My break for the holidays is just over a week away...can't happen soon enough.
GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS TODAY WILL BE IN A SEPARATE POST SOON.
THE FULL FAC BREAKDOWN
Monday I published the more or less complete, top to bottom (OK, every category except for the 3 "Shorts": Live Action, Short Doc and Animated Short) Clearinghouse snapshot of where the Oscar race stands in the eyes of 9 of the most serious and successful Oscar Guessers on the planet...
Here's the breakdown of that long, long list from Monday...
As it relates to this year's Telluride Film Fest:
Telluride films are currently predicted to grab 15 nominations (that includes a couple in the "Shorts" categories) with another 7 possible...As I have been saying since the almost from the day the Festival was over, this year will not have the same Telluride presence on Oscar night as the past 4 or so. Getting to 20 total nominations seems unlikely.
Were it not for "Argo" and "Amour" the total would be smaller still.
By TFF #39 film:
"Argo" has an anticipated 6 nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score)with another 4 possible (Best Actor, Another Supporting Actor, Production Design and Costume).
"Amour" has an expected three nominations (Foreign Film, Actress and Original Screenplay) and an outside shot at Best Picture could make it a fourth nomination...depending on the ardor of the Academy members and the number of films that gather enough support. Remember that there can be up to ten films nominated for Best Picture. Last year there were nine and if that occurs again this year then "Amour" probably gets a nomination for the biggest prize. "Amour also has another 2 possible nominations for Direction and Lead Actor)
The only other TFF #39 film with a possibility of more than one nomination is "A Royal Affair" which the experts say is likely a Foreign Language Film nominee and a possibility for Best Costume.
The rest of the Telluride field that we might hear about on Nomination morning _Jan. 10th is limited to single nominations:
"Rust and Bone" for Marion Cotillard and Best Actress
"The Gatekeepers" for Best Doc
"No" for Best Foreign Language
Possibly "Paperman" and "Tram" in the Animated Short category.
Overall and irrespective of Telluride, our experts think (at least at this point) that the field will be led either by "Lincoln" or "Les Miserables". Both have a predicted 12 nominations...but "Les Miz" also has an additional 3 possibles. "Lincoln's" 12 seems to be its limit. That being said, I think some of the passion for "Les Miz" has ebbing...especially in light of reviews and the eclipsing power of the recent screenings for "Zero Dark Thirty". So, I suspect "Lincoln" will end up with the most nominations.
Other notes:
"Life of Pi" is looking at 10 nominations.
"The Master" is looking at 7 with another 4 possible, but its Best Picture chances are precarious.
7 nominations appear likely for "Zero Dark Thirty"
"Silver Linings Playbook" looks solid for 4 with another 4 possible.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" looks good for 3 nominations with another 2 possible.
Those films that are threatening to be "players" but are mostly in the "possibles" camp are led by "Django Unchained" with a meager 2 nominations likely but another 8 possible. It's "critical" embargo was lifted on Tuesday night, so we'll see if that makes a difference. "Flight" also has an "under the radar" profile, if you'll pardon the expression...with one expected nomination for Denzel Washington's performance but another 6 possible. And "Anna Karenina" could see 3 nominations...but also has a shot at 5 more.
That's what we think we know at this point about Oscar 2012. We'll see if today's Golden Globe nominations move the needle at all.
SAG NOMINATIONS
Screen Actors Guild nominations from yesterday are here:
Best Ensemble
"Argo"
"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Les Miserables"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Male Actor In A Leading Role
Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"
Best Female Actor In A Leading Role
Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Robert DeNiro - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"
Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Best Stunt Ensemble In A Motion Picture
"The Amazing Spider-Man"
"The Bourne Legacy"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"Les Miserables"
"Skyfall"
Notes: Telluride #39 was recognized in three categories. "Lincoln", "Les Miserables" and "Silver Linings Playbook" led the field with 4 nominations each.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" wasn't eligible as the film used non-SAG actors.
Reportedly the screeners for both "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Django Unchained" were late to the game which might explain the absence of an Ensemble nomination for either...though...you know...Chastain was nominated for ZDT; so the other possibility is that the actors just didn't care that much for either film.
Snubberoos: Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams/The Master, Everyone from "Django". Also a little surprised that Emanuelle Riva wasn't nominated for "Amour".
Surprises: Kidman and Bardem and "Exotic Hotel's" ensemble nomination.
OSCAR MATTERS
SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY OSCAR PODCAST
http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode11.mp3
SCOTT FEINBERG'S LATEST "FEINBERG FORECAST"
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-11-398393
AMOUR NOTES
AMOUR NAMED BEST FILM OF 2012 BY TIME MAGAZINE
http://entertainment.time.com/2012/12/04/top-10-arts-lists/slide/the-invisible-war/
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/time-magazine-names-michael-hanekes-amour-the-best-film-of-2012-20121211
HANEKE PROFILED BY VULTURE.COM
http://www.vulture.com/2012/12/michael-haneke-amour-at-nyff
COMING ATTRACTIONS
Taking a step back this week to remind everyone about which films I've highlighted in this space over the past few months:
"Noah"
"Queen of the Desert"
"Asghar Farhadi Project"
"Nebraska"
"Jane Got a Gun"
"Mobius"
"Twelve Years a Slave"
"Monuments Men"
"Labor Day"
"The Nightingale"
Intriguing, isn't it?
More later today on the Golden Globes and then more on Monday...
Have a great weekend everyone.
Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.
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