OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE
After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations. That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.
The breakdown:
The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.
Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.
One nomination each for:
A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short
The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC.
The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.
As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor. Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.
I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.
As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction. Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.
My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot. My worst...missing Meryl Streep. Never bet against Streep.
Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.
The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.
As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor. Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.
I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.
As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction. Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.
My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot. My worst...missing Meryl Streep. Never bet against Streep.
Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.
In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.
Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by
Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.
Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.
Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.
GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE
Gold Derby has established their front runners.
The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2. Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.
Other early leaders in major categories are:
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water. Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5
The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.
That's your Thursday for MTFB. I'll have more for you on Monday. Have a great weekend!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
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