I'll be live tweeting (@Gort2) the ceremonies tonight (actually, I'll probably be live re-tweeting). So go find me on Twitter.
I've run the numbers one last time using the resources of 9 Oscarologists all season long. They are:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
I have been lucky enough to meet some of these fine people over the past couple of years and I really appreciate their expertise. Thanks!
As always Telluride #39 films are Bold!
Now onto the Last Call...
I've divided the Categories into three sub-groups: Locked, Probable and Too Close to Call, but I Will Anyway. Here they are and here's what happens tonight (fair warning, I expect that The FAC accuracy will be right around 70-75%...that seems normal over the past 4 years and my "hunches"...probably none of them actually happen):
LOCKS
8 categories appear to have their winner solidly in place and any other winner seems virtually unthinkable. They are:
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina (although, I have to say...I wonder if enough Academy members even saw the film...)
Best Song: Skyfall from "Skyfall"
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugarman
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln
PROBABLES
These 5 categories have likely winners, but there could still be some other film/person that edges by them;
Best Short Animation: "Paperman" is likely but "Adam and Dog" is nipping at its heels (I'm sorry but I couldn't resist the "Dog" pun/metaphor)
Best Sound Mixing: "Les Miserables" is the likely winner but "Skyfall" could win the trophy
Best Production Design: "Anna Karenina" is strong here but "Life of Pi" could challenge and here's my first "hunch" and diversion from The FAC metric...I think it will be "Life of Pi"
Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi" is likely to win but don't underestimate the chance that Roger Deakins finally wins after 10 nominations for "Skyfall"
Best Score: The metric says "Life of Pi" is way out front but I wouldn't be stunned by either a "Lincoln" or "Argo" win here.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT I (AND THE FAC) WILL ANYWAY
10 categories have very close races as we head into this evening. Most are two way battles, but some have even more films/performers in serious contention.
Best Live Action Short: "Curfew" has a lead that has expanded in the last few days in the FAC metric but "Buzkashi Boys", "Death of a Shadow" challenge.
Best Documentary Short: "Inocente" with a small lead here but any of three other films could easily win the award: "King's Point", "Mondays at Racine" and "Open Heart".
Best Sound Editing: "Life of Pi" holds a small edge over "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty" has made a late surge among the experts.
Best Makeup/Hair: "Les Miserables"leads "The Hobbit" by a hair...forgive me.
Best Animated Feature: This is a no holds barred nail biter between "Wreck It Ralph" (which has the late edge) and "Brave" with "Frankenweenie still a real possibility. Hunch #2: "Brave" wins
Best Original Screenplay: "Amour" has a slight lead over both "Django Unchained" and "Zero Dark Thirty".
Best Adapted Screenplay: "Argo" as a lead over "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" and that lead has expanded over the lat week.
Best Supporting Actor: A crazy category. Robert DeNiro has edged into the lead over Tommy Lee Jones. Waltz and Hoffman have lost some ground but could still get in, especially Waltz.
Best Actress: A very competitive three way race that The FAC process says Jennifer Lawrence has a small advantage and is closely followed by Emmanuelle Riva with Jessica Chastain still possible. Third "hunch" It's Riva tonight for "Amour".
Best Direction: This is led by Steven Spielberg with Ang Lee and David O. Russell in close pursuit. Hunch #4 is that it's Ang Lee.
AND BEST PICTURE IS...
All signs point to a win by "Argo" which, if it does happen, will mean that the Best Picture in 4 of the last 5 years went through Telluride (2012-"The Artist", 2011-"The King's Speech", 2009-"Slumdog Millionaire").
FAC breakdown has "Argo" with 3 Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Editing (and another possible) and "Amour" with 2 (Foreign Film and Original Screenplay) with another possible for Actress. "Paperman" is favored to win as well.
THE LAST CALL
More finals Oscar predictions from a bunch of people in the know:
Metacritic: http://www.metacritic.com/feature/2013-oscar-predictions
Gurus of Gold (Movie City News): http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-charts-top-2-only-1-of-2/
Gold Derby: http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/events/oscars-2012
Oscar Talk: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-107-final-stabs-in-the-dark
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-final-predictions
HitFix/InContention: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-2013-oscars-predictions-where-did-hitfixs-experts-land
Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8972352/who-win-2013-oscars
The Carpetbagger/New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/movies/awardsseason/the-carpetbaggers-2013-oscar-predictions.html
We'll all know later tonight. Check back tomorrow for an Oscar post mortem.
Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.
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