Ten Bets #4 for TFF #44 / Wonderstruck Reveals a Trailer / mother! Has a New Date / And We End Where We Began

Welcome to Friday everyone...

TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF#44

Here's my last "Ten Bets" before the clarity that will descend next week as Toronto and Venice begin to announce their lineups.  As the rest of the summer unfolds into early fall Toronto will continue to add film selections weekly and we'll add to that selections from New York and London and end up with a fairly comprehensive and largely correct listing of films for Telluride's 44th edition.



As a reminder here's last week's Ten Bets:

1) Wonderstruck
2) Visages/Villages
3) Loveless
4) The Florida Project
5) A Fantastic Woman
6) Battle of the Sexes
7) 120 BPM
8) The Other Side of Hope
9) You Were Never Really Here
10) Downsizing


And this week's:

1) Wonderstruck (with a trailer out yesterday...see below)
2) Downsizing
3) Visages/Villages
4) Loveless
5) Battle of the Sexes
6) The Florida Project
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) A Fantastic Woman
9) The Other Side of Hope
10) The Current War


Other possibles: 120 BPM, The Shape of Water, The Rider, Loving Vincent, mother!, Happy End, Redoubtable, The Death of Stalin, Ken Burns Vietnam


On Monday...MTFB's "Telluride Wish List"...yes, there are films that I wish for.


WONDERSTRUCK REVEALS A TRAILER

Todd Haynes film based on Brian Selznick's novel has been sitting on top of the MTFB Ten Bets for the last two weeks.  It opened the first "Ten Bets" at #3.  Suffice to say that I strongly believe it will play TFF #44.  So I was excited yesterday evening to discover that the Cannes competition film dropped a trailer.  Here it is from YouTube:

Wonderstruck trailer release coverage from:

The Film Stage

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly



mother! HAS A NEW DATE

I'm not sure what it portends but Darren Aronofsky's mother! has been scheduled for anew release date a full month earlier than it had been originally planned.  The film was set for an Oct. 13th date but that changed yesterday with a move up to Sept. 15th.

Variety pointed out that it could still mean a play for the film at Telluride, Venice and even Toronto.

Aronofsky's Black Swan played Venice, Telluride and Toronto in 2010 but that was with a December release date.  Black Swan earned five Oscar nominations including a win for Natalie Portman for Best Actress and nominations for Best Picture and Best Direction.

The film stars Oscar winners Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem.

In other mother! news...word is that a trailer appeared in some theaters that were playing Dunkirk yesterday which means we could expect to see it soon.

Gotta tell you, I kind of think it might show up at The SHOW now.

Further coverage of the move for mother! is here from:

SlashFilm




AND WE END WHERE WE BEGAN

We started this week with the awful news of the passing of George Romero and Martin Landau and it only feels right to end there as well.

Former TFF Co-director Gary Meyer put together a fantastic reminder, reverie and recognition of the two men at Eat, Drink, Films.  Check it out here.


That's all for this Friday.  Enjoy your weekend...I'm in Salem, Oregon through Sunday night at The Salem Art and Festival.  If you're around, drop by and say hello.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Consider mother! / More on Ken Burns' Vietnam Doc / Cannes Adds Polanski and More / Movers and Shakers

Good Monday to you...if such a thing is even possible...

CONSIDER MOTHER!

I have stayed away from speculating about the potential Telluride inclusion of Darren Aronofsky's next film: mother!  Aronofsky made quite the splash in Telluride in 2010 with Black Swan (after it had screened in Venice days before).  The film was nominated for five Oscars withe Natalie Portman winning for Best Actress and the film nominated for Best Picture and Aronofsky nominated for Best Direction.

I have been low-balling the chances for mother! to play in light of the fact that beyond Black Swan, Aronofsky has no other Telluride pedigree and his last film, Noah, seemed anything but the kind of film that you'd find at T-ride.  But...

The release date for the secretive film (no one seems to know much about the plot) is Oct. 13th...right in the post-Telluride, awards season sweet spot.  The film is being distributed by Paramount which, just a few years ago, would have probably meant no Telluride play but Paramount has (along with Warners) become a semi-Telluride regular. Paramount plays of late at TFF include:  Arrival last year, Anomolisa in '15, Labor Day in '13.  So, maybe...

Although Paramount also has Alexander Payne's Downsizing and George Clooney's Surburbicon on their plate for this fall (either, neither or both of which might be Telluride possibilities).

Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit posted an awards prospectus for mother! this week and the spurred my re-evaluation.  Take a look at that story here.

MORE ON KEN BURNS' VIETNAM DOC

Ken Burns at the LBJ Presidential Library (photo by Laura Rice/Texas Standard)

I've been highlighting Ken Burns' next documentary the last couple of weeks as it's getting a substantial P.R. push.  The documentary will bow on PBS on Sept. 17th which makes me think that some portion (or maybe all of it) plays in the TFF #44 lineup.

This past week, Burns was at the LBJ Presidential Library talking about the project.  Texas Standard provides the nine minute recording of a portion of the Burns interview from the presentation.  You can find the story and recording here.

Additionally, here's the PBS trailer for the 10 part series via YouTube:

CANNES ADDS POLANSKI AND MORE

Cannes' Artistic Director Thierry Fremaux announced the addition this past week of seven more titles to various sections of the festival.  Among the most notable are Roman Polanski's Based on a True Story which has been added out of competition.  Added to the Palme contest was Ruben Ostlund's The Square, his follow up to his critically well received 2014 film Force Majuere.

Ostlund's film and a new documentary from Barbet Schroeder, Le Venerable W, which was added as a special screening are probably the most likely films among the seven to be considered for TFF.

Indiewire has the complete story here.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

A couple of stories caught my eye since last Thursday's post and I thought I'd link them here for those who might be interested.

First, buzz that frequent Telluride guest Laura Dern might well be in serious contention for the post as President of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Should that come to pass, we could likely expect to see Ms. Dern at subsequent SHOWS as the relationship between AMPAS and TFF has been tight for a number of years.

That story was reported by Variety and you can peruse it here.

Additionally, Oscar winner Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) was profiled this past week by The New Yorker Magazine.  Podcast of that interview and the accompanying story can be found here.

There you have it for this Monday...I'll have more on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT to the BLOG

New Theater In T-Ride?/Independent Spirit/Oscar Matters/TFF 39 Films/Two Directors

Good Thursday to Everyone!

A NEW THEATER FOR TELLURIDE?

The Telluride town council appears to moving forward with plans to convert The Haney Pavilion in Town Park to an enclosed facility (with financial help from the Festival) which is intended to have it ready as a new theater space for the 5 day 40th anniversary festival next Labor Day.  Here's the story from The Telluride Daily Planet:

http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2012/11/26/news/doc50b393bbb660c659837852.txt

INDEPENDENT SPIRIT

The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced earlier this week.  Here's a list of the nominees via Awards Daily:

2013 FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINATIONS

BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie
Keep the Lights On
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to the director and producer)
Fill the Void
Gimme the Loot
Safety Not Guaranteed
Sound of My Voice
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rama Burshtein, Fill the Void
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed
Christopher Ford, Robot & Frank
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever
Jonathan Lisecki, Gayby

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD

Breakfast with Curtis, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Laura Colella
Middle of Nowhere, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Ava DuVernay, PRODUCERS: Howard Barish, Paul Garnes,
Mosquita y Mari, WRITER/DIRECTOR: Aurora Guerrero, PRODUCER: Chad Burris
Starlet, WRITER/DIRECTOR: Sean Baker, PRODUCERS: Blake Ashman-Kipervaser, Kevin Chinoy, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Francesca Silvestri
The Color Wheel, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Alex Ross Perry, WRITER: Carlen Altman

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Linda Cardellini, Return
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

BEST MALE LEAD
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce, Four

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Michael Péna, End of Watch
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yoni Brook, Valley of Saints
Lol Crawley, Here
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch
Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
How to Survive a Plague
DIRECTOR: David France
PRODUCERS: David France, Howard Gertler

Marina Abramoviæ: The Artist is Present
DIRECTOR: Matthew Akers
PRODUCERS: Maro Chermayeff, Jeff Dupre

The Central Park Five
DIRECTORS/PRODUCERS: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon

The Invisible War
DIRECTOR: Kirby Dick
PRODUCERS: Tanner King Barklow, Amy Ziering

The Waiting Room
DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Peter Nicks
PRODUCERS: Linda Davis, William B. Hirsch

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
Amour
Once Upon A Time in Anatolia
Rust And Bone
Sister
War Witch

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD – The 16th annual Piaget Producers
Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources
demonstrate the creativity, tenacity, and vision required to produce
quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted
grant funded by Piaget.

Nobody Walks PRODUCER: Alicia Van Couvering
Prince Avalanche, PRODUCER: Derrick Tseng
Stones in the Sun, PRODUCER: Mynette Louie

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The 19th annual Someone to Watch
Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet
received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000
unrestricted grant.

Pincus, DIRECTOR: David Fenster
Gimme the Loot, DIRECTOR: Adam Leon
Electrick Children, DIRECTOR: Rebecca Thomas

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The 18th annual Truer Than
Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features
who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a
$25,000 unrestricted grant.

Leviathan
DIRECTOR: Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel
The Waiting Room, DIRECTOR: Peter Nicks
Only the Young, DIRECTOR: Jason Tippet & Elizabeth Mims

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – (Given to one film’s director, casting director, and
its ensemble cast)
Starlet, Director: Sean Baker

Telluride connections included nominations for "The Central Park Five", "Amour", and "Rust and Bone".

Also I have included links to posts for the Indy Spirits from Awards Daily, InContention and Movie City News:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/11/27/film-independent-spirit-awards-coming-at-10am-pacific/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/2013-independent-spirit-awards-nominees

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/11/the-28th-annual-film-independent-spirit-award-nominations-announced/


OSCAR MATTERS

     AWARDS DAILY OSCAR PODCAST

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode9.mp3

     ROPE OF SILICON OSCAR PODCAST

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/podcast-talking-oscars-award-screeners-ending-of-life-of-pi-and-new-dvds-and-blu-rays/

     THIS WEEK'S "FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG"

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-voters-394080


     ROGER EBERT'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS (FROM HOS BLOG)

http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2012/11/and_the_nominees_are.html

     THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER DIRECTORS' ROUND TABLE:  AFFLECK, TARANTINO, VAN SANT, LEE, RUSSELL AND HOOPER

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ben-affleck-quentin-tarantino-4-394576



TFF #39 FILMS IN THE NEWS

     "HYDE PARK ON HUDSON" AND BILL MURRAY

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bill-murray-talks-fdr-comparison-395151

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/movies/bill-murray-star-of-hyde-park-on-hudson.html?_r=1&

     "RUST AND BONE" AND MARION COTILLARD

http://www.hulu.com/watch/428816#i0,p0,d1

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118062441/

     "THE GATEKEEPERS"

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/dror-moreh-q-a-the-gatekeepers-pops-the-lid-off-israeli-arab-conflict


TWO TFF DIRECTORS WITH ONE STONE



I loved Darren Aronofsky's "Black Swan" which showed at the SHOW in 2010 and I also loved Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire" and "127 Hours" which SHOWED in 2008 and 2010 respectively...so when I saw that this had happened...well...

Aronofsky and Boyle discuss directing in the same interview that Fox Searchlight had put together in 2008 when the two men were in the midst of "Slumdog" and Aronofsky's "The Wrestler" so I had to provide the link:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/darren-aronofsky-danny-boyle-interview-each-other-on-directing/?uid=6e9c63f1183d2627a911d0de9748ed1c04590c8c


That's going to have to do it for today.  I'll get a new "Coming Attractions" segment on Monday's post.  More then...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Cruise and The Master/Oz/World Cinema/Coming Attractions

Good Friday to Everyone!

CRUISE AND THE MASTER

The word has been around for some time now that Paul Thomas Anderson had shown Tom Cruise (reportedly they have remained friends after Cruise' performance in Anderson's "Magnolia in 1999).  Consequently, there have been a number of reports that Cruise, and by extension, Scientology,  wasn't pleased.

The NY Daily News explains:
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/tom-cruise-scientology-members-dislike-portrayal-a-cult-leader-new-film-master-article-1.1109376

Does this alter chances that "The Master" might be a Telluride film...well...who knows.  Cruise has been a supporter of TFF in the past, though I can't find him listed in a TFF program since 2008.  Interesting to ponder...


OZ

OK...this won't be at Telluride, but it does feature Telluride guest James Franco (127 Hours) and it looks kind of cool.  Above is the trailer for "Oz, the Great and Powerful" scheduled for release in Spring 2013.  Also, here's an accompanying story from Get The Big Picture:


http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2012/6/21/first-look-at-james-franco-in-oz-the-great-and-powerful.html


WORLD CINEMA

I don't know if you've seen this or not, but it's kind of entertaining and I swear I have seen this scene play out (after a fashion) at the Telluride Film Festival...won't give anymore away...(thanks to Kris Tapley and Dave Poland)

COMING ATTRACTIONS

I'm tossing in a couple of updates on previous "coming attraction" films.  Darren Aronofsky tweeted a photo earlier this week for his "Noah" project:
The Playlist has the pic and a lengthy story:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/darren-aronofskys-building-an-ark-noah-to-feature-crazy-demon-angels-20120712

And Jeffrey Well at Hollywood Elsewhere tweeted and posted about Terrence Malick shooting on location in L.A. for "Knight of Cups".  The post also includes a brief summary of what the film is supposed to be about:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/07/sasquatch_on_lu.php

More later...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Like Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

50 Films for Fall/Major Analysis/Coming Attractions

Good Friday All!

50 FILMS FOR THE FALL

The fine people at IndieWire posted a "wish list"/prediction piece yesterday about what they hope and expect will play as part of the fall festival lineups (i.e. Telluride, Toronto and Venice.)  It's fun to look at and drool over.

They specify Telluride in the case of these films:
"A Glimpse Inside the Mind of Charles Swan III" from Roman Coppola and...
"The Place Beyond the Pines" from Derek Cianfrance (and this becomes the second time in a week that someone has tried to connect "Pines" to T-ride...

Among the 48 other films listed that have the most Telluride "potential" (in my view):

[Trailer from "Hyde Park on Hudson"]

"Anna Karenina" (d. Joe Wright)
"Argo" (d. Ben Affleck)
"Gambit" (d. Michael Hoffman)
"Hyde Park on Hudson" (d. Roger Michell)
"Life of Pi" (d. Ang Lee)
"Love is All You Need" (d. Susanne Bier)
"The Master" (d. Paul Thomas Anderson)
"Quartet" (d. Dustin Hoffman)
"The Silver Linings Playbook" (d. David O. Russell)
"Something in the Air" (d. Olivier Assayas)
"Song for Marion" (d. Paul Andrew Williams)

I think that 3 of the above are really solid guesses...check back on Monday for my first "Ten Bets" of the season to see which 3.

Check the entire IndieWire post here:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/fall-festival-wishlist-50-films-we-hope-to-see-in-venice-toronto-and-or-telluride


MAJOR ANALYSIS

All week long I have been trying to parse the meaning of Pete Hammond's post at Deadline.com from last week in which he describes at least one :major" studio plying Telluride film programmers with their "wares" trying to entice T-ride into a programming choice.  That original Hammond post is here:

http://www.deadline.com/2012/06/la-film-festival-los-angeles-woody-allen-opens-2012-laff-telluride/

This week I have looked at Universal, Paramount, Warner Brothers, and 20th Century Fox and what films they are either producing and/or distributing that look like they're also positioned for an Oscar run.


Re-capping...
Universal is distributing has "Les Miserables" and "Zero Dark Thirty" (This with Columbia).
Paramount: "Flight"
Fox: "Life of Pi", "Won't Back Down" and "Lincoln" (with Dreamworks and Amblin, obviously)
Warners: "Argo", "Cloud Atlas", "The Great Gatsby", "Trouble with the Curve" and "Gangster Squad".

["Argo" trailer]

Going to go BOLD here...

I lean toward Warners or Fox and here's why...

Warners...If I'm the Eastwood people and I really want Clint to be in play for a Best Actor Oscar I can't ignore the recent past concerning that trophy and Telluride.

2011: Jean Dujardin/The Artist (and a near miss for George Clooney for "The Descendants")
2010: Colin Firth/The King's Speech
2009: Another near miss by Geroge Clooney for "Up in the Air"
2007: Daniel Day Lewis for "There Will Be Blood"
2006:Forest Whitaker for "The Last King of Scotland"
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Capote" (also near miss for Heath Ledger for "Brokeback Mountain").

I don't think it's a coincidence...

So if you're looking at what is likely Clint's last shot at Best Actor...don't you play in Telluride?

And there is some Eastwood/Telluride history.  He's been there before...and I always default to believing that almost everyone that comes once wouldn't mind coming back.

Fox... same logic applied to Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" and Best Picture.  Again, look at the last few year's of BP winners from Telluride:

2011: "The Artist"
2010: "The King's Speech"
2008: "Slumdog Millionaire"
2007: No winner but "Juno" and There Will Be Blood" nominated
2006: "Babel" nominated
2005: "Brokeback" and "Capote" nominated

3 of the last 4 BPs got a huge boost from Telluride.

If you're he Spielberg people aren't you tired of the near miss status of the last few years? "War Horse", "Munich", "Saving Private Ryan".  Plus the films that didn't even get a nomination for BP.  And then there is the Marshall/Kennedy connection to Telluride.

So there you are...

As always, I could be totally, completely, 100% wrong...and probably am.

COMING ATTRACTIONS

[Darren Aronofsky via movieline.com]

Where I feature a film in production that could be a Telluride palyer in 2013 or even 2014.  Today: Darren Aronofsky's "Noah"

Aronofsky brought "Black Swan" in 2010 and ended up with multiple Oscar nominations and a win for Natalie Portman as Best Actress.  So could he bring this epic about the Great Flood to the San Juans?
Here are a variety of links concerning casting and filming of the project...we believe it's scheduled to begin rolling next month.


The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/russell-crowe-liam-neeson-circle-darren-aronofskys-noah-biblical-epic

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/darren-aronofskys-noah-greenlit-with-july-start-date-russell-crowe-locked-in-to-star

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/douglas-booth-logan-lerman-set-sail-with-darren-aronofskys-noah-20120604

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/emma-watson-gets-biblical-with-darren-aronofskys-noah-20120607

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/an-evil-cloud-ray-winstone-looking-to-take-villain-role-in-darren-aronofskys-noah-20120611

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/jennifer-connelly-officially-in-talks-for-darren-aronofskys-noah-20120618

Get the Big Picture:
http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2011/12/1/darren-aronofsky-wants-michael-fassbender-for-noah.html


More later...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Herzog Speaks/Fox Searchlight Has Shame/After Kevin/Noah!/Carey and Llewyn/20 Weeks to Oscar

Good Monday Morning (if such a thing is possible).  Just back from Santa Fe and a relaxing fall break.  This week is State One Act Play Contest (Saturday in Bixby, OK.  Bring it!)

HERZOG SPEAKS

Telluride regular, advisor and gadfly Werner Herzog is all over the interweb this past week as he ramps up for the end of year release of his death row documentary "Into the Abyss" which appeared as a part of this year's SHOW.  Herzog can be found holding forth in a couple of places over at IndieWire.

Here:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/werner_herzog_says_independent_film_is_a_myth_and_7_more_ideas_from_the_fil

And also with Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/10/22/werner_herzog_talks_death_penalty_doc_into_the_abyss_the_myth_of_independen

FOX SEARCHLIGHT HAS SHAME

Fox Searchlight continues to be very aggressive in its plans to push Steve McQueen's "Shame" as we get closer to the meat of Oscar (and other awards) seasons.  I have to admire their aggressiveness on behalf of a film that will be a tough sell.  Despite the glowing reviews (including mine) the almost certain NC-17 rating and the raw subject matter will make this an uphill slog.  That being said, FS is reportedly going to push for Fassbender and Mulligan in acting categories (as they should) as well as Best Pic, screenplay and director.  FS (as one of the blogs listed below has said) may be the best suited outfit to champion this film in light of last year's terrific effort for "Black Swan".

Here are a number of posts that reported this past week on Fox Searchlight's strategy.
HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/searchlight-on-taking-the-shame-out-of-nc-17

SlashFilm: http://www.slashfilm.com/fox-searchlight-embracing-nc17-shame/

ScreenDaily: (for BAFTA) http://www.screendaily.com/news/uk-ireland/momentum-eyes-100-screen-release-for-steve-mcqueens-shame/5033580.article


AFTER "KEVIN"

"We Need to Talk About Kevin" writer/director Lynne Ramsay reportedly has her sights set on her next effort and it sounds, well...odd.  The Playlist (at indieWire) reported this week that Ramsay will adapt "Moby Dick".  Wait, I know that doesn't seem all that odd...here's the kicker...she will reportedly set the film in space...
"Moby Dick in Space"...really.  Take a look at the story form The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/lynne_ramsays_next_film_is_a_science-fiction_take_on_moby_dick

NOAH!

News from here and there this week about Darren Aronofsky's "Noah" project (Aronofsky was at Telluride last year with the aforementioned "Black Swan").
The Playlist has some hints about what the film might look like based on graphic novel images.  find that here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/darren_aronofskys_noah_might_look_like_this_new_pictures_from_the_graphic_n

And also at Rope of Silicon here:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/darren-aronofsky-noah-graphic-novel-previewtranslated/

MORE LLWEYN DAVIS  (and I think it's exciting news)

Last week we reported that the Coen Brothers had found their actor for the title role in their low budget indie pic "Inside Llewyn Davis" based, at least to some extent, on Dave Van Ronk and the folk music scene in NYC in the early 60's.  That casting tidbit was Oscar Issac from (among other titles) "Drive".  Now The Playlist reports that the Coens have cast the female lead (and if you've seen "Drive", this may make your eyes cross a little) and that is Carey Mulligan.  Mulligan and Issac were husband and wife in "Drive".

Since her appearance in "An Education" my appreciation for Ms. Mulligan has grown and grown and, as many of you know, I'm all about her performance in "Shame".  So I am very excited to see what she and the Coens do together.

Here's a link to Carey Mulligan casting news via The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/carey_mulligan_joins_coens_inside_llewyn_davis_spike_jonzes_new_film_starri

20 WEEKS TO OSCAR

David Poland has his new Oscar forecast up at Movie City News.  Check it here:
http://moviecitynews.com/2011/10/20-weeks-to-oscar-20w2o-charts-october-23-2011-2/

Late Breaking News/Ten(+) Bets/Kevin's Trailer/Darren Aron-NOAH-sky/My Friend Marlon

Good Morning America!

Back to a real job today for this guy.  Teaching Inservice today and tomorrow.  Classes start Wednesday.
Also...pseudo-waiting...

The 38th Telluride Film Festival starts in 18 days...

LATE BREAKING NEWS

Two items making Telluride connected news late last night.:

1) Ioncinema.com baldly claims what I have expected for some time and that is that Werner Herzog's documentary "Into the Abyss" will play T-ride.  No surprise there.



and 2) Film critic and Telluride regular (and past Silver Medallion recipient) Leonard Maltin had surgery for a detached retina yesterday in El Paso, TX.  Wishing you a speedy recovery, Mr. Maltin!


TEN (+) BETS

There's some chance that we see W.E.

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) The Descendants
2) Gazing Into the Abyss
3) A Trip to the Moon
4) The Artist
5) We Have to Talk About Kevin
6) Le Havre
7) Prohibition
8) Drive
9) Shame
10) The Kid with a Bike/Dark Horse (tie)

This week's Ten Bets:

1) The Descendants
2) Into the Abyss
3) The Artist
4) A Trip to the Moon
5) We Have to Talk About Kevin
6) Le Havre
7) Prohibition
8) Shame
9) Drive
10) The Kid with a Bike

Here's the "+"
11) Dark Horse
12) The Birds Upstairs
13) The Skin I Live In
14) The Lady
15) W.E.
16) The Ides of March
17) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
18) Albert Nobbs
19) Coriolanus
20) A Dangerous Method

Note: Kris Tapley at Incontention.com in his July 28th Telluride spec piece listed three Sundance films as possibles, but because they already appeared in Park City, I'm doubtful that they will be in T-ride.  The three are: "Take Shelter," "Like Crazy" and "Martha Marcy May Marlene."

Now that we're down to less than three weeks, I may update the "Ten Bets" list with more frequency than once a week depending what oozes out that I can latch onto.


KEVIN'S ENGLISH TRAILER

A lot of buzz surrounding Lynne Ramsay's "We Need to Talk About Kevin" this last week including a post from the weekend from First Showing.net for the film's U.K. trailer.  Tilda Swinton and John C. Reilly star.  The trailer looks appropriately chilling and kind of creepy.  "Kevin" remains at #5 on this week's "Ten Bets."

Here's the link:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2011/must-watch-we-need-to-talk-about-kevin-official-uk-trailer-lands/

Kevin's IMDb page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1242460/

DARREN ARONOFSKY AND NOAH

Earlier this summer I passed on the news that Darren Aronofsky (director of last year's TFF#37 sensation and multi-Oscar nominated "Black Swan"--Natalie Portman winning Best Actress) was  tackling the Biblical story of Noah as his next project.  Because it's Aronofsky and because "Swan" had such a successful run last year, you have to include "Noah" as a future Telluride possibility at least for the time being.

Get the Big Picture.com posted a fairly substantial speculative piece about that "Noah" project this weekend.  You can take a look at that post here:
http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2011/8/13/we-can-only-speculate-what-noah-will-be-like-under-darren-ar.html?utm

Aronofsky's IMDb page is here:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0004716/


MY FRIEND MARLON

One of the most viewed posts that I put up this summer included my pictures of me and film legend Marlon Brando.  It was fun to relive that two day period when the double Oscar winner and arguably the finest screen actor of all time was in Weatherford, OK.

So, naturally, when I saw the post this week from Open Culture.com that included Brando's screen test for "Rebel Without a Cause" I had to put a link to it here on my blog.  Not only because it's really cool, but also because it gave me another excuse to put up the Brando and me photo...

Here's the link to Brando's screen test (which, of course, was unsuccessful. Some kid named James Dean got the role  The article also has a link to Dean's screen test):
http://www.openculture.com/2011/08/marlon_brando_screen_tests_for_irebel_without_a_causei.html

Brando's IMDb page:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000008/

Rebel's IMDb page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0048545/



FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER:
http://twitter.com/#!/@Gort2

Peter Falk/Small World/Danny Boyle!/More Beatty

RIP Peter Falk (1927-2011)..."As you wish..."


Sorry for the late post today...busy, busy!

IT'S A SMALL WORLD

You know, I've always heard the cliche that Hollywood is a small town and everybody knows everybody in the "Biz" but I've always kind of thought that that statement was probably more apocryphal than real.  However, in the last month I've started to thunk there's more truth to the claim than I thought possible.  Allow me to explicate...(and all of this revolves around my good fortune to get to play at the Telluride Film Festival for the past five years).

1) Made a friend  (Casey Twenter..."Hi Casey, if you're reading this") who is an aspiring screenwriter after he reached out to me following TFF #36.  You've read about his project in this space the last couple of weeks.  "Rudderless" is the screenplay currently set to be the directorial debut for Oscar nominated actor William H. Macy (remember this for later).  Casey has been kind enough to keep me in the loop and correspond over the past 2 years as this project has been moving forward.  It's been fun.  This week, we were catching up and as a part of that conversation, he asked me if I had seen or heard anything about a film called "Girlfriend".

2) Last year at TFF #37 I sat next to and struck up a friendly conversation with a fellow named Seth Chatfield (Hi Seth, if you're reading this).  I asked Seth the normal..."What do you do?  Why you here?" type questions.  Seth said he's there as part of a group that's the producing team for a film that's going to debut  a week or so later at Toronto.  The film..."Girlfriend".  So, as you might imagine, when Casey asked me about it yesterday, I was stunned..."What are the chances?"  I thought.  Seth and I have also kept up something of a correspondence the last ten months.  "Girlfriend" was well received at Toronto and has its premiere in NYC on July 15.  But wait, there's more...

3) Another friendship I forged a couple of years back came as a result of being on line for some film with  my mom and dad and as we were waiting we struck up a pleasant conversation with a nice couple from California.  Again, asked them the routine questions.  She says he's an editor and director.  She's an arts advocate.  We smile and nod.  My wife and I teach arts in the public schools.  We have a very nice conversation about that and what films might be "sneaked" later in the weekend.  They seem to know some things.  So, I get back to the room that evening and curiosity forces me to search the IMDB.  He turns out to be the real deal and I feel like an idiot that I had no idea (at the time, I do now).  His name: Mark Helfrich (her name: Alexandra.  "Hi Mark and Alexandra, if you're reading this").  Mark has edited a ton of stuff...BIG TIME STUFF.  Currently he is editing "Tower Heist" the next big thing from director Brett Ratner.  Yes, he edits Ratner's stuff.  All the time.  His other editing credits include: All three "Rush Hour" films, "Red Dragon," "X-Men: The Last Stand," and the original "Scary Movie" among others.  He has directed for television and the feature film "Good Luck Chuck." (remember this for later as well).  Mark and Alexandra and I have also kept in touch over the past two years...

4) Most readers know that I am a speech/debate/drama teacher and have been for a good long time.  I have former student who has just graduated from college and is working to set aside money and head for the west coast in January.  She's interning this summer  in Oklahoma City with a local casting director and as a result has gotten extra work on the Nick Cassavetes film that is lensing in that vicinity.  It's title: "Yellow."  As a part of all that she met the casting director, a fellow named Matthew Barry.  He has along list of credits including casting for...wait for it..."Good Luck Chuck".  Yeah...I know.  Mark confirmed it was the same guy late last week.  Also, "Yellow" features, among others, Sienna Miller.  Sienna just dropped out of the film adaptation of Elmore Leonard's "Freaky Deaky".  Also dropping out...wait for it...William H. Macy.  Again...I know.

5) And finally, I got asked to review a new independent film this week by writer/director Kenton Bartlett. The film is called "Missing Pieces" and features, among others, Melora Walters perhaps best known for roles in two Paul Thomas Anderson films "Boogie Nights" which I like and "Magnolia" which I love.  Both films co-star...William H. Macy.  And as a topper, I sat behind Paul Thomas Anderson at Telluride in 2007 in a screening of Noah Baumbach's "Margot at the Wedding."

Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon?  I feel like I'm this close (I'm holding my thumb and index finger on my right hand a half an inch apart) to knowing almost everyone in the film industry.

"Rudderless" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1798243/
"Rudderless" Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Rudderless-The-Movie/194390831736
"Girlfriend" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1470859/
"Girlfriend" Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/GIRLFRIEND/247774270511
"Good Luck Chuck" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0452625/
Mark Helfrich's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0375068/
"Yellow" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1588898/
"Missing Pieces" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1579242/
"Missing Pieces" Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Kenton-Bartlett-Movie/74342639138?ref=ts
"Missing Pieces" website: http://kentonbartlett.com/
Matthew Barry's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0058089/
William H. Macy's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000513/
Sienna Miller's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1092227/
Melora Walters IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001828/

BOYLE UP A NEW FILM FOR TFF #40?

The word last night was that Danny Boyle's next project will feature actor James McAvoy in a film called "Trance."  It appears to be under the Fox Searchlight banner.  All of these factors make it a film that should be considered likely as a Telluride prospect.  To wit: Boyle has attended the festival with his last two films, "Slumdog Millionaire" and "127 Hours," to great success critically.  McAvoy hasn't physically been present to my knowledge but he has had films with high profiles at Telluride recently.  McAvoy's "The Last King of Scotland" (for which Forest Whitaker won the Best Actor Oscar) and "The Last Station" (nominations for Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren) played at Telluride.  And Fox Searchlight seems to always be represented strongly at the Festival.
Sources indicate that 2013 is the prospective release date.   Of course, Boyle has his hands full currently as he is set to direct London's opening ceremonies for next year's summer Olympics.

Here are posts about  "Trance" from both Rope of Silicon and The Playlist.

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/mcavoy-caught-boyles-trance-superman-casting-terminator-talk


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/james_mcavoy_takes_over_for_michael_fassbender_in_danny_boyles_trance/


MORE DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT WARREN AND HIS HOWARD MOVIE

Rope of Silicon also has more details concerning the announced film from Warren Beatty that broke this week.  The picture will be directed, written produced and feature Beatty as Howard Hughes.  And maybe it's a comedy.  Check the story at:


http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/beattyhughes-update


"BLACK SWAN" COLLABORATORS COLLABORATING

Mark Heyman who wrote the screenplay for "Black Swan" is reported to have a new script that he's shopping around and has Darren Aronofsky attached to produce.  The Playlist reports that the film titled "XOXO" is something of a mashup between "Swan" and "The Social Network."  Heyman and Aronofsky are said to be looking for financing and distribution.  Assuming that they find that, you'd have to think that the finished product would also be on a future Telluride watch list.  No word on director (maybe Heyman himself) or cast.  Check The Playlist's story at:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/black_swan_writer_mark_heyman_pens_facebook_thriller_xoxo_darren_aronofsky/

Coming up tomorrow...more detail on the new Oscar voting rules...maybe clarification, maybe more confusion?  And also, more on Casey Twenter's "Rudderless".

Herzog on Death/Moneyball Trailer/Skin/Diablo's Dream/Noah

Charlize Theron starring in "Young Adult"

After a quiet Sunday, a number of items to pass on to you today:

WERNER'S DOC ABOUT DEATH ROW

Variety reported this morning that  German Production company ZDF has signed onto the Werner Herzog documentary "Gazing into the Abyss."  The doc is being produced by The Discovery Channel folks for American television.  But I would not be surprised to see at least some of it on the playbill for TFF #38.  Herzog is a constant on the Telluride Film playlist and the festival likes to have docs on the bill of fare.  As for it being developed for TV rather than theatrical release, well, TFF has peeked at some of Ken Burns TV documentary projects over the years.  So it wouldn't be out of line for Herzog's doc to show there.
The project focuses on interviews with Texas death row inmates.  The IMDB site for the Herzog project (where it's still listed by the title "Death Row') is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1843894/

MONEYBALL TRAILER

Last week we saw the first bits of the trailer for "Moneyball," the baseball film from Bennett Miller starring Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill and Philip Seymour Hoffman.  Here's the full trailer without the Entertainment Tonight stuff:
http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1810166670/video/25625800

The "Moneyball" IMDB page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

SKIN TRAILER

Speaking of trailers, here's the teaser for Pedro Almodovar's "The Skin I Inhabit (or "Live In"...depending)."  Thanks to Anne Thompson:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/06/20/trailer_watch_the_skin_i_live_in_teaser_is_crazy_sexy_scary/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=Twitter

Skin's IMDB:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1189073/


DIABLO'S DREAM

Oscar winner and former Telluride guest (2007/Juno) Dibalo Cody was a guest on a panel yesterday where she revealed that her dream gig/screenplay would be a Brian Wilson (Beach Boys) biopic.  Cody (who I met in 2007 at the festival thanks to an introduction from Jason Reitman) is set to see the releases of her next film "Young Adult" this fall.  It's another collaboration with Reitman and stars Charlize Theron and Patrick Wilson.  I think there's a reasonable chance that we'll see it in T-ride.  The Playlist has a nice post about the panel:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/diablo_cody_dreams_of_brian_wilson_biopic_teases_her_own_directorial_ambit/

The "Young Adult" IMDB page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1625346/


ARONOFSKY'S "NOAH"

Darren Aronofsky was the toast of last year's festival with his "Black Swan" for which Natalie Portman won the Best Actress Oscar.  Now he says that his NEXT BIG THING  may be his magnum opus...a re-telling of the story of Noah.  The IFC website has some interesting tidbits along those lines here:
http://www.ifc.com/news/2011/06/darren-aronofsky-noahs-ark-christian-bale.php

Telluride Film and The Golden Globes/TFF #37 and The OC

Colin Firth and Natalie Portman win Golden Globes...Oscars in their immediate future?

A great night for "The Social Network" as it won 4 awards, Drama Film, Director, Screenplay and Score.

TFF #37 participants won 3 Globes...Colin Firth/Best Actor-Drama for "The King's Speech," Natalie Portman/Best Actress-Drama for "Black Swan" and "Carlos" for Best TV Movie/Mini-Series. Telluride constant Laura Linney won a Globe for Best Actress in a TV Comedy for "The Big C." TFF #37 film "Biutiful" was upset in the Foreign Film category by Denmark's "In a Better World" in one of the few surprises of the evening.

Full film winners listed here from IndieWire.com

Best Motion Picture - Drama“The Social Network” - Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing
Best Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical- The Kids Are All Right” - Antidote Films, Mandalay Vision, Gilbert Films; Focus Features
Best Director - Motion Picture-David Fincher (TFF #35 Honoree) – “The Social Network”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama-Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama- Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Comedy or Musical- Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical- Paul Giamatti – “Barney’s Version”
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture- Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale for “The Fighter”
Best Foreign Language Film-“In A Better World” (Denmark) (Hævnen) Zentropa Entertainment; Sony Pictures Classics
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture-Aaron Sorkin - “The Social Network”
Best Original Score - Motion Picture-Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - “The Social Network”
Best Animated Feature Film“Toy Story 3” - Disney * Pixar; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Best Original Picture - Motion Picture “You Haven’t Seen The Last Of Me” from “Burlesque” - Music & Lyrics By: Diane Warren

Telluride Film Festival #37/The OC and the BFCA

Best Acting hopeful Colin Firth at this year's Telluride Film Festival

The Broadcast Film Critics/Critics Choice Movie Awards last night continued to anoint "The Social Network" as the consensus film of the year. The results (from Incontention.com and Indie Wire.com) with TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Picture: The Social Network

Director: David Fincher/The Social Network

Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN

Actor: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/The Fighter

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/The Fighter

Young Actor/Actress: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit

Ensemble: The Fighter

Original Screenplay: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH

Adapted Screenplay:Aaron Sorkin/ The Social Network

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

Best Action Movie: Inception

Best Comedy: Easy A

Foreign: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Documentary: Waiting for Superman

Art Direction: Inception

Cinematography: Inception

Film Editing: Inception

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup: Alice in Wonderland

Visual Effects: Inception

Sound: Inception

Best Song: IF I RISE/127 HOURS

Best Score: The Social Network

Multiple Winners: Inception-6, The Social Network-4, The Fighter-3, THE KING'S SPEECH-2, Alice in Wonderland-2

TFF #37-4 total awards. Now on to the Golden Globes tomorrow night.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #6- A Fortnight 'til Nominations

Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town

Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer

Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer

Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole

Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.

Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter

Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Hot: Zip

Not: Boyle

Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.

Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire

Hot: Rapace

Not: Zip

Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low

Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.

Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom

Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN

Hot: Steinfeld

Not: Zip

Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.

Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network

Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Damon

Not: Harris, Bill Murray

Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.

Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter

Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS

Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer

Not: Zip

Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.

The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):

Predicted Nominations:

6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter

5 nominations- The Social Network

4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS

2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR

Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:

7 combined- The Fighter

6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone

4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low

3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole

As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.

Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.