeff Robison who were fortunate to have William H. Macy fall in love with the script.  I'll tell you, that fortune is only a small part of the story.  It was always a good script and Macy is fortunate to have had it fall into his lap and recognize the quality.

"Rudderless" has actually already screened for industry types and the first word is oozing out of corners (including an actual review at /Film (Slashfilm).  The "early ooze" seems pretty positive.

/Film review:

Here's  sample of some of the commentary from the review by /Film writer Germain Lussier:

"Rudderless...a complex story of love, loss, friendship and music"

"it's a touching movie with a fantastic lead performance and even better music."

"Macy is in control of our emotions"

"There is a lot to like about Rudderless"

I have friends who, I think, thought I was putting them on at times over these last four years; who didn't believe that the project existed, took place in Oklahoma, would ever make it in front of cameras or would find its way to a theater.  Well, tomorrow night in Park City, Utah, all those doubts will be put to rest.

I'll be anxiously awaiting to see the critical response and to see what distribution outfit picks the film up...come on TWC, Fox Searchlight and SPC.

Congratulations Casey and Jeff...you dreamed it and it's about to happen!  On behalf of all of us on the fringe of the film business and who harbor dreams of being a little less on the fringe, thanks!  "Rudderless" gives us all hope!

Finally, a note to Gary Meyer, Julie Huntsinger and Telluride programmers...I know that the Sundance/Telluride crossover film is very rare (seems like it happens about once every five years or so) and the last one was "An Education" (2009)...so, if the eventual distributor hasn't already released this film by Labor Day...TFF #41?  Give it a thought.

More on Monday...have a good weekend!