THE FINAL FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Here it is friends, the last stab at trying to sort out Oscar's choices before the show goes live tonight. As always. these predictions are strictly for fun and entertainment...no wagering...
Last year THE FAC was 22 of 24 for a 91.7% accuracy. This year won't be that good.
Past year's accuracy:
2013: 18 of 24 = 75%
2012: 18 of 24 = 75%
2011: 17 of 21 = 81%
2010: 14 of 24 = 58.3%
The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
THE LOCKS: These films and folks are 99% certain to pick up hardware tonight:
Julianne Moore- Best Actress for "Still Alice"
Patricia Arquette-Best Supporting Actress for "Boyhood"
JK Simmons-Best Supporting Actor for "Whiplash"
"Citizenfour"-Best Documentary
"Birdman"-Best Cinematography
"Boyhood"-Film Editing
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Production Design
THE VERY PROBABLE...BUT...
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Costumes (but an outside shot for "Into the Woods")
"How to Train Your Dragon 2"- Best Animated Feature (Spoiler: "Big Hero 6")
"Glory" from "Selma"-Best Original Song (Outside shot: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from "I'll Be Me")
"American Sniper"-Best Sound Editing (Spoiler" "Birdman")
THE LIKELY BUT AN UPSET IS ALSO VERY POSSIBLE
Eddie Redmayne-Best Actor for "The Theory of Everything". Michael Keaton could still surprise with a win for "Birdman" but that's certainly NOT the way the experts see this category. Still, I'm going to step away from my own FAC metric and pick a Keaton win here. Mostly because it's what I want to happen here.
"Ida"-Best Foreign Language Film. "Wild Tales" or "Leviathan" could sneak away with the award. The FAC stays with "Ida"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Makeup/Hair though either "Guardians of the Galaxy" or "Foxcatcher" could surprise.
"American Sniper"-Best Sound Mixing. "Birdman" is your potential upset winner here.
"Interstellar"-Best Visual Effects. The spoiler could be "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" or "Guardians of the Galaxy".
THE "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" BUT WE'RE GOING TO CALL THEM ANYWAY:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Three films with a realistic choice here. THE FAC SAYS: "Feast" but look out for "The Dam Keeper" or "The Bigger Picture".
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Any of the five could win. "Parveneh", "Boogaloo and Graham", "Butter Lamp", "Aya" but THE FAC SAYS: "Phone Call".
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A tight, tight race but THE FAC SAYS: "Crisis Hotline" edges "Joanna"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE- A barn burner between "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" THE FAC SAYS: "The Theory of Everything".
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: "The Imitation Game" won the WGA ans the USC Scripter awards but "Whiplash" has come on strong since it was discovered that The Academy regarded the script as adapted from an earlier short version of the film rather than an original script. Also, there is thought to be strong support for "American Sniper". THE FAC SAYS: "The Imitation Game"
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: It's "Budapest" versus "Birdman" versus "Boyhood" with "Budapest" holding the edge here in the last FAC chart. THE FAC SAYS: "The Grand Budapest Hotel". If a "Birdman" mini-sweep evolves, and I think it could, this could end up being a part of that.
BEST DIRECTOR: The last FAC had this as a dead heat between Alejandro Inarritu/"Birdman" and Richard Linklater/"Boyhood" with the edge going to Linklater and a split between Best Director and Best Picture likely. I wrote then that I was sensing a shift to an Inarritu win. THE FINAL FAC SAYS: Inarritu!
BEST PICTURE: THE FAC SAYS: "BIRDMAN" over "Boyhood".
If a "Birdman" wave occurs, it could win Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Sound Mixing.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/big-bad-predictions-chart/ http://www.awardsdaily.com/main-tech-predictions/
Peter Howell/The Toronto Star: http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/2015/02/19/toronto-star-movie-critic-peter-howell-picks-boyhood-for-best-picture-oscar.html
MetaCritic: http://www.metacritic.com/feature/final-predictions-for-the-2015-academy-awards
INDEPENDENT SPIRITS: BIRD AND BOY
The Independent Spirit Awards were handed out yesterday honoring the best in American independent cinema. "Birdman" won three trophies: Picture, Actor and Cinematography while "Boyhood" won for Best Direction and Supporting Actress. The complete coverage is here from The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-2015-indie-spirit-award-winners-as-theyre-announced-20150221
I'll have more tomorrow in my regular Monday post-post Oscar post and, as you might expect< I'll be live-tweeting tonight as the ceremony is unfolding. Find me on Twitter @Gort2
"Ida"-Best Foreign Language Film. "Wild Tales" or "Leviathan" could sneak away with the award. The FAC stays with "Ida"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Makeup/Hair though either "Guardians of the Galaxy" or "Foxcatcher" could surprise.
"American Sniper"-Best Sound Mixing. "Birdman" is your potential upset winner here.
"Interstellar"-Best Visual Effects. The spoiler could be "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" or "Guardians of the Galaxy".
THE "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" BUT WE'RE GOING TO CALL THEM ANYWAY:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Three films with a realistic choice here. THE FAC SAYS: "Feast" but look out for "The Dam Keeper" or "The Bigger Picture".
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Any of the five could win. "Parveneh", "Boogaloo and Graham", "Butter Lamp", "Aya" but THE FAC SAYS: "Phone Call".
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A tight, tight race but THE FAC SAYS: "Crisis Hotline" edges "Joanna"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE- A barn burner between "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" THE FAC SAYS: "The Theory of Everything".
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: "The Imitation Game" won the WGA ans the USC Scripter awards but "Whiplash" has come on strong since it was discovered that The Academy regarded the script as adapted from an earlier short version of the film rather than an original script. Also, there is thought to be strong support for "American Sniper". THE FAC SAYS: "The Imitation Game"
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: It's "Budapest" versus "Birdman" versus "Boyhood" with "Budapest" holding the edge here in the last FAC chart. THE FAC SAYS: "The Grand Budapest Hotel". If a "Birdman" mini-sweep evolves, and I think it could, this could end up being a part of that.
BEST DIRECTOR: The last FAC had this as a dead heat between Alejandro Inarritu/"Birdman" and Richard Linklater/"Boyhood" with the edge going to Linklater and a split between Best Director and Best Picture likely. I wrote then that I was sensing a shift to an Inarritu win. THE FINAL FAC SAYS: Inarritu!
BEST PICTURE: THE FAC SAYS: "BIRDMAN" over "Boyhood".
If a "Birdman" wave occurs, it could win Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Sound Mixing.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/big-bad-predictions-chart/ http://www.awardsdaily.com/main-tech-predictions/
Peter Howell/The Toronto Star: http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/2015/02/19/toronto-star-movie-critic-peter-howell-picks-boyhood-for-best-picture-oscar.html
MetaCritic: http://www.metacritic.com/feature/final-predictions-for-the-2015-academy-awards
Gurus of Gold:
http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/
Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:
http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/
Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:
The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:
The Wrap/Steve Pond:
IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218
Deadline/Pete Hammond:
http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218
Deadline/Pete Hammond:
http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/
Kristopher Tapley/InContention:
Joey Magidson/Awards Circuit:
Cara Buckley/The Carpetbagger:
Richard Corliss/Time:
Tomris Laffley/Popcorn Business:
INDEPENDENT SPIRITS: BIRD AND BOY
The Independent Spirit Awards were handed out yesterday honoring the best in American independent cinema. "Birdman" won three trophies: Picture, Actor and Cinematography while "Boyhood" won for Best Direction and Supporting Actress. The complete coverage is here from The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-2015-indie-spirit-award-winners-as-theyre-announced-20150221
I'll have more tomorrow in my regular Monday post-post Oscar post and, as you might expect< I'll be live-tweeting tonight as the ceremony is unfolding. Find me on Twitter @Gort2
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