Thursday, February 27, 2014

The (Mostly) Final FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Oscar Predictions/Finals

Welcome to Thursday...


Well, it's been nearly six months since The CEO and I rolled into Telluride for their 40th Film Festival.  That weekend, as I fully expected, got the Oscar ball rolling toward its 86th iteration.  At the end of that glorious weekend, I think everyone knew that "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" were serious players and that "Nebraska" might be.  There were also lofty expectations for "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "All is Lost" which never really fully materialized.

It all comes to a conclusion on Sunday night with the presentation of 24 Oscars, 21 in feature categories and three in Shorts categories.

Here's the Film Awards Clearinghouse's final take on what should/could go down on Sunday night though I might post an update or two before the ceremony actually begins.

For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit


Out of the 24 categories, a dozen Oscars appear to be locked up including three of the four acting trophies.

"Gravity" appears to be solidly in place to win: Best Direction (Alfonso Cuaron), Original Score, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  It's also a player in other categories as you'll read below.

"Dallas Buyers Club" seems to be a lock for three Oscars: Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto) and Best Makeup/Hair.

"Frozen" has a choke hold on two Oscars: Best Animated Feature as well as Best Song for "Let it Go".

The two other locks are Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and "Get a Horse" as Best Animated Short.


There are categories that don't look locked but do have strong favorites.

Best Adapted Screenplay, for example, looks very likely to go to "12 Years a Slave" but there is a slight undercurrent that "Philomena" has a chance to sneak in.

Production Design appears likely to go to "The Great Gatsby" despite some sentiment that "Gravity" could win here or Spike Jonze's "Her".

Short Form Documentary is probably going to "The Lady in #6".  

Sound Editing is probable for "Gravity".


Eight Oscar categories appear to have serious races going on including the biggest prize, Best Picture.  

Here's the breakdown of those categories:

Best Live Action Short:  The FAC says "Helium" wins in a squeaker but that "The Voorman Problem" and "Just Before Losing Everything" are also possible.

Costumes: It's now a dead heat between "American Hustle" and "The Great Gatsby".  The FAC says it's a tie.  I'm going to break the tie in favor of "Gatsby".

Film Editing:  "Gravity" is the probable winner (says the FAC) but don't be surprised if "Captain Phillips" picks up this Oscar.

Documentary:  The FAC says "20 Feet from Stardom" but it's a tight category with "The Act of Killing" and "The Square" also real possibilities.

Foreign Language Film:  "The Great Beauty" has an edge here (in a late charge) but "The Hunt" or "The Broken Circle Breakdown" could also win.

Original Screenplay:  This is a real race between "Hustle" and "Her".  The FAC points to "Her".  I'm personally thinking "Hustle".

Best Supporting Actress:  "12 Years a Slave's" Lupita Nyong'o maintains a lead in the FAC metric, but Jennifer Lawrence ("Hustle") could steal a second straight Oscar.


The FAC still says "12 Years a Slave" but "Gravity" hasn't faded and I still think "American Hustle" could split the vote and come out on top.

If the FAC is 100% accurate (and it is historically about 75% accurate)...

"Gravity" ends the night with seven Oscars but that could go as high as nine.

"12 Years a Slave" wins three, including Picture.  "12 Years" could also go home empty handed.  It's best shot to add to its total is likely Costumes.

"Dallas Buyers Club" wins three.

"Frozen"  and "Gatsby" win two each.  "American Hustle" and "Blue Jasmine" each win one Oscar.


I have included links here to the final predictions from Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Variety.  I'll be tweeting and posting additional "Finals" over the next three days.



And here's the line from Gold Derby as of this morning:

More...maybe tomorrow...

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