The Final Full Pre-Oscar FAC/Oscar Matters/From the Inside/This and That

Good Monday morning everyone.  The wait for Oscar is nearly over...

THE FINAL FULL PRE-NOMINATION FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE

Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday morning.  What will happen?  Who will be nominated?  Who will be left out?  We find out Thursday.

I'll be updating through the week as conditions warrant.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) Lincoln (1)

2) Argo (4)***

3) Les Miserables (2)

4) Zero Dark Thirty (3)

5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)

6) Life of Pi (6)

7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)

8) Django Unchained (9)

9) Amour (8)

10) Moonrise Kingdom (10)

11) Skyfall (14)***

12) The Master (11)

13) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (12)

14) The Impossible (15)

15) Flight (13)

No Drop Outs

Comments:  As I have been saying for two weeks now, “Argo” is likely the real competition against “Lincoln” for Best Picture.  That seems to be echoed by its return to the #2 spot in just the last week.  I also think that it’s possible that we’ll see it pop up in some semi-unexpected categories on Thursday morning.  Like, perhaps, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes.  The conventional wisdom is that “Argo” is likely to be nominated for: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score and Editing so anything past those 6 in any other category would be a bit of a surprise…

Random Thoughts: 

I think that the sentiment in this category for “Beasts” and “Amour” is weak and for “Django”, “Moonrise” and “Skyfall” may be stronger than many of the experts think. 

I also continue to believe that “The Master”, despite having fallen all the way to the #12 spot, still has a better than 50/50 shot at a Best Picture nomination because of the voting rules that The Academy uses for its nomination process and the passion of “The Master’s” followers.

There has been some drift towards the notion that we might see a full slate of 10 pictures announced on Thursday morning.  Again, the conventional wisdom has been that we’d see 8.  Obviously, a slate of 10 benefits the films in the #7-#13 positions…Frankly, I don’t believe either “The Impossible” or “Flight” have any realistic shot at a Best Pic nom on Thursday.

Remember that The Academy rules allow anywhere from 5-10 films to be nominated in this category and that 9 were nominated last year.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)

2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (2)

3) Ben Affleck/Argo (3)

4) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)

5) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (4)

6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)

7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)

8) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (8)

9) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (9)

10) Wes Anderson/Moonrise Kingdom (New)

Dropping Out: Robert Zemeckis/Flight

Comments:  Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck appear to be locks.  Then it’s a free for all for the last two spots which any of the remaining 7 directors on the list could slide into.  Most pundits think it’s a 3 for 2 situation with Lee, Hooper and Russell in a dead heat for the #4 and #5 spots but I could easily see Haneke, PT Anderson, Wes Anderson and especially Tarantino slipping into the final five.

The Director’s Guild announces their nominees tomorrow and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announces their nominees on Wednesday in all categories and that could provide some insight to this category for Thursday morning.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)

2) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (2)

3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3)

4) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6)***

5) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (4)

6) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (5)

7) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7)

8) Rachel Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea (8)

9) Judi Dench/The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New)

10) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (9)

Dropping Out: Emayatzy Corinealdi/Middle of Nowhere

Comments: The real race is between Lawrence and Chastain as they continue to be within an eyelash of each other.  Cotillard appears to be lock and then it gets very interesting for the last two spots between Watts, Wallis, Mirren and Riva.  I think Watts has almost become a lock over the past three weeks or so but Riva, Wallis and Mirren all have some problems in getting to that last position.  Right now my instinct is that Riva squeaks out a nomination over the other two.  And let’s not forget the possibility that Rachel Weisz might sneak into the top five as well.

BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)

2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)

3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5)***

4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (4)

5) Denzel Washington/Flight (3)###

6) Joaquin Pheonix/The Master (6)

7) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7)

8) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (9)

9) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (8)

10) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (10)

No Drop Outs

Comments: Your only lock is Day Lewis (and also the lock to win…he has a perfect score in the metric that I use).  After that…it’s up for grabs.  Jackman, Cooper and Hawkes look like the most likely…but each of them is far from certain.  Washington, Phoenix and Gere, I think, make up the next tier for the last spot.  Personally, I doubt that Trintignant, Hopkins or Foxx will hear their names on Thursday…but…weirder things have happened.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)

2) Sally Field/Lincoln (2)

3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)

4) Maggie Smith/The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (6)***

5) Amy Adams/The Master (4)

6) Nicole Kidman/The Paperboy (5)

7) Ann Dowd/Compliance (7)

8) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (8)

9) Judi Dench/Skyfall (10)

10) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (9)

No Drop Outs

Comments:  Much like Day Lewis above, Hathaway is the runaway leader in this category to be nominated and then win (she missed a perfect score on The FAC metric by 1 point).  Field and Hunt appear to be locks and the last two spots look to be a tug of war between Smith, Adams and Kidman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)

2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)

3) Alan Arkin/Argo (4)

4) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (5)

6) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (6)

7) Javier Bardem/Skyfall (8)

8) Matthew McConaughey/Magic Mike (7)

9) Eddie Redmayne/Les Miserables (9)

10) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (New)

Dropping Out: John Goodman/Flight

Comments: Jones, Hoffman, Arkin and DeNiro are all locks, I believe leaving one spot open for the two “Django” actors Bardem and McConaughey…I’m thinking “Magic Matthew” gets a  nomination.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)

2) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)

3) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)

4) David Magee/Life of Pi (5)

5) Behn Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar/Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)

6) William Nicholson/Les Miserables (6)

7) Ben Lewin/The Sessions (7)

8) Stephen Chbosky/The Perks of Being a Wallflower (8)

9) Tom Stoppard/Anna Karenina (9)

10) [TIE] Jose Rivera/On the Road and Richard Linklater and Skip Hollandsworth/Bernie

No Drop Outs

Comments: I think the top four spots are pretty solid.  The fifth spot?  My guess is Chbosky/Perks.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (1)

2) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)

3) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)***

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (2)###

5) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (5)

6) Rian Johnson/Looper (7)

7) John Gatins/Flight (6)

8) Olivier Nakache and  Eric Toledano/The Intouchables (9)

9) Ava DuVernay/Middle of Nowhere (8)

10) Nicholas Jarecki/Arbitrage (New)

Dropping Out: Reid Carolin/Magic Mike

Comments:  The top five are all pretty solid with “Looper” having a decent shot to displace one of them for a nomination.  What wouldn’t really surprise me is that “Looper” gets in and “Amour” is what gets bumped.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frankenweenie (1)

2) Brave (2)

3) Wreck It Ralph (3)

4) ParaNorman (4)

5) Rise of the Guardians (5)

6) The Painting (6)

7) The Rabbi’s Cat (8)

8) Up from Poppy Hill (7)

9) Hotel Transylvania (9)

10) Madagascar 3 (10)

No Drop Outs

Comments:  The top three films are within 2 points of each other on the FAC metric.  That should all be nominated Thursday morning and a spirited race for the Oscar should ensue.  My guess is that “The Painting” displaces either “ParaNorman” or “Rise of the Guardians” in the slugfest for the #4 and #5 positions.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Amour (1)

2) The Intouchables (2)

3) A Royal Affair (3)

4) No (4)

5) Kon Tiki (5)

6) Sister (6)

7) War Witch (8)

8) The Deep (9)

9) Beyond the Hills (7)###

No Drop Outs

Comments:  I think that the top four spots are solid and that “Sister” or “Beyond the Hills” will bump “Kon Tiki” for the fifth slot.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Searching for Sugarman (1)

2) The Gatekeepers (2)

3) How to Survive a Plague (3)

4) Mea Maxima Culpa (4)

5) The Invisible War (5)

6) The House I Live In (7)

7) Detropia (6)

8) Bully (8)

9) The Imposter (9)

10) Chasing Ice (10)

No Changes

Comments: In this notoriously difficult category to predict, I think your only safe bets are “Sugarman” and “Gatekeepers”…after that…it’s up in the air.  Additionally, don’t be shocked if a film not even on the top ten here gets a nomination on Thursday morning.  I won’t be shocked if “Ai Wei Wei”, “5 Broken Cameras” or This is Not a Film” show up on the list of five.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Life of Pi (1)

2) Skyfall (2)

3) The Master (3)

4) Zero Dark Thirty (5)

5) Lincoln (4)

6) Les Miserables (6)

7) Anna Karenina (7)

8) Django Unchained (8)

9) Beasts of the Southern Wild (9)

10) The Dark Knight Rises (New)

Dropping Out: The Hobbit

Comments: The top five seem to be well positioned until you look at the films in the 6-10 spots…then you realize that any of them (or all of them) could be nominated.  Could be a crazy category on Thursday morning…and this is also one of those categories that “Argo” could sneak a nomination in if it has really been adopted by members of The Academy.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Zero Dark Thirty (3)***

2) Argo (1)

3) Lincoln (2)

4) Life of Pi (5)

5) Les Miserables (4)

6) The Master (6)

7) Django Unchained (10)***

8) Silver Linings Playbook (7)

9) Skyfall (8)

10) The Dark Knight Rises (9)

No changes

Comments:  I think the top five here are also in good shape but if there are spoilers they could be “Django” for “Les Mis” and/or “Silver Linings” if its mojo is rolling…”SLP”, “Lincoln” and “Les Mis” may all benefit from the Best Edit/Best Picture connection that seems to show up most years.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) [TIE] Skyfall/Skyfall (6)*** and Suddenly/Les Miserables (1)

3) Learn Me Right/Brave (4)

4) Still Alive/Still Alive (2)###

5) Ancora Qui/Django Unchained (New)***

6) Pi’s Lullaby/Life of Pi (New)***

7) From Here to the Moon and Back/Joyful Noise (5)

8) Touch the Sky/Brave (3)###

9) Before My Time/Chasing Ice (New)***

10) Freedom/Django Unchained (New)***

Dropping Out: Song of the Lonely Mountain/The Hobbit, Cosmonaut/Lawless, Everybody Needs a Best Friend/Ted and Breath of Life/Snow White and the Huntsman

Comments:  This is another category that defies easy prediction.  “Skyfall” and “Suddenly” look like locks and then after that…sheesh.  “Learn Me Right” is probable…then I could easily believe a nomination for “Django” and/or “Joyful Noise” or another “Brave” nomination and I even think that the song from “Chasing Ice” has a real shot because, if for no other reason than it’s co-written by Scarlett Johansson.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Life of Pi (2)

2) Lincoln (1)

3) Argo (3)

4) Anna Karenina (5)

5) Beasts of the Southern Wild (6)

6) The Master (4)###

7) Cloud Atlas (7)

8) Zero Dark Thirty (New)***

9) On the Road (New)***

10) Skyfall (9)

Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom and The Hobbit

Comments:  “Pi” “Lincoln” and “Argo” are locks.  Personally, I’m guessing “The Master” and “Zero Dark Thirty” get the last two spots…at least as of this morning.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Anna Karenina (1)

2) Lincoln (3)

3) Les Miserables (2)

4) Life of Pi (4)

5) The Master (7)***

6) The Hobbit (5)

7) Django Unchained (New)***

8) Cloud Atlas (6)###

9) Prometheus (8)

10) Zero Dark Thirty (New)***

Dropping Out: Argo and The Dark Knight Rises

Comments: If I were putting money on this category, I’d be pretty content with the top five but any of the next 7 could also be nominated.  Again, if “Argo” is having a big morning, this is a category that it could surprise in.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Anna Karenina (1)

2) Les Miserables (2)

3) Lincoln (3)

4) Django Unchained (10)***

5) Mirror Mirror (4)

6) Snow White and the Huntsman (5)

7) Cloud Atlas (6)

8) A Royal Affair (7)

9) Argo (8)

10) The Master (9)

No changes

Comment: No category (oddly) better illustrates how much “Django” has moved up in the collective consciousness of the Oscar prognosticators than this one. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR (7 FINALISTS/3 NOMINEES)

1) Lincoln (1)

2) The Hobbit (3)

3) Les Miserables (4)

4) Men in Black 3

5) Hitchcock (5)

6) Looper (7)

7) Snow White and the Huntsman (New)

Drop Outs: Cloud Atlas, Anna Karenina, The Impossible and Prometheus

Comments:  I’d go with the top 3 here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (TEN FINALISTS/FIVE NOMINEES)

1) Life of Pi (1)

2) The Hobbit (2)

3) The Avengers (4)

4) Cloud Atlas (3)

5) Prometheus (5)

6) The Dark Knight Rises (6)

7) John Carter (10)***

8) Skyfall (8)

9) Snow White and the Huntsman (9)

10) The Amazing Spiderman (7)###

Comments: My guess would be that “Dark Knight” displaces “Prometheus”.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Skyfall (1)

2) Les Miserables (3)

3) The Dark Knight Rises (2)

4) Zero Dark Thirty (5)

5) Life of Pi (4)

6) The Avengers (6)

7) Django Unchained (7)

8) The Hobbit (8)

9) Lincoln (New)***

10) Prometheus (9)

Drop out: The Impossible

Comments:  Go with the top five here.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) Skyfall (2)

2) Les Miserables (1)

3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)

4) The Dark Night Rises (3)

5) Life of Pi (5)

6) Django Unchained (7)

7) The Avengers (6)

8) Lincoln (New)***

9) Prometheus (New)***

10) The Hobbit (10)###

Dropping Out: Flight and The Impossible

Comments: I like the top five here as well.

SHORT FORM CATEGORIES

Three categories about which there isn’t enough information for me to make even a guess.  So…

ANIMATED SHORT FINALISTS:

Adam and Dog

Combustible

Dripped

The Eagleman Stag

The Fall of the House of Usher

Fresh Guacamole

Head Over Heels

Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare

Paperman

Tram

SHORT DOCUMENTARY FINALISTS:

The Education of Mohammad Hussein

Inocente

King’s Point

Monday’s at Racine

Open Heart

Paraiso

The Perfect Fit

Redemption

LIVE ACTION SHORT FINALISTS:

A Fabrica (The Factory)

Asad

Buzkashi Boys

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

Henry

Kiruna-Kigali

The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars

9meter

Salar

When you find me

 The Breakdown for Telluride:

14 major nominations plus another 3 probable in Animated Shorts for "Paperman" and "Tram" and in Short Live Action with "Asad" and another 4 possibles.  

The Breakdown by film if the FAC is 100% accurate now shows:

Lincoln 12 nominations/2 possibles

Les Miserables 10 nominations/4 possibles

Life of Pi 10 nominations/1 possible

Zero Dark Thirty 8 nominations/2 possibles

Argo 6 nominations/1 possible

Django Unchained 5 nominations/9 possibles

The Master 5 nominations/6 possibles

Silver Linings Playbook 5 nominations/3 possibles

Skyfall 4 nominations/6 possibles

Amour 4 nominations/2 possibles

Beasts of the Southern Wild 3 nominations/3 possibles

Anna Karenina 3 nominations/3 possibles

The Sessions, Brave, The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit with 2 nominations each.

Other Telluride major nominations for Rust and Bone, An Royal Affair, No and The Gatekeepers.

MY FINAL NOTES FOR NOMINATIONS WILL BE POSTED WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE.

 OSCAR MATTERS

The latest Feinberg Forecast from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/les-miserables-zero-dark-thirty-407690

Also this week's "A Few Minutes with Feinberg" as well:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-french-408403

Rope of Silicon's Podcast:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/podast-happy-new-year/


FROM THE INSIDE




Over the past few years as I have been attending the Telluride Film Festival I have been fortunate enough to have made some friends/acquaintances that actually are members of the film industry. Some are Academy members, some are not. All of them are passionate about film.



Many of these fine folks have been kind enough to share their thoughts and insights into this year’s crop of films with a special emphasis on the Oscar.



My “friends” include people who direct, produce, market, study, write in the industry. They range in age from 20-somethings to 70-somethings. It’s a broad swath. And here are some of the comments they have shared…



Films that received the most praise from this group included:



Argo

Zero Dark Thirty

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Amour

A Royal Affair

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi



More divisive films among this group were:

Les Miserables

The Master

Django Unchained

Lincoln



A lot of complaints from the group mirror what you may have seen in other places…

Length of this year’s films is a big sticking point among this crew. After all, “Lincoln”, “Django”, “Zero Dark Thirty”, “The Master”, “Les Miserables” and others clock in at over 2 ½ hours. It’s a weird trend that has been magnified by the late season release of so many Oscar contenders.



There is considerable complaining about the Oscars themselves and the perceived penchant for choosing the bland and middle of the road.



Some of my friends will be pleased on Thursday morning, some incensed.


 

 THIS AND THAT

National Society of Film Critics likes "Amour", "The Master" and "Zero Dark Thirty".  See the results here from InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/amour-wins-top-honors-from-national-society-of-film-critics

Meanwhile, earlier in the week The Writers Guild of America announced their finalists for various script writing awards.  Because of their requirements, a number of possible Oscar screenplays were not eligible. TFF #39 films "Argo"  was nominated for Best Adaptation and "The Central Park Five" was nominated for Documentary scripting.  The complete list and analysis from Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/writers-guild-nominations-2013

Coming later today on MTFB/FAC, I'll post some thoughts from Academy members and industry members about what they'd like to see or not see on Thursday morning.

More later...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

FAC Update: Picture, Director, Animated, Doc, Foreign/Oscar Matters/Rust/Argo/Amour/Sapphires/Coming Soon

FAC UPDATE

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

     BEST PICTURE

1) Lincoln (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Argo (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
10) Moonrise Kingdom (10)
11) The Master (11)
12) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (12)
13) Flight (15)***
14) Skyfall (14)
15) The Impossible (13)###

No Drop Outs.

Comments:  Not much change from last week.  There's a lot of "conventional" wisdom the there will be 8 nominated films (remember that there can be anywhere from 5 to 10).  If that's true and this compilation is accurate then "Beasts" and "Amour" get the last two spots.

Frankly, I'm less than convinced that that will happen.  I'm feeling that the top 6 spots are pretty solid.  After that I actually think that "Django", "Moonrise" and "Best Exotic" might actually be in better position than the chart indicates.  From a pure passion perspective, "The Master" despite being at #11 for two weeks in a row and suffering from a precipitous drop over the past several weeks, may still be able to muster the 5% #1 votes that would get it a Best Picture nomination.

Further, I still feel that it's actually going to come down to "Lincoln" or "Argo".  Though "Argo" "ZDT" and "Les Miz" are very tightly bunched and not massively behind "Lincoln".

But consider...critical response to "Les Miz" has been less than uniformly lavish...and "ZDT" has some baggage vis-a-vis concerns about whether it endorses torture...and besides Kris Tapley of InContention.com and Sasha stone of Awards Daily  also have the same vibe...Tapley even thinks that "Argo" might have the edge to win the Best Pic Oscar (as per a tweet from Friday):

Kristopher Tapley ‏@kristapley

Starting to lean toward Argo win. Has zip to do w/ critic reaction to Les Mis. Argo simply STRONG with AMPAS. Phase 2 will be interesting.

Ballots are out and are supposed to be in no later than Jan. 3.  But as you may have read in my last post, the new online Oscar balloting has apparently been a giant problem...the word is that The Academy is willing to FedEx ballots to members who have tried to e-vote but have had issues.  You have to wonder if that's going to be a dynamic that will have any effect on the process.

     BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Ben Affleck/Argo (3)
4) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (4)
5) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)
6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (9)
9) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (8)
10) Robert Zemeckis/Flight (10)

No Drop Outs.

Comments:   Also a very stable/little movement category.  My best assessment right now is that the top five are actually pretty solid with Haneke and Russell the only two that might sneak into the category.

     BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frankenweenie (4)***
2) Brave (1)
3) Wreck It Ralph (2)
4) ParaNorman (5)
5) Rise of the Guardians (3)
6) The Painting (6)
7) From Up on Poppy Hill (7)
8) The Rabbi's Cat (8)
9) Hotel Transylvania (New)***
10) Madagascar 3 (New)***

Dropping Out: Zarafa and The Lorax

Comments: The top three spots seem like locks at this point.  The 4-5 spots are pretty solid...but...I'd expect "ParaNorman" or "Rise" will actually give way to one of the "arty" animated films that take up the 6-7-8 spots with "The Painting (La Tableau") being the most likely to sneak into the list of nominees.


      BEST DOCUMENTARY

Note: the list of semi-finalists removed "Central Park Five", "West of Memphis", "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" and "The Queen of Versailles" from consideration.

1) Searching for Sugarman (3)
2) The Gatekeepers (2)
3) How to Survive a Plague (New)***
4) Mea Maxima Culpa (6)***
5) The Invisible War (5)
6) Detropia (New)***
7) The House I Live In (8)
8) Bully (New)
9) The Imposter (7)
10) Chasing Ice (New)

Comment:  It's difficult to adequately gauge the level of "heat" since the semi-finalists announcement effectively upended the apple cart.  "Ai Wei Wei" is outside the top 10, barely, but I think it also has a shot at a nomination.

     BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Note: Nine films are left at this point. This Finals announcement also wreaked havoc on the previous set of rankings.

1) Amour (1)
2) The Intouchables (2)
3) A Royal Affair (3)
4) No (4)
5) Kon Tiki (New)***
6) Sister (9)
7) Beyond the Hills (7)
8) War Witch (New)
9) The Deep (New)


OSCAR MATTERS

Steve Pond at The Wrap takes an in-depth look at the Oscar nominating process and what it takes to snag one.  Fascinating:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/easiest-oscar-nomination-and-other-oscar-numbers-secrets-70881

Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter posted about the problems that have been a part of this year's first ever Oscar online voting process.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-e-voting-problems-worse-406417

Also, here's the latest FEINBERG FORECAST from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-8-406092


RUST AND BONE

David Poland at Movie City News talks to "Rust and Bone" writer/director Jacques Audiard:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/12/dp30-tiff-rust-and-bone-co-writerdirector-jacques-audiard-co-writer-thomas-bidegain/


ARGO

The Wrap's Steve Pond talks to "Argo" director/star Ben Affleck and writer Chris Terrio about dramatic choices they made in telling the story:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/ben-affleck-chris-terrio-dissect-argo-and-defend-some-untruths-70581

AMOUR

The New York Times profiles the French actor and star of Michael Haneke's "Amour", Jean Louis Tritingnant:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/movies/awardsseason/jean-louis-trintignant-surprises-in-amour.html

THE SAPPHIRES

One of the highlights of this year's SHOW was the appearance of "The Sapphires" from The Weinstein Company and director Wayne Blair.  News came this week that the film will open the Portland Film Festival next month.
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood reports:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/portland-announces-sapphires-as-opening-night-film-for-36th-edition


COMING SOON

In my next post on Thursday, I'll get to some of the responses I've had about this year's Oscar season from some friends of mine in the business...Academy members and film fans...

Come back on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

FLASH: BROADCAST FILM CRITICS' NOMINATIONS: THEY LIKE "LINCOLN"

NOMINATIONS FOR THE 18TH ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE MOVIE AWARDS

(tTelluride Films in BOLD)

"Argo" nominated for 7.  TFF #39 with an additional 7 nominations including Cotillard and Riva for Best Actress.


BEST PICTURE

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”

John Hawkes – “The Sessions”

Hugh Jackman – “Les Misérables”

Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”

Denzel Washington – “Flight”

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”

Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”

Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”

Quvenzhané Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin – “Argo”

Javier Bardem – “Skyfall”

Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”

Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”

Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams – “The Master”

Judi Dench – “Skyfall”

Ann Dowd – “Compliance”

Sally Field – “Lincoln”

Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”

Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Elle Fanning – “Ginger & Rosa”

Kara Hayward – “Moonrise Kingdom”

Tom Holland – “The Impossible”

Logan Lerman – “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”

Suraj Sharma – “Life of Pi”

Quvenzhané Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Argo

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Misérables

Lincoln

Moonrise Kingdom

Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck – “Argo”

Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”

Tom Hooper – “Les Misérables”

Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”

David O. Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”

John Gatins – “Flight”

Rian Johnson – “Looper”

Paul Thomas Anderson – “The Master”

Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola – “Moonrise Kingdom”

Mark Boal – “Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Chris Terrio – “Argo”

David Magee – “Life of Pi”

Tony Kushner – “Lincoln”

Stephen Chbosky – “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”

David O. Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Les Misérables” – Danny Cohen

“Life of Pi” – Claudio Miranda

“Lincoln” – Janusz Kaminski

“The Master” – Mihai Malaimare Jr.

“Skyfall” – Roger Deakins

BEST ART DIRECTION

“Anna Karenina” – Sarah Greenwood/Production Designer; Katie Spencer/Set Decorator

“The Hobbit” – Dan Hennah/Production Designer; Ra Vincent & Simon Bright/Set Decorators

“Les Misérables” – Eve Stewart/Production Designer; Anna Lynch-Robinson/Set Decorator

“Life of Pi” – David Gropman/Production Designer; Anna Pinnock/Set Decorator

“Lincoln” – Rick Carter/Production Designer; Jim Erickson/Set Decorator

BEST EDITING

“Argo” – William Goldenberg

"Les Misérables” – Melanie Ann Oliver and Chris Dickens

“Life of Pi” – Tim Squyres

“Lincoln” – Michael Kahn

“Zero Dark Thirty” – William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Anna Karenina” – Jacqueline Durran

“Cloud Atlas” – Kym Barrett and Pierre-Yves Gayraud

“The Hobbit” – Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey and Richard Taylor

“Les Misérables” – Paco Delgado

“Lincoln” – Joanna Johnston

BEST MAKEUP

Cloud Atlas

The Hobbit

Les Misérables

Lincoln

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Avengers

Cloud Atlas

The Dark Knight Rises

The Hobbit

Life of Pi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Brave

Frankenweenie

Madagascar 3

ParaNorman

Rise of the Guardians

Wreck-It Ralph

BEST ACTION MOVIE

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

Looper

Skyfall

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Christian Bale – “The Dark Knight Rises”

Daniel Craig – “Skyfall”

Robert Downey Jr. – “The Avengers”

Joseph Gordon-Levitt – “Looper”

Jake Gyllenhaal – “End of Watch”

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Emily Blunt – “Looper”

Gina Carano – “Haywire”

Judi Dench – “Skyfall”

Anne Hathaway – “The Dark Knight Rises”

Jennifer Lawrence – “The Hunger Games”

BEST COMEDY

Bernie

Silver Linings Playbook

Ted

This Is 40

21 Jump Street

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Jack Black – “Bernie”

Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Paul Rudd – “This Is 40”

Channing Tatum – “21 Jump Street”

Mark Wahlberg – “Ted”

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Mila Kunis – “Ted”

Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Shirley MacLaine – “Bernie”

Leslie Mann – “This Is 40”

Rebel Wilson – “Pitch Perfect”

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE

The Cabin in the Woods

Looper

Prometheus

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Amour

The Intouchables

A Royal Affair

Rust and Bone

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Bully

The Central Park Five

The Imposter

The Queen of Versailles

Searching for Sugar Man

West of Memphis

BEST SONG

“For You” – performed by Keith Urban/written by Monty Powell & Keith Urban – Act of Valor

“Learn Me Right” – performed by Birdy with Mumford & Sons/written by Mumford & Sons – Brave

“Skyfall” – performed by Adele/written by Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth – Skyfall

“Still Alive” – performed by Paul Williams/written by Paul Williams – Paul Williams Still Alive

“Suddenly” – performed by Hugh Jackman/written by Claude-Michel Schonberg & Alain Boublil & Herbert Kretzmer – Les Misérables.



BEST SCORE

“Argo” – Alexandre Desplat

“Life of Pi” – Mychael Danna

“Lincoln” – John Williams

“The Master” – Jonny Greenwood

“Moonrise Kingdom” – Alexandre Desplat


Waiting for the Screen Actor's Guild nominations...

TFF40/NBR'S Lists/New York Critics/TFF39 Film News/Oscar Matters/Coming Attractions

SECOND FILM FOR TFF #40...I KNOW IT...

A documentary based on Roger Ebert's autobiography and executive produced by Martin Scorsese.  This article claims that it's coming to TFF #40.  Sounds very plausible.  The big question...will Ebert and/or Scorsese attend?

http://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/martin-scorseses-roger-ebert-documentary-debut-2013/

Back on Aug. 29th I reported that the first known film would be a restoration of a silent film focused on Native Americans that has Ken Burns attached as one of the producers.  Here's the link to that blog post:

http://michaelstelluridefilm.blogspot.com/2012/08/welcomeleaning-towardsvenitianscentral.html

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW ANNOUNCES THEIR BEST FILMS YESTERDAY

Best Film:  ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, DJANGO UNCHAINED

Best Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, COMPLIANCE

Best Original Screenplay: Rian Johnson, LOOPER

Best Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Animated Feature: WRECK-IT RALPH

Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Ben Affleck, ARGO

Breakthrough Actor: Tom Holland, THE IMPOSSIBLE

Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhané Wallis,  BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

Best Directorial Debut: Benh Zeitlin, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

Best Foreign Language Film:  AMOUR

Best Documentary: SEARCHING FOR SUGARMAN

William K. Everson Film History Award: 50 YEARS OF BOND FILMS

Best Ensemble: LES MISÉRABLES

Spotlight Award: John Goodman (ARGO, FLIGHT, PARANORMAN, TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE)

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: CENTRAL PARK FIVE

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: PROMISED LAND

OTHER TOP TEN FILMS: ARGO, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, DJANGO UNCHAINED, LES MISERABLES, LINCOLN, LOOPER, PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER, PROMISED LAND, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.

BEST FOREIGN FILMS: BARBARA, THE INTOUCHABLES, NO, THE KID WITH A BIKE, WAR WITCH.

BEST INDEPENDENT FILMS: ARBITRAGE, BERNIE, COMPLIANCE, END OF WATCH, HELLO, I MUST BE GOING, LITTLE BIRDS, MOONRISE KINGDOM, ON THE ROAD, QUARTET AND SLEEPWALK WITH ME.

BEST DOCUMENTARIES: AI WEIWEI: NEVER SORRY, DETROPIA, THE GATEKEEPERS, THE INVISIBLE WAR AND ONLY THE YOUNG



Telluride films recognized today: Argo, The Gatekeepers, Amour, Central Park Five, and from TFF #38: The Kid with a Bike.

Biggest surprise(s) to me...Bradley Cooper over Day-Lewis and Phoenix and no mention of "Life of Pi" anywhere...which I'm OK with...Also a little surprised that neither the NYFCC on Monday or NBR today gave a shout out to Anne Hathaway in Les Miz...

NEW YORK'S CRITICS SAY...

The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best of" for 2012 on Monday...
(Telluride #39 film(s) in Bold)



Best First Film: How to Survive a Plague
Best Documentary: The Central Park Five
Best Cinematography: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field/Lincoln
Best Supporting Actor: Mathew McConnaughey/Magic Mike and Bernie
Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner/Lincoln
Best Direction: Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
 
The Los Angeles Film Critics announce their awards this weekend and the Golden Globe nominations come out next Thursday...


AMOUR DOMINATES THE EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS

The Michael Haneke directed and written film won awards for Best European Film, Direction, Actor and Actress last weekend.  Also scoring well, TFF #38 feature (and my Best of 2011)  Steve McQueen's "Shame".  TFF #39's "The Hunt" was also honored.  Check the full report from The Playlist here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-hanekes-amour-dominates-european-film-awards-20121203#



TFF 39 FILM NEWS

     HYDE PARK

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-nelson/hyde-park-on-hudson_b_2236995.html?utm_hp_ref=entertainment

     RUST AND BONE

http://www.craveonline.com/film/interviews/200301-theyre-antiheroes-matthias-schoenaerts-on-rust-and-bone

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/video-marion-cotillard-on-not-preparing-for-a-role/

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/12/02/marion-cotillard-s-stellar-turn-in-rust-and-bone.html

     AMOUR

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-hanekes-amour-dominates-european-film-awards-20121203

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/amour-gains-a-euro-prize-and-perhaps-momentum/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/michael-haneke-on-amour#

     ARGO

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/moviesnow/la-et-mn-ben-affleck-george-clooney-argo-20121203,0,4455721.story

http://www.starpulse.com/news/index.php/2012/11/29/argo_director_actor_ben_affleck_named

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/moviesnow/la-et-mn-ben-affleck-to-cast-himself-in-argo-actor-plays-an-angle-video-20121202,0,4462174.story


http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/argo-actors-get-palm-springs-honor-go-their-oscar-buzz-67951

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/palm-springs-intl-film-festival-honors-argo-with-ensemble-performance-award

http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/sns-rt-us-argo-awardbre8b502f-20121205,0,6534033.story




OSCAR MATTERS

     FEINBERG FORECAST

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/zero-dark-thirty-les-miserables-394768

     A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/scott-feinberg-85th-oscars-best-398583

     OSCAR PODCAST/SASHA STONE

http://awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode10.mp3

     ROPE OF SILICON OSCAR PODCAST

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/podcast-a-lot-more-awards-talk-genre-categories-at-the-critics-choice-awards-and-new-dvds-and-blu-rays/


     DOC SHORT LIST...AND EGG ON THE FAC...

Just days after I posted the list of ten "most likely nominees" for, among other categories, Best Doc...the Academy releases its list of 15 semi-finalists and The FAC's #1 (The Central Park Five), #4 (West of Memphis) and #9 (The Queen of Versailles) and #10 (Jiro Dreams of Sushi) all ailed to be named to the final 15.  The complete list of semi-finalists is here and does include Telluride #39 entrant "The Gatekeepers"

http://www.indiewire.com/article/oscar-doc-race-narrows-to-15#

BITS AND PIECES

Here's a really useful collection of awards season dates from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily...

     AWARDS CALENDAR FROM AWARDS DAILY:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/calendar/?doing_wp_cron=1354557055.3870060443878173828125


COMING ATTRACTIONS

     GHOSTBUSTERS 3

This is NOT a Telluride possible, but it does have a Telluride?MTFB connection...

http://www.hollywood.com/news/Ghostbusters_3_is_a_go_as_Billy_Murray_signs_on_report/45472977

The first year I was at Telluride my wife and I were sitting at The Chuck waiting for some screening and Kris struck up a conversation with the young man to her left.  I really don't know how they got to it, but at one point she was telling him (and he claimed to be a minion at Universal...but who said his dad was some big VP there) about MY idea that I've had for years for GB#3...that Dr. Pete Venkman (Bill Murray his own self) IS...DEAD... and must be raised from the Great Beyond to help solve some existential threat from beyond the grave.  Really...that's MY idea.  Now with Murray's acquiescence to the project, I'm telling you...even if the film isn't parked at Universal...I'm going to think I need a civil attorney if that plot point shows up.

Remember, you read it here first...


     THE NIGHTINGALE (PREVIOUSLY "LOW LIFE")

One of the surprise highlights of this year's Telluride Fest was the super sneak peak at a few minutes of James Gray's "The Nightingale" starring tributee Marion Cotillard, Joaquin Phoenix and Jeremy Renner.  Its brief appearance makes me think that it's a very real possibility for TFF #40 (and a Cannes appearance in May, I'll wager).

Here are a few posts about "The Nightingale":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-weinstein-company-snaps-up-director-james-grays-formerly-titled-low-life-for-2013-release-20120615

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/movie/nightingale/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-look-at-joaquin-phoenix-and-marion-cotillard-in-james-grays-untitled-period-drama-formerly-known-as-low-life-20120723


More on Monday...Have a good weekend, everyone!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.