Friday, July 1, 2016

2016 Telluride Ten Bets #2 / Distribution: Lionsgate, Roadside and Saban / The Playlist Wish List for Fall Fests

Welcome to Friday and July, my friends...


Here's last week's Ten Bets:

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

Not many changes this week... (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)

In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.


This combination of companies has had the fifth largest profile at Telluride over the past six years, though they were absent in 2015, they have averaged collectively 1.25 films/year.  Here's their collective track record since 2010:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy

So, what do they have lined up for 2016 that might be a Telluride temptation?


La La Land
American Pastoral

(I am personally discounting the chances of Deepwater Horizon, Patriots Day and Hacksaw Ridge...though that decision could be premature).  Neither the Roadside Attractions or Saban Films banners have a film lined up currently that feels Telluride-ish so if this group has a shot at the fest this year it looks like one or both of these films from the Lionsgate group.

I think both are 50/50 prospects, although the announcement last week that La La Land was going to open Venice and be in competition makes me give it a slight edge.  Frankly, I'd like both films to SHOW but, just as easily, neither of them could.

On Monday, I'll look at specialty house Kino Lorber.


As they do annually, The Playlist posted their 50 film wish list for the fall festival season yesterday afternoon.  In it, they make some guesses about what films will play the fest circuit and which fests. Of the 50 films, they list nine as having a chance at Telluride.  They are:

20th Century Women
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
La La Land
A Monster Calls
Trespass Against Us

From their list, if you've read this space much this summer, you will know that I think that 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls, La La Land and Lion all have a shot.  The others, not so much in my estimation.

In addition to the nine films they list with a Telluride potential, they list an additional 11 films that I think have a legitimate chance but that they don't connect to T-ride.  Included are: American Pastoral, Jackie, The Lost City of Z, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, The Oppenheimer Strategies, The Secret Scripture, Snowden, Una, A United Kingdom and War Machine.

It should be noted that over the past couple of years The Playlist "50 Wish List" has not been particularly prescient about Telluride guesses.  Last year they tagged 13 films in the article and only two panned out.  In 2014 it was one of six.  So, grain of salt people.

Here's the link to the complete post and its 50 films.

That's a wrap for Friday and for the week.  Have a good weekend and come back Monday.

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