Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Good Wednesday to All...2 days...1 day...if you've been reading...you know.
WELCOME
And by that I mean that you are welcome to attend the Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW" at 5:00pm Friday at The River Club, 550 Depot in Telluride for a conversation about this year's festival lineup, the blog...and whatever else might come up. Hosts Mitzi and Larry Mallard will open The River Club's doors and provide some drinks and snacks...come by...say hello!
LEANING TOWARDS...
Coming down the stretch this week and there seems fairly strong buzz/indications that we almost certainly can count on Ben Affleck's "Argo", Brian DePalma's "Passion" and Walter Salles "On the Road". All three have been on the MTFB radar and "Argo" was listed Monday on the "Additional Ten Bets" List at #11. These three join "Rust and Bone", "Hyde Park on Hudson", "The Central Park Five", "Frances Ha', "Ginger and Rosa" and "Midnight's Children" as virtual certainties for this weekend.
What this means is that I will, in fact, do a final "Ten Bets" tomorrow and post it before I get in the car and head to the mountains.
VENICE FILMS???
The Venice Film Festival opens today with Mira Nair's "The Reluctant Fundamentalist" and if the past is any guide , somewhere between 2-4 films will cross over from Venice to southwest Colorado. The most likely possibilities are:
Among competition films: "At Any Price", "Something in the Air", "Passion".
"To the Wonder" and "The Master" now are unlikely Telluride candidates.
Among the out of competition films: "Love is All You Need", "The Reluctant Fundamentalist", "The Company You Keep", "The Iceman".
And if I were forced to chose I'd rank the five most likely as: "Passion", "At Any Price", "The Iceman", "Something in the Air" and "The Company You Keep".
CENTRAL PARK FIVE
I don't think it's much of a secret that I've had this Ken Burns and Co. documentary on the "Ten Bets" list all summer. It's going to play, I say.
A new clip from Sundance hit and one of my personal hopes for this weekend "The Sessions" emerged yesterday. Here it is:
NATIVE SILENCE
And put this down in your notebook for Telluride #40...a restored silent film starring Native Americans discovered and restored here in my home state of Oklahoma. The article says that it's headed to Telluride which would have to mean 2013 and has the support of the above-mentioned Mr. Burns. It's sounds fascinating!
Here's the link to the article from IndianCountryTodaymedianetwork.com:
HitFix has a very nice pictorial up of 20 films it isolates as the films it most anticipates this fall. A number of probable/possible Telluride titles make their list including: "Passion", "Argo", "Frances Ha", "Something in the Air", "The Iceman" and "At Any Price". And some less likely T-ride possibilities such as: "Cloud Atlas", "Anna Karenina", "Great Expectations", "Much Ado About Nothing", "Quartet", "The Place Beyond the Pines", "Seven Psychopaths" and "The Impossible".
Good Tuesday to Everyone...The first film happens in 3 days...I burn miles in 2!
JOIN THE FUN
In now in what is a constant refrain, remember that you're invited to join me and hosts Mitzi and Larry Mallard for the "Second Annual(?) Guide to the "Ride; Flow of the SHOW" Friday at 5:00pm at The River Club, 550 Depot in Telluride. Come...we'll banter about film and have a sip and a nosh...should be fun.
MORE INFORMED SPEC
Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeff Wells) claims that Oscar winner (and likely nominee again this year) Marion Cotillard and Dane Mads Mikkelsen are two of the traditional three tributees for this year's Telluride Film Festival. If true, you can expect to see Cotillard's "Rust and Bone" (#1 on this week's "Ten Bets") and Mikkelsen's "The Hunt" (# 19 on the additional "Ten Bets") and/or "A Royal Affair" (nowhere to be found on MTFB).
Marion Cotillard! I'm down with that!
Wells also runs through films that he has previously suggested are likely: "Argo", "Frances Ha", "Ginger and Rosa", "Hyde Park on Hudson", "Passion" and maybe "The Sapphires". He also claims that Terrence Malick's "To the Wonder" is now off the board.
I first noted this as a possibility for Telluride on July 16th with a piece that appeared from InContention/Hit Fix's Guy Lodge.
And, as a matter of fact, I included it this past week as #17 in the additional "Ten Bets" yesterday. Now comes the news from Kris Tapley at InContention/HitFix that the French animated film has a U.S. distributor. It's GKIDS. Tapley also speculates that it could pop up this weekend. Here's the link to his post: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/gkids-picks-up-ernest-celestine-for-2013-release
On a related matter...I had one of those moments yesterday for about an hour in which I thought I had stumbled across some possibly shattering info that would ultimately lead me to be able to up my prediction on the chances that "The Master" might still "sneak" as a part of the TFF #39 program this weekend. I was pretty excited...chased and chased...searched and googled. Doubled back....
Good Monday to Everyone...It's Telluride #39 week! First film in 4 more days...Transport leaves the dock in 3!
REMINDER
If you're reading this blog remember that you're invited to a blog-centric wing ding on Friday at 5:00 pm at The River Club at 550 Depot in Telluride. We'll get together and talk a little, visit, schmooze...have a little vino and maybe a nibble...It's the Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW so we might also mention this film festival that's about to happen.
TEN BETS
Some changes this week...because I think I've tuned into some pretty reliable information...
Last week's "Ten Bets":
This week's "Ten Bets":
1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) Amour
5) No
6) The Iceman
7) The Central Park Five
8) Bromberg's Chaplin
9) On the Road
10) Beyond the Hills
This week's "Ten Bets" (and maybe my last "Ten Bets" post before the festival kicks off on Friday...though I might do updates as this week progresses...depends what I turn up).
1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) The Central Park Five
5) Frances Ha
6) Ginger and Rosa
7) No
8) The Iceman
9) Bromberg's Chaplin
10) Amour
"On the Road" and "Beyond the Hills" fall off the "Ten Bets" into the 30+ that could play category. They'd be in the "Ten More Bets section...which..OK...here it is (though I told myself I wasn't going to do "Ten More Bets" this year)
Ten More Bets
11) Argo
12) Rainy Day Tales
13) Something in the Air
14) The Sapphires
15) Beyond the Hills
16) Song for Marion
17) Ernest and Celestine
18) To the Wonder (I know I'm crazy to put the Malick here...but some smart peeps think it's possible)
19) The Hunt
20) Hannah Arendt
You all know that this is my "Great white whale" for this year's "serious" movie season and if you read this blog much, you also know that I've been hoping that it would somehow make an appearance this week in the San Juans. Further, you know that I don't really think that there's much of a chance that is likely to happen. Nevertheless, hope springs...
So here's a nifty analytical piece from Move City News' David Poland..who makes a good point...a lot has been written, but not very much actual critique...aversion to spoilers, perhaps? read Poland's piece...see what you think:
#2 on my list of films that I have been hoping would be programmed is Ben Lewin's "The Sessions". It also isn't a likely pick as it premiered at Sundance. But, you know, maybe...
It stars John Hawkes, Helen Hunt and William H. Macy...all of whom have gotten some Oscar buzz. It's distributor Fox Searchlight started to turn up the heat for it this last week in prep for its announced screening in Toronto. Look at these posts from Fox Searchlight and Thompson on Hollywood:
As I get down to the last couple of weeks before the SHOW each year, I start to wonder about whether to include films that have cropped up on my radar and in my research that aren't "name" films. I have 2-3 right now that I'm suspicious about but are also the result of some pretty big deductive leaps on my part. For now, I'm keeping quiet...but I also have the temptation to spill titles because if they do end up being announced on Thursday afternoon...I'd look really, really brilliant or equally stupid.
So, I'm keeping my piehole closed here. I will say Irish for one and indie horror short for the other. I'll let you know...after the SHOW.
Good Saturday to All! 6 Days until The SHOW (Panhandle Express leaves in 5!)
YOUR INVITATION...
I want to make sure every reader knows that they (well, everyone) is cordially invited to a brief reception on Friday, Aug. 31 at 5:00pm at The River Club (550 Depot) in Telluride. The soiree is called "The Second Annual(?) Guide to the "Ride; The Flow of the SHOW". We'll rub elbows and talk a little bit about what the weekend is going to hold for us. Should be fun. Hosts Mitzi and Larry mallard tell me that we can expect refreshments...maybe a little wine, maybe a nosh.
RANKING THE "THIRTY" (32) THAT COULD PLAY
Pics from Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone"...currently #1 on my "Ten Bets" list
This week's effort to identify 30 films beyond that "Ten Bets" list that have some chance of playing this week as a part of the 39th Telluride film Festival is repeated here and ranked according to what I think the film's chances are:
Here’s where we stand at the end of the week vis a vis that “Thirty That Could Play” (now 32 with yesterday’s additions of “Ginger and Rosa” and “The Act of Killing”) from most likely to least likely. Some of these will actually move into the “Ten Bets” list on Monday.
Frances Ha 85%
Argo 70%
To the Wonder 70%
Rainy Day Tales 65%
Something in the Air 65%
Song for Marion 65%
Ginger and Rosa 65%
The Sapphires 60%
Ernestine and Celeste 55%
Trouble with the Curve 55%
The Silver Linings Playbook 55%
The Hunt 55%
Reality 50%
Passion 50%
Hannah Arendt 50%
The Reluctant Fundamentalist 50%
The Act of Killing 50%
Cloud Atlas 50%
The Impossible 50%
Yellow 50%
At Any Price 45%
Killing Them Softly 45%
The Sessions 45%
Like Someone in Love 40%
Great Expectations 40%
You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet 35%
The East 35%
Anna Karenina 30%
Promised Land 30%
The Angel’s Share 25%
The Master 25%
Quartet 25%
Of course, Thursday I also included an additional list of "possibles" just floating below these 32. They included: "The Company You Keep", "A Late Quartet", "Arthur Newman", "Dangerous Liaisons", "Caesar Must Die" (look out for this one), "Everybody Has a Plan", "The Gatekeepers" (also this), "In the Fog", "Laurence Anyways", "Love is All You Need", "Much Ado About Nothing", "The Place Beyond the Pines", "Populaire", "Post Tenebras Lux", "Room 237", "Seven Psychopaths" and "The We and the I".
And, of course, there will be films I just don't even have on my radar at all that make the SHOW...What can I say? It's not an exact science.
MIKEY'S WISH LIST
So, irrespective of their chances of playing...what 10 films would I MOST like to see programmed for this week?
1) The Master
2) The Sessions
3) Cloud Atlas
4) Rust and Bone
5) Hyde Park on Hudson
6) Amour
7) Argo
8) No
9) To the Wonder
10) The Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Song for Marion, The Sapphires, Quartet, Midnight's Children, On the Road
What would be a shocker???
Lincoln
Inside Llewyn Davis
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Django Unchained (which reportedly just wrapped a couple of weeks ago).
NEW PLAYER IN THE CONVO
News broke yesterday afternoon that Sony Pictures Classics had signed on to distribute Robert Redford's new film "The Company You Keep". This has led to a good deal of speculation that it could pop up this week in Telluride (and I'd be pretty happy if it did).
Redford stars and directs. The story centers on a man whose past is discovered and forces him to take flight. Shia LeBoeuf and Julie Christie lead the rest of an incredible cast: Sam Elliot, Chris Cooper, Susan Sarandon, Brendan Gleeson, Richard Jenkins, Anna Kendrick, Stanley Tucci, Terrence Howard, Nick Nolte and Brit Marling...and that's not the complete cast.
Details in posts linked here from The Wrap, Thompson on Hollywood, The Playlist and Rope of Silicon:
Personally, I have reservations about the its chances because it's already set for Venice and Toronto but the SPC pickup means that you have to give it some consideration.
I can tell we're down to less than a week because the annual insanity has begun. What do I mean? Well, I do this "what's going to be at Telluride?" thing for 6 months of the year (really year round, but with serious of purpose from March until the Festival) but now a lot of people are going to chime in. Some of that has value. The bloggers/reporters that I typically cite and that are by and large linked to on the right side of this blog are very good at this...but there will be plenty of folks over the next few days that aren't as reliable or who are just making stuff up that will claim some knowledge of what's going to be on the SHOW program. It's entertaining, to a point. And I diligently follow those trails to see if there really is anything there...but beware, my friends, not every claim about what's going to make the festival should be given credence (or rumor of what celebrity is already on the ground in Telluride...I swear I hear Brad Pitt every year).
Case in point: late yesterday a post showed up in a forum on one of the best blogs I follow that claimed to have essentially the whole T-ride program and then listed "it". And there's enough that's believable in it that a casual observer might buy the whole thing (there's also some stuff listed that I wish WOULD be true...but am really skeptical about). For example it claims "Hyde Park on Hudson"...and I think that's going to play. It claims "The Company You Keep" which is highlighted in the above story and has just become a real hot piece of Telluride speculation.
Well, you know, you get excited...then you really look at what it's claiming...and, well...it just doesn't stand up to serious scrutiny. It claims things which are just factually untrue...like an "opening" and "closing" film. Telluride doesn't really do that (or at least they haven't in the past).
So take it with a grain of salt my friends, even THIS BLOG...it's gonna get crazier before we get there!
BEST OF THE WEEK
Best of the week...shorter than normal since I covered a good portion of it above in the "32 That Could Play" section...
PS...I don't think we'll see "The West Memphis Three" next week for two reasons...1) It was a Sundance debut and 2) topically, it's somewhat similar to "The Central Park Five" which I'm thinking is a virtual lock. BUT, if by some happenstance it IS playing (maybe it's a theme doc year?) then maybe we see Mr. Depp in support of it before he jets to Toronto to do the same thing...which would be cool.
MARION
"Rust and Bone" trailer with subtitles
I feel good about the chances that we'll see Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone" show up next week. I'd love to see Ms. Cotillard there in Telluride as well...tres bien!!!
Cotillard has this interview up yesterday with Jada Yuan of Vulture.com:
Just yesterday I reported that Jeff Wells had posted that he was hearing the Noah Baumbach's and Greta Gerwig's "Frances Ha" was likely going to show at the SHOW next week. Consequently I included it in the concluding (part 3) portion of my "Thirty That Could Play" and put its chances at 60%.
I'm bumping that up today. I'm saying with very little equivocation, count on it playing. So much so that "Frances Ha" will be somewhere on Monday's (and the final) "Ten Bets" list.
Good Friday to All! 7 days until it happens! (6 days 'til I'm burning up road to get there)
FRANCES HA
Just yesterday I reported that Jeff Wells had posted that he was hearing the Noah Baumbach's and Greta Gerwig's "Frances Ha" was likely going to show at the SHOW next week. Consequently I included it in the concluding (part 3) portion of my "Thirty That Could Play" and put its chances at 60%.
I'm bumping that up today. I'm saying with very little equivocation, count on it playing. So much so that "Frances Ha" will be somewhere on Monday's (and the final) "Ten Bets" list.
I've posted "Thirty That Could Play" throughout the week and as I go to press today two more films have emerged as real possibilities for the SHOW program...so "32 That Could Play"?
Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere continues his reveal of snippets he's learned about prospective Telluride films with "Ginger and Rosa" directed by Sally Potter and starring Elle Fanning and Alice Englert with Annette Bening and Christina Hendricks in support. The film follows the lives of two young women in London in 1962.
Meanwhile, as I was perusing the Toronto International Film Festival website this week I cam across a documentary that has been executive produced by Werner Herzog and Errol Morris (though neither is IMDb credited). That alone is enough to think that it has serious Telluride potential. The title: "The Act of Killing" from Joshua Oppenheimer and according to its TIFF info it focuses on Indonesian death squads.
Gus Van Sant's "Promised Land" co-written and starring Matt Damon and John Krasinski has a just announced December release date (Dec. 28 in NY/LA) says Kris Tapley at InContention/HitFix. But Tapley also flat out states "no festival season" for the film based on a story by Dave Eggers...this year's TFF #39 poster artist.
Bummer...I really thought I might have connected the dots here by including "Promised Land" as a 30% shot among the "Thirty That Could Play". As long is it was "ready" I said. Thought I was pretty smart...but I guess it's not "ready"
Still...
Keith Jagernauth at The Playlist says there is NO word on festival status for the film and even tosses Telluride into the converstion. Look...here:
Apparently unleashed on the San Francisco crew that watched the screening of "The Master" at the Castro Theater on Tuesday night:
YOUR INVITATION...
I want to make sure every reader knows that they (well, everyone) is cordially invited to a brief reception on Friday, Aug. 31 at 5:00pm at The River Club (550 Depot) in Telluride. The soiree is called "The Second Annual(?) Guide to the "Ride; The Flow of the SHOW". We'll rub elbows and talk a little bit about what the weekend is going to hold for us. Should be fun. Hosts Mitzi and Larry mallard tell me that we can expect refreshments...maybe a little wine, maybe a nosh.
SATURDAY PREVIEW
Tomorrow's post will focus on re-assessing the "Thirty That Could Play" complete with updated chances and rankings of likelihood...plus any late breaking news and any other "Best of the Week" items that strike me as worthy of re-posting.
Good Thursday to Everybody...8 Days...(7 til the bus leaves the Oklahoma Panhandle!)...
INVITATION
Please consider yourself officially invited to a brief "meet and greet and discussion of film" as The River Club kindly presents my "Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW". Refreshments, re-acquaintances, new acquaintances all at 5:00 pm at The River Club at 550 Depot in Telluride. Should be fun.
WELLS SAYS...
I make no secret that I'm an amateur when it comes to this whole film blog universe and am not in the same league as a good number of other folks who really do play the game in a serious fashion. One of those is Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere. Mr. Wells will be attending Telluride and usually does and clearly he has sources...so when he drops some T-ride info...best pay attention. And he did yesterday as I was kindly alerted by Film Blather's Eugene Novikov, Mr. Wells seems to nail down some of the Telluride lineup. He says, cryptically, that we'll see Ben Affleck's "Argo", Roger Michell's "Hyde Park on Hudson", Noah Baumbach's "Frances Ha", Ken Burns "Central Park Five" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone". He implies we're also likely to see Terrence Malick's "To the Wonder". And he mentions Robert Lorenz's "Trouble with the Curve" in such a way that I can't tell if he's debunking the thought that it will be there...or implying that it will obviously be there. Mr. Novikov thinks it's likely the former...
"Rust", "Hyde Park" and "Central Park Five" are on this week's "Ten Bets". The rest have been or will be on this week's progressive "Thirty That Could Play" list that concludes with the final 10 today. See below...
Frankly, the big surprise, to me anyway, would be the Malick...but it would be on my short list of films to catch at the festival if Wells is right.
Also, I have to admit that I had become pretty convinced that "Trouble with the Curve" was happening...but as I said, Wells sentence structure and emphasis make me uncertain as to what he's really saying...
TEN (OF THIRTY) THAT COULD PLAY
I've spent the week outlining 30 films in addition to this week's "Ten Bets" that could find their way onto screens in Telluride next week and assigning a percentage of chance to each one. In all honesty, the Wells blurb yesterday has altered how I have written this final installment. Here are 10 more that could play:
"The Impossible" trailer
"The Impossible" from Juan Antonio Bayona...the film focuses on the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami in southeast Asia and the true story of one family. Ewna MacGregor and Naomi Watts star and attention to it has risen very rapidly over the last 2-3 weeks. Chances-50%
"To the Wonder" from Terrence Malick. The master has turned around a film just months after "The Tree of Life" which for Malick is historically unprecedented. It's reportedly a love story set in part in Europe and Oklahoma...and shot to some extent here in the Sooner State. To be truthful, I have been low balling any chance that it would be in Telluride...until the Wells post yesterday (and credit where due, InContention/HitFix's Kris Tapley said he thought it was a "possible"..so...Chances-60%.
"Yellow" from Nick Cassavettes...also shot partly in Oklahoma, I've thought it might be Telluride material from the first moment I heard about it...still think it could be. Chances-50%
"Frances Ha" from Noah Baumbach. Baumbach has played Telluride before and though I recently put this film on my radar, still thought its chances were small...again, the Wells post makes me reconsider. Chances-60%.
Trailer for "Quartet"
"Quartet" from first time director Dustin Hoffman...mostly on my radar as it's from The Weinstein Company...Hoffman directing an adaptation of a Roland Harwood play...Chances-25%
"At Any Price" from Ramin Bahrani and starring Dennis Quaid, Zac Efron and Heather Graham in an agricultural family drama. Decent buzz and Tapley's inclusion as a "probable" makes it one to consider. Chances-40%.
"Passion" from Brian DePalma. A lot of people think this is going to make the cut and play at Telluride next week so I have to take it seriously, but I have to say I've been dubious about its chances all summer. Chances-40%
Trailer for "The Sessions"
"The Sessions" from Ben Lewin starring John Hawkes and Helen Hunt. This Sundance hit is one of two films that really hit a nerve from that festival (the other being "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Beasts is in release). I've been campaigning in my own tiny way for its inclusion at Telluride despite the fact that it preemed in Utah. Its distributor, Fox Searchlight reportedly wanted it to play Telluride, so my hope is that sentiment (and a lean Fox Search cupboard) makes that a reality. Chances-45%
"Great Expectations" Mike Newell with the latest adaptation of the Dickens classic with Ralph Fiennes and Helena Bonham Carter. Tapley says its a "maybe". I'm not that optimistic. Chances-30%
"Ernest and Celestine" It's French...it's animated...I'll bet it plays. Chances-55%
And beyond these 40 films there are still others that could (and will) play...for example: "The Company You Keep", "A Late Quartet", "Arthur Newman", "Dangerous Liaisons", "Caesar Must Die" (look out for this one), "Everybody Has a Plan", "The Gatekeepers" (also this), "In the Fog", "Laurence Anyways", "Love is All You Need", "Much Ado About Nothing", "The Place Beyond the Pines", "Populaire", "Post Tenebras Lux", "Room 237", "Seven Psychopaths" and "The We and the I".
Christian Munigu's follow up to his Cannes Palme D'or winning "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days" is sitting at #10 on this week's "Ten Bets". The writer/director recently talked to Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood about the Telluride possible film:
I continue the procession through European film production companies that have had a filic presence at Telluride festivals lately as a means to assessing what films could play there this year and today's examination focuses on France 2 Cinema.
Here's their recent track record at TFF:
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2009: Farewell, Inferno, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet
Prior to that I can't find any other films prior to 2004.
As you can see, a big year for France 2 Cinema in 2009 with 4 films then just one in 2010 and 2011. What's got Telluride potential on the F2C plate:
Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air", Walter Salles' "On the Road", Alain Renais' "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone".
All are real possibilities with "Rust" and "Something" the more likely (I think).
Tomorrow: France 3 Cinema.
NEW VIEW OF DJANGO
Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained" continues its steady drip of publicity with the release of a new TV spot that grabbed a good deal of attention the last few days. Here it is:
There has been a little thought that Brian DePalma's new film "Passion" might be available for fall festivals including Telluride (though I'm dubious that it will be either ready or Telluride bound). The Playlist posted a new image from the film with comment here:
Serge Bromberg is a frequent guest at Telluride with various and sundry restoration projects. Last year he presented the restored "A Trip to the Moon" and 2009 saw "Inferno".
Now, a little twitterverse trivia seems to indicate that he'll be back in Telluride this year and likely with Cahrlie Chaplin material in tow. Sounds intriguing...
