MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread

James Franco/The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN

If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.

THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER

Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:

Awards Daily

Variety

Indiewire

SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Pete Hammond-Deadline

That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The FAC Predicts Foreign, Animated, Doc and Shorts / The Film Stage Looks Forward to 2018 / Hope for The Other Side the Wind

Good Thursday film friends and a big shout out to any and all of you Sundancers as that film fest launches today.  What will be this year's Get Out, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name?


THE FAC PREDICTS FOREIGN, ANIMATED, DOC AND SHORTS

There are just a few days left before the live reveal of all 24 categories of nominations for the Oscars for this year.  That is set to happen early on Tuesday morning, Jan. 23rd.  In my last post I updated a bunch of major categories and included predictions on a number of feature "under the line" categories.  Today, I complete the circle with predictions for the remaining six categories not covered on Monday.

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Foxtrot
2) Loveless
3) A Fantastic Woman
4) The Square
5) In the Fade

Others: The Insult, The Wound and Felicite.

Comment: This could be the most Telluride-centric category of the bunch.  If The Insult could supplant The Square or In the Fade, TFF #44 films would be 4 of the 5 nominees.  Realistically, the only other category that might approach that is Best Supporting Actress and that assumes that Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water-possible) Hong Chau (Downsizing-possible) or Kristen Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour-unlikely) join all but certain nominees Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) Lego Batman
5) The Boss Baby

Others: Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, Ferdinand


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) Jane
2) Faces Places
3) Strong Island
4) Icarus
5) Last Men in Aleppo

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Dekalb Elementary
2) Facing Mecca
3) Watu Wote
4) Witnesses
5) Lost Face

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, The Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Dear Basketball
2) Lou
3) Cradle
4) In a Heartbeat
5) Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Eddie and Edith
2) Heroin(e)
3) Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
4) Alone-The New York Times
5) 116 Cameras

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


Added to the predicted total from last Monday's post, if The FAC is 100% accurate (and it won't be), TFF #44 films will collectively earn 30 Oscar nominations on Tuesday.  The average for TFF #44 over the past several years is 27.

Last year, though was an all timer for TFF as TFF #43 films racked up a total of 42 nominations.


THE FILM STAGE LOOKS FORWARD TO 2018

The Film Stage published their list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2018 last week and a number of titles that I believe have Telluride potential made their list.

For example:

#99-First Man
#95- Backseat (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film starring Christian Bale)
#94- The Widow
#93- The Little Stranger
#79- Kursk
#77- At Eternity's Gate (does Julian Schnabel return to Telluride?)
#71-Mid-90's
#67- Where Is Anne Frank?
#61- The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#52- Private Life
#50-Boy Erased
#48- Cold War
#46- The Sisters Brothers (does Audiard return to Telluride?)
#34- Sunset
#30- The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#28- Peterloo
#27- The Women of Marwen
#26- Roma
#16- E-Book
#11- Everybody Knows (does Farhadi return to Telluride?)
#8- Widows (Steve McQueen...)
#4- Maya
#2- If Beale Street Could Talk

The complete Film Stage post is here.



HOPE FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND

For months now, we have been anticipating the arrival of the restoration of Orson Welles unfinished final film The Other Side of the Wind.  We knew that the work to put it together had been continuing. 

The anticipation may finally have a payoff.  The Film Stage reports that a version of the film was screened this week.  The Film Stage tweeted that information last night (derived from a WellesNet.com tweet:

This increases the chances that we could see the film in eight months in the San Juans.  Fingers crossed.

Here's The Film Stage with additional information on the project.

That's your MTFB for today.  Come back on Monday for final Oscar nomination predictions!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

SPECIAL POST: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

Here's  a special post to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and the associated Film Awards Clearinghouse:  a round-up of Golden Globe nomination predictions for tomorrow morning.

The HFPA is set to announce their nominees for 2017's awards at 8:30am EST/5:30am PST- Monday morning.

I'll be posting a bit later tomorrow morning with the complete rundown of the actual nominees with particular attention, as you might expect, to the films that played as a part of TFF #44 (or #43 in a couple of possible cases).

I am passing along the picks from some of the best in the business.  All four of them think the TFF #44 films collectively will land nearly 20 nominations but there are some disagreements about how those 30 nominations will be spread.  Here they are:

SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY:

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical/Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Darkest Hour (3): Best Picture-Drama, Actor-Drama (Oldman), Supporting Actor (Mendelsohn)

Downsizing (3): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actor-Musical Comedy (Damon), Supporting Actress Chau).

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell).

Loving Vincent: Animated Feature.

TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44-20

Stone does not include picks for Foreign Language Film or Song.

Her complete picks are here at Awards Daily.


KRISTOPHER TAPLEY/VARIETY-IN CONTENTION

The Shape of Water (7): Best Picture-Drama, Actress/Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (4): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical/Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Screenplay.

Hostiles (1): Actor/Drama (Bale)

Darkest Hour (1): Actor/Drama (Oldman)

Battle of the Sexes (1): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone)

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress (Chau)

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song

Foreign Language Films (4): First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless

TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44- 20

His complete picks are here from Variety.


ANNE THOMPSON/INDIEWIRE

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Darkest Hour (2): Actor-Drama (Oldman), Supporting Actor (Mendelsohn).

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell)

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song

Foreign Language Films (3): First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot


TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44- 20

Her complete predictions from Indiewire.



STEVE POND/THE WRAP

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Director, Score.

Darkest Hour (1): Actor-Drama (Oldman)

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell).

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song.

Foreign Language Films (3): First They Killed My Father, Foxtrot, A Fantastic Woman.


His complete predictions are here from The Wrap.


Things I am hoping for in the morning (some more realistic than others);

Harry Dean Stanton gets nominated for the non-Telluride film Lucky.

Richard Jenkins is nominated for Supporting Actor for The Shape of Water.

Greta Gerwig is nominated for Best Director for Lady Bird.

Tracy Letts is nominated for Supporting Actor for Lady Bird.

All five Foreign Language nominees are from TFF #44: First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.


CHECK BACK TOMORROW MORNING FOR HOW IT ALL ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.

Reprising TFF #44 / Stone's Take on the Oscar Race / Shape of Water and Wonderstruck Views / Foreign Language Field Is Set

Welcome back from the weekend everyone...

REPRISING TFF #44

Was perusing Gary Meyer's Eat, Drink Films website over the weekend and discovered a fine wrap-up of this year's Telluride Film Festival from Risa Nye.  I have linked it here.

Risa hits many of the highlights of the weekend and specifically talks Downsizing, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Darkest Hour, Lean on Pete, Lady Bird, Jamaica Man, The Rider, Hostiles, Love Cecil, An Inconvenient Sequel, Wonderstruck, The Cotton Club Encore and Battle of the Sexes.


STONE'S TAKE ON THE OSCAR RACE

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone updates her Oscar prediction every Friday so I thought I'd take a look at last Friday's list and sort of get a feel for where this year's Telluride crop might be headed.  I t should be noted that Stone doesn't list all 24 categories as yet but does mention 14 of them.

Currently she has Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water leading the way with 10 nominations each.

She has Darkest Hour with:  Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes and Makeup.

The Shape of Water would have these nominations: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes and Makeup.

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird would land three nominations: Picture, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes gets a nomination for Emma Stone for Best Actress.

Hostiles gets a nomination for Adapted Screenplay as does Wonderstruck.

Faces/Places gets nominated for Documentary Feature.

Loving Vincent gets a nom for Animated Feature.

She also lists "Contenders", films/performers that she doesn't currently list as nominees but which could get in. 

That potential exists for other nominations for:

The Shape of Water: Supporting Actor (Shannon)

Lady Bird: Direction, Actress

Battle of the Sexes: Picture, Direction

Hostiles: Picture

Wonderstruck: Picture, Direction

Downsizing: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool: Actress

The complete "Awards Daily Predictions Friday" post is here.
 

SHAPE OF WATER AND WONDERSTRUCK

We got a new "inside look" at Del Toro's The Shape of Water this weekend from SlashFilm.  The story and the video are both here.

Additionally, we also got a new clip from Todd Haynes Wonderstruck that runs just over four minutes.  The new clip is below from YouTube:

The Shape of Water opens on Dec. 8 and Wonderstruck opens on Oct. 20.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILED OS SET

The deadline has passed for the submission of films for consideration for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar.  The Playlist reports that a record 92 nations submitted films for consideration.  

Among them are five films that played as a part of the TFF #44 lineup:

First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Foxtrot (Israel)

The Insult (Lebanon)

Loveless (Russia)

The complete list and The Playlist story are here.

That's your MTFB for this Monday...more on Thursday.

 EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Foreign Language Field Grows / Views of Downsizing and First They Killed My Father / Lady Bird Flies a Little Earlier / More Harry Dean Stanton Goodness / Hostiles: Still No Distrib But a Trip to Rome

Good Thursday Film Fans...



FOREIGN LANGUAGE FIELD GROWS

Thus week Russia announced that its official entrant into Oscar's Best Foreign Language race will be Andrey Zvyaginstev's Loveless.  The choice is a, perhaps, a bit of a surprise because the film, as was Zyvaginstev's previous Oscar nominated Leviathan, offers a critique of modern day Russia.

The film had a great response at Cannes and Telluride did nothing to diminish that.  Loveless will screen at the London, Hampton and Mill Valley Film Fests soon.
 
Other TFF #44 films in announced for the FLF race:

Cambodia: First They Killed More Father
Chile: A Fantastic Woman
Israel: Foxtrot
Lebanon: The Insult

Other non-TFF #44 films of note announced:

Austria: Happy End
France: BPM
Poland: Spoor
Sweden: The Square


Details and a complete list can be found here from Awards Watch.


VIEWS OF DOWNSIZING AND FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER

This week we were treated to a new clip from Alexander Payne's Downsizing and a new trailer for Angelina Jolie's Oscar Foreign Language contender First They Killed My Father.

Downsizing is set to open in the U.S. on Dec. 22nd:

Meanwhile, First They Killed My Father has begun screening on Netflix on Sept. 15th.  The film was theatrically released as well:

Both videos are posted via YouTube.


LADY BIRD FLIES A WEEK EARLIER

A24 has announced that they are moving the initial limited release of Greta Gerwig's Telluride smash, Lady Bird up a week to Nov. 10th.  The film had been set for Nov. 17th and will go wider that weekend and even wider as Thanksgiving weekend.

Details and the story are here from Deadline.com.



MORE HARRY DEAN STANTON GOODNESS

The MTFB push to get Harry Dean Stanton into the awards conversation for his final film, Lucky continues today with a couple of articles from this week.  The film opens tomorrow in limited release in New York and Los Angeles.

First, The Hollywood Reporter had this story this week that focused on a gathering of a number of his close friends in Stanton's s favorite L.A. watering hole.

And Variety filed this report with the cast and crew of Lucky celebrating the L.A. premiere of the film.


HOSTILES: STILL NO DISTRIBUTOR BUT A TRIP TO ROME

As of my typing this on Thursday morning Scott Cooper's Hostiles is still without a distributor.  The name Netflix keeps buzzing about but there's nothing solid.  Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter says that the film will open the Rome Film Fest on Oct. 26th.

That report is here.


Last note for the day is that we are expecting a Darkest Hour trailer later today.  I'll be looking for that.


Until Monday, my friends...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The People's Telluride 2017 / Official Downsizing Trailer / Awards Daily Oscar Podcasts- All This and the Oscars Too-Have Begun / Foreign Language Oscar Candidates / Jolie's Film Gets an Oscar Run

Welcome back to MTFB for this Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the sixth consecutive Telluride Film Festival I have solicited film ratings from the readers of this space for the films they saw last week.  This year I had responses from more than 40 film patrons.  It has been said that TFF fans are some of the most discerning film goers on the world and I think that the results of this poll over the past few years bares that out.  Up until last year the film that finished as the #2 People's film went on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.  Moonlight upset that apple cart for 2016 by topping The People's chart (it edged out La La Land by 4/100ths of a point) and then winning Best Picture.

Here's your brief People's history of the top three films for each year:

2012:

1) Stories We Tell- 4.80
2) Argo- 4.75
3) The Attack- 4.70

2013:

1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)

2014:

1) The Imitation Game (4.73)
2) Birdman (4.46)
3) Wild Tales (4.23)

2015:

1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)

2016:

1) Moonlight (4.37)
2) La La Land (4.33)
3) Maudie (4.29)

And now, the 2017 People's Telluride results...16 films received enough responses to be included in the poll...

1) Lady Bird (4.38)
2) The Shape of Water (4.22)
3) Darkest Hour (4.04)
4) Hostiles (3.99)
5) Faces Places (3.71)
6) Battle of the Sexes (3.68)
7) Lean on  Pete (3.66)
8) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3.57)
9) The Other Side of Hope (3.45)
10) Wonderstruck (3.43)
11) The Rider (3.38)
12) Loving Vincent (3.37)
13) First Reformed (3.33)
14) A Fantastic Woman (3.32)
15) First They Killed My Father (3.27)
16) Downsizing (3.07)

The single most rated film was Darkest Hour which had 35 respondents rate it.

The Peeps response probably bodes well for Oscar chances for Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour.  Battle of the Sexes may be in some trouble Oscar-wise.

I was struck at how The People reacted to big time films from big name film makers as Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father, Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck and Alexander Payne's Downsizing all finished in the bottom half of the list.

I'll have The Composite Telluride, the combination of The Peeps and The Pros in Monday's blog post.  I might note that The Composite may now be a better indicator of possible Oscar success than the stand alone People's ratings have been.


OFFICIAL DOWNSIZING TRAILER

After screening at Telluride Venice and Toronto Alexander Payne's Downsizing and Paramount released a trailer for the film this week.  Here it is from YouTube:

And a story about the trailer's release from Indiewire.



AWARDS DAILY OSCAR PODCASTS HAVE BEGUN

Sasha Stone has started recording and posting the Awards Daily Oscar Podcasts for the coming season.  The first two are up with yours truly making an appearance on the first one recorded in Telluride (and also a special appearance from both my wife, Kristy, and a guy named Guillermo Del Toro.  That podcast is here. 

I show up around the 19 minute mark and Del Toro follows right after.

The second podcast gets to the business of the season and was recorded after Telluride and features not only Stone but also Mark Johnson of Awards Circuit and Tomris Laffly who freelances for many publications including Film Journal and Film School Rejects.

That podcast is linked here.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE OSCAR SUBMISSIONS

Two TFF #44 films have already been named by their host countries for consideration for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar.  Chile has submitted Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman and Lebanon has submitted Ziad Douieri's The Insult.

A number of other films have also been announced with many more scheduled to be named in the next couple of weeks.

Awards Watch has a very good article up that has an up to date list of films as well as a schedule for the rest of September for FLF Oscar submissions.

Check that article here.


ANGELINA JOLIE'S FILM GETS AN OSCAR QUALIFYING RUN

The Wrap reports that Netflix will open Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father will get a contemporaneous theatrical release in a number of U.S. cities this week coinciding with its availability on the streaming service.

The film will screen in Los Angeles and New York as well as eight other major markets on Friday.

The Wrap's story is here.


And that's going to do it for this Thursday.  Come back for Monday's post which will include the 2017 Composite Telluride Film Ratings that combine the ratings from both the people and the professionals.  I've been doing this since 2013 and the film that has topped the Composite Poll has won the Best Picture Oscar each year.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Professionals Telluride / It's Time for the Switch / Guillermo Wins Venice / Rate the FIlms of TFF #44

Good Monday to all...


THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

Here's is your 2017 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival.  Ten industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 0-5 scale.  They were:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Tomris Laffly/Film Journal
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous


15 films earned enough votes to make this year's poll of The Professionals.  The top rated film:  Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water with a 4.5 average.  Here's the complete list with their averaged rating:

1) The Shape of Water (4.5)
2) (Tie) Faces Places (4.25)
2) (Tie) Loveless (4.25)
2) (Tie) The Rider (4.25)
5) Lady Bird (4.20)
6) First Reformed (4.0)
7) Battle of the Sexes (3.95)
8) Darkest Hour (3.85)
9) Hostiles (3.79)
10) First They Killed My Father (3.78)
11) Loving Vincent (3.63)
12) Lean on Pete (3.50)
13) Wonderstruck (3.25)
14) Downsizing (3.10)
15) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (2.60)

Last year The Pros had Moonlight on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5


I'll have The People's Telluride up on Thursday and the Composite Ratings of both Pros and Peeps next Monday.  Speaking of which...



IT'S TIME FOR THE SHIFT

Today marks the annual transition back to MTFBs "normal" publication schedule.  The blog will post twice a week, with rare exceptions, on Mondays and Thursdays.  Today also marks the turn toward this space becoming what I used to refer as The Film Awards Clearinghouse,  From now until Oscar night, I'll be focused most of the time on the awards prospects for the films that played as a part of the TFF #44 program.  You can always check here for the latest news about Oscar, Golden Globes, Critics awards as well as other precursors as we move through the awards season.


GUILLERMO WINS IN VENICE

The Venice Film Fest drew to a close this weekend and TFF #44 film The Shape of Water was named the best film in the competition section winning The Golden Lion.  Other TFF films got into the awards act as well in Italy with Foxtrot winning The Silver Lion.  Kamel El Basha won Best Actor for The Insult and Lean on Pete's Charlie Plummer was named best young actor.

Complete results of the awards at Venice are here from Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net.


That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday including The People's Telluride film ratings.  What did YOU think of the films that played?  YOU CAN STILL BE COUNTED BY RATING BEFORE 5:00PM TOMORROW.

 Send ratings in any of the following methids:


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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More Musings on Toronto's Latest / Telluride's 20th Festival / Battle Goes to Britain

It's Thursday, August 17th...14 days until The SHOW!


MORE MUSINGS ON TORONTO'S LATEST

Tuesday, the Toronto International Film Festival announced what Indiewire said was their final set of films for their 2017 edition and as a result we got more indications about films that are likely to play at Telluride over Labor Day weekend.

Based on their categorization as Canadian Premieres it seems that we can probably add five films to the TFF #44 list:

First Reformed from Paul Schrader
Foxtrot from Samuel Maoz
The Insult from Ziad Doueiri
Lean on Pete from Andrew Haigh
Loveless from Andrey Zvyagintsev

The new info also seems to confirm that The Other Side of Hope and Visages/Villages will play Telluride.

Some films that I have been tracking fell by the wayside if their premiere status is accurate including:

Chappaquiddick
Happy End
Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Molly's Game
Redoubtable

I was particularly dismayed that Aaron Sorkin's Molly's Game  won't be at T-ride and still, despite its modest response at Cannes, I was surprised that Michael Haneke's Happy End will not be at TFF #44.

Our "possible" film list has gotten much smaller now:

The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
Final Portrait
L'amant Double
Marshall
Mary Magdalene
Our Souls at Night
The Snowman
Wonder
You Were never Really Here


Form this list perhaps one or two films might still show up on Telluride's program and for my money the two that are most likely are You Were Never Really Here and L'amant Double.

Finally, I'm feeling a little better as we get down to this last two weeks before the fest.  after a couple of years where my initial guesse haven't been terribly prescient, it looks like I was better this year. My success level with that first Ten Bets in the past few years has been:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10

Yes.  3 of 10 last year.  My average over that time span was naming 5.5 films correctly that would eventually make the TFF lineup.

This year is better.  Here's this year's first Ten Bets from back on June 30th with what appear to be correct guesses are marked with ***:

1) Loveless***
2) A Fantastic Woman***
3) Wonderstruck***
4) Visages/Villages***
5) The Florida Project
6) Downsizing***
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) 120 BPM
9) The Rider***
10) Battle of the Sexes***

7 of 10 with two misses: The Florida Project and 120 BPM

You Were Never Really There is still up in the air.  I'm of a mind that it will play TFF #44.

Additionally, I had Lean on Pete and Loving Vincent in the list of other possibles.  So maybe I'm getting back to a bit more wisdom.

TELLURIDE'S 20TH FESTIVAL

Here's another installment in my ongoing section of revisiting the history of the Telluride Film Festival.  Today, as we continue to go back in time, we have a look at TFF #20 which ran Sept. 3-6, 1993.

Guest Director: John Boorman

Tributes: Ken Loach, Jennifer Jason Leigh and John Alton

SHOWS:

Abraham's Valley
The Ark
Blue (Jarman)
Blue (Kieslowski)
Bonne Chance
Border Incident
The Boys of St. Vincent
Chasing Butterflies
Clean, Shaven
Double Bind
Faraway, So Close
Farewell My Concubine
Fear and Desire
Flight of the Innocent
Gardiens de Phare
The Great Adventure
The Joy Luck Club
Kind of Blue
L627
The Last Stop
Love and Human Remains
Make Way For Tomorrow
Naked
The Piano
Point Blank
Raining Stones
Raw Deal
The Social Contract
Starting Place
Stella Polaris
Suture
Sylvester
T-Men
Time Has No Name
Upstage
The Wonderful, Horrible Life of Leni Riefenstahl

Guests:

Joan Chen
Henry Czerny
Darryl Hannah
Leo McGarey
Michael Stipe
Amy Tan
Bertrand Tavernier
David Thewlis
Wayne Wang
Wim Wenders

Among the Filmmakers of Tomorrow participants was Darryl Hannah with her short The Last Supper.



BATTLE GOES TO BRITAIN

The BFI/London Film Fest has announced that the American Express Gala this year will be the European Premiere of Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris' Battle of the Sexes starring Emma Stone and Steve Carrel.  I am fully expecting that Battle of the Sexes will be screening at TFF #44 in a couple of weeks.

The film follows the true story of the famed 1973 tennis match between Billie Jean King (Stone) and Bobby Riggs (Carrel).  The film also stars Andrea Riseborough, Elisabeth Shue, Alan Cumming and Sarah Silverman.

Here's the latest trailer for the film from YouTube:

Battle of the Sexes is distributed by Fox Searchlight and will be released domestically on Sept. 22nd.

Linked here is coverage from:

Deadline

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More tomorrow including TWENTY BETS for TFF #44.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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LATE BREAKING: Toronto Titles Today Offer New Telluride Clues

LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TITLES TODAY OFFER NEW TELLURIDE CLUES


Toronto's purported final announcement of titles today sheds light on films that we think are now newly added to our list of T-ride screenings or confirms others that we thought were going or reveals titles that we thought might play that will not.

TIFF announced further Galas, Special Presentations, Masters and Contemporary World Cinema titles earlier today.

Here's what we think we've learned based on the premiere status of the films named:

New films that appear headed to Telluride:

Foxtrot
Lean on Pete
The Insult
First Reformed
Loveless

Films that appear to be further confirmed for Telluride:

The Other Side of Hope
Visages/Villages

Films that WILL NOT BE PLAYING TELLURIDE:

Chappaquiddick
Molly's Game (disppointed about this)
Mark Felt-The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Redoubtable
Happy End

And films confirmed out that we already thought were out:

The Leisure Seeker
The Florida Project


More to come on Thursday...