MTFB Oscar Take: Where We're At / Looks at Jay Kelly

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: WHERE WE'RE AT

I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories.  I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).

But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently.  These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way.  Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).

Other "possible" nominations:

Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Secret Agent: Best Picture.

If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.

Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22

Other "possible" nominations: 10.

LOOKS AT JAY KELLY

With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th),  the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.

Behind the Scenes with Clooney, Sandler and Baumbach from Netflix via YouTube.

Laura Dern and Adam Sandler with Awards Watch via YouTube.

 

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Final Look at Oscar Experts Best Picture Predictions: Screen Rant / Best Picture Scoreboard / Interviews from The New York Film Festival (Jay Kelly and Sentimental Value) / Final Trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

 FINAL LOOK AT OSCAR EXPERTS BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS: SCREEN RANT

 Here's a last look at what Oscar Experts are predicting for Best Picture,  These come from Screen Rant and were updated last Friday (TFF films are in Bold):

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle After Another

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) A House of Dynamite

7) Wicked: For Good

8) The Secret Agent

9) Avatar: Fire and Ask

10) Jay Kelly

So Screen Rant has four TFF #52 films in the final ten for Best Picture which would tie for the record number of Telluride films nominated for BP in a single.

Stay tuned for my first jump into the prediction pool on Monday with my takes on Best Picture and Direction.

Here's the link to the Screen Rant prediction page.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP), The Contending (TC) and Screen Rant (SC),  here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Sentimental Value (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Jay Kelly (7): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (4): THR, V, NBP, SR

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

INTERVIEWS FROM THE NEW YORK FILM FESTIVAL

From YouTube:

Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern for Jay Kelly.

Joachim Trier and Noah Baumbach for Sentimental Value and Jay Kelly.

FINAL TRAILER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

Just ahead of its Oct. 24th release comes the final trailer for Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. Here it is from You Tube:

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Guest Directors (Plural) Announced / First Look at The Son

 GUEST DIRECTORS (PLURAL) ANNOUNCED

TFF has announced its Guest Directors for 2022 and as you can read, there are two this year.  Here's the press release from TFF:

Telluride Film Festival (TFF), presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce dissident Russian filmmakers Kantemir Balagov and Kira Kovalenko as its 2022 Festival Guest Directors. The award-winning filmmakers are set to select a series of films to present at the 49th Telluride Film Festival running September 2 - 5, 2022. 

Festival organizers annually select the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Directors serve as key collaborators in the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Balagov’s and Kovalenko’s film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.

Kantemir Balagov was born in 1991 in the city of Nalchik of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic. He briefly left the city to study economics in Stavropol, but soon realized his interests were in the arts and returned to Nalchik to enroll in film school at Kabardino-Balkarian State University under the direction of Alexander Sokurov. Upon graduation he directed his first feature film, CLOSENESS, for which he received the FIPRESCI Prize Un Certain Regard at the 2017 Cannes Film Festival. His second feature, BEANPOLE, also won the FIPRESCI Prize Un Certain Regard and the Best Director Prize Un Certain Regard at Cannes in 2019 and was an Oscar shortlist. His next project, TV series THE LAST OF US, is set to premiere on HBO in 2023.

 “I was in Telluride for the first time in 2017 with my first film CLOSENESS,” says Balagov. “As a reclusive person, I always feel anxious about going to festivals, but on the first day of being in Telluride, I felt it was different. The festival cares about the uniqueness of the various authors’ statements, it provides love and vulnerability, and it makes you feel at home. Tom and Julie put so much heart and soul into it and have created an incredible community. No, community is the wrong word. They have created a family, and Kira and I are so honored to be a part of this family. We are thrilled to be the Guest Directors this year. We promise that we will passionately pick the films because we believe that movies are little miracles that we desperately need right now.” 

 Kira Kovalenko was born in 1989 in Nalchik, Russia and attended Kabardino-Balkarian State University’s film school under Alexander Sokurov’s direction. Her first feature film, SOFICHKA, was released in 2016. Her second feature, UNCLENCHING THE FISTS, premiered in 2021 to much acclaim, winning the Grand Prize Un Certain Regard at the Cannes Film Festival. 

 “2021 was my first time in America,” comments Kovalenko. “I was told that I would be going to the best place on earth. I was anxiously waiting and fantasizing. On the way to the festival, I opened the book that I carried with me. There was a photo. In the photo were Larisa Shepitko, Werner Herzog, and Ed Lachman. I went to where this photo was taken. This was my first Telluride experience. It is not only a place where cinema, fate, history, and the spirit of the place intertwine. To everyone who has been there once it becomes special. There is a secret in this. I think this is the secret of love. The secret of the love that Tom and Julie have for the cinema. Love for the place. And now I receive such a huge gift to be the Guest Director. I have a chance to become a part of this mystery and share movies that help me live, give me hope and remind me not to forget about miracles.”

 “One of the most special aspects of Telluride is the remarkable family of returning filmmakers that has formed over the years,” comments TFF executive director Julie Huntsinger. “These wildly talented people continue to create films of such high quality and regard, and we are thrilled to continue to discover and invite their new works again and again. There are threads of shared continuity between the filmmakers themselves as well. An unfailing humanism, a desire to be truthful and brave and tell stories that make us think and feel in profound ways. Our Guest Directors this year, Kantemir Balagov and Kira Kovalenko are not only two returning filmmakers with a distinct point of view, but they are also wonderful, young cinephiles (they met at film school) who will bring their brave and singular voices to a section we cannot wait to share with our wider audience in September.”

 Past Guest Directors include Barry Jenkins, Pico Iyer, Jonathan Lethem, Joshua Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.

 The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history. 

 For more information about Telluride Film Festival, visit www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

INDIEWIRE LISTS 40 OSCAR POSSIBLES

A bit more than a week ago Indiewire posted their take on the coming Oscar season with a list of 40 films to being paying attention to.  As you might expect, there are a lot of titles listed that I am eyeballing as possible Labor Day weekend selections for Southwest Colorado.  Including:

Close

One Fine Morning

Armageddon Time

Till

Blonde

Stars at Noon

Moonage Daydream

Broker

Babylon

Showing Up

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

White Noise

Bardo

Chevalier

The Son

TAR

The complete Indiewire post is linked here.

***She Said...is on the Indiewire list and sort of seems like a Telluride natural but with Universal producing and distributing and not having had much of a presence historically at T-ride...I'm not really putting it on the list...but I am also not really ruling it out either.

FIRST LOOK AT THE SON

Awards Watch's Erik Anderson tweeted a first pic of Hugh Jackman from Florian Zeller's The Son.  The film has some strong Telluride vibes what with Zeller having had The Father selected among the films that would have screened at TFF in 2020 had Covid not changed the world.  In addition, other Telluride signifiers include the film's distribution by Sony Pictures Classics and it probably doesn't hurt that Laura Dern is in the cast.

Anyway, here's the pic from Anderson's Twitter feed:

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Oscar Update: Best Picture / New Looks at Ammonite / Fireball Trailer and Poster / The Way I See It

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture updated since I last posted this category on  Sept. 17th.  A film's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

2) Nomadland (1)

3) Mank (2)

4) News of the World (6)

5) The Father (11)

6) One Night in Miami (13)

7) Da 5 Bloods (5)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah (-)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (14)

10) Minari (15)

Others: On the Rocks, Ammonite, Tenet

NEW LOOKS AT AMMONITE

Francis Lee's Ammonite (a TFF #47 pick) has both a new trailer and a new poster as the film heads toward its announced release date of Nov. 13th.  Here, from YouTube, is the latest trailer:

And here's a look at the latest poster for the film as well:

FIREBALL TRAILER AND POSTER

Here's a first trailer for Werner Herzog and Clive Oppenheimer's Fireball: Visitors from Darker Worlds:

And a poster too:

THE WAY I SEE IT

With its screening this past weekend on MSNBC, there was a good deal of news that was put forth about the documentary The Way I See It which focuses on the career of photographer Pete Souza who photographed both the Reagan and Obama White Houses.

The documentary originally screened last month in theaters.

Check out the following articles:

The Hollywood Reporter

Time.com

Variety

 

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Lists and Lists / Seeing The Way I See It

LISTS AND LISTS

I've done all the comparisons and have what I believe to be an accurate list of where the announced TFF #47 films would have or will be playing as far as other film fests are concerned.  This, of course, does not include films (save for Nomadland) that have yet to be announced for the New York Film Fest.  I'm expecting we'll have that information this week.  It will also be interesting to see what's announced for and if films are announced for the BFI/London Film Fest as well as the American Film Institute Film Fest.

Here's the rundown of all of the TFF #47 films that have other film fest connections at this point:

Ammonite:TIFF, Cannes

Charlatan: Berlin

Concrete Cowboy: TIFF

The Duke: Venice

The Father: TIFF, Sundance

Fireball: TIFF

Ibrahim: Cannes

Mainstream: Venice

Mandibules: Venice

MLK/FBI: TIFF

Never Gonna Snow Again: Venice

Nomadland: TIFF, Venice, NYFF (centerpiece)

Notturno: TIFF, Venice

There Is No Evil: Berlin

The Truffle Hunters: Cannes, Sundance

So 15 of the 29 TFF #47 feature titles have been chosen by other major film fests.

SEEING THE WAY I SEE IT

After the reveal that Dawn Porter's The Way I See it, a documentary about former White House photographer Pete Souza, Focus Features has released a trailer as well as a poster (as you can see above).  The IMDb description for the film is as follows:

"Former Chief Official White House Photographer Pete Souza's journey as a person with top secret clearance and total access to the President."

Frequent Telluride Film Fest guest/visitor Laura Dern is among the producers of the film.

Here's the newly released trailer via YouTube:

Focus is saying that the film will be released in theaters in September.

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And the Oscar Goes to...Parasite / The "Telluride Effect" Returns

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... PARASITE

TFF #46 films in Bold

BEST PICTURE

Winner: Parasite 

BEST DIRECTION

Winner: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Parasite

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Winner: Parasite

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Winner: American Factory

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Winner: Toy Story 4

BEST FILM EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: 1917

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: Joker

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: 1917

BEST COSTUMES

Winner: Little Women

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Bombshell

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: 1917

BEST SOUND EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Winner: 1917

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: The Neighbor's Window

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: Hair Love

Telluride films win eight Oscars: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and INternational Film for Parasite.  Film Editing and Sound Editing for Ford v Ferrari.  Best Actress for Renee Zellweger in Judy and Best Supporting Actress for Laura Dern in Marriage Story

My personal prediction rate for Oscar #92: 19 of 24 for a 79.2% rate almost exactly my prediction average for the last decades (79.6%)

Surprises were all but non-existent.  If you check out Sunday's predictions here you'll see that in every instance where I missed the film that won, the film I had listed as a "Maybe" picked up the trophy.

That said, the Parasite wins for directing and Best Picture were electrifying.  Parasite, as I noted yesterday, had clearly been gaining momentum and a lot of Oscar pundits did call for it to win.  Despite that, there was still a real sense of surprise in the hall, at least so it seemed to me, when Jane Fonda made the announcement.

Parasite's win is historic as it marks the first time in the Academy's history that a non-English language film has won Best Picture.  My bet is that the diversification initiative that the Academy has been pursuing regarding its membership over the past few years made Parasite's win a reality.  Additionally, as my friend Sasha Stone is fond of saying...Actors rule...and it feels like that branch of the Academy (its largest) made the difference over 1917 which had won awards from the PGA, DGA, Bafta and the Golden Globe for drama.




THE "TELLURIDE EFFECT" RETURNS

And, of course, Parasite's Best Picture win brings Telluride back into the conversation as an indispensable stop for films that are serious Oscar contenders.  The Telluride string was broken last year with Green Book's win but Parasite re-establishes TFF in the Oscar pantheon with the 10th Best Picture winner in the last 12 years having screened at the Fest prior to its winning the top honor.

You have to hand it to Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and the rest of the crew that curates the fest's selections.  Parasite wins four Oscars plus Best Picture nominations for Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari meaning that a full third of the BP nominees played Telluride plus The Two Popes which may well have been the 10th place film in initial balloting.  Don't forget Renee Zellweger's Best Actress winning turn in Judy which bowed at Telluride before anywhere else and Laura Dern's win for Best Supporting Actress.


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FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN ALL 24 CATEGORIES / FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Here we are...

After a shortened Oscar season window, the ceremony is a couple of weeks earlier than has been the case recently, we have arrived at the moment of truth.  Hours from now Oscar nominees will become Oscar winners.

It's been a really interesting season especially in the race for Best Picture.  In other cases, such as all four of the acting categories, if there is a winner besides the widely expected four that have been the leaders all season, it would be a major surprise.

Sooo...here they are...drumroll please...

BEST PICTURE

Winner: 1917
Maybe: Parasite or Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Note:  The bare consensus among the Oscar experts is with 1917 but there is a strong current over the last couple of weeks in the direction of Parasite.  Either win pleases me.  I'd personally put 1917 at the top of my Oscar ballot if I had one and I'd love to see Parasite win to revive the "Telluride Effect".  Two other quick points...I wouldn't be shocked if Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood won the big award tonight.  I can envision it being the second or third choice on a lot of 1917 and Parasite ballots and it will get a healthy share of #1 ballots on its own.  And...the latest stirring in the last week is a theory that Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit stuns tonight.  I think that's a big stretch but as insane as Best Picture has been this year...who knows?

BEST DIRECTION
Winner: Sam Mendes/1917
Maybe: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

BEST ACTOR
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Maybe: Adam Driver/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
Maybe: Joe Pesci/The Irishman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Parasite
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Winner: parasite
Maybe: Pain and Glory

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Winner: American Factory
Maybe: For Sama

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: Toy Story 4
Maybe: Klaus or I Lost My Body

BEST FILM EDITING
Winner: Ford v Ferrari
Maybe: Parasite

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
Maybe: Stand Up/Harriet

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Joker
Maybe: 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST COSTUMES
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Bombshell
Maybe: Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: 1917
Maybe: The Irishman

BEST SOUND EDITING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: The Neighbor's WIndow
Maybe: Brotherhood

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Maybe: St. Louis Superman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Hair Love
Maybe: Kitbull


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Awards Daily Sasha says 1917 by an eyelash.

Awards Watch Awards Watch is picking Parasite to win Best Picture.

Variety  Variety opts for 1917 to win BP.

The Playlist  The Playlist says Parasite.

Deadline Deadline picks 1917.

The Hollywood Reporter THR picks 1917.

Indiewire  Indiewire predicts Parasite to win.

The Los Angeles Times  The LA Times says the winner will be 1917.

The New York Times  The Times says it's 1917.

Time Time says it's time for 1917.

Awards Circuit  AC says it will be 1917.

Entertainment Weekly  EW predicts Parasite.

The Hollywood News.  Hollywood News predicts Parasite.

The BBC  The BBC says 1917 wins Best Pic.

Collider Collider predicts Parasite to win.

Vanity Fair The Vanity Fair experts lean toward 1917.

Vulture   Vulture is in the Parasite camp.

The Toronto Star  The Star is picking 1917.

And here are the two big Oscar expert collectives:

The Gurus of Gold  We Gurus collectively are saying 1917.  (You'll see that's what I predicted last weekend when we were canvassed for our Final Guru picks).

Gold Derby  And Gold Derby's collective says it will be 1917.

I have TFF #46 films winning five total Oscars tonight:

Parasite: International Film, Original Screenplay
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari: Editing

TFF #46 films listed as the :Maybes: tonight include:


How will I do tonight?    Here's a quick look back to my decade long Oscar prediction track record:

2019: 19/24
2018: 21/24
2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

That's a total of 179/240 for a correct percentage rate of  74.6%

Stay tuned tonight.  Like many of my friends in this business, I'll likely be tweeting here and there during the ceremony.

You can also expect an assessment of sorts in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.

Oscar Predicted Winners: The Final Eight Categories / The Final Gurus of Gold / Ruimy Takes A Stab at Cannes

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE FINAL EIGHT CATEGORIES

Here's a look at where I'm at predicting what films will win Oscars on Sunday night for Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and the three Shorts categories.

My FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS for all 24 categories will be posted SUNDAY MORNING...because it's all still fluid.  The predictions below even post date some of those I have for the latest Gurus of Gold at Movie City News (see below).

As always TFF #46 films are in Bold


COSTUMES

1) Little Women
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Judy
5) Maleficent

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) 1917
2) The Irishman
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Lion King
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

SOUND MIXING

1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Ad Astra

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Once Upon a Time...
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Brotherhood
2) The Neighbors Window
3) Nefta Football Club
4) Saria
5) A Sister

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) St. Louis Superman
3) Life Overtakes Me
4) In the Absence
5) Walk Run Cha Cha

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Hair Love
2) Kitbull
3) Dcera (Daughter)
4) Sister
5) Memorable


THE FINAL GURUS OF GOLD

The last Gurus of Gold predictions for Oscar Night are up over at Movie City News.  In addition to yours truly, other Gurus this season have included: Thelma Adams, Gregory Ellwood, Mark Johnson, Dave Karger, David Poland, Steve Pond, Sasha Stone and Jeff Sneider.

According to the Gurus' collective wisdom TFF #46 films will have wins in the following categories:

Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari

There are a few categories where TFF #46 films are in the #2 spot and, at least in theory, pose the greatest chance to knock off the predicted winners.  They are:

Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story
Best International Film: Pain and Glory
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Makeup/Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari

At most, TFF #46 films could win 14 Oscars Sunday night as at least one TFF #46 film is competing in that many categories.  Categories with zero TFF #46 nominees are: Best Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Costumes, Visual Effects, Song and the three Shorts categories.

I want to give a quick shout of gratitude to Ray Pride and Movie City News for asking me back for a second season as one of the Gurus of Gold.  Hope to be back again next season.


RUIMY TAKES A STAB AT CANNES

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has posted what he terms a "Cannes Spitball" as he takes an educated guess at a number of films that seem to stand a good chance of making the lineup for the Cannes Film Fest.  Cannes runs this year from May 12-23.

as readers of this space know, the Cannes/Telluride share list is usually considerable.  If you look at the lineups of the two fests over the past ten

 years, you can definitely see the connection:

In 2019, eight films played both fests
2018-7
2017-8
2016-7
2015-6
2014-9
2013-9
2012-10
2011-5
2010-9

That's an average of 7.8 films per year that crossover.

So, thinking about what will play at Cannes and then ultimately evaluating the titles that do eventually get chosen is a good way to make some guesses about a potential TFF #47 set of film choices.

Soooo...what does Jordan have to say in his post and, ultimately, which titles does he suggest for Cannes that seem a potential pick of TFF programmers?

Here are some films from his list that, at least this far out, might be TFF possibles:

Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island
Chloe Zhao's Nomadland
Sophia Coppola's On the Rocks
Nanni Moretti's Tre Piani
Ulrich Seidel's Bose Spiele

Jordan's complete post is linked here.


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Oscar Predicted Winners: The Next Eight / BAFTA Showers 1917 with Love / Writers Guild Awards / Latest Gurus of Gold

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE NEXT EIGHT CATEGORIES

Last Thursday I posted my latest picks for The Big Eight Oscar categories.  Today "The Next Eight": International Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.

This coming Thursday I will add predictions for The Last Eight categories and then on Oscar Sunday Morning itself, I will have FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR ALL 24 CATEGORIES.

Here are today's predix with TFF #47 films in Bold

INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Parasite
2) Pain and Glory
3) Les Miserables
4) Honeyland
5) Corpus Christi


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Honeyland
3) For Sama
4) The Cave
5) The Edge of Democracy


ANIMATED FEATURE
 1) Toy Story 4
2) Klaus
3) Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) Frozen II


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) The Lighthouse
5) The Irishman


FILM EDITING

1) Parasite
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) The Irishman
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Joker


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) The Irishman


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Joker
2) 1917
3) Marriage Story
4) Little Women
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker


ORIGINAL SONG

1) I'm Gonna Love Myself Again/Rocketman
2) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
5) I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4


BAFTA SHOWERS 1917 WITH LOVE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their winners on last night and Sam Mendes' 1917 had a very good evening winning in seven categories (out of nine nominations).

TFF #47 films earned five BAFTAs as you will see highlighted and bolded below.

Here is how the BAFTAs shook out in the feature film categories:

Best Film: 1917
Best British Film: 1917
Best British Debut: Mark Jenkin/Bait
Film Not in the English Language: Parasite
Documentary: For Sama
Animated Film: Klaus
Director: Sam Mendes/1917
Original Screenplay: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Original Score: Joker
Casting: Joker
Cinematography: 1917
Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Production Design: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Makeup and Hair: Bombshell
Sound: 1917
Special Visual Effects: 1917


Complete coverage of the BAFTAs is linked here from Indiewire.



WRITERS GUILD AWARDS

The Writers Guild of America named the best in writing for film and television in a ceremony on Saturday night.  TFF #47's Parasite, written by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won, was named the Best Original screenplay for 2019.  It's the first time in the guilds history that a script for a film in a language other than English has been named the recipient of the WGA award.

Meanwhile, the Adapted Screenplay award went to Taika Waititi for penning the adaptation of Caging Skies into Jojo Rabbit.

Both films' scripts are Oscar nominated. 

The complete Writers Guild winners list for film and television is linked here from Indiewire.



LATEST GURUS OF GOLD FOR FEATURE FILM OSCAR CATEGORIES

We Gurus have our latest round of collective predictions up for all 21 feature film categories over at Movie City News.  You can find that linked here.

If we Gurus are correct, at this point we are guessing that TFF #47 films win Oscars as follows:

Parasite (2): Best International Film, Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (2): Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Judy (1): Best Actress: Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story (1): Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern

The rest of the 21 feature categories are currently predicted to go like this:

1917 (3): Picture, Director, Cinematography
Once Upon a Time (3): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design
Joker (2): Actor, Original Score
Little Women (2): Adapted Screenplay, Costumes
American Factory: Documentary
Toy Story 4: Animated
Bombshell: Makeup/Hair
Avengers: Endgame: Visual Effects
Rocketman: Song


Couple of quick notes:  It feels to me like Parasite is making a late surge for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.  Also seeming to be gathering some heat is Jojo Rabbit.

The latest complete Gurus of Gold is linked here.


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NBR Happens Tomorrow / Oscar Predictions Update: Acting Categories / Film Makers Featured

NBR HAPPENS TOMORROW

The national Board of Review drops its list of best films of 2019 tomorrow.  Last year its choice for Best Film, Green Book, went on to Oscar glory winning the Best Picture Oscar.

Expect the organization to announce winners of a number of individual awards in addition to Best Film such as Best Direction, Leading and Supporting performances, adapted and original screenplays and others.  In addition expect a 10 Best list, a Ten Best Independent Films list, a Five Best Documentaries list and a Five Best Foreign Film list.

TFF #46 films that could make their way onto the NBR's various lists include:

The Aeronauts
Beanpole
The Climb
Diego Maradona
Ford v Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Judy
The Kingmaker
Marriage Story
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Report
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Varda by Agnes
Waves

I'll have all the NBR/TFF breakdown on Thursday edition of MTFB.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ACTING

Here's my latest batch of Oscar updates for the acting category nominations.  I last posted acting predictions on Nov. 21.  TFF #46 performances are Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Awkwafina/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...(4)
5) Robert DeNiro/The Irishman (-)
6) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)

Other possibles: George MacKay/1917, Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Paul Walter Hauser/Richard Jewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (6)
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell (-)
6) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)

Other possibles: Florence Pugh/Little Women, DaVine Joy Randolph/Dolemite Is My Name, Annette Bening/The Report, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (3)
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
6) Sam Rockwell/Richard Jewell (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Shia LaBeouf/Honey Boy, Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy

Notes: The buzz surrounding Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell (releasing Dec. 13) is lifting Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell and Paul Walter Hauser into the acting conversations.   It will be interesting to see if that sustains over the next couple of weeks.

The same is true for young and virtually unknown George MacKay for his work in 1917.  The Sam Mendes film has huge buzz after some early screenings and has skyrocketed up a number of the charts from the Oscar experts for Best Picture.  Currently Awards Circuit has it at #1.   Awards Daily has it at #1 and Awards Watch has it at #4.


FILM MAKERS FEATURED

Annie Howard talks to The Two Popes Screen writer Anthony McCarten for The Hollywood Reporter here.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Adam Sandler and The Safdie Brothers about Uncut Gems here.

Joey Moser of Awards Daily talks with composer David Wingo about the music of Motherless Brooklyn.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predicitons: Updates and First Predix:Costumes, Makeup, Song / Gurus of Gold Return / Oscar History and TFF Continues

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SOME UPDATES AND FIRST PREDICTIONS

I'm updating the acting categories and providing first guesses in the Costume, Makeup/Hair and Original Song categories.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 14th.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Lupita Nyong'o/Us

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency


BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time... (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)
6) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (4)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)
6) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, DaVine Joy Randolph/My Name Is Dolemite


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (5)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (4)
6) Alan Alda/Marriage Story (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Tracy Letts/Ford v Ferrari


And now for the first time predictions for Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...
2) Dolemite Is My Name
3) Little Women
4) Rocketman
5) Downton Abbey
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Harriet, The Irishman, Judy


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Rocketman
4) Joker
5) Judy
6) The Two Popes

Other possibles: The Irishman, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) Stand Up/Harriet
3) Beautiful Ghosts/Cats
4) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
5) Spirit/The Lion King
6) Speechless/Aladdin

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough



AND THE GURUS RETURN (AND I GET TO BE ONE AGAIN)

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold, a collective of Oscar "experts" who have agreed to have our predictions accumulated and added together for a consensus set of predictions, has returned for this Oscar season.

MCN's Ray Pride has added us all together and the focus for this first wave of predictions is on Best Picture and the acting races.

The links are as follows:

Gurus on Best Picture

Gurus on the acting races

Give them a gander.

I am honored to be included with Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit, Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com, Dave Karger/TCM, IMDb, Peter Howell/The Toronto Star and a bunch of others.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF CONTINUES

The project continues today with a look back at the same three categories that I provided my first predictions for above: Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

BEST COSTUMES

1985- The Journey of Natty Gann
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac-WINNER
1993- The Piano
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Dragon Hidden Tiger, Quills
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2005- Walk the Line
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Bright Star, Before Coco Chanel
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Invisible Woman
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- The Favourite


Overall 20 nominations and one win.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Ed Wood-WINNER
2000- Shadow of the Vampire
2002- Frida-WINNER
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The Way Back
2011- Albert Nobbs
2014- Foxcatcher
2017- Darkest Hour-WINNER
2018- Border

Overall 10 nominations and four wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- Frida
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2008- Slumdog Millionaire (x2)- WINNER
2010- 127 Hours
2016- La La Land (x2)-WINNER

Overall eight nominations and two wins.


That's Thursday.


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