Monday, February 17, 2014

The FAC Checks the Big Oscars/BAFTAs/Berlin Ends/125,000

Welcome to Monday!


With two weeks left before the ceremony and ballots in the hands of Academy members (or web based voting open) and since it's been three weeks since we first did a FAC Check on the 13 "major" Oscar races, here's where the race is with one caveat.  That being that I collated all of this info before this past weekend's BAFTA Awards announcements.  Will they, could they have an effect with Oscar ballots not due until Feb. 25th?  Some pundits think they might, especially in what are perceived to be tight races.  I.E.  Best Picture.

I'll post a final pre-Oscar FAC for the 21 feature categories at least and the three Shorts categories if I can gather enough data on the Thursday before Oscar (Feb. 27).  I may tweak that forecast on Oscar morning if it seems like things may have moved in that last 72 hours.

And with that...

Films/actors are listed in order of the likelihood that they will win that category.  The positions of the nominees from the last FAC for these categories is in parenthesis.

For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Telluride Films are Bold.


1) 12 Years a Slave (2)
2) Gravity (3)
3) American Hustle (1)
4) Captain Phillips (4)
5) Nebraska (5)
6) Philomena (7)
7) The Wolf of Wall Street (6)
8) Dallas Buyers Club (8)
9) Her (9)

Note: The "American Hustle" boom that came from the surprise of nominations in all four acting categories and a tie for the most number of nominations has subsided a bit.  It still is a realistic possibility for Best Picture but most pundits have reverted back to the notion that it's a two horse race between "12 Years" and "Gravity".  They're actually tied in the FAC rubric, but the tie breaker I use breaks in favor of the Steve McQueen film.  Make no mistake though, this Best Picture race is as tight as one could imagine.


1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity (1)
2) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave (3)
3) David O. Russell/American Hustle (2)
4) Marin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street (4)
5) Alexander Payne/Nebraska (5)

Note: The slide of "Hustle" is also reflected in the Director's race from which Steve McQueen ostensibly benefits.  But...all of the experts that I list above are now predicting Cuaron to win.  This is one of eight categories among the 13 I'm listing here that the number one listed nominee is a unanimous choice from the prognosticators.


1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine (1)
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity (2)
3) Amy Adams/American Hustle (3)
4) Judi Dench/Philomena (4)
5) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County (5)

Note: Cate unanimously.  I finally saw the performance.  She ought to win.


1) Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club (1)
2) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave (2)
3) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf of Wall Street (4)
4) Bruce Dern/Nebraska (3)
5) Christian Bale/American Hustle (5)

Note: Matt unanimously.  I'd be inclined to vote for Ejiofor personally.


1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (2)
3) June Squibb/Nebraska (3) 
4) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (5)
5) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (4)

Note: Despite what was perceived as a fairly tight race three weeks ago, Nyong'o has become the unanimous choice here.  (NOTE: These numbers were crunched prior to Jennifer Lawrence's BAFTA win Sunday.  I expect to see some tightening in this race over the next week.)


1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (1)
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (3)
4) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips (4)
5) Jonah Hill/The Wolf of Wall street (5)

Note: Leto is unanimous.  Should DBC pick up Actor and Supporting Actor as expected and Best Makeup/Hair, as also expected, it could have the second biggest Oscar haul with 3 especially if "Gravity" picks up Best Picture instead of "12 Years".


1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Philomena (2)
3) The Wolf of Wall Street (3)
4) Captain Phillips (4)
5) Before Midnight (5)

Note: "12 Years" and John Ridley are a unanimous choice here.


1) American Hustle (1)
2) Her (2)
3) Nebraska (3)
4) Blue Jasmine (4)
5) Dallas Buyers Club (5)

Note:  This race is about as tight as Best Picture.    It's very likely that if "Hustle" or "Her" win it will be that film's only Oscar of the night.


1) Gravity (1)
2) Captain Phillips (4)
3) American Hustle (2)
4) 12 Years a Slave (3)
5) Dallas Buyers Club (5)

Note:  This category seems pretty competitive.  "Gravity" is still in front but "Captain Phillips" profile has sky-rocketed these last three weeks.  Winning the ACE award will do that.  Among the categories in which "Gravity" is the leader, this category would seem to be the most likely to see an "upset".


1) Gravity (1)
2) Inside Llewyn Davis (2)
3) Prisoners (4)
4) Nebraska (3)
5) The Grandmaster (5)

Note: "Gravity" is the unanimous choice.


1) The Hunt (1) (TFF #39)
2) The Great Beauty (2)
3) The Broken Circle Breakdown (3)
4) Omar (4)
5) The Missing Picture (5)

Note: Still a very competitive category between the top three films.


1) Frozen (1)
2) The Croods (3)
3) The Wind Rises (2)
4) Despicable Me 2 (4)
5) Ernest and Celestine (5)

Note: "Frozen" is everyone's pick.


1) 20 Feet from Stardom (1)
2) The Act of Killing (2) (TFF #39)
3) The Square (3)
4) Cutie and the Boxer (5)
5) Dirty Wars (4)

Note: "20 Feet" is a modest favorite.  "Act of Killing" and "The Square" are both still in the mix.

Overall thoughts:  Eight of these 13 categories are unanimous at this point: Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature and Cinematography.  Only five appear to be competitive: Picture, Original Screenplay, Documentary Feature, Editing and Foreign Language.

If the FAC is 100% accurate (and remember, The FAC is probably around 75% accurate) then the breakdown for winners in these categories goes like this:

"Gravity" wins three: Director, Cinematography and Editing
"12 Years" wins three: Picture, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay
"Dallas Buyers Club" wins two: Actor and Supporting Actor
And one each for: "Blue Jasmine" (Actress), "Frozen" (Animated Feature), "20 Feet from Stardom (Documentary Feature), "American Hustle" (Original Screenplay) and "The Hunt" (Foreign Language).

If you add anticipated Oscars for the other eight categories from last Thursday's post "Gravity" gets an additional four (for a total of seven), "The Great Gatsby" gets two.  "DBC" adds one (as mentioned above for a total of three) and "Frozen" adds Best Original Song.

At the end of Oscar evening multiple winners would be:

"12 Years a Slave"-3
"Dallas Buyers Club"-3
"Frozen" -2
"The Great Gatsby"-2

Count those ballots and place your bets!


The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their film awards yesterday.  It's the last major "precursor" prior to the Oscars in just under two weeks.  The complete results are linked here from Awards Daily:

Much like what the latest FAC above tells us, BAFTA awarded "Gravity" several trophies, six in all including Best Direction, but went with "12 Years a Slave" for Best Film.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the BAFTA evening was Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) winning Supporting ACtress over Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave).  "Hustle" also picked up Original Screenplay while Adapted went to "Philomena".

Do these results tell us anything about Oscar?  I'm not sure they change anything about Best Picture or Director.  They may point to a tightening in Supporting Actress and also that "hustle" may have a slight edge over "Her" for the Original Script Oscar.


Anne Thompson reports on the end of the Berlinale and films that were recognized.

Does this put Golden Bear winner "Black Coal, Thin Ice" on the radar for Telluride?  Probably.  Especially considering that "Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" is likley off the table as it was a Sundance premiere and Wes Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel" opens in less than three weeks.  Perhaps also getting some Telluride consideration: Best Screenplay winner Kreuzweg (Stations of the Cross).

Over the past six years these films have played both Berlin and Telluride:

2013: "Gloria", 'Fifi Howls with Happiness", "La Maison de la Radio" and "Slow Food Story"
2012: "Barbara" and "A Royal Affair"
2011: "A Separation", "The Turin Horse" and "Pina"
2010: None
2009: "Gigante" and "London River"
2008: "Happy Go Lucky" and "I've Loved You So Long"


And over the weekend, Michael's Telluride Film Blog logged its 125,000th view.  That's a quarter of a million eyeballs...

More on Thursday!

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