Oscar Update: Best Actor / TFF #47 Films Score at Montclair / Concrete Cowboy Rides to Netflix / Odds and Ends: Chicago 7 and Midnight Sky

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Sept. 24th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (1)

2) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

3) Gary Oldman/Mank (2)

4) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Tom Hanks/News of the World (3)

6) Riz Ahmed/The Sound of Metal (-)

7) Steven Yeun/Minari (-)

8) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (8)

9) Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon (7)

10) Colin Firth/Supernova (-)

Others: Bill Murray/On the Rocks, Daniel Kaluuya or LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah.

TFF #47 FILMS SCORE AT MONTCLAIR

Chloe Zhao'e Nomadland and Mohammad Rasoulof's  There Is No Evil were awarded major prizes at the conclusion of the Montclair Film Festival.  The winners were announced Mnday at the conclusion of the ninth annual event.

Nomadland was named winner of the audience award for a fiction feature and There Is No Evil won the jury award for non-fiction feature.

Complete coverage of all of the winners from the Montclair fest can be found linked here from Variety.

CONCRETE COWBOY RIDES TO NETFLIX

Ricky Staub's Concrete Cowboy, a selection of the "would have been" 47th Telluride Film Festival, has been acquired by Netflix.  Concrete Cowboy stars Idris Elba and was screened as a part of the Toronto International Film Festival.

Variety reports that the film will be released by Netflix at some point in 2021.

The IMDb description of the film is as follows:

"A teenager discovers the world of urban horseback riding when he moves in with his estranged father in North Philadelphia."

The Variety story about the acquisition is linked here.

ODDS AND ENDS

Here are a few other tidbits that I found interesting...

1)The Hollywood Reporter reports that the entire cast of Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7 will be campaigned as Supporting Actors:  The link to the THR story is here.

For my money look at Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Jeremy Strong, Mark Rylance and Frank Langella.

2) ShowBiz 411 reports that MGM has re-dated Leisl Tommy's Respect, which stars Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, for August 13, 2021 which means two things.  First, the move bumps the film and Hudson out of this year's Oscar race and second...the August date guarantees that the film will NOT be a part of a TFF #48 (if that's what it's referenced as) lineup.  I had Hudson at #3 in the Best Actress predictions in last Monday's post.

Here's the ShowBiz 411 story.

3) Trailer drops for George Clooney's Midnight Sky from Netflix.  Here it is via YouTube:

The film is scheduled for release on Netflix on Dec. 23rd.

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Screen Actors Guild Awards: Another Oscar Re-shuffle? / Rooney Mara Talks Carol / Feinberg's Latest Forecast

Good Monday and welcome to February!  We're down to less than four weeks in this Oscar season and the Best Picture race took another turn over the weekend...


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS: ANOTHER OSCAR RE-SHUFFLE?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out late Saturday night for both film and television work.  Tom McCarthy's Spotlight won the Best Ensemble Award besting The Big Short and possibly indicating a continuing tight battle for the Best Picture Oscar.  The Big Short was perceived by many Oscar experts as having pulled into a slight lead owing to its Producers Guild Award from last weekend.  A SAG win last for ensemble would have likely strengthened that view but the win for Spotlight has caused some re-evaluation yet again.

Add to all of this that the Directors Guild announces their award this coming weekend and it could very easily award neither McCarthy or The Big Short's Adam McKay.  Plausible cases can be made that any of the other DGA nominees might pick up the trophy: Inarritu/The Reverent, Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road or Scott/The Martian.  So, the DGA could provide a sign of clarity if either McKay or McCarthy should win, or confusion should any of those other three take the award.  Perhaps a Miller or Inarittu win get their films back near the top on the Best Picture speculation.  It'll be fun reading those tea leaves next Monday.

Meanwhile, in addition to Spotlight, other TFF #42 alumni picked up SAG Awards Saturday night as Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room and Idris Elba won Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation.

Non-TFF #42 winners were Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for The Revenant and Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl.  Mad Max:Fury Road picked up the award for Stunt Ensemble as it should have.

Honestly, for what's its worth, I still semi-believe Spotlight is going to win Best Picture on Oscar night.

I have linked complete coverage and analysis of The SAG results here from The Hollywood Reporter, The Film Stage, The Playlist and Deadline:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-spotlight-victory-confirms-860909

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-sag-winners-complete-list-856945/item/outstanding-performance-by-a-female-846007

http://thefilmstage.com/news/spotlight-leonardo-dicaprio-and-brie-larson-lead-2016-sag-award-winners/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sag-award-winners-spotlight-wins-best-ensemble-leonardo-dicaprio-idris-elba-brie-larson-are-also-winners-20160130

http://deadline.com/2016/01/sag-awards-analysis-a-big-night-for-netflix-diversity-repeat-winners-and-oscar-front-runners-hammond-1201693646/



ROONEY MARA TALKS CAROL

Best Supporting Actress nominee Rooney Mara talks about Carol in this half hour YouTube video proffered by The Weinstein Company last week.  Enjoy!

Rooney Mara on Carol via YouTube

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, Scott Feinberg posted his latest Oscar prognostications late last week and they came prior to Saturday night's SAG results.

Feinberg's analysis suggests that TFF #42 films are positioned thusly:

Best Pic: Spotlight trailing The Big Short and Room is in his #5 spot.

Director: McCarthy/Spotlight is #4 and Abrahamson/Room is #5

Actor: Fassbender/Steve Jobs is #5

Actress: Larson/Room at #1 and Rampling/45 Years at #3 and Blanchett/Carol at #4

Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Spotlight at #2

Supporting Actress: Mara/Carol #3, McAdams/Spotlight at #4 and Winslet/Steve Jobs at #5

Adapted Screenplay: Room at #3, Carol at #5

Original Screenplay: Spotlight at #1

Animated Feature: Anomalisa is at #2
Documentary Feature: The Look of Silence is #4 and Winter on Fire is at #5
Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul at #1
Cinematography: Carol at #4
Costumes: Carol at #1
Film Editing: Spotlight at #5
Original Score: Carol at #4


If Scott is right TFF #42 films pick up four Oscars on Feb. 28.


Come back for more on Thursday!

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There is Another...Critic's Collection for Telluride / More Looks at Post_TFF Oscar Analysis / 200,000 Milestone / Rate Your Films

Good Thursday Everyone...


THERE IS ANOTHER...CRITIC'S COLLECTION FOR TELLURIDE

As I finish collecting ratings from the dozen or so industry professionals about their reactions to films that screened at this year's festival, Indiewire/Criticwire has posted a critic's poll of their own.  The Criticwire survey asked its panel to rank the films they saw from first to fifth.

The survey also asked the respondents to make decisions in a number of other categories: Lead and Supporting Performances and Director.  Leaders in those categories were:

Lead: Brie Larson/Room
Supporting: Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation
Direction: Laszlo Nemes/Son of Saul
Narrative Feature: Son of Saul

Among the critics that were a part of the poll are several which are also playing in MTFB's Professionals Telluride; Nick Allen, Alex Billington, Gregory Ellwood, David Ehrlich, Eric Kohn and Tomris Laffly.

Take a look at the complete survey here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/critics-pick-the-best-films-and-performances-from-telluride-2015-20150909


MORE LOOKS AT POST-TFF OSCAR ANALYSIS

I'm continuing today to provide readers links to articles/posts from Oscar prognosticators who are gazing into their crystal balls and re-evaluating their preliminary views in light of reactions to the screenings of films at last week's TFF.

Indiewire's Peter Knegt takes a look at seven films that got an Oscar boost here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-7-films-that-jumped-into-the-oscar-race-this-past-week-20150908


And Nigel M. Smith reviews the Oscar field post-Telluride for The Guardian here:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/sep/09/telluride-oscar-award-race-2016?CMP=twt_a-film_b-gdnfilm


200,000 MILESTONE

Sometime yesterday Michael's Telluride Film Blog was the recipient of its 200,000th view.  Yeesh.  I know that's small potatoes when compared to, for example, Indiewire but it boggles my mind that this space has been looked at that many times by that many people.

MTFB started in late summer 2008 and crossed the 100,000 view threshold on Sept. 16, 2013.  That means that it took five years to get to that first 100K and almost exactly two years to get to the next 200K

Thanks for reading, everyone.  I hope you find this helpful and useful.  Next goal is a quarter of a million views!

That's it for Thursday...

EXCEPT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT YOU NEED TO RATE YOUR TELLURIDE FILMS!

The People's Telluride publication is just a week away.

The Fifth Estate Trailer/Werner and Errol/Mandela Teaser Trailer

Good Wednesday Everyone...

THE FIFTH ESTATE TRAILER

Much as "12 Years a Slave" did the other day, we had a trailer drop late last night for Bill Condon's "The Fifth Estate" starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Daniel Bruhl and Laura Linney.

I have thought this had promise and some Telluride possibilities because of Condon's and Linney's presence and I still do.  After seeing the trailer, I'm even more eager.  Here it is via YouTube:

I have also linked to a number of posts from early this morning that included the trailer as well:

The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-trailer-for-the-fifth-estate-starring-benedict-cumberbatch-as-julian-assange-20130717

FirstShowing:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2013/benedict-cumberbatch-as-julian-assange-in-the-fifth-estate-trailer/

Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/fifth-estate-wikileaks-official-trailer-pictures/

Movie City News:
http://moviecitynews.com/2013/07/trailer-the-fifth-estate-aka-the-wikileaks-movie/

"The Fifth Estate" opens Oct. 11th or 18th depending on which website you believe.

WERNER AND ERROL

TFF regulars and board of advisor members Werner Herzog and Errol Morris have been making the rounds to promote the Josh Oppenheimer's documentary "The Act of Killing" which showed prominently at last year's festival.  The two men acted as producers of that film.  Here they are talking about that film with Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/werner-herzog-errol-morris-act-of-killing-video-interview-vice

I fully expect both men to be a part of Telluride's 40th celebration.  Herzog gets the new Town Park/Hockey Pavilion venue named in his honor (I'm still pushing for the nickname of the new venue to be "The Zog").  I've been thinking that it will be christened with a screening of a restored print of his "Aguirre: The Wrath of God".  Actually, it wouldn't surprise me to see TFF program an entire Herzog retrospective during the course of the five day festival.

Meanwhile, Morris has a new documentary under his belt: "The Unknown Known: The Life and Times of Donald Rumsfeld".  I fully expect that to be a part of this year's lineup.

Morris has a couple of other things on his plate.  He is supposed to have been working on a narrative feature entitled "Freezing People is Easy" but word came this week that he is set to direct "Hollland, Michigan".  This film is described as a "suburban thriller with black humor".  Thompson on Hollywood has that story as well:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/errol-morris-to-direct-narrative-feature-holland-michigan


MANDELA TEASER

I wrote yesterday that The Weinstein Company had a number of prospects going into the awards season.  One of those is "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom" featuring Idris Elba in the title role.  This past weekend a teaser trailer was released:

I have also included a couple of stories about the trailer from The Playlist and The Wrap:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-teaser-trailer-for-biopic-mandela-long-walk-to-freedom-starring-idris-elba-20130712

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/mandela-long-walk-freedom-trailer-touts-message-great-man-video-102686

"Mandela" was directed by Justin Chadwick whose "The First Grader" appeared at Telluride in 2010.


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More tomorrow...