NBR Happens Tomorrow / Oscar Predictions Update: Acting Categories / Film Makers Featured

NBR HAPPENS TOMORROW

The national Board of Review drops its list of best films of 2019 tomorrow.  Last year its choice for Best Film, Green Book, went on to Oscar glory winning the Best Picture Oscar.

Expect the organization to announce winners of a number of individual awards in addition to Best Film such as Best Direction, Leading and Supporting performances, adapted and original screenplays and others.  In addition expect a 10 Best list, a Ten Best Independent Films list, a Five Best Documentaries list and a Five Best Foreign Film list.

TFF #46 films that could make their way onto the NBR's various lists include:

The Aeronauts
Beanpole
The Climb
Diego Maradona
Ford v Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Judy
The Kingmaker
Marriage Story
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Report
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Varda by Agnes
Waves

I'll have all the NBR/TFF breakdown on Thursday edition of MTFB.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ACTING

Here's my latest batch of Oscar updates for the acting category nominations.  I last posted acting predictions on Nov. 21.  TFF #46 performances are Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Awkwafina/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...(4)
5) Robert DeNiro/The Irishman (-)
6) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)

Other possibles: George MacKay/1917, Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Paul Walter Hauser/Richard Jewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (6)
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell (-)
6) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)

Other possibles: Florence Pugh/Little Women, DaVine Joy Randolph/Dolemite Is My Name, Annette Bening/The Report, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (3)
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
6) Sam Rockwell/Richard Jewell (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Shia LaBeouf/Honey Boy, Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy

Notes: The buzz surrounding Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell (releasing Dec. 13) is lifting Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell and Paul Walter Hauser into the acting conversations.   It will be interesting to see if that sustains over the next couple of weeks.

The same is true for young and virtually unknown George MacKay for his work in 1917.  The Sam Mendes film has huge buzz after some early screenings and has skyrocketed up a number of the charts from the Oscar experts for Best Picture.  Currently Awards Circuit has it at #1.   Awards Daily has it at #1 and Awards Watch has it at #4.


FILM MAKERS FEATURED

Annie Howard talks to The Two Popes Screen writer Anthony McCarten for The Hollywood Reporter here.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Adam Sandler and The Safdie Brothers about Uncut Gems here.

Joey Moser of Awards Daily talks with composer David Wingo about the music of Motherless Brooklyn.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Expand / So Much Content...Interviews and Profiles: The Report, Waves, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story, Diego Maradona, Uncut Gems, Tell Me Who I Am, Parasite and Pain and Glory / Oscar History and TFF: Documentary and Animated Feature

OSCAR PREDICTIONS EXPAND

With Oscar nominations announced in just two months (Jan. 13th), I'm expanding nomination predictions beginning with today's post.

I have the categories broken into groups so that over the course of each couple of weeks, I'll be updating each of the 21 feature categories.  I'll add the three Shorts categories as we approach nomination morning in January.

Today I'll be updating all four of the acting categories as well as making first attempts for nomination predictions for Documentary, Animated Feature and Film Editing.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 11th for Best Actress and Actor.  Supporting Actress and Actor were last updated on Oct. 21 and 24 respectively.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.



BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Woman (4)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (5)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (-)

Other possibles: Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (4)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (-)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
4) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
5) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Shia Labeouf/Honey Boy

And now for first predictions in three categories:

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) One Child Nation
4) Sea of Shadows
5) The Cave

Other possibles: Knock Down the House, Honeyland, The Kingmaker, The Biggest Little Farm(*TFF #45)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) The Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) How to Train Your Dragon/Hidden World

Other possibles: Klaus, Abominable, Funan

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time in ... Hollywood
4) 1917
5) Parasite

Other possibles: Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes

MTFB's next post will include updates for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplays and first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.


SO MUCH CONTENT...INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

A blizzard of interviews and profiles have appeared over the last few days regarding films that played at TFF #46.  I've tried to capture many of them to connect them for you.  Here's the retrospective:


The Report's writer/director Scott Z. Burns talks to Brian Welk for The Wrap

The Reports' Annette Bening talks to Jessica Zack for The San Francisco Chronicle's Datebook

Waves' writer director Trey Edward Shults talks to Jacqueline Coley for Rotten Tomatoes

Waves' cast members talk to Mackenzie Nichols for Variety

Motherless Brooklyn director and screen writer Edward Norton talks to Anne Thompson for Indiewire

Ford v Ferrari director James Mangold talks to Anthony D'Alessandro for Deadline

Mangold also talks to John Horn for The Frame

Mangold talks to Anne Thompson of Indiewire

Marriage Story's Alan Alda talks to Eric Kohn for Indiewire

Marriage Story's Laura Dern talks to Erin Nyren for Variety

Diego Maradona director Asif Kapadia talks to Annie Howard for The Hollywood Reporter

Uncut Gems' Adam Sandler talks to Latesha Harris for Variety

Twins Alex and Marcus Lewis, the focus of the doc Tell Me Who I Am,  talk to Matthew Carey for Deadline

Parasite's writer/director Bong Joon-ho talks to Patrick Bzeski for The Hollywood Reporter

Parasite actors Park So-dam and Choi Woo-shik talk to Demi Kampakis for The Film Stage

Pain and Glory actor Antonio Banderas talks to Latesha Harris for Variety




OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURE

The project continues documenting the history of Oscar nominees and the Telluride Film Festival with a look at Documentary Feature and Animated Feature nominees from the fest through the years.


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1981- Eight Minutes to Midnight
1983- Seeing Red
1984- The Times of Harvey Milk-WINNER
1989- Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren
1991- Wild by Law
1996- Ayn Rand: A Sense of Life
2002- Bowling for Columbine-WINNER
2003- The Fog of War-WINNER
2007- Encounters at the End of the World
2010- Inside Job-WINNER
2011- Pina
2012- The Gatekeepers
2013- The Missing Picture, The Act of Killing
2014- Salt of the Earth
2015- The Look of Silence, Winter on Fire
2016- Fires at Sea
2017- Faces Places
2018- Free Solo-WINNER

Overall 20 nominations and five wins.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

2002- Spirited Away-WINNER
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2007- Persepolis
2010- Chico and Rita, The Illusionist
2013- The Wind Rises
2015- Anomalisa
2017- Loving Vincent

Overall eight nominations and one win.


That's Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Actor / Oscar History and TFF: Best Supporting Actress / TFF Docs and Critic's Choice / New Teaser for Ford v. Ferrari

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

I last checked in on the Best Actor Oscar race on Sept. 19th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (4)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (2)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)

Possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Comment: Recency helps.  Buzz for Joaquin Phoenix's performance spiked with the film's release two weeks ago and he jumped from #4 to #2.  Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio, whose film opened in July.  Robert DeNiro has also benefited from The Irishman finally being in front of some eyes with its acting as the opening night film for the New York Film Fest.

Truth is that Banderas, DeNiro and Murphy are in a virtual tie for that fifth spot.

I'll update Best director predictions on Monday.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Supporting Actress category and the Telluride Film Festival:

1987-Ann Sothern/The Whales of August
1989- Brenda Fricker/My Left Foot-WINNER
1991- Diane Ladd/Rambling Rose
1993- Anna Paquin/The Piano-WINNER
1994- Dianne Wiest/Bullets Over Broadway, Jennifer Tilly/Bullets Over Broadway
1996- Jean-Marie Baptiste/Secrets and Lies
2000- Samantha Morton/Sweet and Lowdown
2004- Laura Linney/Kinsey
2005- Michelle Williams/Brokeback Mountain, Catherine Keener/Capote
2006- Adriana Barraza/Babel, Rinko Kikuchi/Babel
2007-  Cate Blanchett/I'm Not There
2008- Taraji P. Henson/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga/Up in the Air
2010- Helena Bonham Carter/The King's Speech
2011- Berenice Bejo/The Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
2013- Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave-WINNER, June Squibb/Nebraska
2014- Emma Stone/Birdman, Laura Dern/Wild, Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
2015- Rachel McAdams/Spotlight, Rooney Mara/Carol, Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2016- Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea, Naomie Harris/Moonlight
2017- Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2018- Emma Stone/The Favourite, Rachel Weisz-The Favourite, Marina de Tavira/Roma


Overall 35 nominations and three wins: Brenda Fricker/My Left Foot-1989, Anna Paquin/The Piano-1993, Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave-2013.


TFF DOCS AND THE CRITIC'S CHOICE

The Biggest Little Farm, which was featured last year at TFF #45 led all documentaries in total nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association for their doc awards with a total of seven nominations including Best Documentary Feature.

This year's TFF docs were represented by The Kingmaker which earned four nominations.

The BFCA also announced that they would recognize Michael Apted's Up series of docs.  His latest entry in that series- 63 Up- was also featured this year at TFF #46.

The complete rundown is linked here from Indiewire.

The BFCA will present their awards for documentaries on Nov. 10th.


NEW TEASER FOR FORD V. FERRARI

Twentieth Century Fox gave us a new teaser for the film this week.  Check it here from YouTube:

Ford v. Ferrari opens on Nov. 15th.



That's today's MTFB.  More Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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MTFB's First Oscar Stab for 2019 / TFF Oscar History Part Five-2000-2004 / All in One Place / Most Viewed of TFF #46 / Metacritic After T-ride, Venice and TIFF

MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR STAB FOR 2019

It's that time of year.  The festival has concluded, the Pros, People and their Composite ratings have been gathered calculated and reported.  The next TFF is 11 1/2 months away and Oscar season is upon us.

As many of you know, I've been asked to Guru the Oscars again this year for Movie City News' Gurus of Gold so expect to see links and references to that website as we head to Oscar night, Feb. 9, 2020.

So we turn the focus of this space from puzzling out and speculating about the Telluride lineup to puzzling out and speculating how that lineup figures into the race for Oscar glory.  

I'm opening this year's Oscar guessing game with my first prediction for nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Actor.  Films from TFF #46 are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Irishman

2) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3) Marriage Story

4) Ford v. Ferrari

5) Parasite

6) 1917

7) JoJo Rabbit

8) The Farewell

9) The Two Popes

10) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Others: Little Women, Just Mercy, Joker, Waves, Judy, Ad Astra

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy

2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

3) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet

4) Awkwafina/The Farewell

5) Alfre Woodard/Clemency

Others: Saoirse Ronan/Little Women, Lupita N'yongo/Us, Helen Mirren/The Good Liar

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes

4) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory

Others; Michael B. Jordan/Just Mercy, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Ian McKellan/The Good Liar

Next week I'll take a crack at the Supporting Acting categories and Best Director.

TFF OSCAR HISTORY PART FIVE-2000-2004

Here's the continuation of my project to chart every Oscar nominee in the 21 feature categories that played at the Telluride Film Festival since the first TFF in 1974.

So today we move to 2000-2004.  The number of nominations and wins are indicated in parentheses for each year.

2000 (17/4)

Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon- Foreign Language-WON, Original Score-WON, Cinematography-WON, Art/Set Direction-WON, Picture, Director-Ang Lee, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Costumes, Song

Quills- Actor-Geoffrey Rush, Costumes, Art/Set Direction

Sweet and Lowdown- Actor-Sean Penn, Supporting Actress-Samantha Morton

Shadow of the Vampire- Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe, Makeup


2001 (7/1)

Amelie- Foreign Language, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art/Set Direction, Sound

Mulholland Drive- Director- David Lynch

No Man's Land- Foreign Language- WON


2002 (13/4)

Frida- Score-WON, Makeup-WON, Actress- Salma Hayek, Song

City of God- Director-Fernando Meirelles, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography

Talk to Her- Original Screenplay-WON, Director- Pedro Almodovar

Spirited Away- Animated -WON

Bowling for Columbine- Documentary- WON

The Man Without a Past- Foreign Language


2003 (12/3)

The Barbarian Invasions- Foreign Language-WON, Original Screenplay

The Fog of War-Documentary-WON

Lost in Translation- Original Screenplay-WON, Picture, Director-Sophia Coppola, Actor-Bill Murray
Girl with a Pearl Earring- Costume, Cinematography, Art/Set Direction

The Triplets of Belleville- Animated, Song


2004 (3)

Being Julia- Actress-Annette Bening

The House of Flying Daggers- Cinematography

Kinsey- Supporting Actress-Laura Linney


ALL IN ONE PLACE

As a coda to this year's ratings averages from The People, The Professionals and The Composite...I have gathered them all here in one re-post as well as the current All Time Top Ten for each categorization as well:

THE PROFESSIONALS:

1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v. Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)

TOP TEN SINCE 2012:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)

THE PEOPLE:

1) The Two Popes (4.51)
2) Parasite (4.36)
3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)
4) Marriage Story (4.14)
5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)
5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)
7) Judy (3.80)
8) The Aeronauts (3.67)
9) The Report (3.66)
10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)
11) Lyrebird (3.62)
12) Waves (3.61)
13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)
14) Uncut Gems (3.22)
15) The Climb (3.07)
16) First Cow (3.02)

TOP TEN SINCE 2012

1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)
2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture
3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture
4) The Attack (4.70) (12)
5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)
6) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture
7) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)
8) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture
8) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture
10) Birdman (4.46) (14) Won Best Picture


THE COMPOSITE

1) Parasite (9.11) [2/1]
2) The Two Popes (8.93) [1/2]
3) Marriage Story (8.54) [4/3]
4) Ford v. Ferrari (8.46) [3/7]
5) A Hidden Life (8.01) [5/5]
6) Waves (7.90) [12/4]
7) Pain and Glory (7.63) [5/9]
8) The Report (7.53) [9/8]
9) Motherless Brooklyn (7.22) [10/11]
10) Uncut Gems (7.00) [14/10]
11) Judy (6.93) [7/13]
12) The Aeronauts (6.75) [8/14]
13) The Climb (6.57) [15/12]


TOP TEN SINCE 2012

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 Tie (Won Best Picture)
1) Argo (9.25) 2012 Tie (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) The Two Popes (8.93) 2019
10) La La Land (8.91) 2016 (Won Best Director)


MOST VIEWED OF TFF #46

Another metric of buzz and popularity that I just started looking at last year is the number of respondents to my Peoples poll that went to each film.  By that measure, Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story won the day.  Here are the top ten for this year expressed for each film as a percentage of the total number of respondents.

1) Marriage Story 71.43%
2) Motherless Brooklyn 58.57%
3) Uncut Gems 57.14%
4) Ford v. Ferrari 55.71%
5) Parasite 52.86%
6) Judy 50.00%
6) Waves 50.00%
8) The Report 48.57%
9) Lyrebird 47.14%
10) The Two Popes 44.29 %



METACRITIC AFTER TELLURIDE, VENICE AND TORONTO

Metacritic, the aggregate critic website, posted yesterday the composite critical ratings for several of the films that played at one of the triumvirate of film festivals just concluded.  I took the opportunity to cull those aggregate ratings for films that played at Telluride and here's what they reported:

1) Marriage Story 95 (actually, the top aggregate score for any film on the list from any of the three fests)
2) Uncut Gems 88
3) The Two Popes 83
4) Waves 81
5) The Kingmaker 77
6) First Cow 76
7) The Aeronauts 73
8) Ford v. Ferrari 71
9) Judy and The Assistant 65
11) Motherless Brooklyn 62


My guess as to the absence of films such as Parasite, The Report, Pain and Glory and others is that they were likely excluded having screened earlier at either Cannes or Sundance.

The complete article from Metacritic is linked here.


That's the MTFB for this Thursday.  More here on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

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New Clips from The Man Who Killed Don Quixote

NEW CLIPS FROM THE MAN WHO KILLED DON QUIXOTE

CLIP #1

CLIP #2

CLIP #3

Clips via YouTube