Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
We're staring down the last six days before the Oscars on Sunday night. The last of the Guilds have spoken as well as the Independent Spirit Awards. Oscar voting ends tomorrow. It's almost time people.
Here are the next to last predictions for the categories of International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song and Makeup/Hair. Final predictions for all 23 categories will go up here on Sunday morning.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)
2) Argentina 1985 (2)
3) Close (3)
4) EO (4)
5) The Quiet Girl (5)
ANIMANTED FEATURE
1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)
2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)
3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)
4) Turning Red (4)
5) The Sea Beast (5)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) Navalny (2)
2) Fire of Love (1)
3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (3)
4) All That Breathes (4)
5) The House of Splinters (5)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Elvis (1)
2) Babylon (2)
3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)
4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)
5) The Fabelmans (5)
COSTUME DESIGN
1) Elvis (1)
2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)
3) Babylon (3)
4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)
5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Elvis (1)
2) The Whale (2)
3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)
4) The Batman (3)
5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)
WRITER'S GUILD
Sarah Polley won Best Adapted Screenplay at the WGA as well as the USC Scripter Award (which focuses exclusively on Adapted screenplays) this past weekend. That's a good indicator that the TFF #49 film is in prime position to pick up that Oscar on Sunday. There had been a sense that All Quiet on the Western Front might have the inside track to the Oscar. That sentiment seems quelled now with this weekend's double win for Polley.
INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS
TFF #49 was represented in the list of Independent Spirit Awards on Saturday by wins for:
Best Documentary: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Best Cinemtography: TAR
Robert Altman Award: Women Talking
Best First Feature: Aftersun
Everything Everywhere All at Once was the big winner of the evening with wins for Best Feature, Direction, Actress (Yeoh), Supporting Actor (Quan), Breakthrough Performance (Hsu), Screenplay and Editing.
OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE NEXT EIGHT CATEGORIES
Last Thursday I posted my latest picks for The Big Eight Oscar categories. Today "The Next Eight": International Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.
This coming Thursday I will add predictions for The Last Eight categories and then on Oscar Sunday Morning itself, I will have FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR ALL 24 CATEGORIES.
Here are today's predix with TFF #47 films in Bold
INTERNATIONAL FILM
1) Parasite 2) Pain and Glory
3) Les Miserables
4) Honeyland
5) Corpus Christi
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) American Factory
2) Honeyland
3) For Sama
4) The Cave
5) The Edge of Democracy
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Toy Story 4
2) Klaus
3) Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) Frozen II
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) The Lighthouse
5) The Irishman
FILM EDITING
1) Parasite 2) Ford v Ferrari
3) The Irishman
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Joker
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) 1917 2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) The Irishman
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Joker
2) 1917 3) Marriage Story
4) Little Women
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ORIGINAL SONG
1) I'm Gonna Love Myself Again/Rocketman
2) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
5) I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4
BAFTA SHOWERS 1917 WITH LOVE
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their winners on last night and Sam Mendes' 1917 had a very good evening winning in seven categories (out of nine nominations).
TFF #47 films earned five BAFTAs as you will see highlighted and bolded below.
Here is how the BAFTAs shook out in the feature film categories:
Best Film: 1917
Best British Film: 1917
Best British Debut: Mark Jenkin/Bait Film Not in the English Language: Parasite
Documentary: For Sama
Animated Film: Klaus
Director: Sam Mendes/1917 Original Screenplay: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Original Score: Joker
Casting: Joker
Cinematography: 1917 Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Production Design: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Makeup and Hair: Bombshell
Sound: 1917
Special Visual Effects: 1917
The Writers Guild of America named the best in writing for film and television in a ceremony on Saturday night. TFF #47's Parasite, written by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won, was named the Best Original screenplay for 2019. It's the first time in the guilds history that a script for a film in a language other than English has been named the recipient of the WGA award.
Meanwhile, the Adapted Screenplay award went to Taika Waititi for penning the adaptation of Caging Skies into Jojo Rabbit.
LATEST GURUS OF GOLD FOR FEATURE FILM OSCAR CATEGORIES
We Gurus have our latest round of collective predictions up for all 21 feature film categories over at Movie City News. You can find that linked here.
If we Gurus are correct, at this point we are guessing that TFF #47 films win Oscars as follows:
Parasite (2): Best International Film, Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (2): Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Judy (1): Best Actress: Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story (1): Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
The rest of the 21 feature categories are currently predicted to go like this:
1917 (3): Picture, Director, Cinematography
Once Upon a Time (3): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design
Joker (2): Actor, Original Score
Little Women (2): Adapted Screenplay, Costumes
American Factory: Documentary
Toy Story 4: Animated
Bombshell: Makeup/Hair
Avengers: Endgame: Visual Effects
Rocketman: Song
Couple of quick notes: It feels to me like Parasite is making a late surge for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay. Also seeming to be gathering some heat is Jojo Rabbit.
I wrote on Thursday that we'd have a busy Saturday night with guild awards being announced from Directors, Cinematographers, the Cinema Audio Society, the USC Scripter Award for adapted screenplay and the Annie Awards. TFF #46 was represented in the glut of news with Ford v Ferrari's win from the film's design from the Cinema Audio Society.
Other winners:
DGA: Sam Mendes/1917
USC Scripter: Greta Gerwig/Little Women
ASC (cinematography): Roger Deakins/1917
Annie: Klaus
The DGA win for Mendes has shifted the sentiment to 1917 to be the favorite for Mendes to win the Best Director Oscar and the film to win Best Picture. A number of number pros pointed out, however, that three of the last four years the DGA winner won the directing Oscar but the film did not win Best Picture:
2015: Alejandro Inarritu wins DGA and Oscar for The Revenant. Best Pic: Spotlight
2016: Damian Chazelle wins DGA and Oscar for La La Land. Best Pic: Moonlight
2017: Guillermo Del Toro wins DGA and Oscar and Shape of Water wins Best Pic.
2018: Alfonso Cuaron wins DGA and Oscar for Roma. Green Book wins Best Pic.
So the recent past suggests that 1917 winning Best Picture isn't a lock. Lots of folks are saying that perhaps Parasite pulls off the surprise a la Moonlight. My guess is that, should anything besides 1917 wins that it will actually be Tarantino's Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.
The other results from Saturday's awards suggest good Oscar news for Gerwig and Deakins. The Annie award for Netflix's Klaus may be less predictive. I'm still expecting Toy Story 4 to take the Oscar statue in two weeks.
THE LAST BIG DOMINO...
The last big precursor is the Writers Guild Awards that will announced Saturday. Nominees are:
WGA Adapted Screenplay nominees:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Oscar nominees differ with the inclusion of The Two Popes and exclusion of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
WGA Original Screenplay nominees:
1917
Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Parasite
The Oscar nominees differ with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood in and Booksmart out.
MORE ANTICIPATION
I'm continuing to look at the various lists of "most anticipated" films for this and that source as I'm at the very start of trying to get a bead on which films might be in line for consideration of inclusion at TFF #47.
Today I'm looking at the list of 68 films from Vulture. Those films are listed by announced release date so it's easy to look at their list beginning with the films listed for September or later as well as films that are still listed with release dates to be announced.
That said, here's what Vulture is looking forward to that feels like a TFF #47 possible:
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman)
Mank (David Fincher)
Dune (Denis Villenueve)
News of the World (Paul Greengrass)
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen Love)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
On the Rocks (Sophia Coppola)
Got the news late last night that the legendary Buck Henry had died of a heart attack at the age of 89. Henry had an extensive relationship with the Telluride Film Festival going all the way back to appearing as a guest of the fest at TFF #2 in 1975 according to the best info I can come up with. Henry also Guest Directed in 2004 and was part of the multiple Guest Director group for TFF 's 40th Anniversary in 2013. My records also indicate that Henry was at the fest in 2007 as well.
Henry was probably best known as the co-writer of Mike Nichols classic The Graduate, a film that would be on Top Ten list of all-timers. Henry was a two time Oscar nominee. The first came for the screenplay of The Graduate the other came as co-director of Heaven Can Wait with Warren Beatty.
He also wrote or co-wrote the screenplays for Catch-22, The Owl and the Pussycat, What's Up Doc?, The Day of the Dolphin and To Die For. He was also the co-creator, along with Mel Brooks, of the 1960's comedy Get Smart.
Henry was also an early and often host for Saturday Night Live having reportedly hosted 10 times.
I got to meet Henry in 2013 in Telluride and express my thanks for his incredible career of providing thought provoking entertainment and a bunch of laughter. That's the photo you see above.
Maybe the best thing that's happened at TFF over the years that I've been going has been opportunities like that- a chance to thank people for what they've meant in your life that you're never going to see at any other moment. I don't do it often because I don't want to annoy- but my admiration for Buck was such that I knew that I'd kick myself if I didn't just tell the man "Thank you".
And thanks again Buck!
SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!!
I'll have the MTFB Final Oscar nomination predictions for this year posted at 6pm EST on Sunday, Jan. 12th
As of this morning, using the latest projections I have for each of the 21 feature categories- which will be updated for Sunday and will mean that there will be changes between now and then- here are the predicted nominee leaders:
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood-12 (and the only film in double digits)
The Irishman-9
1917-8 Marriage Story-8
Joker-7 Parasite-6 Ford v Ferrari-5 The Two Popes-4
Bombshell-4
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-4
Rocketman-4
Jojo Rabbit-3
All others 2 or fewer.
Other TFF #46 films: Pain and Glory-2 Judy-2 Beanpole-1
Total TFF #46 nominations predicted- 28-but that will also likely change with Sunday's final predictions.
GUILDS: WRITERS, DIRECTORS, PRODUCERS AND BAFTA
Since my last post we've seen a ton of precursors name names for 2019 giving us new information to parse about Oscar nomination possibilities. Let's run that down from the perspective of TFF #46 films.
WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) NOMINEES
The Writers Guild announced their nominations for screen writing on Monday> TFF #46 films which were nominated were: Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story and Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won's Parasite in the Original Screenplay category. No TFF #46 films were named as nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Other Original Script nominees were for: 1917, Booksmart and Knives Out. Adapted script nominees included: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker and Little Women.
DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) NOMINEES
Parasite's Bong Joon-ho was the only TFF #46 director named by the DGA for their Director of the Year prize. Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, and Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes all failed to be nominated.
The other four DGA nominees are Sam Mendes/1917, Martin Scorsese/The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit.
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA) NOMINEES
The ten films named as potential winners of the PGA Award for Best Picture included three TFF #46 films: Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story and Parasite.
The other seven PGA nominees are: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.
Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily says that this tells that these results mean that the 2019 Best Picture Oscar winner is on this list of five films: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Parasite.
That means that Bong Joon-ho's Parasite now stands as the best bet for re-starting Telluride's trend for having screened the Best Picture winner is Parasite.
BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS (BAFTA)
The British version of The Oscars named their nominees on Tuesday and TFF #46 films snagged 23 nominations. Here are the Telluride films that were nominated:
Marriage Story had five: Scarlett Johansson/Best Actress, Adam Driver/Best Actor, Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress, Noah Baumbach/Best Original Screenplay and Best Casting.
The Two Popes had five: Best British Film, Jonathan Pryce/Best Actor, Anthony Hopkins/Best Supporting Actor, Anthony McCarten/Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Casting.
Parasite had four: Best Film, Bong Joon-ho/Best Director, Bong and Jin Han Won/Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Not in the English Language.
Le Mans 66 (that's Ford v Ferrari to you and me) had three: Best Editing, Best Cinematography and Best Sound.
Judy had three: Renee Zellweger/Best Actress, Best Costumes and Best Makeup/Hair.
Single nominations came for:
Pain and Glory: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Diego Maradona: Best Documentary.
Joker lead all films with 11 nominations followed closely by Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and The Irishman with 10 nominations apiece.
OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED
Here's my latest calls on the probable Oscar nominees in the categories of Costumes, Makeup and Hair and Production Design. TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.
COSTUMES (Last predicted on Dec. 19th)
1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (3)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (2)
4) Downton Abbey (5)
5) Rocketman (4)
6) 1917 (-)
Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit
MAKEUP/HAIR (last updated Dec. 19th)
1) Bombshell (1) 2) Judy (4)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (2)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (-)
Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
PRODUCTION DESIGN (last updated Dec. 12th)
1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3) 4) Parasite (6)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (-)
Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra
MTFB IN OTHER PLACES
The latest Gurus of Gold is up at Movie City News. It's got the latest Oscar predix for Best Picture as well as a specialty poll. We were asked to give 3-5 "Unlikely Underdogs" a shout out. Among mine were an endorsement for Tracy Letts as as Best Supporting Actor for Ford v Ferrari and, in the same category, Kevin Garnett in Uncut Gems.
Meanwhile, I also have a post up over at The Script Lab. I wrote about the screenplays both adapted and original that are the most likely to be nominated next Monday morning. I name a dozen for each category and include a small rundown about the film/screenplay/writers as well as providing my latest ranking of which scripts will be nominated.
Since Monday's post a number of the guilds that make up workers in the film world have named their nominees for excellence in their areas of expertise. Here's a note about each of those beginning with the Director's Guild of America (DGA).
The DGA nominees included these TFF #45 films:
On Monday the DGA named their documentary nominees which included Elizabeth Chai Vasarheyli and Jimmy Chin for Free Solo.
The Writers Guild nominees included from Telluride:
Roma for Original Screenplay and Can You Forgive Me? for Adapted Screenplay.
Others nominated for Original Screenplay included: Eighth Grade, Green Book, A Quiet Place and Vice. Others nominated for Adapted Screenplay are: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk and A Star Is Born.
The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) named four TFF #45 films for their award for 2018: Roma, Cold War, The Favourite and First Man. The other nominee was A Star Is Born.
Additionally, Girl and TFF #44 film The Rider were named for the ASC Spotlight Award
The Art Directors Guild (ADG) named a number of TFF films for consideration for their awards in the Period Film Category TFF nominated films were: First Man, The Favourite and Roma.
Early Wednesday morning the British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their film nominees for 2018. TFF #45 hit The Favourite led the field with 12 nominations. Roma and First Man each had seven. Other TFF #45 films also made the grade for nominations. Here's the BAFTA/TFF #45 list:
The Favourite (12): Best Film, Best British Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume, Makeup/Hair.
Roma (7): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design.
First Man (7): Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.
Cold War (4): Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress.
And four TFF #45 films that earned a single BAFTA nomination:
Dogman: Best Film Not in the English Language
Shoplifters: Best Film Not in the English Language
Free Solos: Best Documentary
The Field: Best British Short Film
TFF #45 films earned 37 BAFTA nominations in total.
Writing awards were the name of the game over the weekend as The Writers Guild of America named their best screenplays of the year. Last Night the WGA named Get Out as Best Original Screenplay and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name as Best Adapted Screenplay.
The awards probably signal the Oscar winners in each category and also may portend which film takes home the Best Picture prize on Mar. 4th. as many Oscarologists believe that the win gives Get Out a boost with Oscar voting not set to get under way for another week.
Ivory also won the USC Scripter prize for adapted screenwriting for Call Me By Your Name.
With the WGA and Scripter awards announced that leaves only next week's BAFTA awards as the final precursor/harbinger for this Oscar season. Oscar final voting will open Feb. 20th and closes a week later.
The Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Saturday, Mar. 3rd with the Oscar ceremony to occur the following night.
Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water is right in the thick of the Oscar Best Picture race with the most nominations of any film (13). It is considered by serious Oscar watchers as a very real threat to take home the big prize. As such, Del Toro has been very accessible to media these past few months since Telluride and that has included a recent sit down with The Wrap.
The video is just shy of 30 minutes as Del Toro echoes many of the themes and ideas that audiences hear in T-ride just over five months ago.
One other quick note about Del Toro. We know that he will not be in Telluride for TFF #45 as we discovered overnight that he has been named to preside over the Venice Film Fest jury. I could have seen him back over Labor Day in support of Alfonso Cuaron's Roma much like Alejandro Inarritu was in T-ride last year for Del Toro's film.
Roma is rumored to be a Cannes selection and it wouldn't be a shock to me to see it appear on the TFF #45 lineup.
That's your truncated MTFB for this Monday. More on Thursday.
Here are the winners from last night's Golden Globe awards with films from TFF #44 in Bold.
Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: In the Fade Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Takeaways: The HFPA really liked Three Billboards as it led all films with four wins. The Shape of Water and Lady Bird were the other two films that had multiple wins with two each. TFF#44 films scored 5 wins on the night.
What's it mean for Oscar? Three Billboards is maybe a more serious player than I thought. Otherwise, despite the fact that Oscar voting is going on right now, I'm not sure the results from last night will make a lot of difference.
PRODUCERS AND WRITERS GUILDS NOMINATE
Both the PGA (Producers Guild of America) and the WGA (Writers Guild of America) announced the nominees for their end of the year awards this week adding fuel to some Oscar fires and potentially signaling weakness for others.
The PGA announced 11 films as finalists for their award. That's the first time that has happened as a tie in voting created an 11th position for the nominations. PGA finalists are:
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Molly's Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman
The announcement was good news for The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly's Game and Wonder Woman. Not so much for Darkest Hour or Phantom Thread.
Also this week the WGA announced its finalists for Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.
The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are:
The Big Sick
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Adapted Screenplay nominees are:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
It's worth remembering that some surefire Oscar contenders like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were not eligible for consideration under WGA rules.
The last big critics group to announce their choices for the Best of 2017 did so on Saturday. The National Society of Film Critics (NFSC) named Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird the Best Film of the year in an incredible close vote as it topped Jordan Peele's Get Out by a single ballot.
Lady Bird claimed four wins in all as Gerwig was singled out as Best Director and the writer of the Best Screenplay as well and Laurie Metcalf was named Best Supporting Actress.
Other TFF #44 films also were honored:
Sally Hawkins was named Best Actress for The Shape of Water (and Maudie-TFF #43)
Graduation was named Best Foreign Film and Faces Places was named Best Non-Fiction Film.
TFF #44 films only missed on three awards from the group.
Additionally, Saoirse Ronan was runner-up for Best Actress for Lady Bird. Michael Sthulbarg was a runner-up for Best Supporting Actor in part for The Shape of Water. Faces Places was a runner-up for Best Foreign Language Film.
We are in the awards transition period. The critics have largely weighed in, Oscar nomination ballots are going out to the AMPAS membership (voting starts today) and the Golden Globes are being handed out on Sunday. It's time for the Guilds to make their mark. The Film Editors teed off this week with their Tuesday announcement of nominees. The Writer's Guild named their nominees yesterday and the Art Directors Guild announces today. The actors had already spoken with their SAG Award nominees announced on Dec. 14.
Coming up quickly are nominees from the Producers Guild on Jan. 10th and the Directors Guild two days later.
Here's what we learned this week. Among "Eddie" editing nominations were a good number of TFF #43 films. Drama nominees included: Arrival, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. La La Land was included among the nominees in the comedy feature category.
The Writers Guild nominated four TFF #43 films for theur screenplays. Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea were nominated in the Best Original Screenplay category and Arrival was nominated as the Best Adapted Screenplay. It should be noted that Moonlight has been deemed an adapted screenplay for Oscar consideration.
TELLURIDE FILMS DOMINATE ONLINE FILM CRITICS AWARDS
The Online Film Critics Society went for Telluride 2016 films in a big way as they announced their awards on Tuesday. TFF #43 films won a total of eight of the OFCS awards.
Barry Jenkins Moonlight was the big winner with the OFCS awarding it four prizes: Best Picture, Direction and Supporting wins for Maharshala Ali and Naomie Harris.
La La Land picked up two wins for film editing and cinematography.
Manchester by the Sea's Casey Aflleck was named Best Actor and Eric Heisserer won for Best Adapted Screenplay for Arrival.
Lionsgate tweeted out a new trailer for Damien Chazelle's La La Land on Tuesday as the film continues to do well in limited release and also expands into more and more theaters. This trailer uses the John Legend song Start a Fire as the aural backdrop for scenes from the film.
Take a look at it here from YouTube:
HBO DROPS BRIGHT LIGHTS TRAILER
In light of its decision to push the premiere of the documentary Bright Lights: Starring Debboe Reynolds and Carrie Fisher up to Jan. 7th, it shouldn't be a surprise that HBO released a trailer for the doc yesterday. Here it is from YouTube:
Coverage of the trailer and the doc's premiere is here from:
Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has posted an evolving listing of films (80 at the time of this post) of films suspected or confirmed for 2017 release that he calls "high end releases". From that list I have culled ten that have a reasonable chance of playing Telluride plus an additional ten that I would personally put on my Telluride 2017 wish list.
On the "could play" list:
Downsizing/Alexander Payne
Roma/Alfonso Cuaron
Wonderstruck/Todd Haynes
The Sisters Brother/Jacques Audiard
Mektoub is Meltoub/Abdellatif Kechiche
Tully/Jason Reitman
Untitled Andrey Zvyaginstev Film
The Current War/Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
Happy Ending/Michael Haneke
You Were Never Really Here/Lynne Ramsay
Wish List:
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
The Finest Hour/Joe Wright
Blade Runner 2049/Denis Villenueve
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Montara/Stephen Speilberg
Mother/Darren Aronofsky
Last Flag Flying/Richard Linklater
Chappaquiddick/John Curran
The Shape of Water/Guillermo Del Toro
Battle of the Sexes/Faris and Dayton
Molly's Game/Aaron Sorkin
Well...we're less than a week from answering all the Oscar questions. Some categories are locked up (Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress). Some categories are really thrilling: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplays. Some are obscure: Shorts: Feature, Documentary, Animated. Nevertheless, by this time next week, I'll be posting the annual Oscar aftermath/analysis and we'll all find things about which to be pleased, puzzled and outraged.
Then it'll start up again.
Honestly, it's really already started again with the Berlin fest concluding (see report below) and Cannes peeking around the corner. We've already had a slew of "most anticipated" film lists for 2015 to chew over. Once Oscar 2015 is in the rear view, we'll have some peeps that'll begin the early speculation about Oscar 2016. Also coming, and in earnest, speculation about what films make the Cannes lineup and with that my Telluride #42 analysis/speculation will get more serious as well.
It's been a truly intriguing season and fun too. When Telluride #41 was over, my favorite film of the weekend was Inarritu's "Birdman". My belief at the time was that Keaton was going to be really hard to beat for Best Actor and that Inarritu might be have a real shot at Best Director and Original Screenplay but that the film itself might just be outside of The Academy's Best Picture comfort zone. Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" seemed like the most likely BP film from Telluride.
Now, at less than a week before the envelopes are open, it appears to be a two film dead heat between The Bird and The Boy (Richard Linklater's "Boyhood"). You'll see how tight it looks on the chart below. After last year's down-to- the- wire battle between "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" I anticipated that we'd have a much less competitive race this year and for most of the season, it looked that way as almost every prognosticator thought "Boyhood" was the inevitable Best Picture winner. But with "Birdman's" strong Guild showing, the calculations have changed and it is, again, very, very close.
"Boyhood's" BAFTA wins last weekend seem to have turned the pundits away from a wholesale stampede to crown "Birdman" Best Picture and so, here we are. It's a squeaker, it would seem, and The Academy's use of a preferential ballot will tell the tale. Where do the votes go from the down ballot films once they're eliminated? If this week's FAC is to be believed, "Whiplash" looks like the first film that'll drop off the ballot...what will its supporters have in that #2 spot? Those votes will be re-apportioned to remaining films.
There is a threshold percentage that a film has to maintain in each round to stay in contention (I'm not certain what that is) but this process goes on until some film hits 50% plus one of the total #1 votes after a round of re-apportioning and that's your winner.
So, if all the "Whiplash" voters put "Birdman" at #2...the Bird gets much closer to flying.
A number of the real Oscar blogger types have run simulations. I believe InContention and The Wrap have. So, if you have an interest in a deeper look at the process, you might look at both of those blogs. They're in my list of linked sights to the right of this column.
Personally, I still haven't caught "Boyhood". It might really send me over the moon and I know I'll get there eventually (I actually nearly watched it Friday night but opted for "Nightcrawler" instead. Was not disappointed. A very good film and Jake Gyllenhaal gives what might be his best performance). So, it doesn't make a lot of sense that I'm hoping for a "Birdman" win on Sunday night. Maybe, with a "Boyhood" viewing, I might conclude that it really is the best film of the year. But I doubt it. I said in T-ride last Labor Day that I thought "Birdman" was a masterpiece and Inarritu's best film and I still think that's true. Besides, I want the Telluride string to continue...
Last note and then it's onto the FAC for the eight major categories...
Right at this minute, I've got a warm feeling about The Bird's chances and I mean beyond Best Picture. I have a feeling it might have a big night: Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Cinematography. Maybe one other. Of course, that feeling could just as easily pass by tonight and go through multiple permutations by Sunday night...
THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO-THE BIG EIGHT
Here's the latest Oscar snapshot from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the eight most anticipated categories.
The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Telluride #41 films areBold. Telluride has 18 nominations form these eight major categories.
BEST PICTURE
1) Birdman
2) Boyhood 3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash
Comment: "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close. The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE. Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top. It's a nail biter.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood 2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel 4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game 5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher
Comment: Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu. Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well. There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director again this year as it did last year. That'd be weird, but the season has been weird. What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu. My personal feeling, as mentioned above...and perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.
BEST ACTOR
1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything 2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper 4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game 5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
Comment: Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night. I still think Keaton has a shot.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything 3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl 5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night
Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up. Moore wins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood 2) Emma Stone/Birdman 3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game 4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods
Comment: Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) JK Simmons/Whiplash 2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood 4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge
Comment: JK wins.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper 3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice
Comment: This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks. I could see this landing for any of the five.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Grand Budapest Hotel 2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler 5) Foxcatcher
Comment: Also an uber competitive category. "Budapest" edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close. Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.
Other notes:
There's some talk that "Whiplash" could come out of the night with the most Oscar wins. Best Supporting Actor is a lock and Editing looks fairly likely. A win for Adapted Screenplay isn't out of the question and it has to be a serious contender for Sound Mixing. That's four of the five it's nominated for and that might be the biggest haul of the night (last year that honor went to "Gravity").
There's another school of thought that all eight of the Best Picture nominated films might walk away with at least one trophy on Sunday night. That would be really unusual but I can see it happening.
I still can't grasp how "Foxcatcher" missed a Best Picture nomination. Noms for direction, screenplay, actor and supporting actor...but not Best Picture. It doesn't make a lot of sense. But, then it IS Oscar..."sense" don't figure into it...pardon the grammar.
COMING THURSDAY...ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES RANKED FOR WINNERS IN THE ALMOST FINAL FAC!!!
WRITERS GUILD ANNOUNCES
The Writers Guild of America announced the winners of their awards for 2014 Saturday. TFF #41 film "The Imitation Game" by Graham Moore won Best Adapted Screenplay. Wes Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel" won Best Original Screenplay. The WGA isn't always the best predictor of the Oscar winner in those categories due its stringent eligibility rules. For example, "Birdman" was ineligible for consideration making "Budapest's" win less definitive. Writers Guild coverage is linked here:
The Berlin Film Fest came to an end Saturday with the announcement of award winners. The Golden Bear was won by guerrilla Iranian film maker Jafar Panahi's "Taxi". The film maker whose work is banned in Iran and yet continues to make films and smuggle them out of the country was recognized for his docu-drama. Pablo Larrain's "The Club" was winner of the Silver Bear while acting prizes went to Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay for Andrew Haigh's "45 Years".
Frankly, I think all three films mentioned above, in addition to Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" all have a real shot to make the trip to Telluride over Labor Day.
Linked below is some serious Berlin Awards coverage:
As noted above, we're coming down the Oscar homestretch and I have linked some more of the late-in-the-game pieces for "Birdman", "Wild Tales" and "The Imitation Game" here.
The first "Birdman" piece focuses on an extended clip from the film. Variety has that here:
The New York Times published this "Making of" piece about Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated "Wild Tales" which is wildly considered the only film with a shot to deny "Ida" the Foreign Language Oscar. It's here:
And as mentioned above as well, the serious speculation about what will unspool at Cannes is heating up and took the form of this post from Cineuropa this week. It's interesting but is also such an enormous list as to be not all that illuminating.
Titles that grabbed my attention included:
Stephen Frears' "Icon" (his Lance Armstrong film)...though it is currently and ambiguously set for an August release in the U.S. which would mean no Telluride.
Thomas Vinterberg's "The Commune". The article also mentions Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd" but that already has a U.S. release set for May 1st.
Matteo Garrone's "The Tale of Tales".
Todd Haynes' "Carol" starring Cate Blanchett
Jacques Audiard's "Erran". Sundance Selects has already locked up the U.S. distribution for the film which should keep it in the Telluride conversation. Last year the company was represented at Telluride by Ethan Hawke's "Seymour: An Introduction" and The Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night.
Denis Villeneuve's "Sicario" He's been programmed Telluride recently with "Prisoners" and "Incendies".
Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard. The Weinsteins ("The Imitation Game") are distributing and See Saw Films is the production company ("Shame", "Tracks").
Sean Penn's "The Last Face" starring Charlize Theron, Javier Bardem and Adele Exarchopolous. Penn' last directing effort "Into the Wild" played Telluride in 2007.
Barbet Schroeder's "Amnesia". Schroeder has had a long relationship with Telluride but hasn't been represented at the festival since 2007's "Terror's Advocate".
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