Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
As many of you know, I was denied "journalist" status for this year's festival. That happened over three weeks ago.
But, I have been asked back by Movie City News to participate again this year as one their Gurus of Gold. I'll be tasked with making "educated" predictions for this year's Oscar season. MCN Guru guru Ray Pride emailed me, as well as other past Gurus, last Thursday.
As you might expect, I accepted the invitation.
I'm not sure yet when the Guru-ing will commence but you can be sure I'll be letting you know here when I do know.
Incidentally, it's also likely that I'll be writing an occasional Oscar-centric article or two for another film-centric web outfit but I'm going to keep that under cover until that's more assured.
TRAFFICKING IN RUMOR
Sooo...I'm relatively certain that I have a line on another film that will be playing the 46th iteration of the Telluride Film Festival. This is one of those "All the President's Men" things. I have two independent sources telling me that a film that is currently NOT an expected title, is currently NOT on my latest Ten Bets or Bonus Bets list but IS a film that I mentioned before.
I can also tell you that this mystery film is curiously related to a film that we are very sure will play the fest.
I'm hesitant to name the film without one more piece of corroboration and I'm spooking around for that.
Should the film pan out, it could well be an Oscar player (at least a couple of Oscar prediction sites have the film in their early predictions list).
More as it develops...if it develops.
TFF IS IN MEN'S JOURNAL'S TOP TEN
Men's Journal recently published an article entitled "The 10 Best Summer Festivals in America" and making the list is the one and only Telluride Film Festival.
The article names TFF as "one of the most prestigious" film festivals.
***The New York Film Fest is supposed to announce the rest of their main slate films today at noon eastern time. I'll likely post an update here with the ramifications of that announcement as soon as possible.
***Jordan Ruimy wrote at World of Reel yesterday that Agnes Varda's swan song-Varda by Agnes-will play Telluride as well as Toronto and New York. The NYFF announcement later today may provide a confirmation. We'll see.
***Deadline reports that Gavin O'Connor's The Way Back (formerly Torrance) starring Ben Affleck has been moved by Warners to March, 2020. That likely means we can take it off the list of possible films for TFF consideration.
Here's the current Ten Bets with Bonus Bets:
10) The Aeronauts
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite
"Bonus Bets":
Bonus 1) The Truth
Bonus 2) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 3) First Cow
Bonus 4) Family Romance LLC
Bonus 5) Country Music
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Good Tuesday. Summer officially started yesterday. It felt like it here in the Oklahoma Panhandle and we were not remotely the hottest place in the country. Air conditioning..thank you.
WELLS SECONDS THE LA LA LAND NOTION
I wrote yesterday that the over-the-weekend announcement that Damien Chazelle's musical-La La Land as the opening film for the Venice Film Festival actually may boost its profile in as far as a play at Telluride is concerned.
I noted that 3 of the last six Venice openers have also made the trek to T-ride (Birdman, Gravity and Black Swan).
That notion got some support yesterday in a late afternoon post from Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere. Wells, writing about what he perceives, at least at this point, a somewhat lackluster Oscar slate of films, mentioned the Chazelle film and connected it to both Venice and Telluride. It's the only mention of Telluride in the article.
It was announced in Great Britain earlier today-Amma Asante's A United Kingdom will open the British Film Institute's Film Fest. This is notable for a couple of reasons. 1) The opener the last two years has made its first showing at Telluride: Suffragette last year and The Imitation Game in 2014. Additionally, the story from The Hollywood Reporter characterizes the screening as the film's European Premiere which probably signals a play at either Telluride. Toronto or both.
The film stars David Oyelowo and Rosamund Pike. Oyelowo plays the King of Bechauanaland whose marriage to a white woman in 1947 resulted in fierce opposition from Britain and South Africa.
News yesterday that some films that have been floating in and around my Telluride consciousness have been announced with shifts in release dates. Most notably Warners' move up of to Ben Affleck's Live by Night to Jan. 13, 2017. There is a good deal of speculation that it will likely get a limited run at the end of 2016 to qualify for Oscar consideration. What had been a film that I thought might be a 2017 T-ride consideration now appears to be off the radar for 2016 as well. Seems to me to be a very late debut for a film that would have to be ready to screen at T-ride almost four months before. It's not impossible, but it's probably not making it to the San Juans.
Also, we learned that The Zookeeper's Wife from director Niki Caro has now been dated for Mar. 31, 2017 which truly takes it out of consideration for Telluride both this year and next.
I have linked a number of posts about the shift in dates:
I'm always on the lookout for announcements of future film projects that seem to me to have the potential to end up in Telluride over Labor Day weekend. I'll collect some of the posts and press material when I stumble across that kind of thing and hoard it. Now that we're almost a month removed for the 41st edition of TFF, I thought that I might as well drag some of those out and post the some of the info that's been out there. So, without further adieu, here are ten films that have been announced that could end up at a future Telluride Film Fest:
1) "The Revenant". Director: Alejandro Inarritu and starring Leonardo DiCaprio. A revenge western. Reason for a TFF play: Inarritu. The Oscar nominated director has played Telluride with three straight films: "Babel", "Biutiful" and "Birdman". A couple of sticking points: Will it be done in time? It's set for a Dec. 25th release in 2015 and the distributor is 20th Century Fox which has a spotty record at Telluride at best. Here are your "Revenant" posts:
2) "Mr. Holmes". Director: Bill Condon. Starring: Ian McKellan and Laura Linney. Reasons it would play Telluride: Condon and Linney who have been at Telluride in the past with "Kinsey" in 2004. Linney has also been a Telluride presence in "Jindabayne", "The Savages" and "Hyde Park on Hudson". Additionally, the film is being co-distributed by Roadside Attractions whose TFF profile grew to three films this year and one of the Production companies is See Saw Films which has had a high profile Telluride presence in recent years with films: "The King's Speech", "Shame" and "Tracks".
3) "Trumbo" Director: Jay Roach. Starring: Bryan Cranston, Helen Mirren, John Goodman. Reasons ot would play Telluride: Well, there really aren't ANY. No history with this director. As a matter of fact, Jay Roach's resume is odd. He has a couple of quality HBO gigs under his belt: "Game Change" and "Recount" but he also is the director of such "classics" as all three "Austin Powers" films as well as a couple of the "Fockers" franchise.
The listed U.S. distributor for "all media" via IMDb is Bleeker Street. It's listed as exactly their fourth feature to distribute. The other three: "Pawn Sacrifice" (Ed Zwick's Bobby Fischer/Boris Spassky flick), "Danny Coliins" (from Dan Fogelman) and "Captain Fantastic" (from Matt Ross). So there's no TFF history there.
The film's production companies don't have any Telluride connection either. IMDb lists Groundswell Productions (no T-ride past), Inimitable Pictures (ditto) and ShivHans Pictures (the same).
So, why is it on my list? Because I think a Dalton Trumbo biopic starring Bryan Cranston in the title role sounds like a perfect fit for Telluride if it's well executed. If Roach is in "Game Change/Recount" mode, then I could see this being a part of the TFF #42 lineup.
Here's some of the stories that have come out about "Trumbo":
4) "Live by Night" Director: Ben Affleck. Starring: Affleck, Zoe Saldana, Elle Fanning and Sienna Miller. Affleck returns to a Dennis Lehane story for this film. Lehane wrote the novel that was the basis for Affleck's first directing experience, "Gone Baby Gone". This story is set in the Prohibition era and features cops and gangsters.
Why Telluride? Affleck and Warner Bros. cannot be unhappy with the way Affleck's last directing gig turned out. "Argo" launched at Telluride and went on to win three Academy Awards including Best Picture. That's enough for me to think that they may want to try the same path in 2015 or 2016 (IMDb lists its domestic release on Oct. 7, 2016 but a number of the posts you'll look at below say it'll be out at the end of 2015). TFF #42 or #43 could be a very real scenario.
5) Danny Boyle's next project...Boyle has a couple of potential projects bouncing about. There's "Porno", sequel to his acclaimed "Trainspotting" and then there's the untitled film that centers on the 1973 "Battle of the Sexes" tennis match between Billy Jean King and Bobby Riggs. "Porno" seems to be closer to actually being on the tracks to being made. Either way, it seems that Boyle would be a likely candidate to return to Telluride after very successful trips there in 2008 with eight time Oscar winner "Slumdog Millionaire" and then again in 2010 with "127 Hours" which was nominated for six Academy Awards. If Fox Searchlight gets involved, that would further increase the chances that we'd see the film in T-ride as they were distributors for both "Slumdog" and "127 Hours".
It's been rumored for awhile and though still not confirmed, it appears to be very close to that. We're talking the possibility/probability of Quentin Tarantino shooting seven weeks for his next film "The Hateful Eight" near Telluride.
You have to also think that if he does shoot there that he'd maybe want to play the film there as a part of TFF #42. I've actually seen a couple of people suggest that possibility in correspondence.
According to the linked story below from the Denver Business Journal, the film would begin shooting in the San Juans in December if all the pieces fall into place. Further, the film is being produced and will be distributed domestically by The Weinstein Company which just came off a triumphant set of screenings of "The Imitation Game" at last month's film fest. The film is planned to have a late 2015 release. It stars Samuel L. Jackson, Kurt Russell, Tim Roth, Walton Goggins and Bruce Dern among others.
The Gurus of Gold have been polled post fall festival season and just prior to this past weekend's kickoff of the New York Film Festival. They have "boyhood" at the top followed by "The Imitation Game" and "Birdman". Take a look at that here (as well as some interesting numbers concerning actors and bumps that may have happened as a result of festival plays):
New images and a new poster for Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" emerged at the beginning of the weekend. The poster you see above. Here are accompanying stories from Vulture.com and The Playlist:
Check here for the latest edition of Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn's Screen Talk podcast as the duo tackle the early info from the New York Film Festival and the ever evolving Oscar race:
If you've been reading this blog for the past couple of years, you've almost certainly seen my "Oceans 11" theory the past two summers. You know, that moment each summer when I go crazy and suggest an incredible string of unlikely scenarios that involve that cast of the Clooney/Pitt/Damon "Oceans" films.
Well, here I go again...only this year...even worse.
Start with Clooney himself...was tributed 2 years ago. Reportedly really enjoyed his own festival experience. He's on record saying he'd like to come back. Reportedly nudged Ben Affleck toward Telluride for "Argo"(on which Clooney was a producer) last year. That seemed to work out pretty well for all involved.
What's he got that could play? Scratch "The Monuments Men" which was reported last week to be unready for Venice. He is a producer on "August: Osage County". It has The Weinstein Company as its distributor. I wouldn't have thought it a likely Telluride choice but I was a little surprised that it appeared on the Toronto playlist last week...so not impossible. Clooney also appears in Alfonso Curaon's "Gravity" which, likewise, I normally wouldn't regard as a possibility but Kris Tapley at HitFix/InContention suggested that it could happen last week (he reported that Warner's team for it and Denis Villenueve's "Prisoners" will be on the ground in Telluride...ALSO SEE THE "WEIGHTLESSNESS" STORY BELOW). So, you won't be surprised that I conclude that Clooney could be in town with a flick or two.
How about Mr. Pitt? Seems like every year on about Tuesday of the week of the Festival there's a "Brad Pitt" sighting in Telluride. I haven't seen him yet...but that's not to say it couldn't happen.
Pitt is all over Steve McQueen's "12 Years a Slave". He's in the film. He's a producer on the film (as is T-ride-frequenter Bill Pohlad). Further, my "12 Year" vibe has gotten stronger over the last couple of weeks. I just think it's going to play. It's lack of inclusion for Venice (barring some late announcement) and its inclusion for Toronto make me feel like it has a very good chance to play The SHOW.
Pitt also is in Ridley Scott's "The Counselor" which I would love to see make Telluride's list but which also hasn't had many mentions in regard to a Telluride slot.
So Pitt has a couple of projects in the "possible" bag.
And Mr. Damon?
He's in "Elysium" out this weekend. He's in "The Monuments Men"...see above...but hold on...he also appears in Terry Gilliam's "The Zero Theorem". Gilliam's been to T-ride before. Damon co-stars with Clooney's co-tributee from 2011...Tilda Swinton. The cast is led by double Oscar winner Christoph Waltz. So, again, improbable but not impossible.
As sort of a subsidiary to the "Oceans 3" Ben Affleck appears in "Runner Runner"...so...you know...maybe.
And then there are the other webs that spring from all of this.
Like The Coen Brothers...
As you know, I've been thinking that "Inside Llewyn Davis" might be happening for a few weeks now. It actually has made its way onto the "Ten Bets" list. I think the Coens might be one of the Tributes this year.
And they do have a place in the "United Clooney Theory". Clooney has appeared for them in "O Brother Where Art Thou?", "Intolerable Cruelty" and "Burn After Reading". Also don't forget that Pitt was the lead in "Burn After Reading" and that Damon was in "True Grit" for them.
Then there's the Alexander Payne part of the "UCT"...Payne and Clooney working together on "The Descendants". Payne is very likely to be in Tellruride with "Nebraska"
And finally, let's not forget Jason Reitman who cast Clooney in his 2009 Oscar nominee "Up in the Air" and whom I'm betting will return to Telluride this year with "Labor Day" starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin (also a Coens favorite of late with "No Country for Old Men" and "True Grit").
So, how much of any of this happens?
The most likely story is that "Llewyn", "12 Years" and "Labor Day" play. "Osage County", "Zero Theorem", "Gravity", "Runner" while all possible, seem unlikely and Clooney, Pitt, Damon, Affleck and Brolin are not in town. But, you never know...
WEIGHTLESSNESS IN TELLURIDE?
Jeff Wells and Sasha Stone sat down and re-opened their Oscar Poker collaboration on Sunday which included some talk of Telluride. The big news is that they all but claim Alfonso Curaon's "Gravity" starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney (see above) will play the Telluride Festival. Both seem a bit coy about it but they don't leave much doubt that they think it will play.
Both are also high on "All is Lost". Wells says he's "heard" "Inside Llewyn Davis" is on its way and that a Coens Tribute is possible. They also toss around "An Invisible Woman" as a probable choice for T-ride.
Meanwhile, Wells says he thinks "Blue is the Warmest Color" is likely but Stone disagrees.
Stone says "Labor Day" is sure and they both agree "Nebraska" is likely.
Yesterday I posted a link from Jeff Wells' Hollywood Elsewhere that declaimed the likelihood of "Inside Llewyn Davis", "All is Lost" and "Nebraska" as part of this year's Telluride lineup. Today add to the pile: Ralph Fiennes "An Invisible Woman". This adds credence to our posting for some time now that the film is a choice for T-ride going back to an English online newspaper account quoting Felicity Jones.
As we get closer to this year's festival and the very real possibility that The Coen Brothers "Inside Llewyn Davis" as a part of the program I am very attuned to all things Coen so it was easy to notice this news: Word early this week that the Coen Brothers world will come to television, FX specifically, with a program based on "Fargo". Coen Brothers semi-regular Billy Bob Thornton is reportedly set to star (and is said to be playing the Steve Buscemi role). Take a look at the story as reported from The Wrap and The Playlist:
Less that three weeks until the Oscar race comes to an end...and it continues to evolve... in some categories. Ben Affleck's win for direction from the DGA (see below) continues "Argo's" return to the top of the Best Picture chart.
NEW FAC FOR THE BIG SIX
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
+BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (2)
2) Lincoln (1)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (6) 7) Amour (9)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (7)
Comment: The "Argo" climb is complete as it returns to the number one spot on the FAC chart. Our numbers say it's a whisper thin lead over "Lincoln" but these numbers were crunched prior to the DGA award presentation to Affleck on Saturday night.
That means that "Argo" has swept the big precursor awards straight through with only the Writer's Guild and the BAFTA (British Oscars) awards left before Oscar Sunday on Feb. 24.
My expectation is that when I check in again next Monday "Argo" will have opened a bit of breathing space between itself and "Lincoln". It definitely has momentum at the moment. But keep in mind that Oscar voting doesn't actually open up until Friday. Things could still turn.
This all reminds me a little bit of the 2012 Republican primary...in that there has been a fairly constant change about which film (or candidate) has the frontrunner status. For the GOP, it was all about which candidate rose up to challenge and lead (even if for a small period) Mitt Romney. Remember that Bachman, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum and Perry all had the Big Mo at some point...yet, at the end, it was Mitt. Similarly, at various points the Oscar favorite has appeared to be "Argo", "Les Miz", "Zero Dark Thirty", Silver Linings' and "Lincoln". Now we've come back to "Argo"...and the question is "Is "Argo" Mitt? or could it still be "Lincoln"?
Suffice it to say that there's till enough time for an "Argo" stumble/collapse/backlash (another one, that is). For the moment, with less than 3 weeks left until the opening of the envelope, "Argo" seems to have reclaimed the favorite's mantle, and seems the most likely to actually hang onto it until Feb. 24th.
At the bottom of the stack, there has been a little increase in love for Michael Haneke's "Amour". Not enough to make it a player...but still...a nudge upward...perhaps actually portending a shot at Best Original Screenplay that's more realistic.
+BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3) 4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts (4)
Comment: The Spielberg lead continues to be solid though it will be interesting to see if there's any erosion in that perception as a result of the Affleck/DGA win.
Comment: Lawrence's lead has grown a bit and a race that at one point seemed like a throw down between her and Chastain has melted away. Chastain could still be in play, but as of this number crunching, the biggest challenge may actually come from Emanuelle Riva who is gaining ground and has squeaked past Chastain on the FAC chart.
+ BEST ACTOR
1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings (3)
4) Denzel Washington/Flight (4)
5) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (5)
Comment: OK...you can say it now. If anyone wins this but Day Lewis, it will rank as one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history.
Comment: The FAC says that Hathaway is as prohibitive a favorite as DDL is for Best Actor, but I'm not quite as convinced. I think Sally Field might still have a shot here.
+BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (2)
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1)
3) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4)
4) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings (3) 5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)
Comment: The category that continues to be the most unpredictable, mercurial and fun. Jones does a pretty substantial jump from #2 to #1...but PSH, DeNiro and Waltz are all in striking distance. The only thing that our predictors agree on is that Arkin is the odd man out.
DGA SAYS "ARGO"
The Directors Guild of America named Ben Affleck the recipient of its highest honor for feature film making on Saturday night for his direction of "Argo" despite the lack of a Best Directing Oscar nomination from The Academy.
The award continued a string of Guild and other major precursor/awards success (Critics Circle/Golden Globe, PGA, SAG) for the thriller that dramatizes the unlikely story of how six Americans were spirited our of Iran at the height of the 1979-80 hostage crisis.
The award also will end up making some sort of Oscar history since Affleck is not Oscar nominated for direction. Check out the links below for the details as to how unusual this year has been and is:
Sony Pictures Classics continues its dual roll out of Michael Haneke's "Amour" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone" with interviews stills and such. Here's the latest on "Amour":
And The Hollywood Reporter has an actor's roundtable posted with a bunch of the possible Best Actor (and Supporting) nominees involved. Find that here:
Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" is a very real Telluride possibility because it's Herzog. A couple of caveats...it's a long way away (think TFF #41 at the earliest) and maybe it gets made, maybe not. Here are a couple of items:
Good Monday to Everybody! Hope it was a good weekend.
The most hilarious tidbit I ran across this weekend was the news that John Cusack is putting together a biopic about Rush Limbaugh. And, you know, I couldn't resist. I have begun suggesting titles for the film via Twitter. Look for the hashtag #rushlimbaughmovietitles. No word yet from John Cusack's people if they like my suggestions...Here's one of them: "Life of (eating) Pie"...
FAC UPDATE: PICTURE/DIRECTOR
After last week's massive 10 category post to update the Film Awards Clearinghouse, I'm back to updating 2-3 categories per week. I expect to drop another full view of the Big Ten categories sometime between Thanksgiving and the end of the year.
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Lincoln (3)
4) Life of Pi (4) (see above Rush Limbaugh biopic joke)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) The Master (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) 8) Amour (8)
9) Hitchcock (9)
10) Flight (10)
11) Zero Dark Thirty (11)
12) Django Unchained (12)
13) Moonrise Kingdom (New-ish)***
14) The Sessions (13)
15) Promised Land (14)
Dropping out (again) Anna Karenina
Comments;
As you'd expect, a lot of stability as the prognosticators positions harden and a s there are fewer and fewer films that have yet to be seen (no changes in the 1 thru 12 spots). "Moonrise" probably is getting a little kick from its DVD/VOD release last week (I finally saw it and thought it was terrific...very Wes Anderson-y...which I usually like). Joe Wright's "Anna Karenina" is the film the suffers from that.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Ben Affleck/Argo (1)
2) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (2)
3) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (3)
4) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (4)
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (5)
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (6) 7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8 ) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (8)
9) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild (9)
10) Sacha Gervasi/Hitchcock (10)
Comment: No changes at all here from last week.
Next week I'll update Picture and the Best Actress and Best Actor races.
EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS AND TELLURIDE
"Amour" director Michael Haneke
It isn't a secret that there is usually a good deal of European cinema represented from year to year at Telluride. Cannes titles sprout like weeds and there is also usually a decent representation from the Berlin Festival. Those connections were forcefully underscored this last weekend with the announcement of nominations for the European Film Awards...Here's what I mean...
EFA Best Picture includes: "Amour", "Shame", "The Hunt" and "Barbara"..4 of 6 nominees have Telluride pedigrees...
Best Direction: Haneke/Amour, Vinterberg/The Hunt, McQueen/Shame (3 of 5)
Best Actor: Fassbender/Shame, Mikkelsen/The Hunt, Trintignant/Amour (3 of 5)
Best Actress: Hoss/Barbara, Riva/Amour, Tiesel/Paradise Love (3 of 5)
Screenwriter: "Amour" and "The Hunt" (2 of 5)
Cinematography: "Amour" and "Shame" (2 of 5)
Editor: "Shame" and "The Hunt" (2 of 3)
Production Design: "A Royal Affair" (1 of 3)
Composer: "A Royal Affair" (1 of 4)
Overall 21 Telluride nominations in these 9 categories out of 41 possible nominations.
Interviews with "Amour" writer/director Michael Haneke with Gold Derby and Alicia Vikander of "A Royal Affair" with David Poland of The Movie City News:
And speaking of "A Royal Affair" (btw...met Mads Mikkelsen at The New Sheridan on the Saturday night of the festival...very quiet and unassuming...which was great. He was flying under the radar, but when "Hannibal" starts airing on NBC with him as the title character, Hannibal Lecter himself, I suspect his days of U.S. anonymity are soon to be over), here's a post from The Hollywood Reporter with a clip from the film:
THE FULL FAC/THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE 2012 #2
For the first time since Sept. 20th I have put together a complete Film Awards Clearinghouse. If you've been reading the blog over the last 5 weeks or so, you've noticed that I have done weekly updates for Best Picture and then additional category updates have come in pairs every week. IE Update #1 was Best Picture and Director. #2 was Best Pic and the Lead Acting categories...etc. But today I have put together the bigger picture...all 10 of the categories that the FAC is monitoring as we continue the run up to the Academy Awards. As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates and this week I have included, were possible, the films original rank on the first full FAC in brackets. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT]
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
So here we go...
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1) [1]
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) [2]
3) Lincoln (3) [3]
4) Life of Pi (6) *** [8]
5) Les Miserables (4) [6]
6) The Master (5) [4]
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [5] 8) Amour (8) [7]
9) Hitchcock (9) [NEW]
10) Flight (11) [13]
11) Zero Dark Thirty (10) [9]
12) Django Unchained (12) [10]
13) The Sessions (14) [14]
14) Promised Land (15) [11]
15) Anna Karenina (New...sort of) *** [15]
Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom [12]
Comments: "Life of Pi" has become a serious player in this prediction model as more people have screened it and the latest TV trailer has begun running. The "Hitchcock" and "Promised Land" booms seem to have cooled somewhat. Again, I'm intrigued, but the trailers for both "Hitch" and "Promised Land" didn't make me immediately think "Best Picture Oscar" whereas the latest "Life of Pi" trailer did.
"Moonrise Kingdom", "The Sessions" and "Anna Karenina" continue to flirt with the bottom couple of spots.
"Argo", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings", The Master", "Life of Pi" and "Amour" were listed by all 9 experts.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Ben Affleck/Argo (2) (perfect score)
2) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (4) ***
3) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (7) ***
4) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (1) ###
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (6) 7) Michael Haneke/Amour (5) ###
8) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (10) ***
9) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
10) Sacha Gervasi/Hitchcock (New) ***
Comments: This chart may be a better reflection of the vagaries of the Best Picture race as it more clearly shows the heat for "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" and the reversal of fortune for "The Master" and "Amour".
Affleck did, in fact, achieve a perfect score...the top prediction in this category from the 8 experts that rank preferentially on their websites.
Others named by all 9 experts: Spielberg, Russell, Anderson, Haneke and Lee.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) [1]
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2) [2] 3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3) [4] 4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (5) [6]
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6) [N/L]
6) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (4) [5] ###
8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (NEW) [NEW] ***
9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (10) [N/L]
10) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (8) [7] ###
Dropping Out: Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Comments: The top of the Best Actress chart has been pretty stable...the bottom, not so much. Additionally, two of the experts still are listing Jessica Chastain in "Supporting" but it was announced at the end of the week that she will be campaigned for "Lead" for her role in "Zero Dark Thirty". So one could reasonably expect that she'll gain a bit more traction before the next Best Actress update in two weeks.
All nine experts listed Wallis, Lawrence (who had a perfect score on our last post for this category but missed it today by 1 point...Scott Feinberg moved her to #2 behind Wallis last week), Cotillard, Watts, Riva and Knightley.
BEST ACTOR
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1) [1]
2) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3) [3]
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (4) [4]
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2) [2] ###
5) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New) [N/L] ***
6) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5) [5]
7) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (8) [6] 8) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7) [7]
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New) [N/L] ***
10) Matt Damon/Promised Land (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained and Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson
Comments: John Hawkes' campaign has cooled a bit and Bill Murray's has fallen off the planet (and that's reasonable..."Hyde Park" just doesn't have much spark. Hopkins, and Damon both have benefited from the decision to put their respective films into play this year and Richard Gere has gotten some notice now that "Arbitrage" is in theaters.
Meanwhile, the race at the top between Phoenix and Day Lewis is about as close as its possible to be. They're separated by one point in my system. DDL is the top choice of 5 of the experts while Phoenix is top for 3 of them. Phoenix catches DDL because he's #2 on every preferential list where he's not listed #1. Day Lewis is not.
It will be interesting to see if Phoenix's comments about the uselessness of acting awards budges the feelings of theses experts in any way...whether they feel it will harm his Oscar shot or have no effect at all.
All nine predictors included: Day Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Hawkes, Cooper and Trintignant.
Dropping Out: Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (see above note).
Comments: Anne Hathaway's fall from #1 to #3 is attributable to her absence altogether in the latest listing from Awards Daily. Jacki Weaver benefits from the continued positive buzz building around "Silver Linings Playbook" and Ann Dowd, who has been getting some mention on the lower end of some experts predictions has finally generated enough heat to make the chart.
Receiving mention from all 9 experts: Amy Adams, Helen Hunt and Sally Field.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1) [2]
2) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (5) [N/L] *** 3) Alan Arkin/Argo (3) [3]
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (2) [1] ###
5) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (4) [8]
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (6) [N/L]
7) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [4]
8) Matthew McConnaughey/Magic Mike (8) [6]
9) Ewan MacGregor/The Impossible (New) [N/L] *** 10) Bryan Cranston/Argo (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: William H. Macy/The Sessions and David Stratharin/Lincoln
Comments: Nobody is hotter than Tommy Lee Jones right now. DiCaprio suffers some positioning because of Jones rise. And Bryan Cranston makes the list, along with Ewan MacGregor, for the first time. Cranston is one of my "Oscar Underground" picks this year. So the question naturally becomes...if he's on the list, can he really be an Oscar underdog? Ummm...yes, he can and is...
The remaining 4 categories were updated last week and so I have reprinted those results here
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Argo (1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Lincoln (4)
4) Beasts of the Southern Wild (3)
5) The Sessions (8)+++
6) Life of Pi (5)
7) Les Miserables (6)
8) Anna Karenina (7)
9) On the Road (New)***
10) Hitchcock (New)***
Out: The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly
+++ The Sessions is still receiving some votes in the "Original" screenplay category. I believe it will be a player in the "Adapted" category. So, for the time being, those votes are counted in the "Adapted" category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Master (2)
2) Moonrise Kingdom (1)
3) Amour (4)
4) Django Unchained (3)
5) Zero Dark Thirty (5)
6) Promised Land (6)
7) Looper (New)***
8) Flight (8)
9) Seven Psychopaths (9)
10) Arbitrage (New)***
Out: Frances Ha
Comment: A lot of love for "Looper" since its release. Personally, I'm not nearly as enamored of it as many are.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Life of Pi (2)
2) The Master (1)
3) Lincoln (3)
4) Anna Karenina (6)***
5) Les Miserables (8)***
6) Django Unchained (7)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)###
8) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###
9) Cloud Atlas (9)
10) Skyfall (New)
Out: The Hobbit
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Les Miserables (7)***
5) The Master (3)###
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###
8) Silver Linings Playbook (9)
9) Django Unchained (8)
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild (10)
No Drop Outs
And so the Telluride # 39 presence right now looks like this in the Big Ten categories:
Argo: 6 nominations and 1 more possible.
Amour: 2 nominations and 3 more possible (I am classifying its current #8 ranking for Best Picture as a "possible" rather than a nomination)
Rust and Bone: 1 nomination.
That's all folks... 9 nominations and another 4 possible. It's the least Telluride-ish impact since I started doing this blog 4 years ago. That being said, there will still be some tech noms here and there...maybe...and certainly we'll see some of the TFF #39 playlist emerge on the Foreign Language final five as well as long form documentary but the simple truth is that Telluride will not be as big an influence on Oscar this year as it has been in the recent past. All that being said, there's still a really good chance that Best Picture and Best Director will come from Telluride in the form of wins in those two categories for Ben Affleck's "Argo".
Other notes...if these predictions were true and nominations were announced today the following would be true:
"Lincoln" and "The Master" would each have 8 nominations among the Big Ten categories and others could be expected in the "below the line" categories. It seems, at least for the moment, that that's where the competition is going to be for the film the earns the most nominations. I give the edge to "Lincoln".
Next is "Silver Linings Playbook" with 5 nominations and another 3 possibles.
"Les Miserables" is looking at 4 nominations with 5 more possibles.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" is set for 3 nominations and has 5 more possibles.
"Life of Pi" also is looking at 3 nominations with another 2 possible.
Also with 3 nominations would be "The Sessions" with another one possible.
"Django Unchained" is at 2 nominations with 4 more possible and "Zero Dark Thirty" is set for 2 nominations with another 3 possible.
One nomination films that have a significant presence in the number of possible nominations that they might add are :
"Hitchcock" with5 more possible, and "Anna Karenina" with 3 more possible.
"Promised Land" currently has no nominations projected but does have 3 possibilities.
THE JOGGER AT KICKSTARTER
Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" is winding down filming in OKC but its Kickstarter campaign for additional post-production funds continues until Nov. 4th. Take a look here:
You hardly ever see this happen but it did this weekend. "Argo" won the Box Office for the first time since its release...that's in its third weekend...which is unheard of. Strong word of mouth and less than stellar performances from the new films that opened (including "Cloud Atlas") combined to give "Argo" the weekend. Maybe I mentioned "word of mouth" as a factor when it opened in 2nd place two weeks ago...
George Clooney's next directing gig? Bill Murray in it? Maybe also "The Artist's" Jean Dujardin? Sounds like a lot of Telluride connectivity in all of that and it could all be true asClooney prepares "The Monuments Men" a drama centered on the attempt to save art from Hitler's wrath in WWII. Clooney is listed by IMDb as writer, producer and actor. No one is yet listed as director.
Here's some coverage of the early moves toward making this film:
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