FAC UPDATE
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].
BEST PICTURE
It happened this week. The rest of the field (well two films) finally caught "Argo". It is no longer at the top of the Best Picture category on The FAC.
This whole exercise since Telluride (and Toronto and Venice) ended in September has remionded of this past year's Republican primary process in that a new challenger appears to emerge every week or two and the critics, bloggers and Oscar experts have been very susceptible to the flavor of the moment.
Think back to this January and beyond about the number of Repubs who road into the national spotlight for his/her moment as the "frontrunner": Bachmann, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum, Cain...all had a lead at some point over Mitt Romney.
That surge to the top effect has shown up big time this week with the continued success of "Lincoln" in theaters and the screenings of "Les Miserables" and "Zero Dark Thirty" in New York and L.A. This week's update (and the new leaders) illustrate that nicely. And just this weekend, reported screenings of "The Hobbit" and I believe some of the industry's big guns have already seen "Django Unchained".
What remains to be seen is which film IS the "Mitt" of the field and withstands the assaults. As I have said in this space...my money is on "Lincoln" to win...but, you know, that could change...maybe Trump gets in the race.
1) Lincoln (2)
2) Les Miserables (3)
3 Argo (1)###
4) Silver Linings Playbook (4)
5) Zero Dark Thirty (8)***
6) Life of Pi (5)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) The Master (6)###
9) Amour (9)
10) Flight (10)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (11)
12) Django Unchained (13)
13) The Hobbit (new)***
14) The Impossible (15)
15) The Sessions (14)
Dropping Out: Hitchcock
Comments: You can see the effect that screenings and box office succes at this time are having on the Top 15 chart...
UNDER THE LINE CATEGORIES (FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Brave
2) Wreck It Ralph
3) Rise of the Guardians
4) Frankenweenie
5) ParaNorman
6) The Painting
7) From Up on Poppy Hill
8) The Rabbi's Cat
9) Zarafa
10) The Lorax
BEST FULL LENGTH DOCUMANTARY
1) The Central Park Five
2) The Gatekeepers
3) Searching for Sugarman
4) West of Memphis
5) The Invisible War
6) Mea Maxima Culpa
7) The Imposter
8) The House I Live In
9) The Queen of Versailles
10) Jiro Dreams of Sushi
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Amour
2) The Intouchables
3) A Royal Affair
4) No
5) Lore
6) Fill the Void
7) Beyond the Hills
8) Barbara
9) Sister
10) Bwakaw
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Lincoln
2) Life of Pi
3) Argo
4) The Master
5) Anna Karenina
6) Beasts of the Southern Wild
7) Cloud Atlas
8) Moonrise Kingdom
9) Skyfall
10) The Hobbit
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Les Miserables
2) Still Alive
3) Brave (Touch the Sky)
4) Brave (Learn)
5) Joyful Noise
6) Skyfall
7) Lawless
8) The Hobbit
9) Snow White and the Huntsman
10) Ted
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Anna Karenina
2) Les Miserables
3) Lincoln
4) Life of Pi
5) The Hobbit
6) Cloud Atlas
7) The Master
8) Prometheus
9) Argo
10) The Dark Knight Rises
COSTUME
1) Anna Karenina
2) Les Miserables
3) Lincoln
4) Mirror Mirror
5) Snow White and the Huntsman
6) Cloud Atlas
7) A Royal Affair
8) Argo
9) The Master
10) Django Unchained
HAIR AND MAKEUP
1) Lincoln
2) Cloud Atlas
3) The Hobbit
4) Les Miserables
5) Hitchcock
6) Men in Black 3
7) Looper
8) Anna Karenina
9) The Impossible
10) Prometheus
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Life of Pi
2) The Hobbit
3) Cloud Atlas
4) The Avengers
5) Prometheus
6) The Dark Knight Rises
7) The Amazing Spiderman
8) Skyfall
9) Snow White and the Huntsman
10) John Carter
SOUND EDITING
1) Skyfall
2) The Dark Knight Rises
3) Les Miserables
4) Life of Pi
5) Zero Dark thirty
6) The Avengers
7) Django Unchained
8) The Hobbit
9) Prometheus
10) The Impossible
SOUND MIXING
1) Les Miserables
2) Skyfall
3) The Dark Knight Rises
4) Zero Dark Thirty
5) Life of Pi
6) The Avengers
7) Django Unchaqined
8) The Hobbit
9) Flight
10) The Impossible
Next week I'll have the third Full FAC of the season...
The New York Film Critics announce their awards for 2012 today...so I almost will certainly post again later...
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