Who Gets a Tribute?/EW Looks at "99 Homes"/Alexander Payne in the News: "Nebraska" in Color and "Sideways" Tenth

Good Wednesday everyone...


WHO GETS A TRIBUTE?

I was noodling around the rising suspicion that Tommy Lee Jones "The Homesman" will be screened in just over three weeks in Telluride and as I was doing that, it struck me that a TLJ tribute in coordination with that film.  I can see it pretty clearly.  Maybe co-star and two time Oscar winner Hilary Swank attends as well. Makes a lot of sense to me.

And that got me to thinking seriously about other tribute possibilities.

Pete Hammond suggested a couple of weeks ago that Telluride might be dangling the tribute carrot in front of Chris Nolan in a play to get "Interstellar" on board.  I've never thought it was a big likelihood and recent buzz is that no fest may have the film on its lineup.

I have suggested Nicole Kidman as a tribute possible in conjunction with the almost certain play of "Queen of the Desert".

I have also mentioned a Juliette Binoche tribute should Olivier Assasyas "Clouds of Sils Maria" be a T-ride selection.

Some weeks back, I mentioned a Michael Keaton tribute as a possibility with the screening of "Birdman", although that does seem a little far fetched.

How about Tim Burton if Telluride gets "Big Eyes"...yeah. that would make some sense.

Those seem the best bets to me for tributes, at least for the moment.  Got any ideas?  Comment and let me know.

EW LOOKS AT "99 HOMES"

"99 Homes" with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon via Entertainment Weekly

Entertainment Weekly was up yesterday with a first photo from Ramin Bahrani's "99 Homes" as you can see above.  The film is scheduled to play the Venice fest in competition and I think, given its premiere status vis-a-vis Toronto that it's very likely to play Telluride as well.  Bahrani was at T-ride in 2012 with "At Any Price" with star Dennis Quaid in attendance as well.  "at Any Price" didn't exactly set the world on fire scoring a 60 rating at Metacritic and earning a reported $379,000 domestically.

"99 Homes" focuses on the U.S. housing crisis as Garfield plays a man who gets in over his head and ends up working with Michael Shannon who plays an unscrupulous realtor.

Stories are included here from Entertainment Weekly and The Playlist:

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2014/08/05/andrew-garfield-michael-shannon-99-homes/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/venice-first-look-michael-shannon-andrew-garfield-in-ramin-bahranis-99-homes-20140805


Couple of stray thoughts: "Spiderman vs. General Zod".

And one wonders if Garfield, who attended the fest 2010 with "Never Let Me Go" might return and if he does, if it's possible that his current significant other, Ms. Emma Stone, might be there as well as she's co-starring in Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman".


ALEXANDER PAYNE IN THE NEWS: "NEBRASKA" IN COLOR

Past TFF Guest Director and frequent attendee, Alexander Payne popped up in  my Twitter feed a couple of times yesterday.  First came the news that his Oscar nominated "Nebraska", which was one of my favorite films at the 40th Telluride last year, will look a little different when it's aired on EpixHD TV.  They will air the color version which Payne shot for overseas screening but who was reportedly hopeful that U.S. audiences would never see it that way.

Guess some of us will now.

Thompson on Hollywood has the story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/color-version-of-nebraska-to-show-on-epix-that-alexander-payne-hoped-would-never-be-seen-20140805


PAYNE IN NEWS 2: "SIDEWAYS" TENTH

Payne and his star from "Sideways" Paul Giamatti celebrated the tenth anniversary of the film this past weekend.  "Sideways" was very close to having been a Telluride choice back in 2004 and that near miss is what ultimately led to Payne's stint as TFF Guest Director in 2009.  After that, Payne has been hooked.  I really expect that he'll be in town in three weeks in some capacity, perhaps just hanging with girlfriend Laura Dern...are they still a couple?   (I think so.)  Dern has a couple of films in which she appears that are probably on the Telluride Billl of Fare: "99 Homes" and "Wild"...

Anyway, Payne and Giamatti used the occasion of the Oscar winning film's anniversary to fund raise for a good cause and highlight the wine that was at the heart of the film.

Check the story from The Hollywood Reporter here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sideways-10th-anniversary-celebrated-at-723322


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Payne on Nebraska/Miyazaki on Retirement/The Return of Mickey Mouse/Oscar Podcast

Good Thursday to You...

PAYNE ON NEBRASKA

With less than ten days before Oscar winners are revealed and with only a few days left for ballots to get in (they're due on Feb. 25th), directing nominee Alexander Payne is featured in this lengthy piece from Fade In Online by F.X. Feeney:

http://fadeinonline.com/alexander-payne-interview.html


MIYAZAKI ON RETIREMENT

Animating legend and Oscar nominee Hayao Miyazaki talked to Anne Thompson about his currently nominated "The Wind Rises" and his announced retirement recently.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/miyazaki-talks-retirement-oscars-true-history-in-wind-also-rises


THE RETURN OF MICKEY MOUSE

If you saw the same screening in Telluride that I did you saw the Oscar nominated animated short (and probable favorite to win that statue) "Get a Horse" featuring Disney legend Mickey Mouse.  Steve Pond from The Wrap talks to Lauren McMullan about the short film and the re-emergence of the classic character:

http://www.thewrap.com/get-horse-oscar-nominated-short-mickey-mouse-lauren-macmullan

OSCAR PODCAST

Less than ten days to Oscar and Awards Daily's Sasha Stone has put together her 59th edition of Oscar Podcast:

http://awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/?p=6689


More on Monday...have a great weekend everyone...

The Other Eight Categories/Payne Talks to Variety/"Under the Skin" Trailer

Good Thursday Peeps!

THE OTHER EIGHT CATEGORIES

A couple of weeks back I posted The Film Awards Clearinghouse opening line for 13 major Oscar categories.  I'll update those next week.  Today, a look at the remaining eight "feature" categories.  I am hoping to get together enough data to also get in a set of predictions for the "Shorts" categories but as of yet there's just not enough information.

For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Films are listed in order of the likelihood that they will win that category.  Telluride Films are Bold.

BEST COSTUME

1) The Great Gatsby
2) American Hustle
3) 12 Years a Slave
4) The Invisible Woman
5) The Grandmaster

Note:  This is fairly tight among the top three films.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Great Gatsby
2) Gravity
3) 12 Years a Slave
4) Her
5) American Hustle

Note:  "Gatsby's" lead is substantial.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Gravity
2) Philomena
3) The Book Thief
4) Saving Mr. Banks
5) Her

Note: Gravity's Steven Price is way out front here.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Let It Go/Frozen
2) Ordinary Love/Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
3) Moon Song/Her
4) Happy/Despicable Me 2

Note: "Let it Go" is a prohibitive favorite.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dallas Buyers Club
2) Bad Grandpa
3) The Lone Ranger

Note: DBC is way out front.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Gravity
2) Captain Phillips
3) Lone Survivor
4) All is Lost
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Note:  "Gravity" leads but The Captain is in striking distance.


BEST SOUND MIXING

1) Gravity
2) Captain Phillips
3) Lone Survivor
4) Inside Llewyn Davis
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Note: Ditto the note from Sound Editing.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Gravity
2) The Hobbit: Smaug
3) Iron Man 3
4) Star Trek Into Darkness
5) The Lone Ranger

Note: "Gravity" is the prohibitive favorite here.

Overall, from these eight categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate, "Gravity" adds another four Oscars, "Gatsby" gets two and one each for "Dallas Buyers Club" and "Frozen".



PAYNE TALKS TO VARIETY

Variety's Tim Gray talks to Best Director nominee Alexander Payne about "Nebraska":

http://variety.com/2014/film/awards/alexander-payne-reveals-what-all-the-best-actors-know-1201098203/


"UNDER THE SKIN" TRAILER

Jonathan Glazer's "Under the Skin" starring Scarlett Johansson has a new full length trailer.  You can find it here along with a story about it and the film from The Los Angeles Times here:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/moviesnow/la-et-mn-scarlett-johansson-strips-under-the-skin-trailer-video-20140211,0,7281089.story#axzz2t6wnh1sU


More on Monday...have a great weekend!

Philip Seymour Hoffman/More Toronto Ultimatum Coverage/Nebraska Notes/Gravity Goodies/12 Years Tidbit

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN

I don't know where to start.  I hate this.  Philip Seymour Hoffman is dead at 46.  News reports have said heroin overdose is the cause.

We found out early yesterday afternoon...and it made me physically ill.  Angry, sad.

He was so talented and had such range and at 46 had had enough of a career so that we knew how special he was.  That also means that we can know that we've lost another three or four decades of great work from him.

He was branching out...moving into directing and producing.  I was excited to see how those choices played out.  My thinking: a guy this talented might really be able to bring that same spark to every endeavor he undertook.

His body of work is breath taking...I think I really first noticed him in 1992's "Scent of a Woman" playing Chris O'Donnell's feckless classmate.  For the next few years, he'd continue to pop up in some things...then "Boogie Nights" in 1997 and it was game on:

"The Big Lebowski"
"Happiness"
"Magnolia"...dear God, he's good in this...
"The Talented Mr. Ripley"
"State and Main"
"Almost Famous"...dear God, he's good in this...
"Red Dragon"...an excellent Freddy Lounds...not a nice guy
"Cold Mountain"
"Capote"...dear God...you get it.  (Wins the Oscar after having it play in Telluride with PSH in attendance).
"The Savages"  ditto
"Charlie Wilson's War"  best thing in the flick
"Synechdoche, NY"
"Doubt"
"Moneyball"
"The Master"

all this and more and he was 46...

Two things...

I've always thought his career was one you could point to and tell kids (after all I teach high school kids drama) "Here's a guy that proves that talent CAN get noticed, be rewarded and provide a career".

And on a completely selfish level, he was always one of the people on the list I carry in my head that I thought I might actually get to shake hands with on Colorado Ave. in Telluride or at the Patron Brunch. There are some people I'd like to say "thank you" to for the things that they've created that have been meaningful to me.  Because of the fest and the type of projects that PSH has done, I've always harbored the notion that I might be able to say that in person someday...

Not now...




MORE TORONTO ULTIMATUM COVERAGE

I have added a couple of pother posts/articles concerning the announcement for the Toronto Film Festival about their new policy regarding "premieres" and the programming of new films beginning with this year's festival.  As noted last Thursday, the new policy is clearly aimed at Telluride in an attempt to curb the choice of film makers and distributors to play Telluride first and then Toronto after TIFF has billed a film as a World or North American premiere.

From The Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/2014/01/30/why_tiff_had_to_get_tough_over_film_premieres.html

Business Week:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-01-30/toronto-film-fest-insists-on-premieres

The Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/film/tiff-unveils-new-policy-aimed-at-clinching-premiere-status/article16605658/

At this point, the only response that I've seen from the Telluride camp is a Variety story from last week by Dave McNary that quotes TFF Exec. Director Julie Huntsinger saying, essentially, that TFF will continue to do its thing.  I've re-posted the link to that story here:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/telluride-film-festival-wont-back-down-from-sneak-preview-premieres-1201076983/


NEBRASKA NOTES

Alexander Payne's "Nebraska is nominated for six Academy Awards: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  It'll likely win none on Mar. 2.  It's best shot might be Bob Nelson's screenplay but "Her" or "American Hustle" are more likely.  There's maybe an outside shot for Bruce Dern to surprise as Best Actor...but that's very likely Matthew McConaughey's to lose and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) is a more likely spoiler.  Nevertheless, "Nebraska" continues to be among the best reviewed films of the year (currently sitting at #10 on Metacritic for 2013 http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critic-top-10-lists-best-movies-of-2013 ) and it was #3 for me on my TFF #40 list of films (led by 12 Years and Llewyn Davis).

The "Nebraska" crew is keeping the Oscar fires alight however with a number of posts appearing within the last couple of weeks.  I have included a few here:

Deadline.com interviews Alexander Payne:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-alexander-payne-nebraska-interview/

The Carpetbagger/New York Times talks to Oscar nominee June Squibb:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/20/video-the-roots-of-nebraskas-feisty-wife/

The Hollywood Reporter talks to Nebraska score composer Mark Orton:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-nebraskas-composer-wrote-americana-676067


GRAVITY GOODIES

A month from now you can count on hearing this and reading this in any number of places:  "Winner of the most Oscars for 2013, 'Gravity"..." ; because that will be a true statement.  We still don't know what the exact number of Oscars will be for the Alfonso Cuaron film, but it'll be somewhere between  five and nine. Currently I'm thinking seven.

Variety recently posted this video with "Gravity" Oscar nominees Sandra Bullock and Alfonso Cuaron:

http://variety.com/video/oscars-qa-sandra-bullock-and-director-alfonso-cuaron-video/

And I have included a featurette fromHitFix highlighting both Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron talking about story and screenplay here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/new-gravity-featurette-focuses-on-story-and-screenplay


12 YEARS TIDBIT

And here is a lengthy discussion with Steve McQueen about his masterpiece "12 Years a Slave" and other topics from The Walker Art Center and posted by The Playlist here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-extensive-2-hour-talk-with-steve-mcqueen-about-12-years-a-slave-his-filmography-art-more-20140131



More on Thursday...

The Film Awards Clearinghouse-Oscar 2014 Predictions/Rudderless Sets Sail

Welcome to Thursday!

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE-OSCAR WINNING PREDICTIONS

Well, we all know what the nominees are.  Now begins the nearly six week long process of determining Oscar winners.  The ceremony is set for Mar. 2nd (particularly late this year, reportedly to avoid conflicting with the presentation of the Winter Olympics).  Final ballots don't even go out until the middle of February.

All of that is to get to this...a first look at who or what the experts think the winners will be on Mar. 2nd.

For this first pass at predicting Oscars winners, I have drawn on six of the nine experts I have used throughout the season.  This is for a variety of reasons.  Of the three experts I usually use, some haven't updated their predictions yet or are predicting only in a limited fashion.  So, the six experts that I have used to calibrate this first set of Oscar winner predictions are:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Films/actors are listed in order of the likelihood that they will win that category.  I also am focused on 13 categories with the majority of the technical and shorts categories on hold for the moment.

Telluride Films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) American Hustle
2) 12 Years a Slave
3) Gravity
4) Captain Phillips
5) Nebraska
6) The wolf of Wall Street
7) Philomena
8) Dallas Buyers Club
9) Her

Comment:  Best Picture is perceived to be a real barn burner.  In raw numbers "Hustle" and "12 Years" were actually tied.  "Hustle" edged into the top spot on a tie breaker.  "Gravity" is also very, very close.  Personally, I still think "12 Years a Slave" is going to win the Best Picture Oscar.  You can also find someone as an advocate for the potential "spoiler" scenarios for almost every one of the other six films nominated.  My personal "left field" pick is "Dallas Buyers Club".  Its Film Editing nomination as well as its likely win in two acting categories tells me that the Academy really loves this film.

DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
2) David O. Russell/American Hustle
3) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
4) Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street
5) Alexander Payne/Nebraska

Comment: This group of experts is pretty convinced that there will be a split between Best Picture and Best Direction for the second straight year.  I'm not as convinced.  I still think that there's a reasonable chance that McQueen wins.  The DGA winner may point us to the eventual Oscar winner, but I don't even think that's carved in stone.

Last note, I might be okay with Cuaron winning this instead of McQueen.  Putting "Gravity" together is an impressive feat.

ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity
3) Amy Adams/American Hustle
4) Judi Dench/Philomena
5) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County

Comment: Blanchett is the first of six nominees that are unanimous choices in their categories at this point. She's the very definition of a prohibitive favorite.  At this point, anyone else winning this category on Oscar night would rank as an historic upset.

ACTOR

1) Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf if Wall Street
5) Christian Bale/American Hustle

Comment: McConaughey is a strong favorite here, but it's not unanimous.  There's a significant amount of support for Ejiofor and a Bruce Dern win isn't completely out of the question.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave
2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
3) June Squibb/Nebraska
4) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine
5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County

Comment:  I'm more than a little surprised that Nyong'o is a unanimous favorite in this category.  All six of my experts say she'll win.  Frankly, I think that it's a lot closer than that between her and Lawrence.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
3) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle
4) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips
5) Jonah Hill/American Hustle

Comment: Leto is the unanimous choice here.  Any other winner would be a shock.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) American Hustle
2) Her
3) Nebraska
4) Blue Jasmine
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment:  This is a pretty tough category between the top three screenplays.  On Oscar night, I think that this might actually be the only Oscar that "Hustle" wins.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Philomena
3) The Wolf of Wall Street
4) Captain Phillips
5) Before Midnight

Comment: John Ridley's "12 Years a Slave" script is the unanimous choice to win this category.

FILM EDITING

1) Gravity
2) American Hustle
3) 12 Years a Slave
4) Captain Phillips
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment: "Gravity" isn't a unanimous choice, but it's pretty close.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity
2) Inside Llewyn Davis
3) Nebraska
4) Prisoners
5) The Grandmaster

Comment: "Gravity" is a unanimous choice.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Hunt (TFF #39)
2) The Great Beauty
3) The Broken Circle Breakdown
4) Omar
5) The Missing Picture

Comment:  Any of the top three could win.  The category is very, very tight.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frozen
2) The Wind Rises
3) The Croods
4) Despicable Me 2
5) Ernest and Celestine

Comment: "Frozen" is the sixth film in these 13 categories that is a unanimous pick to win.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Feet from Stardom
2) The Act of Killing (TFF #39)
3) The Square
4) Dirty Wars
5) Cutie and the Boxer

Comment:  "20 Feet" is a strong favorite.

The FAC says (in these 13 categories) that  "Gravity" wins three, "12 Years" wins two,  "American Hustle" wins two, "Dallas Buyers Club" wins two.

Should The FAC have this right (and remember , we're still over a month away) Telluride films pick up five Oscars in these thirteen categories and I think "Slave" beats "Hustle" for the sixth.  Also, a win for "The Hunt" makes it another T-ride Oscar albeit from TFF #39.

RUDDERLESS SETS SAIL

Well, it is finally upon us.  Oklahoma generated film "Rudderless" closes The Sundance Film Festival tomorrow night.  It's been awhile in coming.  I've been talking about it, off and on, for almost four years.  I met co-author Casey Twenter in Kansas City in the summer of 2010 after we had been emailing for a number of months.  Casey had contacted me because he'd found the blog and was interested in Telluride. Over the years, I've been privileged to read two different versions of the script and follow, at a distance, the ups and downs along the way.  It's been a hell of a ride.  There have been a number of incarnations featuring different directing, producing and acting possibilities...stuff I really can't write about.

I am very happy for Casey and his writing partner Jeff Robison who were fortunate to have William H. Macy fall in love with the script.  I'll tell you, that fortune is only a small part of the story.  It was always a good script and Macy is fortunate to have had it fall into his lap and recognize the quality.

"Rudderless" has actually already screened for industry types and the first word is oozing out of corners (including an actual review at /Film (Slashfilm).  The "early ooze" seems pretty positive.

/Film review:

Here's  sample of some of the commentary from the review by /Film writer Germain Lussier:

"Rudderless...a complex story of love, loss, friendship and music"

"it's a touching movie with a fantastic lead performance and even better music."

"Macy is in control of our emotions"

"There is a lot to like about Rudderless"

I have friends who, I think, thought I was putting them on at times over these last four years; who didn't believe that the project existed, took place in Oklahoma, would ever make it in front of cameras or would find its way to a theater.  Well, tomorrow night in Park City, Utah, all those doubts will be put to rest.

I'll be anxiously awaiting to see the critical response and to see what distribution outfit picks the film up...come on TWC, Fox Searchlight and SPC.

Congratulations Casey and Jeff...you dreamed it and it's about to happen!  On behalf of all of us on the fringe of the film business and who harbor dreams of being a little less on the fringe, thanks!  "Rudderless" gives us all hope!

Finally, a note to Gary Meyer, Julie Huntsinger and Telluride programmers...I know that the Sundance/Telluride crossover film is very rare (seems like it happens about once every five years or so) and the last one was "An Education" (2009)...so, if the eventual distributor hasn't already released this film by Labor Day...TFF #41?  Give it a thought.

More on Monday...have a good weekend!

The PGA, SAG and The Critic's Choice/Nebraska, Tim's Vermeer and All is Lost Music

Good morning on this Monday...


THE PGA, SAG AND CRITIC'S CHOICE

Since Oscar nomination morning last Thursday, three groups have weighed in on their choices for the Best in film.



***PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

Well, it just keeps getting weirder and weirder.  The Producers Guild named "12 Years a Slave" AND "Gravity" Best Films late last night in an unprecedented tie.  A topsy-turvy race for the Oscar is now even topsier and turvier.  Many pundits thought that The PGA would point us toward the Best Picture winner...and maybe it has...sort of.  A lot of the those same pundits thought "American Hustle" was going to continue its winning streak last night and that didn't happen.  So, the takeaway here seems to be the most wide open Best Picture race in a long, long time.

For some analysis, take a look at this post filed last nigh from Kristopher Tapley of HitFix/InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/gravity-and-12-years-a-slave-tie-at-2014-pga-awards-breaking-bad-and-modern-family-win-tv-prizes
 
And Pete Hammond of Deadline.com

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/producers-guilds-stunner-of-a-split-decision-how-does-it-alter-the-oscar-race/

And Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/pga-awards-12-years-gravity-672440

***SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

20th ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS® RECIPIENTS

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY / Ron Woodroof – “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB” (Focus Features)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

CATE BLANCHETT / Jasmine – “BLUE JASMINE” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

JARED LETO / Rayon – “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB” (Focus Features)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

LUPITA NYONG’O / Patsey – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

AMERICAN HUSTLE (Columbia Pictures)

AMY ADAMS / Sydney Prosser

CHRISTIAN BALE / Irving Rosenfeld

LOUIS C.K. / Stoddard Thorsen

BRADLEY COOPER / Richie DiMaso

PAUL HERMAN / Alfonse Simone

JACK HUSTON / Pete Musane

JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Rosalyn Rosenfeld

ALESSANDRO NIVOLA / Federal Prosecutor

MICHAEL PEÑA / Sheik (Agent Hernandez)

JEREMY RENNER / Mayor Carmine Polito

ELISABETH RÖHM / Dolly Polito

SHEA WHIGHAM / Carl Elway

***CRITIC'S CHOICE WINNERS:

WINNERS OF THE 19th ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE MOVIE AWARDS

Best Picture – “12 Years a Slave”

Best Actor – Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Best Actress – Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Best Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

Best Young Actor/Actress – Adele Exarchopoulos, “Blue Is The Warmest Color”

Best Acting Ensemble – “American Hustle”

Best Director – Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”

Best Original Screenplay – Spike Jonze, “Her”

Best Adapted Screenplay – John Ridley, “12 Years a Slave”

Best Cinematography – Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity”

Best Art Direction – Catherine Martin (Production Designer), Beverley Dunn (Set Decorator), “The Great Gatsby”

Best Editing – Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, “Gravity”

Best Costume Design – Catherine Martin, “The Great Gatsby”

Best Hair & Makeup – “American Hustle”

Best Visual Effects – “Gravity”

Best Animated Feature – “Frozen”

Best Action Movie – “Lone Survivor”

Best Actor in an Action Movie – Mark Wahlberg, “Lone Survivor”

Best Actress in an Action Movie – Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”

Best Comedy – “American Hustle”

Best Actor in a Comedy – Leonardo DiCaprio, “Wolf of Wall Street”

Best Actress in a Comedy – Amy Adams, “American Hustle”

Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie – “Gravity”

Best Foreign Language Film – “Blue Is the Warmest Color”

Best Documentary Feature – “20 Feet From Stardom”

Best Song – “Let It Go” Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez, “Frozen”

Best Score – Steven Price, “Gravity”

A number of the Oscar pundits believe the PGA win points the way.

NEBRASKA, TIM'S VERMEER AND ALL IS LOST MUSIC

Here are a few stories that were making news the last week about TFF #40 films:

Will Forte (Nebraska) recently spoke at the Variety Breakthrough of the Year Wards.  Here's the link to that video:

http://variety.com/video/video-will-forte-talks-nebraska-at-varietys-breakthrough-of-the-year-awards/

The Carpetbagger from The New York Times recently talked to Teller about his "Tim's Vermeer":

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/10/teller-on-penns-idea-tims-hypothesis-and-vermeers-painting/

The Playlist talks to Golden Globe score winner Alex Ebert about his music for "All is Lost" and other items:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander-ebert-talks-scoring-all-is-lost-getting-robert-redford-to-surrender-almost-making-a-musical-with-heath-ledger-20131212

The FAC Vol. 5A/The Other Metric/Oscar's Look/Nebraska Notes/Labor Day Rush

Good Thursday Everyone...

I'm continuing to update Oscar categories as we get closer and closer to nomination morning (Jan. 16-one week away!),  Today, I'm updating the Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 5A

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) 12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Captain Phillips (2)

3) Philomena (4)

4) Before Midnight (5)

5) The Wolf of Wall Street (3)

6) August: Osage County (6)

7) Short Term 12 (8)

8) Blue is the Warmest Color (7)

9) The Spectacular Now (New)

10) The Book Thief (Semi-New)

Dropping Out: "Lone Survivor" and "Labor Day".

Comment: The top six listed seem to be the serious players with "Wolf" dropping a bit, perhaps due to the conversation about whether the film glorifies/endorses the kind of behavior it depicts.  "August" still seems to be on the outside, but just barely and "Short Term 12" has a legit shot to make the field as a sleeper.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) American Hustle (3)

2) Nebraska (2)

3) Her (4)

4) Inside Llewyn Davis (1)

5) Blue Jasmine (5)

6) Gravity (7)

7) Enough Said (9)

8) Dallas Buyers Club (8)

9) Fruitvale Station (New)

10) Lee Daniel's The Butler (10)

Dropping Out: "Saving Mr. Banks"

Comment:  "Llewyn" takes a pretty big fall owing almost certainly to the lack of a WGA nomination last week.  This category is very tight with only the top three listed above as very likely Oscar nominees.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity (1)

2) 12 Years a Slave (2-TIE)

2) Inside Llewyn Davis (2-TIE)

4) Prisoners (4)

5) Nebraska (6)

6) Captain Phillips (5)

7) Rush (7)

8) Her (8)

9) The Grandmaster (New)

10) All is Lost (9)

Comment:  Every few years some category appears to have the possibility of a complete Telluride slate of nominees.  This years it's Cinematography which, if these numbers don't lie, would happen next week.  Realistically, almost any of the top ten could end up with a nomination.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Gravity (1)

2) 12 Years a Slave (2)

3) Captain Phillips (3)

4) American Hustle (4)

5) Rush (5)

6) The Wolf of Wall Street (6)

7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)

8) All is Lost (7)

9) Her (9)

10) Lone Survivor (New)

Dropping Out: "Nebraska"

Comment: A very competitive category as well through the first six places with both "Llewyn " and "Lost" also realistic possibilities to sneak into a nomination.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 12 Years a Slave (1)

2) The Great Gatsby (2)

3) Saving Mr. Banks (3)

4) The Hobbit: Smaug (4)

5) Inside Llewyn Davis (5)

6) Gravity (6)

7) Her (7)

8) American Hustle (8)

9) The Invisible Woman (9)

10) Oz The Great and Powerful (10)

Comment:  That's right, a category with absolutely no movement in the past couple of weeks.  This category seems ultra-competitive through the top seven spots and I have a feeling the #8 "American Hustle" might sneak in.

Overall, in these five categories Telluride #40 would have 12 additional nominations (if the metric is 100% accurate) and another 7 possibilities.

Beginning Monday I will post Oscar category updates each day leading up to Oscar Nomination announcement morning (Thursday).  Monday and Tuesday I'll update the remaining "under the line categories.  On Monday: The Shorts: Animated, Documentary, Live Action as well as Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  On Tuesday: Original Song, Original Score, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects.

THE OTHER METRIC

A week ago, I added another metric as a way of looking at the Best Picture race.  It utilized the results from Golden Globe nominations, The Screen Actors Guild, The American Film Institute, The Los Angeles Critics, The New York Film Critics Circle and The National Board of Review.  In the last week, three other guilds (Producers, Directors and Writers) have announced as well as The National Society of Film Critics and The British Association of Film and Television Arts.  That's a total of 10 organizational announcements that I have compiled.  If we believe that success among these organizations is indicative of Oscar nomination potential then here's what they tell us (if they tell us anything).

7 films get nominated for Best Picture

Leading the way is "American Hustle" named by nine of these groups (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NYFCC, DGA, PGA, WGA, NSFC and BAFTA).

Next is "12 Years a Slave" named eight times (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, NSFC, BAFTA)

Two films were named seven times:
"Gravity" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
"Her" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, PGA, WGA, NSFC)

Two films have six mentions:
"Captain Phillips" (Golden Globes, AFI, DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA)
"The Wolf of Wall Street" (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, WGA)

"Nebraska" has five mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, PGA, WGA)

"Inside Llewyn Davis" has four mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, NSFC)

So this metric suggests that these are the eight most likely Best Picture nominees a week from today.

Films with three mentions and potential spoilers/additions:

"Dallas Buyers Club" (SAG, PGA, WGA)
"Saving Mr. Banks" (AFI, NBR, PGA)

It will be interesting to see how this metric plays out next week.

OSCAR'S LOOK FOR 2014

 
Here's the official poster for this year's Oscars featuring host Ellen Degeneres.  I have also links the HitFix story that goes with the poster/announcement:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/academy-unveils-official-poster-for-2014-oscars


NEBRASKA NOTES

The Wrap talks to the producers of Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" about the decade long process it took to get the film to the screen:

http://www.thewrap.com/nebraska-alexander-payne-producers-albert-berger-ron-yerxa


Then The Wrap added this conversation with "Nebraska" cinematographer Phedon Papamichael:

http://www.thewrap.com/nebraska-cinematographer-explains-bruce-derns-face-better-black-white/

Screenwriter Bob Nelson talks to Vulture.com's Kyle Buchanan about the toughest scene to write in the film:

http://www.vulture.com/2014/01/toughest-scene-i-wrote-nebraskas-bob-nelson.html


OSCAR PODCAST

Sasha Stone of Awards Daily posted her latest Oscar podcast which you can find here:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/?p=2264


LABOR DAY RUSH

The Playlist posted a story this week with new images and television spots for Jason Reitman's "Labor Day".  According to my latest FAC, "Labor Day" has the smallest of shots at two Oscar nominations next week:  Best Actress for Kate Winslet and Best Adapted Screenplay.  Here's the story from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-tv-spot-photos-of-jason-reitmans-labor-day-starring-kate-winslet-josh-brolin-20140103


More on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday next week in the run up to the Oscar nomination announcement.

The Film Awards Clearinghouse 2014 Vol. 5-The Major Categories/HitFix's 25 "Prestige" 2014 Titles/McQueen and Cuaron

Good Monday Everybody...

I'm back to the "real world" today as classes resume and I start the second semester for this academic year. It's going to get busy!

Nevertheless, MTFB goes on as scheduled beginning with an update of Oscar predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the six major categories.

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL.5-MAJOR CATEGORIES

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts as the metric for The FAC:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) 12 Years A Slave (1)
2) Gravity (2)
3) American Hustle (3)
4) Nebraska (4)
5) Captain Phillips (5)
6) Wolf of Wall Street (6)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)
8) Saving Mr. Banks (7)
9) Her (9)
10) Dallas Buyers Club (10)
11) Lee Daniels' The Butler (12)
12) Philomena (11)
13) Blue Jasmine (14)
14) August: Osage County (15)
15) Fruitvale Station (13)

Comment:  No film drops out from our last look at this category and there hasn't been drastic movement.  Clearly the news of this past week's snubs of "Inside Llewyn Davis" by the Producers Guild and the Writers Guild hasn't filtered into the predictions of the nine Oscar Experts that I use to put together the FAC.  I suspect that it will in the next week or so.  The Directors Guild announcement tomorrow may be "Llewyn's" last best chance to pull out a Best Picture nomination.

On the other hand, I have a theory that "Llewyn" may be exactly that kind of picture that may not engender love from all over the various parts of the 6,000 Academy members, but may have enough passionate supporters to get it a Best Picture nomination irrespective of what the Guilds have been saying.  As a number of Oscar bloggers have pointed out, if a film can get 300 #1 votes, it's a nominee and it doesn't much matter what the other 5,700+ Academy members think.  That's universally assumed to be the explanation for the Best Picture nomination for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" a couple of years ago.

It's wroth thinking about.

It's also worth noting that the nomination ballot deadline is Wednesday.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity (1)
2) Steve McQueen/12 Years a  Slave (2)
3) David O. Russell/American Hustle (5)
4) Paul Greengrass/Captain Phillips (3)
5) Martin Scorsese/Wolf of Wall Street (4)
6) Alexander Payne/Nebraska (6)
7) Joel and Ethan Coen/Inside Llewyn Davis (7)
8) Spike Jonze/Her (8)
9) John Lee Hancock/Saving Mr. Banks (9)
10) Lee Daniels/Lee Daniels' The Butler (10)

Comment: Russell makes a substantial move.  I think the Scorsese and Greengrass support may be soft which likely opens the door for Payne.  Coens need some DGA help tomorrow.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine (1)
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity (2)
3) Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) Judi Dench/Philomena (4)
5) Meryl Streep/August:Osage County (5)
6) Amy Adams/American Hustle (6)
7) Brie Larson/Short Term 12 (7)
8) Adele Exarchopolous/Blue is the Warmest Color (8)

9) Kate Winslet/Labor Day (9)

10) Julie Delpy/Before Midnight (10)

Comment:  Is there a little softening in the notion that Meryl Streep's nomination is a lock?  In a category that has been remarkably consistent for months, that seems to be the only suspense at this point.  

Additionally, Blanchett has been on top (way on top) in EVERY FAC.  She gets a perfect score on The FAC metric again this time around (as do the leaders in both Supporting categories in this edition of The FAC).

BEST ACTOR

1) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Matthew McConnaughey/Dallas Buyers Club (3)

3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska (2)

4) Tom Hanks/Captain Phillips (5)

5) Robert Redford/All is Lost (4)

6) Leonardo DiCaprio/Wolf of Wall Street (7)

7) Forest Whitaker/Lee Daniels' The Butler (6)

8) Christian Bale/American Hustle (8)

9) Oscar Isaac/Inside Llewyn Davis (9)

10) Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station (10)

Comment:  Redford's spot seems to still be shaky and although the latest number crunching suggests that DiCaprio is the most likely beneficiary, I'm keeping my eye on Bale and even Joaquin Phoenix for "Her".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (2)

3) Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels' The Butler (3)

4) June Squibb/Nebraska (4)

5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (5)

6) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (7)

7) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station (6)

8) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County (8)

9) Scarlett Johansson/Her (9)

10) Lea Seydoux/Blue is the Warmest Color (New)

Comment: Margot Robbie (Wolf) drops off the top ten in this category.  Frankly, I think the only locks are Nyong'o and Lawrence.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (1)

2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave (2)

3) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips (3)

4) Daniel Bruhl/Rush (5)

5) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (8)

6) James Gandolfini/Enough Said (6)

7) Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks (4)

8) Jonah Hill/Wolf of Wall Street (7)

9) Will Forte/Nebraska (9)

10) James Franco/Spring Breakers (New)

Comment: Jake Gyllenhaal's "Prisoners" performance drops off the FAC.  This is the most fluid of any major category at this point with a big jump for Bradley Cooper and a big dive for Tom Hanks.  As I have said, I think "Mr. Banks" has been losing gas for about a month and this would seem to provide a little gas to the theory.  Cooper's rise underlines the general warm up for "American Hustle" as does Russell's movement in the directing category.  I've been saying for a good long time that I think "American Hustle" is the film that has a chance to knock off "12 Years" not "Gravity".  Some of the pros seem to be coming around to that possibility as well.

Bottom line, though, I still think "12 Years" is going to win the Big Prize on Mar. 2.

Finally, my bold prediction that TFF #40 films would get 40 nominations may be in some serious jeopardy. With "Llewyn" in trouble and Redford also looking more dicey, 40 nominations may not be achievable after all.

In all, in these six major categories and if these metrics were 100% accurate on Jan. 16 Telluride #40 films would have 13 nominations with another seven possibilities.

Next edition of MTFB/FAC will look at where we stand in Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.

HITFIX AND 25 "PRESTIGE" PICTURES FOR 2014...AND TFF #41?

Last week HitFix posted 25 films that were their "most anticipated" for 2014.  They've followed that up this week with a listing of 25 "Prestige" films that they're looking forward to and I thought it would be interesting to parse those for possible Telluride #41 titles.  So here's what they listed that seems to me to have some T-ride potential for 9 months from now:

# 20-Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  It's produced by See Saw and distributed by The Weinstein's, both of which make it at least a possibility.

#15-Alejandro Gonazalez Inarritu's "Birdman".  Frankly, I'll be surprised if this is NOT at Telluride unless Inarritus' foray into comedy (that's right, it's a comedy) proves too great a stretch for the man behind "Babel", "Biutiful" and "21 Grams".  That's a valid concern looking at his body of work.

#14-"Untitled Noah Baumbach/Greta Gerwig School Project".  Again, I'd kind of b surprised if this doesn't play at Telluride.  Baumbach and Gerwig's "Frances Ha" was well received at TFF #39 and Baumbach has a previous history with the fest.

#9-Mike Leigh's "Mr. Turner".  The third straight film to list here that I think is almost a lock to play Telluride.  Leigh has been a frequent guest of the fest, so I expect him to be back with this film about artist J.M.W. Turner.

#8-Thomas Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd".  This one isn't as solid a lock as the previous three but Vinterberg's "The Hunt" played well at TFF #39 and could still be a Best Foreign Language Oscar nominee in a few days.  It probably doesn't hurt that Carey Mulligan has been a Telluride gust previously with "An Education" and "Never Let Me Go".  Fox Searchlight is producing which could also decide to try to place the film in the Telluride lineup.

#7-Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  Admittedly, I may be wishing for this to be true much more than it's real chances to play.  This film was included on the HitFix list last week as well.  Again, Miller and Sony Pictures Classics make it a not completely unrealistic possibility.

#4- Todd Haynes' "Carol".  Mostly I've included this because Haynes' "I'm Not Here" played at Telluride in 2007 and The Weinstein's are distributing...also Film4 is part of the producing group. I'd just like to stoke the fires for a possible Cate Blanchett tribute.

There are other films in the list of 25 that I'd LIKE to see show up at the SHOW.  Their #1 is Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice"..yes please.  But I don't think that's terribly likely.  Others on the list that I'd like to see in the San Juans but seem on the unlikely side, at least at the moment:
Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" (although friend of the blog Christopher Schiller thinks it might be a possibility), David Fincher's "Gone Girl", David Cronenberg's "Map to the Stars", Jon Stewart's "Rosewater" and Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken".

Finally, the article itself speculates that "Foxcatcher", "Birdman" and the Baumbach project could be Telluride material.

Find the article here:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/25-most-anticipated-prestige-films-of-2014-inherent-vice-nymphomaniac-the-grand-budapest-hotel



MC QUEEN AND CUARON

Here are major profiles of the two men who are expected to duke it out for the Best Director Oscar.  McQueen's is from The Guardian and Cuaron's if from The New York Times:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/jan/04/steve-mcqueen-my-painful-childhood-shame

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/movies/awardsseason/alfonso-cuaron-discusses-his-films.html?smid=tw-nytmovies&seid=auto&_r=0