Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
After the announcements from The Screen Actors Guild and The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the lull in the "12 Years a Slave" momentum has been stymied, I think.
It feels like that there was some loss of momentum after some of the critic group announcements, but the last two days have put some wind back in its sails.
Golden Globe breakdown:
Telluride #40 Films:
12 Years a Slave (7 nominations): Best Picture (Drama), Director, Actor (Drama), Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Score.
Nebraska: (5 nominations): Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), Director, Actor (Comedy), Supporting Actress, Screenplay.
Gravity (4 nominations): Best Picture (Drama), Director, Actress (Drama), Score.
Inside Llewyn Davis (3 nominations): Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), Actor (Comedy/Musical), Song.
All is Lost (2 nominations): Best Actor (Drama), Score.
Labor Day (1 nomination): Best Actress (Drama).
3 Foreign Language nominations: Blue is the Warmest Color, The Wind Rises, The Past.
Also 2 nominations for TFF #39 films: Greta Gerwig's Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) nomination for Frances Ha and the Best Foreign Language nomination for The Hunt.
27 total TFF nominations today from The Golden Globes.
Add today's announcement to yesterday's Screen Actors Guild nominations:
Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abdi/Capt. Phillips
Daniel Bruhl/Rush
Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini/Enough Said
Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o/12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts/August: Osage County
June Squibb/Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey/The Butler
Best Actor:
Bruce Dern/Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks/Capt. Phillips
Matthew McConnaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker/The Butler
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock/Gravity
Judi Dench/Philomena
Meryl Streep/August: Osage County
Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks
Best Ensemble:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
The Butler
12 Years-4 nominations
Nebraska-2 nominations
Gravity-1 nomination
Surprises???
Kate Winslet's "Labor Day" Best actress nomination.
No Oprah for Supporting Actress???( actually no "Butler" anywhere on the GG list this morning). Sally Hawkins seems to have benefited.
No Woody Allen love for Picture, Director or Screenplay.
Glad to see: "Inside Llewyn Davis" love for the film and Oscar Isaac. Also happy to see Redford's name especially after not seeing it yesterday from the SAG nominations.
And a nice boost for "Nebraska" which, I think, over-performed this morning with its 5 nominations. Particularly pleased that Alexander Payne got a directing nod.
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood provides this video interview with actor Matthew McConnaughey whose "Dallas Buyers Club" has a shot at being a part of the Telluride lineup.
Keith Jagernauth of The Playlist has a conversation with Frances Ha herself, Greta Gerwig about the Noah Baumbach film and other projects that are in the works:
Thimas Vinterberg, who was at TFF #39 with "The Hunt" is developing an adaptation of Thomas Hardy's classic "Far From the Madding Crowd" according to Hit Fix. The project is said to star Carey Mulligan (An Education, Never Let Me Go) and Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone) and is reportedly in the Fox Searchlight stable. All of these factors suggest hat it should be a serious contender for TFF #41. Here's the HitFix story:
I'm trying to resist the urge to manufacture a way to get to New York in the next month or two after having watched the Tony Awards last night.
THE CONGRESS GETS DISTRIBUTION
Ari Folman's "The Congress" which played last month as a part of the non-competition portion of the Cannes Film Festival has secured North American distribution. Drafthouse and Films We Like have collaborated to attain those rights. This may actually be a good sign to those who are hoping that Folman's long awaited follow up to his critically successful "Waltz with Bashir" (which appeared at TFF #35) might be a part of this year's Telluride lineup. Drafthouse was represented at Telluride last year with Josh Oppenheimer's "The Act of Killing".
Drafthouse and FWL also have nabbed the rights to Cannes selection "Borgman" which may put it in play as a TFF#40 possibility as well. ComingSoon.net has the acquisition story here:
TFF #39 favorite "Frances Ha" from collaborators Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach has performed really well in its first few days of release. Co-writer and star Gerwig was recently interviewed by Style Caster. You can peruse that here:
I speculated last week that Jason Reitman's new film "Labor Day" has a solid chance to make an appearance at Telluride this year. I also conjectured that a Kate Winslet tribute in conjunction with the film made some sense. However, the day after that post came news that Ms. Winslet has developed a medical condition which might alter that scenario...she's preggers. The Hollywood Reporter story is linked here:
Does the Winslet pregnancy rule out a tribute? Of course it doesn't but it does add a new wrinkle into the calculation about the possibility of a tribute for the Oscar winner.
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I'm headed to Taos, NM today...to see Mumford and Sons. Paul McCartney last week and Mumford today...jealous?
I'll keep my eyes peeled for any Carey Mulligan (Mrs. Mumford) sightings.
Late breaking about Ms. Mulligan...reports are that she's the likely choice to play Hilary in "Rodham" or whatever it's going to be titled.
DEALS AT CANNES (and what they mean...maybe)
Among other things, the Cannes Film Festival serves as a market place for film. Distribution deals and the distributors that make them can point us to some films that could end up at the Telluride Film Festival. Consequently I have included a series of links to a variety of stories/posts about acquisitions that occurred at Cannes or in its immediate aftermath: Beginning with a big swath of multiple posts from IndieWire
:
Sundance was represented at Telluride last year with "The Central Park Five" and in 2011 by several films. All four listed above should be considered potential films for the TFF #40 program.
Meanwhile SPC's grab of "The Lunchbox" also means that it has some very definite Telluride potential. SPC has been very well represented at Telluride for a good long time.
Later this month, I'll break down the distributor/producer players and look at which has what films and what that means for T-ride.
FRANCES HA IN THEATERS
Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig's delightful collaboration is in theaters now. A definite highlight of TFF #39...here are interviews with Baumbach from Moviefone:
As you read this (as of Thursday morning in the States), the Cannes Film Festival is well underway in France. As I did last year, I'll post collective critical reaction and the Palme d'Or buzz for the two week run of the festival as a way of gauging possible Telluride prospects.
Anyway, here are some Cannes related items from the past few days that may provide some TFF #40 insight:
Eugene Hernandez lists 12 titles that he says have the most buzz prior to Cannes beginning. A number of these titles have serious Telluride potentialities including: "The Past", "Les Saluds", "The Immigrant" and "Michael Kolhaus". "Saluds" and "Kolhaus" enter the Telluride conversation for the first time.
Meanwhile, another Cannes competition title that will almost certainly play Telluride is Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" which has had coverage pick up as the festival in France as approached. HitFix included it this week in its Cannes previews and a clip has been released and is linked below from both Rope of Silicon and The Wrap:
Noah Baumbach's "Frances Ha" also continues its roll out (with generally great reviews...as it should be). An official website is up and running: http://www.franceshamovie.com/
My continued fascination with the disaster epic that has become "Jane Got a Gun" turned up this story this week from The Hollywood Reporter that suggests that the "money" is now the thing that's walking after director and actors...
I continue to link Cannes previews from a variety of sites about films that I thiunk (at least pre-Cannes) have a decent shot to play at TFF #340. This morning a look at James Gray's "The Immigrant" starring Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Renner and Joaquin Phoenix. Here are previews from Movie City News and HitFix:
Ari Folman's follow-up to "Waltz with Bashir" has been a long time coming but will finally premiere at Cannes in competition. Rope of Silicon has a couple of new stills from the film in this post:
TFF #39: THE NEW YORK TIMES WITH SARAH POLLEY ON VIDEO
Sarah Polley's "Stories We Tell" was a TFF #39 favorite and is getting its release amid a good deal of publicity and outstanding reviews. Here the New York Times has posted video of her discussing the project:
TFF #39: THE NEW YORK TIMES WITH GRETA GERWIG AND NOAH BAUMBACH
Also rolling towards release is Noah Baumbach's collaboration with Greta Gerwig: "Frances Ha' was a delight at TFF #40 and now the rest of the world gets to share that. The New York Times talked to them about the film:
The Cannes Fest takes off in a week and a half and includes a number of films that have some propensity of being a part of Telluride's 40th lineup. The Cannes pre-coverage has begun to accelerate and consequently so has my appetite to eke out information about films that could play both festivals.
A number of outlets have begun detailing information about the Cannes competition selections including Jake Howell at Movie City News (whom I have already linked once or twice) and Guy Lodge for HitFix/InContention. With this incoming wealth of information, I'm going to try to link what seem to be (to me anyway) the more likely Telluride possibilities from both sources.
For example, in my last post I linked Howell's rundown of Asghar Farhadi's "The Past". Here's that link again:
Worldview is also the production home for two other Telluride possibilities: James Gray's "The Immigrant (see below) and Guillaume Canet's "Blood Ties".
IMMIGRANT LOOKS
The Playlist published a couple of new pics from James Gray's "The Immigrant" which is going to play in competition at Cannes in a few days. The film was teased at TFF #39 as part of the Marion Cotillard tribute with Gray on hand with a bit of footage that looked fantastic. Does the film play Cannes and then come back to Telluride for a full showing. I hope so. Here's the Playlist link:
Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig's delightful collaboration "Frances Ha" is just a few days away from limited release and as you might expect, the PR for the film has picked up in the last couple of weeks. I really enjoyed this film at TFF #39 and am looking forward to seeing it again (albeit almost certainly when it begins streaming). Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood provides the story and the link to Film Independent's interview at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art:
If you read this space with any frequency, you know that I've become a little obsessive about the tribulations of "Jane Got a Gun"...because I originally thought that it seemed like a Telluride-y possibility and also because I happened to be in Santa Fe, NM the week shooting began and the wheels fell off...the first time. Since then (mid-March) I've been dutifully recording the subsequent ups and downs...
Now The Playlist reports that one of the stars and the only big name constant other than Natalie Portman, Joel Edgerton says things are peachy...really.
One of my favorite films from TFF #39 was the collaboration between Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach that flew into T-ride under the radar..."Frances Ha". It was a delight.
This past week we discovered that the pair have teamed on another "under-the radar" project. It's untitled for the moment. If it has the same spirit as "Frances", the duo could have another shot at Telluride.
Check out the details from the two posts below from The Playlist and The New Yorker:
I have to tell you that from the minute I heard about it I have been both intrigued and skeptical about SNL alum Will Forte (he's MacGruber after) all being cast in Alexander Payne's father-son road picture "Nebraska". The film is set for competition next month in Cannes.
Forte is starting to get some ink related to the release of "Run and Jump" and naturally his attachment to "Nebraska" has come up.
IndieWire posted this profile of the comedian who is reportedly playing drama in the Payne film (which is almost a dead certainty to be in Telluride).
I spend a lot of time focused on the Cannes Festival because there is a close connection between it and Telluride. A cursory look at the past few years shows that they commonly will share 6-9 films:
Cannes/Telluride films
2012: Rust and Bone, Amour, Paradise:Love, The Hunt, The Sapphires, Central Park Five
2011: Footnote, The Kid with a Bike, Le Have, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Artist
2010: Of Gods and Men, Biutiful, Poetry, Another Year, The Princess of Montpensier, Tamara Drewe, Inside Job
So puzzling through the Cannes selections and the reaction to them when they unspool in France in three weeks can provide some clues about Telluride's possible lineup.
I have linked a rundown of the competiton films from IndieWire here and an interview with Cannes top dog Thierry Fremaux from Screen Daily:
Finally from Cannes, the jury was announced this week. We already knew that Steven Spielberg was heading the competition jury. Now we know he will be aided by the likes of Nicole Kidman and Christoph Waltz among others. Check the story from The Playlist:
Good Monday morning...the blog is running a little late today...
THE SAPPHIRES CONTINUED ROLLOUT
Interviews, articles and posts continue to pop up about Wayne Blair's "The Sapphires" to coincide with its release in the United States. On this post I have included an interview with star Chris O'Dowd from The Huffington Post:
Featured in the Great Expectations portion of the TFF #39 program this year, "Pilgrim Hill's" Gerard Barrett talked to The Irish Times this past week about his film:
A film that has an outside shot at being a part of the Telluride #40 extravaganza is Michel Gondry's "Mood Indigo" which The Playlist has featured in a post that highlights numerous images from the film. Take a look here:
I'm in Liberal, Kansas awaiting the birth of grandchild #5...as of press time...no idea on gender and the name is still in question...
With Oscar now just 10 days away from an appearance, here is a smattering of posts and articles around 3 of Telluride's films from this year's festival that are in Oscar contention and some news from another film that was a real crowd pleaser at the SHOW:
With the news that Fox Searchlight is going to release "Hitchcock" (see below), Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter factors that into his latest Oscar predictions...I've looked at them. He thinks it will have some significant impact. Check it: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-scott-feinberg-forecast-371171
CANNES HAS A DATE
The Cannes Film Festival has released the date for the 66th Edition along with a peculiarly American take on their promotional poster:
The Independent Film Channel peeps have nabbed distribution for Telluride (and Toronto) hit from Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha". Reports below from The Movie City News, The Chicago Tribune and Movie Scope:
Denmark has chosen "A Royal Affair" which played at Telluride a few weeks back as a part of the Mads Mikkelsen tribute, as its official entry for the Foreign Language Oscar. It edged out Susan Bier's "Love is All You Need". Mikkelsen was very pleasant to talk to wen I caught him Sunday night of the festival at The New Sheridan Bar. He said he had been amazed at how friendly the entire atmosphere of the festival was.
Here's a post from The Hollywood Reporter about Denmark's announcement:
Metacritic.com posted a lengthy round-up of critical response to a number of films that have played the fest circuit (Telluride, Venice, Toronto) so I have provided that link here: I also included a link to their Cannes round-up from last May that includes a number of films that played at Telluride. You can see the films and links below:
"Amour"
"The Hunt"
"No"
"Paradise: Love"
"Rust and Bone"
"The Sapphires"
NEW OSCAR PLAYERS
There has always been some thought that Gus Van Sant's "Promised Land" might get a shot at an Oscar run and we now know hat is true. What was more surprising this past week was the announcement from Fox Searchlight that they're going to drop the Sacha Gervasi directed Anthony Hopkins starring "Hitchcock" in time for an Oscar run as well.
At some point this last summer I had mentioned both of these as possible Telluride programs depending on whether they were complete or not. Looks like it was close on both of them.
For the second consecutive year Stephen Spielberg will have a film concluding the AFI Film Fest. "Lincoln" has been announced for that spot. Here are links to that story via IndieWire and The Wrap:
My first FAC for the year and I’ve
added and changed a few things. First, I have included Cinematography and Film Editing for as a part of the FAC starting
with this first post. That expends from
what I’ve called The Big 8 categories the last three years to “The Big Ten”.
Also, I took a look back this week
at the predictive success of The FAC for its first four years. I compared the initial projections for 2008,
09, 10, and 11 with the actual nominees for each of those years and found that,
on average, 60% of the predicted nominees actually become nominees. Further, another 21% of actual nominees get
listed as “possible” in the first FAC. 19%
of all nominees don’t show up either place on the first pass.
Also, The FAC was great in 2010
with a 95% success rate for predicted nominees and possible. 2009 was awful with only a 62% success rate.
So, some facts to ponder as we head to the first actual predictions…
Mining the Predictive power of
Kristopher Tapley (InContention/HitFix), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter
Knegt (IndieWire), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Scott Feinberg (The
Hollywood Reporter), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience) , Alex Carlson (Film
Misery), and Clayton Davis (Awards Circuit).
Telluride Films are Bold!
BEST PICTURE (Again this year there
will be 5 to 10 nominees. Last year
there were 9.)
1) Argo
2) Silver Linings Playbook
3) Lincoln
4) The Master
5) Beasts of the Southern Wild
6) Les
Miserables
7) Amour
8) Life of Pi
9) Zero Dark Thirty
10) Django Unchained
11) Promised Land
12) Moonrise Kingdom
13) Flight
14) The Sessions
15) Anna Karenina
Comment: I would bet that the first four are locks
even this early and that one of them win. This could be the most competitive
Best Picture race we’ve seen in a long, long time. After the first four , it’s anyone’s guess. Frankly, I’ll be a bit surprised if Michael
Haneke’s “Amour” is a BP nominee.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master
2) Ben Affleck/Argo
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings
Playbook
4) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln
5) Michael Haneke/Amour
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables
7) Ang Lee/Life of Pi
8) Behn Zeitlein/Beasts of the
Southern Wild
9) Quentin Tarantino/Django
Unchained
10) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark
Thirty
Comment: The top five look
good. I might trade Zeitlein for Haneke.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings
Playbook
2) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the
Southern Wild
3) Naomi Watts/The Impossible
4) Marion
Cotillard/Rust and Bone
5) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina
6) Emanuelle Riva/Amour
7) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs
8) Viola Davis/Won’t Back Down***
9) Laura Linney/Hyde
Park on Hudson
10) Maggie Smith/Quartet
(***it’s unclear whether Davis will
be considered in Lead or Supporting)
Comment: At this point, I think the
only sure bet is Lawrence. Although I
have to say I’d be surprised to see a nomination for any of the women in the 6
through 10 spots.
BEST ACTOR
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master
2) John Hawkes/The Sessions
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln
4) Denzel Washington/Flight
5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings
Playbook
6) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables
7) Jean
Trintignant/Amour
8) Bill Murray/Hyde
Park on Hudson
9) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained
10) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The
Master***
(***Hoffman is also splitting votes
between Lead and Supporting)
Comment: This is a category that
has been very Telluride-centric over the past several years but that same dominance
doesn’t look likely this year. The top
three guys are probably locks. I’m leery
of a Denzel nomination with no others likely for “Flight”. Cooper is pretty hot coming out of Toronto.
First shameless plug for someone
from The FAC…Jack Black in “Bernie”.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables
2) Amy Adams/The Master
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions
4) Sally Field/Lincoln
5) Maggie Smith/Exotic Marigold
Hotel
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables
7) Kerry Washington/Django
Unchained
8) Vanessa Redgrave/Song for Marion
9) Judi Dench/Exotic Marigold
Hotel***
10) Annette Bening/Imogene
(***Dench also is possible as
either Lead or Supporting)
Comment: Not one Telluride possibility to be found in
this category in our first iteration. I’d
guess Hathaway, Adams, Hunt and Field are all very likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django
Unchained
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The
Master***
3) Alan Arkin/Argo
4) David Stratharin/Lincoln
5) Dwight Henry/Beast of the
Southern Wild
6) Matthew McConnaghey/Magic Mike
7) William H. Macy/The Sessions
8) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings
Playbook
9) Hal Holbrook/Promised Land
10) John Goodman/Argo
(***see Best Actor note above)
Comment: It’s possible that “Argo”
could land more than one nomination in this category. My personal plug here would be for Bryan
Cranston who had some notice form some of the predictors but not enough to
crawl onto the chart. Maybe next time. I’m not sure that any of the top five are
truly locks at this point.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Argo
2) Silver Linings Playbook
3) Beasts of the Southern Wild
4) Lincoln
5) Life of Pi
6) Les Miserables
7) Anna Karenina
8) The Sessions***
9) The Dark Knight Rises
10) Killing Them Softly
(***The Sessions is also getting
substantial votes in the Original Screenplay category. I think it will be in the Adapted category)
Comment: The screenplay nominations are notoriously
difficult to predict even when you get close to the nomination announcement. Still, I might place money on the top four. I'll be pumping for a nomination here for "The Sapphires" if The Weinstein Company decides to drop it into the 2012 awards season.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Moonrise Kingdom
2) The Master
3) Django Unchained
4) Amour
5) Zero Dark Thirty
6) Promised Land
7) The Sessions***
8) Flight
9) Seven Psychopaths
10) Frances Ha
(***See note above concerning “The
Sessions”)
Comment: See note above… This category seems very, very fluid as we
begin. I’m not sure that anything is a
lock except maybe “The Master”. I'm pushing for a nomination for "Frances Ha".
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Master
2) Life of Pi
3) Lincoln
4) Beasts of the Southern Wild
5) The Dark Knight Rises
6) Anna Karenina
7) Django Unchianed
8) Les Miserables
9) Cloud Atlas
10) The Hobbit
Comment: New category to start this
early and all 10 seem reasonable possibilities.
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Argo
2) Lincoln
3) The Master
4) Zero Dark Thirty
5) The Dark Knight Rises
6) Life of Pi
7) Les Miserables
8) Django Unchained
9) Silver Linings Playbook
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild
Comment: The other new category for this early and
often a key indicator of Best Picture success.
I’m thinking the top five are good guesses but not necessarily carved
into stone.
OTHER OSCAR NOTES
The Gold Derby is up with its first lineup of predictions as well. Find it here:
The first post Telluride Oscar Poker podcast from Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) with guest Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) has been posted. You can find it at both of these places: http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode92.mp3
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