Oscar #97 in the Rear View / Forging Ahead

OSCAR #97 IN THE REAR VIEW

Sunday night's Oscar ceremony brought few, if any, real upsets.  I personally was 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate which is among the lowest rates of success since I started posting Oscar predictions on this site. 

Still, in the case of the seven misses, my "Possible Upset" picked up the statuette in five of the seven categories: Actress, Documentary, Animated Feature, Editing and Documentary Short.  Leaving out the Shorts categories, I was a much more respectable 16 of 20 for 80% among the Feature categories.

I felt some better the next morning when Gold Derby posted the records of their experts..  Had I been among them (there are 38 of them) I would have tied for eighth overall.  Among those with which I tied were Indiewire's Anne Thompson and The Contending's Mark Johnson.  Some experts over which I had a better score were: The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg (65.2%), Deadline's Pete Hammond (65.2%), ABC's Peter Travers (56.5%)  and Variety's Clayton Davis (56.5%).

So, as I said after the nominations dropped in January...where do I apply to be a Gold Derby expert?

Again. TFF films nabbed 10 Oscars.  That's the best since the 2016 edition of TFF when fest films earned 12 Oscars (the year of Moonlight and La La Land).  This year's collection is either tied for second or third most depending if you count the 2008 year wherein Slumdog Millionaire won eight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which won three.  Button only screened a few minutes as a part of the tribute to David Fincher.  So 2008 might be eight or eleven if you count Button.

TFF's 2013 edition had 10 Oscars.  That was the 12 Years a Slave (3) and Gravity (7) year.

Here's another thing that I found revealing.  Since I started the polling of Telluride attendees both with the People and the Professionals TFF has had nine films win Best Picture:

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Birdman

Spotlight

Moonlight

The Shape of Water

Parasite

Nomadland***

Anora

Eight of the nine finished at #1 on the Composite Telluride ratings where I add the ratings from the People and the Professionals together.  The only exception was Nomadland which, of course, couldn't be polled as the fest didn't happen due to Covid.  I still count it as TFF film Best Picture Oscar winner as the fest went out of its way  to premiere the film in Los Angeles as a Drive-In experience.

Seems to me that hitting that #1 Composite spot is kind of telling.  

Other films since I started polling that had the #1 Composite rating but did not win Best Picture:

2018- Roma

2021-The Power of the Dog

2022-TAR

2023-Poor Things

Anora became the 12th TFF film to win Best Picture.

Of the 12, six World Premiered at Telluride: 

Slumdog Millionaire

The King's Speech

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Moonlight

Nomadland (see above)

Three screened at Venice before Telluride:

Birdman

Spotlight

The Shape of Water

Three screened at Cannes before telluride:

The Artist

Parasite

Anora

Of the five other films that have won Best Picture since Slumdog in 2008, no other festival World Premiered the subsequent Best Picture more than once:

2009: The Hurt Locker (Venice, so it totals five)

2018: Green Book (Toronto)

2021: CODA (Sundance)

2022: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (South by Southwest)

2023: Oppenheimer (No Festival appearance)

FORGING AHEAD

So Oscar is done for another season and MTFB turns to the sleuthing of films for the TFF #52 lineup.  Regular readers have already seen some analysis here based on "Most Anticipated" lists from a couple of outlets since the turn of the year.

Now our attention will turn to two primary areas that can give clues...early Oscar predictions and Cannes speculation.  I'll start parsing that with Monday's post.

For those who might remember last year's debacle concerning purchasing tickets...no problem this year.  We've got them and lodging locked down.  Bring on TFF #52!

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Oscar Update: Best Actor / IDA Nominations and TFF #47 / Dweck and Kershaw on The Truffle Hunters / Italy Chooses Notturno / THR's Favorites of the Decade

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 29th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2)

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (1)

3) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods/ (4)

4) Gary Oldman/Mank (3)

5) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (6)

6) Tom Hanks/News of the World (5)

7) Steven Yeun/Minari (7)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (-)

9) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (8)

10) George Clooney/The Midnight Sky (-)

Others: Colin Firth/Supernova, Daniel Kaluuya or LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

Hot: Bosman, Ahmed, Ben-Adir, Clooney

Not: Firth

IDA NOMINATIONS AND TFF #47

The International Documentary Association announced nominations for this year's crop of docs and a couple of TFF #47 films were among the most nominated.  Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's The Truffle Hunters and Sam Pollard's MLK/FBI were two of the most honored films as each film nabbed three nominations apiece.  

The Truffle Hunters (which admittedly has now become a bit of an obsession for me this awards season) was nominated for Best Feature Doc, Director(s) and Cinematography.  

Meanwhile, MLK/FBI was nominated for Best Doc Feature, Director an ABC Video Source Award and Director Sam Pollard was also cited for a career achievement.

Also from TFF #47, short docs The Lost Astronaut from director Ben Proudfoot was nominated as was Unforgivable from director Marlen Vinayo.

The complete list of IDA nominees is linked here from Next Best Picture.

DWECK AND KERSHAW ON THE TRUFFLE HUNTERS

A couple of big interviews this week with the directors of The Truffle Hunters.  Eric Kohn of Indiewire leads a 40ish minute video interview with Gregory Kershaw and Michael Dweck about the film as a part of the IDA Documentary Screening Series.  That is here from YouTube:

Additionally, Dweck and Kershaw also were interviewed by Pat Saperstein for Variety and that was posted yesterday.  That interview/profile is linked here.

ITALY CHOOSES NOTTURNO

Italy has anmed Gianfranco Rosi's documentary, Notturno as its official selection for competition for the Academy Awards Best International Feature category.  The film was a selection of TFF #47.  Notturno is described as:

"a new documentary is an immersive portrait of those trying to survive in the war-torn Middle East."

In addition to TFF #47, the film was also selected by Toronto, New York, London, IDFA and the AFI Fest among others.

Notturno was chosen over the Edoardo Ponti project The Life Ahead which features the first performance from legend Sophia Loren since Rob Marshall's Nine in 2009.

Variety has the story here.

THR'S FAVORITES OF THE DECADE

The Hollywood Reporter polled 3,500 "industry professionals" and asked them for their "favorite movies" of the decade.  The results of that poll were published Wednesday and TFF films did well.  Among the top 20 fave films of the decade that made an appearance at TFF:

#20 The King's Speech

#11 Birdman

#9 Argo

#6 La La Land

#2 12 Years a Slave

Lots of big budget actioners and superhero films made the list and Jordan Peele's Get Out was named the overall favorite of the decade.

The complete list of 20 films from THR can be found linked here.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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The Captain Sails to New York/Another Possibility/Argo Art

Good Tuesday to All…

THE CAPTAIN SAILS TO NEW YORK

Yesterday’s announcement the Paul Greengrass’ “Captain Phillips” starring Tom Hanks will be the opening night film for the New York Film festival all but killed the chances that it will be part of the Telluride lineup.  Had it been any other part of NYFF I’d suggest that there was still some possibility that we might see the film over Labor Day.  But the opening night position is exclusive so mark it off.

There had been a good deal of increased notice about the Telluride potential for “Captain Phillips” over the last week to 10 days especially in light of mentions in some major film blogs that a Telluride spot was very possible.

Too bad, I say.  I would have love to have seen the film and Tom Hanks on Colorado Ave.

Finally, this kind of thing happens every year.  There are always trails this blog goes down that turn out to be false leads.  Not a surprise, really.  When you’re trying to ferret out a secret lineup from the outside…that’s going to occur.  This situation is particularly disappointing, though, simply because I wanted it to be true very badly.

Oh well….

Here are a number of yesterday’s stories about the NYFF announcement:

The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/why-tom-hanks-captain-phillips-594925

Hollywood Elsewhere:
http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2013/07/nyff-phillips-splash/

The Dissolve:
http://thedissolve.com/news/122-paul-greengrass-captain-phillips-will-open-the-new/

The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/paul-greengrass-captain-phillips-to-open-51st-nyff-new-york-film-festival-check-out-new-pics-posters-20130729

The New York Times:
http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/29/new-york-film-festival-will-open-with-captain-phillips/

The Wrap:
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/captain-phillips-open-new-york-film-festival-106596

Thompson on Hollywood:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/new-york-film-festival-to-open-with-paul-greengrass-captain-phillips-starring-tom-hanks

 MEANWHILE…ANOTHER POSSIBILITY…

David O. Russell’s Abscam based film “American Hustle” is looming out there.  No Toronto selection (though Toronto is supposed to announce another wave of films to their lineup today…coverage of it here tomorrow).  “American Hustle” stars Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence and Christian Bale.  New photos of the film emerged yesterday as evidenced above.  Here’s the rest of that story from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-oscar-for-best-haircuts-goes-to-david-o-russells-american-hustle-in-these-first-look-images-20130729


AND A PIECE OF TFF #39

Wired.com reports that you’ll have a shot at a piece of Oscar history as the artwork that was used by the CIA in the real life inspiration for  Ben Affleck’s “Argo” will be put to auction.

Take a look at that story here:

http://www.wired.com/underwire/2013/07/kirby-argo-art-auction/

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More on Wednesday…

There's Got to Be a Morning After

Good Post-Oscar Monday to All that have dialed up the blog today...

OSCAR MATTERS

Here's the rundown of last night's Oscar winners and a comment or two along the way.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: "Paperman".  FAC gets this right and this was the first film at TFF #39 to win an Oscar for the evening.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: "Curfew".  FAC correct.  Telluride possible "Asad" does not win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "Inocente".  FAC goes 3 for 3 in the "short" film categories; a feat that would normally guarantee a stunning overall success rate for the night...hmmm...didn't happen.

BEST SOUND MIXING: "Les Miserables".  FAC correct.

BEST SOUND EDITING: The FAC had "Life of Pi" winning this barely over winners , that's right, winners...plural, an Oscar tie between "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty".  Various experts reported that it was the 6th tie in Oscar history.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: "Life of Pi".  FAC right.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR: "Les Miserables".  FAC right.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "Anna Karenina"  The FAC gets it right.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: "Lincoln".  This was a mild surprise over "Anna Karenina".  This was also 1 of 4 categories in which I had suggested that the metric might be wrong.  My "hunch", however was the "Life of Pi" would win.

BEST SCORE: "Life of Pi".  The FAC was back on track here.

BEST SONG: "Skyfall" from "Skyfall".  The FAC is right and there was never much doubt, although Adele's performance seemed to be overshadowed by Jennifer Hudson's and Barbra Streisand's and the Les Mis cast...at least to me.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "Brave".  The FAC was leaning to "Wreck-It Ralph" so it misses.  I had a hunch that it might be "Brave".

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:  "Amour".  FAC gets this right.  "Amour's" only win of the night.  The FAC had it edging into the Original Screenplay Oscar and I had a hunch that Emmanuelle Riva would win Best Actress.  Nevertheless, this was the 2nd Oscar of the night for TFF #39 films.

BEST DOCUMENTARY:  "Searching for Sugarman".  FAC correct.

BEST FILM EDITING: "Argo".  FAC correct.  "Argo's" first win of the night and TFF #39 has it's third Oscar winner.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Life of Pi".  FAC is correct here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Chris Terrio for "Argo". FAC is right.  "Argo's" 2nd award and number 4 for Telluride films.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Quentin Tarantino for "Django Unchained".  And here's where the FAC starts to go off the rails.  The FAC had an "Amour" win here, although all of the signs indicated a close race with "Django" right in the thick of it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained".  FAC wrong here as well as it had DeNiro.  But this was an intense category and maybe the most competitive of the night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables".  FAC right on this locked category.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis for "Lincoln".  Another easy FAC pick as this was a foregone conclusion.

BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook".  FAC gets this one right and my hunch that Riva would win is off.

BEST DIRECTION: Ang Lee for "Life of Pi".  The FAC metric had Speilberg winning in  a close category.  I intuited a win by Lee.  "Hunches" go 2 of 4 for the night.

BEST PICTURE: "Argo".  The FAC and most of the rest of the Oscar pundit world is right.  TFF #39 with 5 Oscars from it's class this year.


TOTALS:
"Life of Pi"-4
"Argo"-3
"Les Miserables"-3
"Lincoln"-2
"Skyfall"-2
"Django Unchained"-2
 One apiece for: "Anna Karenina", "Zero Dark Thirty", "Amour", "Searching for Sugarman", "Paperman", "Curfew", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Brave" and "Inocente".

And yes, that's 25...because of the Sound Editing tie.

The FAC goes 18 of 24 or 75%.  My "hunchy" version actually does one batter to finish the night 19 of 24 or 79%.

AND not to beat a dead horse but 4 of the last 5 Best Picture winners started the Oscar season with a bow at Telluride.  2012: "Argo", 2011: "The Artist", 2010: "The King's Speech" and 2008: "Slumdog Millionaire".   2009 was "The Hurt Locker" winning.

And so that's Oscar and its connection to Telluride for another year.  This space will go back to its more sedentary 2 posts per week on Monday and Thursday mornings until we get to June (unless conditions warrant).  The blog also reverts to its original function (for the most part) which is to ferret out, conjecture and/or guess at what we might see in the San Juan Mountains over Labor Day weekend.

It's a five day affair this year starting on Thursday (Aug. 29) rather than Friday so there is even more to look forward to.

As always a huge thank you to Mitzi and Larry Mallard in Telluride at The river Club who make this whole weird obsession possible and a thanks as well to the very kind people who share there insight into their industry whether that be the folks in the movie biz or the Oscar bloggers whose work  sets the bar.

And, of course, to all you crazy peeps who look in on this page from time to time...thank you!

More on Thursday...

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It's Oscar Morning in America...

Good morning on a Sunday.  Here's the last call post for Oscar from The Film Awards Clearinghouse before it all goes down tonight in L.A.  Wish I was going to be there.

I'll be live tweeting (@Gort2) the ceremonies tonight (actually, I'll probably be live re-tweeting).  So go find me on Twitter.

I've run the numbers one last time using the resources of 9 Oscarologists all season long.  They are:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

I have been lucky enough to meet some of these fine people over the past couple of years and I really appreciate their expertise.  Thanks!

As always Telluride #39 films are Bold!

Now onto the Last Call...

I've divided the Categories into three sub-groups: Locked, Probable and Too Close to Call, but I Will Anyway.  Here they are and here's what happens tonight (fair warning, I expect that The FAC accuracy will be right around 70-75%...that seems normal over the past 4 years and my "hunches"...probably none of them actually happen):

LOCKS

8 categories appear to have their winner solidly in place and any other winner seems virtually unthinkable.  They are:

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina (although, I have to say...I wonder if enough Academy members even saw the film...)
Best Song: Skyfall from "Skyfall"
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugarman
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

PROBABLES

These 5 categories have likely winners, but there could still be some other film/person that edges by them;

Best Short Animation: "Paperman" is likely but "Adam and Dog" is nipping at its heels (I'm sorry but I couldn't resist the "Dog" pun/metaphor)
Best Sound Mixing: "Les Miserables" is the likely winner but "Skyfall" could win the trophy
Best Production Design: "Anna Karenina" is strong here but "Life of Pi"  could challenge  and here's my first "hunch" and diversion from The FAC metric...I think it will be "Life of Pi"
Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi" is likely to win but don't underestimate the chance that Roger Deakins finally wins after 10 nominations for "Skyfall"
Best Score: The metric says "Life of Pi" is way out front but I wouldn't be stunned by either a "Lincoln" or "Argo" win here.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT I (AND THE FAC) WILL ANYWAY

10 categories have very close races as we head into this evening.  Most are two way battles, but some have even more films/performers in serious contention.

Best Live Action Short: "Curfew" has a lead that has expanded in the last few days in the FAC metric but "Buzkashi Boys", "Death of a Shadow" challenge.
Best Documentary Short: "Inocente" with a small lead here but any of three other films could easily win the award: "King's Point", "Mondays at Racine" and "Open Heart".
Best Sound Editing: "Life of Pi" holds a small edge over "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty" has made a late surge among the experts.
Best Makeup/Hair: "Les Miserables"leads "The Hobbit" by a hair...forgive me.
Best Animated Feature:  This is a no holds barred nail biter between "Wreck It Ralph" (which has the late edge) and "Brave" with "Frankenweenie still a real possibility.  Hunch #2: "Brave" wins
Best Original Screenplay: "Amour" has a slight lead over both "Django Unchained" and "Zero Dark Thirty".
Best Adapted Screenplay: "Argo" as a lead over "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" and that lead has expanded over the lat week.
Best Supporting Actor:  A crazy category.  Robert DeNiro has edged into the lead over Tommy Lee Jones. Waltz and Hoffman have lost some ground but could still get in, especially Waltz.
Best Actress:  A very competitive three way race that The FAC process says Jennifer Lawrence has a small advantage and is closely followed by Emmanuelle Riva with Jessica Chastain still possible.  Third "hunch"  It's Riva tonight for "Amour".
Best Direction:  This is led by Steven Spielberg with Ang Lee and David O. Russell in close pursuit.  Hunch #4 is that it's Ang Lee.

AND BEST PICTURE IS...

All signs point to a win by "Argo" which, if it does happen, will mean that the Best Picture in 4 of the last 5 years went through Telluride  (2012-"The Artist", 2011-"The King's Speech", 2009-"Slumdog Millionaire").

FAC breakdown has "Argo" with 3 Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Editing (and another possible) and "Amour" with 2 (Foreign Film and Original Screenplay) with another possible for Actress.  "Paperman" is favored to win as well.

THE LAST CALL

More finals Oscar predictions from a bunch of people in the know:

Metacritic: http://www.metacritic.com/feature/2013-oscar-predictions

Gurus of Gold (Movie City News): http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-charts-top-2-only-1-of-2/

Gold Derby: http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/events/oscars-2012

Oscar Talk: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-107-final-stabs-in-the-dark
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-final-predictions

HitFix/InContention: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-2013-oscars-predictions-where-did-hitfixs-experts-land

Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8972352/who-win-2013-oscars

The Carpetbagger/New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/movies/awardsseason/the-carpetbaggers-2013-oscar-predictions.html



We'll all know later tonight.  Check back tomorrow for an Oscar post mortem.

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2 Days to Oscar: Sound and Fury (OK, Visual Effects)/Oscar Matters:Final Predcitions

Good Friday morning!

We're just 2 days away from closing Oscar season by opening the envelopes.

Today I take a look at the Sound races: Mixing and Editing and Visual Effects.

Our panel of Oscar experts includes the published predictions of the following:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films in Bold

     +SOUND MIXING

1) Les Miserables (2)
2) Skyfall (1)
3) Life of Pi (3)
4) Argo (5)
5) Lincoln (4)

Comment:  "Les Mis" overtakes "Skyfall" for the favorite's spot and it's lead is substantial.

     +SOUND EDITING

1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Skyfall (2)
3) Argo (4)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (3)
5) Django Unchained (5)

Comment:  This category is too close to call but almost certainly down to the top two films.  The strength of the "Argo" wave is even felt here in both sound categories as it moved up a spot in both Sound Mixing and Editing.

     +VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Life of Pi (1)
2) The Hobbit (2)
3) The Avengers (3)
4) Prometheus (4)
5) Snow White and the Huntsman (5)

Comment: No changes here and "Pi's" lead is strong.


Tomorrow I'll take a look at the Short Subject categories where I have more data than last time and some changes have occurred.


OSCAR MATTERS: FINAL PREDICTIONS

A slew of Oscarologists and Industry Watchers are posting their final predictions.  Over the next two days I'll post links to some selected Final Oscar Picks.  The FAC will have it's FINAL up on Sunday.

For now, however, here are the final predictions from:

Anthony Breznican/Entertainment Weekly: http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/02/20/final-oscar-predictions/

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-who-will-win-who-422200

Peter Knegt/IndieWire: http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-oscar-predictions-in-each-and-every-category#

I'll have more "Finals" tomorrow.

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3 Days Until Oscar: Today A Look at the Looks/More No

Good Thursday to you!

I continue my week long countdown to Oscar night with a look today at where the Oscar races are for categories that have everything to do with how a film looks: Production Design, Costumes and Makeup and Hair.

But first up, here's an update of the Best Picture race...has "Argo" lost any steam over the past few days?

Our panel of Oscar experts includes the published predictions of the following:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery


   
     +BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)

4) Life of Pi (4)

5) Amour (5)

6) Zero Dark Thirty (6)

7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)

8) Les Miserables (7)

9) Django Unchained (9)

Comment:  Not a lot of change since Monday.  "Argo" remains the prohibitive favorite.  "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are essentially tied for the #2 spot and thus regarded equally as the possibilities for an "upset".  "beasts" and "Les Mis" trade spots near the bottom.  One last check for this category coming with the Big Final Roundup on Sunday.


     +BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Life of Pi (3)
3) Lincoln (2)
4) Les Miserables (4)
5) The Hobbit (5)

Comment: "Anna Karenina's" lead is substantial but not sufficient to be called a "lock".  It would appear that there is a surge toward "Life of Pi" and it will be interesting to see, if in Sunday's post, "Pi" has closed the lead down any further.  "Lincoln" and "Les Miserables" aren't completely out of the conversation but, realistically, this looks like a showdown between "Anna" and "Pi".

     +BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Les Miserables (3)
4) Mirror Mirror (4)
5) Snow White and the Huntsman (5)

Comment:  This is a very stable category with "Anna Karenina" a prohibitive favorite.

     +BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) The Hobbit (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Hitchcock (3)

Comment:  A race too close to call between "Hobbit" and "Les Mis".

FOCUS ON "NO"

Pablo Larrain's film "no" is Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language Film and was on the program at TFF #39.  It's receiving a good amount of notice in  the press right now as a result of its nomination and the fact that its limited U.S. release this week.

Here are a couple of posts that appeared this week for "no":

From the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/02/15/movies/100000002068369/pablo-larran-discusses-no.html

And from Hugh Hart writing at Fastcocreate.com:

http://www.fastcocreate.com/1682356/oscar-nominated-no-salutes-the-ad-campaign-that-threw-out-a-dictator


More TOMORROW!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

4 Days to Oscar and 4 Categories Decided?/Oscar Matters/Argo Interviews

Good Wednesday morning to everyone.

I'm continuing my daily posting as a run up to Sunday's Oscar broadcast.  Today I have four categories that all appear to be over save for the Envelope opening and announcement on Sunday night.  As always using data from the published predictions of the following:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

     +CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Skyfall (2)
3) Anna Karenina (4)
4) Lincoln (3)
5) Django Unchained (5)

Comment:  Looks like it's "Pi's" although Roger Deakins is still a formidable presence in this category for "Skyfall" since he's never won Oscar and he just won the ACS award...Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if this category didn't tighten up among the prognosticators by Sunday morning and their final predictions.

     +FILM EDITING

1) Argo (1)
2) Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Lincoln (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)

Comment:  "Argo" is the solid favorite here especially after the A.C.E. win Saturday night.  "Silver Linings" won the Eddie for Comedy editing, but that's not expected to have provided much of a boost.  This category was once thought to be fairly competitive between "Argo" and "ZDT"...now...not so much.

     +ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Argo (4)
4) Anna Karenina (3)
5) Skyfall (5)

Comment:  "Pi" again looks unbeatable here but it's always tough to bet against John Williams and "Argo" has been making some headway.

    +ORIGINAL SONG

1) Skyfall from Skyfall (1)
2) Pi's Lullaby from Life of Pi (5)
3) Suddenly from Les Miserables (3)
4) Everybody Needs a Friend from Ted (4)
5) Before My Time from Chasing Ice (5)

Comment:  "Skyfall" has a dominant lead in this category.  "Pi's Lullaby" has zoomed into the distant second place.

OSCAR MATTERS

It' begun...the real Oscar brains are starting to make their final predictions beginning with one of the smartest guys I know in this game, The Hollywood Reporters Scott Feinberg.  Here's what he says is his final Feinberg Forecast before the 85th Academy Awards (Todd McCarthy also throws in his 2 cents):

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-who-will-win-who-422200


ARGO INTERVIEWS

Words from Director/Producer Ben Affleck and Oscar nominated Alan Arkin about the Oscar Best Picture frontrunner and the TFF #39 Sneak Preview.

Affleck is recently highlighted by Variety.  That interview is here:


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118066208/

Meanwhile, Arkin did a Q & A with Awards Line and that is here:

http://awardsline.com/2013/02/13/qa-alan-arkin-on-argo/

More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

The FAC: Big 8 Categories SIX DAYS OUT/Final Precurors; Writing and Editing/Oscar Matters

Good Monday morning!

THE FAC: BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

Only six days left until Oscar season is over and if you're an observer who doesn't have a horse in the race, it has been a fascinating ride these past 5 1/2 months since the Telluride Film Festival's 39th edition came to an end.

Now we're to the end game.  Consequently, MTFB/FAC will post every day this week and include a final look at Oscar predictions next Sunday morning before the Oscar broadcast.  It's going to be a bumpy week.

Here's a start, a look at the Big 8 categories and where they stand after the number crunching using data from the published predictions of the following:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

     +BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Amour (6)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (7)
7) Les Miserables (5)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)

Comment:  The "Argo" trend is all but complete sweeping the predictors.  Looks like its Ben's to lose at this point.  And here's kind of an amazing note..."Amour" has steadily moved up the chart in the estimation of the prognosticators I check on to sit at #5.  Almost in a position for a case to be made that IT could be a spoiler although better cases can be made for "Lincoln", "Silver Linings" and "Life of Pi".

     +BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln(1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings (3)
4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)

Comment:  This thing has become a real horse race.  Spielberg maintains a small edge over Lee, but it's very small.  Also, Russell is in striking distance.

     +BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Denzel Washington/Flight (4)
5) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (5)

Comment:  If anyone else but Day Lewis wins this it will be one of the biggest "shocker" moments in Oscar history.

     +BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (2)
3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (3)
4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (5)
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (4)

Comment:  Lawrence has been the front runner for months.  She was seriously challenged by Jessica Chastain but that dynamic has faded.   Rather, Emanuelle Riva's stock has continued to rise over the last month and now she is a very close second and the trendy pick to win (she's the first choice of 3 of my Oscar specialists).  This category has become very tight.

     +BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
3) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
4) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4)
5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)

Comment:  This has also turned into a real dog fight.  Jones seemed to be unbeatable 6 weeks ago, but the race has evolved to the point that any of the top 4 men could win the honor and, frankly, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Arkin sneaked in to win on the strength of the "Argo" wave.

     +BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1)Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Sally Field/Lincoln (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Amy Adams/The Master (4)
5) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (5)

Comment:  If Hathaway doesn't win, it will also be one of the biggest Oscar "shockers' in a good long time.

     +BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)
2) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) David Magee/Life of Pi (4)
5) Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)

Comment:  The "Argo" momentum has carried Terrio to the top of the chart with a fractional lead over Kushner (who has lead this category for months).  Keep in mind, I crunched the numbers for this morning's chart prior to Terrio winning the Writer's Guild award last night (see below).  It's a two horse race with Terrio the smallest of favorites now.

     +BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (1)
3) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)
5) John Gatins/Flight (5)

Comment: Mark Boal (ZDT) won last night at the WGA but Haneke wasn't eligible for that nomination (neither was Tarantino).  So, this is a three horse race and pretty close as well.

So where does this put us with 6 days to Oscar?  "Argo" has won major awards from the following: PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, ACE the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes.  It's going to win Best Picture on Sunday night and likely Best Editing.  It has a decent shot at Best Adapted Screenplay and I think still could get Best Original Score.  All told 3 or 4 Oscars.  The biggest total of wins on Sunday night may be "Life of Pi" which could end up winning 5-6 Oscars. There's a very real chance that "Lincoln" may go home without a single Oscar despite having the most nominations (12).

Ultimately, this is primarily a blog that focuses on Telluride films and as of this post, TFF #39 looks formidable.  Despite a year with a relatively modest nomination total, The SHOW could end up with as many as 9 Oscars at the end of the night awarded to films that played this year (Think: "Argo" 4-Picture, Adapted Script, Score and Editing, "Amour" 3-Foreign Language, Original Screenplay and Actress and wins for "Paperman" and "Asad" in the shorts categories).

FINAL PRECURSORS: WRITERS AND EDITORS

The Writer's Guild of America awarded their top prizes for the year last night and as mentioned above TFF #39 Sneak Preview "Argo" was awarded for Best Adapted Screenplay.  "Zero Dark Thirty" won for Original Screenplay.  Hers' the report filed by USA Today:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2013/02/18/writers-guild-awards/1927303/

And on Saturday the American Cinema Editors awarded top honors to "Argo" "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Brave".  Here's the story from The Playbook.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/argo-silver-linings-playbook-take-top-editing-prizes-at-ace-eddie-awards-20130217


OSCAR MATTERS

As mentioned above, we're down to the nub on all matters Oscar related and the pundits are weighing in:

     +OSCAR TALK (with Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson):

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-106-bafta-and-scripter-recap-wga-preview-and-more-shorts

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-shorts-and-documentary-baftas-and-scripters-spielberg-vs-lee-lawrence-vs-riva-and-more

     +A FEW MINUTES WITH SCOTT FEINBERG (The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg talks the latest Oscar news):

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-dark-horses-421824


     +GOLD DERBY OSCAR PODCAST (withe Tom O'Neil and Sasha Stone)

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/e/b/4/eb4c219213257bed/Oscars_Sasha_Stone_3.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01ce8636d2c855fcd9&c_id=5407360

     +GURUS OF GOLD (the latest look at a number of Oscar categories from The Move City News poll of Oscarologists):

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/gurus-o-gold-9-days-from-the-big-show/

More TOMORROW!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

The Latest on TFF #39 Films: Amour/No/Argo/Frances Ha/Coming Attractions

Happy Valentines Day Everyone!

I'm in Liberal, Kansas awaiting the birth of grandchild #5...as of press time...no idea on gender and the name is still in question...

With Oscar now just 10 days away from an appearance, here is a smattering of posts and articles around 3 of Telluride's films from this year's festival that are in Oscar contention and some news from another film that was a real crowd pleaser at the SHOW:


AMOUR

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/oscars-oldest-nominee-emmanuelle-riva-amour-its-gift-last-stage-my-life-77236

http://awardsline.com/2013/02/12/qa-michael-haneke-on-amour/

https://twitter.com/sonyclassics/status/301043411161591808/photo/1


NO




http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-director-pablo-larrain-on-the-unique-aesthetic-of-no-working-with-star-gael-garcia-bernal-20130212

http://www.interviewmagazine.com/film/gael-garcia-bernal-no#/_


ARGO

   

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/ben-affleck-reflects-once-a-419938


FRANCES HA

Released this week are a clip and poster for the Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig collaboration.

Clip and Poster:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-poster-clip-from-noah-baumbachs-frances-ha-starring-greta-gerwig-20130211

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/greta-gerwig-in-clip-and-poster-for-noah-baumbachs-frances-ha/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=greta-gerwig-in-clip-and-poster-for-noah-baumbachs-frances-ha


COMING ATTRACTIONS

Ralph Fiennes as Charles Dickens in "The invisible Woman"
SPC Acquires distribution for "The Invisible Woman":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sony-classics-nabs-ralph-fiennes-420013

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/ralph-fiennes-will-star-as-charles-dickens-in-the-invisible-woman-after-all-kristin-scott-thomas-joins-cast

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1700845/?ref_=sr_3







More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

The FAC: The Close Races/The Brits Have Spoken/Oscar Matters/Riva and Arkin/ No and Gatekeepers News

Good Monday to All...

THE FAC: THE CLOSE RACES

I'm taking a look on this Monday at the Oscar categories that look to be closely contested at least at this point with two weeks to go and the Oscar voting actually ongoing.  In addition to the weekly look at Best Picture I have included a review of these categories: Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design.  I also take a quick look at the "Shorts" categories...

All films are listed in their current position with their last reported position on The FAC in parenthesis.  Also, for this post, I limited the Oscar predictors that I referenced.  One hasn't updated predictions since Jan.3 and another is only listing the nominees alphabetically.  Consequently, neither of them is particularly useful in gauging where the races are at this point.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)

4) Life of Pi (4)

5) Les Miserables (5)

6) Amour (7)

7) Zero Dark Thirty (6)

8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)

9) Django Unchained (9)

Comment:  The "Argo" wave got wider in the last week and may well increase by next week as I crunched these numbers prior to the weekend's announcement of "Argo" wins for Adapted Screenplay at the USC Scripter awards and BAFTA wins for Best Picture, Director and Editing.  Look at the BAFTA story below for a link to complete details.

The reality now is that "Argo" has become the favorite once again...and by an increasingly comfortable margin.  I think the questions now are...who wins the Oscar for Direction since it can't be Affleck.  Spielberg?  Russell?  Lee?

Other questions...Does "Argo" win any of the categories it IS nominated for?  Editing seems pretty likely now (despite the fact that I have included it as a "close" category for this post).  

Among its other nominations Adapted Screenplay looks to be a possibility and that's interesting because when I put this piece together, it looked like a lock as recently as Friday for Tony Kushner and Lincoln.  Now, with the Scripter award in Chris Terrio's pocket AND David O. Russell's win for this category at Sunday's BAFTAs..it may be much more wide open.  It'll be entertaining to see where the WGA comes down on this on Sunday.

Maybe "Argo" has a shot at Original Score...but Sound editing and Mixing as well as Alan Arkin's Best Supporting Actor chances seem to be too long to overcome even with the freight train that "Argo" is becoming.

So you could have a night where the Best Picture winner walks away with that single Oscar...really.  It could happen.  And that is very rare indeed.  Or maybe 2.  Editing is the most likely second Oscar with Adapted Screenplay and then Score in that order.  The Sound Mixing and Editing would be next with Arkin the least likely.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings (1)

2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (2)

3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (3)

4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (4)

5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (5)

Comment: No real movement in this category this week but again, this came prior to Riva's BAFTA win.  Frankly, I feel that the 85 year old actress is gaining some traction and expect this race to look closer next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)

2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)

3) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings (4)

4) Christoph Waltz/Django (3)

5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)

Comment: This is till a fairy competitive category and it will be fascinating to see if Waltz gets a bump after his BAFTA win last night.  DeNiro had a little boost this week.  It's a real race between the top four.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Wreck It Ralph (3)

2) Brave (1)

3) Frankenweenie (2)

4) ParaNorman (4)

5) Pirates: Band of Misfits

Comment:  Big move by "Ralph" to the top after winning the Annie for Best Feature.  But it's still very, very close among the top three and "Brave" may benefit from its BAFTA win.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo (1)

2) Zero Dark Thirty (2)

3) Life of Pi (4)

4) Lincoln (3)

5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)

Comment:  This race has been tight, but became less so over the past few weeks as "Argo" now has opened a substantial lead among our Oscar prognosticators.  Increasingly this looks like a win for William Goldenberg working solo as opposed to the Oscar he'd have to share with Dylan Tichenor should "Zero Dark Thirty" win this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Life of Pi (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Argo (4)

4) Anna Karenina (3)

5) Skyfall (5)

Comment: "Pi's" lead is smallish and "Lincoln" and "Argo" appear to be real challengers with "Argo's" Alexander Desplat moving up this past couple of weeks.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Anna Karenina (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Life of Pi (4)

4) Les Miserables (3)

5) The Hobbit (5)

Comment:  A close category has stopped being that over the past month as "Anna Karenina" has moved into a dominating position.

SHORTS...

First, a disclaimer...of the nine people/websites that I check to form the basis of The FAC only 3 are currently predicting for these "Shorts" categories...so...grain of salt...

     +ANIMATED SHORT

1) Paperman

2) Maggie Simpson: The Longest Daycare

3) Adam and Dog

4) Head Over Heels

5) Fresh Guacamole

Comment:  "Paperman" was a late addition to the Animated Shorts presentation from Serge Bromberg at this year's SHOW and is delightful.

     +LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Asad 

2) Buzkashi Boys

3) Curfew

4) Death of a Shadow

5) Henry

Comment: "Asad" was also a TFF #39 film.

     +DOCUMENTARY

1) Inocente

2) Open Heart

3) King's Point

4) Mondays at Racine

5) Redemption

THE BRITS HAVE SPOKEN

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners yesterday.  "Argo" won Best Picture, Best Director and Editing.  "Les Miserables" led all films with 4 wins.  Emanuelle Riva and Christoph Waltz both probably got boosts in their Oscar campaigns with their wins.  Here's the complete list of BAFTA winners from Entertainment Weekly:

Best Film Argo
Best Director Ben Affleck, Argo
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Best Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Best Original Screenplay Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook
Best British Film Skyfall
Best Film Not in the English Language Amour
Best Animated Film Brave
Best Documentary Searching for Sugar Man
Best Editing William Goldenberg, Argo
Best Costume Design Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
Best Cinematography Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Best Original Music Thomas Newman, Skyfall
Best Make-Up & Hair Lisa Wescott, Les Misérables
Best Visual Effects Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer, Donald R. Elliott, Life of Pi
Best Production Design Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson, Les Misérables
Best Sound Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst, Les Misérables
Best British Debut Bart Layton and Dimitri Doganis, The Imposter
Orange Rising Star Award Juno Temple
Best Animated Short The Making of Longbird
Best Live-Action Short Swimmer

And so, why does this matter?  The Brits have a small, but significant number of members in the Academy and the conventional wisdom is that they really will vote.  SO the BAFTAs can, perhaps, give us an inkling of which way the wind is blowing for a significant voting bloc.

OSCAR MATTERS

     +OSCAR TALK with Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-argo-wins-dga

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-105-affleck-wins-another-and-the-nominees-do-lunch

     +THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTERS

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-2013-hollywood-reporters-ep-419785

     +FEINBERG FORECAST

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-3-417300

     +OSCAR PODCAST with Sasha Stone

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode19.mp3

RIVA AND ARKIN

Interviews with two "seasoned" Oscar nominees from different sources.  First The Guardian talks to BAFTA Best Actress winner Emanuelle Riva here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2013/feb/10/emmanuelle-riva-actress-amour-oscars

And Pete Hammond of Deadline.com talks to Arkin here:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/oscars-qa-alan-arkin-on-argo/

NO AND GATEKEEPERS NEWS

"No" the Chilean film from Pablo Larrain that is Oscar nominated is kicking up some dust back in its home country as reported by The New York Times here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1360559639-Rn3fWzbc3yigT5FsyOhwrQ

And Dror Moreh's Oscar nominated Documentary "The Gatekeepers" wins an award at the Berlin Film Festival this week:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/oscar-hopeful-gatekeepers-takes-berlin-award/

More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.