The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].
BEST PICTURE
1) Lincoln (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Argo (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
10) Moonrise Kingdom (10)
11) The Master (11)
12) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (12)
13) Flight (15)***
14) Skyfall (14)
15) The Impossible (13)###
No Drop Outs.
Comments: Not much change from last week. There's a lot of "conventional" wisdom the there will be 8 nominated films (remember that there can be anywhere from 5 to 10). If that's true and this compilation is accurate then "Beasts" and "Amour" get the last two spots.
Frankly, I'm less than convinced that that will happen. I'm feeling that the top 6 spots are pretty solid. After that I actually think that "Django", "Moonrise" and "Best Exotic" might actually be in better position than the chart indicates. From a pure passion perspective, "The Master" despite being at #11 for two weeks in a row and suffering from a precipitous drop over the past several weeks, may still be able to muster the 5% #1 votes that would get it a Best Picture nomination.
Further, I still feel that it's actually going to come down to "Lincoln" or "Argo". Though "Argo" "ZDT" and "Les Miz" are very tightly bunched and not massively behind "Lincoln".
But consider...critical response to "Les Miz" has been less than uniformly lavish...and "ZDT" has some baggage vis-a-vis concerns about whether it endorses torture...and besides Kris Tapley of InContention.com and Sasha stone of Awards Daily also have the same vibe...Tapley even thinks that "Argo" might have the edge to win the Best Pic Oscar (as per a tweet from Friday):
Starting to lean toward Argo win. Has zip to do w/ critic reaction to Les Mis. Argo simply STRONG with AMPAS. Phase 2 will be interesting.
Ballots are out and are supposed to be in no later than Jan. 3. But as you may have read in my last post, the new online Oscar balloting has apparently been a giant problem...the word is that The Academy is willing to FedEx ballots to members who have tried to e-vote but have had issues. You have to wonder if that's going to be a dynamic that will have any effect on the process.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Ben Affleck/Argo (3)
4) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (4)
5) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)
6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (9)
9) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (8)
10) Robert Zemeckis/Flight (10)
No Drop Outs.
Comments: Also a very stable/little movement category. My best assessment right now is that the top five are actually pretty solid with Haneke and Russell the only two that might sneak into the category.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Frankenweenie (4)***
2) Brave (1)
3) Wreck It Ralph (2)
4) ParaNorman (5)
5) Rise of the Guardians (3)
6) The Painting (6)
7) From Up on Poppy Hill (7)
8) The Rabbi's Cat (8)
9) Hotel Transylvania (New)***
10) Madagascar 3 (New)***
Dropping Out: Zarafa and The Lorax
Comments: The top three spots seem like locks at this point. The 4-5 spots are pretty solid...but...I'd expect "ParaNorman" or "Rise" will actually give way to one of the "arty" animated films that take up the 6-7-8 spots with "The Painting (La Tableau") being the most likely to sneak into the list of nominees.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Note: the list of semi-finalists removed "Central Park Five", "West of Memphis", "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" and "The Queen of Versailles" from consideration.
1) Searching for Sugarman (3)
2) The Gatekeepers (2)
3) How to Survive a Plague (New)***
4) Mea Maxima Culpa (6)***
5) The Invisible War (5)
6) Detropia (New)***
7) The House I Live In (8)
8) Bully (New)
9) The Imposter (7)
10) Chasing Ice (New)
Comment: It's difficult to adequately gauge the level of "heat" since the semi-finalists announcement effectively upended the apple cart. "Ai Wei Wei" is outside the top 10, barely, but I think it also has a shot at a nomination.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Note: Nine films are left at this point. This Finals announcement also wreaked havoc on the previous set of rankings.
1) Amour (1)
2) The Intouchables (2)
3) A Royal Affair (3)
4) No (4)
5) Kon Tiki (New)***
6) Sister (9)
7) Beyond the Hills (7)
8) War Witch (New)
9) The Deep (New)
OSCAR MATTERS
Steve Pond at The Wrap takes an in-depth look at the Oscar nominating process and what it takes to snag one. Fascinating:
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/easiest-oscar-nomination-and-other-oscar-numbers-secrets-70881
Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter posted about the problems that have been a part of this year's first ever Oscar online voting process.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-e-voting-problems-worse-406417
Also, here's the latest FEINBERG FORECAST from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-8-406092
RUST AND BONE
David Poland at Movie City News talks to "Rust and Bone" writer/director Jacques Audiard:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/12/dp30-tiff-rust-and-bone-co-writerdirector-jacques-audiard-co-writer-thomas-bidegain/
ARGO
The Wrap's Steve Pond talks to "Argo" director/star Ben Affleck and writer Chris Terrio about dramatic choices they made in telling the story:
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/ben-affleck-chris-terrio-dissect-argo-and-defend-some-untruths-70581
AMOUR
The New York Times profiles the French actor and star of Michael Haneke's "Amour", Jean Louis Tritingnant:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/movies/awardsseason/jean-louis-trintignant-surprises-in-amour.html
THE SAPPHIRES
One of the highlights of this year's SHOW was the appearance of "The Sapphires" from The Weinstein Company and director Wayne Blair. News came this week that the film will open the Portland Film Festival next month.
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood reports:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/portland-announces-sapphires-as-opening-night-film-for-36th-edition
COMING SOON
In my next post on Thursday, I'll get to some of the responses I've had about this year's Oscar season from some friends of mine in the business...Academy members and film fans...
Come back on Thursday...
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