FLASH: Directors Guild/Oscar Podcast/Final Gurus/Tapley Sez/Online Film Critics Love Some Argo

DIRECTOR'S GUILD OF AMERICA NOMINEES ANNOUNCED

Ben Affleck/Argo
Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper/Les Miserables
Ang Lee/Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg/Lincoln

No nominations from the DGA for David O. Russell, Michael Haneke, Quentin Tarantino or Wes Anderson.


OSCAR PODCAST

Sahsa Stone's/Awards Daily last podcast before Oscar nominations are announced...

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode15.mp3

FINAL GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News Gurus of Gold charts...last before nominations...and it looks a lot like The FAC's...

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/01/gurus-o-gold-3-days-from-nominations/

TAPLEY'S PREDICTIONS

Kris Tapley's/HitFix-InContention/mostly final picks prior to the  nominations...
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/kristopher-tapley-predicts#18xdV7TIAfYrGXPu.03

ONLINE FILM CRITICS CHOSE ARGO

The Online Film Critics Circle go big for Argo...
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/argo-tops-online-film-critics-society-71656

More later..

The OC and What They Are Saying About Oscar

Can't wait to find "the way back" to Telluride for TFF #38

After a couple of days to reflect, I spoke with some of the people that I have met over the past 3 years since starting this blog. People that are Academy members and Industry insiders... and asked them some questions about the 83rd edition of Oscar. Here are some of the things they had to say...

Universally, there was keen disappointment in the "show" itself. "Lifeless" was a term I heard more than once and I couldn't agree more. A good deal of scorn was heaped on James Franco, who seemed to just give up abut 1/2 way through the telecast. Anne Hathaway escaped being tarred as heavily as Franco, but my sources weren't exactly falling all over themselves to praise her work either. One of my peeps said, "It was like an episode of SNL where none of the skits is working." Good point.

Reflecting the general consensus from the Oscar blogosphere, my sources echoed the notion that there were no upsets or real surprises. Aside from mild (and I do mean mild) "surprises" in Cinematography and in terms of The King's Speech not winning as many statues as some of my source folk (and I) though would happen (I.E. Art Direction, Costume and Score). There was a little bit of surprise from one source that Melissa Leo won Supporting Actress over Hailee Steinfeld.

I had one passionate defense of The Social Network as the film of our time and the one film that would be remembered down the road.

I also had a source that commented on the success of Harvey Weinstein in terms of the actual Oscar campaign for "The King's Speech." In recent years Weinstein hasn't been able to put that together like he had in the past (think "Shakespeare in Love"). But this year's success makes one think that he's found his mojo again.

Lot's of praise for acceptance speeches of Colin Firth and Tom Hooper. And one note about how funny Randy Newman was.

Disappointment? One source was dismayed that "Inside Job" won out over "Restrepo." Another just said he wasn't all that passionate about any of Sunday night's results. Another was disappointed in Best Animated Short Subject.

I asked everyone to look forward one year and predict a film that we'd be talking about the day after the 84th Oscar ceremony...huge response for David Fincher's re-make of "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo."

I'm dubious.

Coming Friday...the first look at what might play at Telluride's 38th Film Festival. Passes went on sale yesterday. My hookup says I'm solid for Labor Day! Counting down the days!!!

Oscar 83 Post-Mortem/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Move along, there's nothing to see here.

It was the Oscar Night of no surprises. The biggest "surprise," if you could call it that, was the Inception/Wally Pfister win for Cinematography over Roger Deakins for True Grit. And even that wasn't much of a stunner as Pfister had won the Guild award from cinematographers a few days ago. Otherwise, it was according to expectations.

The Clearinghouse was 17 of 21 in the non-Short subject categories. In the three categories where I personally differed from the Clearinghouse numbers, I was 1 of 3 (The OC got Costume and Supporting Actress right, I missed those. I got Tom Hooper's Directing Oscar right, The OC said it would be David Fincher). So, personally, I was 16 of 21...17 of 24 when you throw in the Short Subject categories.

Overall, both The OC analysis and I improved over last year's 14 of 24 so maybe we're getting better.

End of the night numbers:

The King's Speech-4

Inception-4

The Social Network-3

Alice in Wonderland-2

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for Black Swan, Inside Job, In a Better World, & The Wolfman.

7 Oscars from Telluride #37 films (TKS-4, Black Swan-1, Inside Job-1, God of Love-1)

The King's Speech wave did not really materialize, but The Social Network didn't/couldn't take advantage of that (except, perhaps in the Best Score Category). The biggest beneficiaries were Alice in Wonderland and Inception.

And...James Franco...No, Anne Hathaway...Yes.

Later this week on MTFB/The OC...post Oscar interviews with Academy voters and industry insiders. Check back in!

And Finally, It's Oscar Time

Labor Day weekend 2010 in the San Juans of southwest Colorado seems like a long, long time ago. Since our incredible experience at the 37th Telluride Film Festival, Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse has been tracking the possible outcomes for tonight's Oscar presentation and now it's time for the final pre-Oscar run-down of what we expect to happen after crunching numbers from Movie City News' The Guru's of Gold, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, The Gold Derby.Com and Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly. In all 24 categories (with TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD). And the Oscar will go to:

(Absolutely no real number crunching on these first three categories, so based on a limited range of "expert" opinion)

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: Madagascar: A Journey Diary

Short Live Action: GOD OF LOVE

Sound Mixing: The OC says: Inception...

Sound Editing: The OC says: Inception...

Visual Effects: The OC says: Inception...

Makeup: The OC says: The Wolfman...

And I have to agree.

Original Score: The OC says: Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH...

Original Song: The OC says: Randy Newman, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3...

Again, I agree that this is what will happen, but, you could see The OC wrong in both of these categories pretty easily. In Score, there is still significant feeling for The Social Network and Inception. And in the Best Song category, you can find supporters in the Oscar prediction community for any of the four nominated songs.

Foreign Film: The OC says: In a Better World/Denmark

And I will agree...but it is a tiny, tiny favorite with INCENDIES/Canada and BIUTIFUL/Mexico very, very close.

Documentary: The OC says: INSIDE JOB...

Again, I'm buying this, but it's also a really tight category. Serious heat exists for the art doc Exit Through the Gift Shop (and the attendant curiosity as to what Banksy might try in accepting...or declining...or both? Undoubtedly it would be entertaining)...and just as it is for Best Song, each of the five nominees has some serious Oscar prognosticators on its side.

Animated Film: The OC (and everyone on the planet that tries to divine this stuff) says: Toy Story 3...

Uh...Yes.

Costume: The OC says: Alice in Wonderland...

THE KING'S SPEECH is a close second in our analysis, and it's my actual pick...my first divergence from The OC.

Art Direction: The OC says:THE KING'S SPEECH...

Yes. But watch out for Alice or Inception...they also have a lot of support here.

Film Editing: The OC says: The Social Network...

I'm going to agree, but you can make a good case for any of the other four nominees and if it turns into a TKS Sweep...who knows?

Cinematography: The OC says: Roger Deakins/True Grit...

Again...yes. Deakins should finally win an Oscar for his great camera work. And it was impressive in True Grit. Possible spoiler would be Wally Pfister for Inception.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES:

Adapted Screenplay: The OC says: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network...

Not much doubt here.

Original Screenplay: The OC says: David Seidler/THE KING'S SPEECH...

Close to a lock

Supporting Actor: The OC says: Christian Bale/The Fighter...

Again, close to a lock...except if TKS is in sweep mode, which could force Geoffrey Rush into an acceptance speech.

Supporting Actress: The OC says: Melissa Leo/The Fighter...

The predictors have come back around to Leo after a brief stretch were she was perceived as having lost some momentum. But Leo has bounced back in the last ten days in the estimation of most Oscar pundits. Still, I'm going to buck The Clearinghouse. I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. And, as you might expect, here's the added caveat that Helena Bonham Carter could surprise here if the TKS sweep is more of a tsunami.

Actress: The OC says: Natalie Portman/BLACK SWAN...

Yes. And she should win it too. There's still some Oscar picker love for Annette Bening, but I don't think that it's going to happen for her tonight.

Actor: The OC says: Colin Firth/THE KING'S SPEECH.

Ummm...if Firth doesn't win, then the Academy needs to start looking for new accountants for the Oscars...because he only loses if they count it wrong or bribery is involved.

Director: Maybe this has become the hottest race of the night. Big support for a Best Picture/Best Director split in the Oscar pundit club. Also significant support for the notion that if a film is the Best Picture, then it's Director has to have been the best as well...and most years that is the path that Oscar follows.

The OC says: David Fincher/The Social Network...

I say: Tom Hooper/THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST PICTURE: THE OC SAYS: THE KING'S SPEECH...

And I agree.

If the OC is right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-5

The Social Network-3

Inception-3

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, True Grit, The Wolfman, Alice in Wonderland, and In a Better World.

TFF #37 total: 7 (maybe up to 2 more depending on the outcome in Short Film categories)

If I'm right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-7

Inception-3

True Grit-2

Toy Story 3-2

The Social Network-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, The Fighter, The Wolfman, In a Better World

TFF #37 total: 9 (and again, maybe a couple more in Short Films).

Comments anyone?

I'll be tweeting during the Oscar cast tonight if anyone is interested set your Twitter search for @Gort2 and follow me.

MTFB/The OC will have preliminary reaction tomorrow and more in depth response from my actual industry source types and Academy members Tuesday or Wednesday.

So, now, we wait.

The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37 and Tech/Doc/Foreign Oscars

Ten days...

Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.

Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.

Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.

Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.

Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.

Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.

Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.

Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...

Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.

Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.

Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.

Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.

Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.

Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.

Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:

The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).

Inception wins 3.

The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).

The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.

And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.

Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.

More next week...

Telluride Film #37, The OC, BAFTA and Oscar

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their 2011 winners two nights ago and, as you might expect, "The King's Speech" did very well. But there was a surprise or two along the way...

Here's the complete BAFTA run-down from Hollywood.com:

Best Film- The King’s Speech

Director - The Social Network - David Fincher

Leading Actor - Colin Firth - The King’s Speech

Leading Actress - Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Supporting Actor - Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech

Supporting Actress - Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech

Adapted Screenplay- The Social Network - Aaron Sorkin

Original Screenplay - The King’s Speech - David Seidler

Animated Film - Toy Story 3 - Lee Unkrich

Outstanding British Film - The King’s Speech

Film Not In The English Language - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer - Four Lions - Chris Morris (Director/Writer)

Cinematography - True Grit - Roger Deakins

Editing - The Social Network - Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

Production Design - Inception - Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat

Sound - Inception - Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick

Special Visual Effects - Inception - Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Peter Bebb

Make Up & Hair - Alice In Wonderland - Valli O'Reilly, Paul Gooch

Original Music - The King’s Speech - Alexandre Desplat

Costume Design - Alice In Wonderland - Colleen Atwood

Short Film - Until The River Runs Red - Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis

Short Animation - The Eagleman Stag - Michael Please

The Orange Wednesdays Rising Star Award (voted by the public) - Tom Hardy

Biggest surprise was that English director and TKS helmer Tom Hooper did NOT win Best Direction...David Fincher did for "The Social Network" in what was essentially an upset of the home team that was dominant in almost every other category.

It wasn't really a surprise that Geoffrey Rush won Supporting Actor but a bit of a surprise that Helena Bonham Carter did...even with the home field advantage she wasn't expected to win Supporting Actress.

Finally, the American Society of Cinematographers awarded its top prize a couple of nights ago to Wally Pfister for "Inception." That leads one to second guess the expected Oscar for Roger Deakins and "True Grit."

Coming tomorrow, The OC updates the Big 8 races...

Telluride Film #37/The OC and the SAG awards

Did you hear that door slamming 36 hours ago?

It was the door closing on anyone's thoughts that "THE KING'S SPEECH" might not be your Best Picture winner on Feb. 27.

After a week that had included surprise wins for TKS at The Producer's Guild and The Director's Guild, the SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) awards were thought to be the last chance to derail the juggernaut that was building. Some experts still holding to the notion the "The Fighter" or even "The Social Network" would prevail in the SAG"s version of"Best Picture" which is their Ensemble Award.

But when they opened the envelope, the TKS train just kept right on running.

Here (directly from the SAG website) are the winners from Sundays presentations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: COLIN FIRTH / King George VI - "THE KING’S SPEECH" (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:NATALIE PORTMAN / Nina Sayers – “BLACK SWAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: CHRISTIAN BALE / Dicky Eklund – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: MELISSA LEO / Alice Ward – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

Firth and Bale were not surprises. Portman solidified her chances as she continues to best what was thought to be her close competitor, Annette Bening. And in the Female Supporting category, Melissa Leo's win makes her the front-runner in a category that was thought to be the most fluid of the 4 individual acting categories.

With the Ensemble win, all signs now point to TKS having a big night at the Oscars. We're talking Slumdog type numbers (Slumdog won 8 Academy Awards). You have to think that TKS wins Picture, probably Director (DGA), Actor and Original Screenplay. Costume, Art Direction and Score are also likely. Unlikely are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Sound Mixing. Leaving Film Editing as its only chance for an 8th Oscar, and that's not terribly likely either.

Who benefits from the TKS mini-sweep? "Inception," which likely ends Oscar night with the second largest total number of Oscars and "The Fighter," which will be the only film with more than one acting winner.

Who gets hurt: well...you know.."The Social Network" which increasingly looks as if it will win one Oscar for Aaron Sorkin's script and that's all.

Next time on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse...we look at how the Oscar race mutated from September to now...and also, we'll start handicapping the Oscar categories for the winners on Feb. 27.

TFF #37/Oscar Clearinghouse and the DGA

Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild of America award late last night for Best Direction in 2010 for "The King's Speech." A whole host of Oscar watchers and critics are, again, dumbfounded this morning. Many thought that David Fincher would win for "The Social Network." Mmmmm....Nope.

The howling has been at a fever pitch for a week now. Beginning with the Producer's Guild Award to TKS last week and the "lead the pack" total of 12 nominations on Tuesday morning and culminating with last night's "surprise," The King's Speech" has been on a real roll...and it has the film "intelligentsia" up in arms..."How dare they?" has been the not-so-subtle refrain. Last night's DGA award, went the implicit narrative, will "restore some sanity" to the awards season. "Fincher gets the DGA," the thinking went, "because, surely, the directors 'get' the inherent superiority of "The Social Network." And that will also assure that the march of TKS to a Best Picture Oscar has been tempered and it's back to a real race...

And then, Boom!

A lot of people this week have been moaning that it's "Crash" beats "Brokeback" all over again...well...maybe.

But I'd submit the following:

1) I've been saying that TSN has been over-rated from the get go...I'd argue that it's overwhelming success with critics groups this past few months is at least as much a result of group-think and, really, a fear by some critics of an astonishing level of vitriol directed at any of them who dared to suggest that it might not actually be the year's best film.

2) As has been said in a lot of places, TSN certainly has a stronger appeal generationally to a younger demographic, and even older critics want to be regarded as hip...doesn't mean it's actually the best film or that it will win the Oscar...or should.

3) The "Crash/Brokeback" comparison stems, at least in part from the perception that the"Academy" is old and stodgy and scared of anything new or "controversial" and just doesn't "get it" which might explain why "Crash" won and probably does. But TSN "controversial"? Not really. And this week started with the PGA and ended with the DGA...NOT the Academy...I contend you can't use their results to paint that picture of the Academy..."the DGA doesn't get it?" Really???

4) Harvey Weinstein makes a salient point this week when he talks about "feeling" a movie...TSN celebrates its emotional distance...it's central to the film...how can anyone be surprised that that might not resonate with feeling, non-automatonic human beings?

5) Then there's this, maybe the majority of critics are just plain wrong...and make no mistake, I'm almost always on the side of critics...I live in a part of the world wherein the "celebration of film" is dwarfed by "what's on at the movies." Admittedly, I'm on the other side of the "generational" analysis mentioned above in point #2...and, further, I'm not even saying "The King's Speech" IS the year's Best Picture...I'd be inclined to vote for "True Grit." But, I have been pleased that the hubris of so many who had decided that it was all over months ago has been soundly shaken this past week.

"The King's Speech" opened (finally) in my town Friday night...of course, I saw it in September at Telluride...but I'm pleased to tell you that I'm going to go see it again tonight. I will be happy when it wins the Oscar for Best Picture in a month.

Telluride Film and The PGA/The Oscar Clearinghouse

PRODUCER'S GUILD PRODUCES A STUNNER!!!

Last night the Producers Guild of America awarded its awards for motion picture achievement and threw a big monkey wrench into the stately march of "The Social Network" to Oscar glory as the producers named producers Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin of "THE KING'S SPEECH" the winner of its "Producer of the Year" award.

This morning all of the Oscar handicappers are abuzz with whether or to what extent this changes the race. Personally, I don't know if this portends the downfall of "The Social Network" (hope so, because I've been saying for months that it has been hugely over-rated), but I do know that it just made the next month a whole lot more interesting and that a race that many Oscar prognosticator's had asserted was done...isn't.

Also winning last night were "Toy Story 3" as animated film and "Waiting for Superman" as documentary.

Tomorrow The Oscar Clearinghouse will be up with its last evaluation of the Oscar race before the nominations are announced on Tuesday morning. Tuesday we'll post the breakdown of nominees and assess Telluride #37's impact on this year's Oscar race.

Stay tuned. This just got a whole lot more fun.

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.

Telluride Film and The Golden Globes/TFF #37 and The OC

Colin Firth and Natalie Portman win Golden Globes...Oscars in their immediate future?

A great night for "The Social Network" as it won 4 awards, Drama Film, Director, Screenplay and Score.

TFF #37 participants won 3 Globes...Colin Firth/Best Actor-Drama for "The King's Speech," Natalie Portman/Best Actress-Drama for "Black Swan" and "Carlos" for Best TV Movie/Mini-Series. Telluride constant Laura Linney won a Globe for Best Actress in a TV Comedy for "The Big C." TFF #37 film "Biutiful" was upset in the Foreign Film category by Denmark's "In a Better World" in one of the few surprises of the evening.

Full film winners listed here from IndieWire.com

Best Motion Picture - Drama“The Social Network” - Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing
Best Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical- The Kids Are All Right” - Antidote Films, Mandalay Vision, Gilbert Films; Focus Features
Best Director - Motion Picture-David Fincher (TFF #35 Honoree) – “The Social Network”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama-Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama- Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Comedy or Musical- Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical- Paul Giamatti – “Barney’s Version”
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture- Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale for “The Fighter”
Best Foreign Language Film-“In A Better World” (Denmark) (Hævnen) Zentropa Entertainment; Sony Pictures Classics
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture-Aaron Sorkin - “The Social Network”
Best Original Score - Motion Picture-Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - “The Social Network”
Best Animated Feature Film“Toy Story 3” - Disney * Pixar; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Best Original Picture - Motion Picture “You Haven’t Seen The Last Of Me” from “Burlesque” - Music & Lyrics By: Diane Warren

Telluride Film Festival #37/The OC and the BFCA

Best Acting hopeful Colin Firth at this year's Telluride Film Festival

The Broadcast Film Critics/Critics Choice Movie Awards last night continued to anoint "The Social Network" as the consensus film of the year. The results (from Incontention.com and Indie Wire.com) with TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Picture: The Social Network

Director: David Fincher/The Social Network

Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN

Actor: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/The Fighter

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/The Fighter

Young Actor/Actress: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit

Ensemble: The Fighter

Original Screenplay: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH

Adapted Screenplay:Aaron Sorkin/ The Social Network

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

Best Action Movie: Inception

Best Comedy: Easy A

Foreign: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Documentary: Waiting for Superman

Art Direction: Inception

Cinematography: Inception

Film Editing: Inception

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup: Alice in Wonderland

Visual Effects: Inception

Sound: Inception

Best Song: IF I RISE/127 HOURS

Best Score: The Social Network

Multiple Winners: Inception-6, The Social Network-4, The Fighter-3, THE KING'S SPEECH-2, Alice in Wonderland-2

TFF #37-4 total awards. Now on to the Golden Globes tomorrow night.

Cinematogrphy Guild and Telluride Film/News from the OC

The American Society of Cinematographers announced their 5 nominees for 2010 late yesterday afternoon. According to Incontention.com they are...

“Black Swan” (Matthew Libatique)

“Inception” (Wally Pfister)

“The King’s Speech” (Danny Cohen)

“The Social Network” (Jeff Cronenweth)

“True Grit” (Roger Deakins)

Maybe the surprise "in" here is "The King's Speech" while the surprise "out" would probably be "127 Hours" or "The Fighter." This Oscar is Roger Deakins to lose.

Two weeks until nomination morning and the Golden Globes are coming up Sunday...a new Oscar Clearinghouse for the Big 8 categories is coming in the next 24 hours.

Tellutide Film/The Oscar Clearinghouse and The Director's Guild

The DGA announced their 5 nominees for Outstanding Achievement this morning and they are (drumroll please!)

Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”

David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Christopher Nolan, “Inception”

Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”

David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Left out: The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" and Danny Boyle for "127 Hours."

Come Oscar Nomination morning I think it's still possible for the Coens and Boyle to slip in and Aronofsky and Russell to be on the outs. But, realistically, this morning's announcement is a nice boost for Aronofsky and Russell...and probably hurts Boyle more than the Coens. I further suspect that Nolan, Fincher and Hooper are locks. We'll have an updated Clearinghouse for the Big 8 categories up this week.

News from the OC-More Guilds

"127 Hours" gets a couple of nudges.

The Art Directors Guild had their say yesterday with 15 nominations in 3 categories. Three Telluride #37 films get nominated. Here they are (thanks to Incontention.com):

Period Film

“Get Low”

“The King’s Speech”

“Robin Hood”

“Shutter Island”

“True Grit”

Fantasy Film

“Alice in Wonderland”

“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”

“Inception”

“TRON Legacy”

Contemporary Film

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“127 Hours”

“The Social Network”

“The Town”

Also, USC announced its finalists for its Adapted Screenplay Award. Only "127 Hours" of the TFF #37 playlist made the cut.

“The Ghost Writer”Roman Polanski, screenwriter Robert Harris, author (novel, “The Ghost”)

“127 Hours”Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, screenwriters Aron Ralston, author (novel, “Between a Rock and a Hard Place”)

“The Social Network”Aaron Sorkin, screenwriter Ben Mezrich, author (book, “The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook, A Tale of Sex, Money, Genius and Betrayal”)

“True Grit”Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, screenwriters Charles Portis, author (novel, “True Grit”)

“Winter’s Bone”Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, screenwriters Daniel Woodrell, author (novel, “Winter’s Bone”)

News from the OC: Guilds

Helena Bonham Carter and Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

The Producers Guild and The Writer's Guild announced their nominations today.

Producers nominated these 10 as Best Picture:

Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures

“Black Swan” (Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver)

“The Fighter” (David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg)

“Inception” (Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas)

“The Kids Are All Right” (Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray)

“The King’s Speech” (Iain Cunning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin)

“127 Hours” (Danny Boyle, Christian Colson)

“The Social Network” (Dana Brunetti, Ceán Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin)

“The Town” (Basil Iwanyk, Graham King)

“Toy Story 3″ (Darla K. Anderson)

“True Grit” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin)

Writer's Guild Nominees are:

Adapted Screenplay

“127 Hours”

“I Love You Phillip Morris”

“The Social Network”

“The Town”

“True Grit”

Original Screenplay

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“Inception”

“The Kids Are All Right”

“Please Give”

Of course there were a number of scripts that were ineligible for consideration due to Writer's Guild requirements that they did not meet such as "The King's Speech," "Another Year," "Never Let Me Go," and "The Way Back" among others.

What to take from these guild noms? "The Town" and "127 Hours" are widely considered to be in serious competition with "Winter's Bone" for the 10th Best Picture Oscar nomination. Today's nominations would seem to give them (Town, 127) the edge with 8 spots seemingly solidly locked with 3 weeks to go before the announcement.

Art Directors Guild and USC Scripter nominations are expected tomorrow...we'll see what they tell us.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #5 Pre-Holiday Edition

How many nominations for "The King's Speech" on January 25th?

Here's one more Clearinghouse in a big way before the end of 2011. TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

The Clearinghouse is using data gathered from Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience for this latest chart.

BEST PICTURE: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) Toy Story 3, 6) BLACK SWAN, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) True Grit, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) Winter's Bone.

Next Five: The Town, ANOTHER YEAR, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine.

Hot: The Fighter and Black Swan

Not: 127 Hours

Thought: The bunching at the top between "Social Network" and "King's Speech" could not be tighter. My current theory is that "Social" has peaked too soon and with so much unanimity (so many critic's accolades...) that "King's" will still win Best Picture. A lot of conventional wisdom says lately that "127 Hours" will slide off the list of 10 nominees and be replaced by "The Town." That would also mean that Danny Boyle would slip off the Best Director list of 5 nominees. "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" are both getting some good boost in the last month. It would also appear that the only other film hovering under the current ten likely nominees that has any realistic chance of stealing a Best Picture nomination is "Another Year." I'd be completely OK with that. As I have said in this space it was one of my favorites at Telluride this year. Certainly a better film than "The Kids Are All Right' "Toy Story 3" and, dare I say it "The Social Network."

BEST DIRECTOR 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS

Next Five: David O. Russell/The Fighter, Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

Hot: Aronofsky and Granik

Not: PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK (who fell off the top ten) and Leigh.

Thought: Again, Boyle may be out next time and Russell and The Coens are the likely candidates to get the fifth nomination. For my money it should be the Coens (but I haven't seen "Winter's Bone" yet, it's sitting on my DVD player as I write). In a perfect world there would be 6 nominees and Boyle could stay on the list.

BEST ACTRESS: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annete Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Next Five (well three): Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank/Conviction and 4 others tied at the number 9 spot.

Hot: Swank...who rejoins the list after her Golden Globe nomination

Not: Nobody really nuked since the last Clearinghouse

Thought: It's a two horse race Portman and Bening neck and neck (they keep trading the top spot on the Clearinghouse and are current separated by 2 points) and likely to be that way right up to the opening of the envelope. Personally, I'd vote for Portman. I'd also like to see Manville hang on for the 5th spot, but I have a suspicion that that's not going to happen. Nobody is seeing the film and (as I've said repeatedly) it's ACTUALLY A SUPPORTING ROLE! Realistically and probably the fifth spot ends up in Michelle Williams hands.

BEST ACTOR: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jeff Bridges/True Grit.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version.

Hot: Eisenberg

Not: Bridges

Thought: Increasingly becoming Firth's to lose (he has perfect score on The Clearinghouse). I think Franco's a lock and after that you have 5 guys shooting for the remaining 3 spots...and Bardem isn't in that group.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.

Next Five: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.

Hot: Leo, Adams, Steinfeld and Kunis

Not: Weist

Thought: The most fun category of the Big 8. It's fluid, and tightly packed. And full up with terrific performances. It's going to be tough to leave some of these women off the carpet on Oscar night. Leo and Adams are riding a "Fighter" wave. Kunis is riding a "Swan" wave. Steinfeld's "Grit" is finally in theaters and it's stunning and Bonham Carter just keeps hanging in. I suspect that they'll ultimately be the five nominees and that Weaver and Weist will be on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/Social Network, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town

Next Five: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Bill Murray/Get Low, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, Money Never...

Hot: Hawkes

Not: Harris

Thought: Bale's to lose. He's one point off a perfect score. I love Rush's performance in "King's Speech" but Bale is fantastic as Wahlberg's wastrel brother in "The Fighter." You really can't take your eyes off his performance. For my money you can have Ruffalo and Garfield..they're OK...but not in the same league as Bale and Rush's performances. The top four are likely nominees with Renner, Hawkes and Rockwell realistically slugging it out for the last spot. I think Harris's chances are gone because "The Way Back's" profile is so small as to be virtually invisible.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

Next Five: The Town, Rabbit Hole, How to Train Your Dragon, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer.

Hot: Zip

Not:Also zip.

Thought: So little movement here from the last Clearinghouse. The top five are pretty solid with "Rabbit Hole" and "The Town" the only realistic spoilers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine, Get Low, Somewhere, Made in Dagenham.

Hot: Zip

Not: Blue Valentine

Thought: Kings and Kids are locks. After that it gets dicey in this category with the next 5 listed films all real possibilities to get one of the three remaining nominations.

UNDERVIEWS:

Telluride #37 films have 15 of the 45 nominations in the Big 8 categories if The Clearinghouse is to be believed at this moment and another 9 possibles. There will be further nominations in the technical categories (one source thinks that "The King's Speech" could get up to 12 nominations by itself) as well as the Foreign Film category (Biutiful) and Documentary/Shorts categories... I still think TFF #37 could end up with 30 plus nominations.

And to repeat..."Social Network," Kids Are All Right" and "Toy Story 3"...over rated!

"True Grit, " "The King's Speech" and "Another Year"...see them now!

After the New Year (which we plan to spend back in Telluride...woo hoo!), The Clearinghouse will begin to include prognostications on the technical and other categories as well.

Have a great Holiday, everyone!

Follow on Twitter @Gort2 and Facebook.

TFF #37 and the Golden Globes

Here from Incontention.com is this morning's nominee list from the Golden Globes.

Best Picture – Drama “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network”

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy “Alice in Wonderland” “Burlesque” “The Kids Are All Right” “Red” “The Tourist”

Best Director-Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” David O. Russell, “The Fighter” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor – Drama Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”James Franco, “127 Hours”Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”

Best Actress – Drama Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice” Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”Johnny Depp, “The Tourist” Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs” Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”Angelina Jolie, “The Tourist”Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Emma Stone, “Easy A”

Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”Jeremy Renner, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Best Supporting Actress-Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Mila Kunis, “Black Swan” Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Screenplay-Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right” David Seidler, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours” Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Best Foreign Language Film-“Biutiful” “The Concert”“The Edge”“I Am Love”“In a Better World”

Best Animated Feature-“Despicable Me”“How to Train Your Dragon” “The Illusionist” “Tangled” “Toy Story 3”

Best Original Score-Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland” Hans Zimmer, “Inception” Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”A.R. Rahman, “127 Hours” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Best Original Song-“Bound to You” from “Burlesque” “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque” “There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” “I See the Light” from “Tangled”

And a few notes...

16 nominations from among this year's Telluride films...

The King's Speech-7 (the most of any film)

Black Swan-4

127 Hours-3

The Illusionist-1

Biutiful-1

Best Pic Drama-Boost for "The Fighter" Ding for "True Grit" (no Grit anywhere, and the HFPA usually loves the Coens) and "127 Hours" (but maybe not too much...it gets nominations for Actor and Screenplay, so...)

Best Pic Music/Comedy- This category is even worse than normal...(and I'm one of the 8 people on the planet that actually liked "Alice"). Further, if "Kids Are All Right" is a comedy, I'll eat my hat!

Best Director-Again...boost for Russell and "The Fighter". No nom for Danny Boyle, though.

Best Actor-Drama-The boost for "The Fighter" lifts Marky Mark Wahlberg into the Best Actor race. Up to this point the supporting players were getting all the press.

Best Actress-Drama-Halle Berry from almost out of nowhere...

Best Actor-Music/Comedy-Not a soul here who will play for an Oscar nom

Best Actress-Music/Comedy-Boost for Jullianne Moore who has been getting the lesser speculation as compared to her co-star Annette Bening. Maybe a bit of a boost for Hathaway.

Supporting Actor-A little surprise for Michael Douglas

Supporting Actress-Mila Kunis...how about that.

Screenplay-Nice notice for "127 Hours"

Glad to see "The Illusionist" in the mix. It's Oscar chances, though are probably still slim.

News from the OC

THR_Movies
'The King's Speech' Poster and Queen Bonham Carter's Oscar Problem http://bit.ly/dH39Ht

News from the OC

Colin Firth Will Get Oscar Nod, Says Tim Burton Arts Entertainment Epoch Times http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/46581